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At least 379 records · Page 21

A New Paradigm for Assessing the Role of Agriculture in the Climate System and in Climate Change

This paper discusses the diverse climate forcings that impact agricultural systems, and contrasts the current paradigm of using global models downscaled to agricultural areas (a top-down approach) with a new paradigm that first assesses the vulnerability of agricultural activities to the spectrum of environmental risk including climate (a bottom-up approach). To illustrate the wide spectrum of climate forcings, regional climate forcings are presented including land-use/land-cover change and the influence of aerosols on radiative and biogeochemical fluxes and cloud/precipitation processes, as well as how these effects can be teleconnected globally. Examples are presented of the vulnerability perspective, along with a small survey of the perceived drought impacts in a local area, in which a wide range of impacts for the same precipitation deficits are found. This example illustrates why agricultural assessments of risk to climate change and variability and of other environmental risks should start with a bottom-up perspective.

Pielke, Roger A., Sr.↗

Oxidation Behavior and Property Degradation of Nuclear Graphites

During its multidecade operation in the core of nuclear reactors, graphite components are subjected to aggressive and continuous exposure to a high field of ionizing and neutron irradiation, high temperature, and various types of present and postulated chemical attacks. High density, high crystallinity polygranular synthetic graphite is unique among other materials for its extraordinary capacity of resisting and adapting to the aggression inflicted by high temperature, high energy neutron bombardment and ionizing gamma radiation. But, as a carbonaceous material, even though of very high purity, graphite is reactive towards common oxidizing agents: oxygen, carbon dioxide, water. Safe operation of HTGRs relies, among other aspects, on engineered safeguard systems for efficient and continuous protection of graphite components against oxidation. Graphite oxidation behavior was, and continues to be, an important direction of theoretical and experimental research, engineering analyses, models and simulations, and design and safety regulations. The avalanche of publications, reports, experimental data, computer codes, and regulatory documents related to oxidation behavior of nuclear graphite is now accelerating to new levels, prompted by the increased interest for nuclear energy as a clean, carbon-free energy source. Even though public’s perception of nuclear energy advantages may still be influenced by the memories of past accidents of nuclear reactors from generations II and III, the community of informed scientists and engineers, regulators and statemen knows that generation IV of nuclear reactors is designed at very high safety standards, doubled by great advances of scientific knowledge and technological progress. One of routes of these recent advances is directed at better understanding of graphite oxidation behavior, its relationship with graphite manufacturing and microstructural properties, along with the effects of various environmental factors and process variables. Together, the recent progress in manufacturing, properties characterization, and modeling of intricated physical and chemical processes that concur to the oxidation behavior led to development of powerful simulation codes able to analyze various scenarios of normal operation and hypothetical off-normal events, and thus to clearly specify the allowable parameters envelopes for the designers, constructors, and operators of current and future modular HTGRs. This review begins with an introduction on manufacturing methods, structure, and properties of nuclear graphite, including basic requirements that this specialty graphite type must satisfy for nuclear use. It continues with a chapter on environmental effects on nuclear graphite, where emphasis is placed less on irradiation and much more on oxidation phenomena, their safety implications, and the basic traits of chronic and acute oxidation by air (oxygen) and water (humidity, steam). Particular attention is placed on the three graphite grades of interest for this document (IG-110, NBG-18, PCEA). A chapter on properties degradation induced by oxidation follows, with focus on density, dimensional, and mechanical properties changes. The next chapter is intended as a brief review of various approaches used for modeling of graphite oxidation behavior. It summarizes the progress of oxidation models, from the early attempts to complex computational approaches interfaced with specialized computer codes designed for nuclear reactor simulations. Last, a list is presented of knowledge gaps where more research is needed. A short summary concludes the review.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Weak-form inference for hybrid dynamical systems in ecology

Species subject to predation and environmental threats commonly exhibit variable periods of population boom and bust over long timescales. Understanding and predicting such behaviour, especially given the inherent heterogeneity and stochasticity of exogenous driving factors over short timescales, is an ongoing challenge. A modelling paradigm gaining popularity in the ecological sciences for such multi-scale effects is to couple short-term continuous dynamics to long-term discrete updates. We develop a data-driven method utilizing weak-form equation learning to extract such hybrid governing equations for population dynamics and to estimate the requisite parameters using sparse intermittent measurements of the discrete and continuous variables. The method produces a set of short-term continuous dynamical system equations parametrized by long-term variables, and long-term discrete equations parametrized by short-term variables, allowing direct assessment of interdependencies between the two timescales. We demonstrate the utility of the method on a variety of ecological scenarios and provide extensive tests using models previously derived for epizootics experienced by the North American spongy moth ( Lymantria dispar dispar ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Planetary and Interplanetary Environmental Models for Radiation Analysis

The essence of environmental modeling is presented as suited for radiation analysis purposes. The variables of fundamental importance for radiation environmental assessment are discussed. The characterization is performed by dividing modeling into three areas, namely the interplanetary medium, the circumplanetary environment, and the planetary or satellite surface. In the first area, the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and their modulation by the heliospheric magnetic field as well as and solar particle events (SPE) are considered, in the second area the magnetospheres are taken into account, and in the third area the effect of the planetary environment is also considered. Planetary surfaces and atmospheres are modeled based on results from the most recent targeted spacecraft. The results are coupled with suited visualization techniques and radiation transport models in support of trade studies of health risks for future exploration missions.

DeAngelis, G.↗

Integrated Process Testing of MSR Salt Spill Accidents

Part of the licensing process for new nuclear reactors requires vendors to assess the potential consequences of identified accident scenarios using accident progression modeling. The accident scenario that will likely be evaluated by all molten salt reactor (MSR) developers is a spill of radionuclide-bearing fuel salt onto the reactor containment floor (i.e., a salt spill accident). The development of accident progression models requires experimental data to inform which processes to incorporate, to enable the calculation of parameters to model these processes, and to validate the model predictions. The data should quantify the sensitivities of key processes (e.g., molten salt spreading, heat transfer, containment structure corrosion, radionuclide vaporization, and aerosol generation) towards the initial conditions of the spill, the ambient environment, and the features of the containment. In addition, results from integrated process tests that quantify coupled processes are required to validate systems-level models. This report documents results from integrated process tests conducted on simulated molten salt spill accidents. The generated experimental data simultaneously quantify the heat transfer behavior of the spilled salt, compositional changes to the bulk salt, and the release of surrogate fission products from the spilled salt as aerosol particles. All tests that were conducted used FLiNaK doped with surrogate fission products, and the variables that were evaluated included the initial salt temperature and the concentration of surrogate fission products present in the salt. The major accomplishments of this work include identifying surrogate fuel salt compositions that provide insight into the dispersal behavior of radionuclides of potential significance to the source term, employing previously developed methods and measurement techniques to simultaneously measure key processes, generating data on the coupled processes of molten salt heat transfer and surrogate fission product release as aerosol particles, demonstrating new test methods for real-time monitoring of the flow rate of the spill and aerosol size quantification in an argon atmosphere, and developing a mass transfer model for cesium and iodine release from molten FLiNaK to provide insight into aerosol formation by vapor condensation. The same methodology applied herein can be employed to study different salt compositions of interest to MSR developers, different environmental conditions, and other variables that are relevant to postulated accident scenarios. The insights gained from these integrated process tests conducted at a laboratory scale will be incorporated into future integral effects tests conducted at an engineering scale.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Modern analogs for understanding pollen-vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean mosaic landscape (Balearic Islands, Western Mediterranean)

This paper presents the study of modern pollen analogs from the Balearic Islands. While similar studies have been largely applied to mainland areas, research focused on modern vegetation dynamics on Mediterranean islands remains very rare. In this research, we combine vegetation surveys, pollen analysis and multivariate statistics to understand landscape composition. The main objectives of are: (1) to examine pollen-vegetation relationships in relation to environmental and land-use variables; (2) to understand modern pollen representation in a mosaic landscape structure; and (3) to propose pollen indicators that characterize the primary vegetation types from the Balearic Islands to better interpret past pollen records in Mediterranean island environments. Pollen results and Redundancy Analysis (RDA) distinguish three major groups: (a) Holm oak and box formations; (b) maquis and garrigues; and (c) anthropogenic and open habitats. Landscape form, mean decadal rainfall, mean decadal temperature, fire activity, trampling, slope percentage, wet/flooded soil, saline soil, distance to agropastoral cells, gHM index, domestic herbivory presence, agropastoral use, and soil type are the major variables explaining modern pollen assemblage variation in our research. Poaceae undiff., Plantago sp., Apiaceae undiff., Cerealia-t, and Cichorieae are highly correlated to human activities but should be interpreted cautiously when occurring in low values. Quercus ilex-t, Hypericum, and Buxus are correlated to humid locations while Pistacia, Pinus, Juniperus-t, and Olea to high mean decadal temperatures. Our study indicates how pollen analysis and multivariate analysis are powerful tools for characterizing the mosaic landscape, with special focus on the main vegetation types of the Balearic Islands.

Geology↗

Analysis of Aircraft, Radiosonde and Radar Observations in Cirrus Clouds Observed During FIRE II: The Interactions Between Environmental Structure, Turbulence and Cloud Microphysical Properties

Ways to determine the turbulence intensity and the horizontal variability in cirrus clouds have been investigated using FIRE-II aircraft, radiosonde and radar data. Higher turbulence intensities were found within some, but not all, of the neutrally stratified layers. It was also demonstrated that the stability of cirrus layers with high extinction values decrease in time, possibly as a result of radiative destabilization. However, these features could not be directly related to each other in any simple manner. A simple linear relationship was observed between the amount of horizontal variability in the ice water content and its average value. This was also true for the extinction and ice crystal number concentrations. A relationship was also suggested between the variability in cloud depth and the environmental stability across the depth of the cloud layer, which requires further investigation.

Smith, Samantha A.↗

Action Effectiveness Monitoring and Research of Dredged Material Placement at Woodland Islands (Final Report)

Benthic invertebrates play critical ecosystem roles including the breakdown of organic matter, sediment mixing, and nutrient cycling. In the lower Columbia River and estuary, benthic invertebrates provide a foraging resource for threatened and endangered juvenile salmon. Driven by the goal to create low velocity, shallow water, and riparian shrub habitats to benefit juvenile salmon, the USACE placed 237,000 CY of dredged material, resulting in the deposition of 13.5 acres of sand on the off-channel margins at Woodland Islands. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) designed and implemented an action effectiveness research study to understand how dredged material placement at Woodland Islands affected sediment conditions and benthic invertebrate assemblages. A Before-After-Control-Impact, or BACI, study design was used to evaluate the response of environmental conditions and benthic invertebrates to dredged material placement. The design included one impact site and two control sites. Sampling occurred for two years prior to dredged material placement and two years after. Our study found that spatial variation was a significant factor for both environmental and biological response variables which suggests local conditions are important considerations for mechanisms affecting benthic assemblages. We found that off-channel habitats across all locations sampled were producing benthic invertebrates, many of which are common prey items for juvenile salmon and steelhead—e.g., insects, chironomids, crustaceans, and corophium. There was a significant BACI effect (i.e., an effect at the dredged material placement site, relative to conditions at the control sites) for concentration of carbon and ammonium in sediment, but not for phosphorous concentrations or for percent sand. The estimated abundance for the three invertebrate response variables—total abundance, total chironomid abundance, and total corophium abundance—was significantly lower at the impact site after dredged material placement, compared to the control sites. At Woodland Island, the estimated mean abundance for all invertebrates combined decreased 28% after dredged material placement. Estimated mean abundances of chironomid and corophium decreased by 8% and 88%, respectively. While invertebrate abundances were lower after dredged placement, the composition of benthic invertebrates was similar before and after placement suggesting that as the new habitat feature evolves recolonization will likely follow. These findings provide a foundation for understanding potential benefits and consequences of repurposing dredged material for habitat creation in the LCRE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forest Environments

The application of remote sensing measurement techniques to scientific questions involving forests is a necessity because of the extent of forests, their variability, and the need to measure their interaction with environmental processes. The synoptic view given by remote sensing data of the extent, variability, and relation to environmental processes involving energy balances, disposition of water, and tree growth in relation to elemental storage of carbon, nitrogen and other essential elements is essential to understanding the forest in a scientific way. The ability to make comparisons in these properties at various intervals allows the determination of process functions and rates where the forest affects environmental properties. The ultimate objective in using these data is to define the extent of the forest and wildland resource, to determine the changes that are occurring in the resource due to utilization by man under conditions of changing market and population demands, and to evaluate the correlated changes occurring in various environmental properties influenced by forest vegetation on a local as well as global scale.

Zinke, P.↗

Comparative Analysis of Corrinoid Profiles across Host-Associated and Environmental Samples

Vitamin B 12 (the cyanated form of cobalamin cofactors) is best known for its essential role in human health. In addition to its function in human metabolism, cobalamin also plays important roles in microbial metabolism and can impact microbial community function. Cobalamin is a member of the structurally diverse family of cofactors known as cobamides that are produced exclusively by certain prokaryotes. Cobamides are considered shared nutrients in microbial communities because the majority of bacteria that possess cobamide-dependent enzymes cannot synthesize cobamides de novo. Furthermore, different microbes have evolved metabolic specificity for particular cobamides, and therefore, the availability of cobamides in the environment is important for cobamide-dependent microbes. Determining the cobamides present in an environment of interest is essential for understanding microbial metabolic interactions. By examining the abundances of different cobamides in diverse environments, including 10 obtained in this study, we find that, contrary to its preeminence in human metabolism, cobalamin is relatively rare in many microbial habitats. Comparison of cobamide profiles of mammalian gastrointestinal samples and wood-feeding insects reveals that host-associated cobamide abundances vary and that fecal cobamide profiles differ from those of their host gastrointestinal tracts. Environmental cobamide profiles obtained from aquatic, soil, and contaminated groundwater samples reveal that the cobamide compositions of environmental samples are highly variable. As the only commercially available cobamide, cobalamin is routinely supplied during microbial culturing efforts. Furthermore, these findings suggest that cobamides specific to a given microbiome may yield greater insight into nutrient utilization and physiological processes that occur in these habitats.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this work, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.

essential biodiversity variables↗

Impacts of humic substances, elevated temperature, and UVB radiation on bacterial communities of the marine sponge Chondrilla sp

Abstract Sponges are abundant components of coral reefs known for their filtration capabilities and intricate interactions with microbes. They play a crucial role in maintaining the ecological balance of coral reefs. Humic substances (HS) affect bacterial communities across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. However, the specific effects of HS on sponge-associated microbial symbionts have largely been neglected. Here, we used a randomized-controlled microcosm setup to investigate the independent and interactive effects of HS, elevated temperature, and UVB radiation on bacterial communities associated with the sponge Chondrilla sp. Our results indicated the presence of a core bacterial community consisting of relatively abundant members, apparently resilient to the tested environmental perturbations, alongside a variable bacterial community. Elevated temperature positively affected the relative abundances of ASVs related to Planctomycetales and members of the families Pseudohongiellaceae and Hyphomonadaceae. HS increased the relative abundances of several ASVs potentially involved in recalcitrant organic matter degradation (e.g., the BD2-11 terrestrial group, Saccharimonadales, and SAR202 clade). There was no significant independent effect of UVB and there were no significant interactive effects of HS, heat, and UVB on bacterial diversity and composition. The significant, independent impact of HS on the composition of sponge bacterial communities suggests that alterations to HS inputs may have cascading effects on adjacent marine ecosystems.

Stuij, Tamara M. (ORCID:0000000152170798)↗

Combining Observations and Models: A Review of the CARDAMOM Framework for Data‐Constrained Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

The rapid increase in the volume and variety of terrestrial biosphere observations (i.e., remote sensing data and in situ measurements) offers a unique opportunity to derive ecological insights, refine process‐based models, and improve forecasting for decision support. However, despite their potential, ecological observations have primarily been used to benchmark process‐based models, as many past and current models lack the capability to directly integrate observations and their associated uncertainties for parameterization. In contrast, data assimilation frameworks such as the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) and its suite of process‐based models, known as the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon Model (DALEC), are specifically designed for model‐data fusion. This review, motivated by a recent CARDAMOM community workshop, examines the development and applications of CARDAMOM, with an emphasis on its role in advancing ecosystem process understanding. CARDAMOM employs a Bayesian approach, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to enable data‐driven calibration of DALEC parameters and initial states (i.e., carbon pool sizes) through observation operators. CARDAMOM's unique ability to retrieve localized model process parameters from diverse datasets—ranging from in situ measurements to global satellite observations—makes it a highly flexible tool for analyzing spatially variable ecosystem responses to environmental change. However, assimilating these data also presents challenges, including data quality issues that propagate into model skill, as well as trade‐offs between model complexity, parameter equifinality, and predictive performance. We discuss potential solutions to these challenges, such as reducing parameter equifinality by incorporating new observations. This review also offers community recommendations for incorporating emerging datasets, integrating machine learning techniques, strengthening collaboration with remote sensing, field, and modeling communities, and expanding CARDAMOM's relevance for localized ecosystem monitoring and decision‐making. CARDAMOM enables a deep, mechanistic understanding of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics that cannot be achieved through empirical analyses of observational datasets or weakly constrained models alone.

Bayesian inference↗

Seasonal Locking of the MJO’s Southward Detour of the Maritime Continent: The Role of the Australian Monsoon

Abstract This study investigates why the major convective envelope of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) detours to the south of the Maritime Continent (MC) only during boreal winter [December–March (DJFM)]. To examine processes affecting this MJO detour, the MJO-related variance of precipitation and column-integrated moisture anomalies in DJFM are compared with those in the seasons before [October–November (ON)] and after [April–May (AM)]. While MJO precipitation variance is much higher in the southern MC (SMC) during DJFM than in other seasons, the MJO moisture variance is comparable among the seasons, implying that the seasonal locking of the MJO’s southward detour cannot be explained by the magnitude of moisture anomalies alone. The higher precipitation variance in the SMC region is partly explained by the much higher moisture sensitivity of precipitation in DJFM than in other seasons, resulting in a more efficient conversion of anomalous moisture to anomalous precipitation. DJFM is also distinguishable from the other seasons by stronger positive wind–evaporation feedback onto MJO precipitation anomalies due to the background westerly wind in the lower troposphere. It is found that the seasonal cycle of moisture–precipitation coupling and wind–evaporation feedback in the SMC region closely follows that of the Australian monsoon, which is active exclusively in DJFM. Our results suggest that the MJO’s southward detour in the MC is seasonally locked because it occurs preferentially when the Australian monsoon system produces a background state that is favorable for MJO development in the SMC.

Intraseasonal variability↗

An ecological niche model to predict the geographic distribution of Haemagogus janthinomys, Dyar, 1921 a yellow fever and Mayaro virus vector, in South America

Yellow fever virus (YFV) has a long history of impacting human health in South America. Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an emerging arbovirus of public health concern in the Neotropics and its full impact is yet unknown. Both YFV and MAYV are primarily maintained via a sylvatic transmission cycle but can be opportunistically transmitted to humans by the bites of infected forest dwelling Haemagogus janthinomys Dyar, 1921. To better understand the potential risk of YFV and MAYV transmission to humans, a more detailed understanding of this vector species’ distribution is critical. This study compiled a comprehensive database of 177 unique Hg . janthinomys collection sites retrieved from the published literature, digitized museum specimens and publicly accessible mosquito surveillance data. Covariate analysis was performed to optimize a selection of environmental (topographic and bioclimatic) variables associated with predicting habitat suitability, and species distributions modelled across South America using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach. Our results indicate that suitable habitat for Hg . janthinomys can be found across forested regions of South America including the Atlantic forests and interior Amazon.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-NGB NGEE Arctic Barrow

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-NGB NGEE Arctic Barrow. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-NGB NGEE Arctic Barrow produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The ecosystem is an Arctic coastal tundra. This site measures greenhouse gasses and meteorological variables at the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) as part of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment - Arctic.

Torn, Margaret↗

Development of a winter wheat adjustable crop calendar model

The author has identified the following significant results. After parameter estimation, tests were conducted with variances from the fits, and on independent data. From these tests, it was generally concluded that exponential functions have little advantage over polynomials. Precipitation was not found to significantly affect the fits. The Robertson's triquadratic form, in general use for spring wheat, was found to show promise for winter wheat, but special techniques and care were required for its use. In most instances, equations with nonlinear effects were found to yield erratic results when utilized with daily environmental values as independent variables.

Baker, J. R.↗

NASA's participation in the AVE-SESAME '79 program

NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center participated with its AVE (Atmospheric Variability Experiment) in a large interagency mesoscale and severe storms experiment identified herein as AVE-SESAME '79 (Atmospheric Variability Experiment-Severe Environmental Storms and Mesoscale Experiment 1979). A primary objective of NASA was to support an effort to acquire carefully edited sets of rawinsonde data during selected severe weather events for use in correlative and diagnostic studies with satellite and radar data obtained at approximately the same times. Data were acquired during six individual 24-h experiments on both the regional and storm scales over a network in the central United States that utilized approximately 20 supplemental rawinsonde sites meshed among 23 standard National Weather Service sites. Included among the six experiments are data obtained between 1200 GMT on April 10 and 1200 GMT on April 11, encompassing the formation and development period for the tornado-producing systems that devastated Wichita Falls, Texas, and other sections of Oklahoma and Texas. The other dates for which data sets are available are April 19-20 and 25-26, May 9-10 and 20-21, and June 7-8, 1979.

Hill, K.↗