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At least 379 records · Page 21

High-Performance Rh 2 P Electrocatalyst for Efficient Water Splitting

The search for active, stable, and cost-efficient electrocatalysts for hydrogen production via water splitting could make a substantial impact on energy technologies that do not rely on fossil fuels. Here we report the synthesis of rhodium phosphide electrocatalyst with low metal loading in the form of nanocubes (NCs) dispersed in high-surface-area carbon (Rh2P/C) by a facile solvo-thermal approach. The Rh2P/C NCs exhibit remarkable performance for hydrogen evolution reaction and oxygen evolution reaction compared to Rh/C and Pt/C catalysts. The atomic structure of the Rh2P NCs was directly observed by annular dark-field scanning transmission electron microscopy, which revealed a phosphorus-rich outermost atomic layer. Combined experimental and computational studies suggest that surface phosphorus plays a crucial role in determining the robust catalyst properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Aerosols at the Poles: An Aerocom Phase II Multi-Model Evaluation

Atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic and natural sources reach the polar regions through long-range transport and affect the local radiation balance. Such transport is, however, poorly constrained in present-day global climate models, and few multi-model evaluations of polar anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing exist. Here we compare the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from simulations with 16 global aerosol models from the AeroCom Phase II model intercomparison project with available observations at both poles. We show that the annual mean multi-model median is representative of the observations in Arctic, but that the intermodel spread is large. We also document the geographical distribution and seasonal cycle of the AOD for the individual aerosol species: black carbon (BC) from fossil fuel and biomass burning, sulfate, organic aerosols (OAs), dust, and sea-salt. For a subset of models that represent nitrate and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), we document the role of these aerosols at high latitudes. The seasonal dependence of natural and anthropogenic aerosols differs with natural aerosols peaking in winter (seasalt) and spring (dust), whereas AOD from anthropogenic aerosols peaks in late spring and summer. The models produce a median annual mean AOD of 0.07 in the Arctic (defined here as north of 60 degrees N). The models also predict a noteworthy aerosol transport to the Antarctic (south of 70 degrees S) with a resulting AOD varying between 0.01 and 0.02. The models have estimated the shortwave anthropogenic radiative forcing contributions to the direct aerosol effect (DAE) associated with BC and OA from fossil fuel and biofuel (FF), sulfate, SOAs, nitrate, and biomass burning from BC and OA emissions combined. The Arctic modelled annual mean DAE is slightly negative (-0.12 W m(exp. -2), dominated by a positive BC FF DAE in spring and a negative sulfate DAE in summer. The Antarctic DAE is governed by BC FF. We perform sensitivity experiments with one of the AeroCom models (GISS modelE) to investigate how regional emissions of BC and sulfate and the lifetime of BC influence the Arctic and Antarctic AOD. A doubling of emissions in eastern Asia results in a 33 percent increase in Arctic AOD of BC. A doubling of the BC lifetime results in a 39 percent increase in Arctic AOD of BC. However, these radical changes still fall within the AeroCom model range.

Sand, Maria↗

Future of the North American Carbon Cycle: Chapter - 19

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, primarily due to fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, are expected to continue to drive changes in both climate and the terrestrial and ocean carbon cycles. Over the past two-to-three decades, there has been considerable effort to understand how terrestrial and oceanic systems behave (in response to rising atmospheric CO2 and changing climate conditions), quantify the dynamics of system responses to environmental change, and project how the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycle will interact with, and influence, future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. In this presentation, we will summarize key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and drivers and associated consequences of these changes, as reported in Chapter 19 of the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). The findings not only capture projections of emissions from fossil fuel and changes in land cover and land use, but also highlight the decline in future carbon uptake capacity of North American carbon reservoirs and soil carbon losses from the Northern high-latitudes. Such a discussion of future carbon cycle changes is new in SOCCR-2, yet timely. It underlines the progress made since the release of the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-1) in 2007 in identifying the vulnerability of key carbon pools and their co-evolution with changing climatic conditions. We will also discuss key knowledge gaps and outline a set of future research priorities, including both monitoring and modeling activities, that are necessary to improve projections of future changes to the North American carbon cycle and associated adaptation and resource-management decisions.

North America↗

Black Carbon in Estuarine (Coastal) High-molecular-weight Dissolved Organic Matter

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the ocean constitutes one of the largest pools of organic carbon in the biosphere, yet much of its composition is uncharacterized. Observations of black carbon (BC) particles (by-products of fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning) in the atmosphere, ice, rivers, soils and marine sediments suggest that this material is ubiquitous, yet the contribution of BC to the ocean s DOM pool remains unknown. Analysis of high-molecular-weight DOM isolated from surface waters of two estuaries in the northwest Atlantic Ocean finds that BC is a significant component of DOM, suggesting that river-estuary systems are important exporters of BC to the ocean through DOM. We show that BC comprises 4-7% of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at coastal ocean sites, which supports the hypothesis that the DOC pool is the intermediate reservoir in which BC ages prior to sedimentary deposition. Flux calculations suggest that BC could be as important as vascular plant-derived lignin in terms of carbon inputs to the ocean. Production of BC sequesters fossil fuel- and biomass-derived carbon into a refractory carbon pool. Hence, BC may represent a significant sink for carbon to the ocean.

Mannino, Antonio↗

New Tool Evaluates the Financial Viability of Pumped Storage Hydropower

The rapidly evolving electricity system with increasing variable renewable energy (VRE) resources provides both opportunities and challenges for the power sector. With the significant ramps and intermittency associated with VRE resources, the requirements and need for additional flexible resources increase. Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) provides flexibility to the electricity grid to replace fossil fuel plants, which are responsible for 25% of U.S. emissions. PSH projects support various aspects of power system operations, including flexibility, ramping capability, energy, ancillary service, black start, and others. The significant potential of hydropower requires understanding the different value drivers to the electricity system specific to the location of a project and then optimizing the plant for the different system values. Thus, determining the value of PSH projects and their many services and contributions to the electricity system can be a challenge for potential developers, system owners, regulators, policy makers, and consultants.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Upgraded biogas from municipal solid waste for natural gas substitution and CO{sub 2} reduction – A case study of Austria, Italy, and Spain

Highlights: • Biogas can be upgraded to create biomethane, a substitute to natural gas. • Biogas upgrading was applied to landfills and anaerobic digestors in 3 countries. • Up to 0.6% of a country’s consumption of natural gas could be replaced by biomethane. • Italy could save 46% of the national CO{sub 2} emissions attributed to the waste sector. • Scenarios were created to increase biomethane production. - Abstract: Biogas is rich in methane and can be further purified through biogas upgrading technologies, presenting a viable alternative to natural gas. Landfills and anaerobic digestors treating municipal solid waste are a large source of such biogas. They therefore offer an attractive opportunity to tap into this potential source of natural gas while at the same time minimizing the global warming impact resulting from methane emissions in waste management schemes (WMS) and fossil fuel consumption reduction. This study looks at the current municipal solid waste flows of Spain, Italy, and Austria over one year (2009), in order to determine how much biogas is generated. Then it examines how much natural gas could be substituted by using four different biogas upgrading technologies. Based on current waste generation rates, exploratory but realistic WMS were created for each country in order to maximize biogas production and potential for natural gas substitution. It was found that the potential substitution of natural gas by biogas resulting from the current WMS seems rather insignificant: 0.2% for Austria, 0.6% for Italy and 0.3% for Spain. However, if the WMS is redesigned to maximize biogas production, these figures can increase to 0.7% for Austria, 1% for Italy and 2% for Spain. Furthermore, the potential CO{sub 2} reduction as a consequence of capturing the biogas and replacing fossil fuel can result in up to a 93% reduction of the annual national waste greenhouse gas emissions of Spain and Italy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Renewable Thermal Hybridization Framework for Industrial Process Heat Applications

Renewable thermal energy systems (RTES) could be hybridized with different renewable options (e.g., flat plate collectors (FPCs) with parabolic collectors), or combined with existing heat supplies (e.g., fossil fuels), to give options for targeted solar IPH applications, industrial decarbonization and the reduction of fuel consumption. Buildings and industrial thermal energy applications require different temperature ranges, quantities, and rates of thermal energy, and as such require flexible, cost competitive solutions, able to provide heat over various temperature ranges. Hybrid solutions and thermal energy storage (TES) will be important for the dispatch of heat at optimal times needed by the demand side of the buildings and industrial applications. A variety of tools and platforms, such as the System Advisor Model (SAM), can provide hourly thermal yield simulations from single renewable energy (RE) technology options, including FPCs or CSP for solar IPH. We have investigated a variety of approaches to hybrid system modeling for RTES at different temperatures or combinations of technologies and developed an initial framework. The hybridization framework starts by creating a heat stream and raising the temperature of that heat stream by various combinations of RE technologies and other sources such as fossil fuels, new fuels or electric heating in multiple stages, with options for TES and/or waste heat recovery (WHR).

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Radiative Forcing of the Direct Aerosol Effect from AeroCom Phase II Simulations

We report on the AeroCom Phase II direct aerosol effect (DAE) experiment where 16 detailed global aerosol models have been used to simulate the changes in the aerosol distribution over the industrial era. All 16 models have estimated the radiative forcing (RF) of the anthropogenic DAE, and have taken into account anthropogenic sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols (OA) from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass burning emissions. In addition several models have simulated the DAE of anthropogenic nitrate and anthropogenic influenced secondary organic aerosols (SOA). The model simulated all-sky RF of the DAE from total anthropogenic aerosols has a range from −0.58 to −0.02 W m(sup−2), with a mean of −0.27 W m(sup−2 for the 16 models. Several models did not include nitrate or SOA and modifying the estimate by accounting for this with information slightly strengthens the mean. Modifying the model estimates for missing aerosol components and for the time period 1750 to 2010 results in a mean RF for the DAE of −0.35 W m(sup−2). Compared to AeroCom Phase I (Schulz et al., 2006) we find very similar spreads in both total DAE and aerosol component RF. However, the RF of the total DAE is stronger negative and RF from BC from fossil fuel and biofuel emissions are stronger positive in the present study than in the previous AeroCom study.We find a tendency for models having a strong (positive) BC RF to also have strong (negative) sulphate or OA RF. This relationship leads to smaller uncertainty in the total RF of the DAE compared to the RF of the sum of the individual aerosol components. The spread in results for the individual aerosol components is substantial, and can be divided into diversities in burden, mass extinction coefficient (MEC), and normalized RF with respect to AOD. We find that these three factors give similar contributions to the spread in results

Computer simulation↗

Impact of Detailed Parameter Modeling of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines on Production Cost Simulation: Preprint

Flexible resources are increasingly important as variable renewable energy deployment in the power system increases. Although many systems are transitioning away from fossil fuels, open-cycle gas turbines are likely to play an important balancing role for some time, thus requiring accurate modeling of their operational parameters. This paper explores the impact of detailed representation of three operational parameters - start- up costs, run-up rates, and forced outage rates - in the production cost model of a system as it adopts higher levels of wind and solar. Using PLEXOS simulations of the NREL-118 bus test system, the study examines how more detailed parameter modeling affects outcomes such as the number of start-ups and shutdowns, ramping and total generation costs for open-cycle gas turbines, as renewable energy levels increase. The results suggest the value of detailed parameter modeling and continued research on combustion turbines' ability to provide flexibility.

economic dispatch↗

Modeling Atmospheric CO2 Processes to Constrain the Missing Sink

We report on a NASA supported modeling effort to reduce uncertainty in carbon cycle processes that create the so-called missing sink of atmospheric CO2. Our overall objective is to improve characterization of CO2 source/sink processes globally with improved formulations for atmospheric transport, terrestrial uptake and release, biomass and fossil fuel burning, and observational data analysis. The motivation for this study follows from the perspective that progress in determining CO2 sources and sinks beyond the current state of the art will rely on utilization of more extensive and intensive CO2 and related observations including those from satellite remote sensing. The major components of this effort are: 1) Continued development of the chemistry and transport model using analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, with comparison to real time data in both forward and inverse modes; 2) An advanced biosphere model, constrained by remote sensing data, coupled to the global transport model to produce distributions of CO2 fluxes and concentrations that are consistent with actual meteorological variability; 3) Improved remote sensing estimates for biomass burning emission fluxes to better characterize interannual variability in the atmospheric CO2 budget and to better constrain the land use change source; 4) Evaluating the impact of temporally resolved fossil fuel emission distributions on atmospheric CO2 gradients and variability. 5) Testing the impact of existing and planned remote sensing data sources (e.g., AIRS, MODIS, OCO) on inference of CO2 sources and sinks, and use the model to help establish measurement requirements for future remote sensing instruments. The results will help to prepare for the use of OCO and other satellite data in a multi-disciplinary carbon data assimilation system for analysis and prediction of carbon cycle changes and carbodclimate interactions.

Kawa, S. R.↗

Characterization of Oil and Gas Drill Cuttings for Critical Mineral Recovery and Reuse Potential as Soil Supplements

Expansion of unconventional oil and natural gas production over the last decade in the United States has resulted in record production of natural gas and oil in 2024. Millions of tons of drill cuttings generated from shale gas development are currently disposed of in landfills. Converting these cuttings into value product(s) such as critical minerals (CMs) and soil supplements, has the potential of reducing environmental impact of fossil fuel exploration. In this study we characterize the CM distribution and extractability from collected drill cuttings and core samples from major U.S. shale formations. A four-step sequential extraction, consisting of a sonicated soap step, sonicated EDTA step , mildly reducing agent, and a oxidizing agent, was developed to simultaneously extract CMs and convert the drill cuttings into soil supplements. Viability of converted drill cuttings as soil supplement was determined with a seedling growth experiment. Results show high concentrations of vanadium (V) (up to 1575 ppm, barite (up to 5 wt. %), and rare earth elements (REE) concentrations (up to 253 ppm). High extractability of selected critical minerals such as REE (19-50%) and Ba (10-58%) show promising results. Preliminary results show seedling growth in a mixture of converted drill cuttings with soil. These results show the potential for recovery of CMs from drill cuttings as an alternative domestic and the reduction of the environmental impact of fossil fuel production.

Barczok, Maximilian↗

Missouri Agricultural Energy Saving Team-A Revolutionary Opportunity (MAESTRO)

The Missouri Agricultural Energy Saving Team-A Revolutionary Opportunity (MAESTRO) program brought together a team of representatives from government, academia, and private industry to enhance the availability of energy efficiency services for small livestock producers in the State of Missouri. The Missouri Department of Agriculture (MDA) managed the project via a subcontract with the University of Missouri (MU), College of Agriculture Food and Natural Resources, MU Extension, the MU College of Human Environmental Sciences, the MU College of Engineering, and the Missouri Agricultural and Small Business Development Authority (MASBDA). MU teamed with EnSave, Inc, a nationally-recognized expert in agricultural energy efficiency to assist with marketing, outreach, provision of farm energy audits and customer service. MU also teamed with independent home contractors to facilitate energy audits of the farm buildings and homes of these livestock producers. The goals of the project were to: (1) improve the environment by reducing fossil fuel emissions and reducing the total energy used on small animal farms; (2) stimulate the economy of local and regional communities by creating or retaining jobs; and (3) improve the profitability of Missouri livestock producers by reducing their energy expenditures. Historically, Missouri scientists/engineers conducted programs on energy use in agriculture, such as in equipment, grain handling and tillage practices. The MAESTRO program was the first to focus strictly on energy efficiency associated with livestock production systems in Missouri and to investigate the applicability and potential of addressing energy efficiency in animal production from a building efficiency perspective. A. Project Objectives The goal of the MAESTRO program was to strengthen the financial viability and environmental soundness of Missouri's small animal farms by helping them implement energy efficient technologies for the production facility, farm buildings, and the homes on these farms. The expected measurable outcomes of the project were to improve the environment and stimulate the economy by: • Reducing annual fossil fuel emissions by 1,942 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, reducing the total annual energy use on at least 323 small animal farms and 100 farm homes by at least 8,000 kWh and 2,343 therms per farm. • Stimulating the economy by creating or retaining at least 69 jobs, and saving small animal farmers an average of $2,071 per farm in annual energy expenditures. B. Project Scope The MAESTRO team chose the target population of small farms because while all agriculture is traditionally underserved in energy efficiency programs, small farms were particularly underserved because they lack the financial resources and access to energy efficiency technologies that larger farms deploy. The MAESTRO team reasoned that energy conservation, financial and educational programs developed while serving the agricultural community could serve as a national model for other states and their agricultural sectors. The target population was approximately 2,365 small animal farm operations in Missouri, specifically those farms that were not by definition a confined animal feeding operation (CAFO). The program was designed to create jobs by training Missouri contractors and Missouri University Extension staff how to conduct farm audits. The local economy would be stimulated by an increase in construction activity and an increasing demand for energy efficient farm equipment. Additionally, the energy savings were deemed critical in keeping Missouri farms in business. This project leveraged funds using a combination of funds from the Missouri Department of Natural Resources’ Missouri Energy Center and its Soil and Water Conservation Program, from the state's Linked Deposits, MASBDA's agricultural loan guarantee programs, and through the in-kind contribution of faculty and staff time to the project from these agencies and MU. Several hundred Missouri livestock producers were contacted during the MAESTRO project. Of the livestock producers, 254 invited the team to conduct a farm energy assessment which complied with ASABE 612. A total of 147 livestock farm upgrades were implemented, representing 57.5 percent of the farms for which a farm energy assessment was completed. This represented a statewide average annual savings of 1,088,324 kWh and 75,516 therms. The team also reviewed the condition of the livestock producer’s home(s). A total of 106 home energy assessments were completed and 48 individual homes implemented their recommended upgrades, representing 45 percent of the farm homes for which an energy assessment was completed. This represented a statewide average annual savings of 323,029 kWh, and 769.4 therms. More of these farmers likely would have updated their homes but the funding to incentivize them fell short. In spite of the shortfall in incentive funds, some farmers still updated their homes as they saw the value in making these changes to their home.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A probabilistic analysis of cumulative carbon emissions and long-term planetary warming

Efforts to mitigate and adapt to long-term climate change could benefit greatly from probabilistic estimates of cumulative carbon emissions due to fossil fuel burning and resulting CO 2 -induced planetary warming. Here we demonstrate the use of a reduced-form model to project these variables. We performed simulations using a large-ensemble framework with parametric uncertainty sampled to produce distributions of future cumulative emissions and consequent planetary warming. A hind-cast ensemble of simulations captured 1980–2012 historical CO 2 emissions trends and an ensemble of future projection simulations generated a distribution of emission scenarios that qualitatively resembled the suite of Representative and Extended Concentration Pathways. The resulting cumulative carbon emission and temperature change distributions are characterized by 5–95th percentile ranges of 0.96–4.9 teratonnes C (Tt C) and 1.4 °C–8.5 °C, respectively, with 50th percentiles at 3.1 Tt C and 4.7 °C. Within the wide range of policy-related parameter combinations that produced these distributions, we found that low-emission simulations were characterized by both high carbon prices and low costs of non-fossil fuel energy sources, suggesting the importance of these two policy levers in particular for avoiding dangerous levels of climate warming. With this analysis we demonstrate a probabilistic approach to the challenge of identifying strategies for limiting cumulative carbon emissions and assessing likelihoods of surpassing dangerous temperature thresholds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard to decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. CCUS involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial processes or power generation and utilizing it for other purposes, such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR), or storing the captured CO 2 underground. CCUS technology can reduce the environmental impact of continued fossil fuel use while smoothing the transition to a low-carbon economy. CCUS can create new economic opportunities, such as the development of new industries and job creation, and can enhance energy security by diversifying energy sources. For these reasons, enabling CCUS has become a key objective of the Biden-Harris administration’s clean energy policy and has received bipartisan support. Despite its environmental and economic potential, CCUS faces multiple barriers to widespread deployment. One of the main challenges is the high cost and technical difficulty of implementing and operating large-scale CCUS infrastructure. CCUS remains a relatively expensive way to reduce carbon emissions (e.g., compared to solar photovoltaic technology’s displacement of coal generation). Additionally, financial incentives and supportive policies like those enacted to support solar photovoltaic development, especially at the state level, are inconsistent or nonexistent, which can discourage investment in CCUS projects. There are also technical challenges associated with safe and secure underground CO 2 storage and the development of new carbon utilization technologies. Public opposition to various aspects of CCUS technologies, ranging from concerns that CCUS will extend reliance on fossil fuels to CCUS infrastructure being sited in disadvantaged communities, is a growing challenge. This paper focuses on another significant barrier to broad CCUS deployment: the need for considerable expansion of the dedicated land-based CO 2 pipeline network in the United States to meet CCUS goals and the unique regulatory challenges to its development. To reach carbon emissions targets in the United States by 2050, CCUS technology will need to be supported by tens of thousands of miles of CO 2 pipelines. Estimates range from a minimum of roughly 29,000 pipeline miles (according to a 2020 Great Plains Institute study) to 66,000 pipeline miles (as per a 2021 Princeton University–led study). As of October 2022, however, the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) reports fewer than 5,400 miles of U.S. pipelines carrying CO 2 . This deficit—and what it means for the prospect of moving substantially larger quantities of CO 2 from source to use or storage—threatens to stifle the development of CCUS projects and technologies identified as an important tool to meet emissions targets. The current regulatory landscape facing CO 2 pipeline development can best be described as uncertain. At the federal level, the U.S. DOT Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) oversees safety regulation of pipelines transporting hazardous materials, including CO 2 upon commencement of operation. However, PHMSA’s definition of CO 2 as “a fluid consisting of more than 90 percent CO 2 molecules compressed to a supercritical state” has not been updated since its 1991 addition to the Federal Register. Because CO 2 can be transported in a gaseous, liquid, or supercritical state (indeed, the physical state of CO 2 can fluctuate within a single pipeline due to environmental changes), doubts persist about the extent of PHMSA’s purview—and raise questions about what, if anything, states should do to address this apparent gap. PHMSA has begun a major revision of its existing rules, but the agency does not expect a first draft before 2024. Economic oversight of CO 2 pipelines is even less clear. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Surface Transportation Board (STB)—which regulate the rates of interstate oil/natural gas and non-energy pipelines, respectively—have both declined jurisdiction over interstate CO 2 pipelines. This presumably leaves economic regulation to state and/or local governments, but few if any states have the laws or resources in place to oversee just and reasonable rates. Further, the interstate nature of CO 2 pipeline development creates questions around how different states should align their rate-making decisions. Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation Currently, regulatory responsibilities regarding CO 2 pipeline siting and permitting fall to state and local governments. The variety of laws and regulations across the country, however, creates a maze of requirements for pipeline developers to navigate. To secure necessary permits, most states require pipeline companies to be “common carriers” that provide transport service to the public at uniform rates. However, the specific definition of that term varies. Some states require clear evidence that a pipeline services the public, while others automatically deem any pipeline company transporting energy products or hazardous materials to be a “common carrier”—with little consideration for accessibility to third parties. Other states have eschewed common-carrier terminology entirely, placing private and publicly accessible pipelines on equal footing. Much like the variation in common-carrier requirements, laws governing eminent domain authority to secure rights-of-way (ROW) to commence construction on a planned pipeline route differ by state. Several states have no laws or rules governing CO 2 pipelines. In addition to creating questions about whether long-standing rules for other pipelines (e.g., natural gas or petroleum products) apply to CO 2 , this policy vacuum leaves local governments as the sole authority over sections of pipe within their boundaries. With dozens of counties along a given route, the probability of inconsistent regulation of the same pipeline is significant. Even in states with CO 2 pipeline laws in place, local regulatory attempts to address rising concerns over pipeline routing and safety have triggered lawsuits by pipeline companies seeking to delimit areas of federal, state, and local government responsibility. Meanwhile, legislators across the country have introduced bills to restrict the application of eminent domain to CO 2 pipeline projects, which could threaten a key means of securing ROW that companies cannot secure through negotiation with landowners. Taken separately, any of these regulatory issues—the narrow federal definition of CO 2 , FERC’s and STB’s decisions that CO 2 pipelines are not within their jurisdiction, and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws regulating CO 2 pipeline technologies—are extremely difficult to resolve. Adding the required scale of CO 2 pipeline expansion and the currently identified narrow window of time in which to reach climate target goals, the task becomes even more difficult—and raises a host of urgent questions for regulators. How should CO 2 be defined in federal regulations to ensure consistent safety standards across the country? What is the potential impact radius of a CO 2 pipeline rupture, and how should that inform local emergency response? In the absence of centralized federal oversight, what should state legislatures do to increase alignment for interstate CO 2 pipeline projects? This paper intends to serve as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Contemporary Analysis of the O'Neill-Glaser Model for Space-Based Solar Power and Habitat Construction

In 1975 Gerard O Neill published in the journal Science a model for the construction of solar power satellites. He found that the solar power satellites suggested by Peter Glaser would be too massive to launch economically from Earth, but could be financially viable if the workforce was permanently located in free space habitats and if lunar and asteroid materials were used for construction. All new worldwide electrical generating capacity could be then achieved by solar power satellites. The project would financially break even in about 20 years after which it would generate substantial income selling power below fossil fuel prices. Two NASA / Stanford University led studies at Ames Research center during the summers of 1974 and 1976 found the concept technically sound and developed a detailed financial parametric model. Although the project was not undertaken when suggested in the 1970s, several contemporary issues make pursuing the O Neill -- Glaser concept more compelling today. First, our analysis suggests that if in the first ten years of construction that small habitats (compared to the large vista habitats envisioned by O Neill) supporting approximately 300 people were utilized, development costs of the program and the time for financial break even could be substantially improved. Second, the contemporary consensus is developing that carbon free energy is required to mitigate global climate change. It is estimated that 300 GW of new carbon free energy would be necessary per year to stabilize global atmospheric carbon. This is about 4 times greater energy demand than was considered by the O Neill Glaser model. Our analysis suggests that after the initial investments in lunar mining and space manufacturing and transportation, that the profit margin for producing space solar power is very high (even when selling power below fossil fuel prices). We have investigated the financial scaling of ground launched versus space derived space solar power satellites. We find that for the carbon mitigation case even modernized ground launched space solar power satellites are not financially viable. For space derived solar power satellites, however, the increased demand makes them break even substantially sooner and yield much higher profit. Third, current awareness is increasing about the dangers of humanity remaining a single planet species. Our technological power has been increasing relative to the size of the planet Earth. Since the middle of the 20th century our technological power has grown large relative to our planet's size. This presents a very real potential for human self-extinction. We argue that the potential for human self-extinction is increasing with time in proportion to the exponential growth of our technological power making self-extinction likely within this century if humanity remains a single planet species. The O Neill model of multiple independent free space habitats, it is argued, can protect humanity from extinction in the same way that portfolio diversification protects ones assets from total loss. We show that about 1 million people for the electricity only case, and about 1 billion people for the carbon mitigation case, can be provided with permanent space habitats and transportation from Earth in 30 years and can be funded by the space derived solar power satellite program. 1.2 Scope of this Chapter The goal of this chapter is to illustrate the power and importance of the O'Neill-Glaser concept in the context of human survival and maintaining a healthy planet Earth. We argue that at this point in human history our technological power is too dangerous to our selves and our home planet for us not to expand into space. We show by the models presented in the chapter that the imminent dangers of global warming and human self-extinction mandate that humanity move aggressively into the solar system in this generation. We show that the production of solar power satellites using space resources and with a work foe living in space provides a viable financial model to mitigate CO2 preventing the worst global warming scenarios, and safeguards humanity against self-extinction by providing hundreds of habitats and a billion people living in space within about 35 years. To accomplish this goal we need only consider the classic O'Neill-Glaser model which was parameterized for 1970's technological projections. Only habitat size optimization for the first ten years of production is added. This is a conservative approach since the innovations of the last 30 years will make the financial projections more favorable. However, the classic O'Neill-Glaser model represented a broad technological consensus. The model is well documented in the references and our calculations can be easily reproduced In this chapter the economics of the O Neill - Glaser model is compared with models that rely exclusively on Earth launched materials. Although many studies of Earth launched Solar Power Satellites have been made, we found that the NASA "Fresh Look Study" was the most comprehensive and well documented. It also provided one of the most optimistic Earth launch financial projections. We thus chose it for comparison purposes.

Curreri, Peter A.↗

Photovoltaic at Hollywood and Desert Breeze Recreational Centers

In accordance with the goals of the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy for promoting solar energy as clean, carbon-free and cost-effective, the County believed that a recreational center was an ideal place to promote solar energy technologies to the public. This project included the construction of solar electricity generation facilities (40kW) at two Clark County facility sites, Desert Breeze Recreational Center and Hollywood Recreational Center, with educational kiosks and Green Boxes for classroom instruction. The major objectives and goals of this Solar Project include demonstration of state of the art technologies for the generation of electricity from solar technology and the creation of an informative and educational tool in regards to the benefits and process of generating alternative energy. Clark County partnered with Anne Johnson (design architect/consultant), Affiliated Engineers Inc. (AEI), Desert Research Institute (DRI), and Morse Electric. The latest photovoltaic technologies were used in the project to help create the greatest expected energy savings for60443 each recreational center. This coupled with the data created from the monitoring system will help Clark County and NREL further understand the real time outputs from the system. The educational portion created with AEI and DRI incorporates material for all ages with a focus on K - 12. The AEI component is an animated story telling the fundamentals of how sunlight is turned into electricity and DRI‘s creation of Solar Green Boxes brings environmental education into the classroom. In addition to the educational component for the public, the energy that is created through the photovoltaic system also translates into saved money and health benefits for the general public. This project has helped Clark County to further add to its own energy reduction goals created by the energy management agenda (Resolution to Encourage Sustainability) and the County’s Eco-initiative. Each site has installed photovoltaic panels on the existing roof structures that exhibit suitable solar exposure. The generation systems utilize solar energy creating electricity used for the facility’s lighting system and other electrical requirements. Unused electricity is sent to the electric utility grid, often at peak demand times. Educational signage, kiosks and information have been included to inform and expand the public’s understanding of solar energy technology. The Solar Green Boxes were created for further hands on classroom education of solar power. In addition, data is sent by a Long Term PV performance monitoring system, complete with data transmission to NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory), located in Golden, CO. This system correlates local solar irradiance and weather with power production. The expected outcomes of this Solar Project are as follows: (1) Successful photovoltaic electricity generation technologies to capture solar energy in a useful form of electrical energy. (2) Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and environmental degradation resulting from reduced energy demand from traditional electricity sources such as fossil fuel fired and nuclear power plants. (3) Advance the research and development of solar electricity generation. (4) The education of the general public in regards to the benefits of environmentally friendly electricity generation and Clark County’s efforts to encourage sustainable living practices. (5) To provide momentum for the nexus for future solar generation facilities in Clark County facilities and buildings and further the County’s energy reduction goals. (6) To ultimately contribute to the reduction of dependence on foreign oil and other unsustainable sources of energy. This Solar Project addresses several objectives and goals of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technology Program. The project improves the integration and performance of solar electricity directly through implementation of cutting edge technology. The project further addresses this goal by laying important ground work and infrastructure for integration into the utility grid in future related projects. There will also be added security, reliability, and diversity to the energy system by providing and using reliable, secure, distributed electricity in Clark County facilities as well as sending such electricity back into the utility electric grid. A final major objective met by the Solar Project will be the displacement of energy derived by fossil fuels with clean renewable energy created by photovoltaic panels.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quantifying airborne fraction trends and the destination of anthropogenic CO 2 by tracking carbon flows in a simple climate model

Abstract Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations have increased as a direct result of human activity and are at their highest level over the last 2 million years, with profound impacts on the Earth system. However, the magnitude and future dynamics of land and ocean carbon sinks are not well understood; therefore, the amount of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions that remain in the atmosphere (the airborne fraction) is poorly constrained. This work aims to quantify the sources and controls of atmospheric CO 2 , the fate of anthropogenic CO 2 over time, and the likelihood of a trend in the airborne fraction. We use Hector v3.0, a coupled simple climate and carbon cycle model with the novel ability to explicitly track carbon as it flows through the Earth system. We use key model parameters in a Monte Carlo analysis of 15 000 model runs from 1750 to 2300. Results are filtered for physical realism against historical observations and CMIP6 projection data, and we calculate the relative importance of parameters controlling how much anthropogenic carbon ends up in the atmosphere. Modeled airborne fraction was roughly 52%, consistent with observational studies. The overwhelming majority of model runs exhibited a negative trend in the airborne fraction from 1960–2020, implying that current-day land and ocean sinks are proportionally taking up more carbon than the atmosphere. However, the percentage of atmospheric CO 2 derived from anthropogenic origins can be much higher because of Earth system feedbacks. We find it peaks at over 90% between 2010–2050. Moreover, when looking at the destination of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions, only a quarter ends up in the atmosphere while more than half of emissions are taken up by the land sink on centennial timescales. This study evaluates the likelihood of airborne fraction trends and provides insights into the dynamics of anthropogenic CO 2 in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How structural differences influence cross-model consistency: An electric sector case study

Multiple models are often employed to describe a range of possible outcomes for one or more scenarios, yielding insights into causal relationships and their uncertainties. Electric sector capacity expansion scenarios are a common topic of such efforts due to the economic influence of the electric sector, but model results typically span a broad solution space despite efforts to harmonize input assumptions, making decision implications difficult to discern. This study investigates the relationship between input harmonization and cross-model scenario consistency under disparate electric sector scenarios. We compare cross-model consistency between two state-of-the-art electric sector capacity expansion models (GCAM-USA and ReEDS) for six electric sector scenarios comprising alternate assumptions about fossil fuel resource availability, technology innovation, and long-term economy-wide transitions under four harmonization configurations varying model representations of electricity demand, fuel prices, renewable resources, and capacity retirements. These comparisons reveal that cross-model consistency can vary across scenarios under a given harmonization configuration, suggesting that harmonization efforts must often be scenario-specific if comparable cross-model consistency is desired. Model structural differences can hinder consistency, and the impact of these differences can depend on the scenario. Ultimately, thorough harmonization can reveal insights into cross-model consistency, which can be used to tighten uncertainty bounds and improve the decision-making implications of multi-model activities.

Cohen, Stuart↗