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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

Sea Surface Salinity Reemergence in an Updated North Atlantic In Situ Salinity Dataset

Monthly sea surface salinity (SSS) fields are constructed from observations, using objective mapping on a 1° x 1° grid in the Atlantic between 30°S and 50°N in the 1970-2016 period in an update of the dataset of Reverdin et al. Data coverage is heterogeneous, with increased density in 2002 when Argo floats become available, high density along Voluntary Observing Ship lines, and low density south of 10°S. Using lag correlation, the seasonal reemergence of SSS anomalies is investigated between 20° and 50°N in 5° x 5° boxes during the 1993-2016 period, both locally and remotely following the displacements of the deep mixed-layer waters estimated from virtual float trajectories derived from the daily AVISO surface geostrophic currents. Although SSS data are noisy, local SSS reemergence is detected in about half of the boxes, notably in the northeast and southeast, while little reemergence is seen in the central and part of the eastern subtropical gyre. In the same period, sea surface temperature (SST) reemergence is found only slightly more frequently, reflecting the short data duration. However, taking geostrophic advection into account degrades the detection of remote SSS and even SST reemergence. When anomalies are averaged over broader areas, robust evidence of a second and third SSS reemergence peak is found in the northeastern and southeastern parts of the domain, indicating long cold-season persistence of large-scale SSS anomalies, while only a first SST reemergence is seen. Finally, an oceanic reanalysis is used to confirm that the correlation analysis indeed reflects the reemergence of subsurface salinity anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Residential segregation and outdoor urban moist heat stress disparities in the United States

The combined impact of urbanization-induced warming and drying on large-scale heat stress disparities remains unknown, with multicity studies using satellite-derived land surface temperature as a proxy for these disparities. Here, using high-resolution urban-resolving numerical model simulations for 2014–2018, we find pervasive disparities in all-sky average maximum summertime air temperature and moist heat stress metrics across US cities, with higher outdoor heat stress exposure in poorer and primarily non-white census tracts. Ninety-four percent of the US urban population (228 million) live in cities where heat stress burdens the poor, with heat stress inequities between white and non-white populations strongly associated with residential segregation. Similarly, historically redlined neighborhoods show higher heat stress than their non-redlined counterparts, demonstrating how historical segregation relates to present-day environmental inequalities. Our results provide quantitative estimates of physiologically relevant heat stress disparities at the US national scale and highlight potential biases when using satellites as a proxy for these.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seismology on Venus with infrasound observations from balloon and orbit

The study of Venus' evolution is inexorably linked with studying its interior properties, which can be investigated by performing seismic studies on the planet. However, seismology on Venus has long eluded planetary scientists due to technological challenges presented by high surface temperature and pressure, which limit lifetimes of surface-based instrumentation. In this white paper, we present two complementary techniques for performing seismology on Venus by measuring the low-frequency acoustic signature (infrasound) produced by seismic activity through coupling between the solid planet and the atmosphere. These techniques may be implemented with technology available today, without the use of high-temperature electronics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wave Measurements taken NW of Culebra Is., PR, 2023

Wave and sea surface temperature measurements collected by a Sofar Spotter buoy in 2023. The buoy was deployed on July 27, 2023 at 11:30 UTC northwest of Culebra Island, Puerto Rico, (18.3878 N, 65.3899 W) and recovered on Nov 5, 2023 at 12:45 UTC. Data are saved here in netCDF format, organized by month, and include directional wave statistics, GPS, and SST measurements at 30-minute intervals. Figures produced from these data are provided here as well. They include timeseries of wave height/period/direction and SST, GPS location, wave roses, and directional spectra. Additionally, raw CSV files from the Spotter's memory card can also be found below. NetCDF files can be read in python using the netCDF4 or Xarray packages, or through MATLAB using the "ncread()" command.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian Deep Learning Approach to Near-Term Climate Prediction

Since model bias and associated initialization shock are serious shortcomings that reduce prediction skills in state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction efforts, we pursue a complementary machine-learning-based approach to climate prediction. The example problem setting we consider consists of predicting natural variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on the interannual timescale in the pre-industrial control simulation of the Community Earth System Model. While previous works have considered the use of recurrent networks such as convolutional LSTMs and reservoir computing networks in this and other similar problem settings, we currently focus on the use of feedforward convolutional networks. In particular, we find that a feedforward convolutional network with a Densenet architecture is able to outperform a convolutional LSTM in terms of predictive skill. Next, we go on to consider a probabilistic formulation of the same network based on Stein variational gradient descent and find that in addition to providing useful measures of predictive uncertainty, the probabilistic (Bayesian) version improves on its deterministic counterpart in terms of predictive skill. Finally, we characterize the reliability of the ensemble of machine learning models obtained in the probabilistic setting by using analysis tools developed in the context of ensemble numerical weather prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tree-ring evidence marks year 2022 as the driest spring season in nearly four centuries in the Western Himalayas

The Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan region is a crucial freshwater source for billions across South Asia, yet its climate remains poorly understood due to limited long-term records. Winter and spring precipitation govern snow accumulation and downstream water availability in dry months particularly across the Western Himalayas (WH), but recent decades show intensifying droughts with unclear long-term context. Here, we have reconstructed a nearly four-century-long spring i.e. February to May (FMAM) precipitation for the Lahaul region of the (WH), an area dominated by the Western Disturbances. This record was developed using moisture-sensitive Cedrus deodara (Deodar) tree-rings from three high-elevation sites. A regional composite tree-ring-width chronology, developed through a Nested Principal Component Analysis and modeled with a nonlinear Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that explains 71 % of the variance during the calibration period. We identified the last two decades as the most precipitation deficit phase and the year 2022 showing the driest FMAM on record. The observed rise in the FMAM dry episodes post 1999 CE in our reconstruction, corresponds to the meteorological records. This recent drying is linked to a northward shift of the subtropical westerly jet and reduced moisture transport, both associated with unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the tropical Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific Ocean. Our results provide compelling evidence of long-term hydroclimatic instability in the WH and emphasize the value of tree-ring records in extending precipitation histories beyond the instrumental observations. Such reconstructions can be benchmarks to validate high-resolution climate models and formulate adaptation policies to mitigate future risks.

Cedrus deodara↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Hindcast Approach to Diagnosing the Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue SST Bias in CESM1

An ensemble seasonal hindcast approach is used to investigate the development of the equatorial Pacific Ocean cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias and its characteristic annual cycle in the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). In observations, eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs exhibit a warm phase during boreal spring and a cold phase during late boreal summer–autumn. The CESM1 climatology shows a cold bias during both warm and cold phases. In our hindcasts, the cold bias during the cold phase develops in less than 6 months, whereas the cold bias during the warm phase takes longer to emerge. The fast-developing cold-phase cold bias is associated with too-strong vertical advection and easterly wind stress over the eastern equatorial region. The antecedent boreal summer easterly wind anomalies also appear in atmosphere-only simulations, indicating that the errors are intrinsic to the atmosphere component. For the slower-developing warm-phase cold bias, we find that the too-cold SSTs over the equatorial region are associated with a slowly evolving upward displacement of subsurface ocean zonal currents and isotherms that can be traced to the ocean component.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Tale of Two Rapidly Intensifying Supertyphoons: Hagibis (2019) and Haiyan (2013)

Devastating Japan in October 2019, Supertyphoon (STY) Hagibis was an important typhoon in the history of the Pacific. A striking feature of Hagibis was its explosive rapid intensification (RI). In 24 h, Hagibis intensified by 100 knots (kt; 1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s –1 ), making it one of the fastest-intensifying typhoons ever observed. After RI, Hagibis’s intensification stalled. Using the current typhoon intensity record holder, i.e., STY Haiyan (2013), as a benchmark, this work explores the intensity evolution differences of these two high-impact STYs. We found that the extremely high prestorm sea surface temperature reaching 30.5°C, deep/warm prestorm ocean heat content reaching 160 kJ cm –2 , fast forward storm motion of ~8 m s –1 , small during-storm ocean cooling effect of ~0.5°C, significant thunderstorm activity at its center, and rapid eyewall contraction were all important contributors to Hagibis’s impressive intensification. There was 36% more air–sea flux for Hagibis’s RI than for Haiyan’s. After its spectacular RI, Hagibis’s intensification stopped, despite favorable environments. Haiyan, by contrast, continued to intensify, reaching its record-breaking intensity of 170 kt. A key finding here is the multiple pathways that storm size affected the intensity evolution for both typhoons. After RI, Hagibis experienced a major size expansion, becoming the largest typhoon on record in the Pacific. This size enlargement, combined with a reduction in storm translational speed, induced stronger ocean cooling that reduced ocean flux and hindered intensification. Furthermore, the large storm size also contributed to slower eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs), which prolonged the negative impact of the ERC on intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forced and Unforced Decadal Behavior of the Interhemispheric SST Contrast during the Instrumental Period (1881–2012): Contextualizing the Late 1960s–Early 1970s Shift

The sea surface temperature (SST) contrast between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) influences the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the intensity of the monsoon systems. This study examines the contributions of external forcing and unforced internal variability to the interhemispheric SST contrast in HadSST3 and ERSSTv5 observations, and 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from 1881 to 2012. Using multimodel mean fingerprints, a significant influence of anthropogenic, but not natural, forcing is detected in the interhemispheric SST contrast, with the observed response larger than that of the model mean in ERSSTv5. The forced response consists of asymmetric NH–SH SST cooling from the mid-twentieth century to around 1980, followed by opposite NH–SH SST warming. The remaining best-estimate residual or unforced component is marked by NH–SH SST maxima in the 1930s and mid-1960s, and a rapid NH–SH SST decrease around 1970. Examination of decadal shifts in the observed interhemispheric SST contrast highlights the shift around 1970 as the most prominent from 1881 to 2012. Both NH and SH SST variability contributed to the shift, which appears not to be attributable to external forcings. Most models examined fail to capture such large-magnitude shifts in their control simulations, although some models with high interhemispheric SST variability are able to produce them. Large-magnitude shifts produced by the control simulations feature disparate spatial SST patterns, some of which are consistent with changes typically associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Continuous snow depth, ground interface temperature and shallow soil temperature measurements from 2021-10-1 to 2022-6-14, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

The dataset contains co-located snow depth, ground interface temperature, and shallow soil temperature measured at 98 discrete locations in a watershed located along the Nome-Teller road at mile marker 27 (referred to as T27), and at 53 discrete locations on a hillslope located along the Kougarok road at mile marker 64 (referred to as K64), in Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The dataset aims to understand the local heterogeneity of snow depth, snow temperature, and soil temperature dynamics and their interactions in a discontinuous permafrost region. The dataset is also valuable to train and evaluate machine learning and physical models to predict snow depth or the impact of snow depth on ground surface temperature. At each location, temperatures above and below the ground surface were measured by a pair of vertically deployed distributed temperature profiling probes designed based on Dafflon et al (2022). The probes have high precision temperature sensors spaced at 5 or 10 cm. The mean daily snow depth was estimated by identifying the pair of consecutive sensors with maximum drop of daily temperature high-frequency fluctuations. The ground interface temperature was measured by the sensor located 1-5 cm above the ground surface at 15-minute intervals. The shallow soil temperature was measured by the sensor located 1-5 cm below the ground surface at 15-minute intervals. The dataset includes a description of the probe locations in the "Probe_locations_*.csv" file and the 3 data files (Snow_depths_*.csv, Ground_interface_temperatures_*.csv, Shallow_soil_temperatures_*.csv). * is either T27 or K64, which are the two study sites. In each data file, each column corresponds to a measurement location. Metadata files include data descriptions (_dd.csv) for tabular data. All included files are listed and described in xxxx_flmd.csv. A more detailed description of data processing, along with an updated dataset incorporating multiple seasons and improved snow depth estimation is available at https://doi.org/10.15485/2480365 (Wang et al., 2025a, Wang et al., 2025b).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Three-Dimensional Heat Flux and Thermal Analysis of Angled Tungsten Samples on DIII-D

ITER-grade tungsten and dispersoid-strengthened tungsten samples with the top surface angled at ~15° towards the incident plasma flux were exposed to 9 H-mode discharges with edge-localized modes (ELMs) in the lower divertor of DIII-D tokamak using the Divertor Material Evaluation System (DiMES). Surface damage included cracking and flaking of material on the two samples farthest away from the plasma strike point, and significant melting of the two samples closest to the strike point. Heat flux and thermal analysis tools new to DIII-D have been applied to better understand this material response and to help optimize the exposure conditions for future experiments. SMITER field-line tracing simulations based on IRTV data and EFIT equilibria estimate an average inter-ELM perpendicular heat flux, 𝑞⊥,𝑖nter−𝐸LM , on the angled surfaces of 10.1 – 19.6 MW/m² for a majority of the 9 discharges, increasing to 15.6 – 24.5 MW/m² for the single, higher-power shot where samples melted. Fast camera data showed shallow intra-ELM melting and re-solidification, which transitioned to bulk inter-ELM melting with melt motion in the 𝐽⃗ 𝑥 𝐵⃗ direction. About 50% of the protruding volume of the most affected sample was displaced via melt-motion. SIERRA thermal modeling software was able to reproduce an onset time of melting consistent with fast camera data and final sample conditions, within < 200 ms. Maximum surface temperatures of 3122 K and 2787 K are estimated for the samples farthest away from the strike point, while the closest samples achieve melting at 4067 ms and 4750 ms into the ~5000 ms plasma exposure. A +10% increase in both the SMITER 𝑞⊥,𝑖nter−𝐸LM calculations and the estimated ELM heat loads 𝑞⊥, 𝐸LM was required to achieve this result, which is within the uncertainty of the diagnostic data but likely accounts for non-ideal geometry effects plus other physics uncertainties not included in this first iteration of modeling. This work provided valuable estimates of the 3D temperature evolution to help better understand the observed surface morphology and internal recrystallization of samples, which are discussed in detail in a complementary manuscript [1]. Benchmarking efforts with more diagnosed DIII-D experiments are underway to further refine the SMITER and SIERRA models for DiMES. Future use of these tools will enable researchers to precisely target heat flux exposure conditions in DIII-D to test, but not exceed, the thermomechanical limitations of novel plasma-facing materials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Study of Temperature Distribution and Thermal Stresses in a Hot Rock Due to Rapid Cooling

Thermal stresses may be induced in a hot dry rock when a cold fluid is injected in the well. To study this problem, we look at the thermoelastic response of a hot rock that is suddenly cooled. The cooling is assumed to be either at a constant temperature or at a constant heat flux per unit depth. Our approach is to nondimensionalize the equations and perform a parametric study and look at the temperature distribution and the induced-thermal stresses. The results indicate that depending on the extent of cooling and the cooling time, thermal stresses can be induced. Numerical simulations on sandstone, with an initial uniform temperature of 473 K, are also carried out. The results show that if the cooling is due to the surface temperature maintained at 463 K (10 °C lower than the initial temperature of the hot rock), thermal stresses that are larger than the rock tensile strength could be induced. When the cooling is due to a constant surface heat flux, this temperature can be reached after about 777 days of cooling with a minimum value of a heat flux of -20 W/m.

Tran, Phuoc↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global impacts of vegetation clumping on regulating land surface heat fluxes

The clumping index (CI) quantifies the non-random distribution of vegetation across space, which regulates the canopy radiative transfer processes and land surface carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, its impact on global surface energy budget, particularly sensible heat fluxes and surface temperature, is not well understood. Additionally, while there have been studies showing significant seasonal variations in CI, the impacts of these variations on surface energy fluxes remain unclear. In this study, we incorporated satellite-derived spatially and temporally explicit CI data into the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) to evaluate the effects of CI on global land energy fluxes. Our results showed that including CI increased the global mean sensible heat flux dissipated from ground by 3.9 W m -2 (~18%), while decreasing the global mean vegetation sensible heat flux by 4.9 W m -2 (~65%), resulting in a total sensible heat decrease of 1.0 W m -2 (~3%). In contrast, CI increased the global mean latent heat flux by 0.8 W m -2 (~2%), primarily due to increased evapotranspiration (up to 11 W m -2 ) in tropical regions. We also found considerable impacts of seasonal variations in CI, particularly on sensible heat fluxes from ground and vegetation in evergreen needleleaf forests and deciduous needleleaf forests. Using constant CI rather than considering seasonal variations resulted in significant overestimation and underestimation of the sensible heat fluxes from vegetation and ground, respectively, in boreal summer. In conclusion, these changes in surface energy fluxes caused by CI and its seasonal variations led to up to 1.7 and 0.5 K differences in simulated mean ground temperature. These findings highlight the importance of including CI and considering its seasonal variations in modeling land surface energy fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The effect of increasing temperature on crop photosynthesis: from enzymes to ecosystems

Abstract As global land surface temperature continues to rise and heatwave events increase in frequency, duration, and/or intensity, our key food and fuel cropping systems will likely face increased heat-related stress. A large volume of literature exists on exploring measured and modelled impacts of rising temperature on crop photosynthesis, from enzymatic responses within the leaf up to larger ecosystem-scale responses that reflect seasonal and interannual crop responses to heat. This review discusses (i) how crop photosynthesis changes with temperature at the enzymatic scale within the leaf; (ii) how stomata and plant transport systems are affected by temperature; (iii) what features make a plant susceptible or tolerant to elevated temperature and heat stress; and (iv) how these temperature and heat effects compound at the ecosystem scale to affect crop yields. Throughout the review, we identify current advancements and future research trajectories that are needed to make our cropping systems more resilient to rising temperature and heat stress, which are both projected to occur due to current global fossil fuel emissions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Source attribution of Arctic black carbon and sulfate aerosols and associated Arctic surface warming during 1980–2018

Observations show that the concentrations of Arctic sulfate and black carbon (BC) aerosols have declined since the early 1980s. Previous studies have reported that reducing sulfate aerosols potentially contributed to the recent rapid Arctic warming. In this study, a global aerosol–climate model (Community Atmosphere Model, version 5) equipped with Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (CAM5-EAST) is applied to quantify the source apportionment of aerosols in the Arctic from 16 source regions and the role of aerosol variations in affecting changes in the Arctic surface temperature from 1980 to 2018. The CAM5-EAST simulated surface concentrations of sulfate and BC in the Arctic had a decrease of 43% and 23%, respectively, in 2014–2018 relative to 1980–1984 mainly due to the reduction of emissions from Europe, Russia and local Arctic sources. Increases in emissions from South and East Asia led to positive trends in Arctic sulfate and BC in the upper troposphere. All aerosol radiative impacts are considered including aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions, as well as black carbon deposition on snow- and ice-covered surfaces. Within the Arctic, sulfate reductions caused a top-of-atmosphere (TOA) warming of 0.11 and 0.25 W m -2 through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions, respectively. While the changes in Arctic atmospheric BC has little impact on local radiative forcing, the decrease in BC in snow and ice led to a net cooling of 0.05 W m -2 . By applying climate sensitivity factors for different latitudinal bands, global changes in sulfate and BC during 2014–2018 (with respect to 1980–1984) exerted a +0.088 and 0.057 K Arctic surface warming, respectively, through aerosol–radiation interactions. Through aerosol–cloud interactions, the sulfate reduction caused an Arctic warming of +0.193 K between the two time periods. The weakened BC effect on snow–ice albedo led to an Arctic surface cooling of -0.041 K. The changes in atmospheric sulfate and BC outside the Arctic produced a total Arctic warming of +0.25 K, the majority of which is due to the midlatitude changes in radiative forcing. Our results suggest that changes in aerosols over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have a larger impact on Arctic temperature than other regions through enhanced poleward heat transport. The combined total effects of sulfate and BC produced an Arctic surface warming of +0.297 K, explaining approximately 20% of the observed Arctic warming since the early 1980s.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of ceria as a surrogate material for UO 2 in experiments on fuel cracking driven by resistive heating

A variety of normal operation and accident scenarios can generate thermal stresses large enough to cause cracking in light-water reactor (LWR) fuel pellets. Cracking of fuel pellets can lead to reduced heat removal, larger centerline temperatures, and localized stress in cladding all of which impact fuel performance. Furthermore, pellet cracking also contributes to a temperature reduction in the pellet since the pellet fragments tend to move towards the heat sink (cladding), and the heat flow remains predominantly radial despite the presence of cracks. It is important to understand the temperature profile on the pellet before and after cracking to improve cracking models in fuel performance codes However, in-reactor observation and measurement of cracking is very challenging owing to the harsh environment and design of fuel rods. Recently, an experimental pellet cracking test stand was developed for separate effects testing of normal operations and accident temperature conditions, using thermal imaging to capture the pellet surface temperature for evaluation of thermal stresses and optical imaging to capture the evolution of cracking in real time. Cracking experiments were initially performed using ceria (CeO 2 ) as a surrogate fuel material, which is useful for developing and demonstrating the experimental approaches but is also valuable in its own right for cracking model development and validation. A combination of induction and resistance heating was used for volumetric heat generation in the pellet creating a thermal gradient. The material properties of CeO 2 and UO 2 are reviewed and compared for use in model development. Simulations of the experiment were performed to evaluate the behavior of the surrogate (CeO 2 ) fuel in BISON. The measured temperature profiles from BISON models match reasonably well with the observed experiments for the ceria pellets before cracking. The findings from this work will help improve confidence in fracture models used for fuel pellets under similar in-reactor conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surface warming in global cities is substantially more rapid than in rural background areas

Warming trends in cities are influenced both by large-scale climate processes and by local-scale urbanization. However, little is known about how surface warming trends of global cities differ from those characterized by weather observations in the rural background. Here, through statistical analyses of satellite land surface temperatures (2002 to 2021), we find that the mean surface warming trend is 0.50 ± 0.20 K·decade –1 (mean ± one S.D.) in the urban core of 2000-plus city clusters worldwide, and is 29% greater than the trend for the rural background. On average, background climate change is the largest contributor explaining 0.30 ± 0.11 K·decade –1 of the urban surface warming. In city clusters in China and India, however, more than 0.23 K·decade –1 of the mean trend is attributed to urban expansion. We also find evidence of urban greening in European cities, which offsets 0.13 ± 0.034 K·decade –1 of background surface warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗