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DOE OSTI2024

A macro-micro approach for identifying crystal plasticity parameters for necking and failure in nickel-based alloy haynes 282

Here, this work develops a two-scales macro-micro approach to address the challenge in calibrating crystal plasticity microstructural models when samples undergo necking prior to fracture. The crystal plasticity models are crucial for predicting the materials’ plastic deformation and failure at the microstructure level, identifying the materials’ intrinsic properties as well as investigating the microstructure-properties relationships. However, after necking occurs, the experimentally measured stress-strain curves fail to reflect the materials ‘true’ stress-strain behavior and cannot be directly fitted into crystal plasticity models. The proposed macro-micro approach employs a top-down strategy to address this challenge, which has been studied with experimental tests on precipitation-strengthened Ni-based superalloy Haynes® 282®. In this approach, a macro rate-dependent anisotropic plasticity model with Voce-type hardening and Rice-Tracey damage law is first utilized to model the deformation and failure of the tensile bar, and calibrated by matching the stress-strain curves, necking strain, and reduction of area. Especially, to match the testing results under different applied strain rates, the rate-sensitivity parameter m and saturation stress in the elasticity model are modified to incorporate dependence on the local strain rate. Then, the ‘true’ stress-strain behaviors are extracted from the necking zone of the macro-model, which are used to calibrate a micro-model with explicit microstructures and governed by an extended crystal plasticity law. The consistency between the micro-model and macro-model are enforced during calibration. The calibration outcomes from the crystal plasticity model elucidate the materials intrinsic properties for slip, hardening, and failure, which is vital for further investigations into the microstructure-properties relationship and for accurate prediction of the material behavior under various test and service conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

RELAP5-3D validation studies based on the High Temperature Test facility

In the spring and summer of 2019, experiments were conducted at the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) that form the basis of an upcoming high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) thermal hydraulics (T/H) benchmark. HTTF is an integral effects test facility for HTGR T/H modeling validation. This paper presents RELAP5-3D models of two of those experiments: PG-27, a pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC); and PG-29, a depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC). These models used the RELAP5-3D model of HTTF originally developed by Paul Bayless as a starting point. The sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification code, RAVEN was used to perform calibration studies for the steady-state portion of PG-27. Here we developed four PG-27 calibrations based on steady-state conditions. These calibrations all used an effective thermal conductivity equal to 36 % of the measured thermal conductivity, but they differed with respect to the frictional pressure drops and radial conduction models. These models all captured the trends in steady-state temperature distributions and transient temperature behavior well. All four calibrations show room for improvement in predicting the transient temperature rise. The smallest error in temperature rise during the transient was a 21 % underprediction, and the largest was a 48 % underprediction. The errors in transient temperature rise are largely a result of a mismatch in power density between the RELAP5-3D model and the experiment due to the location of active heater rods along the boundary between heat structures in the model. The best of these calibrations was applied to PG-29 to model the DCC. Once again, temperatures during the transient were underpredicted but trends in temperature were captured. The RELAP5-3D model captured trends in the data but could not reproduce measured temperatures exactly. This result is not attributed to deficiencies in the experimental data or to RELAP5–3D itself. Rather, this result likely arises due to the some of the assumptions and decisions made when the RELAP5-3D model was first developed, prior to the execution of HTTF experiments. An agreement in prediction of temperature trends but challenges reproducing HTTF temperatures within measurement uncertainty is consistent with previous analyses of HTTF in the literature. Future RELAP5-3D validation activities centered around HTTF may be able to provide greater insight into the code’s capabilities for HTGR modeling with a more finely nodalized model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey: Dark Energy Survey year 3 weak gravitational lensing by eRASS1 selected galaxy clusters

Context. Number counts of galaxy clusters across redshift are a powerful cosmological probe if a precise and accurate reconstruction of the underlying mass distribution is performed – a challenge called mass calibration. With the advent of wide and deep photometric surveys, weak gravitational lensing (WL) by clusters has become the method of choice for this measurement. Aims. We measured and validated the WL signature in the shape of galaxies observed in the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) caused by galaxy clusters and groups selected in the first all-sky survey performed by SRG (Spectrum Roentgen Gamma)/eROSITA (eRASS1). These data were then used to determine the scaling between the X-ray photon count rate of the clusters and their halo mass and redshift. Methods. We empirically determined the degree of cluster member contamination in our background source sample. The individual cluster shear profiles were then analyzed with a Bayesian population model that self-consistently accounts for the lens sample selection and contamination and includes marginalization over a host of instrumental and astrophysical systematics. To quantify the accuracy of the mass extraction of that model, we performed mass measurements on mock cluster catalogs with realistic synthetic shear profiles. This allowed us to establish that hydrodynamical modeling uncertainties at low lens redshifts (z < 0.6) are the dominant systematic limitation. At high lens redshift, the uncertainties of the sources’ photometric redshift calibration dominate. Results. With regard to the X-ray count rate to halo mass relation, we determined its amplitude, its mass trend, the redshift evolution of the mass trend, the deviation from self-similar redshift evolution, and the intrinsic scatter around this relation. Conclusions. The mass calibration analysis performed here sets the stage for a joint analysis with the number counts of eRASS1 clusters to constrain a host of cosmological parameters. We demonstrate that WL mass calibration of galaxy clusters can be performed successfully with source galaxies whose calibration was performed primarily for cosmic shear experiments, opening the way for the cluster cosmological exploitation of future optical and NIR surveys like Euclid and LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

AWSD reactive flow model for PBX 9404

An Arrhenius–Wescott–Stewart–Davis (AWSD) reactive flow model for high explosive PBX 9404 is developed. We specifically calibrate an AWSD model for PBX 9404 by fitting equations of state for reactants and detonation products to the results of thermochemical calculations and to experimental data from multiple sources. The calibrated equations of state are then coupled with an Arrhenius rate law based on shock temperature that describes the reaction progress during PBX 9404 detonation. The parameter values in the rate law are calibrated to experimental gas-gun data and diameter effect results. The results of the calibrated AWSD model are in strong agreement with available experimental data for PBX 9404. A similar level of agreement between predicted and experimental results is observed when the calibrated model is validated on data that were not used in the model parameterization procedure. Our results illustrate that the AWSD model is capable of accurately describing the many important properties and observables in the reactive burn of PBX 9404. Because of the historical significance of PBX 9404 in high explosives research and its current use in aging studies, this work provides an important model of a legacy material, which can be used to make comparisons to new high explosive formulations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiplexing and Demultiplexing Signals for Radiography Application Using the Discrete Fourier Transform

Our goal is to develop an X-ray phase-contrast imaging system that can provide excellent soft tissue contrast of phase, attenuation, and small-angle scatter. We propose to replace the common system of G0, G1, and G2 gradings with a biprism array to replace the G1 grading and introduce a novel X-ray tube designed to replace the motion of the phase stepping grading G2. The proposed X-ray tube uses temporal multiplexing to provide simultaneous virtual “electronic phase stepping.” In this work the discrete Fourier transform is used to separate from the composite measurement individual X-ray phase contrast measurements sampled at different frequencies. The method performs a discrete Fourier transform of a composite refence sequence to obtain using the frequency amplitudes calibration factors needed to extract the X-ray phase contrast measurement amplitudes from the composite image. The composite reference sequence is the sum of the individual sequences, at different frequencies, with amplitudes of one. The method takes the discrete Fourier transform of this composite reference sequence; whereby, the amplitude of each frequency component is compared with the total sum of its stand-alone sequence amplitude. A calibration factor is determined so that the amplitude of this composite reference frequency times the calibration factor must equal the total sum of the sequence amplitude—the zero-frequency amplitude of the discrete Fourier transform of its stand-alone sequence. To demultiplex the composite measured signal these calibration factors are multiplied by the amplitudes of the frequency components of the discrete Fourier transform of the composite X-phase-contrast measurement to obtain the amplitude of each frequency encoded measurement. Using these calibration factors, we demonstrate with the discrete Fourier transform in Mathematica the extraction of individual images from a composite image that one would expect obtaining from our proposed new X-ray phase contrast imaging system. We then demonstrate as an example how using images from X-ray phase contrast data one can calculate phase, attenuation and the dark field images using grading phase step data supplied to use from Microworks, GmbH in Karlsruhe, Germany.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Results from the DUNE ND-LAr 2x2 Demonstrator Run 2

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a cutting-edge, long-baseline experiment under construction in the United States, based on large liquid-argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs). The DUNE Near Detector LArTPC (ND-LAr) will employ a novel modular architecture using a pixelated LArPix charge readout. To validate this design and characterize detector response, the 2×2 demonstrator—an array of eight optically isolated LArTPC modules—was deployed at Fermilab in 2024. During winter 2025, the 2x2 demonstrator was operated for a second data-taking campaign (Run 2) with the aim of studying the low-energy response of the detector. Run 2 focused on calibration and response studies using a suite of deployed radioactive sources. Gamma sources (²²Na, ⁶⁰Co, and ⁸⁸Y) were used to probe module-to-module performance variations, energy resolution, and calibrations. Neutron sources (AmBe and a pulsed neutron generator) enabled studies of neutron interactions in liquid argon, including inelastic scatters and neutron capture signals, relevant for low-energy backgrounds and detector modeling. In addition, the detector was doped with ²²⁰Rn, providing Bi–Po coincidence signals that allow precise calibration of the charge and scintillation response. This poster will present results from these calibration campaigns. These studies provide critical validation of the ND-LAr modular LArTPC concept and inform calibration and reconstruction strategies for the full DUNE near detector.

Mora-Lepin, Luis [Florida State U.] (ORCID:0000000↗

DOE OSTI2026

Building Energy Analysis of Manufactured and Multifamily Housing Types in Juneau, Alaska

This report details the results of building energy modeling analysis evaluating the potential energy savings, economic outcomes, and grid-level electricity reduction associated with cold climate air source heat pump (ccASHP) adoption across multifamily and manufactured housing (MMFH) building typologies in the City and Borough of Juneau (CBJ). Three building archetypes were evaluated: multifamily 4-plex apartments, multifamily 8-plex apartments, and manufactured housing units. Building energy models were developed using OpenStudio-HPXML and calibrated to actual utility consumption data and local meteorological data from the Juneau International Airport weather station using an automated calibration tool following the BPI-2400-S-2015 v.2 standard for model calibration. Occupant behaviors present the greatest variability in successful calibrations. Calibrated models were benchmarked against a baseline electric resistance heating condition, with the selected ccASHP modeled as the retrofit condition and typical meteorological year weather data for all results generation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological constraints from the Planck cluster catalogue with DES shear profiles and Chandra observations

We present cosmological constraints from the Planck PSZ2 cosmological cluster sample, using weak-lensing shear profiles from Dark Energy Survey (DES) data and X-ray observations from the Chandra telescope for the mass calibration. We compute hydrostatic mass estimates for all clusters in the PSZ2 sample with a scaling relation between their Sunyaev-Zeldovich signal and X-ray derived hydrostatic mass, calibrated with the Chandra data. We introduce a method to correct these masses with a hydrostatic mass bias using shear profiles from wide-field galaxy surveys. We simultaneously fit the number counts of the PSZ2 sample and the mass calibration with the DES data, finding $Ω_\text{m}=0.312^{+0.018}_{-0.024}$, $σ_8=0.777\pm 0.024$, $S_8\equiv σ_8 \sqrt{Ω_\text{m} / 0.3}=0.791^{+0.023}_{-0.021}$, and $(1-b)=0.844^{+0.055}_{-0.062}$ for our baseline analysis when combined with BAO data. When considering a hydrostatic mass bias evolving with mass, we find $Ω_\text{m}=0.353^{+0.025}_{-0.031}$, $σ_8=0.751\pm 0.023$, and $S_8=0.814^{+0.019}_{-0.020}$. We verify the robustness of our results by exploring a variety of analysis settings, with a particular focus on the definition of the halo centre used for the extraction of shear profiles. We compare our results with a number of other analyses, in particular two recent analyses of cluster samples obtained from SPT and eROSITA data that share the same mass calibration data set. We find that our results are in overall agreement with most late-time probes, in very mild tension with CMB results (1.6$σ$), and in significant tension with results from eROSITA clusters (2.9$σ$). We confirm that our mass calibration is consistent with the eROSITA analysis by comparing masses for clusters present in both Planck and eROSITA samples, eliminating it as a potential cause of tension.

Aymerich, G. [Orsay, IAS; AIM, Saclay] (ORCID:0009↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian parameter estimation and evaluation of the K -ω shear stress transport model for plane impinging jets

Numerical simulations with semi-empirical turbulence models are commonly used to model impinging jets, often used for cooling solid surfaces. In this work, the constants in the k-ω shear stress transport model in ANSYS FLUENT are calibrated to experimental velocity and heat transfer data for a plane turbulent impinging air jet to determine if Kennedy-O'Hagan calibration (Kennedy and O'Hagan 2001 J. R. Stat. Soc. B 63 425–64) can improve predictions of near-surface velocities and surface Nusselt numbers for similar flows. Impinging jets have been proposed to cool the target plates of the divertor in future magnetic fusion energy reactors, where simulations are used to estimate divertor performance. The flat-plate divertor (Wang et al 2009 Fusion Sci. Technol .56 1023–7) uses a plane jet of helium issuing from a B = 0.5 mm slot to cool a surface with radius of curvature of 44 B at a distance 4 B from the slot. Predictions from the calibrated numerical model are compared with independent experimental data at different flow conditions, as well as surface temperature data for a flat plate divertor test section. The contribution of this work is evaluation of the accuracy of a calibrated turbulence model for modest extrapolations in flow geometry and flow conditions for a plane impinging jet.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

StarDICE III: characterization of the photometric instrument with a collimated beam projector

The measurement of Type Ia supernovae magnitudes provides cosmological distances, which constrain dark energy parameters. Current and upcoming large photometric surveys require improved photometric calibration precision to reduce systematic uncertainties in cosmological constraints. The StarDICE experiment aims to establish accurate broad-band flux references for these surveys, targeting sub-percent precision in magnitude measurements. Achieving this requires precise filter bandpass measurements for both StarDICE and survey instruments with sub-nanometre accuracy. To this end, we developed the Collimated Beam Projector (CBP), an optical device for calibrating the throughput of astronomical telescopes and their filters. The CBP uses a tunable laser source and a reversed telescope to emit a parallel monochromatic light beam, continuously monitored in flux and wavelength. The CBP output flux is measured with a large-area photodiode calibrated relative to a NIST photodiode. Using CBP measurements, we derive the StarDICE telescope throughput and filter transmissions, anchoring them to NIST’s absolute calibration. After analysing systematic uncertainties, we achieved sub-nanometre accuracy for filter central wavelengths, measured filter transmission with ~0.5 per cent precision per 1 nm bin, and detected out-of-band leakages at a relative level of 10 –4 ⁠. Furthermore, we synthesized equivalent transmission for full pupil illumination from four sampled positions in the StarDICE telescope mirror, with ~0.2 nm accuracy for central wavelengths and 7 mmag for broad-band fluxes. This demonstrates our ability to characterize telescope throughput down to the millimagnitude, paving the way for future developments, such as the Rubin-CBP for measuring the LSST at Vera Rubin Observatory, and a portable CBP version for in-situ transmission monitoring.

Calibration↗

DOE OSTI2025

In-orbit operation of Resolve Filter Wheel and modulated X-ray source

The Resolve soft X-ray spectrometer is a high spectral resolution microcalorimeter spectrometer for the X-ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission. In the beam of Resolve, there is a filter wheel containing X-ray filters. In the beam, there is also an active calibration source, the modulated X-ray source (MXS), which can provide pulsed X-rays to facilitate gain calibration. The filter wheel consists of six filter positions. Two open positions, one 55 Fe source to aid in spectrometer characterization during the commissioning phase, and three transmission filters: a neutral density filter, an optical blocking filter, and a beryllium filter. The X-ray intensity, pulse period, and pulse separation of an MXS are highly configurable. Furthermore, the switch-on time is synchronized with the spacecraft’s internal clock to give accurate start and end times of the pulses. One of the issues raised during ground testing was the susceptibility of an MXS at high voltage to ambient light. Although measures were taken to mitigate the light leak, the efficacy of those measures must be verified in orbit. Along with an overview of issues raised during ground testing, we will discuss the calibration source and the filter performance in-flight and compare with the transmission curves present in the Resolve calibration database.

X-ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission/Resolve↗

DOE OSTI2026

Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) Core Project Final Report: Fiscal Years 2022-2024

The Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) is a world-leading solar calibration and measurement facility and maintains and disseminates the World Radiation Reference (essentially the W/m2) for the United States that is essential for traceable and accurate measurements of solar radiation at all solar generation facilities. SRRL operates two calibration facilities that meet International Standards Organization-17025 (ISO-17025) standards and provide unique high-quality calibrations to NREL and other U.S. Department of Energy laboratories. The Baseline Measurement System (BMS) at SRRL provides a high-quality record of solar irradiance and surface meteorological conditions. SRRL capabilities are used to develop (1) improved methods for the calibration of solar radiometers; (2) new standards through the ISO, the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), and the American Standards for Testing of Materials (ASTM) International; (c) solar radiation and meteorological models; and (d) advanced instrumentation and methods for operating solar measurement stations. The SRRL datasets are also critical for the validation of new models and datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). The research and development of solar radiation measurement systems and resource modeling techniques are essential for advancing the scientific basis for producing reliable resource data. Specifically, the spatial, temporal, and spectral (wavelength dependency) characteristics of the solar resource are required in several different time frames for various project phases.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rapid Inverse Parameter Inference Using Physics-Informed Neural Network

As Li-ion batteries become more essential in today's economy, tools need to be developed to accurately and rapidly diagnose a battery's internal state-of-health. Using a Li-ion battery's (high-rate) voltage response, it is proposed to determine a battery's internal state through Bayesian calibration. However, Bayesian calibration is notoriously slow and requires thousands of model runs. To accelerate parameter inference using Bayesian calibration, a surrogate model is developed to replace the underlying physics-based Li-ion model. Developing a surrogate model for rapid Bayesian calibration analysis is discussed for both the single particle model (SPM) and the pseudo two-dimensional (P2D) model. Surrogate models are constructed using physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) that encode the influence of internal properties on observed voltage responses. In practice, a neural network can be trained by: 1) using simulation results of the physics-based model (i.e., a data-loss approach); 2) using the residuals of the governing equations themselves (i.e., a physics-loss approach); or 3) using a combination of simulation results and governing equation residuals. In the present work, PINNs are developed using a variety of training losses and neural network architectures. In this analysis, it is shown that a PINN surrogate model can be reliably trained with only physics-informed loss. However, using a coupled data-informed and physics-loss approach produced the most accurate PINNs.

Bayesian calibration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neural Posterior Estimation for Scalable and Accurate Inverse Parameter Inference in Li-Ion Batteries

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE can infer parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, even if it leads to higher voltage reconstruction errors. We also demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters). The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Coal-Ash Characterization using Geophysical Methods & Machine Learning

Coal combustion products (CCP) are challenging to delineate in heterogeneous field settings. Conventional methods (test pits, coring, and laboratory analyses) are labor-intensive, slow, invasive, and provide sparse spatial coverage. This study evaluates whether rapid non-invasive geophysical screening methods—induced polarization (IP), magnetic susceptibility, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) —combined with surface colorimetry (RGB_24), can discriminate CCP-soil mixtures and provide reliable estimates of CCP content. Laboratory measurements were collected on five CCP-soil mixtures (series) and modeled using (i) a linear baseline, (ii) a calibrated non-linear (power-mean) model, and (iii) a machine-learning (ML) Random Forest approach, with validation via leave-one-series-out and site-specific tests. Across the five series, individual signals—particularly IP and magnetic susceptibility—were strongly predictive of ash content but were consistently outperformed by combined models. The pooled calibrated non-linear and ML models captured the observed non-linearity and achieved high accuracy and precision, improving on linear fits. Colorimetry showed the weakest direct relationship with ash content for the tested samples but improved performance when included in multi-signal models. At pre-selected 3.5% decision threshold, calibrated and ML approaches yielded near-perfect classification (Matthews correlation coefficient ˜ 1), suggesting strong practical operability for field screening. Additionally, field-analog tests highlighted the role of endmembers—accuracy declined without access to end-member measurements but was largely recovered by collecting a minimal labeled pair for local recalibration. With end members, accuracy remained high. Globally trained models performed well on three operational unknowns; however, series-specific refits provided the most accurate predictions. Overall, these results highlight the potential of combining rapid geophysics and minimal local calibration for improved coal-ash delineation.

Peshtani, Klaudio↗

DOE OSTI2025

A visco-plastic constitutive model for accurate densification and shape predictions in powder metallurgy hot isostatic pressing

Powder metallurgy hot isostatic pressing (PM-HIP) is an advanced manufacturing process that produces near net shape parts with high material utilization and uniform microstructures. Despite being used frequently to produce small-scale components, the application of PM-HIP to large-scale components is limited due to inadequate understanding of its complex mechanisms that cause unpredictable post-HIP shape distortions. A computational model can provide necessary information about the intermediate and final stages of the HIP process that can help understand it better and make accurate predictions. Generally, two types of computational models are employed for PM-HIP of metal powders, namely, plastic and visco-plastic models. Between these, the plastic model is preferred due to its cheaper calibration approach requiring less experimental data. However, the plastic model sometimes produces incorrect predictions when slight variations of the HIP conditions are encountered in practical situations. Therefore, this work presents a visco-plastic model that addresses these limitations of the plastic model. A novel modified calibration approach is employed for the visco-plastic model that utilizes less experimental data than existing approaches. With the new approach, the data requirement is same for both plastic and visco-plastic models. This also enables a quantitative comparison of plastic and visco-plastic models, which have been only qualitatively compared in the past. When calibrated with the same experimental data, both the models are found to produce similar results. In conclusion, the calibrated visco-plastic model is applied to several complex geometries, and the predictions are found to be in good agreement with experimental observations.

Hot isostatic pressing↗