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DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998–2018

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES) data from 1998 through 2018 and (2) maintenance unavailability (UA) performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2018. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in NRC probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed are: sub-component, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. A statistically significant increasing trend was identified in the frequency of FTLR demands for emergency power system (EPS) and high pressure core spray (HPCS) EDGs and a statistically significant decreasing trend was identified in the frequency of run > 1H hours for EPS and HPCS EDGs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Characterizing Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Designs

NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has the task of estimating the aleatory (randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty of launch vehicle loss of mission and crew risk, and communicating the results. Launch vehicles are complex engineered systems designed with sophisticated subsystems that are built to work together to accomplish mission success. Some of these systems or subsystems are in the form of heritage equipment, while some have never been previously launched. For these cases, characterizing the epistemic uncertainty is of foremost importance, and it is anticipated that the epistemic uncertainty of a modified launch vehicle design versus a design of well understood heritage equipment would be greater. For reasons that will be discussed, standard uncertainty propagation methods using Monte Carlo simulation produce counter intuitive results, and significantly underestimate epistemic uncertainty for launch vehicle models. Furthermore, standard PRA methods, such as Uncertainty-Importance analyses used to identify components that are significant contributors to uncertainty, are rendered obsolete, since sensitivity to uncertainty changes are not reflected in propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo methods. This paper provides a basis of the uncertainty underestimation for complex systems and especially, due to nuances of launch vehicle logic, for launch vehicles. It then suggests several alternative methods for estimating uncertainty and provides examples of estimation results. Lastly, the paper describes how to implement an Uncertainty-Importance analysis using one alternative approach, describes the results, and suggests ways to reduce epistemic uncertainty by focusing on additional data or testing of selected components.

Novack, Steven D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Characterizing Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Designs

NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has the task of estimating the aleatory (randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty of launch vehicle loss of mission and crew risk and communicating the results. Launch vehicles are complex engineered systems designed with sophisticated subsystems that are built to work together to accomplish mission success. Some of these systems or subsystems are in the form of heritage equipment, while some have never been previously launched. For these cases, characterizing the epistemic uncertainty is of foremost importance, and it is anticipated that the epistemic uncertainty of a modified launch vehicle design versus a design of well understood heritage equipment would be greater. For reasons that will be discussed, standard uncertainty propagation methods using Monte Carlo simulation produce counter intuitive results and significantly underestimate epistemic uncertainty for launch vehicle models. Furthermore, standard PRA methods such as Uncertainty-Importance analyses used to identify components that are significant contributors to uncertainty are rendered obsolete since sensitivity to uncertainty changes are not reflected in propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo methods.This paper provides a basis of the uncertainty underestimation for complex systems and especially, due to nuances of launch vehicle logic, for launch vehicles. It then suggests several alternative methods for estimating uncertainty and provides examples of estimation results. Lastly, the paper shows how to implement an Uncertainty-Importance analysis using one alternative approach, describes the results, and suggests ways to reduce epistemic uncertainty by focusing on additional data or testing of selected components.

Novack, Steven D.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Recommendations on Use of Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Electrical, Electronic, and Electromechanical (EEE) Parts for NASA Missions

The NASA Electronic Parts & Packaging Program Manager, requested a NASA Engineering and Safety Center independent assessment to summarize Commercial Crew Program and NASA Centers’ current and best practices, and lessons learned, on use of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) for all mission risk classifications, and provide recommendations that could lead to future NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging Program and/or Agency guidance on COTS parts. This document contains the outcome of the assessment.

Commercial-Off-The-Shelf↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System Safety Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model-Based Engineering (REV B)

The emergence of model-based engineering is transforming design and analysis methodologies. A recognized benefit of model-based engineering is the existence of a “single source of truth” about the system that becomes the authoritative source of data and information for designers, analysts, and developers. This promotes consistency and efficiency as the design emerges and can be used to further optimize the design. Integrating System Safety Engineers to the “single source of truth” will ensure that the outputs of their assessments and analyses are relevant to the design as it evolves. Use of an integrated system model enables near immediate evaluation of a design change as well as development of operational processes for risk assessment and communication. Such models can enable efficient and timely analysis of system hazards (e.g., hazard fault tree analysis and procedure simulations) and produce complete, accurate, and more consistent products (e.g., hazard reports and safety requirement evaluations). Therefore, an agency-sponsored team at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) recently completed a System Safety Study of modeling and testing capabilities as part of a Model-Based Safety and Mission Assurance Initiative (MBSMAI). Using an existing model developed for reliability analyses, GSFC modeling and system safety experts performed system safety analysis/modeling and produced safety products. The team evaluated model-based feasibility to support System Safety Engineering, developed safety analysis modeling processes, and identified tool capability advancement/development needs. These study results indicate model-based engineering is valid and useable for System Safety Engineering for NASA if adequate modeling processes and environment are established.

NASA↗

NASA NTRS2011

Shuttle Propulsion System Major Events and the Final 22 Flights

Numerous lessons have been documented from the Space Shuttle Propulsion elements. Major events include loss of the Solid Rocket Boosters (SRB's) on STS-4 and shutdown of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) during ascent on STS-51F. On STS-112 only half the pyrotechnics fired during release of the vehicle from the launch pad, a testament for redundancy. STS-91 exhibited freezing of a main combustion chamber pressure measurement and on STS-93 nozzle tube ruptures necessitated a low liquid level oxygen cut off of the main engines. A number of on pad aborts were experienced during the early program resulting in delays. And the two accidents, STS-51L and STS-107, had unique heritage in history from early program decisions and vehicle configuration. Following STS-51L significant resources were invested in developing fundamental physical understanding of solid rocket motor environments and material system behavior. And following STS-107, the risk of ascent debris was better characterized and controlled. Situational awareness during all mission phases improved, and the management team instituted effective risk assessment practices. The last 22 flights of the Space Shuttle, following the Columbia accident, were characterized by remarkable improvement in safety and reliability. Numerous problems were solved in addition to reduction of the ascent debris hazard. The Shuttle system, though not as operable as envisioned in the 1970's, successfully assembled the International Space Station (ISS). By the end of the program, the remarkable Space Shuttle Propulsion system achieved very high performance, was largely reusable, exhibited high reliability, and was a heavy lift earth to orbit propulsion system. During the program a number of project management and engineering processes were implemented and improved. Technical performance, schedule accountability, cost control, and risk management were effectively managed and implemented. Award fee contracting was implemented to provide performance incentives. The Certification of Flight Readiness and Mission Management processes became very effective. A key to the success of the propulsion element projects was related to relationships between the MSFC project office and support organizations with their counterpart contractor organizations. The teams worked diligently to understand and satisfy requirements and achieve mission success.

Owen, James W.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System Safety Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model-Based Engineering

The emergence of model-based engineering is transforming design and analysis methodologies [5]. A recognized benefit of model-based engineering is the existence of a “single source of truth” about the system that becomes the authoritative source of data and information for designers, analysts, and developers. This promotes consistency and efficiency as the design emerges and can be used to further optimize the design. Integrating System Safety Engineers to the “single source of truth” will ensure that the outputs of their assessments and analyses are relevant to the design as it evolves. Use of an integrated system model enables near immediate evaluation of a design change as well as development of operational processes for risk assessment and communication. Such models can enable efficient and timely analysis of system hazards (e.g., hazard fault tree analysis and procedure simulations) and produce complete, accurate, and more consistent products (e.g., hazard reports and safety requirement evaluations). Therefore, an agency-sponsored team at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) recently completed a System Safety Study of modeling and testing capabilities as part of a Model-Based Safety and Mission Assurance Initiative (MBSMAI). Using an existing model developed for reliability analyses [1], GSFC modeling and system safety experts performed system safety analysis/modeling and produced safety products. The team evaluated model-based feasibility to support System Safety Engineering, developed safety analysis modeling processes, and identified tool capability advancement/development needs. These study results indicate model-based engineering is valid and useable for System

NASA↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System Safety Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model Based Engineering

Model Based Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enhancing Risk Analysis of Accidental Release Using CFD Modeling and Machine Learning

This project report presents the results from the AU31 project that is entitled “Enhancing Risk Analysis of Accidental Release Using CFD Modeling and Machine Learning” performed between FY2021 and FY2022. The technical objective of this project is to enhance risk analysis of accidental release of radioactive materials and provide novel risk forecasting and capabilities for assessing unplanned hazardous chemical releases for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The approach includes a cross-platform finite element analysis of airborne chemical release, machine learning (ML) for simulation and forecasting, and a big data approach to data management, transformation and analysis capable of handling petabyte-scale unstructured and structured data. The outcome of these findings were assembled and accessible as a final output via an intuitive web hosted geospatial-based user interface for demonstration and general dissemination. These new results also provide a mechanism of combining this knowledge in a risk analysis framework tool. The geospatial analysis and output can utilize 5 years of qualified meteorological data to illustrate projected plume footprints that are generated from computational aspects of this study. Specifically, we show the development of a geospatial risk analysis capabilities to respond to and plan for accidental release of radioactive materials and to provide a risk forecasting tool for assessing hazardous chemical releases for the DOE. The focus of this effort is germane to common practices in risk analysis; and it is highly relevant to the timely and transparent release of information related to materials at risk including hazardous materials and chemical vapors and rapid assessment of the potential impacts on the workforce at active sites across the DOE complex.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1995

Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 4: System models and data analysis

In this volume, volume 4 (of five volumes), the discussion is focussed on the system models and related data references and has the following subsections: space shuttle main engine, integrated solid rocket booster, orbiter auxiliary power units/hydraulics, and electrical power system.

Fragola, Joseph R.↗

NASA NTRS2007

TBCC Fan Stage Operability and Performance

NASA s Fundamental Aeronautics Program is investigating turbine-based propulsion systems for access to space because it provides the potential for aircraft-like, space-launch operations that may significantly reduce launch costs and improve safety. Studies performed under NASA s NGLT and the NASP High Speed Propulsion Assessment (HiSPA) program indicated a variable cycle turbofan/ramjet was the best configuration to satisfy access-to-space mission requirements because this configuration maximizes the engine thrust-to-weight ratio while minimizing frontal area. To this end, NASA and GE teamed to design a Mach 4 variable cycle turbofan/ramjet engine for access to space. To enable the wide operating range of a Mach 4+ variable cycle turbofan ramjet required the development of a unique fan stage design capable of multi-point operation to accommodate variations in bypass ratio (10X), fan speed (7X), inlet mass flow (3.5X), inlet pressure (8X), and inlet temperature (3X). The primary goal of the fan stage was to provide a high pressure ratio level with good efficiency at takeoff through the mid range of engine operation, while avoiding stall and losses at the higher flight Mach numbers, without the use of variable inlet guide vanes. Overall fan performance and operability therefore requires major consideration, as competing goals at different operating points and aeromechanical issues become major drivers in the design. To mitigate risk of meeting the unique design requirements for the fan stage, NASA and GE teamed to design and build a 57% engine scaled fan stage to be tested in NASA s transonic compressor facility. The objectives of this test are to assess the aerodynamic and aero mechanic performance and operability characteristics of the fan stage over the entire range of engine operation including: 1) sea level static take-off, 2) transition over large swings in fan bypass ratio, 3) transition from turbofan to ramjet, and 4) fan windmilling operation at high Mach flight conditions. In addition, the fan stage design was validated by performing pre-test CFD analysis using both GE proprietary and NASA s APNASA codes. Herein we will discuss 1) the fan stage design, 2) the experiment including the unique facility and instrumentation, and 3) the comparison of pre-test CFD analysis to initial aerodynamic test results for the baseline fan stage configuration. Measurements and pre-test analysis will be compared at 37%, 50%, 80%, 90%, and 100% of design speed to assess the ability of state-of-the-art design and analysis tools to meet the fan stage performance and operability requirements for turbine based propulsion for access to space.

Suder, Kenneth L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

LDRD23-0184: Resilience and Hazard Risk Assessment to Prioritize Security Operations for Decisions and Impacts (RHAPSODI)

Recent examples provide a significant concern for the resilience of the U.S. electric grid and represent a need for enhanced decision-making to address an increasingly wide range of complex system interactions and potential consequences. In response, this LDRD project produced a proof-of-concept evaluation called the Resilience and Hazard Assessment to Prioritize Security Operations for Decisions and Impacts (RHAPSODI) methodology as an agile and flexible analytic framework capable of addressing multiple, diverse threats to desired electric grid performance. After empirically grounding needs for the future of U.S. electric grid resilience, this project employed the systems-theoretic process analysis (STPA) to develop a systems engineering risk model. The results of a completed feasibility study of a notional high voltage transmission system demonstrate an improved ability to incorporate both spatial (e.g., geographically distributed) and temporal (e.g., dynamic and time-dependent) elements of security risk to the gird. The success of this LDRD project provides the foundation for further evolution of the systems engineering risk model for the grid; derivation of quantitative approaches to evaluate risk and resilience performance; facilitation of agile experimenting and grid sensitivity to a range of vulnerabilities; and development of tools to assist decision-makers in enhancing U.S. electrical grid resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1973

Long range view of materials research for civil transport aircraft

The impact of various material technology advancements on the economics of civil transport aircraft is investigated. Benefits of advances in both airframe and engine materials are considered. Benefits are measured primarily by improvements in return on investment for an operator. Materials research and development programs which lead to the greatest benefits are assessed with regards to cost, risk, and commonality with other programs. Emphasis of the paper is on advanced technology subsonic/transonic transports (ATT type aircraft) since these are likely to be the next generation of commercial transports.

Ardema, M. D.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Long range view of materials research for civil transport aircraft

Ardema, M. D.↗

NASA NTRS1990

An improved approach for flight readiness assessment

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk for a spaceflight system in order to assess flight readiness is presented. This methodology is of particular value when information relevant to failure prediction, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is limited. In this approach, engineering analysis models that characterize specific failure modes based on the physics and mechanics of the failure phenomena are used in a prescribed probabilistic structure to generate a failure probability distribution that is modified by test and flight experience in a Bayesian statistical procedure. The probabilistic structure and statistical methodology are generally applicable to any failure mode for which quantitative engineering analysis can be employed to characterize the failure phenomenon and are particularly well suited for use under the constraints on information availability that are typical of such spaceflight systems as the Space Shuttle and planetary spacecraft.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS2018

USA Space Debris Environment, Operations, and Research Updates

Space Missions in 2017 Earth Satellite Population Collision Avoidance Maneuvers Post mission Disposal of U.S.A. Spacecraft Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and the Space Debris Sensor (SDS) A total of 86 space launches placed more than 400 spacecraft into Earth orbits during 2017, following the trend of increase over the past decade NASA has established conjunction assessment processes for its human spaceflight and uncrewed spacecraft to avoid accidental collisions with objects tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network - NASA also assists other U.S. government spacecraft owners with conjunction assessments and subsequent maneuvers The ISS has conducted 25 debris collision avoidance maneuvers since 1999 - None in 2016-2017, but an ISS visiting vehicle had one collision avoidance maneuver in 2017 During 2017 NASA executed or assisted in the execution of 21 collision avoidance maneuvers by uncrewed spacecraft - Four maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from Fengyun-1C - Two maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from the collision of Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 - One maneuver was conducted to avoid the ISS NASA has established conjunction assessment processes for its human spaceflight and uncrewed spacecraft to avoid accidental collisions with objects tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network - NASA also assists other U.S. government spacecraft owners with conjunction assessments and subsequent maneuvers The ISS has conducted 25 debris collision avoidance maneuvers since 1999 - None in 2016-2017, but an ISS visiting vehicle had one collision avoidance maneuver in 2017 During 2017 NASA executed or assisted in the execution of 21 collision avoidance maneuvers by uncrewed spacecraft - Four maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from Fengyun-1C - Two maneuvers were conducted to avoid debris from the collision of Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 The 2014-15 NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) study on the micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) assessment for the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) provided the following findings - Millimeter-sized orbital debris pose the highest penetration risk to most operational spacecraft in LEO - The most effective means to collect direct measurement data on millimetersized debris above 600 km altitude is to conduct in situ measurements - There is currently no in situ data on such small debris above 600 km altitude Since the orbital debris population follows a power-law size distribution, there are many more millimeter-sized debris than the large tracked objects - Current conjunction assessments and collision avoidance maneuvers against the tracked objects (which are typically 10 cm and larger) only address a small fraction (<1%) of the mission-ending risk from orbital debris To address the millimeter-sized debris data gap above 600 km, NASA has recently developed an innovative in situ measurement instrument - the Space Debris Sensor (SDS) - One maneuver was conducted to avoid the ISS

Liou, J.-C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Bioastronautics Roadmap: A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Space Exploration

The Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap is the framework used to identify and assess the risks to crews exposed to the hazardous environments of space. It guides the implementation of research strategies to prevent or reduce those risks. Although the BCPR identifies steps that must be taken to reduce the risks to health and performance that are associated with human space flight, the BCPR is not a "critical path" analysis in the strict engineering sense. The BCPR will evolve to accommodate new information and technology development and will enable NASA to conduct a formal critical path analysis in the future. As a management tool, the BCPR provides information for making informed decisions about research priorities and resource allocation. The outcome-driven nature of the BCPR makes it amenable for assessing the focus, progress and success of the Bioastronautics research and technology program. The BCPR is also a tool for communicating program priorities and progress to the research community and NASA management.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1994

Develop advanced nonlinear signal analysis topographical mapping system

The Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) has been undergoing extensive flight certification and developmental testing, which involves some 250 health monitoring measurements. Under the severe temperature, pressure, and dynamic environments sustained during operation, numerous major component failures have occurred, resulting in extensive engine hardware damage and scheduling losses. To enhance SSME safety and reliability, detailed analysis and evaluation of the measurements signal are mandatory to assess its dynamic characteristics and operational condition. Efficient and reliable signal detection techniques will reduce catastrophic system failure risks and expedite the evaluation of both flight and ground test data, and thereby reduce launch turn-around time. The basic objective of this contract are threefold: (1) develop and validate a hierarchy of innovative signal analysis techniques for nonlinear and nonstationary time-frequency analysis. Performance evaluation will be carried out through detailed analysis of extensive SSME static firing and flight data. These techniques will be incorporated into a fully automated system; (2) develop an advanced nonlinear signal analysis topographical mapping system (ATMS) to generate a Compressed SSME TOPO Data Base (CSTDB). This ATMS system will convert tremendous amount of complex vibration signals from the entire SSME test history into a bank of succinct image-like patterns while retaining all respective phase information. High compression ratio can be achieved to allow minimal storage requirement, while providing fast signature retrieval, pattern comparison, and identification capabilities; and (3) integrate the nonlinear correlation techniques into the CSTDB data base with compatible TOPO input data format. Such integrated ATMS system will provide the large test archives necessary for quick signature comparison. This study will provide timely assessment of SSME component operational status, identify probable causes of malfunction, and indicate feasible engineering solutions. The final result of this program will yield an ATMS system of nonlinear and nonstationary spectral analysis software package integrated with the Compressed SSME TOPO Data Base (CSTDB) on the same platform. This system will allow NASA engineers to retrieve any unique defect signatures and trends associated with different failure modes and anomalous phenomena over the entire SSME test history across turbo pump families.

Source record↗