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At least 379 records · Page 21

Microwave power transmission system studies. Volume 2: Introduction, organization, environmental and spaceborne systems analyses

Introduction, organization, analyses, conclusions, and recommendations for each of the spaceborne subsystems are presented. Environmental effects - propagation analyses are presented with appendices covering radio wave diffraction by random ionospheric irregularities, self-focusing plasma instabilities and ohmic heating of the D-region. Analyses of dc to rf conversion subsystems and system considerations for both the amplitron and the klystron are included with appendices for the klystron covering cavity circuit calculations, output power of the solenoid-focused klystron, thermal control system, and confined flow focusing of a relativistic beam. The photovoltaic power source characteristics are discussed as they apply to interfacing with the power distribution flow paths, magnetic field interaction, dc to rf converter protection, power distribution including estimates for the power budget, weights, and costs. Analyses for the transmitting antenna consider the aperture illumination and size, with associated efficiencies and ground power distributions. Analyses of subarray types and dimensions, attitude error, flatness, phase error, subarray layout, frequency tolerance, attenuation, waveguide dimensional tolerances, mechanical including thermal considerations are included. Implications associated with transportation, assembly and packaging, attitude control and alignment are discussed. The phase front control subsystem, including both ground based pilot signal driven adaptive and ground command approaches with their associated phase errors, are analyzed.

Maynard, O. E.↗

Probing thick vegetation canopies with a field microwave scatterometer

with a narrow-beam field microwave scatterometer having a variable slant range and a small slant-range resolution, investigators can estimate the distribution of backscattering sources in a medium as a function of slant range. From this, they can calculate the backscattering coefficient. With less confidence, they can estimate the volume extinction coefficient, the volume density of backscattering cross sections, the transmittance, and the backscattering coefficient of a semiinfinite medium with the same volumetric microwave properties. These parameters allow one to understand the interactions of microwaves with media such as vegetation canopies with their substrates.

Paris, J. F.↗

Characteristics of the Dust-Plasma Interaction Near Enceladus' South Pole

We present RPWS Langmuir probe data from the third Enceladus flyby (E3) showing (he presence of dusty plasma near Enceladus' South Pole. There is a sharp rise in both the electron and ion number densities when the spacecraft traverses through Enceladus plume. The ion density near Enceladus is found to increase abruptly from about 10(exp 2) cm (exp -3) before the closest approach to 10(exp 5) cm (exp -3) just 30 s after the closest approach, an amount two orders of magnitude higher than the electron density. Assuming that the inconsistency between the electron and ion number densities is due to the presence of dust particles that are collecting the missing electron charges, we present dusty plasma characteristics down to sub-micron particle sizes. By assuming a differential dust number density for a range in dust sizes and by making use of Langmuir probe data, the dust densities for certain lower limits in dust size distribution were estimated. In order to achieve the dust densities of micrometer and larger sized grains comparable to the ones reported in the literature. we show that the power law size distribution must hold down to at least 0.03 micron such that the total differential number density is dominated by the smallest sub-micron sized grains. The total dust number density in Enceladus' plume is of the order of l0(exp 2) cm(exp -3) reducing to 1 cm(exp -3) in the E- ring. The dust density for micrometer and larger sized grains is estimated to be about 10(exp -4) cm(exp -3) in the plume while it is about 10(exp -6) - 10(exp -7) cm(exp -3) in the E-ring. Dust charge for micron sized grains is estimated to be about eight thousand electron charges reducing to below one hundred electron charges for 0.03 micron sized grains. The effective dusty plasma Debye length is estimated and compared with intergrain distance as well as the electron Debye length. The maximum dust charging time of 1.4 h is found for 0.03 11mmicron sized grains just 1 min before the closest approach. The charging time decreases substantially in the plume where it is only a fraction of a second for 1 micron sized grains, 1 s for 0.l micron sized grains and about 10 s for 0.03 micron sized grains.

Shafiq, Muhammad↗

Statistical distribution of time to crack initiation and initial crack size using service data

Crack growth inspection data gathered during the service life of the C-130 Hercules airplane were used in conjunction with a crack propagation rule to estimate the distribution of crack initiation times and of initial crack sizes. A Bayesian statistical approach was used to calculate the fraction of undetected initiation times as a function of the inspection time and the reliability of the inspection procedure used.

Heller, R. A.↗

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Signature estimation from satellite multispectral scanner data

A method for estimating signatures from satellite multispectral scanner data for areas containing mixtures of specified object classes is presented and evaluated. Each signature is assumed to be a Gaussian distribution. The estimation procedure is simple, and the estimates represent maximum likelihood estimates. Formulae to compute variances for an estimated signature are also given.

Crane, R. B.↗

The redshift and optical structure of the X-ray galaxy cluster A478

Observational results are reported concerning the optical properties of the X-ray cluster of galaxies A478. A cluster redshift of 0.09 is determined, which implies a cluster X-ray luminosity of 10 to the 45th power erg/s over the energy range from 2 to 6 keV. The cluster is classified as type cD, the center of the cluster is found to be consistent with the position of the cD galaxy, and it is shown that the surface distribution of the galaxies in the cluster is well described by a bounded isothermal gas-sphere model. The core radius of the galaxy distribution is estimated to be about 1.5 arcmin, corresponding to approximately 0.20 Mpc for a Hubble constant of 50 km/s per Mpc. It is noted that the observed galaxy distribution is somewhat asymmetric, being elongated along the NE-SW direction.

Bahcall, N. A.↗

Expected Collision Rates for Tracked Satellites

This analysis estimates collision risks between tracked satellites based on the statistically expected collision rate _Nc and number of collisions Nc, which are closely related to the collision probability Pc. For isolated encounters, Nc equals Pc. For multi-encounter interactions, Nc can exceed Pc and is significantly easier to approximate semi-analytically. Estimating Nc requires integrating the collision rate over time throughout an interaction, with each required _Nc value calculated as a statistical expectation value based on the uncertainty distributions of initial orbital states. The uncertainty distributions are estimated from orbit determination analyses of satellite trajectory measurements. The formulation accounts for the nonlinear orbital motion of the satellites, and derives Nc and _Nc expressions for Monte Carlo simulations as well as semi-analytical approximations for single- and multi-encounter interactions.

Collision Rates↗

Developing an Aircraft-Based Angular Distribution Model of Solar Reflection from Wildfire Smoke to Aid Satellite-Based Radiative Flux Estimation

This study examines the angular distribution of scattered solar radiation associated with wildfire smoke aerosols observed over boreal forests in Canada during the ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) campaign. First, it estimates smoke radiative parameters (550 nm optical depth of 3.9 and single scattering albedo of 0.90) using quasi-simultaneous multiangular and multispectral airborne measurements by the Cloud Absorption Radiometer (CAR). Next, the paper estimates the broadband top-of-atmosphere radiances that a satellite instrument such as the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) could have observed, given the narrowband CAR measurements made from an aircraft circling about a kilometer above the smoke layer. This estimation includes both an atmospheric correction that accounts for the atmosphere above the aircraft and a narrowband-to-broadband conversion. The angular distribution of estimated radiances is found to be substantially different than the angular model used in the operational data processing of CERES observations over the same area. This is because the CERES model is a monthly average model that was constructed using observations taken under smoke-free conditions. Finally, a sensitivity analysis shows that the estimated angular distribution remains accurate for a fairly wide range of smoke and underlying surface parameters. Overall, results from this work suggest that airborne CAR measurements can bring some substantial improvements in the accuracy of satellite-based radiative flux estimates.

Varnai, Tamas↗

Multi-modal Free-moving Data Fusion (MFDF) v1.0

Multi-modal Free-moving Data Fusion (MFDF) is a python package that implements low and high-level functionality for performing qualitative and quantitative gamma-ray imaging analyses. Such analyses enable the use of gamma-ray spectrometers and/or imagers to estimate the distribution and quantity of radiological materials in an environment. Free-moving 3D imaging requires additional information about the 3D trajectory and orientation of the system, however all of these methods can be applied to 2D static gamma-ray imaging as well. The package includes methods (MLEM and MAP) for distributed source reconstruction, methods (PSL) for point source reconstruction, the ability to ingest and utilize quantitative detector response functions (for absolute analyses), and the ability to perform 3D estimation of dose-rates from quantitative reconstructions.

Joshi, Tenzing↗

Distribution of Snow and Maximum Snow Water Equivalent Obtained by LANDSAT Data and Degree Day Method

Maximum snow water equivalence and snowcover distribution are estimated using several LANDSAT data taken in snowmelting season over a four year period. The test site is Okutadami-gawa Basin located in the central position of Tohoku-Kanto-Chubu District. The year to year normalization for snowmelt volume computation on the snow line is conducted by year to year correction of degree days using the snowcover percentage within the test basin obtained from LANDSAT data. The maximum snow water equivalent map in the test basin is generated based on the normalized snowmelt volume on the snow line extracted from four LANDSAT data taken in a different year. The snowcover distribution on an arbitrary day in snowmelting of 1982 is estimated from the maximum snow water equivalent map. The estimated snowcover is compared with the snowcover area extracted from NOAA-AVHRR data taken on the same day. The applicability of the snow estimation using LANDSAT data is discussed.

Takeda, K.↗

An Improved Analysis of Forest Carbon Dynamics using Data Assimilation

There are two broad approaches to quantifying landscape C dynamics - by measuring changes in C stocks over time, or by measuring fluxes of C directly. However, these data may be patchy, and have gaps or biases. An alternative approach to generating C budgets has been to use process-based models, constructed to simulate the key processes involved in C exchange. However, the process of model building is arguably subjective, and parameters may be poorly defined. This paper demonstrates why data assimilation (DA) techniques - which combine stock and flux observations with a dynamic model - improve estimates of, and provide insights into, ecosystem carbon (C) exchanges. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to link a series of measurements with a simple box model of C transformations. Measurements were collected at a young ponderosa pine stand in central Oregon over a 3-year period, and include eddy flux and soil C02 efflux data, litterfall collections, stem surveys, root and soil cores, and leaf area index data. The simple C model is a mass balance model with nine unknown parameters, tracking changes in C storage among five pools; foliar, wood and fine root pools in vegetation, and also fresh litter and soil organic matter (SOM) plus coarse woody debris pools. We nested the EnKF within an optimization routine to generate estimates from the data of the unknown parameters and the five initial conditions for the pools. The efficacy of the DA process can be judged by comparing the probability distributions of estimates produced with the EnKF analysis vs. those produced with reduced data or model alone. Using the model alone, estimated net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE)= -251 f 197g Cm-2 over the 3 years, compared with an estimate of -419 f 29gCm-2 when all observations were assimilated into the model. The uncertainty on daily measurements of NEE via eddy fluxes was estimated at 0.5gCm-2 day-1, but the uncertainty on assimilated estimates averaged 0.47 g Cm-2 day-1, and only exceeded 0.5gC m-2 day-1 on days where neither eddy flux nor soil efflux data were available. In generating C budgets, the assimilation process reduced the uncertainties associated with using data or model alone and the forecasts of NEE were statistically unbiased estimates. The results of the analysis emphasize the importance of time series as constraints. Occasional, rare measurements of stocks have limited use in constraining the estimates of other components of the C cycle. Long time series are particularly crucial for improving the analysis of pools with long time constants, such as SOM, woody biomass, and woody debris. Long-running forest stem surveys, and tree ring data, offer a rich resource that could be assimilated to provide an important constraint on C cycling of slow pools. For extending estimates of NEE across regions, DA can play a further important role, by assimilating remote-sensing data into the analysis of C cycles. We show, via sensitivity analysis, how assimilating an estimate of photosynthesis - which might be provided indirectly by remotely sensed data - improves the analysis of NEE.

Williams, Mathew↗

LL18-Signal Analysis-NDD2Ad (Final Report)

Under favorable circumstances, seismic waveforms corresponding to an ensemble of events related by a common, spatially-distributed process collectively exhibit a regular, signal-space geometry. When events in the ensemble have a common, or nearly common, source mechanism, this geometry is a distorted image of the distribution of events in the source region. The signal space image can be visualized using a relatively simple waveform alignment and projection operation. Ensemble waveform correlation measurements can be inverted to estimate the distribution of the events in the source region, up to an arbitrary rotation, reflection, and scaling with residual distortion. We demonstrate these concepts with synthetic waveforms and with observations of long-wall mining induced seismicity for which substantial ground truth information is available. Our experience with these data has implications for location, correlation detection and machine learning, and possible application to studies of repeating events in induced, volcanic, and glacial seismicity. Our results place limits on the widely-held assumption that waveform correlation is a useful measure of event separation. We suggest that the constraints on event separation need to be evaluated in the context of a population of related events, whose waveforms sample the signal space image of the source region. A better indicator of event separation is the length of the shortest path in signal space along the image.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantification of Thermal Oxidation in Metallic Glass Powder using Ultra-small Angle X-ray Scattering

In this paper, the composition, structure, morphology and kinetics of evolution during isothermal oxidation of Fe 48 Cr 15 Mo 14 Y 2 C 15 B 6 metallic glass powder in the supercooled region are investigated by an integrated ex-situ and in-situ characterization and modelling approach. Raman and X-ray diffraction spectra established that oxidation yielded a hierarchical structure across decreasing length scales. At larger scale, Fe 2 O 3 grows as a uniform shell over the powder core. This shell, at smaller scale, consists of multiple grains. Ultra-small angle X-ray scattering intensity acquired during isothermal oxidation of the powder over a wide Q-range delineated direct quantification of oxidation behavior. The hierarchical structure was employed to construct a scattering model that was fitted to the measured intensity distributions to estimate the thickness of the oxide shell. The relative gain in mass during oxidation, computed theoretically from this model, relatively underestimated that measured in practice by a thermogravimetric analyzer due to the distribution in sizes of the particles. As a whole, this paper introduces the first direct quantification of oxidation in metallic glass powder by ultra-small angle X-ray scattering. It establishes novel experimental environments that can potentially unfold new paradigms of research into a wide spectrum of interfacial reactions in powder materials at elevated temperatures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The geometry of signal space: a case study of direct mapping between seismic signals and event distribution

SUMMARY Under favourable circumstances, seismic waveforms corresponding to an ensemble of events related by a common, spatially distributed process collectively exhibit a regular, signal-space geometry. When events in the ensemble have a common, or nearly common, source mechanism, this geometry is a distorted image of the distribution of events in the source region. The signal-space image can be visualized using a relatively simple waveform alignment and projection operation. Ensemble waveform correlation measurements can be inverted to estimate the distribution of the events in the source region, up to an arbitrary rotation, reflection and scaling, with residual distortion. We demonstrate these concepts with synthetic waveforms and with observations of long-wall mining induced seismicity for which substantial ground truth information is available. Our experience with these data has implications for location, correlation detection and machine learning and possible application to studies of repeating events in induced, volcanic and glacial seismicity. Our results place limits on the widely held assumption that waveform correlation is a useful measure of event separation. We suggest that the constraints on event separation need to be evaluated in the context of a population of related events, whose waveforms sample the signal space image of the source region. A better indicator of event separation is the length of the shortest path in signal space along the image.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Alternative Vegetation States in Tropical Forests and Savannas: The Search for Consistent Signals in Diverse Remote Sensing Data

Globally, the spatial distribution of vegetation is governed primarily by climatological factors (rainfall and temperature, seasonality, and inter-annual variability). The local distribution of vegetation, however, depends on local edaphic conditions (soils and topography) and disturbances (fire, herbivory, and anthropogenic activities). Abrupt spatial or temporal changes in vegetation distribution can occur if there are positive (i.e., amplifying) feedbacks favoring certain vegetation states under otherwise similar climatic and edaphic conditions. Previous studies in the tropical savannas of Africa and other continents using the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation continuous fields (VCF) satellite data product have focused on discontinuities in the distribution of tree cover at different rainfall levels, with bimodal distributions (e.g., concentrations of high and low tree cover) interpreted as alternative vegetation states. Such observed bimodalities over large spatial extents may not be evidence for alternate states, as they may include regions that have different edaphic conditions and disturbance histories. In this study, we conduct a systematic multi-scale analysis of diverse MODIS data streams to quantify the presence and spatial consistency of alternative vegetation states in Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis is based on the premise that major discontinuities in vegetation structure should also manifest as consistent spatial patterns in a range of remote sensing data streams, including, for example, albedo and land surface temperature (LST). Our results confirm previous observations of bimodal and multimodal distributions of estimated tree cover in the MODIS VCF. However, strong disagreements in the location of multimodality between VCF and other data streams were observed at 1 km scale. Results suggest that the observed distribution of VCF over vast spatial extents are multimodal, not because of local-scale feedbacks and emergent bifurcations (the definition of alternative states), but likely because of other factors including regional scale differences in woody dynamics associated with edaphic, disturbance, and/or anthropogenic processes. These results suggest the need for more in-depth consideration of bifurcation mechanisms and thus the likely spatial and temporal scales at which alternative states driven by different positive feedback processes should manifest.

Savanna↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: redshift calibration of the MagLim lens sample from the combination of SOMPZ and clustering and its impact on cosmology

ABSTRACT We present an alternative calibration of the MagLim lens sample redshift distributions from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) first 3 yr of data (Y3). The new calibration is based on a combination of a self-organizing-map-based scheme and clustering redshifts to estimate redshift distributions and inherent uncertainties, which is expected to be more accurate than the original DES Y3 redshift calibration of the lens sample. We describe in detail the methodology, and validate it on simulations and discuss the main effects dominating our error budget. The new calibration is in fair agreement with the fiducial DES Y3 n(z) calibration, with only mild differences (<3σ) in the means and widths of the distributions. We study the impact of this new calibration on cosmological constraints, analysing DES Y3 galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing measurements, assuming a Lambda cold dark matter cosmology. We obtain Ωm = 0.30 ± 0.04, σ8 = 0.81 ± 0.07, and S8 = 0.81 ± 0.04, which implies a ∼0.4σ shift in the Ω − S8 plane compared to the fiducial DES Y3 results, highlighting the importance of the redshift calibration of the lens sample in multiprobe cosmological analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗