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Compare linear-system solver and preconditioner stacks with emphasis on GPU performance and propose phase-2 NGP solver development pathway

The goal of the ExaWind project is to enable predictive simulations of wind farms comprised of many megawatt-scale turbines situated in complex terrain. Predictive simulations will require computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for which the mesh resolves the geometry of the turbines and captures the rotation and large deflections of blades. Whereas such simulations for a single turbine are arguably petascale class, multi-turbine wind farm simulations will require exascale-class resources. The primary physics codes in the ExaWind project are Nalu-Wind, which is an unstructured-grid solver for the acoustically incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, and OpenFAST, which is a whole-turbine simulation code. The Nalu-Wind model consists of the mass-continuity Poisson-type equation for pressure and a momentum equation for the velocity. For such modeling approaches, simulation times are dominated by linear-system setup and solution for the continuity and momentum systems. For the ExaWind challenge problem, the moving meshes greatly affect overall solver costs as reinitialization of matrices and recomputation of preconditioners is required at every time step. In this report we evaluated GPU-performance baselines for the linear solvers in the Trilinos and hypre solver stacks using two representative Nalu-Wind simulations: an atmospheric boundary layer precursor simulation on a structured mesh, and a fixed-wing simulation using unstructured overset meshes. Both strong-scaling and weak-scaling experiments were conducted on the OLCF supercomputer Summit and similar proxy clusters. We focused on the performance of multi-threaded Gauss-Seidel and two-stage Gauss-Seidel that are extensions of classical Gauss-Seidel; of one-reduce GMRES, a communication-reducing variant of the Krylov GMRES; and algebraic multigrid methods that incorporate the afore-mentioned methods. The team has established that AMG methods are capable of solving linear systems arising from the fixed-wing overset meshes on CPU, a critical intermediate result for ExaWind FY20 Q3 and Q4 milestones. For the fixed-wing strong-scaling study (model with 3M grid-points), the team identified that Nalu-Wind simulations with the new Trilinos and hypre solvers scale to modest GPU counts, maintaining above 70% efficiency up to 6 GPUs. However, there still remain significant bottlenecks to performance: matrix assembly (hypre), AMG setup (hypre and Trilinos) In the weak-scaling experiments (going from 0.4M to 211M gridpoints), it's shown that the solver apply phases are faster on GPUs, but that Nalu-Wind simulation times grow, primarily due to the multigrid-setup process. Finally, based on the report outcomes, we propose a linear solver path-forward for the remainder of the ExaWind project. Near term, the NREL team will continue their work on GPU-based linear-system assembly. They will also investigate how the use of alternatives to the NVIDIA UVM (unified virtual memory) paradigm affects performance. Longer term, the NREL team will evaluate algorithmic performance on other types of accelerators and merge their improvements back to the main hypre repository branch. Near term, the Trilinos team will address performance bottlenecks identified in this milestone, such as implementing a GPU-based segregated momentum solve and reusing matrix graphs across linear-system assembly phases. Longer term, the Trilinos team will do detailed analysis and optimization of multigrid setup.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Demonstration and performance testing of extreme-resolution simulations with static meshes on Summit (CPU & GPU) for a parked-turbine configuration and an actuator-line (mid-fidelity model) wind farm configuration (ECP-Q4 FY2020 Milestone Report)

The goal of the ExaWind project is to enable predictive simulations of wind farms comprised of many megawatt-scale turbines situated in complex terrain. Predictive simulations will require computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for which the mesh resolves the geometry of the turbines and captures the rotation and large deflections of blades. Whereas such simulations for a single turbine are arguably petascale class, multi-turbine wind farm simulations will require exascale-class resources. The primary physics codes in the ExaWind simulation environment are Nalu-Wind, an unstructured-grid solver for the acoustically incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, AMR-Wind, a block-structured-grid solver with adaptive mesh refinement capabilities, and OpenFAST, a wind-turbine structural dynamics solver. The Nalu-Wind model consists of the mass-continuity Poisson-type equation for pressure and Helmholtz-type equations for transport of momentum and other scalars. For such modeling approaches, simulation times are dominated by linear-system setup and solution for the continuity and momentum systems. For the ExaWind challenge problem, the moving meshes greatly affect overall solver costs as reinitialization of matrices and recomputation of preconditioners is required at every time step. The choice of overset-mesh methodology to model the moving and non-moving parts of the computational domain introduces constraint equations in the elliptic pressure-Poisson solver. The presence of constraints greatly affects the performance of algebraic multigrid preconditioners.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Cummins Electric Truck with Range-Extending Engine (ETREE) Project (Final Technical Report)

The Cummins Electric Truck with Range Extending Engine (ETREE) program designed, developed, and demonstrated a range extending electric vehicle that employs an electrified propulsion system installed in a class 6 commercial vehicle (Peterbilt 220). This project was relevant to industry and the greater public because at the time of the project there were two keys to widespread electrified commercial vehicle adoption yet to be realize: 1) For pure electrified vehicle adoption, battery improvements are needed: Cost must decrease, and energy density must increase. 2) Electric vehicles must overcome fleet operator risks such as: operations in cold climates, hilly terrain, or where majority of conventional trucks are replaced with electrified vehicles. In the near to medium term these adoption hurdles were address by the objectives of this project. A plug-in hybrid vehicle that could be operated in all electric mode for most of its workday optimizing the use of grid energy with the ability to supplement energy demand with the onboard range extending engine. This project’s architecture provided ability to match a conventional class 6 commercial vehicle range and performance characteristics prior to the ubiquitous adoption of battery electric vehicle charging infrastructure as well. Additionally, the vehicles produced as part of this project can be considered a prototype for a commercially viable heavily electrified commercial vehicle because most of the physical hardware used for the project is commercially available in the market today. The ETREE program met its main objectives and demonstrated 65% fuel consumption reduction as compared to a conventional class 6 vehicle while meeting performance and range expectations. This was achieved by drawing upon the strengths of the assembled team: Cummins, PACCAR, the Ohio State University, Argonne National Laboratory and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Wind Energy Forecasting with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Siemens Energy, Inc. (Siemens) to develop a wind resource forecasting tool. LLNL was to develop an independent high-resolution mesoscale modeling capability forecasting tool that could be implemented in conjunction with existing wind farm control and monitoring software to provide forecasting of wind resources using local observations of winds and temperature. Research with LLNL’s state-of-the-art large-eddy simulation meteorological prediction model, based on the community WRF model and innovative turbulence parameterizations, would improve that model’s applicability to large wind farms offshore and in complex terrain. The modeling capability would include uncertainty quantification. Finally, the application of the modeling tool and existing global climate change predictions would enable the delineation of the likely effects of climate change on wind resources. Siemens was to provide high time resolution hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams, including temperature profiles from wind farms, for LLNL to incorporate into the modeling system, to validate and tune this forecasting model for their locations of interest. These data streams would also be used for longer-term studies of correlations of wind resources to climate oscillations to indicate how long-term climate change trends may affect the available wind resource. Siemens would also provide information and observations of turbine wakes for incorporation into the modeling tool. By implementing state-of-the-art turbulence parameterizations into a simulation model and/or ensembles of simulation models, and by integrating real-time hub height wind speed and other meteorological datastreams from wind farms into that model or ensemble of models, LLNL would develop a forecasting tool that could be implemented by Siemens as an add-on to existing wind farm control and monitoring software to provide owners with useful resource forecasting. The desired outcome was that the accuracy level of the output would be sufficient to substantiate power output commitments. The final deliverable for this work would consist of a document outlining the algorithms and software tools that could be integrated into Siemens Wind Park Supervisor.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico

After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Magnetic Navigation for GPS-Denied Airborne Applications

Most current flight systems are dependent on GPS for navigation. Recently, however, navigation in GPS-denied environments has become an area of intensive research. Additional navigation sensor data can be obtained from visual observations (stars or terrain), inertial measurement units, radar, measurements of the local magnetic field, or perhaps even gravity. Absolute and relative positioning via magnetic field measurements have been shown to be viable in many applications including ground navigation, low altitude aircraft flight, and spaceflight. There is greater variability in the magnetic field over shorter distances when flying at low altitude and in ground applications, leading to more accurate positioning. However, ground-based magnetic navigation is often heavily influenced by man-made structures, especially in urban environments. This is not the case for airborne magnetic navigation since the influence of buildings, roads, etc. is negligible for typical aircraft altitudes. For absolute magnetic navigation, the positioning accuracy decreases as altitude increases for a given vehicle velocity, but the observed time variability in the field can be reclaimed by traveling faster through the field. Thus, navigation accuracy becomes a balance of speed and altitude since the higher altitude can be counterbalanced by higher velocity. To understand these effects quantitatively, we explored various techniques to aid a simulated inertial measurement unit with magnetic information. Using a technique known as two-dimensional magnetic map matching, we simulated the performance of airborne magnetic navigation at fixed speed while varying the altitude, flight direction, magnetometer data collection time, reference magnetic map bias error, and type of trajectory (over land or over ocean).

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DNS/LES Study of Representative Wall-Bounded Turbulent Flows using SIERRA/Fuego

This report summarizes a series of SIERRA/Fuego validation efforts of turbulent flow models on canonical wall-bounded configurations. In particular, direct numerical simulations (DNS) and large eddy simulations (LES) turbulence models are tested on a periodic channel, a periodic pipe, and an open jet for which results are compared to the velocity profiles obtained theoretically or experimentally. Velocity inlet conditions for channel and pipe flows are developed for application to practical simulations. To show this capability, LES is performed over complex terrain in the form of two natural hills and the results are compared with other flow solvers. The practical purpose of the report is to document the creation of inflow boundary conditions of fully developed turbulent flows for other LES calculations where the role of inflow turbulence is critical.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Demonstrate moving-grid multi-turbine simulations primarily run on GPUs and propose improvements for successful KPP-2

The goal of the ExaWind project is to enable predictive simulations of wind farms comprised of many megawatt-scale turbines situated in complex terrain. Predictive simulations will require computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for which the mesh resolves the geometry of the turbines, capturing the thin boundary layers, and captures the rotation and large deflections of blades. Whereas such simulations for a single turbine are arguably petascale class, multi-turbine wind farm simulations will require exascale-class resources.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Advancing Platooning with ADAS (Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems) Control Integration and Assessment

Application of Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) to heavy duty trucks known as truck platooning has shown fuel economy improvements on the test track under ideal driving conditions. However, limited test data is available to assess the truck platooning under real-world driving conditions. Under this Cummins-led project that was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, truck platooning with CACC has been tested on a real-world interstate highway and the results of the project are reviewed in this report. At first, the real-world driving conditions were characterized using National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Fleet DNA database to define test factors, including route, terrain, and highway traffic. Afterward, both test track and on-highway testing guided by SAE J1321 procedures were conducted to assess truck platooning under controlled and real-world driving conditions. On-highway testing was done on a highway route in Indiana, consisting of low, medium, and high road grade segments. The highway test results of 2-truck and 3-truck platooning showed considerably reduced fuel savings compared to the controlled test track data, which mainly stems from the traffic or high-grade portions of the route. However, integration of Cummins powertrain and vehicle eco-driving features such as predictive cruise control and neutral coasting called ADEPT™ on the lead truck showed an improvement of fuel saving for the trucks in CACC operation. Furthermore, the importance of tire connectivity in efficient and safe operation of the trucks in platooning is characterized.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Preliminary Assessment of Potential for Wind Energy Technology on the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Reservation

Wind energy can provide renewable, sustainable electricity to rural Native homes and power schools and businesses. It can even provide tribes with a source of income and economic development. The purpose of this research is to determine the potential for deploying community and utility-scale wind renewable technologies on Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa tribal lands. Ideal areas for wind technology development were investigated, based on wind resources, terrain, land usage, and other factors. This was done using tools like the National Renewable Energy Laboratory Wind Prospector, in addition to consulting tribal members and experts in the field. The result was a preliminary assessment of wind energy potential on Turtle Mountain lands, which can be used to justify further investigation and investment into determining the feasibility of future wind technology projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Multispectral and Thermal Imager Onboard Aerial Platforms Instrument Handbook

The MicaSense Altum imager is an off-the-shelf, synchronized multispectral and thermal camera, combined with a Global Positioning System (GPS) unit and downwelling light sensor (DLS). The Altum takes images of the land surface within its field of view (FOV) across five visible bands and one longwave infrared thermal band. The sensor records the radiance and converts it to digital numbers. Imagery is radiometrically corrected, taking into account the sensor calibration, lens distortions, vignette effects, sun angle, and atmospheric effects (scattering and absorption). The photogrammetry software Agisoft PhotoScan v 1.4 is used to align and stitch the images into a larger composite image using the technique of structure from motion image capture to construct a dense cloud and 3D model of the surface, which is used to produce a digital elevation model of the terrain surveyed and orthomosaic imagery. Land surface leaf area index, albedo, and surface skin temperature are provided for the user. The user can perform raster calculations on the imagery to produce various other vegetative indices, which are used to indicate plant health and land surface characteristics, including Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), surface temperature, and Enhanced_vegetation_index (EVI). This code is provided with the readme file for each data set. The images have a resolution of 20-60 cm/pixel, which are subsampled to 100 cm/pixel.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, Volume 3 – Low Rank Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity

Presentation by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) on performance and cost results of utilizing low rank coals and natural gas to produce electricity, including the effects of carbon capture. The coal plants are located in elevated terrain, and the natural gas plants are sited in the same conditions to allow comparability of elevation impacts. The study reports on overall performance of both fuel types, without and with carbon capture, and gives comparisons of the levelized cost of electricity for each unit. This presentation was given at the 2022 Pittsburgh Coal Conference.

James, III, Robert E.↗

Demonstrate multi-turbine simulation with hybrid-structured / unstructured-moving-grid software stack running primarily on GPUs and propose improvements for successful KPP-2

The goal of the ExaWind project is to enable predictive simulations of wind farms comprised of many megawatt-scale turbines situated in complex terrain. Predictive simulations will require computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for which the mesh resolves the geometry of the turbines, capturing the thin boundary layers, and captures the rotation and large deflections of blades. Whereas such simulations for a single turbine are arguably petascale class, multi-turbine wind farm simulations will require exascale-class resources.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Wind Resource Data for Southeast Asia Using a Hybrid Numerical Weather Prediction with Machine Learning Super Resolution Approach

In this work we develop and present a machine learning based downscaling approach using generative adversarial networks (GANs). GANs learn to distinguish the relationships between low-resolution and high-resolution simulations and generate accurate high-resolution output from low-resolution input (Stengel, Glaws, Hettinger, & King, 2020). Low-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations at 9-km spatial and 60-minute temporal resolution were executed over Southeast Asia to provide input to the GANs model. GANs for wind, temperature, and pressure were trained on coarsened WIND Toolkit data with a diverse sampling of terrain and meteorological conditions. After training, the NWP simulations over Southeast Asia were enhanced by 3x along each horizontal spatial dimension and 4x along the temporal dimension. This novel downscaling approach generated 15-year high-resolution wind, temperature, and pressure data from January 2007 through December 2021 at multiple hub heights over Southeast Asia at 3-km spatial and 15-minute temporal resolution with a 16x reduction in compute time over standard dynamical downscaling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Grating-Based Imaging-Scattering with Portable Neutron Generator

Company: Adelphi Technology, Inc. Title: Grating-Based Imaging-Scattering with Portable Neutron Generator PI: Dr. Jay Theodore Cremer, Jr. Topic: 26a Statement of the problem or situation that is being addressed. Successful plant growth depends upon an efficient and robust root system. The plant root is part of a larger system of water and microbial flows in the soil system. While much effort has been exerted to develop an imaging system for water, microbes, and roots, the problem is challenging, and no widely accepted imaging method currently exists. The optical solutions use a highly modified soil system. X-ray imaging methods are insensitive to the soft tissues in the presence of sand. Thermal neutron imaging has been often tested, but found inadequate, due to limited access and low image resolution. This project will develop a new strategy for neutron imaging of plant/soil systems. The project will allow long duration experiments in greenhouse environments and increase the image information content to the micron scale. General statement of how this problem is being addressed. Portable, rugged thermal and fast neutron sources are being developed where portable means a two-soldier team can carry the source and power unit to survey rough terrain for explosives. In the past decade, microfabrication of X-ray and thermal/cold neutron optics has opened a new imaging strategy. The standard transmission image is now supplemented with simultaneous acquisition of a phase contrast image and an image revealing scattering features. In materials science, the interferometric neutron scattering image has been used to detect early crack formation in stressed additive manufacturing test samples. The detection requires sensitivity to scattering features at the 1-micron scale. By addition of our proposed grating-optic to Adelphi Technology’s radiographic/tomographic imaging system, which is based on portable thermal neutron source, the resulting thermal neutron scatter image of the plant/soil system, will reveal details at 1-micron. Commercial Applications and Other Benefits Neutron interferometry imaging has greater penetration through large metal components compared to industrial X-ray imaging. The low-cost, large area optics developed for greenhouse applications, combined with the robust, portable neutron generator, can then be marketed as a system for inspection of additive manufactured components. In the aerospace industry, all freshly printed components are validated with X-ray CT. Scheduled maintenance again requires X-ray CT as the ability to predict aerospace component lifetime does not yet exist. Large aerospace components are only partially observed with X-ray imaging. Key Words Neutron radiography/tomography, grating interferometry, thermal neutron generator imaging, plant root and soil imaging, rhizosphere imaging, deployable neutron imaging systems Summary for Members of Congress A rugged, portable source of thermal neutrons is adapted for neutron interferometry imaging with the addition of low-cost, 3D printed optics. The first application of our proposed deployable, compact thermal neutron generator imaging system, using a grating optic, is plant root/soil science in greenhouse settings and agricultural laboratories.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

User Guide for the Los Alamos National Laboratory Fallout Calculator (V.1.1)

The Los Alamos National Laboratory Fallout Calculator is a Java™ application that can calculate the dose from many nuclear detonations producing fallout. The fallout calculations are performed for one or multiple selected winds. The winds are from the years 2000 to 2010, for all 12 months, and for the 1 st , 10 th , and 20 th of each month. The winds are available from 0 meters to 50,000 meters altitude MSL. This Fallout Calculator performs ideal calculations. There is no terrain. The ground is perfectly flat at sea level. There is no rain that would cause radioactive hot spots. The wind is historical, not a current wind. Also, the wind is fixed in time. It does not vary over the 24 hours it takes the fallout to arrive on the ground. Therefore, this calculator is suitable for operational type studies. For instance, it can be used to calculate the relative difference in fallout patterns from different possible nuclear laydowns. It can be used to understand how frequently fallout would be likely to occur in a particular part of the US. It could be used to develop plans for how to protect the population from a nuclear attack. However, it should not be used to predict the dose in a city from an actual laydown, or to predict safe corridors for the population to use to egress from areas with high fallout.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Multi-shock design tools in double shell models

The essence of the project was to implement a program in python that demonstrated certain models put forth by fusion physicists. Across the time spent at Los Alamos National Laboratory, much was spent programming. Though fundamentally programmatical in nature, the task contained considerable difficulty hid within mathematically deriving and manipulating the models while maintaining data discretization. The result of solving these complications gave invaluable experience in applied mathematics. The final product, a piece of lengthy code, ended up having the full range of desired capabilities, with plans for more. Given the laser power history from a pulse shot on NIF, Omega, or any other Inertial Confinement Fusion facility, the code maps the terrain of radiation temperature inside the hohlraum throughout the period of the shot. Additionally, shock wave convergence prediction was implemented as additional capability. As the name of the project suggests, this tool acts as a compass of direction for researchers designing laser power profiles. Further development of this tool will undoubtedly assist in the research conducted on single and double-shell indirect ICF, consequently expanding the capabilities of operating stewardship over the national nuclear stockpile.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program’s Workshop on the Future of Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (LES): Workshop Report

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is used as a tool to understand physical processes such as turbulence, aerosols, clouds, precipitation, radiation, the interactions among all these, and their interactions with the underlying surface. Over the next 10 years, LES will drive fundamental progress in open scientific questions in these areas as LES is increasingly used to gain understanding of complex interacting physical processes involving atmospheric turbulence. This growth will be driven both by scientific demand and the expansion of computational resources needed to conduct LES, and the form that the growth takes will largely be determined by how computational resources are leveraged for scientific gain. In particular, we suggest that computational resources are likely to be leveraged in two separate but not necessarily distinct ways. On one hand, growth in computational resources will allow LES to be made more routine, that is, performed more frequently, while on the other hand, the computational expense (measured in total floating point operations) afforded to individual LES will expand dramatically, allowing simulations to increase in both domain size and resolution as well as physical detail. Current U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) projects such as LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation Activity (LASSO) are leading the way in conducting routine LES, building large, public databases that are accessible for data science, sensitivity studies, and training for machine learning. LES will also become more routine as it becomes more accessible for individual researchers to address their scientific questions of interest. Scientific questions addressed by LES over the next 10 years are likely to include cloud organization and aggregation; aerosol cloud interactions and atmospheric chemistry (including geo-engineering); urban-scale LES; atmospheric extreme events, ranging from small-scale severe weather to wildfires; and ocean-wave-atmosphere interactions. Further LES-related research will likely grow significantly in areas related to societal impact studies of air quality and extreme weather events, applications to renewable energy forecasting and resource assessment, and aid in decision-making processes. The growth in the use of LES in atmospheric science research will drive the need for better physical process representations (e.g., cloud aerosol microphysics, radiation, and atmospheric chemistry) at the scales resolved by LES. To date, many of the process representations used by LES have been taken directly from coarser-resolution models. Promising methods for LES process representations include superdroplet and quadrature methods for microphysics, 3D approaches for radiation, and better representation of chemistry and aerosol processes. At LES resolution, land-atmosphere interactions for complex terrains, land cover/types, biogeochemistry, and plant canopy models are needed as an improvement beyond traditional and widely used Monin-Obuhkov similarity theory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗