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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Recent Developments in Hydrogeologic Applications for Strain Tensor Analyses

Changes in fluid pressure deform porous media and this effect occurs in a variety of hydrogeologic processes, from the change in storage during pumping or injection to fluctuations in water levels caused by barometric pressure. We have developed instruments for measuring small strains in porous media, and we have used the resulting strain data to evaluate well testing, hydraulic fracturing, manual loading at the ground surface, and ambient hydrologic processes, like rainfall and evaporation. A particularly important application is the use of strain tensor data measured at shallow depths to analyze well tests or hydraulic fractures conducted at much greater depths. An early demonstration of this technique was conducted at the North Avant Field north of Tulsa, Oklahoma, where Pennsylvanian sandstone creates a confined aquifer and oil reservoir at a depth of 530m. We have showed that the strains caused by injecting into the aquifer could be measured at a depth of 30m and used to evaluate the properties of the aquifer. We recently expanded the array of strainmeters at the North Avant Field by deploying three more instruments at shallow depth (30m) along with a deep instrument at 520m depth in the winter, 2021. The deep instrument is deployed in shale caprock slightly above the aquifer. To our knowledge, the deep strainmeter at the North Avant Field is the deepest strainmeter ever deployed and this required refining methods originally developed for shallow deployments. The instrument was lowered to depth on oil field tubing and cemented in place using techniques and materials developed for use in oil wells. Optical fiber used to communicate with the instrument was cemented in the annulus on the outside of tubing. This is significant because the techniques we used could readily be extended to greater depth, suggesting that strainmeters can be deployed over a wide range of depths for monitoring critical subsurface processes. For example, it suggests that strainmeters could be deployed through the caprock to monitor for leaks from underlying CO2 storage reservoirs. The strainmeter array at the North Avant Field has been used to characterize deformation during a series of injection tests in the spring and summer, 2021. All the new strainmeters respond to pumping, and the strainmeters we installed earlier also responded. To our knowledge, this is the first application of well testing in a deep aquifer that was monitored by an array of strainmeters—our earlier work used strainmeters at a single location. We are currently analyzing the strain data using an analytical solution, a proxy-based Bayesian inversion algorithm, and other methods. Strainmeter data has also been used to characterize periodic pumping tests by us and Riley Blais. A periodically varying pumping rate causes both hydraulic head and strain signals that vary with the same period as the pumping. The peaks and troughs of the head in monitoring wells lag behind the peaks and troughs of the head in the pumping well, and this lag time increases with distance from the pumping well. The lag time of the pressure and the distance to the monitoring well can be used in a simple analysis to estimate the hydraulic diffusivity of the aquifer. The lag time determined from strain data can be used to estimate aquifer properties using the same analysis that works for the pressure only for strain data measured at particular locations. That is because the strain field in a confining unit advances upward, laterally and then downward even though the pressure in the underlying aquifer only advances laterally, according to our recent simulations. We have field data showing that a small periodic signal superimposed on an injection rate at the North Avant Field will create a periodic strain signal at shallow strainmeters. The field data and the recent simulations suggest that including a periodic component to injection or pumping and then monitoring the resulting strain signal could be a way to monitor the subsurface.

Murdoch, Larry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Noise-aware optimization in nominally identical manufacturing and measuring systems for high-throughput parallel workflows

Device-to-device variability in experimental noise critically impacts reproducibility, especially in automated, high-throughput systems like additive manufacturing farms. While manageable in small labs, such variability can escalate into serious risks at larger scales, such as architectural 3D printing, where noise may cause structural or economic failures. This contribution presents a noise-aware decision-making algorithm that quantifies and models device-specific noise profiles to manage variability adaptively. It uses distributional analysis and pairwise divergence metrics with clustering to choose between single-device and robust multi-device Bayesian optimization strategies. Unlike conventional methods that assume homogeneous devices or enforce generic robustness, the proposed framework explicitly determines whether shared optimization across devices is appropriate based on the degree of inter-device noise heterogeneity. This enables improved performance, reproducibility, and efficiency. An experimental case study involving three nominally identical 3D printers (same brand, model, and close serial numbers) demonstrates reduced redundancy, lower resource usage, and improved reliability, along with improved convergence stability and solution quality through the selection of the appropriate optimization strategy based on the degree of inter-device noise heterogeneity. Overall, this framework establishes a general approach for precision- and resource-aware optimization in scalable, automated experimental platforms, demonstrated here on a representative multi-device 3D printing case study.

Schenk, Christina↗
DOE OSTI2023

Writing the Programs of Programmable Catalysis

It has long been known that non-steady state and periodic catalytic reactor operation in terms of temperature, pressure, and composition can lead to higher overall productivity and/or product selectivity than the best steady operation. Recently, the emergence of catalysts whose intrinsic properties can be made to oscillate with time, introduces advanced forcing capabilities that can be “programmed” into the catalysts to broaden the scope and applicability of periodic operation to surface chemistry. In this work, an algorithmic approach is implemented to significantly accelerate the discovery and optimization of periodic steady states of catalytic reactors. Decomposition of complex dynamics into fundamental mechanistic fast–slow steps is seen to improve conceptual understanding of the relationship between binding energy oscillation protocols and overall catalytic rates. Finding structured forcing protocols, optimally tailored to the multiple time scales of a given individual mechanism, requires an efficient search of high-dimensional parameter spaces. Here, this is enabled here through active learning (Bayesian optimization, enhanced by our proposed Bayesian continuation). Implementation of these methods is shown to accelerate the evaluation of catalyst programs by up to several orders of magnitude. Faster screening of programmable catalysts to discover periodic steady states enables the optimization of catalytic operating protocols and thus opens the possibility for catalyst engineering based on optimal forcing programs to control rate and product selectivity, even for complex multistep catalytic mechanisms.

catalysis↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Robust Estimate of Continental-Scale Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Using GOSAT XCO 2 Retrievals

Satellite XCO 2 retrievals could improve the estimates of surface carbon fluxes, but it remains unknown on what scales these estimates are robust. Here, we use the time-dependent Bayesian synthesis top-down method and prior net ecosystem exchanges (NEEs) from 12 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) to infer the monthly carbon fluxes of 51 land regions with constraints by GOSAT XCO 2 retrievals. We find that the uncertainty (standard deviation of 12 TBMs) reduction rates (uncertainty reduction rate (URR)) decrease significantly at decreasing spatial scales. On the continental-scale, the mean URR is about 57%, and the annual and seasonal cycle estimates of NEE are rather robust. The evaluation shows that the posterior CO 2 concentrations are significantly improved at the continental scale. Our study suggests that the GOSAT XCO 2 can only promise a robust continental-scale NEE estimate and improving the XCO 2 accuracy is an effective way to achieve robust estimates on smaller scales under current spatial coverage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck: XII. Cosmological parameter constraints with end-to-end error propagation

We present cosmological parameter constraints estimated using the Bayesian BEYONDPLANCK analysis framework. This method supports seamless end-to-end error propagation from raw time-ordered data onto final cosmological parameters. As a first demonstration of the method, we analyzed time-ordered Planck LFI observations, combined with selected external data (WMAP 33–61 GHz, Planck HFI DR4 353 and 857 GHz, and Haslam 408 MHz) in the form of pixelized maps that are used to break critical astrophysical degeneracies. Overall, all the results are generally in good agreement with previously reported values from Planck 2018 and WMAP, with the largest relative difference for any parameter amounting about 1σ when considering only temperature multipoles between 30 ≤ ℓ ≤ 600. In cases where there are differences, we note that the BEYONDPLANCK results are generally slightly closer to the high-ℓ HFI-dominated Planck 2018 results than previous analyses, suggesting slightly less tension between low and high multipoles. Using low-ℓ polarization information from LFI and WMAP, we find a best-fit value of τ = 0.066 ± 0.013, which is higher than the low value of τ = 0.052 ± 0.008 derived from Planck 2018 and slightly lower than the value of 0.069 ± 0.011 derived from the joint analysis of official LFI and WMAP products. Most importantly, however, we find that the uncertainty derived in the BEYONDPLANCK processing is about 30 % greater than when analyzing the official products, after taking into account the different sky coverage. We argue that this uncertainty is due to a marginalization over a more complete model of instrumental and astrophysical parameters, which results in more reliable and more rigorously defined uncertainties. We find that about 2000 Monte Carlo samples are required to achieve a robust convergence for a low-resolution cosmic microwave background (CMB) covariance matrix with 225 independent modes, and producing these samples takes about eight weeks on a modest computing cluster with 256 cores.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multipoint-BAX: a new approach for efficiently tuning particle accelerator emittance via virtual objectives

Abstract Although beam emittance is critical for the performance of high-brightness accelerators, optimization is often time limited as emittance calculations, commonly done via quadrupole scans, are typically slow. Such calculations are a type of multipoint query , i.e. each query requires multiple secondary measurements. Traditional black-box optimizers such as Bayesian optimization are slow and inefficient when dealing with such objectives as they must acquire the full series of measurements, but return only the emittance, with each query. We propose a new information-theoretic algorithm, Multipoint-BAX , for black-box optimization on multipoint queries, which queries and models individual beam-size measurements using techniques from Bayesian Algorithm Execution (BAX). Our method avoids the slow multipoint query on the accelerator by acquiring points through a virtual objective , i.e. calculating the emittance objective from a fast learned model rather than directly from the accelerator. We use Multipoint-BAX to minimize emittance at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) and the Facility for Advanced Accelerator Experimental Tests II (FACET-II). In simulation, our method is 20× faster and more robust to noise compared to existing methods. In live tests, it matched the hand-tuned emittance at FACET-II and achieved a 24% lower emittance than hand-tuning at LCLS. Our method represents a conceptual shift for optimizing multipoint queries, and we anticipate that it can be readily adapted to similar problems in particle accelerators and other scientific instruments.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

PyOED: An Extensible Suite for Data Assimilation and Model-Constrained Optimal Design of Experiments

This article describes PyOED, a highly extensible scientific package that enables developing and testing model-constrained optimal experimental design (OED) for inverse problems. Specifically, PyOED aims to be a comprehensive Python toolkit for model-constrained OED. The package targets scientists and researchers interested in understanding the details of OED formulations and approaches. It is also meant to enable researchers to experiment with standard and innovative OED technologies with a wide range of test problems (e.g., simulation models). OED, inverse problems (e.g., Bayesian inversion), and data assimilation (DA) are closely related research fields, and their formulations overlap significantly. Thus, PyOED is continuously being expanded with a plethora of Bayesian inversion, DA, and OED methods as well as new scientific simulation models, observation error models, and observation operators. These pieces are added such that they can be permuted to enable testing OED methods in various settings of varying complexities. The PyOED core is completely written in Python and utilizes the inherent object-oriented capabilities; however, the current version of PyOED is meant to be extensible rather than scalable. Specifically, PyOED is developed to “enable rapid development and benchmarking of OED methods with minimal coding effort and to maximize code reutilization.” This article provides a brief description of the PyOED layout and philosophy and provides a set of exemplary test cases and tutorials to demonstrate the potential of the package.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

EGS Stimulation Design with Uncertainty Quantification at the EGS Collab Site

Engineering a robust hydraulic connection between wells is one of the most difficult aspects of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Designing and constructing such hydraulic connections requires and understanding of the in situ state of stress and the heterogeneities and discontinuities that naturally exist and may control the stimulation. Even with comprehensive stress and formation characterization programs substantial uncertainty remains in these key parameters. This is especially the case in high-temperature EGS environments where drilling conditions are often difficult and a far fewer logging and testing options are available. This paper presents a new approach for explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the state of stress using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. This approach produces a probability distribution for the stress tensor, including a general 3D orientation, that reflects the uncertainties in all the observations or indicators used to constrain the stress state. This method is demonstrated on the characterization data for the EGS Collab Experiment 2 site. The output of the analysis is used to guide the design of the planned stimulations. In the case of research projects like EGS Collab, explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the stress state allow for more rigorous hypothesis testing by allowing conclusions drawn from the experiments to be interpreted in the context of the uncertain knowledge about conditions in the test bed.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated experimental design of safe rampdowns via probabilistic machine learning

Abstract Typically the rampdown phase of a shot consists of a decrease in current and injected power and optionally a change in shape, but there is considerable flexibility in the rate, sequencing, and duration of these changes. On the next generation of tokamaks it is essential that this is done safely as the device could be damaged by the stored thermal and electromagnetic energy present in the plasma. This works presents a procedure for automatically choosing experimental rampdown designs to rapidly converge to an effective rampdown trajectory. This procedure uses probabilistic machine learning methods paired with acquisition functions taken from Bayesian optimization. In a set of 2022 experiments at DIII-D, the rampdown designs produced by our method maintained plasma control down to substantially lower current and energy levels than are typically observed. The actions predicted by the model significantly improved as the model was able to explore over the course of the experimental campaign.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian estimations of orientation distribution functions from small-angle scattering enable direct prediction of mechanical stress in anisotropic materials

Properties of soft materials are influenced by their anisotropic structuring under nonequilibrium fields. Although anisotropic structure-property relationships have been extensively explored theoretically, comparison to experiments requires determination of the microstructural orientation probability distribution function (OPDF) of microstructural elements. Small angle scattering (SAS) measurements encode information about the OPDF, but tools to navigate this connection are incomplete. Here, we develop and validate an explicit framework to link arbitrary OPDFs to SAS measurements. Specifically, we propose, validate, and apply a method, maximum a posteriori scattering inference (MAPSI), whereby the OPDF may be obtained from SAS measurements using a Bayesian estimation method. Using this method, we obtain estimates of the full 3D OPDF for two model semidilute fd-virus (rodlike) dispersions at concentrations that are approximately equal to and twice the overlap concentration. From the OPDF, we calculate its second and fourth moments and compare these to predictions for a dilute suspension of rigid rods and to a recent theory for semidilute suspensions. Finally, we use both the theoretical and measured moments to calculate the stress, both for dilute and semidilute suspensions. These predictions are not only compared to each other, but also to measured values of the shear stress, and point to new insights into the behavior of suspensions of highly elongated particles in the transition between dilute and semidilute behavior. We also use this new framework to provide perspective on the connection between scalar parameterizations of scattering and the OPDF that have frequently been used in the past. Here, the new tools developed in this work provide an unprecedented path toward experimental validation of dynamical theories of rodlike colloids and polymers, and for measurement of nonequilibrium structures and stresses of other complex fluids and soft materials with SAS.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model orthogonalization and Bayesian forecast mixing via principal component analysis

One can improve predictability in the unknown domain by combining forecasts of imperfect complex computational models using a Bayesian statistical machine learning framework. In many cases, however, the models used in the mixing process are similar. In addition to contaminating the model space, the existence of such similar, or even redundant, models during the multimodeling process can result in misinterpretation of results and deterioration of predictive performance. In this paper we describe a method based on the principal component analysis that eliminates model redundancy. We show that by adding model orthogonalization to the proposed Bayesian model combination framework, one can arrive at better prediction accuracy and reach excellent uncertainty quantification performance.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble variational Fokker-Planck methods for data assimilation

Particle flow filters solve Bayesian inference problems by smoothly transforming a set of particles into samples from the posterior distribution. Particles move in state space under the flow of an McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process. This work introduces the Variational Fokker-Planck (VFP) framework for data assimilation, a general approach that includes previously known particle flow filters as special cases. The McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process that transforms particles is defined via an optimal drift that depends on the selected diffusion term. It is established that the underlying probability density - sampled by the ensemble of particles - converges to the Bayesian posterior probability density. For a finite number of particles the optimal drift contains a regularization term that nudges particles toward becoming independent random variables. Based on this analysis, we derive computationally-feasible approximate regularization approaches that penalize the mutual information between pairs of particles, and avoid particle collapse. Moreover, the diffusion plays a role akin to a particle rejuvenation approach that aims to alleviate particle collapse. The VFP framework is very flexible. Different assumptions on prior and intermediate probability distributions can be used to implement the optimal drift, and localization and covariance shrinkage can be applied to alleviate the curse of dimensionality. A robust implicit-explicit method is discussed for the efficient integration of stiff McKean- Vlasov-Itˆo processes. Here, the effectiveness of the VFP framework is demonstrated on three progressively more challenging test problems, namely the Lorenz ’63, Lorenz ’96 and the quasi-geostrophic equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayes goes fast: Uncertainty quantification for a covariant energy density functional emulated by the reduced basis method

A covariant energy density functional is calibrated using a principled Bayesian statistical framework informed by experimental binding energies and charge radii of several magic and semi-magic nuclei. The Bayesian sampling required for the calibration is enabled by the emulation of the high-fidelity model through the implementation of a reduced basis method (RBM)—a set of dimensionality reduction techniques that can speed up demanding calculations involving partial differential equations by several orders of magnitude. The RBM emulator we build—using only 100 evaluations of the high-fidelity model—is able to accurately reproduce the model calculations in tens of milliseconds on a personal computer, an increase in speed of nearly a factor of 3,300 when compared to the original solver. Besides the analysis of the posterior distribution of parameters, we present model calculations for masses and radii with properly estimated uncertainties. We also analyze the model correlation between the slope of the symmetry energy L and the neutron skin of 48 Ca and 208 Pb. The straightforward implementation and outstanding performance of the RBM makes it an ideal tool for assisting the nuclear theory community in providing reliable estimates with properly quantified uncertainties of physical observables. Such uncertainty quantification tools will become essential given the expected abundance of data from the recently inaugurated and future experimental and observational facilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved information criteria for Bayesian model averaging in lattice field theory

Bayesian model averaging is a practical method for dealing with uncertainty due to model specification. Use of this technique requires the estimation of model probability weights. Here, we revisit the derivation of estimators for these model weights. Use of the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a starting point leads naturally to a number of alternative information criteria suitable for Bayesian model weight estimation. We explore three such criteria, known to the statistics literature before, in detail: a Bayesian analog of the Akaike information criterion which we call the BAIC, the Bayesian predictive information criterion, and the posterior predictive information criterion (PPIC). We compare the use of these information criteria in numerical analysis problems common in lattice field theory calculations. We find that the PPIC has the most appealing theoretical properties and can give the best performance in terms of model-averaging uncertainty, particularly in the presence of noisy data, while the BAIC is a simple and reliable alternative.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Optimization of Non-Invariant Systems with Constraints Developed for Application to the ECR Ion Source VENUS

In this work, we consider the optimization of non-invariant systems with both safety and control constraints. We present a new approach based on Bayesian optimization for the dynamic, safe and controlled optimization of such systems. Although there are other possible use cases, we focus on the application to the electron cyclotron resonance ion source VENUS. From experimental data, we have observed that VENUS behaves to first order as a non-invariant dynamic system with moving areas of instability. Our novel approach aims at providing a tool that can maintain system optimization in a safe way. This is accomplished by making sure the objective function, the beam current in the case of VENUS, does not fall under an operational minimum, while simultaneously requiring the optimization to avoid areas where VENUS is unstable. We compare the result of our approach on synthetic data modeled to mimic the behavior of VENUS with two methods from the literature, a standard Bayesian optimizer and a safe Bayesian optimizer, both adapted to deal with dynamic systems. A cross Student T-test is conducted to show the significance of the improvement given by the new method we introduce here, regarding the two preexisting methods we compared to. The results of the tests conducted on synthetic data show that the proposed method succeeds at maintaining the system optimized and obeys the predefined constraints better than the literature methods explored.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural Posterior Estimation for Scalable and Accurate Inverse Parameter Inference in Li-Ion Batteries

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE can infer parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, even if it leads to higher voltage reconstruction errors. We also demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters). The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phylogeny and character evolution in the Dacrymycetes , and systematics of Unilacrymaceae and Dacryonaemataceae fam. nov.

We present a multilocus phylogeny of the class Dacrymycetes, based on data from the 18S, ITS, 28S, RPB1,RPB2,TEF-1α, 12S, andATP6DNA regions, with c. 90 species including the types of most currently accepted genera. A variety of methodological approaches was used to infer phylogenetic relationships among the Dacrymycetes, from a supermatrix strategy using maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference on a concatenated dataset, to coalescence-based calculations, such as quartet-based summary methods of independent single-locus trees, and Bayesian integration of single-locus trees into a species tree under the multispecies coalescent. We evaluate for the first time the taxonomic usefulness of some cytological phenotypic characters, i.e., vacuolar contents (vacuolar bodies and lipid bodies), number of nuclei of recently discharged basidiospores, and pigments, with especial emphasis on carotenoids. These characters, along with several others traditionally used for the taxonomy of this group (basidium shape, presence and morphology of clamp connections, morphology of the terminal cells of cortical/marginal hyphae, presence and degree of ramification of the hyphidia), are mapped on the resulting phylogenies and their evolution through the class Dacrymycetes discussed. Our analyses reveal five lineages that putatively represent five different families, four of which are accepted and named. Three out of these four lineages correspond to previously circumscribed and published families (Cerinomycetaceae, Dacrymycetaceae, and Unilacrymaceae), and one is proposed as the new family Dacryonaemataceae. Provisionally, only a single order, Dacrymycetales, is accepted with in the class. Furthermore, the systematics of the two smallest families, Dacryonaemataceae and Unilacrymaceae, are investigated to the species level, using coalescence-based species delimitation on multilocus DNA data, and a detailed morphological study including morphometric analyses of the basidiospores. Three species are accepted in Dacryonaema, the type, Da. rufum, the newly combined Da. Macnabbii (basionym Dacrymyces macnabbii), and a new species named Da. macrosporum. Two species are accepted in Unilacryma, the new U. bispora, and the type, U. unispora, the latter treated in a broad sense pending improved sampling across the Holarctic.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Determining Multi-Component Phase Diagrams with Desired Characteristics Using Active Learning

Herein, we demonstrate how to predict and experimentally validate phase diagrams for multi-component systems from a high-dimensional virtual space of all possible phase diagrams involving several elements based on small existing experimental data. The experimental data for bulk phases for known systems represents a sampling from this space, and screening the space allows multi-component phase diagrams with given design criteria to be built. This approach uses machine learning methods to predict phase diagrams and Bayesian experimental design to minimize experiments for refinement and validation, all within an active learning loop. The approach is proven by predicting and synthesizing the ferroelectric ceramic system (1-ω)(Ba 0.61 Ca 0.28 Sr 0.11 TiO 3 )-ω(BaTi 0.888 Zr 0.0616 Sn 0.0028 Hf 0.0476 O 3 ) with a relatively high transition temperature and triple point, as well as the NiTi-based pseudo-binary phase diagram (1-ω)(Ti 0.309 Ni 0.485 Hf 0.20 Zr 0.006 )-ω(Ti 0.309 Ni 0.485 Hf 0.07 Zr 0.068 Nb 0.068 ) designed for high transition temperature (ω ≤ 1). Each phase diagram is validated and optimized through only three new experiments. The complexity of these compounds is beyond the reach of today’s computational methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗