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NASA NTRS2013

Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions

Simulated hydroclimate variability in millennium-length forced transient and control simulations from the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) is analyzed and compared to 1000 years of reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) variability from the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The ability of the model to simulate megadroughts in the North American southwest is evaluated. (NASW: 25deg42.5degN, 125deg-105degW). Megadroughts in the ECHO-G AOGCM are found to be similar in duration and magnitude to those estimated from the NADA. The droughts in the forced simulation are not, however, temporally synchronous with those in the paleoclimate record, nor are there significant differences between the drought features simulated in the forced and control runs. These results indicate that model-simulated megadroughts can result from internal variability of the modeled climate system rather than as a response to changes in exogenous forcings. Although the ECHO-G AOGCM is capable of simulating megadroughts through persistent La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, other mechanisms can produce similarly extreme NASW moisture anomalies in the model. In particular, the lack of low-frequency coherence between NASW soil moisture and simulated modes of climate variability like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during identified drought periods suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability can contribute significantly to the occurrence of simulated megadroughts in the NASW. These findings indicate that either an expanded paradigm is needed to understand multidecadal hydroclimate variability in the NASW or AOGCMs may incorrectly simulate the strength and/or dynamics of the connection between NASW hydroclimate variability and the tropical Pacific.

variability↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Enhanced Seasonal Transition that Intensified Summer Drought in the Central U.S.

Precipitation in the central U.S. decreases by about 25% during the seasonal transition from June to July, and this precipitation decrease has been observed to have intensified since 1979. Such an intensification could enhance future spring drought occurrences such as was the case in the 2012 "flash drought" in the Midwestern U.S., where conditions evolved quickly from being abnormally dry to exceptionally dry within a mere month from June to July. In this study, various atmospheric and land reanalysis datasets were analyzed to examine the trend calculated from 1979 to 2012 in the June-to-July seasonal transition. It was found that the change in precipitation deficit was accompanied by increased downward shortwave radiation flux and tropospheric subsidence, enhanced evaporative fraction, as well as an elevated planetary boundary layer height. The change in the tropospheric circulation encompassed an anomalous ridge over the western U.S. and a trough on either side; this wave-form circulation pattern is known to induce dry conditions in the central U.S. Possibly, the trends in the June-to-July seasonal shifts in precipitation, drought severity and tropospheric circulation intensified the 2012 "flash drought" in timing and extent. The knowledge of the trends allows one to anticipate the evolution of spring onset of drought into the summer.

Drought↗

NASA NTRS2018

Developing a Remotely Sensed Drought Monitoring Indicator for Morocco

Drought is one of the most serious climatic and natural disasters inflicting serious impacts on the socio-economy of Morocco, which is characterized both by low-average annual rainfall and high irregularity in the spatial distribution and timing of precipitation across the country. This work aims to develop a comprehensive and integrated method for drought monitoring based on remote sensing techniques. The main input parameters are derived monthly from satellite data at the national scale and are then combined to generate a composite drought index presenting different severity classes of drought. The input parameters are: Standardized Precipitation Index calculated from satellite-based precipitation data since 1981 (CHIRPS), anomalies in the day-night difference of Land Surface Temperature as a proxy for soil moisture, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index anomalies from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and Evapotranspiration anomalies from surface energy balance modeling. All of these satellite-based indices are being used to monitor vegetation condition, rainfall and land surface temperature. The weighted combination of these input parameters into one composite indicator takes into account the importance of the rainfall-based parameter (SPI). The composite drought index maps were generated during the growing seasons going back to 2003. These maps have been compared to both the historical, in situ precipitation data across Morocco and with the historical yield data across different provinces with information being available since 2000. The maps are disseminated monthly to several main stakeholders' groups including the Ministry of Agriculture and Department of Water in Morocco.

Drought monitoring↗

NASA NTRS2021

Evaluating Drought Responses of Surface Ozone Precursor Proxies: Variations With Land Cover Type, Precipitation, and Temperature

Prior work suggests drought exacerbates US air quality by increasing surface ozone concentrations. We analyze 2005–2015 tropospheric column concentrations of two trace gases that serve as proxies for surface ozone precursors retrieved from the OMI/Aura satellite: Nitrogen dioxide (ΩNO2; NOx proxy) and formaldehyde (ΩHCHO; VOC proxy). We find 3.5% and 7.7% summer drought enhancements (classified by SPEI) for ΩNO2 and ΩHCHO, respectively, corroborating signals previously extracted from ground‐level observations. When we subset by land cover type, the strongest ΩHCHO drought enhancement (10%) occurs in the woody savannas of the Southeast US. By isolating the influences of precipitation and temperature, we infer that enhanced biogenic VOC emissions in this region increase ΩHCHO independently with both high temperature and low precipitation during drought. The strongest ΩNO2 drought enhancement (6.0%) occurs over Midwest US croplands and grasslands, which we infer to reflect the sensitivity of soil NOx emissions to temperature.

drought↗

NASA NTRS2022

Global Gridded Crop Models Underestimate Yield Responses to Droughts and Heatwaves

Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compared observed and simulated impact of past droughts and heatwaves on yields for four crops (maize, rice, soy, wheat). We found that most models detect but underestimate the impact of droughts and heatwaves on yield. Specifically, the drought signal was detected by 12 of 13 models for maize and all models for wheat, while the heat signal was detected by eleven models for maize and six models for wheat. To investigate whether the difference between simulated and observed yield declines is due to a misrepresentation of simulated exposure to heat or water scarcity (i.e. misrepresentation of growing season), we analysed the relationship between average discrepancies between observed and simulated yield losses, and average simulated exposure to extreme weather conditions across all crop models. We found a positive correlation between simulated exposure to heat and model performance for heatwaves, but found no correlation for droughts. This suggests that there is a systematic underestimation of yield responses to heat and drought and not only a misrepresentation of exposure. Assuming that performance for the past indicates models' capacity to project future yield impacts, models likely underestimate future yield decline from climate change. High-quality temporally and spatially resolved observational data on growing seasons will be highly valuable to further improve crop models' capacity to adequately respond to extreme weather events.

extreme events↗

NASA NTRS2023

Multiyear La Niña Events and Multiseason Drought in the Horn of Africa

One of the primary sources of predictability for seasonal hydroclimate forecasts are sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Multiyear La Niña events in particular may be both predictable at long lead times and favor drought in the bimodal rainfall regions of East Africa. However, SST patterns in the tropical Pacific and adjacent ocean basins often differ substantially between first- and second-year La Niñas, which can change how these events affect regional climate. Here, we demonstrate that multiyear La Niña events favor drought in the Horn of Africa in three consecutive seasons [October–December (OND), March–May (MAM), OND]. But they do not tend to increase the probability of a fourth season of drought owing to the sea surface temperatures and associated atmospheric teleconnections in the MAM long rains season following second-year La Niña events. First-year La Niñas tend to have both greater subsidence over the Horn of Africa, associated with warmer waters in the west Pacific that enhance the Walker circulation, and greater cross-continental moisture transport, associated with a warm tropical Atlantic, as compared to second-year La Niñas. Both the increased subsidence and enhanced cross-continental moisture transport favors drought in the Horn of Africa. Our results provide a physical understanding of the sources and limitations of predictability for using multiyear La Niña forecasts to predict drought in the Horn of Africa.

Climate variability↗

NASA NTRS2023

Southern Rockies Western Slope Agriculture: Identifying Drivers of Rangeland Production for Drought Planning on the Western Slope of the Southern Rockies

Over the last decade, the southern Rocky Mountains of the United States experienced severe and variable drought. Local ranchers and landowners have reported strain on their operations, citing decreasing forage for their cattle and a need to adjust their business models. This study identified Major Land Resource Area-48 (MLRA-48) and northwestern Colorado as the key region for analysis. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the BLM Colorado River Field Office, Colorado State University Extension, USDA Forest Service, and the National Drought Mitigation Center to address concerns regarding the efficacy of remotely sensed rangeland production platforms and identify early warning climatic indicators of drought. The study identified two key platforms, The Rangeland Productivity Monitoring Service (RPMS) and Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP), which use NASA Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+, Landsat 8 OLI, and Landsat 9 OLI-2 to estimate rangeland biomass. We regressed these with in situ biomass data to validate their efficacy and found that RAP was more effective than RPMS in estimating rangeland biomass, though it presents a tendency to overestimate. Our study performed a random forest analysis, comparing monthly RAP biomass estimates to a variety of climate variables, including mean precipitation, temperature, Palmer Drought Severity Index, snow water equivalent, snow persistence from Terra MODIS, wind speed and direction, and vapor pressure deficit. We determined that vapor pressure deficit and precipitation are key indicators in predicting forage production in MLRA-48. Our climate analysis provided our partners with greater understanding of the influence of various climate variables in determining rangeland production and allows them to assist land managers in drought mitigation.

remote sensing↗

DOE OSTI2018

Interannual variations in needle and sapwood traits of Pinus edulis branches under an experimental drought

Abstract In the southwestern USA , recent large‐scale die‐offs of conifers raise the question of their resilience and mortality under droughts. To date, little is known about the interannual structural response to droughts. We hypothesized that piñon pines ( Pinus edulis ) respond to drought by reducing the drop of leaf water potential in branches from year to year through needle morphological adjustments. We tested our hypothesis using a 7‐year experiment in central New Mexico with three watering treatments (irrigated, normal, and rain exclusion). We analyzed how variation in “evaporative structure” (needle length, stomatal diameter, stomatal density, stomatal conductance) responded to watering treatment and interannual climate variability. We further analyzed annual functional adjustments by comparing yearly addition of needle area ( LA ) with yearly addition of sapwood area ( SA ) and distance to tip ( d ), defining the yearly ratios SA : LA and SA : LA / d . Needle length ( l ) increased with increasing winter and monsoon water supply, and showed more interannual variability when the soil was drier. Stomatal density increased with dryness, while stomatal diameter was reduced. As a result, anatomical maximal stomatal conductance was relatively invariant across treatments. SA : LA and SA : LA / d showed significant differences across treatments and contrary to our expectation were lower with reduced water input. Within average precipitation ranges, the response of these ratios to soil moisture was similar across treatments. However, when extreme soil drought was combined with high VPD , needle length, SA : LA and SA : LA / d became highly nonlinear, emphasizing the existence of a response threshold of combined high VPD and dry soil conditions. In new branch tissues, the response of annual functional ratios to water stress was immediate (same year) and does not attempt to reduce the drop of water potential. We suggest that unfavorable evaporative structural response to drought is compensated by dynamic stomatal control to maximize photosynthesis rates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Monitoring Terrestrial Water Storage, Drought and Seasonal Changes in Central Oklahoma With Ambient Seismic Noise

Abstract Significant imbalances in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and severe drought have been observed around the world as a consequence of climate changes. Improving our ability to monitor TWS and drought is critical for water‐resource management and water‐deficit estimation. We use continuous seismic ambient noise to monitor temporal evolution of near‐surface seismic velocity, dv / v , in central Oklahoma from 2013 to 2022. The derived dv / v is found to be negatively correlated with gravitational measurements and groundwater depths, showing the impact of groundwater storage on seismic velocities. The hydrological effects involving droughts and recharge of groundwater occur on a multi‐year time scale and dominate the overall derived velocity changes. The thermoelastic response to atmospheric temperature variations occurs primarily on a yearly timescale and dominates the superposed seasonal velocity changes in this study. The occurrences of droughts appear simultaneously with local peaks of dv / v , demonstrating the sensitivity of near‐surface seismic velocities to droughts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

The genomic landscape of molecular responses to natural drought stress in Panicum hallii

Environmental stress is a major driver of ecological community dynamics and agricultural productivity. This is especially true for soil water availability, because drought is the greatest abiotic inhibitor of worldwide crop yields. Here, we test the genetic basis of drought responses in the genetic model for C4 perennial grasses, Panicum hallii, through population genomics, field-scale gene-expression (eQTL) analysis, and comparison of two complete genomes. While gene expression networks are dominated by local cis-regulatory elements, we observe three genomic hotspots of unlinked trans-regulatory loci. These regulatory hubs are four times more drought responsive than the genome-wide average. Additionally, cis- and trans-regulatory networks are more likely to have opposing effects than expected under neutral evolution, supporting a strong influence of compensatory evolution and stabilizing selection. These results implicate trans-regulatory evolution as a driver of drought responses and demonstrate the potential for crop improvement in drought-prone regions through modification of gene regulatory networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tree mortality during long-term droughts is lower in structurally complex forest stands

Increasing drought frequency and severity in a warming climate threaten forest ecosystems with widespread tree deaths. Canopy structure is important in regulating tree mortality during drought, but how it functions remains controversial. Here, we show that the interplay between tree size and forest structure explains drought-induced tree mortality during the 2012-2016 California drought. Through an analysis of over one million trees, we find that tree mortality rate follows a “negative-positive-negative” piecewise relationship with tree height, and maintains a consistent negative relationship with neighborhood canopy structure (a measure of tree competition). Trees overshadowed by tall neighboring trees experienced lower mortality, likely due to reduced exposure to solar radiation load and lower water demand from evapotranspiration. Our findings demonstrate the significance of neighborhood canopy structure in influencing tree mortality and suggest that re-establishing heterogeneity in canopy structure could improve drought resiliency. Our study also indicates the potential of advances in remote-sensing technologies for silvicultural design, supporting the transition to multi-benefit forest management.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Increased photosynthesis during spring drought in energy-limited ecosystems

Abstract Drought is often thought to reduce ecosystem photosynthesis. However, theory suggests there is potential for increased photosynthesis during meteorological drought, especially in energy-limited ecosystems. Here, we examine the response of photosynthesis (gross primary productivity, GPP) to meteorological drought across the water-energy limitation spectrum. We find a consistent increase in eddy covariance GPP during spring drought in energy-limited ecosystems (83% of the energy-limited sites). Half of spring GPP sensitivity to precipitation was predicted solely from the wetness index (R 2 = 0.47, p < 0.001), with weaker relationships in summer and fall. Our results suggest GPP increases during spring drought for 55% of vegetated Northern Hemisphere lands ( >30° N). We then compare these results to terrestrial biosphere model outputs and remote sensing products. In contrast to trends detected in eddy covariance data, model mean GPP always declined under spring precipitation deficits after controlling for air temperature and light availability. While remote sensing products captured the observed negative spring GPP sensitivity in energy-limited ecosystems, terrestrial biosphere models proved insufficiently sensitive to spring precipitation deficits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Disentangling plant- and environment-mediated drivers of active rhizosphere bacterial community dynamics during short-term drought

Abstract Mitigating the effects of climate stress on crops is important for global food security. The microbiome associated with plant roots, the rhizobiome, can harbor beneficial microbes that alleviate stress, but the factors influencing their recruitment are unclear. We conducted a greenhouse experiment using field soil with a legacy of growing switchgrass and common bean to investigate the impact of short-term drought severity on the recruitment of active bacterial rhizobiome members. We applied 16S rRNA and 16S rRNA gene sequencing for both crops and metabolite profiling for switchgrass. We included planted and unplanted conditions to distinguish environment- versus plant-mediated rhizobiome drivers. Differences in community structure were observed between crops and between drought and watered and planted and unplanted treatments within crops. Despite crop-specific communities, drought rhizobiome dynamics were similar across the two crops. The presence of a plant more strongly explained the rhizobiome variation in bean (17%) than in switchgrass (3%), with a small effect of plant mediation during drought observed only for the bean rhizobiome. The switchgrass rhizobiome was stable despite changes in rhizosphere metabolite profiles between planted and unplanted treatments. We conclude that rhizobiome responses to short-term drought are crop-specific, with possible decoupling of plant exudation from rhizobiome responses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming

Spatially compounding extremes pose substantial threats to globally interconnected socio-economic systems. In this study we use multiple large ensemble simulations of the high-emissions scenario to show increased risk of compound droughts during the boreal summer over ten global regions. Relative to the late twentieth century, the probability of compound droughts increases by ~40% and ~60% by the middle and late twenty-first century, respectively, with a disproportionate increase in risk across North America and the Amazon. These changes contribute to an approximately ninefold increase in agricultural area and population exposure to severe compound droughts with continued fossil-fuel dependence. ENSO is the predominant large-scale driver of compound droughts with 68% of historical events occurring during El Niño or La Niña conditions. With ENSO teleconnections remaining largely stationary in the future, a ~22% increase in frequency of ENSO events combined with projected warming drives the elevated risk of compound droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought’s impact on plant productivity

The ability to precisely predict ecosystem drought response and recovery is necessary to produce reliable forecasts of land carbon uptake and future climate. Using a suite of models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we assessed modeled net primary productivity (NPP) response to, and recovery from, drought events against a benchmark derived from tree ring observations between 1948 and 2008 across forested regions of the US and Europe. We find short lag times (0–6 months) between climate anomalies and modeled NPP response. Even though models accurately simulate the direction of drought legacy effects (i.e. NPP decreases), projected effects are approximately four times shorter and four times weaker than observations suggest. This discrepancy between observed and simulated vegetation recovery from drought reveals a potential critical model deficiency. Since productivity is a crucial component of the land carbon balance, models that underestimate drought recovery time could overestimate predictions of future land carbon sink strength and, consequently, underestimate forecasts of atmospheric CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rising temperatures intensify drought propagation and severity across the contiguous United States

Droughts can propagate from meteorological droughts (MD) into agricultural (AD) and hydrological droughts (HD). However, the mechanisms by which rising temperatures and changes in precipitation amount influence MD propagation, and how these dynamics vary across U.S., are not yet fully understood. This gap is critical given the U.S.’s diverse climates and land-use patterns, which lead to region-specific drought vulnerabilities and impacts, such as the 2012 AD in the Great Plains and the 2014 HD in the western U.S. Using a dynamical-statistical framework, we assess warming impacts on drought propagation. Results reveal that the Midwest and Southeast, key agricultural regions, show the largest increases in MD propagation to AD/HD, driven by rising temperatures and declining precipitation, though magnitudes vary regionally. In contrast, the Northeast shows reduced propagation due to increased year-round precipitation. Higher-intensity AD/HD events become disproportionately more likely, with rates varying by region and MD intensity.

Yan, Hongxiang [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2019

Mechanisms of a coniferous woodland persistence under drought and heat

Predictions of warmer droughts causing increasing forest mortality are becoming abundant, yet fewer studies have investigated the mechanisms of forest persistence. To examine the resistance of forests to warmer droughts, we used a five-year precipitation reduction (~45% removal), heat (+4°C above ambient) and combined drought and heat experiment in an isolated stand of mature Pinus edulis-Juniperus monosperma . Despite severe experimental drought and heating, no trees died, and we observed only minor evidence of hydraulic failure or carbon starvation. Two mechanisms promoting survival were supported. First, access to bedrock water, or ‘hydraulic refugia’ aided trees in their resistance to the experimental conditions. Second, the isolation of this stand amongst a landscape of dead trees precluded ingress by Ips confusus , frequently the ultimate biotic mortality agent of piñon. These combined abiotic and biotic landscape-scale processes can moderate the impacts of future droughts on tree mortality by enabling tree avoidance of hydraulic failure, carbon starvation, and exposure to attacking abiotic agents.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

SENSITIVE TO FREEZING2 Aids in Resilience to Salt and Drought in Freezing-Sensitive Tomato

SENSITIVE TO FREEZING2 (SFR2) is crucial for protecting chloroplast membranes following freezing in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana). It has been shown that SFR2 homologs are present in all land plants, including freezing-sensitive species, raising the question of SFR2 function beyond freezing tolerance. Similar to freezing, salt and drought can cause dehydration. Thus, it is hypothesized that in freezing-sensitive plants SFR2 may play roles in their resilience to salt or drought. To test this hypothesis, SlSFR2 RNAi lines were generated in the cold/freezing-sensitive species tomato (Solanum lycopersicum [M82 cv]). Hypersensitivity to salt and drought of SlSFR2-RNAi lines was observed. Higher tolerance of wild-type tomatoes was correlated with the production of trigalactosyldiacylglycerol, a product of SFR2 activity. Tomato SFR2 in vitro activity is Mg 2+ -dependent and its optimal pH is 7.5, similar to that of Arabidopsis SFR2, but the specific activity of tomato SFR2 in vitro is almost double that of Arabidopsis SFR2. When salt and drought stress were applied to Arabidopsis, no conditions could be identified at which SFR2 was induced prior to irreversibly impacting plant growth, suggesting that SFR2 protects Arabidopsis primarily against freezing. Discovery of tomato SFR2 function in drought and salt resilience provides further insights into general membrane lipid remodeling-based stress tolerance mechanisms and together with protection against freezing in freezing-resistant plants such as Arabidopsis, it adds lipid remodeling as a possible target for the engineering of abiotic stress-resilient crops.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗