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NASA NTRS2014

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65 +/- 20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5+/-0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.

predictions↗

NASA NTRS1996

Turbulent Compressible Convection with Rotation: Flow Structure and Evolution - Part 1

The effects of Coriolis forces on compressible convection are studied using three-dimensional numerical simulations carried out within a local modified f-plane model. The physics is simplified by considering a perfect gas occupying a rectilinear domain placed tangentially to a rotating sphere at various latitudes, through which a destabilizing heat flux is driven. The resulting convection is considered for a range of Rayleigh, Taylor, and Prandtl (and thus Rossby) numbers, evaluating conditions where the influence of rotation is both weak and strong. Given the computational demands of these high-resolution simulations, the parameter space is explored sparsely to ascertain the differences between laminar and turbulent rotating convection. The first paper in this series examines the effects of rotation on the flow structure within the convection, its evolution, and some consequences for mixing. Subsequent papers consider the large-scale mean shear flows that are generated by the convection, and the effects of rotation on the convective energetics and transport properties. It is found here that the structure of rotating turbulent convection is similar to earlier nonrotating studies, with a laminar, cellular surface network disguising a fully turbulent interior punctuated by vertically coherent structures. However, the temporal signature of the surface flows is modified by inertial motions to yield new cellular evolution patterns and an overall increase in the mobility of the network. The turbulent convection contains vortex tubes of many scales, including large-scale coherent structures spanning the full vertical extent of the domain involving multiple density scale heights. Remarkably, such structures align with the rotation vector via the influence of Coriolis forces on turbulent motions, in contrast with the zonal tilting of streamlines found in laminar flows. Such novel turbulent mechanisms alter the correlations which drive mean shearing flows and affect the convective transport properties. In contrast to this large-scale anisotropy, small-scale vortex tubes at greater depths are randomly orientated by the rotational mixing of momentum, leading to an increased degree of isotropy on the medium to small scales of motion there. Rotation also influences the thermodynamic mixing properties of the convection. In particular, interaction of the larger coherent vortices causes a loss of correlation between the vertical velocity and the temperature leaving a mean stratification which is not isentropic.

Brummell, Nicholas H.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Comparison of Noise Source Localization Data with Flow Field Data Obtained in Cold Supersonic Jets and Implications Regarding Broadband Shock Noise

Phased array noise source localization have been compared with 2 types of flow field data (BOS and PIV). The data show that: 1) the higher frequency noise in a BBSN hump is generated further downstream than the lower frequency noise. This is due to a) the shock spacing decreasing and b) the turbulent structure size increasing with distance downstream. 2) BBSN can be created by very weak shocks. 3) BBSN is not created by the strong shocks just downstream of the nozzle because the turbulent structures have not grown large enough to match the shock spacing. 4) The point in the flow where the shock spacing equals the average size of the turbulent structures is a hot spot for shock noise. 5) Some of the shocks responsible for producing the first hump also produce the second hump.

Podboy, Gary↗

NASA NTRS2016

MMS Observations of Ion-Scale Magnetic Island in the Magnetosheath Turbulent Plasma

In this letter, first observations of ion-scale magnetic island from the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission in the magnetosheath turbulent plasma are presented. The magnetic island is characterized by bipolar variation of magnetic fields with magnetic field compression, strong core field, density depletion, and strong currents dominated by the parallel component to the local magnetic field. The estimated size of magnetic island is about 8 di, where di is the ion inertial length. Distinct particle behaviors and wave activities inside and at the edges of the magnetic island are observed: parallel electron beam accompanied with electrostatic solitary waves and strong electromagnetic lower hybrid drift waves inside the magnetic island and bidirectional electron beams, whistler waves, weak electromagnetic lower hybrid drift waves, and strong broadband electrostatic noise at the edges of the magnetic island. Our observations demonstrate that highly dynamical, strong wave activities and electron-scale physics occur within ion-scale magnetic islands in the magnetosheath turbulent plasma..

Huang, S. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Corotating MeV/amu ion enhancements at 1 AU or less from 1978 to 1986

The properties of MeV/amu ions in 64 corotating streams at and inside 1 AU associated with corotating high-speed streams from 1978 to 1986 during presolar maximum to near solar minimum conditions are discussed. Around 50 percent of the streams include significant ion intensity enhancements not associated with solar particle events or traveling interplanetary shocks. The ions stream nearly along the E x B drift direction in the spacecraft frame, corresponding to a weak sunward field-aligned streaming in the solar wind frame. The sunward streaming is consistent with particle acceleration in the outer heliosphere followed by diffusion into the inner heliosphere. The ion intensity is not correlated with the stream solar wind speed or with the increase in solar wind speed at the leading edge of the high-speed stream, suggesting that the local shock strength alone may not play a dominant role in determining the intensity.

Richardson, I. G.↗

NASA NTRS1961

Surface Pressures and Heat Transfer on Unswept Blunt Plates in Helium at High Mach Numbers

Pressure distributions and local convective heat-transfer coefficients on a flat plate at zero angle of attack were measured in helium. Data were obtained with various amounts of leading-edge bluntness at Mach numbers of 12.5 and 14.7. The pressures on a sharp leading-edged plate were not influenced by the leading edge and were predicted by the first-order, hypersonic, weak-interaction theory. Pressures on blunt plates were correlated by introducing the leading-edge Reynolds number as a parameter. Measured heat-transfer coefficients on the sharp plate agreed with predictions obtained form existing exact solutions for hear transfer across the laminar boundary layer. For the blunt plates a comparison of theory with experiment indicated that more knowledge of the flow field between the sock wave and plate surface is necessary before an adequate prediction of convective heat transfer can be made. Shock-wave shapes for the blun plates at a Mach number 12.5 and zero angle of attack were measured. At distances between 2 and 60 leading-edge thicknesses from the shock vertex, the shock-wave shapes were found to be represented by a modified form of the blast-wave analogy.

Marvin, Joseph G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Phase-Controlled Magnetic Mirror for Wavefront Correction

Typically, light interacts with matter via the electric field and interaction with weakly bound electrons. In a magnetic mirror, a patterned nanowire is fabricated over a metallic layer with a dielectric layer in between. Oscillation of the electrons in the nanowires in response to the magnetic field of incident photons causes a re-emission of photons and operation as a "magnetic mirror." By controlling the index of refraction in the dielectric layer using a local applied voltage, the phase of the emitted radiation can be controlled. This allows electrical modification of the reflected wavefront, resulting in a deformable mirror that can be used for wavefront control. Certain applications require wavefront quality in the few-nanometer regime, which is a major challenge for optical fabrication and alignment of mirrors or lenses. The use of a deformable magnetic mirror allows for a device with no moving parts that can modify the phase of incident light over many spatial scales, potentially with higher resolution than current approaches. Current deformable mirrors modify the incident wavefront by using nano-actuation of a substrate to physically bend the mirror to a desired shape. The purpose of the innovation is to modify the incident wavefront for the purpose of correction of fabrication and alignment-induced wavefront errors at the system level. The advanced degree of precision required for some applications such as gravity wave detection (LISA - Laser Interferometer Space Antenna) or planet finding (FKSI - Fourier-Kelvin Stellar Interferometer) requires wavefront control at the limits of the current state of the art. All the steps required to fabricate a magnetic mirror have been demonstrated. The modification is to apply a bias voltage to the dielectric layer so as to change the index of refraction and modify the phase of the reflected radiation. Light is reflected off the device and collected by a phase-sensing interferometer. The interferometer determines the initial wavefront of the device and fore optics. A wavefront correction is calculated, and voltage profile for each nanowire strip is determined. The voltage is applied, modifying the local index of refraction of the dielectric under the nanowire strip. This modifies the phase of the reflected light to allow wavefront correction.

Hagopian, John↗

NASA NTRS2009

Improved Blackbody Temperature Sensors for a Vacuum Furnace

Some improvements have been made in the design and fabrication of blackbody sensors (BBSs) used to measure the temperature of a heater core in a vacuum furnace. Each BBS consists of a ring of thermally conductive, high-melting-temperature material with two tantalum-sheathed thermocouples attached at diametrically opposite points. The name "blackbody sensor" reflects the basic principle of operation. Heat is transferred between the ring and the furnace heater core primarily by blackbody radiation, heat is conducted through the ring to the thermocouples, and the temperature of the ring (and, hence, the temperature of the heater core) is measured by use of the thermocouples. Two main requirements have guided the development of these BBSs: (1) The rings should have as high an emissivity as possible in order to maximize the heat-transfer rate and thereby maximize temperature-monitoring performance and (2) the thermocouples must be joined to the rings in such a way as to ensure long-term, reliable intimate thermal contact. The problem of fabricating a BBS to satisfy these requirements is complicated by an application-specific prohibition against overheating and thereby damaging nearby instrumentation leads through the use of conventional furnace brazing or any other technique that involves heating the entire BBS and its surroundings. The problem is further complicated by another application-specific prohibition against damaging the thin tantalum thermocouple sheaths through the use of conventional welding to join the thermocouples to the ring. The first BBS rings were made of graphite. The tantalum-sheathed thermocouples were attached to the graphite rings by use of high-temperature graphite cements. The ring/thermocouple bonds thus formed were found to be weak and unreliable, and so graphite rings and graphite cements were abandoned. Now, each BBS ring is made from one of two materials: either tantalum or a molybdenum/titanium/zirconium alloy. The tantalum-sheathed thermocouples are bonded to the ring by laser brazing. The primary advantage of laser brazing over furnace brazing is that in laser brazing, it is possible to form a brazed connection locally, without heating nearby parts to the flow temperature of the brazing material. Hence, it is possible to comply with the prohibition against overheating nearby instrumentation leads. Also, in laser brazing, unlike in furnace brazing, it is possible to exert control over the thermal energy to such a high degree that it becomes possible to braze the thermocouples to the ring without burning through the thin tantalum sheaths on the thermocouples. The brazing material used in the laser brazing process is a titanium-boron paste. This brazing material can withstand use at temperatures up to about 1,400 C. In thermal-cycling tests performed thus far, no debonding between the rings and thermocouples has been observed. Emissivity coatings about 0.001 in. (.0.025 mm) thick applied to the interior surfaces of the rings have been found to improve the performance of the BBS sensors by raising the apparent emissivities of the rings. In thermal-cycling tests, the coatings were found to adhere well to the rings.

Farmer, Jeff↗

NASA NTRS1985

An interplanetary magnetic field ensemble at 1 AU

A method for calculation ensemble averages from magnetic field data is described. A data set comprising approximately 16 months of nearly continuous ISEE-3 magnetic field data is used in this study. Individual subintervals of this data, ranging from 15 hours to 15.6 days comprise the ensemble. The sole condition for including each subinterval in the averages is the degree to which it represents a weakly time-stationary process. Averages obtained by this method are appropriate for a turbulence description of the interplanetary medium. The ensemble average correlation length obtained from all subintervals is found to be 4.9 x 10 to the 11th cm. The average value of the variances of the magnetic field components are in the approximate ratio 8:9:10, where the third component is the local mean field direction. The correlation lengths and variances are found to have a systematic variation with subinterval duration, reflecting the important role of low-frequency fluctuations in the interplanetary medium.

Matthaeus, W. H.↗

NASA NTRS1986

An interplanetary magnetic field ensemble at 1 AU

A method for calculation ensemble averages from magnetic field data is described. A data set comprising approximately 16 months of nearly continuous ISEE-3 magnetic field data is used in this study. Individual subintervals of this data, ranging from 15 hours to 15.6 days comprise the ensemble. The sole condition for including each subinterval in the averages is the degree to shich it represents a weakly time-stationary process. Averages obtained by this method are appropriate for a turbulence description of the interplanetary medium. The ensemble average correlation length obtained from all subintervals is found to be 4.9 x 10 to the 11th cm. The average value of the variances of the magnetic field components are in the approximate ratio 8:9:10, where the third component is the local mean field direction. The correlation lengths and variances are found to have a systematic variation with subinterval duration, reflecting the important role of low-frequency fluctuations in the interplanetary medium.

Matthaeus, W. H.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Unsteady spot heating of a drop in a microgravity environment

The unsteady localized spot heating of a liquid drop under zero-g conditions is examined theoretically. This pertains to space experiments to measure thermal properties of materials and the purpose here is to predict the thermal behavior of such systems. Spot heating can be achieved by a laser beam focused on a small region of the drop surface. The present theoretical model deals with situations of weak Marangoni flows, whereby the thermal transport is conduction dominated. The heat flow in the drop is treated as unsteady while the surrounding gaseous region is considered to be quasisteady. The ensuing thermally driven flow is analyzed in the Stokes regime.

Sadhal, Satwindar Singh↗

NASA NTRS1996

Plasma and energetic particle properties of dispersionless substorm injections at geosynchronous orbit

Using a year's worth of geosynchronous spacecraft data, the substorm associated behavior of the thermal plasma in the plasma sheet in relation to energetic particle injections is reviewed. Five classes of injection events were found: ion injections without accompanying electron injection at 21 local time (LT); ion injection followed a few minutes later by an electron injection at 22 LT; simultaneous ion and electron injection close to midnight; electron injections followed by an ion injection at 01 LT; and pure electron injections at 02 LT. The thermal electrons show a significant increase in temperature and pressure at substorm onset, while the density and thermal ion signatures are typically weak. Energetic ions are found to contribute to the total ion pressure and temperature. Preexisting perpendicular anisotropies in the thermal electrons and ions are reduced during the substorm growth phase, but are re-enhanced after onset.

Birn, J.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Iterative solution of transonic flows over airfoils and wings, including flows at Mach 1

A new method of calculating transonic flows based on a 'rotated' difference scheme is described. It is suitable for the calculation of both two- and three-dimensional flows without restriction on the speed at infinity and is well adapted to computer use. The Murman procedure is modified to eliminate any assumptions about the direction of flow when constructing the difference scheme. The proper directional property is obtained by rotating the difference scheme to conform with the local stream direction. In the hyperbolic region retarded difference formulas are used for all contributions to the streamwise second derivative, producing a correctly oriented positive artificial viscosity. In the absence of a simple implicit scheme in the hyperbolic and elliptic regions, the concept of iterations as steps in artificial time is introduced. Computer testing of this procedure provides numerical confirmation of the existence and uniqueness of weak solutions of the potential equation when a suitable entropy inequality is enforced.

Jameson, A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Periodic solutions to systems of reaction-diffusion equations

Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the existence of temporally periodic 'dissipative structure' solutions in weak diffusion with the reaction rate terms dominant in a generic system of reaction-diffusion differential equations. The enumerator index i of the equations denotes the density or concentration of the ith participating molecular or biological species, and D sub i is the diffusivity constant for the ith species while Q sub i (c), an algebraic function of the n-tuple c, expresses the local rate of production of the ith species due to chemical reactions or biological interactions.

Rosen, G.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Neutral winds and electric fields in the dust auroral oval. II - Theory and model

A two-dimensional numerical model of the thermosphere is applied to the auroral zone neutral wind, electric field, and plasma density data set, presented in an earlier paper. The model shows that the action of the Lorentz force can be responsible to a great extent for the large zonal velocities near the 150-km altitude. Model equations are described, an explanation of the use of the geophysical conditions is given, and model integrations are compared to the wind measurements. However, for the two-dimensional model to be effective, the atmosphere must not cross too many meridians of local time during the integration period, so that the background state should remain fairly uniform. It is concluded that the two-dimensional model cannot accurately explain the details of the wind profiles because of the three-dimensional character of the physical situation. Thus it is noted that the observed winds were part of a large-scale three-dimensional flow which is only weakly coupled to short-term variations in magnetospheric conditions.

Mikkelsen, I. S.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Interstellar Na I and Ca II absorption in intercloud regions

The weak interstellar absorption lines of Na I, Ca II, and H I formed in the intercloud medium toward eight nearly unreddened stars are analyzed. Compared with the corresponding column densities within a standard cloud, the Na I/H column-density ratio is smaller by a factor probably in excess of 17, while the Ca II/H column-density ratio is about normal. These results imply that the local intercloud medium extensively contains low-density H I regions in which the temperature is at least about 2500 K and the depletion of calcium is less severe than in the clouds, by a factor of 20.

Hobbs, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Electronic and total energy properties of ternary and quaternary semiconductor compounds, alloys, and superlattices: Theoretical study of Cu/graphite bonding

The goals of the research were to provide a fundamental science basis for why the bonding of Cu to graphite is weak, to critically evaluate the previous analysis of the wetting studies with particular regard to the values used for the surface energies of Cu and graphite, and to make recommendations for future experiments or other studies which could advance the understanding and solution of this technological problem. First principles electronic structure calculations were used to study the problem. These are based on density functional theory in the local density approximation and the use of the linear muffin-tin orbital band structure method. Calculations were performed for graphite monolayers, single crystal graphite with the hexagonal AB stacking, bulk Cu, Cu(111) surface, and Cu/graphite superlattices. The study is limited to the basal plane of graphite because this is the graphite plane exposed to Cu and graphite surface energies and combined with the measured contact angles to evaluate the experimental adhesion energy.

Lambrecht, Walter R. L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Intercomparing Open Source Surface Water Extent Mapping Products & Software Packages

The open source revolution of Earth Observation (EO) science has resulted in increased openness of EO data, workflows to transform that data into end products (e.g. surface water extent maps), and the products themselves. However, this revolution has oversaturated decision-makers with products that can give conflicting results. Thus, it is increasingly crucial for scientists to communicate their methodologies and assumptions so scientific products can be used accurately. Recognizing this challenge, SERVIR – a joint initiative between NASA, USAID, and geospatial organizations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America – is conducting a regional intercomparison of open source surface water extent products and packages. SERVIR’s Hindu Kush Himalaya and Southeast Asia “hubs” have developed satellite-based surface water mapping services involving customizable code packages that are operationally run at each hub. These services are regionally and locally tailored to inform specific decisions and early actions. Conversely, the scientific community has released surface water products that are global or near-global, but are not customizable. These packages and products employ different methodologies and sensors, causing decision-makers to evaluate trade-offs related to physical sensor characteristics (e.g. spectral, temporal, and spatial resolution, and latency). We will discuss the tradeoffs, strengths, and weaknesses of the sensor characteristics and methodologies associated with each product/package, and provide preliminary results of a validation effort intercomparing products/packages for case studies in South and Southeast Asia. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of these products is crucial in both the aftermath of a flood event and in preparing for future floods.

Micky Maganini↗