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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of Error Rate Depending on Operator Expertise and Simulator Complexity

This paper analyzes operator's error rate from experiments, depending on the expertise and simulator complexity. This study uses the Rancor Microworld, a simplified simulator developed by INL, and the Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS), a less simplified simulator developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The error rates were measured from simulation data of a total of 72 participants, and the collected error rate data were analyzed using analysis of variance (ANOVA) test.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use of machine learning for a helium line intensity ratio method in Magnum-PSI

Optical emission spectroscopy (OES) of helium (He) line intensities has been used to measure the electron density, ne, and temperature, Te, in various plasma devices. In this study, a neural network with five hidden layers is introduced to model the relation between the OES data and ne/Te from laser Thomson scattering in the linear plasma device Magnum-PSI and compared to multiple regression analysis. It is shown that the neural network reduces the residual errors of prediction values (ne and Te) less than half those of the multiple regression analysis. We checked two different data splitting methods for training and validation data, i.e., with and without considering the unit of discharge. A comparison of the splitting methods suggests that the residual error will decrease to ~10% even for a new discharge data when accumulating a sufficient data set.

Kajita, Shin↗
DOE OSTI2020

FPDetect: Efficient Reasoning About Stencil Programs Using Selective Direct Evaluation

We present FPDetect, a low-overhead approach for detecting logical errors and soft errors affecting stencil computations without generating false positives. We develop an offline analysis that tightly estimates the number of floating-point bits preserved across stencil applications. This estimate rigorously bounds the values expected in the data space of the computation. Violations of this bound can be attributed with certainty to errors. FPDetect helps synthesize error detectors customized for user-specified levels of accuracy and coverage. FPDetect also enables overhead reduction techniques based on deploying these detectors coarsely in space and time. Experimental evaluations demonstrate the practicality of our approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of the Neutron Electromagnetic Form Factor Ratio at High Momentum Transfer

The inner structure of the nucleon (proton and neutron) remains a topic of great interest in nuclear and particle physics, after many decades of study. For example, understanding the quark-gluon dynamics inside the nucleon would shed light on how 99% of the nucleon mass is created. The neutron electromagnetic form factors, Gn E and Gn M , give important insights into the neutron structure. The Super BigBite Spectrometer (SBS) program at Jefferson Lab (JLab) seeks to extend the form factor measurements for both the proton and the neutron. The neutron electric form actor, Gn E , has been historically difficult to measure due to the short lifetime of the free neutron and the small value of Gn E . The GEn-II experiment is part of the SBS program and seeks to measure Gn E , significantly increasing the high momentum transfer coverage. A newly designed polarized 3He target increased the figure of merit by three times compared to previous measurements. The analysis of this data is especially challenging due to the unprecedented high-rate environment caused by the open nature of the spectrometer with a direct line of sight to the target. This required developing new Gas Electron Multiplier (GEM) particle trackers which can cover large areas demanded by this setup and handle particle rates up to 500 kHz/cm2. Rates this high over a large area is unprecedented in particle tracking systems and came with a number of challenges. Data taken in the SBS program was critical to understanding hardware and software solutions that improved the track reconstruction efficiency to be >97% with a position resolution of 70 ?m. In previous experiments the proton electromagnetic form factors, Gp E and Gp M were measured up to Q2 = 8.5 GeV2 and Q2 = 30 GeV2, respectively, while Gn E has only been measured up to Q2 = 3.4 GeV2. The GEn-II experiment has measured the neutron form factor ratio, Gn E/Gn M, at Q2 values of 2.90, 6.50, and 9.47 GeV2 by scattering a polarized electron beam with a polarized 3He target, used here as an effective polarized neutron target, and measuring the double spin asymmetry of the cross section. Previous Gn E measurements do not extend above Q2 = 3.4 GeV2, and therefore this analysis has extended the world data by almost three times. The background correction is especially difficult at the higher Q2 settings leading to large systematic errors. As very exploratory results from this early analysis of the data, we find for Q2 = 2.90 GeV2, Gn E = 0.0157 ±stat 0.0016 ±sys 0.0011, for Q2 = 6.50 GeV2, Gn E = 0.0067 ±stat 0.0019 ±sys 0.0005, and for Q2 = 9.46 GeV2, Gn E = 0.0046 ±stat 0.0023 ±sys 0.0005. These results are compared to predictions from the Dyson-Schwinger Equations (DSE) model and a Relativistic Constituent Quark Model (RCQM).

Jeffas, Sean↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces Empowered THz Communication in LEO Satellite Networks

Massive swarms of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites are poising to serve for high-speed and low-latency ubiquitous connectivity with almost global coverage. Broadband inter-satellite communication is one of the key elements of satellite communication systems that orchestrate massive satellite swarms in cooperation. Thanks to technological advancements in microelectronics and micro-systems, the terahertz (THz) band has emerged as a strong candidate for inter-satellite links (ISLs) due to its promise of wideband communication. Especially, multi-antenna systems can improve the system performance along with the wideband supported by the THz band. However, multi-antenna systems should be reconsidered due to their size, weight, and price/power (SWaP) constraints. On the other hand, as a state-of-art multi-antenna technology, reconfigurable intelligent surface (RIS) is able to relax SWaP constraints because of its passive component-based structures. However, as similar reflection characteristic throughout wideband is difficult to meet, it is possible to observe beam misalignment. In this work, we first provide an assessment of the use of the THz band for ISLs and quantify the impact of misalignment fading on error performance. Then, in order to compensate for the high path loss associated with high carrier frequencies, and to further improve the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), we propose the use of RISs mounted on neighboring satellites to enable signal propagation. Based on a mathematical analysis of the problem, we present the error rate expressions for RIS-assisted ISLs with misalignment fading. Also, numerical results show that RIS can leverage the error rate performance and achievable capacity of THz ISLs.

reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RISs)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Central Compact Finite‐Difference Scheme With High Spectral Resolution for KdV Equation

This work presents a combination of cell‐node and cell‐centered compact finite difference scheme for the approximation of third derivatives involved in Korteweg–de Vries (KdV) equations. This approach employs a half‐shifted derivative construction at cell centers, avoiding the need for compact interpolation, thereby removing transfer errors; hence, it improves spectral resolution and maintains high‐order accuracy. Fourier analysis is performed to show the spectral properties of the proposed formulation, which provides higher spectral resolutions as compared to node‐based compact schemes. A filtering strategy is incorporated to suppress high‐frequency oscillations without compromising the accuracy of the numerical scheme, and the total variation diminishing Runge Kutta (TVDRK3) method is applied for time integration. Numerical experiments on linear, nonlinear, and coupled KdV systems are conducted, and a comparative analysis with cell‐node compact schemes confirms that the proposed scheme consistently reduces errors by up to an order of magnitude and achieves high spectral resolution properties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validation of the DESI DR2 measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations from galaxies and quasars

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2) galaxy and quasar clustering data represents a significant expansion of data from Data Release 1 (DR1), providing improved statistical precision in baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) constraints across multiple tracers, including bright galaxies, luminous red galaxies, emission line galaxies, and quasars. In this paper, we validate the BAO analysis of DR2. We present the results of robustness tests on the blinded DR2 data and, after unblinding, consistency checks on the unblinded DR2 data. All results are compared with those obtained from a suite of mock catalogs that replicate the selection and clustering properties of the DR2 sample. We confirm the consistency of DR2 BAO measurements with DR1 while achieving a reduction in statistical uncertainties due to the increased survey volume and completeness. The combined BAO precision, including both statistical and systematic errors, improves from ∼0.52% in DR1 to 0.30% in DR2—a factor of 1.7 gain. We assess the impact of analysis choices, including different data vectors (correlation function vs power spectrum), modeling approaches and systematics treatments, and an assumption of the Gaussian likelihood, finding that our BAO constraints are stable across these variations and assumptions with a few minor refinements to the baseline setup of the DR1 BAO analysis. We summarize a series of pre-unblinding tests that confirmed the readiness of our analysis pipeline, the final systematic errors, and the DR2 BAO analysis baseline. The successful completion of these tests led to the unblinding of the DR2 BAO measurements, ultimately leading to the DESI DR2 cosmological analysis, with their implications for the expansion history of the Universe and the nature of dark energy presented in the DESI key paper (companion paper).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Framework to Integrate Human Reliability Data Obtained from Different Sources Based on the Complexity Scores of Proceduralized Tasks

For many decades, PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) or PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) techniques have been used to enhance the operational safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on the consideration of potential hazards that could result in an unexpected consequence. As human error is one of the potential hazards, diverse human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have been proposed to provide a systematic way to estimate the likelihood of human errors (i.e., human error probability, HEP) in specific task contexts. Accordingly, it is evident that the quality of HRA results strongly depends on the credibility of HEP estimations. This implies that, in terms of enhancing this credibility, the collection of raw information (HRA data) that is helpful for understating when and why human errors occur is a crucial issue. In order to address this issue, in this study, the feasibility of a framework to integrate HRA data obtained from different sources is investigated based on the complexity of proceduralized tasks.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cosmology intertwined: A review of the particle physics, astrophysics, and cosmology associated with the cosmological tensions and anomalies

The standard Λ Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model provides a good description of a wide range of astrophysical and cosmological data. However, there are a few big open questions that make the standard model look like an approximation to a more realistic scenario yet to be found. In this paper, we list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, taking into account the current discordances between the different cosmological probes, such as the disagreement in the value of the Hubble constant H 0 , the σ 8 – S 8 tension, and other less statistically significant anomalies. While these discordances can still be in part the result of systematic errors, their persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the necessity for new physics or generalisations beyond the standard model. In this paper, we focus on the 5.0 σ tension between the Planck CMB estimate of the Hubble constant H 0 and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the H 0 evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we list a few interesting new physics models that could alleviate this tension and discuss how the next decade's experiments will be crucial. Moreover, we focus on the tension of the Planck CMB data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density Ω m , and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure ( σ 8 , f σ 8 ). We list a few interesting models proposed for alleviating this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit a full array of data with a single model and not just one parameter at a time. Additionally, we present a wide range of other less discussed anomalies at a statistical significance level lower than the H 0 – S 8 tensions which may also constitute hints towards new physics, and we discuss possible generic theoretical approaches that can collectively explain the non-standard nature of these signals. Finally, we give an overview of upgraded experiments and next-generation space missions and facilities on Earth that will be of crucial importance to address all these open questions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of solid uranium particulates on cotton swipes with an automated microextraction-ICP-MS system

Here, an automated microextraction method coupled to an inductively coupled plasma – mass spectrometer (ICP-MS) was developed for the direct analysis of solid uranium particulates on the surface of cotton swipes. The microextraction probe extracts particulates from the sample surface, in a flowing solvent, and directs the removed analyte to an ICP-MS for isotopic determination. The automated system utilizes a mechanical XY stage that is software controlled with the capability of saving and returning to specific locations and a camera focused to the swipe surface for optimal viewing of the extracted locations (i.e., material present). Here, particulates (n = 135) were extracted and measured by ICP-MS, including 35 depleted uranyl nitrate hexahydrate (UN) (used for mass bias corrections), 50 uranyl fluoride (UO 2 F 2 ), and 50 uranyl acetate (UAc) particulates. Blank extractions were performed on the cotton swipes between triplicate sample analyses. Between each swipe extraction, the probe was sent between two wells containing 10% and 5% HNO 3 to clean the probe head and to eliminate any analyte carryover between particulates. The measured 235 U/ 238 U and 234 U/ 238 U isotope ratios for the UO 2 F 2 particulates were 0.00725(8) and 0.000054(4), a percent relative difference (% RD) of –0.041% and –1.7% from the reference isotope ratios determined in-lab through multi-collector ICP-MS analysis of dissolved aliquots of the U material. The UAc samples had a measured 235 U/ 238 U isotope ratio of 0.00206(7), a –0.96% relative difference from the reference value of 0.00208(1). The 234 U/ 238 U and 236 U/ 238 U isotope ratios were 0.000008(1) and 0.000031(4), –5.1% RD and –4.3% RD, respectively. The automated sample stage enabled seamless and rapid particle analysis, leading to a significant increase in throughput versus what was previously possible. Additionally, the saved location capability reduced user sampling error as sampling locations were easily stored and recalled. Analysis of U particles on the swipe surface – including blanks, mass bias, and triplicate extractions – was completed in less than an hour without any sample preparation necessary.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of DESI × DES using the Lagrangian effective theory of LSS

In this work we use Lagrangian perturbation theory to analyze the harmonic space galaxy clustering signal of the Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) and luminous red galaxies (LRGs) targeted by the dark energy spectroscopic instrument (DESI), combined with the galaxy-galaxy lensing signal measured around these galaxies using Dark Energy Survey Year 3 source galaxies. The BGS and LRG galaxies are extremely well characterized by DESI spectroscopy and, as a result, lens galaxy redshift uncertainty and photometric systematics contribute negligibly to the error budget of our “2 × 2-point” analysis. On the modeling side, this work represents the first application of the SPINOSAURUS code, implementing an effective field theory model for galaxy intrinsic alignments, and we additionally introduce a new scheme ( MAIAR ) for marginalizing over the large uncertainties in the redshift evolution of the intrinsic alignment signal. Furthermore, this is the first application of a hybrid effective field theory model for galaxy bias based on the A emulus 𝜈 simulations. Our main result is a measurement of the amplitude of the lensing signal, 𝑆 8 = 𝜎 8 ⁢(Ω 𝑚 /0.3) 0.5 = 0.85⁢0$^{+0.042}_{−0.050}$, consistent with values of this parameter derived from the primary cosmic microwave background. This constraint is artificially improved by a factor of 51% if we assume a more standard, but restrictive parametrization for the redshift evolution and sample dependence of the intrinsic alignment signal, and 63% if we additionally assume the nonlinear alignment model. Furthermore, we show that when fixing the cosmological model to the best-fit values from Planck PR4 there is > 5⁢𝜎 evidence for a deviation of the evolution of the intrinsic alignment signal from the functional form that is usually assumed in cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

High order interpolation of magnetic fields with vector potential reconstruction for particle simulations

We propose a method for interpolating divergence-free continuous magnetic fields via vector potential reconstruction using Hermite interpolation, which ensures high-order continuity for applications requiring adaptive, high-order ordinary differential equation (ODE) integrators, such as the Dormand-Prince method. The method provides C(m) continuity and achieves high-order accuracy, making it particularly suited for particle trajectory integration and Poincaré section analysis under optimal integration order and timestep adjustments. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that the Hermite interpolation method preserves volume and continuity, which are critical for conserving toroidal canonical momentum and magnetic moment in guiding center simulations, especially over long-term trajectory integration. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of insufficient derivative continuity on Runge-Kutta schemes and show how it degrades accuracy at low error tolerances, introducing discontinuity-induced truncation errors. Lastly, we demonstrate performant Poincaré section analysis in two relevant settings of field data collocated from finite element meshes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing group structures using hierarchical division

Creating group structures with few groups that give low errors is a difficult problem in reactor analysis. In recent years, automated optimization techniques have been applied to this task. We continue this trend by applying the hierarchical division algorithm to generate optimized group structures that minimize a cost function. At each stage, the algorithm adds a single group boundary to an existing group structure, dividing one group into two to increase the resolution of the group structure. The location of the added boundary is the one that gives the lowest error over all possible new boundary locations. Our implementation requires a beginning group structure, a set of candidate new boundary locations, and a set of reference reaction rates. As a proof of concept, we used WIMS-69 as the initial group structure, XMAS-172 as the ending group structures, and a 344-group reference group structure. Testing on two simple, homogenized reactor problems, we found that hierarchical division was able to reduce the error by a factor of around 5 with an increase of only 15% in the number of groups. Because hierarchical division can get stuck in local minima, it often reaches a plateau in its error reduction capability as many groups are added. Nevertheless, we find hierarchical division has strong potential to make good group structures into great group structures at a modest increase in computational cost. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian inference approach to analyze apparent activation barriers and reaction orders from microreactor data

Statistical analysis of steady-state catalytic kinetic data is often limited by data sparsity due to the slow pace at which the data is collected. Data sparsity and limitations in statistical analysis make it difficult to differentiate between mechanistic models and catalytic sites. A Bayesian inference tool is reported for catalysis researchers to estimate error in the determination of reaction orders from steady state microreactor data. The benefits of a Bayesian inference approach are discussed, as an alternative to the more common frequentist approach. The approach incorporates prior knowledge of the system and the data collected to form an error estimate on reaction orders. We investigated the effects of three distinct data treatments—individual fitting of trials, pooled analysis, and constrained regression methods—on the precision and uncertainty of reaction order determinations. To assess the robustness of our findings, we conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the influence of Bayesian parameters on uncertainty estimation. Additionally, we utilized synthetic data to illustrate how data quality impacts the precision of uncertainty assessments. We show Bayesian analysis can obtain a more precise estimation of error with a sparse data set than a frequentist analysis. Finally, this work provides strong evidence that the adoption of Bayesian analysis of kinetic data may help researchers make more precise arguments as to the strength of their evidence for a particular mechanistic hypothesis, or in comparing across different catalysts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Framework for Error-Bounded Approximate Computing, with an Application to Dot Products

Approximate computing techniques, which trade off the computation accuracy of an algorithm for better performance and energy efficiency, have been successful in reducing computation and power costs in several domains. However, error sensitive applications in high-performance computing are unable to benefit from existing approximate computing strategies that are not developed with guaranteed error bounds. While approximate computing techniques can be developed for individual high-performance computing applications by domain specialists, this often requires additional theoretical analysis and potentially extensive software modification. Hence, the development of low-level error-bounded approximate computing strategies that can be introduced into any high-performance computing application without requiring additional analysis or significant software alterations is desirable. In this paper, we provide a contribution in this direction by proposing a general framework for designing error-bounded approximate computing strategies and apply it to the dot product kernel to develop \bf qdot---an error-bounded approximate dot product kernel. Following the introduction of qdot, here we perform a theoretical analysis that yields a deterministic bound on the relative approximation error introduced by qdot. Empirical tests are performed to illustrate the tightness of the derived error bound and to demonstrate the effectiveness of qdot on a synthetic dataset, as well as two scientific benchmarks---the conjugate gradient (CG) and power methods. In some instances, using qdot for the dot products in CG can result in many components being quantized to half precision without increasing the iteration count required for convergence to the same solution as CG using a double precision dot product.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

The completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: BAO and RSD measurements from the anisotropic power spectrum of the quasar sample between redshift 0.8 and 2.2

ABSTRACT We measure the clustering of quasars of the final data release (DR16) of eBOSS. The sample contains $343\, 708$ quasars between redshifts 0.8 ≤ z ≤ 2.2 over $4699\, \mathrm{deg}^2$. We calculate the Legendre multipoles (0,2,4) of the anisotropic power spectrum and perform a BAO and a Full-Shape (FS) analysis at the effective redshift zeff = 1.480. The errors include systematic errors that amount to 1/3 of the statistical error. The systematic errors comprise a modelling part studied using a blind N-body mock challenge and observational effects studied with approximate mocks to account for various types of redshift smearing and fibre collisions. For the BAO analysis, we measure the transverse comoving distance DM(zeff)/rdrag = 30.60 ± 0.90 and the Hubble distance DH(zeff)/rdrag = 13.34 ± 0.60. This agrees with the configuration space analysis, and the consensus yields: DM(zeff)/rdrag = 30.69 ± 0.80 and DH(zeff)/rdrag = 13.26 ± 0.55. In the FS analysis, we fit the power spectrum using a model based on Regularised Perturbation Theory, which includes redshift space distortions and the Alcock–Paczynski effect. The results are DM(zeff)/rdrag = 30.68 ± 0.90 and DH(zeff)/rdrag = 13.52 ± 0.51 and we constrain the linear growth rate of structure f(zeff)σ8(zeff) = 0.476 ± 0.047. Our results agree with the configuration space analysis. The consensus analysis of the eBOSS quasar sample yields: DM(zeff)/rdrag = 30.21 ± 0.79, DH(zeff)/rdrag = 3.23 ± 0.47, and f(zeff)σ8(zeff) = 0.462 ± 0.045 and is consistent with a flat ΛCDM cosmological model using Planck results.

Neveux, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantum process tomography of a Mølmer-Sørensen gate via a global beam

Here, we present a framework for quantum process tomography of two-ion interactions that leverages modulations of the trapping potential and composite pulses from a global laser beam to achieve individual-ion addressing. Tomographic analysis of identity and delay processes reveals dominant error contributions from laser decoherence and slow qubit frequency drift during the tomography experiment. We use this framework on two co-trapped 40 Ca + ions to analyze both an optimized and an overpowered Mølmer–Sørensen gate and to compare the results of this analysis to a less informative Bell-state tomography measurement and to predictions based on a simplified noise model. These results show that the technique is effective for the characterization of two-ion quantum processes and for the extraction of meaningful information about the errors present in the system. The experimental convenience of this method will allow for more widespread use of process tomography for characterizing entangling gates in trapped-ion systems.

quantum computing↗
DOE OSTI2021

The updated ITPA global H-mode confinement database: description and analysis

The multi-machine ITPA Global H-mode Confinement Database has been upgraded with new data from JET with the ITER-like wall and ASDEX Upgrade with the full tungsten wall. This paper describes the new database and presents results of regression analysis to estimate the global energy confinement scaling in H-mode plasmas using a standard power law. Various subsets of the database are considered, focusing on type of wall and divertor materials, confinement regime (all H-modes, ELMy H or ELM-free) and ITER-like constraints. Apart from ordinary least squares, two other, robust regression techniques are applied, which take into account uncertainty on all variables. Regression on data from individual devices shows that, generally, the confinement dependence on density and the power degradation are weakest in the fully metallic devices. Using the multi-machine scalings, predictions are made of the confinement time in a standard ELMy H-mode scenario in ITER. The uncertainty on the scaling parameters is discussed with a view to practically useful error bars on the parameters and predictions. One of the derived scalings for ELMy H-modes on an ITER-like subset is studied in particular and compared to the IPB98(y,2) confinement scaling in engineering and dimensionless form. Transformation of this new scaling from engineering variables to dimensionless quantities is shown to result in large error bars on the dimensionless scaling. Regression analysis in the space of dimensionless variables is therefore proposed as an alternative, yielding acceptable estimates for the dimensionless scaling. The new scaling, which is dimensionally correct within the uncertainties, suggests that some dependencies of confinement in the multi- machine database can be reconciled with parameter scans in individual devices. This includes vanishingly small dependence of confinement on line-averaged density and normalized plasma pressure (β), as well as a noticeable, positive dependence on effective atomic mass and plasma triangularity. Extrapolation of this scaling to ITER yields a somewhat lower confinement time compared to the IPB98(y, 2) prediction, possibly related to the considerably weaker dependence on major radius in the new scaling (slightly above linear). Further studies are needed to compare more flexible regression models with the power law used here. In addition, data from more devices concerning possible ‘hidden variables’ could help to determine their influence on confinement, while adding data in sparsely populated areas of the parameter space may contribute to further disentangling some of the global confinement dependencies in tokamak plasmas.

Database↗