Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Error Rate Predictions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

Radio-wave propagation for space communications systems

The most recent information on the effects of Earth's atmosphere on space communications systems is reviewed. The design and reliable operation of satellite systems that provide the many applications in space which rely on the transmission of radio waves for communications and scientific purposes are dependent on the propagation characteristics of the transmission path. The presence of atmospheric gases, clouds, fog, precipitation, and turbulence causes uncontrolled variations in the signal characteristics. These variations can result in a reduction of the quality and reliability of the transmitted information. Models and other techniques are used in the prediction of atmospheric effects as influenced by frequency, geography, elevation angle, and type of transmission. Recent data on performance characteristics obtained from direct measurements on satellite links operating to above 30 GHz have been reviewed. Particular emphasis has been placed on the effects of precipitation on the Earth/space path, including rain attenuation, and ice particle depolarization. Other factors are sky noise, antenna gain degradation, scintillations, and bandwidth coherence. Each of the various propagation factors has an effect on design criteria for communications systems. These criteria include link reliability, power margins, noise contribution, modulation and polarization factors, channel cross talk, error rate, and bandwidth limitations.

Ippolito, L. J.↗

On the Ice Nucleation Spectrum

This work presents a novel formulation of the ice nucleation spectrum, i.e. the function relating the ice crystal concentration to cloud formation conditions and aerosol properties. The new formulation is physically-based and explicitly accounts for the dependency of the ice crystal concentration on temperature, supersaturation, cooling rate, and particle size, surface area and composition. This is achieved by introducing the concepts of ice nucleation coefficient (the number of ice germs present in a particle) and nucleation probability dispersion function (the distribution of ice nucleation coefficients within the aerosol population). The new formulation is used to generate ice nucleation parameterizations for the homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets and the heterogeneous deposition ice nucleation on dust and soot ice nuclei. For homogeneous freezing, it was found that by increasing the dispersion in the droplet volume distribution the fraction of supercooled droplets in the population increases. For heterogeneous ice nucleation the new formulation consistently describes singular and stochastic behavior within a single framework. Using a fundamentally stochastic approach, both cooling rate independence and constancy of the ice nucleation fraction over time, features typically associated with singular behavior, were reproduced. Analysis of the temporal dependency of the ice nucleation spectrum suggested that experimental methods that measure the ice nucleation fraction over few seconds would tend to underestimate the ice nuclei concentration. It is shown that inferring the aerosol heterogeneous ice nucleation properties from measurements of the onset supersaturation and temperature may carry significant error as the variability in ice nucleation properties within the aerosol population is not accounted for. This work provides a simple and rigorous ice nucleation framework where theoretical predictions, laboratory measurements and field campaign data can be reconciled, and that is suitable for application in atmospheric modeling studies.

Barahona, D.↗

Limitations of Separate Cloud and Rain Categories in Parameterizing Collision-Coalescence for Bulk Microphysics Schemes

Warm rain collision-coalescence has been persistently difficult to parameterize in bulk microphysics schemes. We use a flexible bulk microphysics scheme with bin scheme process parameterizations, called AMP, to investigate reasons for the difficulty. AMP is configured in a variety of ways to mimic bulk schemes and is compared to simulations with the bin scheme upon which AMP is built. We find that an important limitation in traditional bulk schemes is the use of separate cloud and rain categories. When the drop size distribution is instead represented by a continuous distribution, the simulation of cloud-to-rain conversion is substantially improved. We also find large sensitivity to the threshold size to distinguish cloud and rain in traditional schemes; substantial improvement is found by decreasing the threshold from 40 to 25 μm. Neither the use of an assumed functional form for the size distribution nor the choice of predicted distribution moments has a large impact on the ability of AMP to simulate rain production. When predicting four total moments of the liquid drop size distribution, either with a traditional two-category, two-moment scheme with a reduced size threshold, or a four-moment single-category scheme, errors in the evolution of mass and the cloud size distribution are similar, but the single-category scheme has a substantially better representation of the rain size distribution. Optimal moment combinations for the single-category approach are investigated and appear to be linked more to the information content they provide for constraining the size distributions than to their correlation with collision-coalescence rates.

autoconversion↗

ITOS VHRR on-board data compression study

Data compression methods for ITOS VHRR data were studied for a tape recorder record-and playback application. A playback period of 9 minutes was assumed with a nominal 18 minute record period for a 2-to-1 compression ratio. Both analog and digital methods were considered with the conclusion that digital methods should be used. Two system designs were prepared. One is a PCM system and the other is an entropy-coded predictive-quantization, sometimes called entropy-coded DPCM or just DPCM, system. Both systems use data management principles to transmit only the necessary data. Both systems use a medium capacity standard tape recorder from specifications provided by the technical officer. The 10 to the 9th power bit capacity of the recorder is the basic limitation on the compression ratio. Both systems achieve the minimum desired 2 to 1 compression ratio. A slower playback rate can be used with the DPCM system due to a higher compression factor for better link performance at a given CNR in terms of bandwidth utilization and error rate. The report is divided into two parts. The first part summarizes the theoretical conclusions of the second part and presents the system diagrams. The second part is a detailed analysis based upon an empirically derived random process model arrived at from specifications and measured data provided by the technical officer.

Gray, R. M.↗

A Real-Time Position-Locating Algorithm for CCD-Based Sunspot Tracking

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) EXperimental Vector Magnetograph (EXVM) polarimeter measures the sun's vector magnetic field. These measurements are taken to improve understanding of the sun's magnetic field in the hopes to better predict solar flares. Part of the procedure for the EXVM requires image motion stabilization over a period of a few minutes. A high speed tracker can be used to reduce image motion produced by wind loading on the EXVM, fluctuations in the atmosphere and other vibrations. The tracker consists of two elements, an image motion detector and a control system. The image motion detector determines the image movement from one frame to the next and sends an error signal to the control system. For the ground based application to reduce image motion due to atmospheric fluctuations requires an error determination at the rate of at least 100 hz. It would be desirable to have an error determination rate of 1 kHz to assure that higher rate image motion is reduced and to increase the control system stability. Two algorithms are presented that are typically used for tracking. These algorithms are examined for their applicability for tracking sunspots, specifically their accuracy if only one column and one row of CCD pixels are used. To examine the accuracy of this method two techniques are used. One involves moving a sunspot image a known distance with computer software, then applying the particular algorithm to see how accurately it determines this movement. The second technique involves using a rate table to control the object motion, then applying the algorithms to see how accurately each determines the actual motion. Results from these two techniques are presented.

Taylor, Jaime R.↗

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ground Validation (GV) Science Implementation Plan

For pre-launch algorithm development and post-launch product evaluation Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ground Validation (GV) goes beyond direct comparisons of surface rain rates between ground and satellite measurements to provide the means for improving retrieval algorithms and model applications.Three approaches to GPM GV include direct statistical validation (at the surface), precipitation physics validation (in a vertical columns), and integrated science validation (4-dimensional). These three approaches support five themes: core satellite error characterization; constellation satellites validation; development of physical models of snow, cloud water, and mixed phase; development of cloud-resolving model (CRM) and land-surface models to bridge observations and algorithms; and, development of coupled CRM-land surface modeling for basin-scale water budget studies and natural hazard prediction. This presentation describes the implementation of these approaches.

Petersen, Walter A.↗

Integration and Optimization of a Waste Heat Driven Organic Rankine Cycle for Power Generation in Wastewater Treatment Plants

The study focuses on achieving energy self-sufficiency in Wastewater Treatment Plants by proposing a comprehensive model for integrating, sizing, and optimizing an Organic Rankine Cycle system. The Organic Rankine Cycle system is designed to utilize waste heat from the gensets at As Samra Wastewater Treatment Plant in Jordan, where it will contribute to the overall electrical energy supply of the plant. Real data from As Samra Wastewater Treatment Plant is used to model and calculate the available waste heat using TRNSYS® software. The Organic Rankine Cycle model is then developed using ASPEN PLUS® software to explore the impact of operational parameters and determine their optimal values for maximizing the plant's energy profile. An economic analysis is conducted to assess the feasibility of the proposed model, considering system components, installation, operation, and maintenance costs. To optimize the Organic Rankine Cycle system, the study employs the Multi-Output Support Vector Regression technique to capture nonlinear relationships between independent variables (fluid type, turbine inlet pressure, turbine inlet temperature, turbine outlet pressure, and mass flow rate) and dependent variables (pump power input, waste heat input, and turbine specific work). The Osprey optimization algorithm is used to address the multi-objective optimization problem, with the proposed Pareto-based Osprey Optimization Algorithm and the Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization technique being employed to evaluate critical performance and economic parameters such as system thermal efficiency, net power output, and the levelized cost of electricity. The results of the optimization strategies indicate that the M-SVR model's prediction accuracy is significantly improved after parameter optimization, with the model returning high R 2 and low Mean Square Error values of 0.991 and 0.00216, respectively. The Pareto-Based Osprey Optimization Algorithm optimizer identifies the best working fluid as Isobutane/Isopentane in a ratio of 66:34, with optimal turbine inlet pressure and temperature of 15 bars and 218 °C, respectively. In conclusion, the Organic Rankine Cycle model at these optimal conditions achieves a cycle efficiency of 19.93% and an Levelized Cost of Electricity value of 0.0353 USD/kWh.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Finite Element Method for Compressible and Turbulent Multiphase Flow Instabilities with Heat Transfer

We present a new finite element framework for modeling compressible, turbulent multiphase flows with heat transfer. For two-fluid systems with a free surface, the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method is implemented without the need for interface reconstruction, while turbulence is resolved using a dynamic Vreman large eddy simulation (LES) model. Unlike most two-phase VOF studies, which neglect heat transfer, the present approach incorporates energy transport equations within the VOF formulation to account for heat exchange, an effect particularly important in turbulent flows. Conjugate heat transfer is often challenging in finite volume methods, which require explicit specification of heat fluxes at the solid–fluid interface, limiting accuracy and predictive capability. By contrast, the finite element formulation does not require heat flux inputs, allowing more accurate and robust simulation of heat transfer between solids and fluids. The method is demonstrated through three representative cases. First, a two-fluid instability with a single-mode perturbation is simulated and validated against analytical growth rates. Second, conjugate heat transfer is examined in a high-temperature flow over a cold metal cylinder, with validation performed both quantitatively—via pressure coefficient comparisons with experimental data—and qualitatively using vector field topology. Finally, compressible spray injection and breakup are modeled, demonstrating the ability of the framework to capture interfacial dynamics and atomization under turbulent, high-speed conditions. In the compressible spray injection and breakup case, the results indicate that the finite element formulation achieved higher predictive accuracy and robustness than the finite-volume method. With the same mesh resolution, the FEM reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) from 6.96 mm and 26.0% (for the FVM) to 4.85 mm and 12.7%, respectively, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness in capturing interfacial dynamics and heat transfer. The study also introduced vector field topology to visualize and interpret coherent flow structures and instabilities, offering insights beyond conventional scalar-field analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Terrestrial Single-Station Analog for Constraining the Martian Core and Deep Interior: Implications for InSight

We used a terrestrial single-station seismometer to quantify the uncertainty of InSight (INterior explorations using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) data for determining Martian core size. To mimic Martian seismicity, we formed a catalog using 917 terrestrial earthquakes, from which we randomly selected events. We stacked ScS amplitudes on modeled arrival times and searched for where ScS produced coherent seismic amplitudes. A core detection was defined by a coherent peak with small offset between predicted and user-selected arrival times. Iterating the detection algorithm with varying signal-to-noise (SNR) ranges and quantity of events determined the selection frequency of each model and quantified core depth uncertainty. Increasing the quantity of events reduced core depth uncertainty while increasing the recovery rate, while increasing event SNR had little effect. Including ScS2 multiples increased the recovery rate and reduced core depth uncertainty when we used low quantities of events. The most-frequent core depths varied by back azimuth, suggesting our method is sensitive to the presence of mantle heterogeneities. When we added 1° in source distance errors, core depth uncertainty increased by up to 11 km and recovery rates decreased by <5%. Altering epicentral distances by 25% added ~35 km of uncertainty and reduced recovery rates to <50% in some cases. From these experiments, we estimate that if InSight can detect five events with high location precision (<10% epicentral distance errors), that there is at least an 88% chance of core depth recovery using ScS alone with uncertainty in core depth approaching 18 km and decreasing as more events are located.

Marusiak, Angela G.↗

Terrestrial Single-Station Analog for Constraining the Martian Core and Deep Interior: Implications for InSight

We used a terrestrial single-station seismometer to quantify the uncertainty of InSight (INterior explorations using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) data for determining Martian core size. To mimic Martian seismicity, we formed a catalog using 917 terrestrial earthquakes, from which we randomly selected events. We stacked ScS amplitudes on modeled arrival times and searched for where ScS produced coherent seismic amplitudes. A core detection was defined by a coherent peak with small offset between predicted and user-selected arrival times. Iterating the detection algorithm with varying signal-to-noise (SNR) ranges and quantity of events determined the selection frequency of each model and quantified core depth uncertainty. Increasing the quantity of events reduced core depth uncertainty while increasing the recovery rate, while increasing event SNR had little effect. Including ScS2 multiples increased the recovery rate and reduced core depth uncertainty when we used low quantities of events. The most-frequent core depths varied by back azimuth, suggesting our method is sensitive to the presence of mantle heterogeneities. When we added 1° in source distance errors, core depth uncertainty increased by up to 11 km and recovery rates decreased by <5%. Altering epicentral distances by 25% added ~35 km of uncertainty and reduced recovery rates to <50% in some cases. From these experiments, we estimate that if InSight can detect five events with high location precision (< 10% epicentral distance errors), that there is at least an 88% chance of core depth recovery using ScS alone with uncertainty in core depth approaching 18 km and decreasing as more events are located.

Angela G Marusiak↗

Optical Time Transfer for Bistatic SAR Spacecraft

A spacecraft-to-spacecraft optical time-transfer simulation has been developed as a tool for informing NASA’s Surface Deformation and Change (SDC) mission architecture. The SDC mission will combine radar images from multiple spacecraft to improve understanding of the Earth’s sea-level and landscape changes. Spacecraft must be precisely synchronized in order to create sharp radar images. Simulation of multiple spacecraft time-synchronizing via laser communication can inform technology choices of a mission by providing a picosecond-precision level estimate of clock error. This timing and ranging simulation has been combined with a radar system performance analysis pipeline. The simulated timing errors are used to predict performance of bistatic SAR systems in the presence of oscillator noise and time synchronization in accuracy. This analysis includes both analytic approximation equations from existing literature, and a numerical radar simulation to extract key system performance parameters like phase error and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)degradation. Precision time-transfer techniques facilitate the accurate synchronization of clocks between any combination of terminals. Most time-transfer technology for comparing two clocks at different terminals use radio frequencies (RF) to measure the time delay between the sending and receiving of signals. Laser technology offers the capability to transmit high data rates with systems that are of smaller size and lower power than comparable RF systems. The clocks on independent spacecraft will have some phase and frequency errors between them that result in clock drift. The two clock models that are included in this bi-directional MATLAB simulation are a cesium-based Chip-Scale Atomic Clock (CSAC) and a rubidium-based Miniature Atomic Clock (MAC). The CSAC has flown as hardware for small satellite missions such as the University of Florida’s CHOMPTT mission. A study of example orbits, including that of NASA NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar Mission (NISAR) mission, and lasing rates demonstrate the impact of flight configuration parameters on the synchronization error between two spacecraft. The MATLAB timing simulation uses a Runge-Kutta 4th-order method to propagate spacecraft orbits and computes the light-travel time estimate between them. The simulation outputs the estimated range and estimated clock error based on a user-defined spacecraft cluster configuration. The radar simulation and analytic approximations are applied to evaluate a potential future NASA bistatic SAR constellation architecture. In the proposed architecture, satellites follow each other in the same orbit at 800 km altitude, with a 210 km baseline. We also baseline the CSAC as an ultra stable oscillator, and use NASA’s NISAR for baseline radar system parameters to compute a clock-system introduced phase error of 5.6 degrees without synchronization by frequent time transfer. We build on this base case with a sensitivity analysis of radar performance over a proposed range of constellation and radar system parameters. With this analysis pipeline, we comment on which radar parameters should or should not be changed to minimize synchronization requirements. This analysis technique could be extended or modified to evaluate the timing requirements of other geometries for other future multistatic SAR missions, or other interferometric satellite missions.

Surface Deformation and Change↗

Experimental Results and Interfacial Lift-off Model Predictions of Critical Heat Flux for Flow Boiling with Subcooled Inlet Conditions – In Preparation for Experiments Onboard the International Space Station

This study investigates critical heat flux (CHF) for subcooled flow boiling of n-Perfluorohexane based on results of pre-launch Earth-gravity Mission Sequence Tests (MSTs) of the Flow Boiling and Condensation Experiment (FBCE), which was launched to the International Space Station (ISS) in August 2021. CHF measurements were made in a rectangular channel having a 2.5 mm by 5 mm cross-section and a 114.6-mm long heated segment. Both single-sided and double-sided heating were tested in vertical upflow in Earth gravity for a variety of inlet conditions. The inlet subcooling was varied in the range of 0.4 – 32.0°C and encompassed both near-saturated and highly subcooled conditions. Experimental trends and high-speed video records were investigated to better understand the mechanism of CHF. Overall trends show CHF increases as flow rate and/or inlet subcooling are increased. Flow features from the events around CHF justify the applicability of the Interfacial Lift-off Model and the determination of limiting criteria for its application. The present experimental data are combined with prior databases for various flow orientations with respect to Earth gravity and microgravity data collected on parabolic flights. Predictions are made using the Interfacial Lift-off Model for this consolidated subcooled-inlet FBCE-CHF database. A heat utility ratio was included in the model to capture the effects of subcooling and corresponding thermodynamic non-equilibrium. An overall mean absolute error of 19.04% indicates good predictive capability of the model for both heating configurations, different gravity environments, and a wide range of inlet subcooling.

flow boiling↗

Data compression of stereopairs

This paper addresses the problem of stereopair data compression. Two fundamentally different techniques for compressing stereopairs are discussed. The first technique, called disparity-compensated transform-domain predictive coding, attempts to minimize the mean-square error between the original stereopair and the compressed stereopair. The second technique, called mixed-resolution coding, is a psychophysically justified technique that exploits known facts about human stereovision to code stereopairs in a subjectively acceptable manner. A method for assessing the quality of compressed stereopairs is also presented. It involves measuring the ability of an observer to perceive depth in coded stereopairs. It is found that observers generally perceived objects to be further away in compressed stereopairs than they did in originals. Finally, the problem of coding stereopairs is considered from a rate-distortion perspective. It is proved that the rate distortion limit for coding stereopairs cannot in general be achieved by a coder that first codes and decodes the right picture sequence independently of the left picture sequence, and then codes and decodes the left picture sequence given the decoded right picture sequence.

Perkins, Michael G.↗

Mean sea surface and geoid gradient comparisons with TOPEX altimeter data

Cycles 4 to 54 of TOPEX data have been analyzed through comparisons with the mean sea surface given on the disturbed geophysical data record (GDR). Two inverted barometer correction procedures were considered for the data reduction. One used a constant atmospheric pressure for all data while the one adopted for use, for most computations, introduced a cycle average pressure. The maximum difference between the two estimates was 3.0 cm with a clear annual signal. With the modified correction the TOPEX sea surface was compared to The Ohio State University (OSU) mean sea surface, given on the GDR, to estimate three translations ( delta x = -2.3 cm; delta y = 25.0 cm; delta z = -0.3 cm) and a bias (43.3 cm) between the two surfaces. The only significant translation is delta y which indicates the reference frame of the TOPEX system differs from that used in the OSU mean sea surface system. The bias between the TOPEX mean sea surface and the OSU mean sea surface was used to estimate an equatorial radius of 6,378,136.55 m based on an 18-cm biased estimate of the TOPEX altimeter. Examination of the average difference, by cycle, between the TOPEX sea surface and the OSU mean sea surface suggested a bias change of 3.1 +/- 2.2 mm/yr with a positive sign indicating the average ocean surface is rising or the altimeter measured distance is decreasing. Models were implemented that solved directly for a bias, bias rate annual/semiannual, and tide correction terms. The computations indicated that a simultaneous solution for this bias, bias rate, and annual/semiannual terms gave the most accurate results. Nonsimultaneous solutions led to slightly different bias rate values. The root mean square difference between the TOPEX sea surface and OSU sea surface, after translation and bias correction, was +/- 17 cm for a typical cycle. Some locations were indentified where the difference could reach 2.3 cm and were repeated over several cycles indicating errors in the mean sea surface. Most of the large differences occur in regions lacking altimeter data prior to the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission and/or areas of significant bathymetric signature. Geoid gradients are needed for the reduction of individual track data to a reference track. The accuracy of the determination of such gradients was determined through the comparison of predicted along-track gradients to the observed gradients. Among four mean sea surfaces tested the best agreement was found with the OSU mean sea surface placed on the TOPEX geophysical data record.

Rapp, Richard H.↗

In-Flight Line-Of-Sight Pointing Performance for the GOES-16 and GOES-17 Spacecraft

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R program (GOES-R) has launched two of the next generation geostationary weather satellites, both of which are now fully operational. GOES-16 launched in November 2016, and GOES-17 launched in March 2017. In this paper, we present the pointing and pointing stability results of the two spacecraft, with specific focus on aspects of the design related to mitigating jitter. The flight instrument suite includes 6 seismic accelerometers sampled at approximately 2 kilohertz, allowing in-flight verification of pointing stability and comparison back to simulation predictions. This paper compares the observed flight results with the simulation predictions for acceleration and shock response spectrum (SRS) for various operational scenarios and instrument observation modes. Passive isolation of both the reaction wheels and the payload deck have proved to be effective in reducing jitter responses. Active Vibration Damping (AVD) of flexible-body modes attenuates the low frequency motion of the vehicle appendages, improving the low-frequency pointing performance. Knowledge of the instrument scan mirror motion is fed forward to the reaction wheel control, reducing disturbances on the spacecraft bus. Attitude knowledge and rate data are provided to the primary Earth-observing instrument with an accuracy defined by the Integrated Rate Error (IRE) requirements. The data are used to adjust instrument scanning. As we show in this paper, the in-flight performance of the GN&C (Guidance, Navigation and Control) design provides the necessary capabilities to achieve the demanding GOES-R mission objectives while its robustness enabled the simultaneous operation of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) prime and redundant cryocoolers (CCs) to resolve an in-flight cooling anomaly on GOES-17.

Line-of-Sight↗

Radio propagation for space communications systems

This paper presents a review of the most recent information on the effects of the earth's atmosphere on space communications systems. Models and techniques used in the prediction of atmospheric effects as influenced by frequency, geography, elevation angle, and type of transmission are discussed. Recent data on performance characteristics obtained from direct measurements on satellite links operating to above 30 GHz are reviewed. Particular emphasis is placed on the effects of precipitation on the earth-space path, including rain attenuation, and rain and ice-particle depolarization. Sky noise, antenna gain degradation, scintillations, and bandwidth coherence are also discussed. The impact of the various propagation factors on communications system design criteria is presented. These criteria include link reliability, power margins, noise contributions, modulation and polarization factors, channel crosstalk, error-rate, and bandwidth limitations.

Ippolito, L. J.↗

X-Ray Detection and Processing Models for Spacecraft Navigation and Timing

The current primary method of deepspace navigation is the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN). High-performance navigation is achieved using Delta Differential One-Way Range techniques that utilize simultaneous observations from multiple DSN sites, and incorporate observations of quasars near the line-of-sight to a spacecraft in order to improve the range and angle measurement accuracies. Over the past four decades, x-ray astronomers have identified a number of xray pulsars with pulsed emissions having stabilities comparable to atomic clocks. The x-ray pulsar-based navigation and time determination (XNAV) system uses phase measurements from these sources to establish autonomously the position of the detector, and thus the spacecraft, relative to a known reference frame, much as the Global Positioning System (GPS) uses phase measurements from radio signals from several satellites to establish the position of the user relative to an Earth-centered fixed frame of reference. While a GPS receiver uses an antenna to detect the radio signals, XNAV uses a detector array to capture the individual xray photons from the x-ray pulsars. The navigation solution relies on detailed xray source models, signal processing, navigation and timing algorithms, and analytical tools that form the basis of an autonomous XNAV system. Through previous XNAV development efforts, some techniques have been established to utilize a pulsar pulse time-of-arrival (TOA) measurement to correct a position estimate. One well-studied approach, based upon Kalman filter methods, optimally adjusts a dynamic orbit propagation solution based upon the offset in measured and predicted pulse TOA. In this delta position estimator scheme, previously estimated values of spacecraft position and velocity are utilized from an onboard orbit propagator. Using these estimated values, the detected arrival times at the spacecraft of pulses from a pulsar are compared to the predicted arrival times defined by the pulsar s pulse timing model. A discrepancy provides an estimate of the spacecraft position offset, since an error in position will relate to the measured time offset of a pulse along the line of sight to the pulsar. XNAV researchers have been developing additional enhanced approaches to process the photon TOAs to arrive at an estimate of spacecraft position, including those using maximum-likelihood estimation, digital phase locked loops, and "single photon processing" schemes that utilize all available time data associated with each photon. Using pulsars from separate, non-coplanar locations provides range and range-rate measurements in each pulsar s direction. Combining these different pulsar measurements solves for offsets in position and velocity in three dimensions, and provides accurate overall navigation for deep space vehicles.

Sheikh, Suneel↗

Mapping Global Forest Age from Forest Inventories, Biomass and Climate Data

Forest age can determine the capacity of a forest to uptake carbon from the atmosphere. However, a lack of global diagnostics that reflect the forest stage and associated disturbance regimes hampers the quantification of age-related differences in forest carbon dynamics. This study provides a new global distribution of forest age circa 2010, estimated using a machine learning approach trained with more than 40 000 plots using forest inventory, biomass and climate data. First, an evaluation against the plot-level measurements of forest age reveals that the data-driven method has a relatively good predictive capacity of classifying old-growth vs. non-old-growth (precision = 0.81 and 0.99 for old-growth and non-old-growth, respectively) forests and estimating corresponding forest age estimates (NSE = 0.6 – Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency – and RMSE = 50 years – root-mean-square error). However, there are systematic biases of overestimation in young- and underestimation in old-forest stands, respectively. Globally, we find a large variability in forest age with the old-growth forests in the tropical regions of Amazon and Congo, young forests in China, and intermediate stands in Europe. Furthermore, we find that the regions with high rates of deforestation or forest degradation (e.g. the arc of deforestation in the Amazon) are composed mainly of younger stands. Assessment of forest age in the climate space shows that the old forests are either in cold and dry regions or warm and wet regions, while young–intermediate forests span a large climatic gradient. Finally, comparing the presented forest age estimates with a series of regional products reveals differences rooted in different approaches and different in situ observations and global-scale products. Despite showing robustness in cross-validation results, additional methodological insights on further developments should as much as possible harmonize data across the different approaches. The forest age dataset presented here provides additional insights into the global distribution of forest age to better understand the global dynamics in the forest water and carbon cycles. The forest age datasets are openly available at https://doi.org/10.17871/ForestAgeBGI.2021 (Besnard et al., 2021).

Simon Besnard↗