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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21

Climate impacts in scenarios: time to close the loop?

Reaching a full understanding of the consequences of climate change for society and ecosystems, and the ensuing needs for adaptation, requires a consideration of the interactions between human and Earth systems. Currently, however, climate research largely separates the influence of society on climate from the influence of climate on society; that is, it doesn’t “close the loop.” A primary example of this approach is the generation and use of earth system model (ESM) simulations in the climate change research community. Large-scale socio-economic models, known as integrated assessment models (IAMs), are used to project emissions and land use change which serve as input to ESMs. ESM projections then serve as input to models of impacts on society and ecosystems. But, according to this modeling chain, those impacts do not affect the emissions and land use that drove the ESMs in the first place. Previous work has not drawn firm conclusions on whether this feedback would be large enough to warrant explicitly accounting for it. Two prominent possibilities, however, are that emissions and land use scenarios representing the high and low ends of the plausible range of future climate change are both too extreme. The high-end scenario may miss damaging impacts that would reduce economic activity, and therefore emissions, while the low-end scenario may ignore climate feedbacks that would make large-scale land-based carbon removal ineffective and therefore would hamper mitigation at the level assumed by the scenario. In this piece, we identify the opportunities and challenges that implementing such feedback loops would face. We argue that recent developments in climate impact research, human system modeling and ESM emulation make the time ripe to use IAMs in a structured model intercomparison exercise. Model intercomparison projects have benefitted the climate modeling community for decade snow, and more recently have also benefitted the impact modeling community. An IAM intercomparison focused on integrating impacts could make large strides in testing the implications of these feedbacks and assessing whether closing the loop would fundamentally change our outlook on future climate changes and their consequences.

Tebaldi, Claudia↗

Terrestrial carbon dynamics in an era of increasing wildfire

In an increasingly flammable world, wildfire is altering the terrestrial carbon balance. However, the degree to which novel wildfire regimes disrupt biological function remains unclear. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of above and below ground processes that govern carbon loss and recovery across diverse ecosystems. In this study, we find that intensifying wildfire regimes are increasingly exceeding biological thresholds of resilience, causing ecosystems to convert to a lower carbon-carrying capacity. Growing evidence suggests that plants compensate for fire damage by allocating carbon below ground to access nutrients released by fire, while wildfire selects for microbial communities with rapid growth rates and the ability to metabolize pyrolyzed carbon. Determining controls on carbon dynamics following wildfire requires integration of experimental and modeling frameworks across scales and ecosystems. Fire severity is expected to increase as a result of warming. This will potentially amplify climate change due to its impact on the carbon cycle. This Review discusses ecosystem carbon loss and recovery following wildfire, and highlights where further work is needed to inform model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coordination of rooting, xylem, and stomatal strategies explains the response of conifer forest stands to multi-year drought in the southern Sierra Nevada of California

Abstract. Extreme droughts are a major determinant of ecosystem disturbance that impacts plant communities and feeds back into climate change through changes in plant functioning. However, the complex relationships between aboveground and belowground plant hydraulic traits and their role in governing plant responses to drought are not fully understood. In this study, we use a model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator in a configuration that includes plant hydraulics (FATES-Hydro), to investigate ecosystem responses to the 2012–2015 California drought in comparison with observations at a site in the southern Sierra Nevada that experienced widespread tree mortality during this drought. We conduct a sensitivity analysis to explore how different plant water sourcing and hydraulic strategies lead to differential responses during normal and drought conditions. The analysis shows the following. Deep roots that sustain productivity through the dry season are needed for the model to capture observed seasonal cycles of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) in normal years, and deep-rooted strategies are nonetheless subject to large reductions in ET and GPP when the deep soil reservoir is depleted during extreme droughts, in agreement with observations. Risky stomatal strategies lead to greater productivity during normal years as compared to safer stomatal control, but they also lead to a high risk of xylem embolism during the 2012–2015 drought. For a given stand density, stomatal and xylem traits have a stronger impact on plant water status than on ecosystem-level fluxes. Our study highlights the significance of resolving plant water sourcing strategies to represent drought impacts on plants and consequent feedbacks in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Informing Robust Functional Relationship Benchmarks: An Evaluation of the Temperature Sensitivity of Ecosystem Respiration Across the Arctic-Boreal Region

During land model development, simulated carbon dynamics are often benchmarked against observational data sets to evaluate model performance. Functional relationship benchmarks are the relationship between a driving variable (e.g., temperature) and a response variable (e.g., ecosystem respiration) and are a promising tool for assessing model performance by evaluating modeled sensitivities to changing environmental conditions. However, observed functional relationships can be influenced by choices made during data collection and throughout the benchmarking process, impacting the inferred skill of land models. To avoid misrepresenting a model's true performance, it is necessary to systematically evaluate best practices when constructing functional relationship benchmarks. We developed a set of guidelines for constructing functional relationship benchmarks, considering the choice of data set, number of daily observations, temporal extent, and temporal resolution across Alaska and Canada over a 20-year period from 2001 to 2020. The temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration from observations, evaluated through an apparent Q 10 , is highly variable both spatially and as a result of the data processing approach applied in the benchmark formation. When benchmarking 13 models from the Warming Permafrost Model Intercomparison Project (WrPMIP), the range in inferred model skill is substantially impacted by the choices applied in constructing functional relationship benchmarks. The inferred performance of a given model is most sensitive to the number of daily observations and temporal extent, followed by choice of benchmark data set and temporal averaging. Results from this analysis can guide the development of consistent and robust functional relationships for future model evaluation studies.

Poe, Jeralyn [Northern Arizona University, Flagsta↗

Relative Impact of Sea Ice and Temperature Changes on Arctic Marine Production

We use a modern Earth system model to approximate the relative importance of ice versus temperature on Arctic marine ecosystem dynamics. We show that while the model adequately simulates ice volume, water temperature, air-sea CO 2 flux, and annual primary production in the Arctic, itunderestimates upper water column nitrate across the region. This nitrate bias is likely responsible for the apparent underestimation of ice algae production. Despite this shortcoming, the model appears to be a useful tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on phytoplankton production and carbon dynamics over the Arctic Ocean. Our experiments indicate that under a warmer climate scenario, the percentage of ocean warming that could be apportioned to a reduction in ice area ranged from 11% to 100%, while decreasing ice area could account for 22–100% of the increase in annual ocean primary production. The change to CO2 air-sea flux in response to ice and temperature changes averaged an Arctic-wide 5.5 Tg C yr –1 (3.5%) increase, into the ocean. This increased carbon sink may be short-lived, as ice cover continues to decrease and the ocean warms. The change in carbon fixation from phytoplankton in response to increased temperatures and reduced ice was generally more than a magnitude larger than the changes to CO 2 flux, highlighting the importance of fully considering changes to the marine ecosystem when assessing Arctic carbon cycle dynamics. Our work demonstrates the importance of ice dynamics in controlling ocean warming and production and thus the need for well-behaved ice and BGC models within Earth system models if we hope to accurately predict Arctic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Substantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH4 emissions

Abstract Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions ( $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 ) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH 4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 and temperature, suggesting larger $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH 4 production are thus needed to improve global CH 4 budget assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microbial carbon limitation: The need for integrating microorganisms into our understanding of ecosystem carbon cycling

Abstract Numerous studies have demonstrated that fertilization with nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium increases plant productivity in both natural and managed ecosystems, demonstrating that primary productivity is nutrient limited in most terrestrial ecosystems. In contrast, it has been demonstrated that heterotrophic microbial communities in soil are primarily limited by organic carbon or energy. While this concept of contrasting limitations, that is, microbial carbon and plant nutrient limitation, is based on strong evidence that we review in this paper, it is often ignored in discussions of ecosystem response to global environment changes. The plant‐centric perspective has equated plant nutrient limitations with those of whole ecosystems, thereby ignoring the important role of the heterotrophs responsible for soil decomposition in driving ecosystem carbon storage. To truly integrate carbon and nutrient cycles in ecosystem science, we must account for the fact that while plant productivity may be nutrient limited, the secondary productivity by heterotrophic communities is inherently carbon limited. Ecosystem carbon cycling integrates the independent physiological responses of its individual components, as well as tightly coupled exchanges between autotrophs and heterotrophs. To the extent that the interacting autotrophic and heterotrophic processes are controlled by organisms that are limited by nutrient versus carbon accessibility, respectively, we propose that ecosystems by definition cannot be ‘limited’ by nutrients or carbon alone. Here, we outline how models aimed at predicting non‐steady state ecosystem responses over time can benefit from dissecting ecosystems into the organismal components and their inherent limitations to better represent plant–microbe interactions in coupled carbon and nutrient models.

Soong, Jennifer L.↗

Stoichiometrically coupled carbon and nitrogen cycling in the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization model version 1.0 (MIMICS-CN v1.0)

Explicit consideration of microbial physiology in soil biogeochemical models that represent coupled carbon–nitrogen dynamics presents opportunities to deepen understanding of ecosystem responses to environmental change. The MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) model explicitly represents microbial physiology and physicochemical stabilization of soil carbon (C) on regional and global scales. Here we present a new version of MIMICS with coupled C and nitrogen (N) cycling through litter, microbial, and soil organic matter (SOM) pools. The model was parameterized and validated against C and N data from the Long-Term Inter-site Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET; six litter types, 10 years of observations, and 13 sites across North America). The model simulates C and N losses from litterbags in the LIDET study with reasonable accuracy (C: R 2 =0.63; N: R 2 =0.29), which is comparable with simulations from the DAYCENT model that implicitly represents microbial activity (C: R 2 =0.67; N: R 2 =0.30). Subsequently, we evaluated equilibrium values of stocks (total soil C and N, microbial biomass C and N, inorganic N) and microbial process rates (soil heterotrophic respiration, N mineralization) simulated by MIMICS-CN across the 13 simulated LIDET sites against published observations from other continent-wide datasets. We found that MIMICS-CN produces equilibrium values in line with measured values, showing that the model generates plausible estimates of ecosystem soil biogeochemical dynamics across continental-scale gradients. MIMICS-CN provides a platform for coupling C and N projections in a microbially explicit model, but experiments still need to identify the physiological and stoichiometric characteristics of soil microbes, especially under environmental change scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Respiration regimes in rivers: Partitioning source–specific respiration from metabolism time series

Respiration in streams is controlled by the timing, magnitude, and quality of organic matter (OM) inputs from internal primary production and external fluxes. Here, we estimated the contribution of different OM sources to seasonal, annual, and event-driven characteristics of whole-stream ecosystem respiration (ER) using an inverse modeling framework that accounts for possible time-lags between OM inputs and respiration. We modeled site-specific, dynamic OM stocks contributing to ER: autochthonous OM from gross primary production (GPP); allochthonous OM delivered during flow events; and seasonal pulses of leaf litter. OM stored in the sediment and dissolved organic matter (DOM) transported during baseflow were modeled as a stable stock contributing to baseline respiration. We applied this modeling framework to five streams with different catchment size, climate, and canopy cover, where multi-year time series of ER and environmental variables were available. Overall, the model explained between 53% and 74% of observed ER dynamics. Respiration of autochthonous OM tracked seasonal peaks in GPP in spring or summer. Increases in ER were often associated with high-flow events. Respiration associated with litter inputs was larger in smaller streams. Time lags between leaf inputs and respiration were longer than for other OM sources, likely due to lower biological reactivity. Model estimates of source-specific ER and OM stocks compared well with existing measures of OM stocks, inputs, and respiration or decomposition. Our modeling approach has the potential to expand the scale of comparative analyses of OM dynamics within and among freshwater ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Observed and Imputed Volumetric Soil Water Content Timeseries for the New Mexico Elevation Gradient

Reliable soil water content (SWC) data are essential for understanding dryland ecosystem dynamics, but high-frequency SWC sensors often fail, creating gaps in critical datasets. To address this, we developed a Bayesian mixture model that imputes missing SWC using both linear interpolation and an ecosystem water balance model (SOILWAT2), tested across six AmeriFlux eddy covariance tower sites in the New Mexico Elevation Gradient, demonstrating its effectiveness in reconstructing SWC patterns while providing insights into the factors driving SWC variability. Daily volumetric soil water content (SWC) data are provided as csv-formatted spreadsheets for the six AmeriFlux sites (US-Seg, US-Ses, US-Wjs, US-Mpi, US-Vcp, and US-Vcs). For each site there is an observed SWC file (site_SWC_gapfill.csv) and a file that contains imputed SWC (imputed_SWC_site.csv). The observed SWC files contain temperature corrected sensor values, tower precipitation data, as well as outputs from SOILWAT2 simulations that were used to impute SWC. The imputed files contain the original observed SWC values and the imputed missing SWC values. When SWC was missing from the original data, the missing value was imputed based on the Bayesian imputation mixture model. The posterior mean of all imputed values is reported as "mean_X". When the observed SWC was NOT missing, mean_X = observed SWC value (original data). The standard deviation, 2.5th percentile and the 97.5th percentile for the imputed values are also reported in the imputed files. There are readme text files for each file type explaining the contents of each column.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced prediction of terrestrial feedbacks to the coastal carbon cycle:using machine learning to improve sub-grid biogeochemical processes

Focal Areas: The paper aims to improve predictability of the coastal carbon cycle through improved model representation and quantification of the terrestrial feedbacks to aquatic ecosystems. The paper covers two focus areas, 1. Improved predictive modeling of terrestrial and aquatic biogeochemistry through ML-enabled surrogate models, and 2. Employing machine learning to integrate multimodal data sets collected across terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems at high spatial and temporal resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Root lateral interactions drive water uptake patterns under water limitation

The plasticity of root water uptake determines the maintenance of transpiration during periods of water limitation and drought. However, the mechanistic basis of plant water uptake, as well as the implications of water uptake strategies at the individual and ecosystem scale remain elusive. We model three-dimensional root water uptake under variably saturated conditions for a one-hectare temperate forest plot for a growing season with a pronounced mid-season dry period. Variations in root architecture, hydraulic properties, and degree of lateral interaction between root systems produce divergent local responses to water limitation and provide insights on individual and community response to meteorological conditions. Results demonstrate the plasticity of ecosystem-scale responses to surface drying, where interacting roots shift regions of active uptake to deeper soil layers with less abundant root biomass. These shifts, a product of both root system and soil hydraulic properties, illustrate intimate links between root and soil hydraulics in determining plant water sourcing. Furthermore, we demonstrate that root lateral interactions are beneficial at the ecosystem-scale, even when trees compete for water. Specifically, a more spatially extensive root system facilitates access to a larger soil water reservoir, often ameliorating water limitation and reducing sharp water potential gradients. While the reduction of water stress is a benefit, it can be offset by increased root construction and maintenance costs associated with the larger rooting system. A plausible “viability” region of root communal co-existence is therefore implied where competitive pressures and root production costs are balanced by a potential water benefit.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of Electro-chemical Battery Model for Plug-and-Play Eco-system Library

Energy storage components are fundamental to the concept of an Integrated Energy System (IES). They serve to store surplus energy during low-demand periods for later release when other IES components (i.e., Secondary Energy Source, Balance of Plant, etc.) would otherwise have to operate flexibly. This provision for storage avoids high-amplitude power ramps in these components thereby limiting thermal and mechanical stresses to their internals and providing for extended service life. This report describes a dynamic model that has been developed for an electrochemical battery. The lithium-ion (Li-ion) cell was selected as representative technology. The battery model was developed in the Dymola simulation environment and meets the requirements of the ecosystem plug-and-play library. The model accurately describes the electric dynamic response of a Li-ion battery for an imposed charging/discharging power profile. The corresponding physical limitations related to over-power scenarios, and the impact of the residual state of charge are accounted for in the model. A literature review of the major degradation processes affecting Li-ion batteries was performed. Given the purposes of the CTD-IES project, the progressive fade of the installed capacity, the reduction of the round-trip efficiency, and the limits on the number of charging/discharging cycles are aspects that need to be taken into account in techno-economic analyses. The modeling of these degradation phenomena becomes crucial when predictions over long time horizons (capacity expansion) are made. For each one of these phenomena, a brief description is given, and some figures to be implemented in the HERON optimization algorithm are presented.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The three major axes of terrestrial ecosystem function

The leaf economics spectrum and the global spectrum of plant forms and functions revealed fundamental axes of variation in plant traits, which represent different ecological strategies that are shaped by the evolutionary development of plant species. Ecosystem functions depend on environmental conditions and the traits of species that comprise the ecological communities. However, the axes of variation of ecosystem functions are largely unknown, which limits our understanding of how ecosystems respond as a whole to anthropogenic drivers, climate and environmental variability. Here we derive a set of ecosystem functions from a dataset of surface gas exchange measurements across major terrestrial biomes. We find that most of the variability within ecosystem functions (71.8%) is captured by three key axes. The first axis reflects maximum ecosystem productivity and is mostly explained by vegetation structure. The second axis reflects ecosystem water-use strategies and is jointly explained by variation in vegetation height and climate. The third axis, which represents ecosystem carbon-use efficiency, features a gradient related to aridity, and is explained primarily by variation in vegetation structure. We show that two state-of-the-art land surface models reproduce the first and most important axis of ecosystem functions. However, the models tend to simulate more strongly correlated functions than those observed, which limits their ability to accurately predict the full range of responses to environmental changes in carbon, water and energy cycling in terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Generalizing Microbial Parameters in Soil Biogeochemical Models: Insights From a Multi‐Site Incubation Experiment

Abstract Incorporating microbial processes into soil biogeochemical models has received growing interest. However, determining the parameters that govern microbially driven biogeochemical processes typically requires case‐specific model calibration in various soil and ecosystem types. Here each case refers to an independent and individual experimental unit subjected to repeated measurements. Using the Microbial‐ENzyme Decomposition model, this study aimed to test whether a common set of microbially‐relevant parameters (i.e., generalized parameters) could be obtained across multiple cases based on a two‐year incubation experiment in which soil samples of four distinct soil series (i.e., Coland, Kesswick, Westmoreland, and Etowah) collected from forest and grassland were subjected to cellulose or no cellulose amendment. Results showed that a common set of parameters controlling microbial growth and maintenance as well as extracellular enzyme production and turnover could be generalized at the soil series level but not land cover type. This indicates that microbial model developments need to prioritize soil series type over plant functional types when implemented across various sites. This study also suggests that, in addition to heterotrophic respiration and microbial biomass data, extracellular enzyme data sets are needed to achieve reliable microbial‐relevant parameters for large‐scale soil model projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Advancing Fissile Materials Production Modeling with Adaptive Computing Environment and Simulations (ACES)

The Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) provides advanced capabilities to simulate the uranium enrichment process to support international negotiations on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Uranium isotope separation centrifuges connected in a cascade configuration can produce the low-enriched uranium needed for nuclear power. However, those same centrifuges connected in a different configuration can also produce highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. Having the capability to assess cascade operations and identify nefarious activities promotes the peaceful uses of nuclear energy while restricting nuclear weapons proliferation. DNN R&D's Nonproliferation Stewardship Program Adaptive Computing Environment and Simulations (ACES) project is creating a modern, sustainable ecosystem of physics-based models and data-analytics tools that enables analysts to model uranium enrichment systems, simulate operational scenarios, and apply various policy options to explore potential outcomes.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Fusion of Multiple Models for Improving Gross Primary Production Estimation With Eddy Covariance Data Based on Machine Learning

Abstract Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) represents the magnitude of CO 2 uptake through vegetation photosynthesis, and is a key variable for carbon cycles between the biosphere and atmosphere. Light use efficiency (LUE) models have been widely used to estimate GPP for its physiological mechanisms and availability of data acquisition and implementation, yet each individual GPP model has exhibited large uncertainties due to input errors and model structure, and further studies of systematic validation, comparison, and fusion of those models with eddy covariance (EC) site data across diverse ecosystem types are still needed in order to further improve GPP estimation. We here compared and fused five GPP models (VPM, EC‐LUE, GOL‐PEM, CHJ, and C‐Fix) across eight ecosystems based on FLUXNET2015 data set using the ensemble methods of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF) separately. Our results showed that for individual models, EC‐LUE gave a better performance to capture interannual variability of GPP than other models, followed by VPM and GLO‐PEM, while CHJ and C‐Fix were more limited in their estimation performance. We found RF and SVM were superior to BMA on merging individual models at various plant functional types (PFTs) and at the scale of individual sites. On the basis of individual models, the fusion methods of BMA, SVM, and RF were examined by a five‐fold cross validation for each ecosystem type, and each method successfully improved the average accuracy of estimation by 8%, 18%, and 19%, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Coastal Wetland Carbon Sequestration in a Warmer Climate (Final Report)

Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon storage and locations where carbon and nitrogen cycles have a disproportionately large impact on land, water, and air in comparison to the area they occupy. The extremely high rates of carbon sequestration in these systems are the result of complex feedbacks between vegetation and the physical environment. The plant and microbial interactions that drive these feedbacks are absent in ecosystem- and global-scale Earth System models. The goal of this proposal was to address the uncertain response of the coastal carbon sink to climate change, a critical knowledge gap in coastal carbon research and a significant barrier to incorporating coastal wetlands into Earth System Models. The Salt Marsh Accretion Response to Temperature eXperiment (SMARTX) was designed to understand the ecosystem-scale consequences of warming and elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) in tidal wetlands at the coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface. We successfully designed and built a novel whole-ecosystem warming and eCO₂ experiment in a coastal wetland. The gradient design of the warming treatments (+0, +1.7, +3.4, +5.1 ⁰C) allowed us to discover unexpected non-linear and non-additive responses arising from plant-microbe interactions. We concluded that these non-linear responses to warming were the result of plants and microbes responding to temperature at different thresholds, with important consequences for forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and understanding global trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗