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At least 379 records · Page 21

Meteorological environments associated with California wildfires and their potential roles in wildfire changes during 1984-2017

California has been seeing more wildfires in recent years, resulting in huge economic losses and threatening human health. Clarifying the meteorological environments of wildfires is foundational to improving the understanding and prediction of wildfires and their impacts. Here, 1535 California wildfires during 1984-2017 are systematically investigated. Based on two key meteorological factors - temperature and moisture anomalies - all wildfires are classified into four groups: hot-dry, hot-wet, cold-dry, cold-wet. Most (~60%) wildfires occurred on hot-dry days. Compositing the large-scale environments of the four groups shows that persistent high pressure and strong northeasterly wind descending from inland favor hot-dry conditions for wildfires. This analysis also reveals an important role of anomalies in southerly onshore flow that supports stronger convection, accompanied by more lightning flashes that provide a triggering mechanism for wildfires under hot-wet conditions. Self-organizing map analysis lends confidence in the large-scale meteorological pattern for dominating hot-dry wildfires in California. Besides wildfire occurrence, wildfire size is also influenced by meteorological anomalies through their magnitudes. Among them, moisture anomaly explains the largest fraction (~69%) of variability in wildfire sizes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies are found to play an important role in the devastating 2018 wildfire season in California. During 1984-2017, wildfire burned area has significantly increased by ~3.6% per year, indicating a doubling of burned area in 2017 relative to 1984, with the trend dominated by hot-dry wildfires in summer. Drying and warming in conjunction with strengthening of the high pressure in summer support more frequent and larger wildfires in California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Combined Optical and Radio-Frequency Perspectives on a Hybrid Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Flash Observed by the FORTE Satellite

In this work, we use the coincident optical and radio-frequency (RF) measurements taken by the Fast On-orbit Recording of Transient Events (FORTE) satellite to shed light on common optical signatures recorded by NASA and NOAA lightning imagers during Cloud-to-Ground (CG) lightning. We build flash cluster data for FORTE using the same techniques as the NASA/NOAA instruments to document the optical/RF evolution of an oceanic hybrid -CG flash. The flash began with strong Very High Frequency (VHF)-band emission from a Narrow Bipolar Event (NBE) that initiated a period of normal bilevel intracloud (IC) activity in two vertical layers (8 and 12 km) that lasted for 490 ms. VHF waveforms show step leader activity ahead of the return stroke. All impulsive VHF sources after the stroke come from the lower (8 km) layer. K-changes are noted following the return stroke, but no subsequent strokes are detected. The optical flash began 136 ms after the NBE RF pulse. Twenty-two of the 33 optical groups were dim and occurred during the in-cloud phase of the flash. This activity included both isolated pulses and sustained periods of illumination over tens of milliseconds. Initial cloud pulses accounted for 23% of the total optical radiance from the flash. Illumination during the return stroke contributed 58% of the total radiance, and the K-changes and cloud pulses after the stroke supplied the remaining 19%. These results highlight the benefit of having RF alongside optical lightning measurements for clarifying signatures in the optical data and providing information on their physical origins.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Preservation of Climate‐Driven Landslide Dams in Western Oregon

Abstract Bedrock landsliding, including the formation of landslide dams, is a predominant geomorphic process in steep landscapes. Clarifying the importance of hydrologic and seismic mechanisms for triggering deep‐seated landslides remains an ongoing effort, and formulation of geomorphic metrics that predict dam preservation is crucial for quantifying secondary landslide hazards. Here, we identify >200 landslide‐dammed lakes in western Oregon and utilize dendrochronology and enhanced 14 C dating (“wiggle matching”) of “ghost forests” to establish slope failure timing at 20 sites. Our dated landslide dataset reveals bedrock landsliding has been common since the last Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake in January 1700 AD. Our study does not reveal landslides that date to 1700 AD. Rather, we observe temporal clustering of at least four landslides in the winter of 1889/1890 AD, coincident with a series of atmospheric rivers that generated one of the largest regionally recorded floods. We use topographic and field analyses to assess the relation between dam preservation and topographic characteristics of the impounded valleys. In contrast to previous studies, we do not observe systematic scaling between dam size and upstream drainage area, though dam stability indices for our sites correspond with “stable” dams elsewhere. Notably, we observe that dams are preferentially preserved at drainage areas of ∼1.5 to 13 km 2 and valley widths of ∼25 to 80 m, which may reflect the reduced downstream influence of debris flows and the accumulation of mature conifer trees upstream from landslide‐dammed lake outlets. We suggest that wood accumulation upstream of landslide dams tempers large stream discharges, thus inhibiting dam incision.

Struble, William T.↗

Diurnal and Seasonal Dynamics of Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence, Vegetation Indices, and Gross Primary Productivity in the Boreal Forest

Remote sensing of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provides a powerful proxy for gross primary productivity (GPP). It is particularly promising in boreal ecosystems where seasonal downregulation of photosynthesis occurs without significant changes in canopy structure or chlorophyll content. The use of SIF as a proxy for GPP is complicated by inherent non-linearities due to both physical (illumination effects) and ecophysiological (light use efficiencies) controls at fine spatial (tower/leaf) and temporal (half-hourly) scales. Here, to study the SIF-GPP relationship, we investigated the diurnal and seasonal dynamics of continuous tower-based measurements of SIF, GPP, and common vegetation indices at the Southern Old Black Spruce Site (SOBS) in Saskatchewan, CA over the course of two years. We find that SIF outperforms other vegetation indices as a proxy for GPP at all temporal scales but shows a non-linear relationship with GPP at a half-hourly resolution. At small temporal scales, SIF and GPP are predominantly driven by light and non-linearity between SIF and GPP is due to the light saturation of GPP. Averaged over daily and monthly scales, the relationship between SIF and GPP is linear due to a reduction in the observed PAR range. Seasonal changes in the light responses of SIF and GPP are driven by changes in light use efficiency which co-vary with changes in temperature, while illumination and canopy structure partially linearize the SIF-GPP relationship. Additionally, we find that the SIF-GPP relationship has a seasonal dependency. Our results help clarify the utility of SIF for estimating carbon assimilation in boreal forests.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Seasonal Forecast Using Probabilistic Deep Learning

The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits relies on improving general circulation model (GCM) based dynamical forecast systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecasts, it is crucial to set up forecast benchmarks, and clarify forecast limitations posed by model initialization errors, formulation deficiencies, and internal climate variability. With huge costs in generating large forecast ensembles, and limited observations for forecast verification, the seasonal forecast benchmarking and diagnosing task proves challenging. Here, we develop a probabilistic deep learning-based statistical forecast methodology, drawing on a wealth of climate simulations to enhance seasonal forecast capability and forecast diagnosis. By explicitly modeling the internal climate variability and GCM formulation differences, the proposed Conditional Generative Forecasting (CGF) methodology enables bypassing crucial barriers in dynamical forecast, and offers a top-down viewpoint to examine how complicated GCMs encode the seasonal predictability information. We apply the CGF methodology for global seasonal forecast of precipitation and 2 m air temperature, based on a unique data set consisting 52,201 years of climate simulation. Results show that the CGF methodology can faithfully represent the seasonal predictability information encoded in GCMs. We successfully apply this learned relationship in real-world seasonal forecast, achieving competitive performance compared to dynamical forecasts. Using this CGF as benchmark, we reveal the impact of insufficient forecast spread sampling that limits the skill of the considered dynamical forecast system. Finally, we introduce different strategies for composing ensembles using the CGF methodology, highlighting the potential for leveraging the strengths of multiple GCMs to achieve advantgeous seasonal forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Potential Vorticity Dynamics Explain How Extratropical Oceans and the Arctic Modulate Wintertime Land–Temperature Variations

Temperature variations across the continental northern hemisphere at the interdecadal scale are thought to be remotely modulated by oceanic internal climate variability and the Arctic. Nevertheless, further elucidating the dynamics is essential for clarifying ongoing debates. We show that potential vorticity (PV) dynamics provide a concise explanation for these teleconnections. Our findings demonstrate that extratropical oceans and the Arctic can remotely modulate the wintertime continental temperature variations by stimulating PV anomalies, which are constrained by climatological PV gradients and jet streams. A causal explanation includes anomalous temperature and precipitation over oceans and the Arctic inducing local PV anomalies via diabatic heating. Subsequently, meridional and downstream advection distributes the anomalous PV to remote land regions where the climatological PV gradients are strong, that is, involving PV fronts, as well as jet streams; therefore, PV fronts and jet streams jointly indicate land regions that are largely and frequently impacted. However, land can also modulate other regions through the same mechanism when variations over land occur in advance. Clear causality depends on which factor is independent, while interactions among those regions may convolute the causality, thereby causing further debates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability in Precipitation Changes of a Sub-Region of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic During 1979–2019

Observations of the seasonal mean precipitation averaged over a sub-region of the U.S. mid-Atlantic show significant increases in summer but no changes in winter during 1979–2019. Clarifying the drivers of these observed changes is important for understanding and interpreting future projections of regional precipitation by climate models. Herein, this study examines the relative effects of external forcing and internal variability in the observed multi-decadal changes using the historical and RCP8.5/SSP585 simulations from 37 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), 35 models in CMIP6, as well as large ensemble simulations from 6 models, each including more than 20 members. During 1979–2019, enhanced warming over land relative to ocean due to external forcing induces low pressure anomalies over land that contribute to the wetting summer. While similar wetting also occurs during winter, such effect is offset by the drying associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent decades. Internal variability produces large uncertainty in the multi-decadal precipitation changes simulated by climate models through changes in large-scale circulation associated with the NAO in winter and the North Atlantic Subtropical High in summer. These multi-decadal relationships between precipitation and large-scale circulation under internal variability also manifest on inter-annual timescale. These relationships highlight enhanced moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic in winter and near the mid-Atlantic coast in summer that modulates precipitation change in the study region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large Ensemble Diagnostic Evaluation of Hydrologic Parameter Uncertainty in the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5)

Abstract Land surface models such as the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) seek to enhance understanding of terrestrial hydrology and aid in the evaluation of anthropogenic and climate change impacts. However, the effects of parametric uncertainty on CLM5 hydrologic predictions across regions, timescales, and flow regimes have yet to be explored in detail. The common use of the default hydrologic model parameters in CLM5 risks generating streamflow predictions that may lead to incorrect inferences for important dynamics and/or extremes. In this study, we benchmark CLM5 streamflow predictions relative to the commonly employed default hydrologic parameters for 464 headwater basins over the conterminous United States (CONUS). We evaluate baseline CLM5 default parameter performance relative to a large (1,307) Latin Hypercube Sampling‐based diagnostic comparison of streamflow prediction skill using over 20 error measures. We provide a global sensitivity analysis that clarifies the significant spatial variations in parametric controls for CLM5 streamflow predictions across regions, temporal scales, and error metrics of interest. The baseline CLM5 shows relatively moderate to poor streamflow prediction skill in several CONUS regions, especially the arid Southwest and Central U.S. Hydrologic parameter uncertainty strongly affects CLM5 streamflow predictions, but its impacts vary in complex ways across U.S. regions, timescales, and flow regimes. Overall, CLM5's surface runoff and soil water parameters have the largest effects on simulated high flows, while canopy water and evaporation parameters have the most significant effects on the water balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transit Time Estimation in Catchments: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Abstract Water transit time is now a standard measure in catchment hydrological and ecohydrological research. The last comprehensive review of transit time modeling approaches was published 15+ years ago. But since then the field has largely expanded with new data, theory and applications. Here, we review these new developments with focus on water‐age‐balance approaches and data‐based approaches. We discuss and compare methods including StorAge‐Selection functions, well/partially mixed compartments, water age tracking through spatially distributed models, direct transit time estimates from controlled experiments, young water fractions, and ensemble hydrograph separation. We unify some of the heterogeneity in the literature that has crept in with these many new approaches, in an attempt to clarify the key differences and similarities among them. Finally, we point to open questions in transit time research, including what we still need from theory, models, field work, and community practice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model Sensitivities of Biomass-Burning Aerosol Chemical Aging, Sulfate Formation, and Cloud Droplet Activation in the Southeastern Atlantic Using CESM and E3SM

Biomass-burning smoke drives large uncertainty in climate projections of the Earth's radiative balance. This is due to the chemical and physical evolution of smoke and its impact on clouds and radiation. Here we focus on the southeastern Atlantic region and its inflow of African biomass-burning smoke during August 2017. We evaluate smoke properties and processes in two coupled earth-system models, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). These are compared against in situ aircraft observations from two field campaigns, ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) and CLoud–Aerosol–Radiation Interaction and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017). Observations reveal an increase and subsequent decrease in smoke mean diameter, and a steady decrease in the mass ratio of organic aerosol (OA) to black carbon aerosol (BC) (OA:BC) over 4–12 days of aging, neither captured by the base models. Implementation of a photolytic loss scheme for secondary organic aerosol (SOA)—as a proxy for other heterogeneous volatilization chemistry—and a ∼1-day conversion for primary OA to SOA significantly improves the representation of this loss. In the boundary layer, both models show dimethyl sulfide driving a large increase in the sulfate aerosol mass fraction from the free troposphere, which is consistent with observations. Finally, models tend to underpredict cloud droplet number concentration partially due to weak modeled turbulent updraft strength, and model performance improves when the parameterized turbulent updraft strength is increased substantially. These results are expected to provide insights into future model development to reduce climate model uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Can ERA5 Be Used to Study Mesoscale Convective System Climatological Characteristics?

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce more than half of tropical rainfall and are central to the global hydrologic cycle. As the climate warms, environments favorable for MCSs may become more common; however, limited observational records hamper understanding of how MCSs respond to variations and changes in their environments. Here, we evaluate how well MCSs are represented in ERA5, a widely used global high‐resolution reanalysis product. Using PyFLEXTRKR, which jointly tracks top‐of‐atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface precipitation, we identified MCSs in ERA5 and compared them with those identified in satellite observations using the same detection algorithm. This comparison analysis spans 2007–2020 using hourly data at 0.25° horizontal resolution focusing over the tropics. ERA5 reproduces observed brightness‐temperature statistics and captures the geographic distribution and seasonal and diurnal cycles of MCS cold cloud shields. However, ERA5 precipitation exhibits an intensity bias—too much light rain and too little heavy rain—which shifts the rain‐rate distribution and reduces the frequency of MCSs relative to observations. Within MCSs, ERA5 precipitation exhibits the same pattern of bias, yielding a systematic underestimation of MCS precipitation intensity. Consistent with these biases, ERA5 underestimates the contribution of MCS to tropical rainfall by 25%–34% in key regions. Overall, ERA5 is suitable for studying MCS cold cloud‐shield climatology and evolution, but precipitation‐based MCS characteristics (including event‐level precipitation features and the geospatial distribution of MCS precipitation) should be interpreted with caution. These findings clarify which aspects of MCS behavior are robustly represented in ERA5 for climatological applications.

mesoscale convection↗

Room-temperature terahertz anomalous Hall effect in Weyl antiferromagnet Mn 3 Sn thin films

Antiferromagnetic spin motion at terahertz (THz) frequencies attracts growing interests for fast spintronics, however, their smaller responses to external field inhibit device application. Recently the noncollinear antiferromagnet Mn 3 Sn, a Weyl semimetal candidate, was reported to show large anomalous Hall effect (AHE) at room temperature comparable to ferromagnets. Dynamical aspect of such large responses is an important issue to be clarified for future THz data processing. Here the THz anomalous Hall conductivity in Mn 3 Sn thin films is investigated by polarization-resolved spectroscopy. Large anomalous Hall conductivity Re σxyð Þ ω 20 Ω1cm1 at THz frequencies is clearly observed as polarization rotation. A peculiar temperature dependence corresponding to the breaking/recovery of symmetry in the spin texture is also discussed. Observation of the THz AHE at room temperature demonstrates the ultrafast readout for the antiferromagnetic spintronics using Mn3Sn, and will also open new avenue for studying nonequilibrium dynamics in Weyl antiferromagnets.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Conformational dynamics linked to domain closure and substrate binding explain the ERAP1 allosteric regulation mechanism

The endoplasmic-reticulum aminopeptidase ERAP1 processes antigenic peptides for loading on MHC-I proteins and recognition by CD8 T cells as they survey the body for infection and malignancy. Crystal structures have revealed ERAP1 in either open or closed conformations, but whether these occur in solution and are involved in catalysis is not clear. Here, we assess ERAP1 conformational states in solution in the presence of substrates, allosteric activators, and inhibitors by small-angle X-ray scattering. We also characterize changes in protein conformation by X-ray crystallography, and we localize alternate C-terminal binding sites by chemical crosslinking. Structural and enzymatic data suggest that the structural reconfigurations of ERAP1 active site are physically linked to domain closure and are promoted by binding of long peptide substrates. These results clarify steps required for ERAP1 catalysis, demonstrate the importance of conformational dynamics within the catalytic cycle, and provide a mechanism for the observed allosteric regulation and Lys/Arg528 polymorphism disease association.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Biomimetic CO oxidation below -100 °C by a nitrate-containing metal-free microporous system

CO oxidation is of importance both for inorganic and living systems. Transition and precious metals supported on various materials can oxidize CO to CO 2 . Among them, few systems, such as Au/TiO 2 , can perform CO oxidation at temperatures as low as -70 °C. Living (an)aerobic organisms perform CO oxidation with nitrate using complex enzymes under ambient temperatures representing an essential pathway for life, which enables respiration in the absence of oxygen and leads to carbonate mineral formation. Herein, we report that CO can be oxidized to CO 2 by nitrate at -140 °C within an inorganic, nonmetallic zeolitic system. The transformation of NO x and CO species in zeolite as well as the origin of this unique activity is clarified using a joint spectroscopic and computational approach.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mismatching integration-enabled strains and defects engineering in LDH microstructure for high-rate and long-life charge storage

Layered double hydroxides (LDH) have been extensively investigated for charge storage, however, their development is hampered by the sluggish reaction dynamics. Herein, triggered by mismatching integration of Mn sites, we configured wrinkled Mn/NiCo-LDH with strains and defects, where promoted mass & charge transport behaviors were realized. The well-tailored Mn/NiCo-LDH displays a capacity up to 518 C g -1 (1 A g -1 ), a remarkable rate performance (78%@100 A g -1 ) and a long cycle life (without capacity decay after 10,000 cycles). We clarified that the moderate electron transfer between the released Mn species and Co 2+ serves as the pre-step, while the compressive strain induces structural deformation with promoted reaction dynamics. Theoretical and operando investigations further demonstrate that the Mn sites boost ion adsorption/transport and electron transfer, and the Mn-induced effect remains active after multiple charge/discharge processes. This contribution provides some insights for controllable structure design and modulation toward high-efficient energy storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Thermodynamics of high-pressure ice phases explored with atomistic simulations

Most experimentally known high-pressure ice phases have a body-centred cubic (bcc) oxygen lattice. Our large-scale molecular-dynamics simulations with a machine-learning potential indicate that, amongst these bcc ice phases, ices VII, VII' and X are the same thermodynamic phase under different conditions, whereas superionic ice VII" has a first-order phase boundary with ice VII'. Moreover, at about 300 GPa, the transformation between ice X and the Pbcm phase has a sharp structural change but no apparent activation barrier, whilst at higher pressures the barrier gradually increases. Our study thus clarifies the phase behaviour of the high-pressure ices and reveals peculiar solid–solid transition mechanisms not known in other systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

De novo protein design of photochemical reaction centers

Abstract Natural photosynthetic protein complexes capture sunlight to power the energetic catalysis that supports life on Earth. Yet these natural protein structures carry an evolutionary legacy of complexity and fragility that encumbers protein reengineering efforts and obfuscates the underlying design rules for light-driven charge separation. De novo development of a simplified photosynthetic reaction center protein can clarify practical engineering principles needed to build new enzymes for efficient solar-to-fuel energy conversion. Here, we report the rational design, X-ray crystal structure, and electron transfer activity of a multi-cofactor protein that incorporates essential elements of photosynthetic reaction centers. This highly stable, modular artificial protein framework can be reconstituted in vitro with interchangeable redox centers for nanometer-scale photochemical charge separation. Transient absorption spectroscopy demonstrates Photosystem II-like tyrosine and metal cluster oxidation, and we measure charge separation lifetimes exceeding 100 ms, ideal for light-activated catalysis. This de novo-designed reaction center builds upon engineering guidelines established for charge separation in earlier synthetic photochemical triads and modified natural proteins, and it shows how synthetic biology may lead to a new generation of genetically encoded, light-powered catalysts for solar fuel production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Kondo quasiparticle dynamics observed by resonant inelastic x-ray scattering

Effective models focused on pertinent low-energy degrees of freedom have substantially contributed to our qualitative understanding of quantum materials. An iconic example, the Kondo model, was key to demonstrating that the rich phase diagrams of correlated metals originate from the interplay of localized and itinerant electrons. Modern electronic structure calculations suggest that to achieve quantitative material-specific models, accurate consideration of the crystal field and spin-orbit interactions is imperative. This poses the question of how local high-energy degrees of freedom become incorporated into a collective electronic state. Here, we use resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (RIXS) on CePd 3 to clarify the fate of all relevant energy scales. We find that even spin-orbit excited states acquire pronounced momentum-dependence at low temperature—the telltale sign of hybridization with the underlying metallic state. Our results demonstrate how localized electronic degrees of freedom endow correlated metals with new properties, which is critical for a microscopic understanding of superconducting, electronic nematic, and topological states.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗