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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1994

Advanced data assimilation in strongly nonlinear dynamical systems

Advanced data assimilation methods are applied to simple but highly nonlinear problems. The dynamical systems studied here are the stochastically forced double well and the Lorenz model. In both systems, linear approximation of the dynamics about the critical points near which regime transitions occur is not always sufficient to track their occurrence or nonoccurrence. Straightforward application of the extended Kalman filter yields mixed results. The ability of the extended Kalman filter to track transitions of the double-well system from one stable critical point to the other depends on the frequency and accuracy of the observations relative to the mean-square amplitude of the stochastic forcing. The ability of the filter to track the chaotic trajectories of the Lorenz model is limited to short times, as is the ability of strong-constraint variational methods. Examples are given to illustrate the difficulties involved, and qualitative explanations for these difficulties are provided. Three generalizations of the extended Kalman filter are described. The first is based on inspection of the innovation sequence, that is, the successive differences between observations and forecasts; it works very well for the double-well problem. The second, an extension to fourth-order moments, yields excellent results for the Lorenz model but will be unwieldy when applied to models with high-dimensional state spaces. A third, more practical method--based on an empirical statistical model derived from a Monte Carlo simulation--is formulated, and shown to work very well. Weak-constraint methods can be made to perform satisfactorily in the context of these simple models, but such methods do not seem to generalize easily to practical models of the atmosphere and ocean. In particular, it is shown that the equations derived in the weak variational formulation are difficult to solve conveniently for large systems.

Miller, Robert N.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A performability solution method for degradable nonrepairable systems

The present performability model-solving algorithm identifies performance with 'reward', representing the state behavior of a system S by a finite-state stochastic process and determining reward by means of reward rates that are associated with the states of the base model. A general method is obtained for determining the probability distribution function of the performance (reward) variable, and therefore the performability, of the corresponding system. This is done for bounded utilization periods, and the result is an integral expression which is either analytically or numerically solvable.

Furchtgott, D. G.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Autonomous Ocean World Exploration: Advancement of a Virtual Testbed

The search for life (extinct or extant) and potentially habitable bodies in our solar system and beyond is one of the 12 priority science questions outlined in the National Acadamies’ 2022 decadal survey [5]. Extraterrestrial destinations containing liquid water present an opportunity to search for life as we know it, and in recent years an increasing number of such locations have been discovered within our solar system. Several Jovian moons—Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto [10]—and the Saturnian moons Enceladus [8] and Titan [9] are known or suspected to harbor massive subsurface oceans. Of these "ocean worlds", Europa is the focus of at least one planned NASA orbiter mission, Europa Clipper [4], and an early lander mission concept, the Europa Lander [2, 3]. Whereas most robotic missions to the Moon and Mars (e.g. orbiters, rovers, landers) to date have had ground controllers on Earth tightly involved in mission operations, missions to more distant worlds will require a high degree of onboard autonomy due to long communication lags and blackouts, harsh environments (radiation, cold), and more limited battery and hardware life. The past decade has seen great advances in both AI technologies and computing scalability and performance that offer promising solutions for spacecraft autonomy and motivate the software system and research programs described in this paper. The Ocean Worlds Autonomy Testbed for Exploration, Research, and Simulation (OceanWATERS) [1], which has been in development at the NASA Ames Research Center since 2018, is a virtual environment for testing lander autonomy solutions. It is built on the Robot Operating System (ROS), runs on consumer-grade Linux workstations, and was released as open source in 2020. OceanWATERS provides a physical and visual simulation of a prototypical lander in a Europa-like environment (Figure 1). The lander was modeled after requirements and specifications made in JPL’s Europa Lander Study of 2016 [3]. Simulated lander systems include stereo cameras and spotlights mounted on an antenna mast that pans and tilts, a 6 degrees of freedom (DoF) robotic arm with a force-torque sensor and two interchangeable end effectors, and a battery pack power system. The environment consists of multiple terrain models including a highly detailed model sourced from the FROST dataset [11], simulation of surrounding planetary bodies based on an ephemeris model, and lighting from the sun with associated surface illumination, reflectance, and shadows. Operations supported by OceanWATERS include panoramic and directed imaging of the environment and lander workspace, Cartesian and joint-level arm commanding, grinding of the terrain surface (e.g. digging a trench), and scooping of ground material (Figure 2) which can be discarded or collected as science samples in a receptacle that can be emptied (science operations themselves are not simulated). These operations are realized as ROS Actions and are complimented by a wide selection of telemetry that is continually produced by each lander subsystem. The power system model is driven by the open-source Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) [11] that predicts the battery’s remaining useful life and other characteristics. As a testbed for high-level autonomy, OceanWATERS provides an execution framework based on PLEXIL [12], an open-source plan specification language and execution engine developed largely at Ames. NASA's initial development of OceanWATERS, as well the Ocean Worlds Lander Autonomy Testbed (OWLAT) [6], a complimentary physical testbed developed at JPL, was the first step in a plan for realizing candidate onboard autonomy solutions for such planetary landers. In 2020 NASA solicited applications for its Autonomous Robotics Research for Ocean Worlds (ARROW) program, and in 2021 the similar Concepts for Ocean worlds Life Detection Technology (COLDTech) program. Collectively six research teams, based in universities and companies across the United States, were awarded grants to develop and demonstrate autonomy solutions on OceanWATERS and OWLAT. These 1–2-year projects have now finished or are nearing completion, and a wide variety of autonomy challenges in ocean world surface missions were addressed. Prototyped and demonstrated solutions have included autonomous discovery, response and adaptation to system faults and unexpected environmental events, world model synthesis through perception, plan synthesis using learned models, methods to optimize sample target selection and prioritize science data transmission, extension of PLEXIL for stochastic decision-making, and an integration of a model of JPL’s mission-ready COLDArm [7]. Technologies used in these projects include many forms of machine learning, causal reasoning, automated planning, Markov decision processes, formal methods, and other advanced techniques. A more detailed summary of the ARROW and COLDTech projects is given herein. OceanWATERS has had significant enhancements since its open-source release in 2020. Many of its new features were driven or shaped by feedback from the ARROW and COLDTech teams and requirements of their projects. In support of enabling autonomous adaptation to spacecraft faults (a specific capability solicited by both programs), a fault injection and detection framework was developed that supports a wide and growing range of fault types such as locked joints, image loss, and battery failures. The power system model was completed and integrated into the simulator, starting as a single-cell battery model and later upgraded to a multi-cell model with associated faults such as cell disconnection. Arm/terrain interaction was improved by adding a force-torque sensor and associated faults, and an analytic dig force model based on the Balovnev bucket force equations. Environment fidelity was increased by modeling terrain deformation resulting from digging and scooping; visual improvements were made in textures, lighting, and shadows. To facilitate interoperation with OWLAT, a unified command and telemetry interface between the testbeds was developed at the ROS level, along with a PLEXIL interface. The number of lander operations was greatly expanded (e.g. with Cartesian-based arm and antenna movement), and a framework was designed for users to build their own lander actions. A GUI for PLEXIL plan selection was created (Figure 3), and an expansive set of plans were added, such as those that illustrate patterns for fault handling. This paper provides a self-contained high-level description of OceanWATERS, focusing on more detailed coverage of the aforementioned enhancements. It provides a high-level summary of the projects undertaken by participants in the ARROW and COLDTech programs and how these efforts have helped shape OceanWATERS. Finally, potential future work and directions for the testbed are listed, as likely informed by the recent planetary science decadal survey [5].

K Michael Dalal↗
DOE OSTI2024

Proton Acceleration in Low- β Magnetic Reconnection with Energetic Particle Feedback

Magnetic reconnection regions in space and astrophysics are known as active particle acceleration sites. There is ample evidence showing that energetic particles can take a substantial amount of converted energy during magnetic reconnection. However, there has been a lack of studies understanding the backreaction of energetic particles at magnetohydrodynamical scales in magnetic reconnection. To address this, we have developed a new computational method to explore the feedback by nonthermal energetic particles. This approach considers the backreaction from these energetic particles by incorporating their pressure into magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations. The pressure of the energetic particles is evaluated from their distribution evolved through Parker's transport equation, solved using stochastic differential equations (SDEs), so we coin the name MHD-SDE. Applying this method to low-β magnetic reconnection simulations, we find that reconnection is capable of accelerating a large fraction of energetic particles that contain a substantial amount of energy. When the feedback from these particles is included, their pressure suppresses the compression structures generated by magnetic reconnection, thereby mediating particle energization. Consequently, the feedback from energetic particles results in a steeper power-law energy spectrum. These findings suggest that feedback from nonthermal energetic particles plays a crucial role in magnetic reconnection and particle acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1997

Algorithms for Performance, Dependability, and Performability Evaluation using Stochastic Activity Networks

Modeling tools and technologies are important for aerospace development. At the University of Illinois, we have worked on advancing the state of the art in modeling by Markov reward models in two important areas: reducing the memory necessary to numerically solve systems represented as stochastic activity networks and other stochastic Petri net extensions while still obtaining solutions in a reasonable amount of time, and finding numerically stable and memory-efficient methods to solve for the reward accumulated during a finite mission time. A long standing problem when modeling with high level formalisms such as stochastic activity networks is the so-called state space explosion, where the number of states increases exponentially with size of the high level model. Thus, the corresponding Markov model becomes prohibitively large and solution is constrained by the the size of primary memory. To reduce the memory necessary to numerically solve complex systems, we propose new methods that can tolerate such large state spaces that do not require any special structure in the model (as many other techniques do). First, we develop methods that generate row and columns of the state transition-rate-matrix on-the-fly, eliminating the need to explicitly store the matrix at all. Next, we introduce a new iterative solution method, called modified adaptive Gauss-Seidel, that exhibits locality in its use of data from the state transition-rate-matrix, permitting us to cache portions of the matrix and hence reduce the solution time. Finally, we develop a new memory and computationally efficient technique for Gauss-Seidel based solvers that avoids the need for generating rows of A in order to solve Ax = b. This is a significant performance improvement for on-the-fly methods as well as other recent solution techniques based on Kronecker operators. Taken together, these new results show that one can solve very large models without any special structure.

Deavours, Daniel D.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Multi-Pass Sequential Mini-Batch Stochastic Gradient Descent Algorithms for Noise Covariance Estimation in Adaptive Kalman Filtering

Estimation of unknown noise covariances in a Kalman filter is a problem of significant practical interest in a wide array of applications. Although this problem has a long history, reliable algorithms for their estimation were scant, and necessary and sufficient conditions for identifiability of the covariances were in dispute until recently. Necessary and sufficient conditions for covariance estimation and a batch estimation algorithm were presented in our previous study. This paper presents stochastic gradient descent algorithms for noise covariance estimation in adaptive Kalman filters that are an order of magnitude faster than the batch method for similar or better root mean square error. More significantly, these algorithms are applicable to non-stationary systems where the noise covariances can occasionally jump up or down by an unknown magnitude. The computational efficiency of the new algorithms stems from adaptive thresholds for convergence, recursive fading memory estimation of the sample cross-correlations of the innovations, and accelerated stochastic gradient descent algorithms. The comparative evaluation of the proposed methods on a number of test cases demonstrates their computational efficiency and accuracy.

Adaptive Kalman filtering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Jensen–Shannon divergence based novel loss functions for Bayesian neural networks

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are state-of-the-art machine learning methods that can naturally regularize and systematically quantify uncertainties using their stochastic parameters. Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence-based variational inference used in BNNs suffer from unstable optimization and challenges in approximating light-tailed posteriors due to the unbounded nature of the KL divergence. To resolve these issues, we formulate a novel loss function for BNNs based on a new modification to the generalized Jensen–Shannon (JS) divergence, which is bounded. In addition, we propose a Geometric JS divergence-based loss, which is computationally efficient since it can be evaluated analytically. We found that the JS divergence-based variational inference is intractable, and hence employed a constrained optimization framework to formulate these losses. Our theoretical analysis and empirical experiments on multiple regression and classification data sets suggest that the proposed losses perform better than the KL divergence-based loss, especially when the data sets are noisy or biased. Specifically, there are approximately 5% and 8% improvements in accuracy for a noise-added CIFAR-10 dataset and a regression dataset, respectively. There is about 13% reduction in false negative predictions of a biased histopathology dataset. Additionally, we quantify and compare the uncertainty metrics for the regression and classification tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Explicit simulation of the Brownian rotation of arbitrary shaped aerosol particles using quaternions

The shape of an aerosol particle strongly influences its mass and momentum transfer cross-sections, charging properties, and other physical properties. Here, we present an explicit time-stepping procedure to simulate the rotational Brownian motion of arbitrary shaped aerosol particles by solving Euler’s equation of rotation. A Langevin formulation of the rotation equations is used, wherein Brownian motion due to thermal collisions between a particle and background gas molecules is represented using a stochastic fluctuating torque and fluid resistance is included as a drag torque. To avoid singularities associated with describing the orientation of a shape with Euler angles, we employ a quaternion formulation that leads to first-order stochastic differential equations to describe the evolution of the angular position and angular velocity of a rigid body. We perform all the rotational dynamics calculations in the body-fixed frame of reference attached to the rotating shape whose basis vectors are the normalized eigenvectors of the inertia tensor of the particle. Numerical solutions to rotation under torque-free conditions, damped rotation without Brownian motion, and stochastic rotation for arbitrary shapes are presented and discussed. The presented method enables time-resolved simulation of Brownian rotation for direct comparison with experimentally measured trajectories or statistical measures. The second order accuracy of the used time-stepping procedure places a severe restriction on the timestep that can be used for obtaining accurate results. Animations of presented simulations are included for visualizing rotational motion at various gas pressures. To aid implementation, MATLAB ® codes are also provided. Extension to include translation Brownian motion is straightforward.

Roy, Mrittika↗
NASA NTRS1988

Some comments on particle image displacement velocimetry

Laser speckle velocimetry (LSV) or particle image displacement velocimetry, is introduced. This technique provides the simultaneous visualization of the two-dimensional streamline pattern in unsteady flows as well as the quantification of the velocity field over an entire plane. The advantage of this technique is that the velocity field can be measured over an entire plane of the flow field simultaneously, with accuracy and spatial resolution. From this the instantaneous vorticity field can be easily obtained. This constitutes a great asset for the study of a variety of flows that evolve stochastically in both space and time. The basic concept of LSV; methods of data acquisition and reduction, examples of its use, and parameters that affect its utilization are described.

Lourenco, L. M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Turbulence modulation effect on evaporating spray characterization

The effects of turbulence modulation on the evaporating spray characteristics of a liquid fuel jet are numerically investigated. Two modulation models are implemented into the k-epsilon two-equation model. The gas phase is solved by a pressure-based method on a Eulerian frame and droplets are solved by a stochastic discrete particle technique based on Lagrangian formulation. The k-epsilon models are used to characterize the time and length scales of the gas phase turbulence for droplet dispersions and droplet/turbulence interactions. The modulation models are found to have significant effects on gas phase dynamics, and are less important for the droplet dynamics. Numerical predictions are compared with the experimental data of Drallemier and Peters (1990).

Shang, H. M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data

Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
NASA NTRS2011

Mesh-Based Entry Vehicle and Explosive Debris Re-Contact Probability Modeling

The risk to a crewed vehicle arising from potential re-contact with fragments from an explosive breakup of any jettisoned spacecraft segments during entry has long sought to be quantified. However, great difficulty lies in efficiently capturing the potential locations of each fragment and their collective threat to the vehicle. The method presented in this paper addresses this problem by using a stochastic approach that discretizes simulated debris pieces into volumetric cells, and then assesses strike probabilities accordingly. Combining spatial debris density and relative velocity between the debris and the entry vehicle, the strike probability can be calculated from the integral of the debris flux inside each cell over time. Using this technique it is possible to assess the risk to an entry vehicle along an entire trajectory as it separates from the jettisoned segment. By decoupling the fragment trajectories from that of the entry vehicle, multiple potential separation maneuvers can then be evaluated rapidly to provide an assessment of the best strategy to mitigate the re-contact risk.

McPherson, Mark A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating Open Quantum Systems Using Hamiltonian Simulations

We present a novel method to simulate the Lindblad equation, drawing on the relationship between Lindblad dynamics, stochastic differential equations, and Hamiltonian simulations. We derive a sequence of unitary dynamics in an enlarged Hilbert space that can approximate the Lindblad dynamics up to an arbitrarily high order. This unitary representation can then be simulated using a quantum circuit that involves only Hamiltonian simulation and tracing out the ancilla qubits. There is no need for additional postselection in measurement outcomes, ensuring a success probability of one at each stage. Our method can be directly generalized to the time-dependent setting. We provide numerical examples that simulate both time-independent and time-dependent Lindbladian dynamics with accuracy up to the third order. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Ding, Zhiyan (ORCID:000000018863403X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Evaluation of Spectral Methods for Robust Reactor Noise Estimation

Reactor noise analysis provides a noninvasive means to determine neutron kinetic parameters from stochastic fluctuations in detector signals. However, standard cross-power spectral density (CPSD) analyses can be sensitive to numerical processing choices, which may introduce processing-dependent systematic shifts in estimates of the prompt neutron decay constant (α) and limit reproducibility. This study uses a hybrid multitaper–Welch spectral estimator to analyze subcritical noise measurements from a fast-spectrum critical assembly. The decay constant α was extracted using three frequency-domain methods: the CPSD, the magnitude-squared coherence (MSC), and the generalized magnitude-squared coherence (GMSC). These coherence-based estimators normalize detector auto-spectral structure and are expected to reduce the sensitivity of fitted α values to processing parameters. A Sobol global sensitivity analysis identified which numerical inputs most strongly influence the fitted values of α. All estimators produced a linear dependence of α on inverse count rate, with delayed-critical extrapolations near 1.7 × 10 4 s −1 , in agreement within 8% of MCNP6.3 KOPTS benchmark calculations. Sensitivity results show that while the CPSD depends on both time-bin width and taper selection, the MSC and GMSC are dominated by time-bin width alone, indicating reduced parameter coupling and greater robustness to processing variability. These findings demonstrate the feasibility and practical value of coherence-based spectral estimators for extracting α from reactor noise and support their broader application to multi-detector and irregular datasets in subcritical system characterization.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1993

A general rough-surface inversion algorithm: Theory and application to SAR data

Rough-surface inversion has significant applications in interpretation of SAR data obtained over bare soil surfaces and agricultural lands. Due to the sparsity of data and the large pixel size in SAR applications, it is not feasible to carry out inversions based on numerical scattering models. The alternative is to use parameter estimation techniques based on approximate analytical or empirical models. Hence, there are two issues to be addressed, namely, what model to choose and what estimation algorithm to apply. Here, a small perturbation model (SPM) is used to express the backscattering coefficients of the rough surface in terms of three surface parameters. The algorithm used to estimate these parameters is based on a nonlinear least-squares criterion. The least-squares optimization methods are widely used in estimation theory, but the distinguishing factor for SAR applications is incorporating the stochastic nature of both the unknown parameters and the data into formulation, which will be discussed in detail. The algorithm is tested with synthetic data, and several Newton-type least-squares minimization methods are discussed to compare their convergence characteristics. Finally, the algorithm is applied to multifrequency polarimetric SAR data obtained over some bare soil and agricultural fields. Results will be shown and compared to ground-truth measurements obtained from these areas. The strength of this general approach to inversion of SAR data is that it can be easily modified for use with any scattering model without changing any of the inversion steps. Note also that, for the same reason it is not limited to inversion of rough surfaces, and can be applied to any parameterized scattering process.

Moghaddam, M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Adaptive Stress Testing of Airborne Collision Avoidance Systems

This paper presents a scalable method to efficiently search for the most likely state trajectory leading to an event given only a simulator of a system. Our approach uses a reinforcement learning formulation and solves it using Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). The approach places very few requirements on the underlying system, requiring only that the simulator provide some basic controls, the ability to evaluate certain conditions, and a mechanism to control the stochasticity in the system. Access to the system state is not required, allowing the method to support systems with hidden state. The method is applied to stress test a prototype aircraft collision avoidance system to identify trajectories that are likely to lead to near mid-air collisions. We present results for both single and multi-threat encounters and discuss their relevance. Compared with direct Monte Carlo search, this MCTS method performs significantly better both in finding events and in maximizing their likelihood.

Verification and Validation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale simulation of spatially correlated microstructure via a latent space representation

When deformation gradients act on the scale of the microstructure of a part due to geometry and loading, spatial correlations and finite-size effects in simulation cells cannot be neglected. We propose a multiscale method that accounts for these effects using a variational autoencoder to encode the structure–property map of the stochastic volume elements making up the statistical description of the part. In this paradigm the autoencoder can be used to directly encode the microstructure or, alternatively, its latent space can be sampled to provide likely realizations. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method on three examples using the common additively manufactured material AlSi10Mg in: (a) a comparison with direct numerical simulation of the part microstructure, (b) a push forward of microstructural uncertainty to performance quantities of interest, and (c) a simulation of functional gradation of a part with stochastic microstructure.

Elastoplasticity↗