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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21

Commuter preferences for a first-mile/last-mile microtransit service in the United States

Transportation system models rely heavily upon value of time (VOT) estimates to predict customer behavior. Accurate VOT estimates are particularly vital for planning new services such as on-demand ride hailing or microtransit because customers’ sensitivity to wait time, walk time, and route detour time affects their likelihood of selecting these modes. If an incorrect VOT is assumed during service planning, then ridership will be depressed because of a mismatch between their preferences and how the system is designed. In this paper, we report on the measurement of VOT for microtransit, a shared first-mile/last-mile mobility service, obtained using stated preference microdata from four U.S. cities. Here, we found a median in-vehicle VOT for microtransit of $\$$18.63 (95% CI: $\$$13.39–$\$$24.46) and an access VOT of $\$$75.38 (95% CI: $\$$59.22–$\$$94.96). The former is practically equal to the VOT we found for respondents’ current modes ($\$$20.24, 95% CI: $\$$13.71–$\$$26.94). We also found that men, younger riders, the highly educated, and transit riders are more likely to be interested in microtransit. Since the disutility of time spent on microtransit is not higher than that of other modes, we believe this new service has the potential to attract riders, and particularly if the system is designed with low waiting and walking times.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Microwave microscope studies of trapped vortex dynamics in superconductors

Trapped vortices in superconductors introduce residual resistance in superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities and disrupt the operation of superconducting quantum and digital electronic circuits. Understanding the detailed dynamics of trapped vortices under oscillating magnetic fields is essential for advancing these technologies. We have developed a near-field magnetic microwave microscope to study the dynamics of a limited number of trapped vortices under the probe when stimulated by a localized rf magnetic field. By measuring the local second-harmonic response (𝑃 2⁢f ) at subfemto-Watt levels, we isolate signals exclusively arising from trapped vortices, excluding contributions from surface defects and Meissner screening currents. Toy models of niobium superconductor hosting vortex pinning sites are introduced and studied with time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau (TDGL) simulations of probe/sample interaction to better understand the measured second-harmonic response. The simulation results demonstrate that the second-harmonic response of trapped vortex motion under a localized rf magnetic field shares key features with the experimental data. Here, this measurement technique provides access to vortex dynamics at the micrometer scale, such as depinning events and spatially resolved pinning properties, as demonstrated in measurements on a niobium film with an antidot flux pinning array.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Design, Deployment, and Characterization of the World’s First Flexible Large Power Transformer

GE Research and its partner Prolec GE have designed, built and deployed in the field the world’s first flexible power transformer. The flexible power transformer is a transmission class 3-phase autotransformer configurable in impedance and in voltage which allows it to serve as a universal spare for multiple units in a given fleet. However, the key innovation in this new concept is the online adjustable leakage impedance which allows the transformer to change its impedance without interrupting the transmission line operation. The flexible power transformer can be designed with up to three low voltage transmission class ratings and up to 12 impedance values changeable both online and offline. This report provides an overview of the design, manufacturing, testing, and commissioning of the 165kV, 60MVA prototype built including the results of the field performance validation tests. The prototype was specified in collaboration with Cooperative Energy, the utility host. It was designed and tested in the factory according to IEEE standard C57.12.00 and followed all protocols for transportation, installation, and commissioning of a power transformer. In addition to the prototype, a flexible protection system capable of automatically adjusting its settings upon the transformer impedance was also developed and deployed in the for testing and validation. On September 3, 2021 the prototype was energized in Cooperative Energy’s substation in Columbia, Mississippi to become the world’s first flexible power transformer in operation. Its performances and impact on the grid operation were demonstrated through different field tests. Results obtained confirm that the impedance of the flexible transformer can be varied under load through its full range, from 4.3% to 9.3%, without adverse impacts on the line operation, the protection system, the transformer stability and health condition. Results also proved that the flexible transformer is very effective in controlling power transfer through the line or load sharing between units operating in parallel. Indeed, it was proven that higher impedances decrease the thruput power of the transformer while lower impedances increase it. Up to 26MW was controllable on a line loading of 45MVA. It was also possible to demonstrate that the variation of the transformer impedance has no effect on the circulating current between units in parallel, except a minor transient during the impedance change. It was also proven that the flexible protection relay can update its protection settings automatically when the impedance change was detected. The prototype has operated continuously for more than 12 months now with a peak load exceeding 50MVA corresponding to >80% of its ONAN power rating. No alarm, trip or sign of failure has been reported by the utility. In addition to the development and deployment of the flexible transformer prototype, investigations were carried out on new nanodielectric fluids to replace the mineral oil used in power transformers with the goal of reducing their footprint and weight. The key parameters that were targeted for improvement included the breakdown voltage to reduce clearances between windings and tank hence the footprint; viscosity and thermal conductivity to increase the cooling efficiency and therefore to reduce the winding material. Several nanodielectric mixtures with mineral oil including with alumina (Al2O3), titania (TiO2) and Borum Nitrate (BN) with different surfactants have been analyzed and tested. Unfortunately, despite encouraging results no nanofluid candidate has been found viable to replace mineral oil. With the formulations tested, breakdown voltages are generally similar to mineral oil at lower particle contents and worse at higher particle contents. Viscosity appreciably increased at particles concertation over 2 wt% and thermal conductivity increased slightly at 5wt% and appears to be 10-15% higher at 10 wt% particle content. It is recommended to continue investigations to find solutions that can help increase the power density of future flexible power transformers. Flexible power transformers can significantly help the future power grid by providing more flexibility and resiliency. Indeed, by providing voltage and impedance flexibility, flexible power transformers reduce the need for multiple spares, hence inventory costs for utilities. With their online controllable impedance, they can provide support to the grid and help manage short-circuit currents, power flow, line congestion, and grid stability which will become more important with higher penetrations of intermittent renewable resources. During the field validation tests, it was demonstrated that up to 26MW was controllable on a line loading of 45MVA when the transformer impedance was varied from its minimum to its maximum range. Also, with the impedance range, the short-circuit currents could be reduced by up to 38% at the load side of the transformer. With its controllable impedance, flexible transformers can be used in future strategies of grid resilience to help better prepare the grid to face forecasted severe events including storms, heat waves and contingencies. The flexible power transformers can also find role in other applications including high voltage transmission cables such as offshore wind farms where solutions for energizing the cables and managing the reactive power are of critical importance. The designed flexible power transformer is now fully validated and ready for commercialization. Further analysis on the benefits of flexible power transformers for grid stability and short-circuit management including current limiting capability, reclosure and line restoration, control of inrush current, sizing of flexible AC components (FACTS) would help its rapid adoption by the industry.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Novel Decentralized PWM Interleaving Technique for Ripple Minimization in Series-Stacked DC-DC Converters: Preprint

Cascaded dc-dc converters are commonly used in applications where distributed energy sources or loads are connected to elevated voltage levels for power transfer. In such systems, it is advantageous to minimize the ripple on the bus current and voltage by proper phase shifting of the pulse-width modulation (PWM) pulses among the converters via a method known as interleaving. Existing approaches use either a centralized controller or separate communication lines among the stacked converters to control their relative PWM switch transitions. The key drawbacks are that these methods entail significant wiring, the central controller acts as a single point of failure, and implementation on very large numbers of units is impractical. In this paper, we introduce a decentralized interleaving control (DIC) strategy that acts on local current measurements at every converter and achieves communication-free PWM interleaving among the series-stacked converters. The proposed controller is simple in structure and is shown to converge asymptotically to the interleaved state irrespective of clock drifts among the digital signal processors. Experimental results are provided for a system of five series-connected converters showing a 10 times reduction in the current ripple compared to normal operation.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Unidirectional Sidechain Engineering to Construct Dual‐Asymmetric Acceptors for 19.23 % Efficiency Organic Solar Cells with Low Energy Loss and Efficient Charge Transfer

Abstract Achieving both high open‐circuit voltage ( V oc ) and short‐circuit current density ( J sc ) to boost power‐conversion efficiency (PCE) is a major challenge for organic solar cells (OSCs), wherein high energy loss ( E loss ) and inefficient charge transfer usually take place. Here, three new Y‐series acceptors of mono‐asymmetric asy‐YC11 and dual‐asymmetric bi‐asy‐YC9 and bi‐asy‐YC12 are developed. They share the same asymmetric D 1 AD 2 (D 1 =thieno[3,2‐ b ]thiophene and D 2 =selenopheno[3,2‐ b ]thiophene) fused‐core but have different unidirectional sidechain on D 1 side, allowing fine‐tuned molecular properties, such as intermolecular interaction, packing pattern, and crystallinity. Among the binary blends, the PM6 : bi‐asy‐YC12 one has better morphology with appropriate phase separation and higher order packing than the PM6 : asy‐YC9 and PM6 : bi‐asy‐YC11 ones. Therefore, the PM6 : bi‐asy‐YC12‐based OSCs offer a higher PCE of 17.16 % with both high V oc and J sc , due to the reduced E loss and efficient charge transfer properties. Inspired by the high V oc and strong NIR‐absorption, bi‐asy‐YC12 is introduced into efficient binary PM6 : L8‐BO to construct ternary OSCs. Thanks to the broadened absorption, optimized morphology, and furtherly minimized E loss , the PM6 : L8‐BO : bi‐asy‐YC12‐based OSCs achieve a champion PCE of 19.23 %, which is one of the highest efficiencies among these annealing‐free devices. Our developed unidirectional sidechain engineering for constructing bi‐asymmetric Y‐series acceptors provides an approach to boost PCE of OSCs.

Chemistry↗

Operational optimization for multi-functional charging station with electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles

The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs), combined with global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, has accelerated the development of EV charging and hydrogen refueling stations. In response to this demand, this paper introduces the concept of Multi-Functional Charging Station (MFCS) that integrates power generation, EV charging, battery swapping, and hydrogen refueling. A comprehensive operational model is developed for the MFCS that couples electricity and hydrogen conversion and storage technologies to enhance infrastructure utilization and improve overall system efficiency. The model also considers multiple revenue streams, including participation in energy and ancillary markets. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed model and evaluate its performance, a series of numerical experiments are conducted with different charger numbers, different electricity purchase limits, and different charger allocations. Numerical results demonstrate that shared charger configurations can lead to 8.11 % improvement in operational profit by improving resource utilization and reducing the number of depleted batteries at the end of operations compared to allocated charger setups. By varying the number of chargers, sensitivity analysis identifies diminishing marginal returns beyond about 45 chargers, suggesting it as an optimal sizing point under current settings. The integration of electricity and hydrogen conversion is also explored under scenarios with limited external electricity purchases. In conclusion, these findings indicate that optimizing charger allocation and energy management can significantly enhance station productivity and profitability, ultimately supporting the broader adoption of electrified and hydrogen-based transportation solutions.

Charging station↗

Using Digital and Web-Based Platforms to Enhance Nuclear Power Plant Knowledge Transfer - 20203

As the workforce ages, the loss of experienced personnel can result in a loss of important knowledge. Updating Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) research and guidance with the latest technology developments and operating experience is an important method to transfer knowledge between the retiring and incoming workforce. Studies suggest that the incoming workforce is accustomed to using digital and/or internet-based platforms to find information and may have a higher comfort with these types of platforms than they have with static, written reports. Additionally, the ease and speed of updating and delivering content through digital formats may offer an effective method for knowledge transfer and combining information from multiple reports into a single access point. EPRI has recently produced an online Decommissioning Hub available to members and is working on replicating the effort in the area of radioactive waste management called the Radwaste Web References. EPRI has extensive guidance in both disciplines. The Decommissioning Hub uses a wiki format to provide a platform that allows for both the updating of that guidance resulting from new research and new operating experiences, and combining related topical information from multiple reports. It also allows users to access the information based on key words and topical searches, and can be a tool for users to input experience to share with others. The Decommissioning Hub is accessed via a web-based portal and includes topical pages; experience summaries; a question and answer capability; and a smart search function of all EPRI decommissioning reports. Use of a wiki format allows users to input new experiences or modify existing experience summaries to add additional detail. EPRI moderates all content. The experience data base has been initially populated with information available in published EPRI reports and unpublished information currently available within EPRI. Moving forward, population of the database will continue with information available within the open literature, new information developed from current decommissioning projects, and user inputs. The web site became active in late 2017, and a major update will be issued in early 2020. Larger scale updates are planned biannually, and smaller-scale updates will occur continuously. Capturing and applying lessons learned from industry experiences is a hallmark of the global nuclear industry. This is even more important in the decommissioning technology area since very few plant staff have relevant experience and thus there is a steep learning curve. Moreover, decommissioning involves a number of complex, non-routine and specialized tasks. The web-accessible and searchable experience database provides an easy-to-use resource for capturing and disseminating practical experiences from completed and ongoing decommissioning projects. The EPRI Radwaste Web References will build upon the philosophy and objectives of the Radwaste Desk References that were published in the 1990's. The purpose of the original Radwaste Desk References was to provide nuclear power plant professionals with a how-to manual for managing radioactive waste. The Radwaste Web References will adopt this original purpose and will be a wiki type web site that provide fundamental practical and theoretical information, operating experience (OE), and information about advanced technologies and methods. As much as practicable, features that allow for interaction between users to share OE, best practices, and benchmarking will be added. Where they exist and are appropriate, the various EPRI Guidelines documents on radwaste topics will be updated and incorporated into the Radwaste Web References. The first Radwaste Web Reference will be on Low Level Waste Characterization and will build upon the EPRI Low Level Waste Characterization Guidelines (EPRI Report TR-107201, 1996) and will be available in 2020. The next Radwaste Web Reference will be on the topic of liquid radioactive waste processing and management, tentatively set for unveiling in 2021. This paper summarizes the EPRI's previous experiences with web-based platforms and future plans in this area. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Self-Driving Laboratory for Polymer Electronics

Owing to the chemical pluripotency and viscoelastic nature of electronic polymers, polymer electronics have shown unique advances in many emerging applications such as skin-like electronics, large-area printed energy devices, and neuromorphic computing devices, but their development period is years-long. Recent advancements in automation, robotics, and learning algorithms have led to a growing number of self-driving (autonomous) laboratories that have begun to revolutionize the development and accelerated discovery of materials. In this perspective, we first introduce the current state of autonomous laboratories. Then we analyze why it is challenging to conduct polymer electronics research by an autonomous laboratory and highlight the needs. Here, we further discuss our efforts in building an autonomous laboratory, namely Polybot, for the automated synthesis and characterization of electronic polymers and their processing and fabrication into electronic devices. Finally, we share our vision in using a self-driving laboratory for different types of polymer electronics research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Open Hardware in Science: The Benefits of Open Electronics

Abstract Openly shared low-cost electronic hardware applications, known as open electronics, have sparked a new open-source movement, with much untapped potential to advance scientific research. Initially designed to appeal to electronic hobbyists, open electronics have formed a global “maker” community and are increasingly used in science and industry. In this perspective article, we review the current costs and benefits of open electronics for use in scientific research ranging from the experimental to the theoretical sciences. We discuss how user-made electronic applications can help (I) individual researchers, by increasing the customization, efficiency, and scalability of experiments, while improving data quantity and quality; (II) scientific institutions, by improving access to customizable high-end technologies, sustainability, visibility, and interdisciplinary collaboration potential; and (III) the scientific community, by improving transparency and reproducibility, helping decouple research capacity from funding, increasing innovation, and improving collaboration potential among researchers and the public. We further discuss how current barriers like poor awareness, knowledge access, and time investments can be resolved by increased documentation and collaboration, and provide guidelines for academics to enter this emerging field. We highlight that open electronics are a promising and powerful tool to help scientific research to become more innovative and reproducible and offer a key practical solution to improve democratic access to science.

Oellermann, Michael (ORCID:0000000153926737)↗

Cooling Design and Thermal Analysis for Thermal Shields of a Cryocooler-Cooled Superconducting ECR Ion Source MARS-D Magnet

Here, a demonstrative NbTi based Mixed Axial and Radial field System (MARS-D) is being developed for a next-Generation Electron Cyclotron Resonance Ion Source (ECRIS) at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBL), which employs a novel closed-loop coil design scheme that more efficiently utilizes conductor fields and extend the application of NbTi for high frequency (up to 45 GHz) ECR operation. The NbTi MARS-D magnet consists of a single hexagonally shaped closed-loop coil and a set of auxiliary solenoids. A cryostat for cooling the MARS-D magnet is under design at LBL. The MARS-D magnet working around 4.2 K will be bath-cooled in liquid helium using multiple two-stage cryocoolers. An intermediate temperature thermal radiation shield is adopted to reduce the heat leakage imposed on 4.2 K coil cold mass from room temperature. The thermal shield is conduction-cooled by the first-stage cold heads of four two-stage cryocoolers and the cold head of a single-stage cryocooler shared with nine binary leads. The temperature in the area of the shield that warm ends of HTS leads are mounted on is expected no higher than 60 K, which is limited by maximum allowable working temperature of HTS leads. The paper presents thermal analysis on the thermal radiation shield including heat loads and effects of eddy current induced during quench on its material selection.

ECRIS↗

Epitaxial oxide thin films for oxygen electrocatalysis: A tutorial review

Epitaxial thin films can offer unprecedented definition of an electrocatalyst surface, defining the crystallographic orientation, interaction with a current collector, and providing an atomically flat surface for quantitative spectroscopy yielding mechanistic insight. This review introduces experts in thin films to the important parameters of electrochemical setups, techniques, and methods for quantifying electrocatalytic activity and comparing it across the literature. Examples are drawn from the literature measuring oxygen electrocatalysis on epitaxial oxide thin films. Furthermore, we share best practices in the robust measurement of intrinsic activity of thin films, including methods of electrical contact and assessment of charge transport in situ. We conclude by highlighting recent insights from epitaxial films in understanding oxygen electrocatalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DCFC + Hydrogen Station Design Optimization [Slides]

Both direct current fast charging (DCFC) and Hydrogen stations are working to create successful long-term business models; however, analyses for DCFC and hydrogen fueling infrastructure are almost always performed separately. This work provides a detailed exploration of the benefit of integrating DCFC and hydrogen stations to lower the total system cost from load balancing and equipment cost sharing. To achieve this we have adapted the REopt optimization framework to simultaneously optimize the design and operation of integrated DCFC and H2 fueling station. Results indicate that 1) combining hydrogen fueling and DCFC stations can significantly reduce lifetime costs compared to separated stations. 2) Co-location with additional site load reduces DCFC costs, however, integration of DCFC with hydrogen provides an even greater cost reduction. 3) Adding PV to combined stations further reduces the lifetime station cost. 4) Capital investments in station combination today can help reduce the cost of operating DCFC tomorrow and 5) product diversification acts as a hedge against variability and enables a more dynamic response to market changes.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Progress on Optimizing Wind Farms and Rotor Designs Using Adjoints

Modern wind plants are increasingly tasked with multiple performance objectives. In addition to designing plants that maximize power output and minimize the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), the design and operation of wind plants is increasingly influenced by challenges regarding grid integration of variable generation renewables. This places a growing emphasis on making wind plants more controllable and predictable. WindSE is a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model designed around analytical gradient and adjoint methods, with the ability to capture terrain-induced effects, as shown in Figure 1. The recent addition of an unsteady solver with an actuator line method (ALM) and ongoing work to enable massively parallel optimizations gives it a unique niche to explore coupled plant-level controls and design problems. This code is an open source python package built on the FEniCS framework that utilizes fast, parallel PETSc solvers to model fluid flow throughout wind-farm scale domains. Two recent studies performed using WindSE demonstrate the capability to optimize under a wide variety of flow conditions and objective functions. In the first, we present an optimization focused on modifying the layout of a wind farm with a fixed number of turbines for maximum total power output [1]. This study highlights the ability to quickly perform simulations using the steady Navier-Stokes solver combined with rotors represented as actuator disks while also stressing the importance of capturing terrain-induced effects. Gradient-based optimization using the RANS equations is viable due to the inclusion of efficiently computed adjoint derivatives. We interpret the physical results of the optimal layout and also discuss the computational cost of scaling to larger problems. In the second study, we present the capabilities of the unsteady Navier-Stokes solver, where rotor-blade profiles represented by actuator lines are optimized to enhance wake steering effects and overall power production [2]. We quantify the wind plant performance gains obtained from this type of simultaneous control co-design optimization as compared to optimizing the blade design and yaw independently. Figure 2 shows the differences between a baseline two-turbine system and an optimized system where we fine-tune the blade chord profile. Results and challenges from each study are quickly summarized and used to motivate the current development efforts within WindSE. Current and future work is focused on enabling higher-resolution studies with more degrees of freedom through parallelization of both the simulation and optimization algorithms. We present benchmarking results to show that WindSE performs well in both weak- and strong-scaling tests and further demonstrate that the optimizer obtains the same convergence rates in both shared- and distributed-memory environments. Using larger wind farms, we can study deep-array effects within an optimization context, allowing the use of objective functions that have been previously unstudied. As an example, we present ongoing work on a blockage metric which characterizes the loss of available kinetic energy due to wake effects from multiple upstream turbines.

adjoint optimization↗

PERLE: A novel facility for ERL development and applications in multi-turn configuration and high-power regime

The development of ERLs has been recognized as one of the five main pillars of accelerators R&D in support of the European Strategy for Particle Physics (ESPP). The international panel in charge of the ERL Roadmap definition recognized PERLE project as “a central part of the roadmap for the development of energy-recovery linacs”, with milestones to be achieved by the next ESPP in 2026. PERLE project is aiming at the construction of a novel ERL facility for the development and application of the energy recovery technique in multi-turn configuration, high current and large energy regime. It will operate in a 3-turns mode, first at 250 MeV, then upgraded to 500 MeV with 20mA beam current. Such challenging parameters make PERLE a unique multi-turn ERL facility operating at an unexplored operational power regime (10MW), studying and validating a broad range of accelerator phenomena, paving the way for the future larger scale ERLs. PERLE will be the necessary demonstrator for the future HEP machine (LHeC / FCC-eh), with which it shares the same technological choices and beam parameters. Furthermore, PERLE opens a new frontier for the physics of “the electromagnetic probe”. It will be the first ERL dedicated to Nuclear Physics for studying the eN interaction with radioactive nuclei. Here we will report on the project status, introduce the main ongoing achievements and describe the staged strategy we will adopt toward the construction of PERLE machine at its nominal performances.

Kaabi, Walid↗

A Field Enhancement Integration Design Featuring Misalignment Tolerance for Wireless EV Charging Using LCL Topology

This article proposes a magnetic integration design for EV wireless power transfer (WPT) systems, where the compensation and transmitting coils overlap one on top of the other to share the ferrite layer without any decoupling consideration. The magnetic field generated by both the compensation and transmitting coils are exploited to transfer power. To this end, a compensation method is proposed to enable magnetic field enhancement without any reactive power flow between the compensation and the transmitting coils, and to achieve input zero phase angle and constant current output. In addition, an efficient finite element analysis-based coil optimization algorithm is proposed to improve the coil misalignment tolerance on the horizontal plane, in which a reversely connected inner coil is used to stabilize the system output under misalignment conditions. Analytical and simulation results confirm transmission flux density enhancement and reduced leakage field characteristics of the proposed coil design. Finally, a scaled-down WPT prototype is built and tested to verify the performance and effectiveness of the design. The proposed design achieves 91.17% efficiency and misalignment tolerance up to 200 mm in any XY-direction while maintaining the power transfer and its efficiency. The results of this work provide insights into magnetic integration design of high-order compensation topologies featuring higher compactness, less ferrite usage, magnetic field enhancement, and misalignment tolerance for WPT systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Preliminary Results of a Multi-Sensor Data Science System for Monitoring a Solvent Extraction Process

Idaho National Laboratory is building a test bed to allow researchers the opportunity to study nuclear fuel processing operations. This includes studying the solvent extraction process and the use of centrifugal contactors. The goal of this project is to develop a system that utilizes non-traditional measurement sources such as vibration, acoustics, current, color, flow, and temperature in conjunction with data-based, machine learning techniques that will allow for signal discovery. This multi-sensor data supports the development of safeguards by design, provides operator process awareness, and aids in the discovery of process anomalies. This paper highlights some of the preliminary results from initial data collection campaigns and shares some of the lessons learned.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021

Abstract Current theoretically based Earth system models (ESMs) produce Effective Climate Sensitivities (EffCS) that range over a factor of three, with 80% of those models producing stronger global warming trends for 1970–2021 than do observations. To make a more observationally based estimate of EffCS, a 1D time-dependent forcing-feedback model of temperature departures from energy equilibrium is used to match measured ranges of global-average surface and sub-surface land and ocean temperature trends during 1970–2021. In response to two different radiative forcing scenarios, a full range of three model free parameters are evaluated to produce fits to a range of observed surface temperature trends (± 2σ) from four different land datasets and three ocean datasets, as well as deep-ocean temperature trends and borehole-based trend retrievals over land. Land-derived EffCS are larger than over the ocean, and EffCS is lower using the newer Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245, 1.86 °C global EffCS, ± 34% range 1.48–2.15 °C) than the older Representative Concentration Pathway forcing (RCP6, 2.49 °C global average EffCS, ± 34% range 2.04–2.87 °C). The strongest dependence of the EffCS results is on the assumed radiative forcing dataset, underscoring the role of radiative forcing uncertainty in determining the sensitivity of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations from observations alone. The results are consistent with previous observation-based studies that concluded EffCS during the observational period is on the low end of the range produced by current ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗