Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Decadal prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

Pan-Continental Droughts in North America over the Last Millennium

Regional droughts are common in North America, but pan-continental droughts extending across multiple regions, including the 2012 event, are rare relative to single-region events. Here, the tree-ring-derived North American Drought Atlas is used to investigate drought variability in four regions over the last millennium, focusing on pan-continental droughts. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains (CP), Southwest (SW), and Southeast (SE) regions experienced drier conditions and increased occurrence of droughts and the Northwest (NW) experienced several extended pluvials. Enhanced MCA aridity in the SW and CP manifested as multidecadal megadroughts. Notably, megadroughts in these regions differed in their timing and persistence, suggesting that they represent regional events influenced by local dynamics rather than a unified, continental-scale phenomena. There is no trend in pan-continental drought occurrence, defined as synchronous droughts in three or more regions. SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts are the most common, occurring in 12 percent of all years and peaking in prevalence during the twelfth and thirteenth centuries; patterns involving three other regions occur in about 8 percent of years. Positive values of the Southern Oscillation index (La Nina conditions) are linked to SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts and SW, CP, and NW (SW+CP+NW) droughts, whereas CP, NW, and SE (CP+NW+SE) droughts are associated with positive values of the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. While relatively rare, pan-continental droughts are present in the paleo record and are linked to defined modes of climate variability, implying the potential for seasonal predictability. Assuming stable drought teleconnections, these events will remain an important feature of future North American hydroclimate, possibly increasing in their severity in step with other expected hydroclimate responses to increased greenhouse gas forcing.

anomalies↗

Arctic Amplification: Process Drivers and Sources of Uncertainty

Arctic amplification (AA) is a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean process. This understanding has evolved from the early concept of AA, as a consequence of snow ice line progressions, through more than a century of research that has clarified the relevant processes and driving mechanisms of AA. The predictions made by early modeling studies, namely the fall/winter maximum, bottom-heavy structure, the prominence of surface albedo feedback, and the importance of stable stratification have withstood the scrutiny of multi-decadal observations and more complex models. Yet, the uncertainty in Arctic climate projections is larger than in any other region of the planet, making the assessment of high-impact, near-term regional changes difficult or impossible. Reducing this large spread in Arctic climate projections requires a quantitative process understanding. This presentation synthesizes current knowledge of AA and describes a set of recommendations to guide future research. It briefly reviews the history of AA science, summarizes observed Arctic changes, discusses modeling approaches and feedback diagnostics, and assesses the current understanding of the most relevant feedbacks to AA. These sections culminate in a conceptual model of the fundamental physical mechanisms causing AA and a collection of recommendations to accelerate progress towards reduced uncertainty in Arctic climate projections. Our conceptual model highlights the need to account for local feedback and remote process interactions within the context of the annual cycle to constrain projected AA.

Patrick C Taylor↗

Developing Open-Source Training Materials for AI/ML and Space Biological Sciences Using NASA Cloud-Based Data

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) has gained significant traction in the biological and biomedical research fields in the last two decades, in part thanks to an increasing culture of open data sharing and reuse. Due to its capability for identifying complex relationships and patterns, AI/ML methodology is particularly well suited to recognize and predict biological patterns from high-dimensional next-generation sequencing data (e.g. whole genome sequencing, transcriptomic sequencing), as well as from biological or medical imaging data (e.g. microscopy, computed tomography, ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging, radiography). These methodologies hold particular promise for space biosciences research and automated space health monitoring systems. However, there are many key considerations for properly training, validating, and testing a machine learning model in biological research or clinical application. Even with the positive culture of Open Science and data sharing, inexperienced researchers working quickly without proper checks can produce models that perform poorly outside of the immediate training dataset. Lessons learned from biological AI/ML research indicate that Open Science principles such as data sharing and open-source code must go hand-in-hand with publicly available, high-quality training curricula in best practices, with modules centered on real-life scientific use cases and data so future AI/ML practitioners gain experience on real problems. Here we present the development of open-source training materials for AI/ML and space biosciences, as part of the NASA Transform to Open Science Training (TOPST) initiative. We develop 4 independent training programs, focused on the following topics: 1) Fundamentals of Machine Learning and Space Biosciences Domain, 2) Open Science, Artificial Intelligence, and Ethical Best Practices for Data Sharing and Analysis, 3) Using AI/ML Classification to Identify Gene Networks Affected By Space Exposure in Mouse Liver, and 4) Using Neural Networks to Find DNA Damage Patterns in Immune Cells after Radiation. All programs leverage cloud-based NASA biological datasets. The curriculum we present will enable worldwide access to training in AI/ML and scientific analysis.

James Andrew Casaletto↗

Ice Mass Fluctuations and Earthquake Hazard

In south central Alaska, tectonic strain rates are high in a region that includes large glaciers undergoing ice wastage over the last 100-150 years [Sauber et al., 2000; Sauber and Molnia, 2004]. In this study we focus on the region referred to as the Yakataga segment of the Pacific-North American plate boundary zone in Alaska. In this region, the Bering and Malaspina glacier ablation zones have average ice elevation decreases from 1-3 meters/year (see summary and references in Molnia, 2005). The elastic response of the solid Earth to this ice mass decrease alone would cause several mm/yr of horizontal motion and uplift rates of up to 10-12 mm/yr. In this same region observed horizontal rates of tectonic deformation range from 10 to 40 mm/yr to the north-northwest and the predicted tectonic uplift rates range from -2 mm/year near the Gulf of Alaska coast to 12mm/year further inland [Savage and Lisowski, 1988; Ma et al, 1990; Sauber et al., 1997, 2000, 2004; Elliot et al., 2005]. The large ice mass changes associated with glacial wastage and surges perturb the tectonic rate of deformation at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. The associated incremental stress change may enhance or inhibit earthquake occurrence. We report recent (seasonal to decadal) ice elevation changes derived from data from NASA's ICESat satellite laser altimeter combined with earlier DEM's as a reference surface to illustrate the characteristics of short-term ice elevation changes [Sauber et al., 2005, Muskett et al., 2005]. Since we are interested in evaluating the effect of ice changes on faulting potential, we calculated the predicted surface displacement changes and incremental stresses over a specified time interval and calculated the change in the fault stability margin using the approach given by Wu and Hasegawa [1996]. Additionally, we explored the possibility that these ice mass fluctuations altered the seismic rate of background seismicity. Although we primarily focus on evaluating the influence of ice mass changes since the end of the little Ice Age, the study is partially motivated by paleoseismic evidence from Yakataga and Kodiak regions which suggests that earlier glacier retreat may be associated with large earthquakes [Sauber et al., 2000; Carver et al., 2003].

Sauber, J.↗

Computational simulation of acoustic fatigue for hot composite structures

Predictive methods/computer codes for the computational simulation of acoustic fatigue resistance of hot composite structures subjected to acoustic excitation emanating from an adjacent vibrating component are discussed. Select codes developed over the past two decades at the NASA Lewis Research Center are used. The codes include computation of acoustic noise generated from a vibrating component, degradation in material properties of a composite laminate at use temperature, dynamic response of acoustically excited hot multilayered composite structure, degradation in the first ply strength of the excited structure due to acoustic loading, and acoustic fatigue resistance of the excited structure, including the propulsion environment. Effects of the laminate lay-up and environment on the acoustic fatigue life are evaluated. The results show that, by keeping the angled plies on the outer surface of the laminate, a substantial increase in the acoustic fatigue life is obtained. The effect of environment (temperature and moisture) is to relieve the residual stresses leading to an increase in the acoustic fatigue life of the excited panel.

Singhal, Surendra N.↗

Contesting with the Ganges Water Machine in South Asia: Theory versus Reality

Recently, there has been much interest in how to manage the water resources of the Ganges River Basin (GRB), the cradle of Asian civilization, currently supporting >500 million people. This also includes cleaning up the Ganges river, regarded as one of the most polluted mega-rivers of the world. Historically, the transboundary Ganges river and its tributaries, flowing through India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, have become extensively polluted and disrupted, mostly because of river engineering and increased discharge of industrial and urban waste. Compounding the problem, in the past few decades, intense groundwater abstraction from the GRB aquifers has led to unprecedented groundwater level depletion in some locations. At present, the GRB groundwater levels are strongly influenced by depth-dependent abstraction, which is predicted to intensify in the future, given the increasing water demand. Thus, with impending climate change, designing the coupled river water–groundwater management necessary to meet the goal for sustainable access to clean water for a huge population, has become an arduous challenge.

Aquifers↗

Modeling Spacecraft Power Systems Using the SPACE Code

The NASA Glenn Research Center’s Power Architecture and Analysis Branch performs spacecraft electrical power system (EPS) performance analysis using the System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE) model. Accurately predicting EPS performance requires a wide range of inputs, including the spacecraft’s position, attitude, solar array temperature, load demand, and data on the EPS itself. By operating as a combined analysis tool with integrated orbit mechanics, attitude, shadowing, thermal, solar array, battery, and electrical component models, SPACE provides flexibility for the analyst to examine various scenarios without a time-consuming iterative process involving separate analysis tools and groups. SPACE also achieves short run times by tailoring the complexity of the included models, providing enough fidelity to ensure accurate EPS performance predictions without being bogged down by unnecessary detail. These advantages that SPACE has over similar power system models has contributed to its successful use on a variety of human spaceflight programs for over three decades, and makes it applicable across the development cycle from early conceptual design up through on-orbit operations.

Electrical Power System↗

Computation of turbulent flows over backward and forward-facing steps using a near-wall Reynolds stress model

Separation and reattachment of turbulent shear layers is observed in many important engineering applications, yet it is poorly understood. This has motivated many studies on understanding and predicting the processes of separation and reattachment of turbulent shear layers. Both of the situations in which separation is induced by adverse pressure gradient, or by discontinuities of geometry, have attracted attention of turbulence model developers. Formulation of turbulence closure models to describe the essential features of separated turbulent flows accurately is still a formidable task. Computations of separated flows associated with sharp-edged bluff bodies are described. For the past two decades, the backward-facing step flow, the simplest separated flow, has been a popular test case for turbulence models. Detailed studies on the performance of many turbulence models, including two equation turbulence models and Reynolds stress models, for flows over steps can be found in the papers by Thangam & Speziale and Lasher & Taulbee). These studies indicate that almost all the existing turbulence models fail to accurately predict many important features of back step flow such as reattachment length, recovery rate of the redeveloping boundary layers downstream of the reattachment point, streamlines near the reattachment point, and the skin friction coefficient. The main objectives are to calculate flows over backward and forward-facing steps using the NRSM and to make use of the newest DNS data for detailed comparison. This will give insights for possible improvements of the turbulence model.

Ko, Sung HO↗

Theoretical Technology Research for ISTP/SOLARMAX

During the last decade, we have been developing theoretical tools to support the scientific objectives of the International Solar Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) program. Results from our mission-oriented theory program have contributed significantly to the development of predictive capabilities by using real upstream solar wind conditions as input to our models and forecasting events observed downstream near Earth. We also developed the capability to unravel the complex information contained in ion velocity distribution functions measured near the Earth to determine their origin and energization process. During solar maximum, solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) dominate the sun's activity. It is now widely accepted that the impact of CMEs (or magnetic clouds) with the Earth's magnetosphere is the cause of most magnetic storms during solar maximum. One important aspect of a CME is the occurrence of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. During these events, protons, electrons, and heavy ions of solar origin are accelerated to very high energies by shock waves driven out from the sun. We carried out a series of large-scale kinetic (LSK) simulations to model the effect of SEPs on the near-Earth environment and the accessibility of these high-energy particles to the inner magnetosphere. We present the results of these studies.

Ashour-Abdalla, Maha↗

Impact Studies of a 2 C Global Warming on the Arctic Sea Ice Cover

The possible impact of an increase in global temperatures of about 2 C, as may be caused by a doubling of atmospheric CO2, is studied using historical satellite records of surface temperatures and sea ice from late 1970s to 2003. Updated satellite data indicate that the perennial ice continued to decline at an even faster rate of 9.2 % per decade than previously reported while concurrently, the surface temperatures have steadily been going up in most places except for some parts of northern Russia. Surface temperature is shown to be highly correlated with sea ice concentration in the seasonal sea ice regions. Results of regression analysis indicates that for every 1 C increase in temperature, the perennial ice area decreases by about 1.48 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers with the correlation coefficient being significant but only -0.57. Arctic warming is estimated to be about 0.46 C per decade on average in the Arctic but is shown to be off center with respect to the North Pole, and is prominent mainly in the Western Arctic and North America. The length of melt has been increasing by 13 days per decade over sea ice covered areas suggesting a thinning in the ice cover. The length of melt also increased by 5 days per decade over Greenland, 7 days per decade over the permafrost areas of North America but practically no change in Eurasia. Statistically derived projections indicate that the perennial sea ice cover would decline considerably in 2025, 2035, and 2060 when temperatures are predicted by models to reach the 2 C global increase.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

Online Assessment of Satellite-Derived Global Precipitation Products

Precipitation is difficult to measure and predict. Each year droughts and floods cause severe property damages and human casualties around the world. Accurate measurement and forecast are important for mitigation and preparedness efforts. Significant progress has been made over the past decade in satellite precipitation product development. In particular, products' spatial and temporal resolutions as well as timely availability have been improved by blended techniques. Their resulting products are widely used in various research and applications. However biases and uncertainties are common among precipitation products and an obstacle exists in quickly gaining knowledge of product quality, biases and behavior at a local or regional scale, namely user defined areas or points of interest. Current online inter-comparison and validation services have not addressed this issue adequately. To address this issue, we have developed a prototype to inter-compare satellite derived daily products in the TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System (TOVAS). Despite its limited functionality and datasets, users can use this tool to generate customized plots within the United States for 2005. In addition, users can download customized data for further analysis, e.g. comparing their gauge data. To meet increasing demands, we plan to increase the temporal coverage and expanded the spatial coverage from the United States to the globe. More products have been added as well. In this poster, we present two new tools: Inter-comparison of 3B42RT and 3B42 Inter-comparison of V6 and V7 TRMM L-3 monthly products The future plans include integrating IPWG (International Precipitation Working Group) Validation Algorithms/statistics, allowing users to generate customized plots and data. In addition, we will expand the current daily products to monthly and their climatology products. Whenever the TRMM science team changes their product version number, users would like to know the differences by inter-comparing both versions of TRMM products in their areas of interest. Making this service available to users will help them to better understand associated changes. We plan to implement this inter-comparison in TRMM standard monthly products with the IPWG algorithms. The plans outlined above will complement and accelerate the existing and ongoing validation activities in the community as well as enhance data services for TRMM and the future Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).

Liu, Zhong↗

Co-leveraging Scientific Advances in Space Biology and Astrobiology Towards Achieving NASA’s Life Science Objectives

Executive Summary: Distinct lines of scientific inquiry drives the separation of NASA’s fundamental life science research into Space Biology and Astrobiology. This division developed as a way to place life scientists alongside experts in the physical constraints that define the acclimation, adaptation and evolution of biology systems relevant to their respective subjects. For astrobiology, integration with disciplines such as geology, geochemistry, astronomy, planetary science, etc., enables a comprehensive assessment of the physical environment and its co-evolution with biological processes. Space Biology’s co-location with Physical Sciences places life science researchers adjacent to experts in the physical phenomena associated with microgravity and spaceflight, enabling an understanding of how the spaceflight environment affects biological systems. Despite this separation, aspects of both disciplines have converged on a similar, fundamental objective: to describe and understand the dynamics of complex living communities in the contexts of their physical environments. While the environmental systems and timescales are dramatically different, continuing to motivate the separation into distinct fields, similarities in the underlying objective present opportunities to find efficiencies, reduce overlap, and minimize duplication of effort. Space Biology and Astrobiology share a common need to understand microbial physiology in extreme environments – whether the ‘built’ spaceflight environment or the natural environments in which many astrobiology studies are conducted. In particular, open questions in each discipline require the development of quantitative frameworks, applicable at the ecosystem level, that support predictive capabilities for environments where observations are sparse. Additionally, both disciplines have a need to prepare, detect, and analyze the (potential) biological signal in complex samples-often in a completely autonomous fashion. The next decade will see NASA Space Biology moving to understand and describe the effects of the beyond low-earth orbit (BLEO) spaceflight environment on living systems. This new direction will dramatically reduce the opportunities for ground-based analysis of space-flown samples, driving space biology investigations towards fully autonomous experiments and missions. At the same time, astrobiology life detection missions aimed at detecting biosignatures on Mars and icy moons in the outer solar system could benefit from fully automated sample processing and analysis. There are opportunities to leverage instrument and method development between both disciplines within the context of these BLEO missions.

Astrobiology↗

On the Cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl

The 1930s was characterized by a decade of rainfall deficits and high temperatures that desiccated much of the United States Great Plains. Numerous dust storms created one of the most severe environmental catastrophes in U.S. history and led to the popular characterization of much of the southern Great Plains as the Dust Bowl . In this study, we show that the origin of the drought was in the anomalous tropical sea surface temperatures that occurred during that decade. We further show that interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface were essential to the development of the severe drought conditions. The results are based on simulations with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project general circulation model forced with observed and idealized sea surface temperatures. We contrast the 1930s drought with other major droughts of the 20th century, and speculate on the possibility of another Dust Bowl developing in the foreseeable future.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

Implementation of the Land, Atmosphere Near Real-Time Capability for EOS (LANCE)

The past decade has seen a rapid increase in availability and usage of near real-time data from satellite sensors. Applications have demonstrated the utility of timely data in a number of areas ranging from numerical weather prediction and forecasting, to monitoring of natural hazards, disaster relief, agriculture and homeland security. As applications mature, the need to transition from prototypes to operational capabilities presents an opportunity to improve current near real-time systems and inform future capabilities. This paper presents NASA s effort to implement a near real-time capability for land and atmosphere data acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) instruments on the Terra, Aqua, and Aura satellites. Index Terms- Real time systems, Satellite applications

Michael, Karen↗

Prediction and rational correlation of thermophoretically reduced particle mass transfer to hot surfaces across laminar or turbulent forced-convection gas boundary layers

A formulation previously developed to predict and correlate the thermophoretically-augmented submicron particle mass transfer rate to cold surfaces is found to account for the thermophoretically reduced particle mass transfer rate to overheated surfaces such that thermophoresis brings about a 10-decade reduction below the convective mass transfer rate expected by pure Brownian diffusion and convection alone. Thermophoretic blowing is shown to produce effects on particle concentration boundary-layer (BL) structure and wall mass transfer rates similar to those produced by real blowing through a porous wall. The applicability of the correlations to developing BL-situations is demonstrated by a numerical example relevant to wet-steam technology.

Gokoglu, Suleyman A.↗

NASA small civil airplane research

NASA-Langley's ongoing research programs on behalf of performance, safety, and utility enhancements for small civil aircraft have over the last decade introduced important advancements in natural laminar flow inducement and stall/spin recovery and prevention. The achievability and maintainability of natural laminar flow has led to performance improvements of as much as 25 percent. Recent research has improved predictive techniques for aircraft stall/spin characteristics, and also led to the development of a wing leading edge design for enhanced spin resistance.

Stough, H. Paul, III↗

JET Noise Prediction

Aerodynamic noise prediction has been an important and challenging research area since James Lighthill first introduced his Acoustic Analogy Approach over fifty years ago. This talk attempts to provide a unified framework for the subsequent theoretical developments in this field. It assumes that there is no single approach that is optimal in all situations and uses the framework as a basis for discussing the strengths weaknesses of the various approaches to this topic. But the emphasis here will be on the important problem of predicting the noise from high speed air jets. Specific results will presented for round jets in the 0.5 to 1.4 Mach number range and compared with experimental data taken on the Glenn SHAR rig. It is demonstrated that non-parallel mean flow effects play an important role in predicting the noise at the supersonic Mach numbers. The results explain the failure of previous attempts based on the parallel flow Lilley model (which has served as the foundation for most jet noise analyses during past two decades).

Goldstein, M. E.↗

The Aeroacoustics of Turbulent Flows

Aerodynamic noise prediction has been an important and challenging research area since James Lighthill first introduced his Acoustic Analogy Approach over fifty years ago. This talk attempts to provide a unified framework for the subsequent theoretical developments in this field. It assumes that there is no single approach that is optimal in all situations and uses the framework as a basis for discussing the strengths weaknesses of the various approaches to this topic. But the emphasis here will be on the important problem of predicting the noise from high speed air jets. Specific results will presented for round jets in the 0.5 to 1.4 Mach number range and compared with experimental data taken on the Glenn SHAR rig. It is demonstrated that nonparallel mean flow effects play an important role in predicting the noise at the supersonic Mach numbers. The results explain the failure of previous attempts based on the parallel flow Lilley model (which has served as the foundation for most jet noise analyses during past two decades).

Goldstein, M. E.↗