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Decision Aid for Conjunction Risk Mitigation by Differential Drag

In the previous five years, the rate of conjunctions that the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team processed and analyzed has more than tripled. (NASA CARA, 2024) New missions in the early development phases are now required to plan for dealing with conjunctions under the present space environment, and also projecting forward into a future likely with even further increased utilization of the space environment. Some missions are investigating the possibility of using differential drag to remediate conjunctions without expending limited fuel or for missions without propulsive capabilities. The NASA CARA team studied the historical record of conjunctions to evaluate the circumstances under which differential drag may be successfully applied and have developed a series of tables to use as a decision aid for missions considering differential drag. Currently, if a CARA-protected mission with maneuvering capabilities is predicted to have a conjunction with probability of collision (Pc) greater than 7E-5 (the default value of the ‘yellow threshold’, which may have some other value agreed by CARA and the mission during the Orbital Collison Avoidance Planning (OCAP) process), CARA will use its Maneuver Trade Space (MTS) tool to evaluate and recommend options for the timing and magnitude of a risk mitigation maneuver (RMM), based on the mission’s capabilities. If the conjunction’s Pc is greater than 1E-4, the ‘red threshold’, then an RMM must be executed per NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8079.1 (NASA, 2023), although missions may execute an RMM even if the Pc is lower. The magnitude of the maneuver is typically a few cm/s, and CARA estimates how many will be required for the mission’s nominal lifetime – typically a few per year – during the OCAP process, to inform the mission’s delta-V requirement. For traditional satellites, this is usually smaller than other requirements for orbit insertion, maintenance, and disposal, but for CubeSats or other small satellite missions, a propulsion system may not provide much more than a few cm/s of delta-V or may not fit at all within the available budget of money, time, size, weight, and/or power (SWaP). Conversely, CubeSats often have deployable solar panels, which offer the capacity to have much higher areas facing some directions than others. Such a mission can instead use ‘differential drag’ to remediate a conjunction -- in other words, change its drag area (usually increasing) to deviate from the predicted collision course. This is how Planet’s Dove spacecraft maintain their formations and remediate conjunction risks without having on-board propulsion (Foster, et al., 2017) (Griffith, et al., 2021). CARA has been developing improvements to MTS to support differential-drag for NASA's missions -- where it is effective. CARA records all conjunctions of their protected payloads, with historical records starting in 2005 (with significant conjunction events starting to occur on or after 2013). From this record, approximately 7,300 had a Pc greater than 1E-4 at 3 days prior to the time of closest approach, the time analyzed for differential drag efficacy. Of those, approximately 4,300 had fully-defined covariance matrices stored for both the primary and secondary objects; this set of conjunctions is the basis for the analysis of this work. CARA’s MTS tool was used to propagate the primary satellite forward from that decision point with varying degrees of increase to ballistic coefficient (BC). Because these conjunctions came from multiple missions, the nondimensional ‘delta-BC’ factor was used to quantify and normalize the increase in ballistic coefficient, defined as follows: Delta-BC = BC_new / BC_old - 1 Positive delta-BC factors represent an increase in drag compared to the nominal attitude, while negative delta-BC factors (to a minimum of -1) represent a decrease in drag. At the conclusion of the differential-drag ‘maneuver’, the Pc was recalculated to evaluate whether or not the conjunction was mitigated (Pc < 3E-6). These results were then binned and sorted along several axes, including altitude, amount of delta-BC, and (pre-maneuver) rate of energy dissipation (EDR), to identify underlying patterns. The altitude plot is shown in Figure 1. To validate this analysis, we consulted the record of a NASA mission which uses differential drag to maintain its orbit and remediate conjunction risk. CARA’s empirical record of the mission’s orbit history suggests it achieves a delta-BC of 2.2. Of the twenty-one RMM plans that were submitted by this mission, eighteen were matched with conjunctions in the historical record; of those, twelve were successfully remediated (final measured Pc < 3E-6), and six were not. This is consistent with the expected efficacy for missions orbiting at that altitude. We are presently simulating this mission’s RMMs with MTS; this work is ongoing, but so far, the MTS results are qualitatively in agreement with the empirical results -- correctly predicting that a maneuver would or would not remediate a conjunction, if not exactly matching the final post-remediation Pc value. We found that differential drag was most successful for satellites with perigees below 560 km, and which could adopt an average delta-BC of 2 or greater (that is, increasing their ballistic coefficient by a factor of 3). However, this is a difficult threshold for a mission to clear; very few spacecraft are capable of adopting a high-drag configuration for 72 hours continuously. Planet’s Dove spacecraft use differential drag to remediate conjunctions (Griffith, et al., 2021), and they have a maximum delta-BC factor of 9, but in practice (with mission and charging constraints) they achieve a time-averaged delta-BC that is closer to 2 (Foster, et al., 2017). A mission’s differential drag utility strongly depends on the operational constraints that has the capacity to limit the time-averaged delta-BC. A mission with a high maximum delta-BC of 5 or more can have an effective delta-BC of less than 1 due to operational constraints such as instrument and solar panel pointing, especially if this constraint results in holding an intermediate drag value for most of its orbit. CARA has developed tables that can be used as decision aids to advise missions-in-development about the best way to utilize their differential drag capabilities. For missions below 560 km with the operational flexibility to devote multiple days to holding a high-drag configuration (or a sufficiently high drag ratio to compensate for limitations on that time), they are -- more likely than not -- able to successfully remediate high-risk conjunctions. Conversely, missions that do not meet these exacting criteria -- most missions -- can instead be advised to use on-board propulsion systems to perform RMMs, or to turn their minimum-area face towards the approach vector, thereby reducing Pc at the moment of conjunction due to the decreased Hard-Body Radius (HBR), that is a strongly correlated variable in the Pc calculations. (NASA, 2023)

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Search for Young Planetary Systems And the Evolution of Young Stars

The Space Interferometer Mission (SIM) will provide a census of planetary systems by con- ducting a broad survey of 2,000 stars that will be sensitive to the presence of planets with masses as small as approx. 15 Earth masses (1 Uranus mass) and a deep survey of approx. 250 of the nearest, stars with a mass limit of approx.3 Earth masses. The broad survey will include stars spanning a wide range of ages, spectral types, metallicity, and other important parameters. Within this larger context, the Young Stars and Planets Key Project will study approx. 200 stars with ages from 1 Myr to 100 Myr to understand the formation and dynamical evolution of gas giant planets. The SIM Young Stars and Planets Project will investigate both the frequency of giant planet formation and the early dynamical history of planetary systems. We will gain insight into how common the basic architecture of our solar system is compared with recently discovered systems with close-in giant planets by examining 200 of the nearest (less than 150 pc) and youngest (1-100 Myr) solar-type stars for planets. The sensitivity of the survey for stars located 140 pc away is shown in the planet mass-separation plane. We expect to find anywhere from 10 (assuming that only the presently known fraction of stars. 5-7%, has planets) to 200 (all young stars have planets) planetary systems. W-e have set our sensitivity threshold to ensure the detection of Jupiter-mass planets in the critical orbital range of 1 to 5 AU. These observations, when combined with the results of planetary searches of mature stars, will allow us to test theories of planetary formation and early solar system evolution. By searching for planets around pre-main sequence stars carefully selected to span an age range from 1 to 100 Myr, we will learn a t what epoch and with what frequency giant planets are found at the water-ice snowline where they are expected to form. This will provide insight into the physical mechanisms by which planets form and migrate from their place of birth, and about their survival rate. With these data in hand, we will provide data, for the first time, on such important questions as: What processes affect the formation and dynamical evolution of planets? When and where do planets form? What is initial mass distribution of planetary systems around young stars? How might planets be destroyed? What is the origin of the eccentricity of planetary orbits? What is the origin of the apparent dearth of companion objects between planets and brown dwarfs seen in mature stars? The observational strategy is a compromise between the desire to extend the planetary mass function as low as possible and the essential need to build up sufficient statistics on planetary occurrence. About half of the sample will be used to address the "where" and "when" of planet formation. We will study classical T Tauri stars (cTTs) which have massive accretion disks and post- accretion, weak-lined T Tauri stars (wTTs). Preliminary estimates suggest the sample will consist of approx. 30% cTTs and approx. 70% wTTs, driven in part by the difficulty of making accurate astrometric measurements toward objects with strong variability or prominent disks.

Beichman, Charles A.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Investigating the Response of Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Feedbacks to Spatial Representation of Irrigation in a Coupled Modeling Framework

The transport of water, heat, and momentum from the surface to the atmosphere is dependent in part on the 10 characteristics of the land surface. Together with the model physics, parameterization schemes, and parameters employed, land datasets determine the spatial variability in land surface states (i.e., soil moisture and temperature) and fluxes. Despite the importance of these datasets, they are often chosen out of convenience or regional limitations without due assessment of their impacts on model results. Irrigation is an anthropogenic form of land heterogeneity that has been shown to alter the land surface energy balance, ambient weather, and local circulations. As such, irrigation schemes are becoming more 15 prevalent in weather and climate models with rapid developments in dataset availability and parameterization scheme complexity. Thus, to address pragmatic issues related to modeling irrigation, this study uses a high-resolution, regional coupled modeling system to investigate the impacts of irrigation dataset selection on land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling using a case study from the Great Plains Irrigation Experiment (GRAINEX) field campaign. The simulations are assessed in the context of irrigated versus non-irrigated regions, subregions across the irrigation gradient, and sub-grid scale process 20 representation in coarser scale models. The results show that L-A coupling is sensitive to the choice of irrigation dataset and resolution and that the irrigation impact on surface fluxes and near surface meteorology can be dominant, conditioned on the details of the irrigation map (i.e., boundaries, heterogeneity, etc), or minimal. A consistent finding across several analyses was that even a low percentage of irrigation fraction (i.e., 4-16%) can have significant local and downstream atmospheric impacts (e.g., lower PBL height), suggesting that representation of boundaries and heterogeneous areas within irrigated 25 regions is particularly important for the modeling of irrigation impacts on the atmosphere in this model. When viewing the simulations presented here as a proxy for ‘ideal’ tiling in a Earth System Model scale gridbox, the results show that some ‘tiles’ will reach critical nonlinear moisture and planetary boundary layer (PBL) thresholds that could be important for clouds and convection, implying that heterogeneity resulting from irrigation should be taken into consideration in new sub-grid land-atmosphere exchange parameterizations.

Patricia Lawston-Parker↗

NASA NTRS2017

Validation of Minimum Display Requirements for a UAS Detect and Avoid System

The full integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS), a prerequisite for enabling a broad range of public and commercial UAS operations, presents several technical challenges to UAS developers, operators and regulators. A primary barrier is the inability for UAS pilots (situated at a ground control station, or GCS) to comply with Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations sections 91.111 and 91.113, which require pilots to “see and avoid” other aircraft in order to maintain well clear. UAS pilots’ removal from the flight deck of the aircraft necessitates the development of a UAS-specific system for detecting nearby traffic and displaying traffic information to the pilot to support their ability to maintain an objectively defined “DAA well clear” threshold from other aircraft. This new UAS-specific function of remaining DAA well clear is called traffic avoidance. The resulting Detect and Avoid (DAA) system, however, will be subject to a collection of requirements that manufacturers will be obligated to meet in order to certify their equipment. RTCA Special Committee 228 (SC-228), a consortium of representatives from government, industry and academia, is responsible for developing and documenting the Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for UAS DAA systems. The present study is the final in a series of human-in-the-loop (HITL) experiments designed to explore and test the various display and alerting requirements being incorporated into the DAA MOPS. Whereas the prior DAA HITLs examined a wide variety of DAA display features and concepts, the current experiment aims to validate the latest minimum display requirements for Phase 1 of the DAA MOPS. Rather than test different display concepts, this study tests two configurations of a MOPS-compatible DAA display: a version that is integrated into the primary navigation and control display of the GCS and a version that is physically separated from the primary display. This manipulation tests the draft minimum requirement that allows the DAA traffic display to be a separate, or standalone, configuration. This type of configuration is a more achievable near-term technology solution since it does not stipulate additional certification or integration requirements on UAS manufacturers. However, a standalone display configuration has the potential to result in pilot performance issues resulting from the cognitive costs of switching between the primary DAA display and the primary navigation and control display. This configuration is also particularly susceptible to errors if the displays are in different orientations (e.g., north-up versus track-up). Both the integrated and standalone display configurations were presented to 16 active UAS pilots in a medium-fidelity simulation, which included confederate air traffic controllers and pseudo pilots operating simulated manned traffic. Pilots were tasked with navigating two different mission routes while maintaining DAA well clear with scripted conflicts. Pilot response times (i.e., measured response) and ability to remain DAA well clear are reported. Primary results indicate that both display configurations resulted in favorable response times and well clear rates. While there were clear trends of pilots objectively performing better in the integrated display condition, with several measured response metrics reaching statistical significance, the differences between the two displays were typically moderate. While the primary variable of DAA display location did not have an especially large impact on pilot performance on its own, when examined alongside the type of DAA threat the pilot was facing (a caution-level versus a warning-level alert), the response time benefits associated with the integrated display were amplified. The implications of these American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics 2 results on the Phase 1 DAA MOPS and the connection of this data to previous studies is also discussed.

detect and avoid↗

NASA NTRS2012

Resolution Enhancement of MODIS-Derived Water Indices for Studying Persistent Flooding

Monitoring coastal marshes for persistent flooding and salinity stress is a high priority issue in Louisiana. Remote sensing can identify environmental variables that can be indicators of marsh habitat conditions, and offer timely and relatively accurate information for aiding wetland vegetation management. Monitoring activity accuracy is often limited by mixed pixels which occur when areas represented by the pixel encompasses more than one cover type. Mixtures of marsh grasses and open water in 250m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data can impede flood area estimation. Flood mapping of such mixtures requires finer spatial resolution data to better represent the cover type composition within 250m MODIS pixel. Fusion of MODIS and Landsat can improve both spectral and temporal resolution of time series products to resolve rapid changes from forcing mechanisms like hurricane winds and storm surge. For this study, using a method for estimating sub-pixel values from a MODIS time series of a Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), using temporal weighting, was implemented to map persistent flooding in Louisiana coastal marshes. Ordinarily NDWI computed from daily 250m MODIS pixels represents a mixture of fragmented marshes and water. Here, sub-pixel NDWI values were derived for MODIS data using Landsat 30-m data. Each MODIS pixel was disaggregated into a mixture of the eight cover types according to the classified image pixels falling inside the MODIS pixel. The Landsat pixel means for each cover type inside a MODIS pixel were computed for the Landsat data preceding the MODIS image in time and for the Landsat data succeeding the MODIS image. The Landsat data were then weighted exponentially according to closeness in date to the MODIS data. The reconstructed MODIS data were produced by summing the product of fractional cover type with estimated NDWI values within each cover type. A new daily time series was produced using both the reconstructed 250-m MODIS, with enhanced features, and the approximated daily 30-m high-resolution image based on Landsat data. The algorithm was developed and tested over the Calcasieu-Sabine Basin, which was heavily inundated by storm surge from Hurricane Ike to study the extent and duration of flooding following the storm. Time series for 2000-2009, covering flooding events by Hurricane Rita in 2005 and Hurricane Ike in 2008, were derived. High resolution images were formed for all days in 2008 between the first cloud free Landsat scene and the last cloud-free Landsat scene. To refine and validate flooding maps, each time series was compared to Louisiana Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) station water levels adjusted to marsh to optimize thresholds for MODIS-derived time series of NDWI. Seasonal fluctuations were adjusted by subtracting ten year average NDWI for marshes, excluding the hurricane events. Results from different NDWI indices and a combination of indices were compared. Flooding persistence that was mapped with higher-resolution data showed some improvement over the original MODIS time series estimates. The advantage of this novel technique is that improved mapping of extent and duration of inundation can be provided.

Underwood, L. W.↗