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At least 361 records · Page 20

Characterization of silicon drift detectors with electrons for the TRISTAN project

Sterile neutrinos are a minimal extension of the standard model of particle physics. A promising model-independent way to search for sterile neutrinos is via high-precision β-spectroscopy. The Karlsruhe tritium neutrino (KATRIN) experiment, equipped with a novel multi-pixel silicon drift detector focal plane array and read-out system, named the TRISTAN detector, has the potential to supersede the sensitivity of previous laboratory-based searches. In this work we present the characterization of the first silicon drift detector prototypes with electrons and we investigate the impact of uncertainties of the detector’s response to electrons on the final sterile neutrino sensitivity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

SBND Detector Status and First Results

The Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) is one of three liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) neutrino detectors positioned along the axis of the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at Fermilab, and serves as the near detector in the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program. The detector just completed its second year of running, collecting over 6.5e20 POT, equivalent to an unprecedented sample of over 5 million neutrino interactions. Initial data has demonstrated superb performance of the detector’s subsystems, enabling precise tracking and calorimetric reconstruction of events. With this large statistical data set, SBND is performing multi-dimensional cross section measurements of inclusive and exclusive topologies and precise searches for beyond the Standard Model (BSM) processes. As the near detector in the SBN Program, it will enable the full potential of the joint sterile neutrino measurements program by precisely characterizing the unoscillated neutrino beam, constraining BNB flux and neutrino-argon cross-section systematic uncertainties. In this talk, the current status of the experiment, first results from SBND’s neutrino interaction program, as well as status and prospects for BSM and oscillation searches are discussed.

Paton, Josephine [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000032651489↗

Underwater Noise Measurements around a Tidal Turbine in a Busy Port Setting

Acoustic emissions from current energy converters remain an environmental concern for regulators because of their potential effects on marine life and uncertainties about their effects stemming from a lack of sufficient observational data. Several recent opportunities to characterize tidal turbine sound emissions have begun to fill knowledge gaps and provide a context for future device deployments. In July 2021, a commercial-off-the-shelf hydrophone was deployed in a free-drifting configuration to measure underwater acoustic emissions and characterize a 25 kW-rated tidal turbine at the University of New Hampshire’s Living Bridge Project in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. Sampling methods and analysis were performed in alignment with the recently published IEC 62600-40 Technical Specification for acoustic characterization of marine energy converters. Results from this study indicate acoustic emissions from the turbine were below ambient sound levels and therefore did not have a significant impact on the underwater noise levels of the project site. As a component of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Triton Field Trials (TFiT) described in this Special Issue, this effort provides a valuable use case for the IEC 62600-40 Technical Specification framework and further recommendations for cost-effective technologies and methods for measuring underwater noise at future current energy converter project sites.

tidal turbine↗

Use of Compton suppression gamma ray spectrometry to determine 239 Pu

We report 239 Pu has been characterized by gamma-ray spectroscopy for a level higher than the usual environmental ones typically needing alpha spectrometry, ICP-MS or TIMS. The higher activities typically have applications in reprocessing, safeguards verification, and nuclear forensics. For activities of hundreds of Bq/g, it is possible to use gamma ray spectrometry for 239 Pu characterization. A soil reference standard of 185 Bq/g (75 ng/g) was measured on a 79% efficient HPGe with a digital Compton suppression system. The ratios of the counting statistics for suppressed and unsuppressed uncertainties for various 239 Pu photopeaks were determined. The effects of self-attenuation on the low energy gamma rays were evaluated, and it was determined that Compton suppression was an effective characterization method of 239 Pu after accounting for self-attenuation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Raman Spectroscopy Based On-Line, Real-Time Monitoring to Reduce Composition Uncertainties: Enhanced sensitivity through optimization of Raman Parameters

Optical spectroscopy-based on-line monitoring of Hanford processing streams can enable real-time characterization of chemical composition of process streams and batches, ultimately enabling and enhancing process control. It can provide immediate feedback on process conditions and has the potential to reduce the needed number of grab sample collections, thereby reducing times and costs associated with laboratory processing. Here we discuss the utilization of Raman spectroscopy to quantify multiple target analytes that are common within Hanford tanks and waste processing streams. Analytes include: nitrate, nitrite, carbonate, chromate, sulfate, phosphate, hydroxide, oxalate, ammonia, and aluminate. Most notably in this work, Raman applications to low-concentration streams are explored and optimized. Raman instrument specifications are compared; specifically, the impact of utilizing three different Raman excitation wavelengths, 405, 532, and 671 nm, is discussed. Also, Raman data collection parameters such as collection time and spectral averaging are measured and discussed. Finally, optical libraries of chemical targets were collected using optimized collection parameters and chemometric models were built to automate quantification of chemical targets. These models were validated through application to simulants and real Hanford process samples. Chemometric models performed well on both training and validation sets, suggesting these approaches can be successfully applied to on-line and real-time monitoring of low concentration Hanford processing streams. The use of the combine Raman wave lengths with the enhanced chemometric models for the low concentration streams significantly improved the chemical detection levels and significantly reduced uncertainties of those measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A framework for detection and attribution of regional precipitation change: Application to the United States historical record

Abstract Despite the emerging influence of anthropogenic climate change on the global water cycle, at regional scales the combination of observational uncertainty, large internal variability, and modeling uncertainty undermine robust statements regarding the human influence on precipitation. Here, we use output from global climate models in a perfect-data sense to develop a framework for conducting regional detection and attribution (D&A) for precipitation, starting with the contiguous United States (CONUS) where observational uncertainty is lower than in other regions. Our unified approach can simultaneously detect systematic trends in mean and extreme precipitation, attribute trends to anthropogenic forcings, compute the effects of forcings as a function of time, and map the effects of individual forcings. Model output is used to conduct a set of tests that yield a parsimonious representation for characterizing seasonal precipitation over the CONUS for the historical record (1900 to present day), which ensures our D&A is insensitive to structural uncertainty. Our framework is developed using synthetic data in a Pearl-causal perspective wherein causality can be identified using intervention-based simulations. While the hypothesis-based framework and accompanying generalized D&A formula we develop should be widely applicable, we include a strong caution that the hypothesis-guided simplification of the formula for the historical climatic record of CONUS as described in this paper will likely fail to hold in other geographic regions and under future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Method of Distributions for Two‐Phase Flow in Heterogeneous Porous Media

Abstract Multiscale heterogeneity and insufficient characterization data for a specific subsurface formation of interest render predictions of multi‐phase fluid flow in geologic formations highly uncertain. Quantification of the uncertainty propagation from the geomodel to the fluid‐flow response is typically done within a probabilistic framework. This task is computationally demanding due to, for example, the slow convergence of Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), especially when computing the tails of a distribution that are necessary for risk assessment and decision‐making under uncertainty. The frozen streamlines method (FROST) accelerates probabilistic predictions of immiscible two‐phase fluid flow problems; however, FROST relies on MCS to compute the travel‐time distribution, which is then used to perform the transport (phase saturation) computations. To alleviate this computational bottleneck, we replace MCS with a deterministic equation for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of travel time. The resulting CDF‐FROST approach yields the CDF of the saturation field without resorting to sampling‐based strategies. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the high accuracy of CDF‐FROST in computing the CDFs of both saturation and travel time. For the same accuracy, it is about 5 and 10 times faster than FROST and MCS, respectively.

Yang, Hyung Jun↗

Exploiting 20 Ne Isotopes for Precision Characterizations of Collectivity in Small Systems

Whether or not femto-scale droplets of quark-gluon plasma (QGP) are formed in so-called small systems at high-energy colliders is a pressing question in the phenomenology of the strong interaction. For proton-proton or proton-nucleus collisions the answer is inconclusive due to the large theoretical uncertainties plaguing the description of these processes. While upcoming data on collisions of 16 O nuclei may mitigate these uncertainties in the near future, here we demonstrate the unique possibilities offered by complementing 16 O + 16 O data with collisions of 20 Ne ions. We couple both nuclear lattice effective field theory (NLEFT) and projected generator coordinate method (PGCM) ab initio descriptions of the structure of 20 Ne and 16 O to hydrodynamic simulations of 16 O + 16 O and 20 Ne + 20 Ne collisions at high energy. We isolate the imprints of the bowling-pin shape of 20 Ne on the collective flow of hadrons, which can be used to perform quantitative tests of the hydrodynamic QGP paradigm. In particular, we predict that the elliptic flow of 20 Ne + 20 Ne collisions is enhanced by as much as 1.174⁢(8) stat ⁢(31) syst for NLEFT and 1.139⁢(6) stat ⁢(39) syst for PGCM relative to 16 O + 16 O collisions for the 1% most central events. At the same time, theoretical uncertainties largely cancel when studying relative variations of observables between two systems. This demonstrates a method based on experiments with two light-ion species for precision characterizations of the collective dynamics and its emergence in a small system.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DEEPEN: Final 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

Part of the DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology, detailed in the journal article below, is based on the method proposed by Poux & O'brien (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., (2022). For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Conditional Pseudo-Reversible Normalizing Flow for Surrogate Modeling in Quantifying Uncertainty Propagation

We introduce a conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow (PR-NF) that directly learns conditional probability distributions from noisy physical models to efficiently quantify both forward and inverse uncertainty propagation. Traditional surrogate modeling approaches approximate only the deterministic component of physical models, requiring separate noise characterization and computationally expensive sampling methods for inverse problems. Here, in this work, we develop the conditional PR-NF model to directly learn and efficiently generate samples from the conditional probability density functions (PDFs). The training process utilizes dataset consisting of input-output pairs without requiring prior knowledge about the noise and the function. Once trained, our model efficiently generates samples from conditional PDFs for any input within the training domain. Moreover, the pseudo-reversibility feature allows for the use of fully connected neural network architectures, which simplifies the implementation and enables theoretical analysis. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis of the conditional PR-NF model, showing its ability to converge to the target conditional PDF using the Kullback−Leibler divergence. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we apply it to several benchmark tests and a real-world geologic carbon storage problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Constraining and Characterizing the Size of Atmospheric Rivers: A Perspective Independent From the Detection Algorithm

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (AR) are large and narrow filaments of poleward horizontal water vapor transport. Because of its direct relationship with horizontal vapor transport, extreme precipitation, and overall AR impacts over land, the AR size is an important characteristic that needs to be better understood. Current AR detection and tracking algorithms have resulted in large uncertainty in estimating AR sizes, with areas varying over several orders of magnitude among different detection methods. We develop and implement five independent size estimation methods to characterize the size of ARs that make landfall over the west coast of North America in the 1980–2017 period and reduce the range of size estimation from ARTMIP. ARs that originate in the Northwest Pacific (WP) (100°−180°E) have larger sizes and are more zonally oriented than those from the Northeast Pacific (EP) (180°−240°E). ARs become smaller through their life cycle, mainly due to reductions in their width. They also become more meridionally oriented toward the end of their life cycle. Overall, the size estimation methods proposed in this study provide a range of AR areas (between 7 × 10 11 and 10 13 m 2 ), that is, several orders of magnitude narrower than current methods estimation. This methodology can provide statistical constraints in size and geometry for the AR detection and tracking algorithms, and an objective insight for future studies about AR size changes under different climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Bayesian approach to nanoparticle characterization

We introduce and numerically validate a Bayesian method for plasmonic nanometrology. Applicable to any system described by a scattering cross section, our approach quantifies uncertainty automatically and enables model comparison through Bayes factors.

Lukens, Joseph↗

A LENS on DUNE-PRISM: Characterizing a Neutrino Beam with Off-Axis Measurements

Upcoming precision long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments will be severely limited by the large systematic uncertainties associated with neutrino flux predictions and neutrino--nucleus cross sections. A promising remedy is the PRISM (Precision Reaction Independent Spectrum Measurement) technique, whereby the near detector measures the neutrino spectrum at different angles with respect to the beam axis. These measurements are then linearly combined into a prediction of the oscillated neutrino flux at the far detector. This prediction is data-driven, but still dependent on some theoretical knowledge about the neutrino flux. In this paper, we study to what extent off-axis measurements themselves can be used to directly constrain neutrino flux models. In particular, we use them to extract separately the fluxes and spectra of different meson species in the beam. We call this measurement LENS (Lateral Extraction of Neutrino Spectra). Second, we demonstrate how the thus improved flux model helps to further constrain the far detector flux prediction, thereby ultimately improving oscillation measurements.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

Determination of nuclear PDFs using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Global QCD analyses of nuclear parton distribution functions (nPDFs) have traditionally relied on the Hessian method for uncertainty estimation. However, the inherent Gaussian approximation and reliance on local curvature often prove insufficient for nPDF fits, which are frequently characterized by limited data constraints and non-Gaussian likelihoods. In this paper, we present the first nPDF determination based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques, implemented within the nCTEQ framework using an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The MCMC approach enables a direct mapping of the posterior distribution and reveals a highly nontrivial parameter-space structure, including multiple modes and pronounced non-Gaussian behavior, particularly for the valence PDFs. We perform the first single-nucleus global analysis of lead PDFs using exclusively lead data and compare it to a multi-nuclei fit employing a standard analytic A dependence. The inclusion of lighter nuclei reduces quark uncertainties and modifies the shape of the lead PDFs, while leaving the gluon distribution largely unaffected. A complementary Hessian analysis exposes systematic limitations of the Gaussian approximation. Our results demonstrate that MCMC methods provide a more reliable framework for uncertainty quantification in nPDF determinations.

Derakhshanian, N. [Institute of Nuclear Physics Po↗

Pareto solutions in multicriteria optimization under uncertainty

We present and analyze several definitions of Pareto optimality for multicriteria optimization or decision problems with uncertainty primarily in their objective function values. In comparison to related notions of Pareto robustness, we first provide a full characterization of an alternative efficient set hierarchy that is based on six different ordering relations both with respect to the multiple objectives and a possibly finite, countably infinite or uncountable number of scenarios. We then establish several scalarization results for the generation of the corresponding efficient points using generalized weighted-sum and epsilon-constraint techniques. Finally, we leverage these scalarization results to also derive more general conditions for the existence of efficient points in each of the corresponding optimality classes, under suitable assumptions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multi-Factor-Coupled, Ahead-of-Time Aggregation of Power Flexibility Under Forecast Uncertainty

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) is significantly reshaping the role of distribution systems under active energy management. To aggregate the active-reactive power flexibility of DERs dispersed at the feeder and provide capacity support to the transmission system, it is essential to efficiently identify feasible substation power injection trajectories. This paper introduces a novel ahead-of-time flexibility characterization method to address it. First, a polyhedral non-feeder-level power flexibility region (PFR) is constructed, accounting for various time-dependent, power-coupled, and forecast error uncertainties. Then, a polyhedral feeder-level PFR is analytically derived through a coordinate transformation, which can reveal the uncertainty propagation path, i.e., how uncertainty applies to the feeder-level PFR. To facilitate the high-level application, a tractable chance-constrained Chebyshev centering optimization model is further developed to find a ball-shaped inner approximation of the feeder-level PFR. Finally, the proposed method is validated on a modified IEEE 123-bus test system. Here, both theoretical and experimental results show that, with appropriate robustness parameter settings, the proposed method can make the approximated PFR less conservative with abundant robustness against forecast error uncertainty.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

QUIJOTE scientific results – IV. A northern sky survey in intensity and polarization at 10–20 GHz with the multifrequency instrument

ABSTRACT We present QUIJOTE intensity and polarization maps in four frequency bands centred around 11, 13, 17, and 19 GHz, and covering approximately 29 000 deg2, including most of the northern sky region. These maps result from 9000 h of observations taken between May 2013 and June 2018 with the first QUIJOTE multifrequency instrument (MFI), and have angular resolutions of around 1°, and sensitivities in polarization within the range 35–40 µK per 1° beam, being a factor ∼2–4 worse in intensity. We discuss the data processing pipeline employed, and the basic characteristics of the maps in terms of real space statistics and angular power spectra. A number of validation tests have been applied to characterize the accuracy of the calibration and the residual level of systematic effects, finding a conservative overall calibration uncertainty of 5 per cent. We also discuss flux densities for four bright celestial sources (Tau A, Cas A, Cyg A, and 3C274), which are often used as calibrators at microwave frequencies. The polarization signal in our maps is dominated by synchrotron emission. The distribution of spectral index values between the 11 GHz and WMAP 23 GHz map peaks at β = −3.09 with a standard deviation of 0.14. The measured BB/EE ratio at scales of ℓ = 80 is 0.26 ± 0.07 for a Galactic cut |b| > 10°. We find a positive TE correlation for 11 GHz at large angular scales (ℓ ≲ 50), while the EB and TB signals are consistent with zero in the multipole range 30 ≲ ℓ ≲ 150. The maps discussed in this paper are publicly available.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Probabilistic inference of the structure and orbit of Milky Way satellites with semi-analytic modelling

Semi-analytic modelling furnishes an efficient avenue for characterizing dark matter haloes associated with satellites of Milky Way-like systems, as it easily accounts for uncertainties arising from halo-to-halo variance, the orbital disruption of satellites, baryonic feedback, and the stellar-to-halo mass (SMHM) relation. We use the SatGen semi-analytic satellite generator, which incorporates both empirical models of the galaxy–halo connection as well as analytic prescriptions for the orbital evolution of these satellites after accretion onto a host to create large samples of Milky Way-like systems and their satellites. By selecting satellites in the sample that match observed properties of a particular dwarf galaxy, we can infer arbitrary properties of the satellite galaxy within the cold dark matter paradigm. For the Milky Way’s classical dwarfs, we provide inferred values (with associated uncertainties) for the maximum circular velocity v max and the radius r max at which it occurs, varying over two choices of baryonic feedback model and two prescriptions for the SMHM relation. While simple empirical scaling relations can recover the median inferred value for v max and r max , this approach provides realistic correlated uncertainties and aids interpretability. We also demonstrate how the internal properties of a satellite’s dark matter profile correlate with its orbit, and we show that it is difficult to reproduce observations of the Fornax dwarf without strong baryonic feedback. Furthermore, the technique developed in this work is flexible in its application of observational data and can leverage arbitrary information about the satellite galaxies to make inferences about their dark matter haloes and population statistics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗