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At least 379 records · Page 21

Equation‐Free Surrogate Modeling of Geophysical Flows at the Intersection of Machine Learning and Data Assimilation

Abstract There is a growing interest in developing data‐driven reduced‐order models for atmospheric and oceanic flows that are trained on data obtained either from high‐resolution simulations or satellite observations. The data‐driven models are non‐intrusive in nature and offer significant computational savings compared to large‐scale numerical models. These low‐dimensional models can be utilized to reduce the computational burden of generating forecasts and estimating model uncertainty without losing the key information needed for data assimilation (DA) to produce accurate state estimates. This paper aims at exploring an equation‐free surrogate modeling approach at the intersection of machine learning and DA in Earth system modeling. With this objective, we introduce an end‐to‐end non‐intrusive reduced‐order modeling (NIROM) framework equipped with contributions in modal decomposition, time series prediction, optimal sensor placement, and sequential DA. Specifically, we use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to identify the dominant structures of the flow, and a long short‐term memory network to model the dynamics of the POD modes. The NIROM is integrated within the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) to incorporate sparse and noisy observations at optimal sensor locations obtained through QR pivoting. The feasibility and the benefit of the proposed framework are demonstrated for the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) V2 data set. Our results indicate that the NIROM is stable for long‐term forecasting and can model dynamics of SST with a reasonable level of accuracy. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of the NIROM gets improved by almost one order of magnitude by the DEnKF algorithm.

Pawar, Suraj↗

Molecular simulation of liquid–vapor coexistence for NaCl: Full-charge vs scaled-charge interaction models

Scaled-charge models have been recently introduced for molecular simulations of electrolyte solutions and molten salts to attempt to implicitly represent polarizability. Although these models have been found to accurately predict electrolyte solution dynamic properties, they have not been tested for coexistence properties, such as the vapor pressure of the melt. In this work, we evaluate the vapor pressure of a scaled-charge sodium chloride (NaCl) force field and compare the results against experiments and a non-polarizable full-charge force field. The scaled-charge force field predicts a higher vapor pressure than found in experiments, due to its overprediction of the liquid-phase chemical potential. Reanalyzing the trajectories generated from the scaled-charge model with full charges improves the estimation of the liquid-phase chemical potential but not the vapor pressure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Enhancing quantum clocks and sensors with randomization and decoherence

This letter shows how incoherent dynamics can lead to metrological advantages in quantum sensing. The results rely on the fact that incoherent dynamics lead to an additive contribution to the quantum Fisher information about time. Such an additive contribution can reduce the error of optimal estimation protocols, as implied by the quantum Cramér–Rao bound. I characterize regimes in which the estimation of a time interval or a frequency is enhanced by decoherence, thereby identifying cases in which incoherent dynamics serve as a metrological resource. The decoherence processes that yield enhanced precision of quantum sensors can be engineered by randomized Hamiltonian dynamics. I illustrate the results with protocols that display improved sensing of time intervals or global fields by qubit and photonic sensors. Enhanced precision of time intervals is achieved with Hamiltonians that include randomized global parameters. Enhanced precision in field estimation is obtained by randomized sensing times.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Preparations for quantum simulations of quantum chromodynamics in 1+1 dimensions. I. Axial gauge

Here, tools necessary for quantum simulations of 1+1 dimensional quantum chromodynamics are developed. When formulated in axial gauge and with two flavors of quarks, this system requires 12 qubits per spatial site with the gauge fields included via nonlocal interactions. Classical computations and D-wave’s quantum annealer advantage are used to determine the hadronic spectrum, enabling a decomposition of the masses and a study of quark entanglement. Color “edge” states confined within a screening length of the end of the lattice are found. IBM’s seven-qubit quantum computers, ibmq_jakarta and ibm_perth, are used to compute dynamics from the trivial vacuum in one-flavor QCD with one spatial site. More generally, the Hamiltonian and quantum circuits for time evolution of 1+1 dimensional SU(N c ) gauge theory with Nf flavors of quarks are developed, and the resource requirements for large-scale quantum simulations are estimated.

1+1 dimensions↗

Spectra of magnetic fields from electroweak symmetry breaking

We characterize magnetic fields produced during electroweak symmetry breaking by nondynamical numerical simulations based on the Kibble mechanism. The generated magnetic fields were thought to have an energy spectrum ∝ k3 for small wave numbers k, but here we show that it is actually a spectrum ∝ k4 along with characteristic fluctuations in the magnetic helicity. Using scaling results from magnetohydro- dynamics simulations for the evolution and assuming that the initial magnetic field is coherent on the electroweak Hubble scale, we estimate the magnetic field strength to be ∼10−13 G on kpc scales at the present epoch for nonhelical fields. For maximally helical fields we obtain ∼10−10 G on Mpc scales. We also give scalings of these estimates for partially helical fields.

Vachaspati, Tanmay [Arizona State University]↗

Investigations of nonlinear polarization transfer between obliquely intersecting beams

Electromagnetic waves propagating through plasma can interact nonlinearly through a variety of different mechanisms. The excitation of a plasma beat wave (ions or electrons) can create a refractive index modulation that changes the dispersion of the interacting beams. Alternatively, high-intensity beams can enter the regime where relativistic nonlinearities influence the propagation dynamics. In recent studies [ Opt. Express 29 , 1162 ( 2021 ) OPEXFF 1094-4087 10.1364/OE.413064 ], it was proposed that two beams propagating along the same axis can exchange their polarization state due to nonlinear interaction. Here we present a numerical analysis of two laser beams intersecting in a nonlinear medium at varying angles. Polarization transfer is observed as predicted by analytical theory for a range of angles. For small angles, it is found that filamentation of the interacting beams becomes important. Analytical estimates of the filamentation threshold are presented, and good agreement is found with the simulation data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Report on High-Fidelity Dynamic Modeling of a Coal-Fired Steam Power Plant

As a result of the growth of renewables including solar and wind energy with fluctuating production, fossil fuel power plants are being required to cycle between high and low power production. This cycling is both at a greater frequency and over a wider range than in the past. In many cases, power plants are not designed for this type of cycling operation but can nonetheless endure these challenging operation requirements under the right conditions. In this project, optimal solution for enhanced flexible operations are being investigated using model based estimation and control techniques. To support the development of model-based estimator and model-based controls at GE Global Research, GE Steam Power configured a dynamic model using a reference steam plant design including the boiler, turbine, and water/steam conditioning systems as well as the controls needed for plant cycling with stability and reliability. The dynamic model was built using the APROS® software from VTT, and then calibrated to multiple load conditions from full load (100%TMCR) to partial loads (75%TMCR, 50%TMCR and 25%TMCR) based on internally developed steady state heat balance models at the unit level. These internal heat balance models are based on first principles and extensive engineering experiences from GE Steam Power as an OEM and a services provider. This topical report presents the structure of the unit level dynamic model, the tuning process, and representative simulation results from typical load cycling simulations using the dynamic model.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Deep glassy state dynamic data challenge glass models: Configurational entropy models

This work was the result of the student's (Dongjie Chen) qualifying exam response. In it the experimental observation from our labs that the relaxation times of ultrastable glasses (a 20 million year old amber and a vapor deposited amorphous teflon) do not follow the expected Vogel-Fulcher or WLF types of divergence as the temperatures fall below the glass transition temperature. In the work we evaluated several theories by considering them in different ways. We used them as generally used and show that they do not capture the non-diverging behavior. Because the models were all entropy-based models, we also considered the possibility that the temperature dependence of the entropy used in the models is incorrect and chose two ways of estimating the entropy that do not follow the classical theoretical models. First we used the actually measured calorimetric response for the two ultrastable glasses, and we used the Milchev model, which does not go to zero above 0 Kelvin. Both of these approaches led to improved agreement between the theories and the experimental data. Finally, we also asked what the temperature dependence of the entropy would have to be so that the models agreed with the observed data. In some cases the entropy so-calculated was reasonable, while in others it was unphysical. In sum, the important point of the work is that the observation of non-diverging time-scales that suggest that there is no ideal glass transition can be reasonably captured by current theories if they take more realistic models of the entropy than is usually the case.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Structure, stability, and superconductivity of N-doped lutetium hydrides at kbar pressures

Here, the structure of the material responsible for the room temperature and near ambient pressure superconductivity reported in an N-doped lutetium hydride has not been conclusively determined. Herein, density functional theory calculations are performed in an attempt to uncover what it might be. Guided by a range of strategies including crystal structure prediction and modifications of existing structure types, we present an array of Lu-N-H phases that are dynamically stable at experimentally relevant pressures. Although none of the structures found are thermodynamically stable, and none are expected to remain superconducting above ~17 K at 10 kbar, a number of metallic compounds with fcc Lu lattices – as suggested by the experimental X-ray diffraction measurements of the majority phase – are identified. The system whose calculated equation of states matches best with that measured for the majority phase is fluorite-type LuH 2 , whose 10 kbar superconducting critical temperature was estimated to be 0.1 K using the Allen-Dynes modified McMillan equation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Data and scripts associated with “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” (v3)

This data package is associated with the publication “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (Butler et al. 2025). This study developed the Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) framework to tag input precipitation and estimate water transit times and hydrologic tracers. SPIT tags all precipitation events at regular intervals over an extended period (monthly tags over seven years) in a hydrologic model from 2016-2022. SPIT is applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites across the continental United States to calculate transit time distributions (TTD) and derive from these mean transit times (MTT), fractions of young water (Fyw), and hydrologic tracer concentrations in stream water (δ18O) within a water-tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast (WT-WRF-Hydro) model with national water model (NWM) configurations. We go on to validate WT-WRF-Hydro estimates against Butler et al. (2023), who analyzed the same NEON sites using stable water isotope data to estimate water transit times. This new tracking method provides a detailed picture of water movement and helps improve predictions about water availability in the future. This data package was originally published in January 2025. It was updated May 2025 (v2; new and modified files) and October 2025 (v3; new and modified files). File and folder names were not revised to indicate changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details. This data package contains the data and scripts used to develop the SPIT framework WT-WRF-Hydro (Water Tagging Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic) model and is associated with the following GitHub repository: https://github.com/zbutler33/SPIT-Framework. This data package contains five parent folders: (1) “Manipulated_outputs”, (2) “Metadata”, (3) “Observed”, (4) “Outputs”, and (5) “Scripts”. Each of these parent folders contains additional subfolders and files. Please see the FLMD (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_flmd.csv”) for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. See the data dictionary (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_dd.csv”) for definitions and units of all of the tabular (files ending in “.csv” and ".tsv") column headers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FunDiff: diffusion models over function spaces for physics-informed generative modeling

Recent advances in generative modeling-particularly diffusion models and flow matching-have been widely used for synthesizing discrete data such as images and videos. However, adapting these models to physical applications remains challenging, as the quantities of interest are continuous functions governed by complex physical laws. To address this, we introduce FunDiff, an efficient and robust framework for generative modeling in function spaces. FunDiff combines a latent diffusion process with a function autoencoder architecture to handle input functions with varying discretizations, generates continuous functions that can be evaluated at arbitrary locations, and seamlessly incorporate physical priors. These priors are enforced through architectural constraints or physics-informed loss functions, ensuring that generated samples satisfy fundamental physical laws. We theoretically establish minimax optimality guarantees for density estimation in function spaces, demonstrating that diffusion-based estimators achieve optimal convergence rates under suitable regularity conditions. We further demonstrate the practical effectiveness of FunDiff across diverse applications in fluid dynamics and solid mechanics. Empirical results indicate that our method can generate physically consistent samples with high fidelity to the target distribution, and exhibit robustness to noisy and low-resolution data.

Wang, Sifan [Yale University, New Haven, CT (Unite↗

Elastic scattering in the 12 N + 197 Au system at 𝐸 lab = 70 MeV

Halo structure is an interesting exotic configuration developed in some light weakly bound nuclei, where a valence particle orbits a nuclear core. Signatures of halo structure can be observed in the angular distributions of the elastic scattering induced by these nuclei at energies around the Coulomb barrier. There are some well-studied reactions with neutron-rich halo nuclei, such as 6 He and 11 Li . However, the information is scarce on the proton-rich side. Recent works confirm the halo structure in the 8B nuclei but still lack more experimental studies for other proton-halo candidates, such as 12 N and 17 F. In this work, we report experimental data for the elastic scattering of 12 N on 197 Au target at 𝐸 lab = 70 MeV. The 12 N is a proton-rich nucleus with proton separation energy 𝑆 𝑝 = 600 keV, which is higher than the 8 B (𝑆 𝑝 = 137 keV) and almost the same as the 17 F (𝑆 𝑝 = 601 keV). Data were obtained at the Cyclotron Institute of Texas A&M University where the 12 N radioactive beam was produced by the momentum achromatic recoil spectrometer. The calculation of the optical model was used to fit the measured angular distribution for the elastic scattering and to obtain the reaction cross section 𝜎 𝑅 . We also performed continuum discretized coupled-channel calculations to compare with the experimental data. The angular distribution of the elastic cross sections exhibits a suppression of the Fresnel peak. From the fitting of the optical model, we obtain the total reaction cross section, 𝜎 𝑅 = 1269 ± 41 mb. The agreement between the CDCC calculation and the experimental elastic scattering data is limited and the breakdown does not exhaust the measured 𝜎 𝑅 . The resulting reduced reaction cross section 𝜎 Red for 12 N + 197 Au is large and comparable to the one obtained for the 8 B + 208 Pb system. This suggests a strong decoupling of the valence proton from the core because of the low binding energy and a dynamic polarization effect. Here, more research is required to estimate the contribution of core excitation.

Elastic scattering reactions↗

Adding Tree Rings to North America's National Forest Inventories: An Essential Tool to Guide Drawdown of Atmospheric CO 2

Tree-ring time series provide long-term, annually resolved information on the growth of trees. When sampled in a systematic context, tree-ring data can be scaled to estimate the forest carbon capture and storage of landscapes, biomes, and—ultimately—the globe. A systematic effort to sample tree rings in national forest inventories would yield unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution of forest carbon dynamics and help resolve key scientific uncertainties, which we highlight in terms of evidence for forest greening (enhanced growth) versus browning (reduced growth, increased mortality). We describe jump-starting a tree-ring collection across the continent of North America, given the commitments of Canada, the United States, and Mexico to visit forest inventory plots, along with existing legacy collections. Failing to do so would be a missed opportunity to help chart an evidence-based path toward meeting national commitments to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions, urgently needed for climate stabilization and repair.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

QCD Constraints on Isospin-Dense Matter and the Nuclear Equation of State

Understanding the behavior of dense hadronic matter is a central goal in nuclear physics as it governs the nature and dynamics of astrophysical objects such as supernovae and neutron stars. Because of the nonperturbative nature of quantum chromodynamics (QCD), little is known rigorously about hadronic matter in these extreme conditions. Here, lattice QCD calculations are used to compute thermodynamic quantities and the equation of state of QCD over a wide range of isospin chemical potentials with controlled systematic uncertainties. Agreement is seen with chiral perturbation theory when the chemical potential is small. Comparison to perturbative QCD at large chemical potential allows for an estimate of the gap in the superconducting phase, and this quantity is seen to agree with perturbative determinations. Since the partition function for an isospin chemical potential μ I bounds the partition function for a baryon chemical potential μ B = 3 μ I / 2 , these calculations also provide rigorous nonperturbative QCD bounds on the symmetric nuclear matter equation of state over a wide range of baryon densities for the first time. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability

Wind farm control strategies are being developed to mitigate wake losses in wind farms, increasing energy production. Wake steering is a type of wind farm control in which a wind turbine's yaw position is misaligned from the wind direction, causing its wake to deflect away from downstream turbines. Current modeling tools used to optimize and estimate energy gains from wake steering are designed to represent wakes for fixed wind directions. However, wake steering controllers must operate in dynamic wind conditions and a turbine's yaw position cannot perfectly track changing wind directions. Research has been conducted on robust wake steering control optimized for variable wind directions. In this paper, the design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability is presented for a two-turbine array using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented wake model. First, the authors propose a method for modeling the turbulent and low-frequency components of the wind direction, where the slowly varying wind direction serves as the relevant input to the wake model. Next, we explain a procedure for finding optimal yaw offsets for dynamic wind conditions considering both wind direction and yaw position uncertainty. We then performed simulations with the optimal yaw offsets applied using a realistic yaw offset controller in conjunction with a baseline yaw controller, showing good agreement with the predicted energy gain using the probabilistic model. Using the Gaussian wake model in FLORIS as an example, we compared the performance of yaw offset controllers optimized for static and dynamic wind conditions for different turbine spacings and turbulence intensity values, assuming uniformly distributed wind directions. For a spacing of five rotor diameters and a turbulence intensity of 10 %, robust yaw offsets optimized for variable wind directions yielded an energy gain equivalent to 3.24 % of wake losses recovered, compared to 1.42 % of wake losses recovered with yaw offsets optimized for static wind directions. In general, accounting for wind direction variability in the yaw offset optimization process was found to improve energy production more as the separation distance increased, whereas the relative improvement remained roughly the same for the range of turbulence intensity values considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Rare Lepton Decays and Differentiable Hadronization Models - From Signatures of New Physics to Data-driven Event Generation

This dissertation is partitioned into two parts: phenomenological studies focused on rare lepton decays as probes of heavy and light new physics, and the development of differentiable, data-driven hadronization models. Part I develops the phenomenology of new physics signatures stemming from rare charged lepton flavor violating decays probed by experiments at the intensity frontier. These include interactions mediated by both high-scale effective operators and light new physics, manifesting in multi-lepton final states ($\mu \to 5e$), elastic nuclear transitions ($\mu \to e$ conversion), baryon-number-violating muon capture, and time-dependent signals from ultralight dark matter ($\mu \to e \phi, \tau \to \ell \phi$). Part II develops two distinct strategies for advancing differentiable and data-driven hadronization models. One involves comprehensive reweighting frameworks for hadronization that enable efficient uncertainty estimation, facilitate parameter tuning, and interface naturally with differentiable programming paradigms. The other introduces machine-learning-based methods for extracting microscopic fragmentation dynamics directly from macroscopic observables through the deformation of existing models -- effectively providing solutions to the inverse problem of hadronization. Altogether, these studies advance the interpretability, flexibility, and precision of theoretical predictions for both high-intensity and high-energy experiments.

Menzo, Tony [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:000000022013457↗

Characterization of shale using Helium and Argon at high pressures

In order to estimate the shale gas in place and the eventual recovery during shale gas operations, one of the key requirements is to accurately characterize the shale’s petrophysical and transport properties such as porosity, permeability, diffusivity, and storage capacity. Despite the many efforts reported in the technical literature aiming to provide an improved understanding of the complex pore structures and the associated fluid flow in gas shales, complete characterization of organic-rich shale samples still poses a big challenge. Here, we have characterized mass transfer and sorption in shale at different length scales using Helium (He) and Argon (Ar) as probe gases. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) with a shale cube of ~1 cm 3 in size and gas expansion experiments with a full-diameter core (3.5” in diameter) were used to measure sorption kinetics/isotherms and mass transfer, respectively. Both samples are from the same depth/location in the Marcellus shale formation. The TGA steady-state technique was initially used to generate excess sorption isotherms for Ar, while dynamic TGA experiments were used to study its sorption kinetics. The TGA experiments demonstrate that Ar, which has a similar sorption potential as Methane, but is generally assumed to be inert, adsorbs onto the surfaces of the mesoporous and microporous regions of the shale samples according to a Langmuir-type behavior. Helium expansion experiments, on the full-diameter core, were used to measure the overall porosity, on the basis that He is a non-sorbing and inert gas as compared to Ar. The He expansion experiments, furthermore, allow us to delineate the mass transfer of gas across the inherent hierarchy of pore sizes, including macropores (macro- and microcracks), mesopores and micropores. Similar expansion experiments were also performed with Ar to study the combined impact of mass transfer and sorption. A triple-porosity model (TPM) was utilized to interpret the He expansion experiments with the shale core and to extract (estimate) relevant transport parameters. We report and compare here the diffusivities and permeabilities of the whole core for both He and Ar, as calculated from the modeling and fitting of the experimental data. On the premise that the shale cube is representative of the matrix region of the core, the Ar sorption kinetics from the cube experiments were subsequently combined with the transport parameters extracted from the He experiments to predict the behavior of the Ar expansion test with the full-diameter core. An excellent agreement is observed between the model predictions and the experimental data. The experimental observations and their interpretation indicate that one must be cautious when using Ar to estimate the true porosity and permeability of shales. In addition, we demonstrate that He and Ar probe gases, when used in tandem, can be employed effectively as a tool to characterize shales in terms of mass transfer and sorption dynamics across scales.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Aggregated DER_A Model Parameterization via Online Moving Horizon Estimation

Here, this paper introduces a methodology for parameterizing the DER_A model using a novel smooth mathematical representation, simplifying the process and preserving accuracy in modeling inverter-based generator (IBG). The methodology employs an online parameterization process that can operate in real-time. The model parameterization process is structured into five sequential steps, each targeting a specific aspect of the DER_A model through moving horizon estimation. This approach adapts to systems with varying voltage and frequency support requirements by selectively applying each step. Simulation results on systems with both known and unknown parameters validate the methodology’s effectiveness. The online moving horizon estimation technique accurately captures the dynamics of the overall system and ensures that the parameterized DER_A model closely mirrors the real system’s voltage, current, and power dynamics. The findings highlight the potential of this methodology to substantially improve and simplify the dynamic modeling of power systems, paving the way for more reliable and robust IBG and grid integration.

42 ENGINEERING↗