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At least 361 records · Page 20

Collisional records in LL-chondrites

One third of all the LL-chondrites have exposure ages of approx. 15 Ma and were exposed to cosmic rays following a collisional break-up. The probability that the 15-Ma peak represents a random signal is calculated to be less than 2%. Considerably lower probabilities are obtained if only LL5s or subgroups of high Ar-40 retention are used. Furthermore, we show that the peak shape agrees with statistical constraints obtained from multiple analyses of samples from the St. Severin LL6-chondrites. The frequency in and out of the 15-Ma peak varies significantly for different petrographic LL-types. The radiogenic Ar-40 retention systematics (most LL-chondrites retained Ar-40(sub rad) shows that no substantial heat pulse resulted in the 15-Ma collisional event. Interestingly, smaller exposure age clusters at approx. 28 Ma and approx. 40 Ma match up well with clusters in the histogram of L-chondrites. The distribution of LL-exposure ages is not consistent with that expected for a quasi-continuous injection of LL material into a resonance zone of the asteroid belt. The near absence of exposure ages shorter than 8 Ma either indicates a lack of recent collisional events or considerably longer transfer times than inferred from dynamical considerations.

Graf, Thomas↗

Spatial cross-correlation of Antarctic Sea ice and seabed topography

A time series of derived sea ice concentrations as observed about Antarctica by the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) satellite in 1983 is considered. The degree of spatial cross correlation between these data and seabed topography is quantified. The approach is to implement a statistical image processing filter designed to extract local patterns of spatial cross correlation over the entire sea ice field as it undergoes daily changes. Throughout the sea ice, it was found that large scale variations in sea ice concentration correlate systematically with variations in the topography of the seabed. Generally speaking, high concentrations of sea ice occur over deep ocean, whereas areas of encavement, early dissipation and polynya formation develop over topographic features of high elevation. The latter was studied in detail with respect to the features Maud Rise, Astrid Ridge and the continental shelf in the Cosmonaut and Ross Seas. In each case, it is shown that an encavement in sea ice, a polynya, or both develops in the vicinity of the feature in question. As these results are quantified in terms of spatial cross correlation, a potential role is inferred for seabed topography in such fluctuations in the sea ice about Antarctica.

Deveaux, Richard D.↗

A Comment on the Suspected Solar Neutrino-Solar Activity Connection

Recently, it has been proposed that there exists a highly statistically significant (at greater than or equal to 98% level of confidence) relationship between Ar-37 production rate (viz., solar neutrinos) and the Ap geomagnetic index (viz., solar particles), based on the (chi)-square goodness-of-fit test and correlation analysis, for the interval 1970-1990. While a relationship between the two parameters, indeed, seems to be discernible, the strength of the relationship has been overstated. Instead of being significant at the afore-mentioned level of confidence, the relationship is found to be significant at only greater than or equal to 95% level of confidence, based on Yates' modification to the (chi)-square test for 2 x 2 contingency tables. Likewise, while correlation analysis yields a value of r = 0.2691, it is important to note that such a value suggests that only about 7% of the variance can be 'explained' by the inferred correlation and that the remaining 93% of the variance must be attributed to other sources.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

A comment on the suspected solar neutrino -- solar activity connection

Recently, it has been proposed that there exists a highly statistically significant (at greater than or equal to 98% level of confidence) relationship between Ar-37 production rate (namely, solar neutrinos) and the Ap geomagnetic index (namely, solar particles), based on the chi-square goodness-of-fit test and correlation analysis, for the interval 1970-1990. While a relationship between the two parameters, indeed, seems to be discernible, the strength of the relationship has been overstated. Instead of being significant at the afore-mentioned level of confidence, the relationship is found to be significant at only greater than or equal to 95% level of confidence, based on Yates' modification to the chi-square test for 2 x 2 contingency tables. Likewise, while correlation analysis yields a value of r = 0.2691, it is important to note that such a value suggests that only about 7% of the variance can be 'explained' by the inferred correlation and that the remaining 93% of the variance must be attributed to other sources.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\dgc\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because models tend to have more difficulty in correctly predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of cloud-allowing forecasts become available.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

Physical Validation of TRMM TMI and PR Monthly Rain Products Over Oklahoma

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) provides monthly rainfall estimates using data collected by the TRMM satellite. These estimates cover a substantial fraction of the earth's surface. The physical validation of TRMM estimates involves corroborating the accuracy of spaceborne estimates of areal rainfall by inferring errors and biases from ground-based rain estimates. The TRMM error budget consists of two major sources of error: retrieval and sampling. Sampling errors are intrinsic to the process of estimating monthly rainfall and occur because the satellite extrapolates monthly rainfall from a small subset of measurements collected only during satellite overpasses. Retrieval errors, on the other hand, are related to the process of collecting measurements while the satellite is overhead. One of the big challenges confronting the TRMM validation effort is how to best estimate these two main components of the TRMM error budget, which are not easily decoupled. This four-year study computed bulk sampling and retrieval errors for the TRMM microwave imager (TMI) and the precipitation radar (PR) by applying a technique that sub-samples gauge data at TRMM overpass times. Gridded monthly rain estimates are then computed from the monthly bulk statistics of the collected samples, providing a sensor-dependent gauge rain estimate that is assumed to include a TRMM equivalent sampling error. The sub-sampled gauge rain estimates are then used in conjunction with the monthly satellite and gauge (without sub- sampling) estimates to decouple retrieval and sampling errors. The computed mean sampling errors for the TMI and PR were 5.9% and 7.796, respectively, in good agreement with theoretical predictions. The PR year-to-year retrieval biases exceeded corresponding TMI biases, but it was found that these differences were partially due to negative TMI biases during cold months and positive TMI biases during warm months.

Fisher, Brad L.↗

Evaluation of the Impacts of Biomass Burning Aerosols on the NASA GEOS Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Emission sources of trace gases and aerosol particles in the South American (SA)and African (Af) continents have a strong seasonal and space variability associated with the extensive vegetation fires activities. In both continents, during the austral winter, the fires affect mainly tropical forest and savannah-type biomes and are mostly associated with deforestation and agricultural/pasture land management. Smoke aerosol particles, on average, contribute to at least 90% of the total aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the visible spectrum in the case of the South America regional smoke. Smoke aerosols also act as cloud condensation nuclei affecting cloud microphysics properties and therefore, changing the radiation budget, hydrological cycle and global circulation patterns over disturbed areas (Kaufman, 1995; Rosenfeld, 1999; Andreae,et al., 2004; Koren et al., 2004, Zhang, 2008; Ott et al., 2010; Randles et al., 2013). This study aims to evaluate and quantify the impact of including a comprehensive emission field of biomass burning aerosol on the performance of a seasonal climate forecast system, not only regarding the AOD itself but mainly on the meteorological state variable (e.g., precipitation and temperature). To address the questions put above, we designed two numerical experiments: 1- named"AERO_CTL" which applies the Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED) emissions estimated with intra-diurnal variation (hereafter, BBE), and 2- named "AERO_CLM" where the sourcee mission is based on a climatology of the QFED emissions, with only monthly variation(hereafter, BBCLIM). Hindcast simulations were produced using the Goddard Earth ObservingSystem global circulation model, version 5, sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS5-S2S) system with a nominal spatial resolution of 56km (Rienecker et al., 2008). In both experiments, the aerosol feedbacks from cloud developments and radiation interactions were accounted. The two experiments consisted of 4 members each and ran from June to November spanning over the years 2000 to 2015. Model performance was evaluated by calculating statistical metrics on the mean area of SA and Af. Our results demonstrated that the skill model in predicting AOD is significantly improve when BBE source emission is applied over SA, but not over the Afcontinent. Over SA, the correlation between the AERO_CTL model configuration and MERRA-2 is 0.93 (R2= 0.86, RMS=0.02, BIAS=0.01), while the AERO_CLM model presents a value of0.81 (R2= 0.65, RMS=0.04, BIAS=0.06). However, the AERO_CTL experiment better represents the inter-annual variability of the AOS in both regions. The gain of the skill in predicting the AOD by the AERO_CTL experiment is also seen in some meteorological variables. We observed an increase in the model skill in predicting the 2-meter temperature and precipitation of up to 0.3 for the AERO_CTL experiment in comparison to the AERO_CLM. AERO_CLM. According to the analyzed hindcast, we inferred that representing the BBE more realistically implies in a significant gain of skills in the seasonal climate forecasting over SA and Af continents.

Aerosol↗

Atomic Data and Spectral Line Intensities for Ne III

A number of satellites and rockets have been launched to observe radiation from the Sun and other astrophysical objects. Line radiation is emitted when the electron impact excited levels decay to the lower levels by photon emission. From this radiation, the physical parameters such as electron temperature and density of the astrophysical plasma, elemental abundance, and opacity can be inferred. Ne III lines have been observed in H II regions, Ne-rich filaments in supernovae, and planetary nebulae. The allowed line at 489.50 Angstroms due to the transition 2s(sup 2) 2p(sup 5) (sup 3) P2 (goes to) 2s(sup 2)2p(sup 4)(sup 3)P2 has been identified in the solar spectrum by Vernazza and Reeves using Skylab observations. Other Ne III lines in the solar EUV spectrum have been reported by Thomas and Neupert based on observations from the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) instrument. Atomic data for Ne III have been calculated by using a set of programs developed at, University College, London. The Superstructure and Distorted Wave (DW) programs have been updated over the years. In the Superstructure program, configuration interaction can be taken into account and radial functions are calculated in a modified Thomas-Fermi-Amaldi potential. This is a statistical potential and depends on parameters lambda 1 which are determined by optimizing the weighted sum of term energies. They are found to be lambda(sub 0)=1.2467, lambda(sub 1)=1.1617, and lambda(sub 2)=1.0663. The relativistic corrections are included by using the Breit-Pauli Hamiltonian as a perturbation to the nonrelativistic Hamiltonian. The same potential is used to calculate reactance matrices in the DW approximation in LS coupling. Collision strengths in intermediate coupling are obtained by using term coupling coefficients obtained from the Superstructure program. In this calculation, the configurations used are 2s(sup 2)2p(sup 4), 2s2p(sup 5), 2s(sup 2)2p(sup 3)3s, 2s(sup 2)p(sup 3)3d giving rise to 57 fine-structure levels in intermediate coupling.

Bhatia, A. K.↗

The HOSTS Survey-Exozodiacal Dust Measurements for 30 Stars

The Hunt for Observable Signatures of Terrestrial Systems survey searches for dust near the habitable zones (HZs) around nearby, bright main-sequence stars. We use nulling interferometry in the N band to suppress the bright stellar light and to probe for low levels of HZ dust around the 30 stars observed so far. Our overall detection rate is 18%, including four new detections, among which are the first three around Sun-like stars and the first two around stars without any previously known circumstellar dust. The inferred occurrence rates are comparable for early-type and Sun-like stars, but decrease from 60(sup +16)(sub -21)% for stars with previously detected cold dust to 8(sup +10)(sub -3)% for stars without such excess, confirming earlier results at higher sensitivity. For completed observations on individual stars, our sensitivity is five to ten times better than previous results. Assuming a lognormal excess luminosity function, we put upper limits on the median HZ dust level of 13 zodis (95% confidence) for a sample of stars without cold dust and of 26 zodis when focusing on Sun-like stars without cold dust. However, our data suggest that a more complex luminosity function may be more appropriate. For stars without detectable Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI) excess, our upper limits are almost reduced by a factor of two, demonstrating the strength of LBTI target vetting for future exo-Earth imaging missions. Our statistics are limited so far, and extending the survey is critical to informing the design of future exo-Earth imaging surveys.

The Hunt for Observable Signatures of Terrestrial ↗

Regression Bias in using Solar Wind Measurements

Simultaneous solar wind measurements from the solar wind monitors, WIND and ACE, differ due to the spatial and temporal structure of the solar wind. Correlation studies that use these measurements as input may infer an incorrect correlation due to uncertainties arising from this spatial and temporal structure, especially at extreme and rare solar wind values. In particular, regression analysis will lead to a regression function whose slope is biased towards the mean value of the measurement parameter. This article demonstrates this regression bias by comparing simultaneous ACE and WIND solar wind measurements. A non-linear regression analysis between them leads to a perception of underestimation of extreme values of one measurement on average over the other. Using numerical experiments, we show that popular regression analysis techniques such as linear least-squares, orthogonal least-squares, and non-linear regression are not immune to this bias. Hence while using solar wind parameters as an independent variable in a correlation or regression analysis, random uncertainty in the independent variable can create unintended biases in the response of the dependent variable. More generally, the regression to the mean effect can impact both event-based, statistical studies of magnetospheric response to solar wind forcing.

magnetosphere↗

Optimal Estimation Framework for Ocean Color Atmospheric Correction and Pixel-level Uncertainty Quantification

Ocean color remote sensing requires compensation for atmospheric scattering and absorption (aerosol, Rayleigh, and trace gases), referred to as atmospheric correction (AC). AC allows inference of parameters such as spectrally resolved remote sensing reflectance ( R rs )(λ) ; sr 1 ) at the ocean surface from the top-of-atmosphere reflectance. Often, the uncertainty of this process is not fully explored. Bayesian inference techniques provide a simultaneous AC and uncertainty assessment via a full posterior distribution of the relevant variables, given the prior distribution of those variables and the radiative transfer (RT) likelihood function. Given uncertainties in the algorithm inputs, the Bayesian framework enables better constraints on the AC process by using the complete spectral information compared to traditional approaches that use only a subset of bands for AC. This paper investigates a Bayesian inference research method (Optimal Estimation, OE) for ocean color AC by simultaneously retrieving atmospheric and ocean properties using all visible and near-infrared spectral bands. The OE algorithm analytically approximates the posterior distribution of parameters based on normality assumptions and provides a potentially viable operational algorithm with a reduced computational expense. We developed a Neural Network (NN) RT forward model look-up-table-based emulator to increase algorithm efficiency further and thus speed up the likelihood computations. We then applied the OE algorithm to synthetic data and observations from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua spacecraft. We compared the R rs )(λ) retrieval and its uncertainty estimates from the OE method with in-situ validation data from the SeaWiFS Bio-optical Archive and Storage System (SeaBASS) and Aerosol Robotic Network Ocean Color (AERONET-OC) datasets. The OE algorithm improved R rs )(λ) estimates relative to the NASA standard operational algorithm by improving all statistical metrics at 443, 555, and 667 nm. Unphysical negative R rs )(λ) , which often appear in complex water conditions, was reduced by a factor of 3. The OE-derived pixel-level R rs )(λ) uncertainty estimates were also assessed relative to in-situ data and were shown to have skill.

Atmospheric correction↗

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗

Monthly Oceanic Rainfall Derived from Space-Borne Microwave Data

A technique for estimating monthly oceanic rainfall rate using multi-channel microwave measurements has been developed. This technique is applied to the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data since 1987 to infer monthly rainfall for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). A modified version of this algorithm is now being applied to the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. There are three prominent features of this algorithm. First, the knowledge of the form of the rainfall intensity probability density function used to augment the measurements. Second, utilizing a linear combination of the 19.35 and 22.235 GHz channels to deemphasize the effect of water vapor. Third, an objective technique has been developed to estimate the rain layer thickness from the 19.35 and 22.23 5 GHz brightness temperature histograms, TMI data with better spatial resolution and 24 hour sampling (vs. sun-synchronized sampling, which is limited to two narrow intervals of local solar time for DMSP satellites) prompt us to study the similarity and difference between these two rainfall estimates. One year of rainfall data (January to December 1998) are used in this study. The mean differences of these two rain estimates are typically less than 15%. Statistical tests are administrated to evaluate the differences between rainfall estimates from SSM/I and TMI data. Differences between TMI and SSM/I rain estimates are discussed in the context of radiative transfer calculations and rainfall estimate algorithm.

Chang, Alfred T. C.↗

Data Fusion for Enhanced Aircraft Engine Prognostics and Health Management

Aircraft gas-turbine engine data is available from a variety of sources, including on-board sensor measurements, maintenance histories, and component models. An ultimate goal of Propulsion Health Management (PHM) is to maximize the amount of meaningful information that can be extracted from disparate data sources to obtain comprehensive diagnostic and prognostic knowledge regarding the health of the engine. Data fusion is the integration of data or information from multiple sources for the achievement of improved accuracy and more specific inferences than can be obtained from the use of a single sensor alone. The basic tenet underlying the data/ information fusion concept is to leverage all available information to enhance diagnostic visibility, increase diagnostic reliability and reduce the number of diagnostic false alarms. This report describes a basic PHM data fusion architecture being developed in alignment with the NASA C-17 PHM Flight Test program. The challenge of how to maximize the meaningful information extracted from disparate data sources to obtain enhanced diagnostic and prognostic information regarding the health and condition of the engine is the primary goal of this endeavor. To address this challenge, NASA Glenn Research Center, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, and Pratt & Whitney have formed a team with several small innovative technology companies to plan and conduct a research project in the area of data fusion, as it applies to PHM. Methodologies being developed and evaluated have been drawn from a wide range of areas including artificial intelligence, pattern recognition, statistical estimation, and fuzzy logic. This report will provide a chronology and summary of the work accomplished under this research contract.

Volponi, Al↗

Automated Instrumentation, Monitoring and Visualization of PVM Programs Using AIMS

We present views and analysis of the execution of several PVM codes for Computational Fluid Dynamics on a network of Sparcstations, including (a) NAS Parallel benchmarks CG and MG (White, Alund and Sunderam 1993); (b) a multi-partitioning algorithm for NAS Parallel Benchmark SP (Wijngaart 1993); and (c) an overset grid flowsolver (Smith 1993). These views and analysis were obtained using our Automated Instrumentation and Monitoring System (AIMS) version 3.0, a toolkit for debugging the performance of PVM programs. We will describe the architecture, operation and application of AIMS. The AIMS toolkit contains (a) Xinstrument, which can automatically instrument various computational and communication constructs in message-passing parallel programs; (b) Monitor, a library of run-time trace-collection routines; (c) VK (Visual Kernel), an execution-animation tool with source-code clickback; and (d) Tally, a tool for statistical analysis of execution profiles. Currently, Xinstrument can handle C and Fortran77 programs using PVM 3.2.x; Monitor has been implemented and tested on Sun 4 systems running SunOS 4.1.2; and VK uses X11R5 and Motif 1.2. Data and views obtained using AIMS clearly illustrate several characteristic features of executing parallel programs on networked workstations: (a) the impact of long message latencies; (b) the impact of multiprogramming overheads and associated load imbalance; (c) cache and virtual-memory effects; and (4significant skews between workstation clocks. Interestingly, AIMS can compensate for constant skew (zero drift) by calibrating the skew between a parent and its spawned children. In addition, AIMS' skew-compensation algorithm can adjust timestamps in a way that eliminates physically impossible communications (e.g., messages going backwards in time). Our current efforts are directed toward creating new views to explain the observed performance of PVM programs. Some of the features planned for the near future include: (a) ConfigView, showing the physical topology of the virtual machine, inferred using specially formatted IP (Internet Protocol) packets; and (b) LoadView, synchronous animation of PVM-program execution and resource-utilization patterns.

Mehra, Pankaj↗

Remote Sensing Data from CLARET: A Prototype Cart Data Set

A data set containing radiation, meteorological, and cloud sensor observations is documented. It was prepared for use by the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and other interested scientists. These data are a precursor of the types of data that ARM Cloud And Radiation Testbed (CART) sites will provide. The data are from the Cloud Lidar And Radar Exploratory Test (CLARET) conducted by the Wave Propagation Laboratory during autumn 1989 in the Denver-Boulder area of Colorado primarily for the purpose of developing new cloud-sensing techniques on cirrus. After becoming aware of this experiment, ARM scientists requested archival of subsets or the data to assist in the developing ARM program. Five CLARET cases were selected: two with cirrus, one with stratus, one with mixed-phase clouds, and one with clear skies. The cases range from 2 to 9.5 h in length. A pyranometer, pyrgeometer, pyrheliometer, and an infrared radiometer constituted the ensemble of instruments that provided surface radiation data. A lidar, radar, and ceilometer observed the cloud geometrical structure, and visual reports and all-sky camera observations were assimilated to provide cloud cover data. Radiosondes, wind profiler, RASS (profiling virtual temperature), microwave radiometers (observing column integrated liquid water and water vapor), and standard surface measurements provided meteorological data. Satellite data from the stratus case and one cirrus case were analyzed for statistics on cloud cover and top height. The main body of the selected data are available on diskette from the Wave Propagation Laboratory or Los Alamos National Laboratory. In addition to documenting the data set, this report describes CLARET and gives a bibliography of publications associated with the project. Some preliminary results of CLARET' research are also summarized. Simultaneous CO 2 lidar and radar backscatter measurements were shown to provide estimates of the effective radius of ice particles. Simultaneous radar and infrared radiometer data appear useful for estimating column-integrated numbers and average sizes of ice cloud particles. Ice water content obtained with this method compared favorably with values from another empirical technique using radar data alone. Depolarization of the CO 2 lidar signal from ice clouds was surprisingly small, suggesting that calculation of backscatter from nonspherical particles for this lidar is a tractable problem. Examples are also cited of CO 2 lidar measurements of the effective radius of water cloud drop size distributions and of inference of the size of pristine ice crystals that assume a particular orientation in the air. These parameters are all important to radiative transfer through clouds.

Clouds (Meteorology)↗

Automated Instrumentation, Monitoring and Visualization of PVM Programs Using AIMS

We present views and analysis of the execution of several PVM (Parallel Virtual Machine) codes for Computational Fluid Dynamics on a networks of Sparcstations, including: (1) NAS Parallel Benchmarks CG and MG; (2) a multi-partitioning algorithm for NAS Parallel Benchmark SP; and (3) an overset grid flowsolver. These views and analysis were obtained using our Automated Instrumentation and Monitoring System (AIMS) version 3.0, a toolkit for debugging the performance of PVM programs. We will describe the architecture, operation and application of AIMS. The AIMS toolkit contains: (1) Xinstrument, which can automatically instrument various computational and communication constructs in message-passing parallel programs; (2) Monitor, a library of runtime trace-collection routines; (3) VK (Visual Kernel), an execution-animation tool with source-code clickback; and (4) Tally, a tool for statistical analysis of execution profiles. Currently, Xinstrument can handle C and Fortran 77 programs using PVM 3.2.x; Monitor has been implemented and tested on Sun 4 systems running SunOS 4.1.2; and VK uses XIIR5 and Motif 1.2. Data and views obtained using AIMS clearly illustrate several characteristic features of executing parallel programs on networked workstations: (1) the impact of long message latencies; (2) the impact of multiprogramming overheads and associated load imbalance; (3) cache and virtual-memory effects; and (4) significant skews between workstation clocks. Interestingly, AIMS can compensate for constant skew (zero drift) by calibrating the skew between a parent and its spawned children. In addition, AIMS' skew-compensation algorithm can adjust timestamps in a way that eliminates physically impossible communications (e.g., messages going backwards in time). Our current efforts are directed toward creating new views to explain the observed performance of PVM programs. Some of the features planned for the near future include: (1) ConfigView, showing the physical topology of the virtual machine, inferred using specially formatted IP (Internet Protocol) packets: and (2) LoadView, synchronous animation of PVM-program execution and resource-utilization patterns.

Mehra, Pankaj↗

Development of an Information Fusion System for Engine Diagnostics and Health Management

Aircraft gas-turbine engine data are available from a variety of sources including on-board sensor measurements, maintenance histories, and component models. An ultimate goal of Propulsion Health Management (PHM) is to maximize the amount of meaningful information that can be extracted from disparate data sources to obtain comprehensive diagnostic and prognostic knowledge regarding the health of the engine. Data Fusion is the integration of data or information from multiple sources, to achieve improved accuracy and more specific inferences than can be obtained from the use of a single sensor alone. The basic tenet underlying the data/information fusion concept is to leverage all available information to enhance diagnostic visibility, increase diagnostic reliability and reduce the number of diagnostic false alarms. This paper describes a basic PHM Data Fusion architecture being developed in alignment with the NASA C17 Propulsion Health Management (PHM) Flight Test program. The challenge of how to maximize the meaningful information extracted from disparate data sources to obtain enhanced diagnostic and prognostic information regarding the health and condition of the engine is the primary goal of this endeavor. To address this challenge, NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) and Pratt & Whitney (P&W) have formed a team with several small innovative technology companies to plan and conduct a research project in the area of data fusion as applied to PHM. Methodologies being developed and evaluated have been drawn from a wide range of areas including artificial intelligence, pattern recognition, statistical estimation, and fuzzy logic. This paper will provide a broad overview of this work, discuss some of the methodologies employed and give some illustrative examples.

Volponi, Allan J.↗