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DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the Effectiveness of Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test Detector Schemes in Seismic Event Detection and the Avoidance of Nontarget Signals

Cross-correlation techniques have played a long-standing and pivotal role in seismic event monitoring. However, the performance of correlation-based detectors is challenged by nuisance seismicity, or nontarget signals. Such detections are a problem when the mission is to automatically map events to the correct source region. Using aftershocks of the 2014 $M_w$ 6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake, we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing a dynamic correlation processor framework in a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) detector configuration to minimize nontarget detections. A GLRT maximizes a detection statistic with respect to one or more unknown parameters. In this case, the detection statistic is a template signal match against the waveform in a window sliding over a data stream, and the unknown parameter is an index variable indicating group membership of the template event or events. Detected events are assigned to the event group that yields the largest detection statistic. In this work, our results show that a GLRT detector will outperform a suite of independently operating correlation and subspace detectors in terms of having a lower nontarget detection rate at a given missed detection rate. We also show that a GLRT detector composed of a few high-rank subspace detectors has a slightly higher nontarget detection rate, but a significantly lower missed detection rate, than a GLRT detector composed of many low-rank subspace detectors. The high-rank GLRT configuration produced impressive results even with marginal data (single channel, single station, and very low time bandwidth product), which bodes well for the utility of building efficient aftershock classification systems and global monitoring systems at larger scales. However, future work is required to assess performance at the regional scale and to assess the performance of the system at detecting target events not used in the detector template creation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Specifying Calibration of Energy-Measuring Equipment

Instruments and standards need to be calibrated periodically to ensure that their use yields accurate measurements. Calibration needs, however, vary in sophistication, based on user expectations. This white paper reviews calibration terminology and standards, and describes best practices that have been developed for a) calibrating measurement equipment to ensure some known level of accuracy, and b) accrediting calibration service providers. Calibration is discussed in the context of metrological traceability, and excerpts from laboratory scopes of accreditation are shared to reveal the diversity of terminology and format among them. In an effort to aid those who currently calibrate measuring equipment or who have new or changing needs for calibrating measuring equipment, rationale is provided for why a specification might be used to request calibration services that meet specific test needs. Given the growing interest in using data to manage the energy consumption of systems, and the increasing number and variety of systems (e.g., building, computing) that can report such information, use cases requiring energy data are used to facilitate further discussion and provide examples. Commercially available service providers who are accredited for energy-measuring equipment calibration are compared and contrasted, and a specification template that might be used for requesting this calibration is presented. The specification template should be tailored to meet each user’s needs. To illustrate, an example set of energy-measuring-equipment test conditions (reflecting the planned usage of the device to be calibrated) is used to develop a customized calibration specification, and commercially available service providers are assessed in terms of their qualifications for calibration to that particular implementation of the specification template.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

PDQ Users Manual Version 1 for PDQ Code Version 1.12

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

NEAMS Workbench Status and Capabilities

The mission of the US Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program is to develop, apply, deploy, and support state-of-the-art predictive modeling and simulation tools for the design and analysis of current and future nuclear energy systems. This is accomplished by using computing architectures that range from laptops to leadership-class facilities. The NEAMS Workbench is a new initiative that will facilitate the transition from conventional tools to highfidelity tools by providing a common user interface for model creation, review, execution, output review, and visualization for integrated codes. The Workbench can use common user input, including engineering-scale specifications that are expanded into application-specific input requirements through the use of customizable templates. The templating process can enable multifidelity analysis of a system from a common set of input data. Additionally, the common user input processor can provide an enhanced alternative application input that provides additional conveniences compared with native input, especially for legacy codes. Expansion of the integrated codes and application templates available in the Workbench will broaden the NEAMS user community and will facilitate system analysis and design. Current and planned capabilities of the NEAMS Workbench are detailed herein.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Specifying Calibration of Environmental Sensors

The emergence of the Internet of Things is resulting in an increased ability of devices and systems to share data and is generating increasing interest in integrating sensors into a variety of devices deployed in the built environment. The value of such data is a function of how the data can be used. Data-producing devices and systems that enable valuable use-cases in turn can be seen as more valuable. Lighting systems are particularly interesting platforms for integrated sensors. Both indoor and outdoor lighting devices are becoming more connected, and their location is often ideally suited for hosting environmental sensors that can characterize the properties of indoor or outdoor spaces in ways that support a wide variety of use cases, from improving air quality to supporting fault diagnostics and prediction. The value of environmental-sensor-driven use-cases and the lighting systems that house them is dependent to some degree on sensor accuracy. Environmental sensors utilize a wide variety of sensing techniques or technologies and have varying accuracy. More-accurate, laboratory-grade products or reference standards are often used to characterize, refine, calibrate, adjust, and monitor devices that are deployed, or are intended to be deployed, in physical spaces of interest. Sensors or reference standards need to be calibrated periodically to ensure that their use yields accurate measurements. Calibration needs, however, vary in sophistication, based on user and use-case requirements. This paper provides guidance for evaluating the performance of environmental sensors so as to ensure that they meet user or use-case needs. It describes best practices that have been developed for a) calibrating sensors to ensure some known level of accuracy, and b) determining whether calibration-laboratory accreditation meets user or use-case needs. Excerpts from laboratory scopes of accreditation are shared to reveal the diversity of terminology and format among them. In an effort to aid those who currently have sensors calibrated or who have new or changing needs for sensor calibration, rationale is provided for why a specification might be used to request calibration services that meet specific needs. Commercially available calibration-service providers that are accredited for environmental-sensor calibration are compared and contrasted, and a specification template that might be used for requesting this calibration is presented. The specification template should be tailored to meet each user’s needs. To illustrate, an example set of environmental-sensor test conditions (reflecting the planned usage of the device to be calibrated) is used to develop a customized calibration specification, and commercially available service providers are assessed in terms of their qualifications for calibration to that particular implementation of the specification template.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decay Curve Correction Analysis Report

The decay curve analysis that is done on the short-lived radionuclide gas samples is used to differentiate between gaseous radionuclides that have the same characteristic gamma decay energy, 511 kiloelectron-volts (keV). A sample of stack gas is isolated and the total counts in the 511 keV peak are counted repeatedly in 10-second intervals to evaluate the decay rate of the sample over time. Analysis of this decay data required a series of steps. First, a raw data report is generated by the gamma acquisition system, based on an analysis template within the acquisition software. The data report file was then loaded into Microsoft Word, and a macro was used to perform minor formatting (remove colons and insert tabs between data columns) to allow analysis within Excel. The file is then saved as a text file at this point. The text file is then uploaded into Excel and a series of macros are used to add labels, calculate radioactive decay constants, and analyze the gamma decay data using linear regression techniques. The analysis template has been used since 1998 for stack 53000303 (TA-53, building 0003, exhaust stack 03) and 2000 for stack 53000702. The overall process, including the gamma report format and the macros used in Word and Excel for processing the report, had remained unchanged until 2015. In October of 2015, staff made a change to the report template in the gamma acquisition software which resulted in an error in the calculations later performed by the Excel macro. This error was not caught until a more in-depth review of the analysis took place regarding 2020 data. This report covers a much more complete review of the issue that occurred regarding the decay curve analysis, a review of the calculations completed to correct the issue, a review of the updated decay curve analysis process, and recommendations for moving forward.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

PDQ Users Manual. Manual Version 2, for PDQ Code Version 1.20

PDQ is a tool for the management of the input and execution of batch jobs for simulation codes that use a text based input system. It accomplishes this goal by operating at two levels. First, it takes input file templates (commonly known at LANL as input deck templates) and creates multiple instantiations by performing substitutions of data from table files into symbols (variables) found in the template. Second, it provides commands to submit the created files to the SLURM batch system for execution. These two activities taken together produce a whole that is greater than the sum of its parts and provides an elegant way of executing studies across multiple similar simulations while minimizing the risk of typographical errors in the input files. PDQ was originally developed as a job management system called XVS by Jeff McAninch while he was at LANL. Besides the capabilities described here, XVS had many other features specific for interactions with particular simulation codes. After Jeff’s departure, maintenance of XVS was taken over by Rendell Carver; he added some new features as well as kept it functioning as the batch system at LANL was changed from LSF to MOAB to SLURM. In 2017, Rob Pelak decided to develop a different version that removed the additional features (many of which were rendered obsolete with the retirement of the simulation code or batch system that they supported) and produced a cleaner “bare bones” version of XVS. A few other behaviors of XVS that Rob found irksome were altered. Rob gave the resulting code a new name: PDQ. In 2022 Danielle McDermott developed a version that runs under Python 3.X. As suggested by Rob, she used the python2to3 utility to identify most changes. Given that PDQ continues to operate with Python version 2.7 we have advanced the version number to 1.20.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Unit Dwelling Plug-in EV Charging Innovation Pilots (Final Report)

Nearly one-third of residences in the U.S. are multi-unit dwellings (MUDs), e.g., apartments and condominiums, and MUDs with five or more units account for approximately 45% of rental households. While 80% of EV charging takes place at home, less than 5% of home charging takes place at MUDs. With public electric vehicle (EV) charging still underdeveloped, lack of access to reliable home charging is a major barrier to EV adoption for MUD residents. Challenges to siting electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) at MUDs include the high upfront cost of EVSE installation, physical and/or electrical infrastructure constraints, a lack of clear incentives for property managers to invest in installing EV charging for tenants, and a limited number of EV charging service providers that offer solutions adapted to the unique needs of MUDs. Through award DE-EE0008473 from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Center for Sustainable Energy (CSE), Energetics, and Forth, along with a diverse team of partners, led a three-year project to address barriers to EV charging at MUDs by developing an online toolkit geared toward residents, homeowner associations (HOAs), and property managers. The project, referred to as Vehicle Charging Innovations – Multi-Unit Dwellings (VCI-MUD project), engaged stakeholders across the country to identify real and perceived barriers to EV charging at MUDs and explored innovative technologies that attempt to alleviate the identified barriers. Over the course of three and a half years, the project conducted 60 interviews with industry stakeholders, compiled findings in an easy-to-use toolkit, and disseminated the toolkit across national, regional, state, and local channels. Key findings and outcomes of the VCI-MUD project include: Identifying six primary barriers to the installation of EV charging at MUDs; Developing five fact sheets and eight case studies highlighting innovative charging solutions to address barriers, including real-world operational and financial data; Developing a user-friendly, online empowerment toolkit with five important points for “making your pitch” to support EV charging to assist residents, property managers, building managers, and HOAs explore options for MUD charging. The VCI-MUD online toolkit was designed with replicability in mind. It includes general tools and guides to evaluate EV charging demand, gauge readiness for EV charging installation, and develop actionable plans. The fact sheets and case studies highlight the diversity of emerging MUD EV charging solutions, featuring different geographic and structural installation scenarios and providing interested parties with a menu of options, rather than prescribing a one-size-fits-all solution. The following resources are included in the toolkit to provide MUD stakeholders with all the information needed to navigate EV charging installation at their MUD location: Empowerment Toolkit – Easy-to-read FAQ overview, stakeholder roles and responsibilities, and additional resources for MUD EV charging installations; Charging Basics – Glossary of terms and descriptions of charging features, installation and operating expenses; EV Charging Survey Templates – Resident-to-Resident, Property Manager-to-Resident and HOA-to-Resident template letters with pre-populated template questions; Technology Selection Tool – Charging barrier fact sheets and case study examples; Installation Checklist – Submittal document requirements for EVSE installations; MUD Building Self-Evaluation Survey – Self-guided evaluation of potential barriers to EV charging installation at MUD locations; Curbside Resources – Case studies and fact sheets for curbside charging options; Find a Certified Electrician – Approved list of certified EV charging installers; “Right-to-Charge” State Legal References – Legal requirements for charging equipment at MUD locations. The online toolkit was promoted extensively in the final six months of the project and will continue to be disseminated by the Clean Cities Coalitions and other partners after the end of the VCI-MUD project to encourage, support, and demonstrate viable solutions for vehicle charging infrastructure in MUDs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

How Dynamic Time Warping Can Assist Conventional Cross-correlation

Waveform cross-correlation is a sensitive phase-matched filtering technique that can detect seismic events for nuclear explosion monitoring. However, there are outstanding challenges with correlation detectors, most notably a direct dependence on the completeness of the waveform template library. To ameliorate these challenges, we investigate how dynamic time warping (DTW) may make waveform correlation more robust. DTW analyzes the differences between two time series and attempts to “warp” one time series relative to another in a recursive manner. We apply DTW to synthetic earthquake and recorded explosion templates to expand the capability of correlation detectors. We explore what conditions (e.g., source, station distance, frequency bands) and/or DTW algorithms generate stronger correlation scores. We show that DTW performs well on noisy signals and can dramatically improve the cross-correlation coefficient between a template and data-stream waveform. We conclude with recommendations on how to utilize DTW in nuclear monitoring detection.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

BioID/LID System Cartridge Testing Report

LLNL produced two lots of lyophilized LAMP assay containing cartridges, LNL022818 and LNL071818, for testing on Gen3 BioID systems. Thirty-nine cartridges were tested for lot LNL022818. All thirty-nine cartridges performed as expected regarding correct positive control (IPC) and negative control (NTC) reactions. Five different templates were tested on these 39 cartridges. The BioID system detected 79.1% true positives and 9.3% false positives along with 98.9% true negatives and 2.9% false negatives for cartridge lot LNL022818. Thirty cartridges were tested for lot LNL071818. It was noted early that due to a manufacturing issue with the cartridges related to incomplete sonic welding of the cartridge, a large fraction of lot LNL071818 cartridges leaked. Insufficient funds were available to replace this lot of cartridges. Twenty three of 30 cartridges performed as expected regarding correct positive control (IPC) and negative control (NTC) reactions. Four different templates were tested on these 30 cartridges. The BioID system detected 77% true positives and 23% false positives along with 96.9% true negatives and 3.1% false negatives for cartridge lot LNL071818. For all tested cartridges using DNA template, DNA was added at a final concentration of 25 pg/ul. All reactions contained positive control DNA at 2.5 pg/ul.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of the 2021 Milford, Utah earthquake swarm: Enhanced earthquake catalog and migration patterns

An earthquake swarm occurred in Spring 2021 in south-central Utah near the town of Milford. The University of Utah Seismograph Stations located 125 earthquakes between March 19 and May 10 with magnitudes ranging from 0.5 to 3.2. We implement a matched-filter technique in order to identify additional earthquakes that went undetected during the routine network location. The 125 network-located earthquakes are used as templates and are cross-correlated with continuous data for the dates Feb 17—June 10. This time period corresponds to approximately 1 month before the earthquake swarm began through 1 month after it ended. For the matched-filter analysis, we rely heavily on station FOR1, which is located within 5 km of most template events. Four other stations within 20–30 km of most template events provide a supplement to the closest station. The matched-filter implementation results in the detection of over 600 earthquakes in addition to the original 125 catalog events. This is one of the largest swarms ever recorded in Utah, and no previous large swarms have been recorded in this location. We use HypoDD to obtain relative double-difference locations of the catalog events. Both routine locations and HypoDD relocations of the catalog events suggest a fault dipping west beneath the mountain range, opposite of typical Basin and Range normal faults that dip beneath alluvial valleys. Moment tensors for the largest five events show normal faulting consistent with the west-dipping fault seen in the seismicity. Hydrothermal features in the area, including a geothermal power plant, suggest that fluids may be a contributing factor to the earthquake swarm triggering. We examine the role of fluids by exploring bounds on diffusion parameters and investigating spatial migration characteristics of the swarm seismicity. We conclude that this swarm is the result of heterogenous stress conditions in a prefractured region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Photocrosslinking Probes Proximity of Thymine Modifiers Tethering Excitonically Coupled Dye Aggregates to DNA Holliday Junction

A DNA Holliday junction (HJ) has been used as a versatile scaffold to create a variety of covalently templated molecular dye aggregates exhibiting strong excitonic coupling. In these dye-DNA constructs, one way to attach dyes to DNA is to tether them via single long linkers to thymine modifiers incorporated in the core of the HJ. Here, using photoinduced [2 + 2] cycloaddition (photocrosslinking) between thymines, we investigated the relative positions of squaraine-labeled thymine modifiers in the core of the HJ, and whether the proximity of thymine modifiers correlated with the excitonic coupling strength in squaraine dimers. Photocrosslinking between squaraine-labeled thymine modifiers was carried out in two distinct types of configurations: adjacent dimer and transverse dimer. The outcomes of the reactions in terms of relative photocrosslinking yields were evaluated by denaturing polyacrylamide electrophoresis. We found that for photocrosslinking to occur at a high yield, a synergetic combination of three parameters was necessary: adjacent dimer configuration, strong attractive dye–dye interactions that led to excitonic coupling, and an A-T neighboring base pair. The insight into the proximity of dye-labeled thymines in adjacent and transverse configurations correlated with the strength of excitonic coupling in the corresponding dimers. To demonstrate a utility of photocrosslinking, we created a squaraine tetramer templated by a doubly crosslinked HJ with increased thermal stability. These findings provide guidance for the design of HJ-templated dye aggregates exhibiting strong excitonic coupling for exciton-based applications such as organic optoelectronics and quantum computing.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Constraint on Primordial B-modes from the First Flight of the Spider Balloon-borne Telescope

We present the first linear polarization measurements from the 2015 long-duration balloon flight of Spider, which is an experiment that is designed to map the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) on degree angular scales. The results from these measurements include maps and angular power spectra from observations of 4.8% of the sky at 95 and 150 GHz, along with the results of internal consistency tests on these data. While the polarized CMB anisotropy from primordial density perturbations is the dominant signal in this region of sky, Galactic dust emission is also detected with high significance. Galactic synchrotron emission is found to be negligible in the Spider bands. We employ two independent foreground-removal techniques to explore the sensitivity of the cosmological result to the assumptions made by each. The primary method uses a dust template derived from Planck data to subtract the Galactic dust signal. A second approach, which constitutes a joint analysis of Spider and Planck data in the harmonic domain, assumes a modified-blackbody model for the spectral energy distribution of the dust with no constraint on its spatial morphology. Using a likelihood that jointly samples the template amplitude and r parameter space, we derive 95% upper limits on the primordial tensor-to-scalar ratio from Feldman–Cousins and Bayesian constructions, finding r < 0.11 and r < 0.19, respectively. Roughly half the uncertainty in r derives from noise associated with the template subtraction. New data at 280 GHz from Spider's second flight will complement the Planck polarization maps, providing powerful measurements of the polarized Galactic dust emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

BICEP/Keck. XVI. Characterizing Dust Polarization through Correlations with Neutral Hydrogen

We characterize Galactic dust filaments by correlating BICEP/Keck and Planck data with polarization templates based on neutral hydrogen (H i) observations. Dust polarization is important for both our understanding of astrophysical processes in the interstellar medium (ISM) and the search for primordial gravitational waves in the cosmic microwave background (CMB). In the diffuse ISM, H i is strongly correlated with the dust and partly organized into filaments that are aligned with the local magnetic field. We analyze the deep BICEP/Keck data at 95, 150, and 220 GHz, over the low-column-density region of sky where BICEP/Keck has set the best limits on primordial gravitational waves. We separate the H i emission into distinct velocity components and detect dust polarization correlated with the local Galactic H i but not with the H i associated with Magellanic Stream i. We present a robust, multifrequency detection of polarized dust emission correlated with the filamentary H i morphology template down to 95 GHz. For assessing its utility for foreground cleaning, we report that the Hi morphology template correlates in B modes at a ~10%–65% level over the multipole range 20 < ℓ < 200 with the BICEP/Keck maps, which contain contributions from dust, CMB, and noise components. We measure the spectral index of the filamentary dust component spectral energy distribution to be β = 1.54 ± 0.13. We find no evidence for decorrelation in this region between the filaments and the rest of the dust field or from the inclusion of dust associated with the intermediate velocity H i. Finally, we explore the morphological parameter space in the H i-based filamentary model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

HD 222925: A New Opportunity to Explore the Astrophysical and Nuclear Conditions of r-process Sites

Abstract With the most trans-iron elements detected of any star outside the solar system, HD 222925 represents the most complete chemical inventory among metal-poor stars enhanced with elements made by the rapid neutron capture (“ r ”) process. As such, HD 222925 may be a new “template” for the observational r -process, where before the (much higher-metallicity) solar r -process residuals were used. In this work, we test under which conditions a single site accounts for the entire elemental r -process abundance pattern of HD 222925. We found that several of our tests—with the single exception of the black hole–neutron star merger case—challenge the single-site assumption by producing an ejecta distribution that is highly constrained, in disagreement with simulation predictions. However, we found that ejecta distributions that are more in line with simulations can be obtained under the condition that the nuclear data near the second r -process peak are changed. Therefore, for HD 222925 to be a canonical r -process template likely as a product of a single astrophysical source, the nuclear data need to be reevaluated. The new elemental abundance pattern of HD 222925—including the abundances obtained from space-based, ultraviolet (UV) data—call for a deeper understanding of both astrophysical r -process sites and nuclear data. Similar UV observations of additional r -process–enhanced stars will be required to determine whether the elemental abundance pattern of HD 222925 is indeed a canonical template (or an outlier) for the r -process at low metallicity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Extrapolation of Type Ia Supernova Spectra into the Near-infrared Using Principal Component Analysis

Abstract We present a method of extrapolating the spectroscopic behavior of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in the near-infrared (NIR) wavelength regime up to 2.30 μ m using optical spectroscopy. Such a process is useful for accurately estimating K-corrections and other photometric quantities of SNe Ia in the NIR. A principal component analysis is performed on data consisting of Carnegie Supernova Project I & II optical and NIR FIRE spectra to produce models capable of making these extrapolations. This method differs from previous spectral template methods by not parameterizing models strictly by photometric light-curve properties of SNe Ia, allowing for more flexibility of the resulting extrapolated NIR flux. A difference of around −3.1% to −2.7% in the total integrated NIR flux between these extrapolations and the observations is seen here for most test cases including Branch core-normal and shallow-silicon subtypes. However, larger deviations from the observation are found for other tests, likely due to the limited high-velocity and broad-line SNe Ia in the training sample. Maximum-light principal components are shown to allow for spectroscopic predictions of the color-stretch light-curve parameter, s BV , within approximately ±0.1 units of the value measured with photometry. We also show these results compare well with NIR templates, although in most cases the templates are marginally more fitting to observations, illustrating a need for more concurrent optical+NIR spectroscopic observations to truly understand the diversity of SNe Ia in the NIR.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distance Estimate Method for Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars Using Infrared Spectral Energy Distributions

We present a method to estimate distances to asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars in the Galaxy, using spectral energy distributions (SEDs) in the near- and mid-infrared. By assuming that a given set of source properties (initial mass, stellar temperature, composition, and evolutionary stage) will provide a typical SED shape and brightness, sources are color matched to a distance-calibrated template and thereafter scaled to extract the distance. The method is tested by comparing the distances obtained to those estimated from very long baseline interferometry or Gaia parallax measurements, yielding a strong correlation in both cases. Additional templates are formed by constructing a source sample likely to be close to the Galactic center, and thus with a common, typical distance for calibration of the templates. These first results provide statistical distance estimates to a set of almost 15,000 Milky Way AGB stars belonging to the Bulge Asymmetries and Dynamical Evolution (BAaDE) survey, with typical distance errors of ±35%. With these statistical distances, a map of the intermediate-age population of stars traced by AGBs is formed, and a clear bar structure can be discerned, consistent with the previously reported inclination angle of 30° to the GC–Sun direction vector. These results motivate deeper studies of the AGB population to tease out the intermediate-age stellar distribution throughout the Galaxy, as well as determining statistical properties of the AGB population luminosity and mass-loss-rate distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Agnostic Approach to Building Empirical Type Ia Supernova Light Curves: Evidence for Intrinsic Chromatic Flux Variation Using Nearby Supernova Factory Data

We present a new empirical Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) model with three chromatic flux variation templates: one phase dependent and two phase independent. No underlying dust extinction model or patterns of intrinsic variability are assumed. Implemented with Stan and trained using spectrally binned Nearby Supernova Factory spectrophotometry, we examine this model's 2D, phase-independent flux variation space using two motivated basis representations. In both, the first phase-independent template captures variation that appears dust-like, while the second captures a combination of effectively intrinsic variability and second-order dust-like effects. We find that ≈13% of the modeled phase-independent flux variance is not dust-like. Previous empirical SN Ia models either assume an effective dust extinction recipe in their architecture, or only allow for a single mode of phase-independent variation. The presented results demonstrate such an approach may be insufficient, because it could "leak" noticeable intrinsic variation into phase-independent templates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗