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At least 379 records · Page 21

Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting

This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distinct drivers of recent seasonal precipitation increase over Central Asia: roles of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases

Observational evidence reveals a pronounced wetting trend over Central Asia in recent decades, with the most substantial increases occurring during winter and summer. Yet the extent to which the drivers of these changes differ seasonally remains unknown. Here, we use single-forcing experiments from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to examine the effects of various external forcings on winter and summer precipitation across Central Asia and to explore the physical mechanisms underlying seasonal precipitation changes. We find that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing mainly increases winter precipitation by enhancing atmospheric moisture content through warming. In contrast, in summer, Asian sulfate aerosols enhance precipitation by modulating the westerly jet, which strengthens atmospheric moisture transport into the region. Asian black carbon exerts an opposing influence that partially offsets the sulfate-induced effect. Further attribution analysis based on CMIP6 simulations reinforces these sensitivity results and shows that GHG forcing is the primary driver of winter precipitation increases whereas anthropogenic aerosols dominate summer trends. Future CMIP6 projections suggest that under moderate- to high-emission scenarios, winter precipitation will continue to rise due to increasing GHG concentrations, while summer precipitation may decline across much of Central Asia as a result of reduced aerosol emissions following Asian clean air policies. These findings highlight a distinct seasonality in the drivers of recent precipitation increase and suggest a plausible divergence in future winter and summer precipitation trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning reveals strong grid-scale dependence in the satellite N d –LWP relationship

The relationship between cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) and liquid water path (LWP) is highly uncertain yet crucial for determining the impact of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) on Earth's radiation budget. The N d -LWP relationship is examined using a machine learning (ML) random forest model applied to five years of satellite data at grid resolutions ranging from 10° to 0.05° in 12 distinct regions. In the subtropics, the shape of the N d -LWP relationship switches from an inverted-V at 1° grid-resolution to an “M” shape at 0.1° resolution with decreased $\frac{\textrm{dln⁡LWP}}{\textrm{dln⁡}N_d}$ sensitivity. Tropical and midlatitude regions generally show a more positive sensitivity. Cloud sampling and filtering also influence this slope, wherein the exclusion of thin clouds, as commonly performed to reduce retrieval uncertainty, leads to strongly negative sensitivity across all regions. Precipitation is primarily responsible for driving the strength of the sensitivity, with strong positive slopes in raining clouds and negative and/or neutral responses found in non-raining clouds. A new method to compute radiative forcing from the ML model shows a robust Twomey radiative forcing across all regions and grid resolutions. However, LWP and cloud fraction adjustments to the radiative forcing, which are ∼50 % or smaller than the Twomey effect, decrease to negligible values with higher spatial resolution data. As Earth system models move toward higher spatial resolutions in the future, evaluating the LWP and CF adjustment contributions to the radiative forcing budget at these finer resolutions will be essential for evaluation and model development.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions↗

Investigation of the Mechanical Degradation of Zinc-Based Cold Spray Coatings for Steel Pipelines

Internal corrosion in wet natural gas is a big challenge in the oil and gas industry due to corrosive constituents such as carbon dioxide (CO2), hydrogen sulfide (H2S), other forms of sulfur, and water in the gas stream. To mitigate internal corrosion, zinc-based cold spray coatings were designed for use in natural gas pipelines to increase the lifespan of the pipeline network. However, one of the requirements in designing internal coatings is the resistance of the coatings to mechanical forces applied on the pipeline's internal wall during pigging operations. These forces are primarily compressive and shear/friction forces. This study examines material properties that must be considered when evaluating mechanical considerations. To determine the viability of the developed coatings with respect to the shear/friction forces, the shear adhesion and wear resistance of the materials have been evaluated. Shear adhesion testing was performed with modified clevises to determine the shear stress required to cause adhesion failure at the coating/substrate interface. Scanning electron microscopy was utilized to characterize the interfaces after failure. Wear testing was performed on coatings and pipeline materials utilizing pin-on-drum testing. These tests display the stress limitations and wear that the coatings can tolerate from pigging.

mechanical degradation↗

Ponderomotive electron physics captured in a single-fluid extended magnetohydrodynamics model

The ponderomotive force, arising from the interaction between electromagnetic waves and plasma, plays a critical role in laser fusion, astrophysical plasmas, and laser diagnostics. Traditionally, modeling this force requires multi-fluid or particle-in-cell simulations due to its strong coupling to electron-scale dynamics. In this work, we demonstrate that a one-fluid, two-temperature extended magnetohydrodynamics (XMHD) model—augmented with a generalized Ohm's law (GOL) including electron inertia—can accurately reproduce key ponderomotive effects. We derive the ponderomotive force within this framework using a phasor-based approach and then validate its nonlinear manifestations through direct numerical simulations in the PERSEUS code, where steepening and density modulation phenomena typically associated with kinetic-scale models are reproduced. These results and prior work establish XMHD as a robust and efficient alternative for modeling nonlinear laser–plasma dynamics, bridging the gap between ideal MHD and fully kinetic approaches.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Overview of the EUROfusion Tokamak Exploitation programme in support of ITER and DEMO

Within the 9th European Framework programme, since 2021 EUROfusion is operating five tokamaks under the auspices of a single Task Force called ‘Tokamak Exploitation’. The goal is to benefit from the complementary capabilities of each machine in a coordinated way and help in developing a scientific output scalable to future largre machines. The programme of this Task Force ensures that ASDEX Upgrade, MAST-U, TCV, WEST and JET (since 2022) work together to achieve the objectives of Missions 1 and 2 of the EUROfusion Roadmap: i) demonstrate plasma scenarios that increase the success margin of ITER and satisfy the requirements of DEMO and, ii) demonstrate an integrated approach that can handle the large power leaving ITER and DEMO plasmas. The Tokamak Exploitation task force has therefore organized experiments on these two missions with the goal to strengthen the physics and operational basis for the ITER baseline scenario and for exploiting the recent plasma exhaust enhancements in all four devices (PEX: Plasma EXhaust) for exploring the solution for handling heat and particle exhaust in ITER and develop the conceptual solutions for DEMO. The ITER Baseline scenario has been developed in a similar way in ASDEX Upgrade, TCV and JET. Key risks for ITER such as disruptions and run-aways have been also investigated in TCV, ASDEX Upgrade and JET. Experiments have explored successfully different divertor configurations (standard, super-X, snowflakes) in MAST-U and TCV and studied tungsten melting in WEST and ASDEX Upgrade. The input from the smaller devices to JET has also been proven successful to set-up novel control schemes on disruption avoidance and detachment.

ASDEX upgrade↗

From Spin to Pseudospin Symmetry: The Origin of Magic Numbers in Nuclear Structure

Magic numbers lie at the heart of nuclear structure, reflecting enhanced stability in nuclei with closed shells. While the emergence of magic numbers beyond 20 is commonly attributed to strong spin-orbit coupling, the microscopic origin of the spin-orbit potential remains elusive, owing to its dependence on the resolution scale and renormalization scheme of nuclear forces. Here, we investigate the evolution of nuclear shell structure with varying momentum resolution in nuclear interactions derived from chiral effective field theory, using the similarity renormalization group to link different scales. We uncover a novel transition from spin symmetry to pseudospin symmetry as the resolution scale decreases, during which magic numbers emerge naturally. A similar pattern is found in calculations using relativistic one-boson-exchange potentials, underscoring the robustness of the phenomenon. This establishes a direct connection between realistic nuclear forces with a high resolution scale and effective nuclear forces at coarse-grained scales, offering a first-principles explanation for the origin of magic numbers and pseudospin symmetry in nuclear shell structure and new insights into the structure of exotic nuclei far from stability

Energy levels↗

Quantum stress and torsion distributions in the deuteron

Stress distributions in the deuteron are related to form factors of the asymmetric energy-momentum tensor through three-dimensional Fourier transforms. There are eleven such form factors, which we calculate in an impulse approximation. We compare the obtained form factors to prior results for the six form factors that have been previously calculated. We then elaborate on the formalism for relating the form factors to internal distributions of mass, mass flux, momentum, stresses, and forces, and obtain results for all of these distributions. We obtain the principal stresses for the symmetric part of the stress tensor, and show that the antisymmetric part describes the reorientation of fermion spin by torsion stress when the nucleon moves between the S and D waves. Force distributions in the nucleons depend on the so-called nonconserved form factors through the Cauchy momentum equation, and are nonradial owing to the presence of tensor forces and spin-orbit coupling.

QCD phenomenology↗

Compiled properties of nucleonic matter and nuclear and neutron star models from nonrelativistic and relativistic interactions

Here, this paper compiles the model parameters and zero-temperature properties of an extensive collection of published theoretical nuclear interactions, including 255 nonrelativistic (Skyrme-like) forces, 270 relativistic mean field (RMF) and point-coupling (RMF-PC) forces, and 13 Gogny-like forces. This forms the most exhaustive tabulation of model parameters to date. The properties of uniform symmetric matter and pure neutron matter at the saturation density are determined. Symmetry properties found from the second-order term of a Taylor expansion in neutron excess are compared with the energy difference of pure neutron and symmetric nuclear matter at the saturation density. Selected liquid-droplet model parameters, including the surface tension and surface symmetry energy, are determined for semi-infinite surfaces. Theoretical liquid droplet model neutron skin thicknesses of the neutron-rich closed-shell nuclei 48 Ca and 208 Pb are compared with published theoretical Hartree-Fock and experimental results. A similar comparison is made between theoretical liquid-droplet and experimental values of dipole polarizabilities. In addition, radii, binding energies, moments of inertia and tidal deformabilities of 1.2⁢M ⊙ , 1.4⁢M ⊙ and 1.6⁢M ⊙ neutron stars are computed. An extensive correlation analysis of bulk matter, nuclear structure, and low-mass neutron star properties is performed and compared with nuclear experiments and astrophysical observations.

nuclear astrophysics↗

Mechanism of Antiferroelectricity in Polycrystalline ZrO 2

The size and electric field dependent induction of polarization in antiferroelectric ZrO 2 is the key to several technological applications that are unimaginable a decade ago. However, the lack of a deeper understanding of the mechanism hinders progress. Molecular dynamics simulations of polycrystalline ZrO 2 , based on machine-learned interatomic forces with near ab initio quality, shed light on the fundamental mechanism of the size effect on the transition fields. Stress in the oxygen sublattice is the most important factor. The so constructed interatomic forces allow the calculation of the transition fields as a function of the ZrO 2 film thickness and predict the ferroelectricity at large thickness. The simulation results are validated with electrical and piezo response force microscopy measurements. The results allow a clear interpretation of the properties of the double-hysteresis loops as well as the construction of the free energy landscape of ZrO 2 grains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Non-Reciprocity, Metastability, and Dynamic Reconfiguration in Co-Assembly of Active and Passive Particles

Living organisms often exhibit non-reciprocal interactions where the forces acting on the objects are not equal in magnitude or opposite in direction. The combination of reciprocal and non-reciprocal interactions between synthetic building blocks remains largely unexplored. Here, out-of-equilibrium assemblies of non-motile isotropic passive and metal-patched motile active particles are formed by overlapping bulk interactions with directed self-propulsion. An external alternating current (AC) electric field generates concurrent dipolar and induced-charge electrophoretic forces between the particles which are evaluated using microscopy. The interaction force measurements allow to determine the degree of reciprocity in interactions, which is tunable by designing the active particle and its trajectory. While linearly-propelled active particles evade assembly with passive particles, helically propelled active particles form active-passive clusters with dynamic reconfiguration and long-lived metastability. Large clusters display programmable fluctuations and reconfigurability by controlling the fraction of active particles. The study establishes principles of integrating reciprocal and non-reciprocal interactions in guided colloidal assembly of reconfigurable metastable structures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Fluorophilic Sigma(σ)‐Lock Self‐Healable Copolymers

Abstract Although F‐Containing molecules and macromolecules are often used in molecular biology to increase the binding with Lewis acidic groups by introducing favorable C−F dipoles, there is virtually no experimental evidence and limited understanding of the nature of these interactions, especially their role in synthetic polymeric materials. These studies elucidate the molecular origin of inter‐ and intra‐Chain interactions responsible for self‐healing of F‐Containing copolymers composed of pentafluorostyrene and n‐butyl acrylate units (p(PFS/nBA). Guided by dynamic surface oscillating force (SOF) and spectroscopic measurements supported by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, these studies show that the reformation of σ‐σ orbitals in −C−F of PFS and CH 3 CH 2 − of nBA units enables the recovery of entropic energy via fluorophilic‐σ‐lock van der Waals forces when PFS/nBA molar ratios are ~50/50. The strength of these interactions determined experimentally for self‐healable PFS/nBA compositions is in the order ~0.3 kcal/mol which primarily comes from fluorophilic‐σ‐lock (~70 %) contributions. These interactions are significantly diminished for non‐self‐healable counterparts. Strongly polarized −C−F σ orbitals create lateral dipolar forces enhancing the affinity towards −C−H orbitals, facilitating energetically favorable interactions. Entropic recovery driven by non‐Covalent bonding offers a valuable tool in designing materials with unique functionalities, particularly self‐healable batteries and energy storage devices.

Gaikwad, Samruddhi↗

Fluorophilic Sigma(σ)‐Lock Self‐Healable Copolymers

Although F-Containing molecules and macromolecules are often used in molecular biology to increase the binding with Lewis acidic groups by introducing favorable C−F dipoles, there is virtually no experimental evidence and limited understanding of the nature of these interactions, especially their role in synthetic polymeric materials. These studies elucidate the molecular origin of inter- and intra-Chain interactions responsible for self-healing of F-Containing copolymers composed of pentafluorostyrene and n-butyl acrylate units (p(PFS/nBA). Guided by dynamic surface oscillating force (SOF) and spectroscopic measurements supported by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, these studies show that the reformation of σ-σ orbitals in −C−F of PFS and CH 3 CH 2 − of nBA units enables the recovery of entropic energy via fluorophilic-σ-lock van der Waals forces when PFS/nBA molar ratios are ~50/50. The strength of these interactions determined experimentally for self-healable PFS/nBA compositions is in the order ~0.3 kcal/mol which primarily comes from fluorophilic-σ-lock (~70 %) contributions. These interactions are significantly diminished for non-self-healable counterparts. Strongly polarized −C−F σ orbitals create lateral dipolar forces enhancing the affinity towards −C−H orbitals, facilitating energetically favorable interactions. Entropic recovery driven by non-Covalent bonding offers a valuable tool in designing materials with unique functionalities, particularly self-healable batteries and energy storage devices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

3D‐Printed Carbon Nanoneedle Electrodes for Dopamine Detection in Drosophila

In vivo electrochemistry in small brain regions or synapses requires nanoelectrodes with long straight tips for submicron scale measurements. Nanoelectrodes can be fabricated using a Nanoscribe two-photon printer, but annealed tips curl if they are long and thin. We propose a new pulling-force strategy to fabricate a straight carbon nanoneedle structure. A micron-width bridge is printed between two blocks. The annealed structure shrinks during pyrolysis, and the blocks create a pulling force to form a long, thin, and straight carbon bridge. Parameterization study and COMSOL modeling indicate changes in the block size, bridge size and length affect the pulling force and bridge shrinkage. Electrodes were printed on niobium wires, insulated with aluminum oxide, and the bridge cut with focused ion beam (FIB) to expose the nanoneedle tip. Annealed needle diameters ranged from 400 nm to 5.25 μm and length varied from 50.5 μm to 146 μm. The electrochemical properties are similar to glassy carbon, with good performance for dopamine detection with fast-scan cyclic voltammetry. Nanoelectrodes enable biological applications, such as dopamine detection in a specific Drosophila brain region. Long and thin nanoneedles are generally useful for other applications such as cellular sensing, drug delivery, or gas sensing.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Two Arctic Wintertime Boundary Layer States: Disentangling the Role of Cloud and Wind Regimes in Reanalysis and Observations During MOSAiC

The wintertime central Arctic atmosphere comprises a radiatively clear and a radiatively opaque state, which are linked to synoptic forcing and mixed-phase clouds. Weather and climate models often lack process representations surrounding these states, but prior work mostly treated the problem as an aggregate of synoptic conditions, resulting in partially overlapping biases. Here, we disaggregate the Arctic states and confront ERA5 reanalysis with observations from the MOSAiC campaign over the central Arctic sea ice during winter 2019/2020. Low-level winds and liquid water path (LWP) are combined to derive different synoptic classes. Results show that the clear state is primarily formed by weak/moderate winds and the absence of liquid-bearing clouds, while strong winds and enhanced LWP primarily form the radiatively opaque state. ERA5 struggles to reproduce these basic statistics, shows too weak sensitivity of thermal radiation to synoptic forcing, and overestimates thermal radiation for similar LWP amounts. The latter is caused by a warm bias, which has a pronounced inversion structure and is largest in clear and calm conditions. Under strong synoptic forcing, the warm bias is constant with height and discrepancies in mixed-phase cloud altitude appear. Separating synoptic conditions is regarded as useful for process-oriented evaluation of the Arctic troposphere in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Continuous Counter‐Current Microfluidic Liquid–Liquid Extraction Achieved Using a Pair of Wettable Screen Meshes

Continuous counter‐current microfluidic liquid–liquid extraction performs separations by flowing immiscible liquids in opposing directions within a single flow channel. In principle, this flow arrangement enables a large number of theoretical separation units in a small footprint, without using interstage valving, pumping, and phase separation. Despite its potential for excellent separation performance, this microfluidic scheme rarely appears in literature due to the requirement for capillary forces to be greater than hydrodynamic forces for stable flow. We present a novel microfluidic device and flow approaches that overcome this force‐balance challenge, enabling stable, long‐duration continuous counter‐current flow. Additionally, we cover a suite of methodologies for quantifying the performance of the microfluidic device, revealing the number of theoretical equilibrium stages achieved. The enabling technologies include a woven mesh screen‐based microfluidic device architecture that is easily fabricated outside of a clean room, surface functionalization strategies to promote conjugate (organic/aqueous) wettability, flow approaches to eliminate bubbles and carryover, and computer‐aided flow automation with optical measurement of extraction performance. The reported experiments lasted for over 36 h, terminated only at experiment conclusion, where the device still exhibited good performance. Automated Raman spectroscopy was used for solute quantitation of the ternary system tert‐butanol in a toluene/water matrix, a ternary system that was specifically chosen to analyze the device's performance with a small solute partition ratio and to enable in‐line Raman measurements of solute concentrations in both phases. The microfluidic device possessed a 55 mm contact length and a 38.5 µL internal volume. During counter‐current flow, we observed approximately 37 equilibrium stages (37 ± 13) based on a best‐fit of the solute fraction remaining in the aqueous phase using a Kremser Group Method analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Control of machining-induced residual stress via tool geometry and process parameter modification

Distortion generated in machined, monolithic, thin-walled aerospace components due to residual stresses leads to significant material and economic waste in the manufacturing industry. Inherent residual stress (IRS) present in stock materials combines with machining-induced residual stress (MIRS) to influence the final machined part distortion. It is hypothesized that MIRS can be controlled, based on the part geometry, through deliberate cutting tool geometry and process parameter modifications to negate the effect of IRS on distortion, consequently resulting in distortion-free parts. A finite element (FE) orthogonal cutting model is developed to study how tool geometry and process parameters influence machining-induced residual stress (MIRS). Orthogonal cutting experiments are performed on Al 7075-T651 samples to measure cutting forces and MIRS. A cutting force dynamometer is used to measure forces during cutting and a novel digital image correlation (DIC) based hole drilling technique is employed to measure the near-surface residual stress (RS) in the cut samples. These data are subsequently utilized to validate the FE prediction model. Various cases of cutting simulations involving different depths of cut, tool tip radii, and rake angles are performed to study their effects on RS. Similar to prior literature, increasing the depth of cut, tool tip radius, or rake angle is found to promote the formation of near-surface tensile stresses. The competing effects of material plowing and temperature are shown to determine the type of RS at the end of the cut. Moreover, a window of variation of RS (up to ± 400 MPa) is estimated within the given range of conditions, allowing for the control of MIRS through tool and process modification.

Mathews, Ritin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000301440828)↗

The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives

The global monsoon system, encompassing the Asian-Australian, African, and American monsoons, sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture. Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks, including floods and droughts. Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms. Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift: increased rainfall pre-1950s, followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s, driven by both internal variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and external forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols), while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification, though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist. Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes, where thermodynamic effects (warming-induced moisture rise) uniformly boost heavy rainfall, while dynamical shifts (circulation changes) create spatial heterogeneity. Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification (SRM) further complicate predictions: tropical eruptions suppress monsoons, whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows, highlighting unresolved feedbacks. The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons. Critical challenges remain. Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution. The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings, along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming, demands deeper mechanistic insights. Additionally, SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation. Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks, refined climate models, and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers, ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.

climate extreme events↗