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Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study

At the request of NASA, Deloitte conducted an independent market study to provide an independent assessment on the economic viability of hypersonic and supersonic air transportation to inform ongoing strategic planning of research areas within the government and industry and to focus on the areas for technology development and vehicle design requirements. The Study was organized into three primary areas of investigation: Defining the Market appetite for high speed air transport, Defining the business cases; and Assessing Barriers in the environment. The market demand was assessed across a range of Mach numbers from Mach 2 to Mach 6 and ticket price elasticity was determined by surveying potential customers, literature reviews and stakeholder and expert interviews for passenger aircraft, private aircraft and cargo markets. The business case analyses assessed potential business cases across a three-dimensional trade space: flight speed (Mach 2-6), passenger capacity (20-200 passengers) and design range (2500-7500 nmi.). By using the SpaceWorks Rosetta model, we were able to assess each combination in the trade space and to determine the steady state Internal Rate of Return (IRR or profit) was our primary figure of merit and allowed us to rank order the business cases to understand the trends and draw conclusions from the complex trade space. Lastly, we assessed other potential barriers to high speed flight. These were determined through literature review and stakeholder/expert interviews. Once these were compiled, we developed an objective scoring system to allow us to determine overall significance and challenge to aspiring market entrants. The majority of the research was conducted between July and December of 2020 and the results compiled and communicated to NASA in the first quarter of calendar year 2021. This report, along with the companion briefing deck, document the summation of our research and serve as a data repository for use by future researchers in government and industry.

hypersonic aircraft↗

TO36 Hypersonic Study

Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study. At the request of NASA, Deloitte conducted an independent market study to provide an independent assessment on the economic viability of hypersonic and supersonic air transportation to inform ongoing strategic planning of research areas within the government and industry and to focus on the areas for technology development and vehicle design requirements. The Study was organized into three primary areas of investigation: Defining the Market appetite for high speed air transport, Defining the business cases; and Assessing Barriers in the environment. The market demand was assessed across a range of Mach numbers from Mach 2 to Mach 6 and ticket price elasticity was determined by surveying potential customers, literature reviews and stakeholder and expert interviews for passenger aircraft, private aircraft and cargo markets. The business case analyses assessed potential business cases across a three-dimensional trade space: flight speed (Mach 2-6), passenger capacity (20-200 passengers) and design range (2500-7500 nmi.). By using the SpaceWorks Rosetta model, we were able to assess each combination in the trade space and to determine the steady state Internal Rate of Return (IRR or profit) was our primary figure of merit and allowed us to rank order the business cases to understand the trends and draw conclusions from the complex trade space. Lastly, we assessed other potential barriers to high speed flight. These were determined through literature review and stakeholder/expert interviews. Once these were compiled, we developed an objective scoring system to allow us to determine overall significance and challenge to aspiring market entrants. The majority of the research was conducted between July and December of 2020 and the results compiled and communicated to NASA in the first quarter of calendar year 2021. This report, along with the companion briefing deck, document the summation of our research and serve as a data repository for use by future researchers in government and industry.

hypersonic aircraft↗

Trends and 2025 Insights on the Rise of Electric Vehicles in the USA

Plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) are reshaping the transportation energy landscape, providing a practical alternative to petroleum fuels for a growing number of applications. EV sales grew 55x in the past decade (2014-2024) and 6x since 2020, driven by technological progress enabled by policies to reduce transportation emissions as well as industrial plans motivated by strategic value of EVs for global competitiveness, jobs and geopolitics. In 2024, 22% of passenger cars sold globally were EVs and opportunities for EVs beyond on-road applications are growing, including solutions to electrify off-road vehicles, maritime and aviation. This Review updates and expands our 2020 assessment of the scientific literature and describes the current status and future projections of EV markets, charging infrastructures, vehicle-grid integration and supply chains in the USA. EV is the lowest-emission motorized on-road transportation option, with life-cycle emissions decreasing as electricity emissions continue to decrease. Charging infrastructure grew in line with EV adoption but providing ubiquitous reliable and convenient charging remains a challenge. EVs are reducing electricity costs in several US markets and coordinated EV charging can improve grid resilience and reduce electricity costs for all consumers. The current trajectory of technology improvement and industrial investments points to continued acceleration of EVs.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Propellantless Propulsion Technologies for In-Space Transportation

In order to implement the ambitious science and exploration missions planned over the next several decades, improvements in in-space transportation and propulsion technologies must be achieved. For robotic exploration and science missions, increased efficiencies of future propulsion systems are critical to reduce overall life-cycle costs. Future missions will require 2 to 3 times more total change in velocity over their mission lives than the NASA Solar Electric Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) demonstration on the Deep Space 1 mission. Rendezvous and return missions will require similar investments in in-space propulsion systems. New opportunities to explore beyond the outer planets and to the stars will require unparalleled technology advancement and innovation. The Advanced Space Transportation Program (ASTP) is investing in technologies to achieve a factor of 10 reduction in the cost of Earth orbital transportation and a factor of 2 or 3 reduction in propulsion system mass and travel time for planetary missions within the next 15 years. Since more than 70% of projected launches over the next 10 years will require propulsion systems capable of attaining destinations beyond Low Earth Orbit, investment in in-space technologies will benefit a large percentage of future missions. Some of the most promising technologies for achieving these goals use the environment of space itself for energy and propulsion and are generically called, "propellantless" because they do not require on-board fuel to achieve thrust. An overview of the state-of-the-art in propellantless propulsion technologies such as solar and plasma sails, electrodynamic and momentum transfer tethers, and aeroassist and aerocapture will be described. Results of recent earth-based technology demonstrations and space tests will also be discussed.

Johnson, Les↗

Impacts and emerging research opportunities in Vehicle-Grid Integration for transportation: A review

This review provides a comprehensive examination of Vehicle-Grid Integration (VGI) technologies and their impacts on transportation systems, with a particular emphasis on the transportation-energy nexus. It systematically explores how VGI affects key transportation applications such as charging infrastructure planning, electric vehicle (EV) routing, smart charging coordination, shared mobility, and dynamic pricing. By synthesizing recent literature from both transportation and energy systems perspectives, this study highlights how advanced methodologies, such as reinforcement learning, game theory, and optimization techniques, are used to model the complex interactions between EVs, mobility patterns, and distributed energy systems. Furthermore, the review also identifies critical challenges, including behavioral factors, data limitations, and system scalability. Drawing on these insights, the paper outlines emerging research opportunities to support the design of integrated, resilient, and user-centric VGI solutions that advance sustainable mobility and energy system efficiency.

Charging coordination↗

Reactive transport modeling of the Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) system at Stockton University, New Jersey during seasonal operations

Hydrogeochemical processes associated with Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) operations can often impact the system performance owing to mineral precipitation either at the wellbore or in the aquifer owing to changes in temperature and fluid disequilibria. Although failure of ATES systems due to mineral precipitation ("fouling") is common, predictive reactive-transport models have rarely been applied to plan their design and operation. Here, the objective of this study is to develop a reactive-transport model by coupling thermal, hydrological, and chemical (THC) processes to evaluate effects of introduced atmospheric oxygen on water chemistry, mineral precipitation/dissolution, porosity, and permeability changes associated with an ATES system at Stockton University (New Jersey, USA). The THC model builds on a Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical (THM) model of the site that evaluated system failure owing to possible fracturing in the caprock or around the wellbore. The causes of the system failure are not known – potential causes include hydraulic fracturing owing to elevated pump pressures that took place, a flow pathway created by one of the boreholes, or a pre-existing natural hydrologic connection between the upper unconfined aquifer and the ATES aquifer, any of which could have led to oxygenated water entering the reservoir and causing the observed Fe-oxide fouling on well screens. The THC model is used to evaluate some of the hypotheses and observations regarding system failure owing to geochemical processes. The reactive-transport code TOUGHREACT V4 was used to model the THC processes during seasonal heating and cooling operations at the Stockton ATES site over 6 years of operation. In the THC simulations, the primary effects on geochemistry were observed when the injection water is saturated with atmospheric oxygen. Simulations show greater precipitation of goethite near the cold wells as compared to the warm wells. Although volume fractions of Fe-hydroxides were relatively small, the model was aimed at processes in the aquifer at the scale of meters and larger rather than at the scale of mm or cm (i.e., a well screen). Kaolinite is the dominant precipitating phase, also around the cold wells. Illite dissolves near the cold wells and precipitates near the warm wells. There is a net decrease in the porosity near the cold wells and increase near the warm wells, although a slight amount of thermal contraction near the cold wells and expansion near the warm wells is responsible for a significant proportion of the porosity change. Owing to the coarse discretization of the numerical grid near the wells (compared to the screen thickness) the magnitude of permeability changes at the wellbore are likely underestimated. The reactive transport model in this study can be used for characterization of aquifers, optimizing the operational parameters (temperature, pressure, pH etc.), and planning of mitigation strategies for ATES systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Package Performance Study: A Historical Perspective and Planning for a Path Forward

The topic of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation often draws public attention and concerns regarding safety, and with large-scale shipping campaigns expected in the future, public interest is anticipated to substantially increase. In 1999, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) began an initiative called the Package Performance Study (PPS) that initially focused on SNF transportation cask responses to severe transportation accidents. A public participation approach was to be used to help guide the scope and parameters of the study, which was also to consider using full-scale physical testing of a SNF transportation cask, where appropriate. In 2010, the NRC decided not to go forward with physical testing as proposed. In 2006, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) conducted a study on SNF and high-level radioactive waste transportation in the United States. The NAS study recommended that full-scale cask testing, as well as other accepted methodologies, continue to be used as part of the package performance evaluation. In 2012, the Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future (BRC) recommended conducting the PPS with a full-scale rail transportation cask for the purpose of building public trust and confidence in the safety of SNF transport. In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) restarted a consent-based siting process, focusing on how to site federal facilities for the interim consolidated storage of SNF using a consent-based approach. Large-scale SNF transportation would be necessary for any such interim storage facility. As the planning activities begin for future large-scale shipping campaigns, the DOE is considering options for conducting a DOE-led PPS to help build public trust and confidence in the transportation of SNF. Therefore, the DOE is gathering information related to the previous NRC-led PPS efforts, as well as applicable international experience with the testing of SNF packages. This paper discusses previous NRC efforts, as well as the current status of a DOE-led PPS, which is in the early planning stages.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Energy-Efficient and Resilient Infrastructure: Simulation, Validation, and Installation

Advanced, high-performance computing at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has enabled access to vast data resources with cutting-edge software techniques to understand, design, plan for, and maintain energy-efficient and resilient infrastructure. We have focused on cities and airports, but the technology we have developed will easily translate to seaports, inland ports, military installations, or other complex and large-scale energy-intensive systems. We can digitally simulate and explore current and future scenarios to make datadriven decisions for optimizing advanced energy systems, transportation and building operations, infrastructure planning and expansion, and battery storage to guide short- and long-term investments, electrification strategies, and integration of new technologies.

Athena↗

A study on the utilization of advanced composites in commercial aircraft wing structure: Executive summary

The overall wing study objectives are to study and plan the effort by commercial transport aircraft manufacturers to accomplish the transition from current conventional materials and practices to extensive use of advanced composites in wings of aircraft that will enter service in the 1985-1990 time period. Specific wing study objectives are to define the technology and data needed to support an aircraft manufacturer's commitment to utilize composites primary wing structure in future production aircraft and to develop plans for a composite wing technology program which will provide the needed technology and data.

Watts, D. J.↗

A Review on Simulation Platforms for Agent-Based Modeling in Electrified Transportation

As the use of combustion engine vehicles plays a deciding role in global warming, we can observe a trend to replace them with electric vehicles (EV) driven by new environmentally conscious policies and increasing technological capabilities. With improvements in driving range and reduction in prices come new challenges that may hamper the progress towards complete battery driven transportation. A major challenge for the increasing EV adoption is the planning of extensions to existing infrastructure or the inclusion of new infrastructure components in the planning process. This demands increasingly complex planning tools that can simulate the interplay between different stakeholders in modern transportation scenarios such as EVs, charging stations, energy providers, and general transportation participants. Simulation platforms for agent-based modeling in transportation have been developed as effective interactive tools that allow planners to explore different trade-offs across different scenarios with the ability to simulate the impact of policy or infrastructure decisions on the different stakeholders in the simulation. This article surveys several of the major simulation platforms that include modern EV-based forms of transportation and allow the simulation of relevant infrastructure components alongside the well established transportation simulations. These tools allow researchers to analyze expected traffic flow, identify possible charging station locations based on area demand, predict electrical grid demand, and more. Here this survey intends to make it easier for researchers to identify and apply a simulation platform in the context of supporting the increasing electrification of the transportation sector, enabling more efficient simulation and planning capabilities in this domain.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Galileo Mission (Tier 2)

This Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) addresses the proposed action of completing the preparation and operation of the Galileo spacecraft, including its planned launch on the Space Transportation System (STS) Shuttle in October 1989, and the alternative of canceling further work on the mission. The Tier 1 (program level) EIS (NASA 1988a) considered the Titan IV launch vehicle as an alternative booster stage for launch in May 1991 or later. The May 1991 Venus launch opportunity is considered a planetary back-up for the Magellan (Venus Radar Mapper) mission, the Galileo mission, and the Ulysses mission. Plans were underway to enable the use of a Titan IV launch vehicle for the planetary back-up. However, in November 1988, the U.S. Air Force, which procures the Titan IV for NASA, notified NASA that it could not provide a Titan IV vehicle for the May 1991 launch opportunity due to high priority Department of Defense requirements. Consequently, NASA terminated all mission planning for the Titan IV planetary back-up. A minimum of 3 years is required to implement mission-specific modifications to the basic Titan IV launch configuration; therefore, insufficient time is available to use a Titan IV vehicle in May 1991. Thus, the Titan IV launch vehicle is no longer a feasible alternative to the STS/Inertial Upper Stage (IUS) for the May 1991 launch opportunity.

Source record↗

A Preliminary Study of V/STOL Transport Aircraft and Bibliography of NASA Research in the VTOL-STOL Field

This group of papers was prepared by the staff of the Langley Research Center to assist in planning for future commercial air-transport facilities in the New York metropolitan area. Areas of particular interest were predictions regarding the types of V/STOL aircraft that are likely to be developed for various commercial transport applications, estimates of the performance and probable operating procedures for such aircraft, and the approximate dates these aircraft could be available for use. Although the NASA has made no comprehensive studies of this type, the extensive research program in the VTOL-STOL field during the last 10 years appeared to provide a source for some of the desired information . The five papers included herein were therefore prepared to summarize pertinent available material in a form suitable for the intended use. In several instances, new studies and analysis were required to provide the necessary information, but because of a time deadline, many of the significant points received only a cursory examination. For example, much of the quantitative data used in the papers for making generalized comparisons was obtained by approximate methods and is not considered appropriate for use in applications where precise estimates are required. It should be recognized, then, that the treatment of the V/STOL transport provided by this group of papers is necessarily of a preliminary nature.

Source record↗

Oregon Rivers Characterization Tool

DHS’s Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) undertook the Oregon State Transportation Systems RRAP project between 2018-2021 to assess the seismic vulnerabilities of the state’s transportation system to a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake (CISA 2021). The project primarily focused on the effects of a CSZ earthquake on the mobility of emergency response efforts into the region. In the event that bridges located at crucial river crossings fail during a CSZ earthquake, rivers will become natural barriers affecting the ability to support response and recovery efforts. The characteristics of rivers (e.g., width, depth, and flow) are critical data to inform planning for the recovery of transportation systems across river barriers and determine reopening times following a CSZ earthquake. As part of the transportation system assessment, an Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) project team developed a River Characterization Tool (RCT) to quantify the physical characteristics of the river system in Oregon, which can be used to inform a system-level analysis of transportation recovery and reopening times. This report mainly discusses approaches, methods, development, and applications of the RCT. The use of the river data generated from this tool for a system-level analysis of transportation recovery is discussed in the Oregon Transportation Systems RRAP Resiliency Assessment report (CISA 2021). The primary goal of the RCT is to generate statewide dataset of widths, depths, and flows for all rivers across Oregon to assess the effects of river barriers on emergency response and recovery efforts following a CSZ earthquake. The RCT leverages remote sensing data that multispectral sensors collect from satellites, employs a deep learning model to characterize river predictions, and computes river channel geometric dimensions with hydraulic relationships and river predictions. The entire process of river characterization is automated and implemented through the RCT.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration (SAFER) Plan for Corrective Action Unit 114: Area 25 EMAD Facility Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, (Rev.0, with ROTC 1)

This Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration (SAFER) Plan addresses the actions needed to achieve closure for Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 114, Area 25 EMAD Facility, identified in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO). CAU 114 comprises the following corrective action sites (CASs) located in Area 25 of the Nevada National Security Site (formerly, the Nevada Test Site): 25-41-03, EMAD Facility; 25-99-23, Manned Control Car (MCC) and Engine Installation Vehicle (EIV); and 25-33-05, Building 3901, Engine Transport System Maintenance Building. This plan provides the methodology for field activities needed to gather the necessary information for closing CAU 114. There is sufficient information and process knowledge from historical documentation and investigations of similar sites regarding the expected nature and extent of potential contaminants to recommend closure of CAU 114 using the SAFER process. Additional information will be obtained by conducting a field investigation before selecting the appropriate corrective actions for CAU 114. It is anticipated that the results of the field investigation and implementation of corrective actions will support a defensible recommendation that no further corrective action is necessary. The purpose of the corrective action investigation will be to document and verify the adequacy of existing information; to affirm the decision for either clean closure, closure in place, or no further action; and to provide sufficient data to implement the corrective action. The actual corrective action selected will be based on characterization activities implemented under this SAFER Plan. If specific conditions or findings fall outside the bounds of the SAFER Plan, the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) will be consulted to determine the path forward before proceeding. Upon completion of SAFER activities, a closure report will be prepared and submitted to NDEP for review and approval. The schedule for completion of the closure report will be established at the FFACO annual meeting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vehicle Technologies Fiscal Year 2025 Annual Report

Research and development at NLR supports the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office in advancing low-cost, abundant, and secure energy technologies to accelerate a more affordable, reliable, efficient, and globally competitive U.S. transportation system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Fate and transport of unruptured tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles in the event of environmental release for advanced and micro reactor applications

Advanced nuclear reactor designs and advanced fuel types offer safety features that may reduce environmental consequences in an accident scenario when compared to conventional reactors and fuels. One advanced reactor fuel is tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles which are approximately 0.9 mm in diameter. TRISO particle mobility, assuming the particle is unruptured and the encapsulated radionuclides are contained, was explored through a theoretical examination of mobility through atmospheric, soil and groundwater, surface water, and non-human biota transport pathways. TRISO particles are too large and dense to travel in the atmosphere except under extreme conditions. TRISO particles are too large to penetrate most soil profiles and so cannot be transported with groundwater. TRISO particles will settle out of the water column in surface waters but the transport will depend on the energy of the body of water and likelihood of extreme dispersion events. TRISO particles could be transported by non-human biota. The size of TRISO particles could allow them to be intentionally moved by non-human biota if they are ingested as a gastrolith or if they are mistaken for something in the organism’s diet. Generally, TRISO particles will have reduced environmental mobility compared to releases of radionuclides in the event of an accident in a conventional nuclear reactor. The extent of transport has implications in emergency planning zone designations and other considerations for licensing and deploying TRISO-fueled reactors. Finally, further research and experimental work exploring TRISO particle mobility is required to understand the full environmental mobility of TRISO particles.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Modelling of Trapped Radiation Near Jupiter

Energetic (62 to approx. 130 MeV) proton fluxes measured with the Galileo Probe inside Jupiter's main ring (radii 122,500 to 128,940 km) show a modest increase as Jupiter is approached. Solutions of a reduced (1-d) equatorial diffusion equation with-constant losses described by a lifetime tau match those data for tau greater than or equal to 10(exp 9) s for diffusion coefficient D(sub LL) = 10(exp -9) L(exp 4)/s, 10(exp -9) L(exp -3)/s, or 10(exp -10) L(exp 4)/s (this particle population may be undergoing nearly loss-free inward radial diffusion). Tau would increase as Jupiter is approached if its value were determined by pitch angle scattering due to EM wave-particle interactions. if the absolute amplitudes of the waves' magnetic fluctuations did not vary with radial distance. Exploration of numerical solutions of the diffusive transport equation for Jupiter's magnetospheric ions at die planetary ring and closer to Jupiter has been done. Explicit range-energy relationships for energy loss in ring matter (SiO2), modeled as a continuous disk, are incorporated. A spatial resolution of approx. 1000 km in the radial direction is used in the vicinity of the main ring; off-equatorial ion fluxes have been included (assuming the atmosphere is a perfect absorber). For protons the maximum effect of energy loss in the microscopic size range of ring particles is expected at energies approx. 0.1 Mev. Presumably there could be sufficiently large, unobserved bodies within the ring that would have to be modeled as discrete objects, as planetary satellites would be. Within limitations of the model and computational resources it's planned to characterize solutions for transport of magnetospheric ions past the planetary ring; the procedures that are used are fairly well known and may be applied generally to the simpler magnetospheric models.

Mihalov, John D.↗

Water Availability for Biorefineries in the Contiguous United States and the Implications for Bioenergy Production Distribution

Renewable biofuel production depends on many factors, including feedstock availability, refinery and shipment infrastructure, and in particular, water availability. This study assesses water requirement and availability for mainstream biorefinery technologies in the contiguous United States (CONUS). The assessment is conducted in newly defined spatial units, namely, biorefinery planning boundaries, considering feedstock availability, transportation cost, and refinery capacity requirement for cost-effectiveness. The results suggest that the total biorefinery water use in the CONUS by 2030 will be low compared to the total water availability. However, biorefinery water requirements can aggravate the water stress situation in many regions, including the Great Plains, California Central Valley, and the upper Columbia-Snake River basin in Washington. Bioenergy productions in these regions can be largely constrained by water. Here, it is projected that biofuel production will concentrate in Northern Plains, Lake States, and Corn Belt regions, which contribute 94.4% of the conventional, 86.1% of biodiesel, and 54.8% of cellulosic biofuel production mandated by the renewable fuel standard. If biorefineries are constrained to use less than 10% of the locally available water, up to 7% of planned cellulosic biofuel production will be affected. Findings from this study can aid the sustainable planning of national bioenergy production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗