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IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations This dataset contains model projections of new data center facilities in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2035 using the CERF – Data Centers model. Data center locations are modeled across four data center electricity demand growth scenarios (low, moderate, high, higher) and five market gravity scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Projected locations are intended to be regional representations of feasible siting locations in the future to assess potential grid and water stress impacts. The data center load growth scenarios correspond with the rates outlined in EPRI (2024) and include 3.71%, 5%, 10%, and 15% annual growth of electricity demand for data centers from 2023 values in 37 states across the CONUS. Market gravity scenarios correspond to the relative importance of proximity to data center markets or high population areas compared to locational cost in the siting algorithm. 0% market gravity means that siting decisions were entirely determined by the locational cost in each feasible location. 100% market gravity means that only market proximity was considered when siting. Other scenarios have weight placed on both components where total weight always equals 100%. Locational cost is dependent on facility cooling type and corresponding electricity cost, taxes, and other factors. Facility cooling type is spatially determined where high water stress and/or areas with high summer wet bulb temperatures are assumed to operate with mechanical cooling for a higher fraction of the year rather than evaporative cooling. Feasible data center siting areas are based on geospatial suitability raster data developed with open-source information. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands Because we use open-source information, proprietary information that can influence siting decisions such as individual tax agreements with cities, detailed fiber line connectivity, electric grid power capacity agreements, and others, are not currently accounted for in the modeling process. Using specific building locations and footprints in the dataset for local planning purposes is not advised. Technical Information Geospatial data is provided in geojson format using the Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) coordinate reference system. The datasets contain the following parameters: id - unique identification number within given scenario file growth_scenario – data center demand growth scenario market_gravity_weight – market gravity weight scenario (%) region – name of region (i.e., US State) total_cost_million_usd – locational siting cost ($million) campus_size_square_ft – total land acquired for data center facility (square ft) data_center_it_power_mw – IT power of data center facility (MW) mechanical_cooling_frac – fraction of year when data center uses mechanical cooling system water_cooling_frac– fraction of year when data center uses evaporative cooling system cooling_energy_demand_mwh – total annual facility energy demand for cooling (MWh) cooling_water_demand_mgy – total annual facility water demand for cooling (MG) cooling_water_consumption_mgy – total annual facility water consumed (MG) normalized_locational_cost – normalized total locational cost score for location normalized_gravity_score – normalized market gravity score for location weighted_siting_score – total weighted siting score of locational cost and gravity score geometry – polygon geometry of facility Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations This dataset contains model projections of new data center facilities in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2035 using the CERF – Data Centers model. Data center locations are modeled across four data center electricity demand growth scenarios (low, moderate, high, higher) and five market gravity scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Projected locations are intended to be regional representations of feasible siting locations in the future to assess potential grid and water stress impacts. The data center load growth scenarios correspond with the rates outlined in EPRI (2024) and include 3.71%, 5%, 10%, and 15% annual growth of electricity demand for data centers from 2023 values in 37 states across the CONUS. Market gravity scenarios correspond to the relative importance of proximity to data center markets or high population areas compared to locational cost in the siting algorithm. 0% market gravity means that siting decisions were entirely determined by the locational cost in each feasible location. 100% market gravity means that only market proximity was considered when siting. Other scenarios have weight placed on both components where total weight always equals 100%. Locational cost is dependent on facility cooling type and corresponding electricity cost, taxes, and other factors. Facility cooling type is spatially determined where high water stress and/or areas with high summer wet bulb temperatures are assumed to operate with mechanical cooling for a higher fraction of the year rather than evaporative cooling. Feasible data center siting areas are based on geospatial suitability raster data developed with open-source information. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway or within an airport area boundary Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) GAP status 1, 2, or 3 areas US National Parks Wetlands USFWS critical habitats BIA land areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands Because we use open-source information, proprietary information that can influence siting decisions such as individual tax agreements with cities, detailed fiber line connectivity, electric grid power capacity agreements, and others, are not currently accounted for in the modeling process. Using specific building locations and footprints in the dataset for local planning purposes is not advised. Technical Information Geospatial data is provided in geojson format using the Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) coordinate reference system. The datasets contain the following parameters: id - unique identification number within given scenario file growth_scenario – data center demand growth scenario market_gravity_weight – market gravity weight scenario (%) region – name of region (i.e., US State) total_cost_million_usd – locational siting cost ($million) campus_size_square_ft – total land acquired for data center facility (square ft) data_center_it_power_mw – IT power of data center facility (MW) mechanical_cooling_frac – fraction of year when data center uses mechanical cooling system water_cooling_frac– fraction of year when data center uses evaporative cooling system cooling_energy_demand_mwh – total annual facility energy demand for cooling (MWh) cooling_water_demand_mgy – total annual facility water demand for cooling (MG) cooling_water_consumption_mgy – total annual facility water consumed (MG) normalized_locational_cost – normalized total locational cost score for location normalized_gravity_score – normalized market gravity score for location weighted_siting_score – total weighted siting score of locational cost and gravity score geometry – polygon geometry of facility Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗

SGD-OD: investigating the potential oxygen demand of submarine groundwater discharge in coastal systems

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) supplies nutrients, carbon, metals, and radionuclide tracers to estuarine and coastal waters. One aspect of SGD that is poorly recognized is its direct effect on dissolved oxygen (DO) demand in receiving waters, denoted here as SGD-OD. Sulfate-mediated oxidation of organic matter in salty coastal aquifers produces numerous reduced byproducts including sulfide, ammonia, dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen, methane, and reduced metals. When these byproducts are introduced to estuarine and coastal systems by SGD and are oxidized, they may substantially reduce the DO concentration in receiving waters and impact organisms living there. We consider six estuarine and coastal sites where SGD derived fluxes of reduced byproducts are well documented. Using data from these sites we present a semiquantitative model to estimate the effect of these byproducts on DO in the receiving waters. Without continued aeration with atmospheric oxygen, the study sites would have experienced periodic hypoxic conditions due to SGD-OD. The presence of H2S supplied by SGD could also impact organisms. This process is likely prevalent in other systems worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Overview of the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) Testing At MSFC

Previously, almost all water used by the crew during space flight has been transported from earth or generated in-flight as a by-product of fuel cells. Additionally, this water has been stored and used for relatively short periods. To achieve the United States' commitment to a permanent manned presence in space, more innovative techniques are demanded. Over 20,000 pounds of water and large quantities of air would have to be transported to the International Space Station (ISS) every 90 days with a corresponding amount of waste returned to earth, for an 8-person crew. This approach results in prohibitive logistics costs, and necessitates near complete recovery and recycling of water. The potential hazards associated with long-term reuse of reclaimed water and revitalized air resulted in the recognition that additional characterization of closed-loop systems and products is essential. Integrated physical/chemical systems have been designed, assembled, and operated to provide air and potable water meeting ISS quality specifications. The purpose of the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) test program at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center is to conduct research related to the performance of the ISS and its Environmental Control components. The ECLSS Test Program encompasses the Water Recovery Test (WRT), the Integrated Air Revitalization Test (IART), and Life Testing, which permits ECLSS design evaluation. These subsystems revitalize air and reclaim waste waters representative of those to be generated on-orbit. This paper provides an overview of MSFC's 1997 ECLSS testing. Specific tests include: the Stage 10 Water Recovery Test; the Contaminant Injection Test; the Performance Enhancement Test and Life Testing of the Four Bed Molecular Sieve; the Oxygen Generator Assembly Life Test; and the ISS Water Distribution Biofilm Life Test.

Traweek, Mary S.↗

An Evaluation of Remotely Sensed and In-Situ Data Sufficiency for SGMA-Scale Groundwater Studies in the Central Valley, California

California’s Central Valley aquifer is a critical freshwater resource for the state, providing drinking water to 6.5 million residents and irrigation water for more than half of the nation’s produce. Increasing demands have led to a steady decline of aquifer water levels, leading to irreversible compaction and land subsidence. The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act of California (SGMA), instituted in 2014, requires high-priority regions to establish sustainability plans by 2020-2022 that mitigate groundwater depletion and land subsidence. Many regions within the Central Valley lack groundwater monitoring wells or continuous well data, rendering in-situ monitoring challenging. When combined with other data, NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow On (GRACE-FO) missions provide valuable information about groundwater storage changes at a sub-basin scale. Interferometric Surface Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements can map land subsidence, and Global Positioning System (GPS) can be used to estimate crustal uplift. Yet, all of these measurements have differences in resolution, coverage, discretization, and record length. Here we assess the various datasets that are potentially useful for Central Valley sub-basin groundwater monitoring and provide an analysis of gaps and other issues in regard to their suitability for SGMA-related analysis. Finally, we offer next steps and recommendations on data treatment and integration.

Kyra H Kim↗

Moisture-driven CO 2 pump for direct air capture

Direct Air Capture, the chemical separation of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from air, is considered a necessary approach to generate negative carbon emissions and in turn limit global warming, though energetic and monetary costs must continue to decline to meet the needed gigaton scale. The promise of energy-efficient and continuous carbon dioxide membrane separation has only recently been investigated with the development of facilitated chemical transport and novel electrochemically driven methods. This work demonstrates the potential for continuous pumping of CO 2 from air using commercial anion exchange membranes driven solely by a water vapor gradient. A reactive transport model that couples ionic transport with moisture sensitive bicarbonate chemistry in charged polymers, also termed moisture swing sorption, was developed alongside experimentally measured equilibrium and transport properties of CO 2 and water vapor in Fumasep FAA-3 to determine the mass transport limits of such a system. The results show that the commercial membrane is kinetically limited by the moisture sensitive chemistry, enabling a CO 2 current of 1.1 μmol/m 2 • s. In diffusion limited materials, a CO 2 pumping flux can reach 11 μmol/m 2 • s in and peak performance is expected with a dry air relative humidity around 50% pumping into a saturated water vapor permeate. In all configurations, water loss becomes the major cost in such a separation and must be managed through optimal polymer design or water recovery mechanisms. The work demonstrates the applicability of a new driving force, the evaporation of water, to meet the energetic demand of CO 2 separation from air.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Contrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest

Abstract Warming generally leads to increased evaporative demand, altering the amount of water needed for growing crops. For the Midwest, some studies have suggested that reaching yield targets by 2050 will not be possible without additional precipitation or large expansion of irrigation. Here, we show that this claim is not supported by the historical summer climate trends, which indicate that the warming of daily average temperatures is largely driven by increases in minimum temperatures, while maximum temperatures have decreased. This has translated into a net decrease in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and potential evapotranspiration (PET). With the increasing rainfall, this suggests that crop water deficits have likely become less frequent in the region despite the warming climate. By projecting these trends into 2050 and ancillary use of a crop model, we estimate minor changes in PET that would have minimal effects on corn yields (<6%) under persistence of these trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated Assessment Modeling of Grid Resilience: GCAM-to-PCM Scoping

Deep decarbonization towards a net-zero emissions future and the associated growth in power demand, renewables, and changes in water availability will require significant evolution in grid planning. Many obstacles threaten the viability of near-term generation capacity build out, including the need for large-scale transmission expansion. Current very-long term planning tools do not adequately model physical representations of economic dispatch and system topology down to inter- and intra-regional transmission and distribution infrastructure. This project attempts to fill that gap.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Microbe to Microbiome: A Paradigm Shift in the Application of Microorganisms for Sustainable Agriculture

Light, water and healthy soil are three essential natural resources required for agricultural productivity. Industrialization of agriculture has resulted in intensification of cropping practices using enormous amounts of chemical pesticides and fertilizers that damage these natural resources. Therefore, there is a need to embrace agriculture practices that do not depend on greater use of fertilizers and water to meet the growing demand of global food requirements. Plants and soil harbor millions of microorganisms, which collectively form a microbial community known as the microbiome. An effective microbiome can offer benefits to its host, including plant growth promotion, nutrient use efficiency, and control of pests and phytopathogens. Therefore, there is an immediate need to bring functional potential of plant-associated microbiome and its innovation into crop production. In addition to that, new scientific methodologies that can track the nutrient flux through the plant, its resident microbiome and surrounding soil, will offer new opportunities for the design of more efficient microbial consortia design. It is now increasingly acknowledged that the diversity of a microbial inoculum is as important as its plant growth promoting ability. Not surprisingly, outcomes from such plant and soil microbiome studies have resulted in a paradigm shift away from single, specific soil microbes to a more holistic microbiome approach for enhancing crop productivity and the restoration of soil health. Herein, we have reviewed this paradigm shift and discussed various aspects of benign microbiome-based approaches for sustainable agriculture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Photovoltaic water pumping applications: Assessment of the near-term market

Water pumping applications represent a potential market for photovoltaics. The price of energy for photovoltaic systems was compared to that of utility line extensions and diesel generators. The potential domestic demand was defined in the government, commercial/institutional and public sectors. The foreign demand and sources of funding for water pumping systems in the developing countries were also discussed briefly. It was concluded that a near term domestic market of at least 240 megawatts and a foreign market of about 6 gigawatts exist.

Rosenblum, L.↗

"We Freeze to Please": A History of NASA's Icing Research Tunnel and the Quest for Flight Safety

The formation of ice on wings and other control surfaces of airplanes is one of the oldest and most vexing problems that aircraft engineers and scientists continue to face. While no easy, comprehensive answers exist, the staff at NASAs Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at the Glenn Research Center in Cleveland has done pioneering work to make flight safer for experimental, commercial, and military customers. The National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA) initiated government research on aircraft icing in the 1930s at its Langley facility in Virginia. Icing research shifted to the NACA's Cleveland facility in the 1940s. Initially there was little focus on icing at either location, as these facilities were more concerned with aerodynamics and engine development. With several high-profile fatal crashes of air mail carriers, however, the NACA soon realized the need for a leading research facility devoted to icing prevention and removal. The IRT began operation in 1944 and, despite renovations and periodic attempts to shut it down, has continued to function productively for almost 60 years. In part because icing has proved so problematic over time, IRT researchers have been unusually open-minded in experimenting with a wide variety of substances, devices, and techniques. Early icing prevention experiments involved grease, pumping hot engine exhaust onto the wings, glycerin soap, mechanical and inflatable "boots," and even corn syrup. The IRT staff also looked abroad for ideas and later tried a German and Soviet technique of electromagnetism, to no avail. More recently, European polymer fluids have been more promising. The IRT even periodically had "amateur nights" in which a dentist's coating for children's teeth proved unequal to the demands of super-cooled water droplets blown at 100 miles per hour. Despite many research dead-ends, IRT researchers have achieved great success over the years. They have developed important computer models, such as the LEWICE software, and made significant contributions to prevent ice buildup on turbine-powered commercial aircraft, helicopters, and military planes.

Leary, William M.↗

Water Information System Platforms Addressing Critical Societal Needs in the Mena Region

The MENA region includes 18 countries, the occupied Palestinian territories and Western Sahara. However, the region of interest for this study has a strategic interest in countries adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea, which includes, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. The 90% of the water in the MENA region is used for the agriculture use. By the end of this century. this region is projected to experience an increase of 3 C to 5 C in mean temperatures and a 20% decline in precipitation (lPCC, 2007). Due to lower precipitation, water run-off is projected to drop by 20% to 30% in most of MENA by 2050 Reduced stream flow and groundwater recharge might lead to a reduction in water supply of 10% or greater by 2050. Therefore, per IPCC projections in temperature rise and precipitation decline in the region, the scarcity of water will become more acute with population growth, and rising demand of food in the region. Additionally, the trans boundary water issues will continue to plague the region in terms of sharing data for better management of water resources. Such pressing issues have brought The World Bank, USAID and NASA to jointly collaborate for establishing integrated, modern, up to date NASA developed capabilities for countries in the MENA region for addressing water resource issues and adapting to climate change impacts for improved decision making and societal benefit. This initiative was launched in October 2011 and is schedule to be completed by the end of2015.

Habib, Shahid↗

Energy Saving Estimation of ASHRAE Guideline 36 Supervisory Setpoint Reset Controls in a Commercial Large Office Building

Designing, commissioning, and retrofitting HVAC control systems for energy efficiency is crucial, but the use of ad-hoc control sequences by designers and contractors, based on scattered information, results in diverse and sub-optimal sequences. ASHRAE Guideline 36 (G36) addresses the challenge by providing standardized, rule-based HVAC control sequences that prioritize energy efficiency. However, there is limited evaluation of their energy performance at the building level, with only a few studies primarily focused on HVAC airside systems in small-to-medium-sized commercial buildings. In this study, the energy performance of ASHRAE Guideline 36 control sequences was assessed using a large office building emulator in Chicago. The emulator features a central plant system with multiple chillers and boilers as well as multiple variable air volume (VAV) systems with terminal reheat. To achieve a high-fidelity representation, we developed a Spawn-of-EnergyPlus-based model for the large office building, maintaining the DOE prototype large office building setup but substituting the HVAC system with its Modelica counterpart. This substitution ensures that the building thermal load, HVAC system's dynamics, and detailed control sequences are all accurately represented. The study involved evaluating and implementing control strategies outlined in ASHRAE Guideline 36-2021 to replace conventional controls. These strategies include the demand-based supply air temperature and duct static pressure setpoint reset and the request logic for demand-based reset of chilled/hot water supply temperature setpoints and pipe static pressure setpoints. Energy performance was evaluated under various load conditions, including cooling, heating, and transitional seasons, both for individual control strategies and in combination. The results indicate that the collective control strategies retrofit yield greater energy savings than the sum of individual strategies, highlighting the synergistic benefits of incorporating both airside and plant-side control retrofits. Additionally, energy savings of up to 41% in the heating season, 18% in the shoulder season, and 20 % in the cooling season were observed compared to baseline control while maintaining the thermal comfort level.

ASHRAE Guideline 36, Commercial buildings, Control↗

Utility Energy Service Contract Guide: A Resource for Contracting Officers Working on UESC Projects

A Utility Energy Service Contract (UESC) is a limited-source contract between a federal agency and serving utility for energy management services including energy and water efficiency improvements and demand-reduction services. In a UESC, the Contracting Officer (CO) will lead the acquisition effort, supported by technically knowledgeable staff working closely with the utility, to assess potential, investigate technical and economic feasibility, and ensure a fair and reasonable price for design and implementation of the project. The UESC Guide is a compilation of samples and templates developed as a resource to help COs implement Task Orders (TOs) for UESCs under existing U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) Areawide Contracts (AWC). All samples and templates provided in this guide were derived from actual UESC project contract documents and will be available for download on FEMP’s website at https://www.energy.gov/node/850656. Templates in Microsoft Word can be modified to address each agency’s unique acquisition process.

Federal Energy Management Program↗

Advanced Fuels Campaign Time-at-Temperature Irradiation Campaign and Post-Irradiation Examination Plan

With increasing per capita energy consumption and rapidly growing energy consumption predicted for data centers, the US faces challenges in meeting projected energy demands. The current administration is attempting to accelerate the deployment of new nuclear construction by providing significant investments in advanced nuclear and by modernizing regulatory approaches for the licensing new reactors. However, enabling extended power uprates (EPUs) for the current nuclear reactor fleet would provide a shorter-term solution to better calibrate near-term energy generation capacity to the ever-growing energy demands of the modern era. One pathway to achieve power uprates is to increase the operational window by reassessing fuel safety limits around anticipated transients. Existing light-water reactors (LWRs) utilize a targeted operational window with well-defined operational efficiencies, yet this window is also often bound by conservative safety limits that result in suboptimal operational performance. For example, the operation of the existing fleet is highly constrained by safeguards to operation related to anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), which are moderate-frequency transients expected with a frequency greater than 0.01 per reactor-year. These AOOs include temperature excursions where the critical heat flux for the system is exceeded, resulting in a departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) at the cladding surface. This DNB event is a thermohydraulic condition that, with current conservative fuel safety limits, results in the fuel rods being classified as “failed,” meaning that the cladding may not be returned to service.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Climate-Water Adaptation for Future US Electricity Infrastructure

Future climate-water conditions are anticipated to increase electricity demand, reduce transmission capacity, and limit power production. Yet, typical electricity capacity expansion planning does not consider climate-water constraints. We project four alternative U.S. power system configurations using an iterative modeling and data exchange platform that integrates climate-driven hydrological, thermal power plant, and capacity expansion models. Through a comparison with traditional modeling approaches, we show that this novel approach provides greater confidence in electricity capacity projections by incorporating feasibility checks that adjust infrastructure development to reach grid reliability thresholds under climate-water constraints. Initial projections without climate-water impacts on electricity generation show future power systems become less vulnerable, independent of climate-water adaptation, as economic drivers increase renewable and natural gas-based capacity, while water-intensive coal and nuclear plants retire. However, power systems may face reliability challenges without climate-water adaptation, revealing the significance of incorporating climate-water impacts into power system planning. Climate-adjusted (Iterative approach) projections require a 5.3-12.0% increase in national-level capacity, relative to Initial projections, leading to an additional $125-143 billion (5.0-7.0%) in infrastructure costs. Variable renewable and natural gas technologies account for nearly all the additional capacity and, together with regional trade-offs in electricity generation, enhance grid performance to reach reliability thresholds. These adaptation transitions also lower water use and emissions, contributing to climate change mitigation, and highlight the trade-offs and impacts of both near and long-term electricity generation planning decisions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Residential solar-heating system

Complete residential solar-heating and hot-water system, when installed in highly-insulated energy-saver home, can supply large percentage of total energy demand for space heating and domestic hot water. System which uses water-heating energy storage can be scaled to meet requirements of building in which it is installed.

Source record↗

Application of thermal energy storage with electrified heating and cooling in a cold climate

Ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) have been shown to be an effective means of decarbonizing building heating and cooling, but the operation of these systems at scale presents challenges to sites and the grid due to increases in peak demand. Here, in this study, we investigate how the use of Thermal Energy Storage (TES), in the form of stratified water storage, could reduce the peak daily demand associated with GSHP systems and thus improve their cost effectiveness. This system was compared to a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plant, to investigate the potential cost and emissions impacts of electrification on large energy users transitioning from high efficiency fossil fuel equipment. This study builds on previous research by using a significant campus area, and investigating the various impacts of an electrified system versus a state of the art fossil fuel system. An established method of TRNSYS modeling is used for the heat pumps and borehole heat exchangers (BHEs), along with the TES. The GSHP system with TES is modeled to follow industry standards and sized to provide an optimal balance of capital and operating costs. Costs were investigated for a unique large energy user rate structure, as well as for a more common generalized rate structure. The results show that the addition of TES to the GSHP system could reduce operating costs by 4.5%, but still incurs a 5.64% cost increase from the baseline CHP system. It is also shown, however, that a tactical integration of heat pumps into the CHP system is the most cost effective solution, only increasing the operating costs by 4.71%. Likewise, the impacts of different rate structures are highlighted, with the TES only resulting in 0.75% cost savings under the generalized utility rate. Furthermore, it is shown that thermal storage has great potential for demand reduction, with the addition of storage incurring a decrease of 7–22% in annual peak demand kW, dependent on the rate structure.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗