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DOE OSTI2021

Review of Swift Heavy Ion Irradiation Effects in CeO2

Cerium dioxide (CeO2) exhibits complex behavior when irradiated with swift heavy ions. Modifications to this material originate from the production of atomic-scale defects, which accumulate and induce changes to the microstructure, chemistry, and material properties. As such, characterizing its radiation response requires a wide range of complementary characterization techniques to elucidate the defect formation and stability over multiple length scales, such as X-ray and neutron scattering, optical spectroscopy, and electron microscopy. In this article, recent experimental efforts are reviewed in order to holistically assess the current understanding and knowledge gaps regarding the underlying physical mechanisms that dictate the response of CeO2 and related materials to irradiation with swift heavy ions. The recent application of novel experimental techniques has provided additional insight into the structural and chemical behavior of irradiation-induced defects, from the local, atomic-scale arrangement to the long-range structure. However, future work must carefully account for the influence of experimental conditions, with respect to both sample properties (e.g., grain size and impurity content) and ion-beam parameters (e.g., ion mass and energy), to facilitate a more direct comparison of experimental results.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

The ICRP, MELODI, and ALLIANCE workshop on effects of ionizing radiation exposure in offspring and next generations: a summary of discussions

Task Group 121 – Effects of ionizing radiation exposure in offspring and next generations – is a task group under the Committee 1 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), approved by the Main Commission on 18th November 2021. The main goals of Task Group 121 are to (1) review and update the scientific literature of relevance to radiation-related effects in the offspring of parent(s) exposed to ionizing radiation in both human and non-human biota; (2) to assess preconceptional and intrauterine effects of radiation exposure and related morbidity and mortality; and, (3) to provide advice about the level of evidence and how to consider these preconceptional and postconceptional effects in the system of radiological protection for humans and non-human biota. The Task Group is reviewing relevant literature since Publication 90 ‘Biological effects after prenatal irradiation (embryo and fetus)’ (2003) and will include radiation-related effects on future generations in humans, animals, and plants. This review will be conducted to account for the health effects on offspring and subsequent generations in the current system of radiological protection. Radiation detriment calculation will also be reviewed. Finally, preliminary recommendations will be made to update the integration of health effects in offspring and next generations in the system of radiological protection. A Workshop, jointly organized by ICRP Task Group 121 and European Radiation Protection Research Platforms MELODI and ALLIANCE was held in Budapest, Hungary, from 31st May to 2nd June 2022. Participants discussed four important topics: (1) hereditary and epigenetic effects due to exposure of the germ cell line (preconceptional exposure), (2) effects arising from exposure of the embryo and fetus (intrauterine exposure), (3) transgenerational effects on biota, and (4) its potential impact on the system of radiological protection. Based on the discussions and presentations during the breakout sessions, newer publications, and gaps on the current scientific literature were identified. For instance, there are some ongoing systematic reviews and radiation epidemiology reviews of intrauterine effects. There are newer methods of Monte Carlo simulation for fetal dosimetry, and advances in radiation genetics, epigenetics, and radiobiology studies. While the current impact of hereditary effects on the global detriment was reported as small, the questions surrounding the effects of radiation exposure on offspring and the next generation are crucial, recurring, and with a major focus on exposed populations. Here, this article summarizes the workshop discussions, presentations, and conclusions of each topic and introduces the special issue of the International Journal of Radiation Biology resulting from the discussions of the meeting.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of dust on rainfall over the Red Sea coast based on WRF-Chem model simulations

Water is the single most important element of life. Rainfall plays an important role in the spatial and temporal distribution of this precious natural resource, and it has a direct impact on agricultural production, daily life activities, and human health. One of the important elements that govern rainfall formation and distribution is atmospheric aerosol, which also affects the Earth's radiation balance and climate. Therefore, understanding how dust compositions and distributions affect the regional rainfall pattern is crucial, particularly in regions with high atmospheric dust loads such as the Middle East. Although aerosol and rainfall research has garnered increasing attention as both an independent and interdisciplinary topic in the last few decades, the details of various direct and indirect pathways by which dust affects rainfall are not yet fully understood. Here, we explored the effects of dust on rainfall formation and distribution as well as the physical mechanisms that govern these phenomena, using high-resolution WRF-Chem simulations (~1.5 km × 1.5 km) configured with an advanced double-moment cloud microphysics scheme coupled with a sectional eight-bin aerosol scheme. Our model-simulated results were realistic, as evaluated from multiple perspectives including vertical profiles of aerosol concentrations, aerosol size distributions, vertical profiles of air temperature, diurnal wind cycles, and spatio-temporal rainfall patterns. Rainfall over the Red Sea coast is mainly caused by warm rain processes, which are typically confined within a height of ~6 km over the Sarawat mountains and exhibit a strong diurnal cycle that peaks in the evening at approximately 18:00 local time under the influence of sea breezes. Numerical experiments indicated that dust could both suppress or enhance rainfall. The effect of dust on rainfall was calculated as total, indirect, and direct effects, based on 10-year August-average daily-accumulated rainfall over the study domain covering the eastern Red Sea coast. For extreme rainfall events (domain-average daily-accumulated rainfall of ≥ 1.33 mm), the net effect of dust on rainfall was positive or enhancement (6.05 %), with the indirect effect (4.54 %) and direct effect (1.51 %) both causing rainfall increase. At a 5 % significance level, the total and indirect effects were statistically significant whereas the direct effect was not. For normal rainfall events (domain-average daily-accumulated rainfall < 1.33 mm), the indirect effect enhanced rainfall (4.76 %) whereas the direct effect suppressed rainfall (-5.78 %), resulting in a negative net suppressing effect (-1.02 %), all of which were statistically significant. We investigated the possible physical mechanisms of the effects and found that the rainfall suppression by dust direct effects was mainly caused by the scattering of solar radiation by dust. The surface cooling induced by dust weakens the sea breeze circulation, which decreases the associated landward moisture transport, ultimately suppressing rainfall. For extreme rainfall events, dust causes net rainfall enhancement through indirect effects as the high dust concentration facilitates raindrops to grow when the water vapor is sufficiently available. Our results have broader scientific and environmental implications. Specifically, although dust is considered a problem from an air quality perspective, our results highlight the important role of dust on sea breeze circulation and associated rainfall over the Red Sea coastal regions. Our results also have implications for cloud seeding and water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effective viscosities in a hydrodynamically expanding boost-invariant QCD plasma

Background: The near-equilibrium properties of a QCD plasma can be encoded into transport coefficients such as bulk and shear viscosity. In QCD, the ratio of these transport coefficients to entropy density, ζ/$\textit{s}$ and η/$\textit{s}$, depends nontrivially on the plasma's temperature. This is unlike in conformal systems where they take constant values such as η/$\textit{s}$ = 1/(4π). Purpose: In this work, we show that in a (0 + 1)D boost-invariant fluid with no transverse expansion, a temperature-dependent ζ/$\textit{s(T)}$ or η/$\textit{s(T)}$ can be described by an equivalent effective viscosity $\langleζ/s\rangle_{\text{eff}}$ or $\langleη/s\rangle_{\text{eff}}$. This effective viscosity combines the actual temperature-dependent ζ/$\textit{s(T)}$ or η/$\textit{s(T)}$ with the temperature profile of the fluid. Further, we extend the concept of effective viscosity in systems with transverse expansion and discuss how effective viscosities can be used to identify families of ζ/$\textit{s(T)}$ and η /$\textit{s(T)}$ that lead to similar hydrodynamic evolution. Methods: The Navier-Stokes relativistic hydrodynamic equations are used to provide a first definition of effective viscosity, in (0 + 1)D and (1 + 1)D. In the (0 + 1)D case, the analysis is extended to Israel-Stewart-type second-order hydrodynamics to clarify the effect of higher-order hydrodynamics corrections on the effective viscosity. Results: In a boost-invariant fluid with no transverse expansion [(0 + 1)D], the effective viscosity is expressed as a simple integral of ζ/$\textit{s(T)}$ or η/$\textit{s(T)}$ over temperature, with a weight determined by the speed of sound of the fluid. The result is general for any equation of state with a moderate temperature dependence of the speed of sound, including the QCD equation of state. This definition of effective viscosity can be used to identify infinite families of ζ/$\textit{s(T)}$ or η/$\textit{s(T)}$ that produce essentially indistinguishable temperature profiles. In a boost-invariant cylindrical system [(1 + 1)D], a similar definition of effective viscosity is obtained in terms of characteristic trajectories in time and transverse direction. This leads to an infinite number of constraints on an infinite functional space for ζ/$\textit{s(T)}$ and η/$\textit{s(T)}$. Realistic examples are presented by using a finite number of constraints on a finite functional space. Conclusions: The definition of effective viscosity in a (0 + 1)D system clarifies how infinite families of ζ/$\textit{s(T)}$ and η/$\textit{s(T)}$ can result in nearly identical hydrodynamic temperature profiles. By extending the study to a boost-invariant cylindrical [(1 + 1)D] fluid, we identify an approximate but more general definition of effective viscosity that highlights the potential and limits of the concept of effective viscosity in fluids with limited symmetries.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Group size mediates effects of intraspecific competition and forest structure on productivity in a recovering social woodpecker population

Conservation of endangered social wildlife in disturbance-prone forests is challenging because direct and indirect effects of management strategies developed at the time of species’ listing when population density is low may change under high-density conditions in locally recovered populations. Here, we used piecewise structural equation modeling to evaluate direct and indirect drivers of productivity in the federally endangered cooperatively breeding red-cockaded woodpecker Dryobates borealis (RCW) on Savannah River Site, South Carolina, USA. We estimated direct and indirect relationships among group size, neighboring group sizes, fledgling production, density of cavity tree clusters occupied by RCWs, area satisfying threshold criteria of ≥22 stems ha –1 of pines ≥35.6 cm diameter at breast height (dbh), <1.4 m 2 ha –1 basal area (BA) of hardwoods 7.6–22.9 cm dbh, and <6% hardwood canopy cover, and area treated with prescribed fire, and tested whether group size mediated indirect effects of area satisfying threshold criteria on fledgling production. Increases in area with ≥22 stems ha –1 of pines ≥35.6 cm dbh and <1.4 m 2 ha –1 BA of hardwoods 7.6–22.9 cm dbh, and area treated with prescribed fire, but not area with <6% hardwood canopy cover, had direct positive effects on group size. Group size and area treated with prescribed fire, but not area satisfying threshold criteria, had direct positive effects on fledgling production. The direct effect of neighboring group sizes on fledgling production was negative and smaller relative to the direct positive effect of group size on fledgling production. Overall, our results indicate positive direct effects of group size on fledgling production outweighed negative direct effects of neighboring group sizes, and that group size mediated positive indirect effects of area satisfying structural threshold criteria on fledgling production. These findings indicate that ongoing forest management aimed to increase area with ≥22 pines ha –1 ≥35.6 cm dbh and <1.4 m 2 ha –1 BA of hardwoods 7.6–22.9 cm dbh will promote large group sizes, which in turn improve fledgling production and offset costs of heightened competition with neighboring groups under high-density conditions. Additionally, positive effects of area treated with prescribed fire on RCW group size and fledgling production indicate prescribed fire has unique contributions to woodpecker productivity, likely via direct effects on forest structure and potentially indirect effects on arthropod prey available to foraging RCWs. Furthermore, by simultaneously accounting for multiple drivers of productivity in social wildlife, our study contributes to the understanding of how increases in social wildlife population sizes can alter previously documented habitat-fitness relationships.

prescribed fire↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Ultrasonic Acoustic Deterrent in Reducing Bat Fatalities at Wind Energy Facilities

This project was designed to use thermal video cameras and fatality monitoring to evaluate the effectiveness of an ultrasonic acoustic deterrent (UAD) on bat activity and mortality, respectively. Our goals were to redesign the UAD device and installation infrastructure, determine the placement on wind turbines to optimize safety, compatibility and functionality, and to compare the mortality among the following conditions: Control (deterrents off and turbines feathered up to the manufacturer’s cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s), Deterrent (deterrents on and turbines feathered up to the manufacturer’s cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s), Curtailment (deterrents off and turbines feathered up to 5/ m/s), and combination (deterrents on and turbines feathered up to 5 m/s). The project was divided into a Feasibility Study and Comparative Study. The objectives for the Feasibility Study were to develop an installation strategy, redesign a previous iteration of a UAD to improve performance and weatherization, and test the effectiveness of the deterrents on bat activity. The Feasibility Study was intended to work out potential issues using a relatively small number of devices prior to manufacturing and installing numerous devices for a larger-scale comparative study. The division of the project into these separate studies was based on previous experience and the challenges of assessing the capabilities of an untested UAD. During the initial development and manufacturing of the UAD, NRG Systems decided to use a piezoelectric transducer rather than an electrostatic transducer, which was used by a previous device (i.e. Deaton UAD). NRG Systems conducted lab testing (i.e., IP67 or Ingress Protection) to ensure no water or dust ingress. In addition, shock/drop trials and variations in temperature exposure were conducted as part of the reliability testing. NRG Systems also developed a communications system to allow for continuous performance monitoring of the UADs. For the Feasibility Study, we installed 6 UADs on each of 2 Gamesa G90 2-MW wind turbines (Turbine 14 and 8) at the South Chestnut Wind Energy Facility, Pennsylvania and monitored activity under control and treatment (i.e. Deterrent) conditions using thermal video monitoring. There are two major sources of variation in bat activity (beyond the anticipated treatment effect): 1) environment around the turbines might inherently favor more activity at one than the other; 2) weather conditions on any given night or within season difference (e.g., migration later during the study period) might favor more activity on some nights than on other nights. Because we could only monitor two turbines on any night, we sought to control the potential influences of these two sources by alternating the turbine on which deterrents were activated each night. If there were no loss of data due to technical failures, this design would result in an equal number of deterrent and control nights at each turbine through the monitoring period, balancing the effects of both sources of variation. We compared the time bats spent and the number of events that occurred in overlapping cameras FOV as an indicator of risk, since 80% of the overlapping FOV of the cameras was in the RSA. Equipment failures, majority due to lightning, resulted in only 17 nights with useable data, with unbalanced treatment assignment within turbines and uneven distribution of treatment assignment throughout the observational period. This resulted in a confounding of treatment assignment and seasonal change. Deterrent treatment was measured at Turbine 14 on only 2 of the first 8 usable nights (spanning the period from 8/18-9/17), whereas 6 times on Turbine 8. From 9/18-927, deterrent was on at Turbine 14 on 6 of the remaining 10 nights, and 4 on Turbine 8. We recorded a total of 1,057 bats and observed a reduction in number of events and duration of events at the UAD-activated turbine when it was Turbine 14. When Turbine 8 had the UAD activated, we observed no difference in number or duration of events. Variation between turbines is not unusual and can cause issues when study designs have no true replication, i.e., multiple turbines per treatment. Within-turbine differences suggested a trend for reduced activity when UADs were activated, particularly for Turbine 14. These results may be caused by the overall higher bat activity at Turbine 8 and confounding of treatment assignment and seasonal trends. We mapped 58 bat events in 3-dimensional space (3D), 30 and 28 events during control and treatment conditions, respectively. We observed bats crossing the rotor plane under both control and treatment conditions and observed a total of 40 confirmed or near-collisions (i.e., target close to blade but no visual confirmation of a strike) out of a total of 1,491 medium and high confidence bat observations (880 control, 611 at treatment). Twice as many collisions/possible collisions were observed during control conditions. Given the challenges with the equipment and potential confounding of the data (i.e., different activity levels at the two wind turbines), we were unable to determine whether this initial turbine placement and orientation was optimal. Given no new information on how best to install the devices, we elected to use the same placement and orientation for the comparative study. For the Comparative Study, the objectives were to investigate the relative mortality rates among 4 treatments. We searched the area within 90 m of each turbine daily to recover the highest number of fresh fatalities possible. We were unable to detect a clear reduction in mortality from deterrents alone for any individual species. Surprisingly, mortality rate of the eastern red bat (Lasiurus borealis) was estimated to be 1.3–4.2 times as much when turbines were operating normally and UADs were on than when UADs were off. Reduction in mortality of all bat species combined due to curtailment of turbines was estimated to be between 0%–38%. This effect was nullified when, in addition to curtailment, UADs were on, with 95% confidence interval ranging from a 45% reduction to a 36% increase in mortality. This was likely due to the large proportion of eastern red bats in the total carcass population. Mortality of all low-frequency echolocating bats combined (i.e. hoary bat [L. cinereus], big brown bat [Eptesicus fuscus], silver-haired bat [Lasionycteris noctivagans]) relative to control was lower when curtailed (95% CI: 0%–74%), but the addition of UADs had no detectable effect (95%CI: 13%–79%). The combined treatment reduced mortality in silver-haired bats relative to control by 11%–99%, compared to curtailment (81% reduction–67% increase) or deterrent (82% reduction–67% increase) alone. Because silver-haired bats comprised a large proportion of low-frequency calling bats found during this study, a similar effect was seen for that group. The higher mortality observed for eastern red bats at UAD compared to control could have been caused by several factors, such as the effective range of the UAD, particularly at higher frequencies, behavior, positioning of the devices on the nacelle, or a combination of these. We used 3D thermal videography to compare control and UAD bat behavior from two turbines using a total of 203 3D bat-tracks across 34 nights. We recorded a similar number of bat-tracks between treatment groups, with 51% and 49% for control and UAD, respectively. Due to potential differences in bat behavior around spinning vs stationary turbine blades, we examined UAD effectiveness separately for non-operating turbines (feathered below cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s) and operating (normal operation above wind speed of 3.5 m/s). We found a higher proportion of bat-tracks at operating turbines (82%) compared to non-operating turbines (18%), although this does not account for overall time turbines were operating versus not. At non-operating turbines the UAD appears to be effective at reducing the amount of time, flight length, and number of passes through the rotor plane, compared to control. In addition, we found bats approached turbines similarly between control and treatment turbines, with 61% of control and 63% of UAD bat-tracks originating leeward of the hub. In contrast, at operating turbines, we saw little change in bat behavior in response to UADs. For example, we found an increase in the average duration of bat-tracks between non-operating and operating turbines for UAD but at control turbines we found average duration decreased once turbines became operational. Both control and UAD had a high proportion of bat-tracks that crossed the rotor plane (i.e., collision risk) originate from the windward side when turbines were operational 65% to 92%, respectively. Given that the UAD devices closest to the blades were orientated parallel to the blades, its possible bats were not exposed to the signal until they were close to the turbine blades, as suggested by the slightly higher mean duration within 5 meters of the blades for UAD turbines. Future research should consider concentrating UAD intensity on the areas of risk (i.e. blades) with enough buffer to allow bats to react to the sound before entering the rotor-swept area (RSA). In addition, investigating the potential of installing UAD units windward of the turbine blades (e.g. a hub-mounted UAD), particularly since even under control conditions, a relatively high proportion (65%) of crosses through the blade plane originated windward. 3D thermal videography provided valuable information on future testing strategies (e.g. device placement, UAD orientation) to improve UAD effectiveness when bats are at risk (i.e., operating wind turbines). Across the entire project we experienced issues with the operation and communication with the UADs. Most of the issues occurred during the Feasibility Study and were resolved prior to the Comparability Study. Additional challenges surfaced during the Comparability Study but were remedied immediately and are thought to have little impact on the results. We had logistical constraints at the project that limited our ability use traditional methods in our camera calibration. Several calibrations showed inaccurate scales, which may have been related to inadequate spatial coverage of “points” in the camera calibration volume. Because we were using actual video recordings of bats at a wind turbine, the behavior of bats could have concentrated “points” in specific areas of the turbine (i.e. leeward of nacelle), and limited “points” in other areas, resulting in camera calibration issues. We have plans to address these inconsistencies and improving the software and related methodologies by early 2020.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Comparison of the Environmental Effects of Open-Loop and Closed-Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower

Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capabilities are generally characterized as either open-loop or closed-loop. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) defines open-loop PSH as “continuously connected to a naturally flowing water feature,” and closed-loop PSH as “not continuously connected to a naturally flowing water feature.” All the PSH projects constructed in the United States to date are open-loop, so the potential environmental effects of closed-loop systems are not as well documented as the effects of open-loop systems. To address this knowledge gap, the DOE Water Power Technologies Office, under its HydroWIRES Initiative, has prepared this report to: (1) compare the potential environmental effects of open-loop PSH projects with those of closed-loop PSH projects; (2) describe how these effects are being avoided, minimized, or mitigated at existing projects in other countries and proposed projects in the United States; and (3) discuss the relative significance of the environmental issues. The report begins with a brief introduction on the current status of PSH development in the United States. Next, the report describes the current Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) hydropower licensing process, emphasizing some recent regulatory changes that affect closed-loop PSH development. The report then provides a summary comparison of the environmental effects of constructing and operating open-loop and closed-loop PSH systems and discusses the relative significance of those issues. This comparison and discussion are based on the results of a literature review and a review of FERC licensing records. The literature review includes journal articles, technical reports, and presentations on the environmental effects of PSH systems. It includes literature from the United States as well as countries where closed-loop PSH projects have been constructed. The FERC records review examines the FERC licensing record (e.g., National Environmental Policy Act documents and license orders) to identify the environmental effects anticipated and mitigation measures proposed for six of the closed-loop PSH projects currently licensed or permitted in the United States. For comparison, the FERC records review also discusses the environmental effects and mitigation measures for four open-loop PSH projects proposed or currently operating in the United States. The comparison of effects between open-loop and closed-loop projects is relative; that is, it characterizes the impacts of each project type as generally lower or higher than another project type. The comparison reflects general trends among project types because there are sometimes exceptions to the examples cited. The comparison is based on both spatial (location) and temporal (duration) factors and reflects both the severity and likelihood of effects. The report concludes that the environmental effects of closed-loop PSH projects are generally lower (i.e., more localized and of shorter duration) than those of open-loop PSH projects because they are located “off-stream,” minimizing aquatic and terrestrial impacts, and often have greater siting flexibility than open-loop PSH projects. For certain closed-loop project designs, however, impacts to groundwater may be higher relative to open-loop projects and should be considered in any environmental review.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distances to Prompt Effects for a Nuclear Device

In 2010, nuclear weapon effects experts at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) were asked to provide a quick reference document containing estimated prompt nuclear effects. This report is an update to the 2010 document that includes updated model assumptions. This report addresses only the prompt effects associated with a nuclear detonation (e.g., blast, thermal fluence, and prompt ionizing radiation). The potential medium- and longer-term health effects associated with nuclear fallout are not considered in this report because, in part, of the impracticality of making generic estimates given the high dependency of fallout predictions on the local meteorological conditions at the time of the event. The results included in this report also do not consider the urban environment (e.g., shielding by or collapse of structures) which may affect the extent of prompt effects. It is important to note that any operational recommendations made using the estimates in this report are limited by the generic assumptions considered in the analysis and should not replace analyses made for a specific scenario/device. Furthermore, nuclear effects experts (John Hogan, SNL, and Byron Ristvet, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)) have indicated that the accuracy of effects predictions below 0.5 kilotons (kT) or 500 tons nuclear yield have greater uncertainty because of the limited data available for the prompt effects in this regime. The Specialized Hazard Assessment Response Capability (SHARC) effects prediction tool was used for these analyses. Specifically, the NUKE model within SHARC 2021 Version 10.2 was used. NUKE models only the prompt effects following a nuclear detonation. The algorithms for predicting range-to-output data contained within the NUKE model are primarily based on nuclear test effects data. Probits have been derived from nuclear test data and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) protective action guides. Probits relate the probability of a hazard (e.g., fatality or injury) caused by a given insult (e.g., overpressure, thermal fluence, dose level). Several probits have been built into SHARC to determine the fatality and injury associated with a given level of insult. Some of these probits differ with varying yield. Such probits were used to develop the tables and plots in this report.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

DeepPhenoMem V1.0: deep learning modelling of canopy greenness dynamics accounting for multi-variate meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology

Abstract. Vegetation phenology plays a key role in controlling the seasonality of ecosystem processes that modulate carbon, water and energy fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere. Accurate modelling of vegetation phenology in the interplay of Earth's surface and the atmosphere is thus crucial to understand how the coupled system will respond to and shape climatic changes. Phenology is controlled by meteorological conditions at different timescales: on the one hand, changes in key meteorological variables (temperature, water, radiation) can have immediate effects on the vegetation development; on the other hand, phenological changes can be driven by past environmental conditions, known as memory effects. However, the processes governing meteorological memory effects on phenology are not completely understood, resulting in their limited performance of vegetation phenology represented in land surface models. A deep learning model, specifically a long short-term memory network (LSTM), has the potential to capture and model the meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology. Here, we apply the LSTM to model the vegetation phenology using meteorological drivers and high-temporal-resolution canopy greenness observations through digital repeat photography by the PhenoCam network. We compare a multiple linear regression model, a no-memory-effect LSTM model and a full-memory-effect LSTM model to predict the whole seasonal greenness trajectory and the corresponding phenological transition dates across 50 sites and 317 site years during 2009–2018, covering deciduous broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands. Results show that the deep learning model outperforms the multiple linear regression model, and the full-memory-effect LSTM model performs better than the no-memory-effect model for all three plant function types (median R2 of 0.878, 0.957 and 0.955 for broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands). We also find that the full-memory-effect LSTM model is capable of predicting the seasonal dynamic variations of canopy greenness and reproducing trends in shifting phenological transition dates. We also performed a sensitivity analysis of the full-memory-effect LSTM model to assess its plausibility, revealing its coherence with established knowledge of vegetation phenology sensitivity to meteorological conditions, particularly changes in temperature. Our study highlights that (1) multi-variate meteorological memory effects play a crucial role in vegetation phenology, and (2) deep learning opens up new avenues for improving the representation of vegetation phenological processes in land surface models via a hybrid modelling approach.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet Contribution to Sea‐Level Change Through 2300 by Capturing Gravitational, Rotational, and Deformational Effects

Ice-mass change induces regionally varying patterns of sea-level change due to gravitational, rotational, and deformational (GRD) effects, which in turn influence marine-based ice stability in Antarctica. For improved projection of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), there is a need for including GRD effects in modeling and improving understanding of basin-by-basin sensitivity of ice evolution to GRD effects under a range of climate scenarios. We couple a high-resolution, higher-order ice-sheet model with a 1D global sea-level model that fully captures GRD effects, and simulate ice evolution in Antarctica under the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 experiments. We perform two sets of coupled simulations incorporating 1D Maxwell solid Earth structure suitable for West and East Antarctica and show that the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) in West Antarctica has the highest sensitivity to GRD effects—in high-emission scenarios, grounding-line retreat accelerates by hundreds of kilometers by 2300 without GRD effects, but GRD effects delay this retreat on a timescale of decades. However, we find that delay times do not show a clear relationship to the strength of climate forcing alone. Furthermore, GRD effects can influence ice-sheet dynamics more than the choice of climate model for a given emissions scenario. In contrast, East Antarctica exhibits minimal sensitivity to GRD effects throughout the study period. These findings underscore the critical role of GRD effects in shaping future West AIS evolution, highlighting the importance of constraining the regional 3D Earth structure and bed topography in West Antarctica, particularly the ASE.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancement of ECCD by the current condensation effect for stabilizing large magnetic islands caused by neoclassical tearing modes in tokamak plasmas

The radio frequency current condensation effect reported in Reiman and Fisch (2018 Phys. Rev. Lett. 121 225001) is modeled in the nonlinear resistive magnetohydrodynamic code. A series of numerical investigations have been performed to investigate the enhancement of electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) by the current condensation effect during the control of neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) in tokamak plasmas. In the numerical model, both the parallel transport and the perpendicular transport of electron temperature are considered. The EC driven current and driven perturbed electron temperature can nonlinearly evolve within the given magnetic configuration and eventually reach saturation states. The input power threshold of ECCD and the fold bifurcation phenomenon are numerically verified via nonlinear simulations. The numerical results show good agreements with the analytical results. Moreover, spatial distributions of EC current for the two solutions at different condensed level are displayed. The control effectiveness of ECCD for large NTM islands has been evaluated while considering the current condensation effect. While taking into account current condensation effect, for a sufficiently large input power, a larger island can be more effectively stabilized than a smaller one, which suggests a reassessment of the previous idea that the ECCD should always be turned on as early as possible. The potential physics mechanism behind the ECCD control have all been discussed in detail. Furthermore, the condensation effect is found to have favorable effects on the radial misalignment of ECCD. In the consideration of the situation for extremely localized control needs, a highly peaked heating profile is adopted to verify that the fold bifurcation phenomenon still exists and the current condensation effect can still take effect in this extreme condition.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effective Mass from Seebeck Coefficient

Abstract Engineering semiconductor devices requires an understanding of the effective mass of electrons and holes. Effective masses have historically been determined in metals at cryogenic temperatures estimated using measurements of the electronic specific heat. Instead, by combining measurements of the Seebeck and Hall effects, a density of states effective mass can be determined in doped semiconductors at room temperature and above. Here, a simple method to calculate the electron effective mass using the Seebeck coefficient and an estimate of the free electron or hole concentration, such as that determined from the Hall effect, is introduced here is the Seebeck effective mass, n H is the charge carrier concentration measured by the Hall effect ( n H = 1/ eR H , R H is Hall resistance) in 10 20 cm −3 , T is the absolute temperature in K, S is the Seebeck coefficient, and k B / e = 86.3 μV K −1 . This estimate of the effective mass can aid the understanding and engineering of the electronic structure as it is largely independent of scattering and the effects of microstructure (grain boundary resistance). It is particularly helpful in characterizing thermoelectric materials.

Snyder, Gerald Jeffrey↗
DOE OSTI2022

Beneficial effect of surfactant in adsorption/desorption of lignocellulose-degrading enzymes on/from lignin with different structure

Nonionic surfactant Tween 80 is effective in alleviating the adsorption of lignocellulose-degrading enzymes onto lignin. However, the impacts of lignin structural characteristics on this mitigation effect of Tween 80 were still not clear. Herein, effects of Tween 80 on cellulase and xylanase adsorption on different enzymatic residual lignins (ERLs) and poplar samples were investigated. Besides, effects of Tween 80 on desorption of the two enzyme preparations from different ERLs and poplar samples were also evaluated. By adding Tween 80, the inhibition of ERLs to cellulase hydrolysis was offset and the positive role of Tween 80 in Avicel hydrolysis with presence of ERLs was more effective. Binding strength of cellulase with ERLs was alleviated from 236.0 – 410.9 to 43.9 – 116.6 mL/g after adding 0.5 mg/mL Tween 80. When ERLs was more hydrophobic and had more condensed phenolic OH, the alleviation effect of Tween 80 on cellulase adsorption on ERLs was intensified but its positive effect on enhancing cellulase desorption was weakened. Tween 80 was effective in increasing xylanase activity and preventing xylanase deactivation. Further, with the increase of lignin content and phenolic OH in pretreated poplar, the effect of Tween 80 in alleviating xylanase adsorption on poplar samples was intensified but the effect in enhancing xylanase desorption from poplar samples was weakened. The results provided distinct findings to understand the interaction between Tween 80 and cellulase/xylanase in enzymatic saccharification of lignocelluloses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Developing expert scientific consensus on the environmental and societal effects of marine artificial structures prior to decommissioning

Thousands of artificial (‘human-made’) structures are present in the marine environment, many at or approaching end-of-life and requiring urgent decisions regarding their decommissioning. No consensus has been reached on which decommissioning option(s) result in optimal environmental and societal outcomes, in part, owing to a paucity of evidence from real-world decommissioning case studies. To address this significant challenge, we asked a worldwide panel of scientists to provide their expert opinion. They were asked to identify and characterise the ecosystem effects of artificial structures in the sea, their causes and consequences, and to identify which, if any, should be retained following decommissioning. Experts considered that most of the pressures driving ecological and societal effects from marine artificial structures (MAS) were of medium severity, occur frequently, and are dependent on spatial scale with local-scale effects of greater magnitude than regional effects. The duration of many effects following decommissioning were considered to be relatively short, in the order of days. Overall, environmental effects of structures were considered marginally undesirable, while societal effects marginally desirable. Experts therefore indicated that any decision to leave MAS in place at end-of-life to be more beneficial to society than the natural environment. However, some individual environmental effects were considered desirable and worthy of retention, especially in certain geographic locations, where structures can support improved trophic linkages, increases in tourism, habitat provision, and population size, and provide stability in population dynamics. The expert analysis consensus that the effects of MAS are both negative and positive for the environment and society, gives no strong support for policy change whether removal or retention is favoured until further empirical evidence is available to justify change to the status quo. The combination of desirable and undesirable effects associated with MAS present a significant challenge for policy- and decision-makers in their justification to implement decommissioning options. Decisions may need to be decided on a case-by-case basis accounting for the trade-off in costs and benefits at a local level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗