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NASA NTRS1990

Space-based Doppler lidar sampling strategies: Algorithm development and simulated observation experiments

Lidar Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) Simulation Models (LSM) were developed to evaluate the potential impact of global wind observations on the basic understanding of the Earth's atmosphere and on the predictive skills of current forecast models (GCM and regional scale). Fully integrated top to bottom LAWS Simulation Models for global and regional scale simulations were developed. The algorithm development incorporated the effects of aerosols, water vapor, clouds, terrain, and atmospheric turbulence into the models. Other additions include a new satellite orbiter, signal processor, line of sight uncertainty model, new Multi-Paired Algorithm and wind error analysis code. An atmospheric wind field library containing control fields, meteorological fields, phenomena fields, and new European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) data was also added. The LSM was used to address some key LAWS issues and trades such as accuracy and interpretation of LAWS information, data density, signal strength, cloud obscuration, and temporal data resolution.

Emmitt, G. D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A process-based evaluation of biases in extratropical stratosphere–troposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems

Abstract. Two-way coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere is recognized as an important source of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability and can open windows of opportunity for improved forecasts. Model biases can, however, lead to a poor representation of such coupling processes; drifts in a model's circulation related to model biases, resolution, and parameterizations have the potential to feed back on the circulation and affect stratosphere–troposphere coupling. We introduce a set of diagnostics using readily available data that can be used to reveal these biases and then apply these diagnostics to 22 S2S forecast systems. In the Northern Hemisphere, nearly all S2S forecast systems underestimate the strength of the observed upward coupling from the troposphere to the stratosphere, downward coupling within the stratosphere, and the persistence of lower-stratospheric temperature anomalies. While downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is well represented in the multi-model ensemble mean, there is substantial intermodel spread likely related to how well each model represents tropospheric stationary waves. In the Southern Hemisphere, the stratospheric vortex is oversensitive to upward-propagating wave flux in the forecast systems. Forecast systems generally overestimate the strength of downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the troposphere, even as most underestimate the radiative persistence in the lower stratosphere. In both hemispheres, models with higher lids and a better representation of tropospheric quasi-stationary waves generally perform better at simulating these coupling processes.

Garfinkel, Chaim I. (ORCID:000000017258666X)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advanced Information Systems Technology for NASA Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT)

ESA and NASA have both started programs to design and develop Digital Twins of the Earth and/or Earth systems. Organized around interconnected, multi-domain, high-scale modeling capabilities, the three major components of an Earth System Digital Twin are a continuously updated Digital Replica of the Earth System of interest, dynamic Forecasting models, and Impact Assessment capabilities. Earth System Digital Twins integrate diverse Earth and human activity models, continuous observations, and information system capabilities to provide unified, comprehensive representations and predictions that can be utilized for monitoring the health of the Planet, as well as for developing actionable information to support decision making. More generally, Digital Twins will help researchers better understand the fundamental Earth systems that impact everything from wildfires to climate change. This Townhall will first provide a short description of ESA’s, NASA’s and CNES’s current efforts in Digital Twins: • Destination Earth (DestinE) is the first initiative of the European Union to create a Digital Twin of the Earth, particularly focused on weather and climate, and as a coordinated effort between the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ESA and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). • Additionally, ESA is developing several Digital Twin Earth Precursor Activities to study some of the key scientific and technical challenges associated with building a “Digital Twin Earth”. These include forests, hydrology, Antarctica, food systems, oceans, and climate hot spots Digital Twin prototypes. • NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO)’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program has started an initiative in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT), with 14 current projects in this area, developing various information systems technologies and prototypes that will help prepare the development of future NASA Digital Twins. • CNES is currently developing the concept of a Digital Twin Factory (DTF), which relies on a data lake, a high computing capability using clouds and/or HPC and has thematic algorithms and methodologies able to generate registered and coherent layers of information in order to enrich a datacube from which physical indicators can be computed spatially. NASA, ESA and CNES are also currently defining science use cases that will be presented during the townhall; those and a few short discussions of current projects will serve as a starting point to engage a dialogue about Digital Twins of the Earth with the IGARSS community.

earth science remote sensing; Information systems↗

NASA NTRS2006

Sensor Management for Applied Research Technologies (SMART)-On Demand Modeling (ODM) Project

NASA requires timely on-demand data and analysis capabilities to enable practical benefits of Earth science observations. However, a significant challenge exists in accessing and integrating data from multiple sensors or platforms to address Earth science problems because of the large data volumes, varying sensor scan characteristics, unique orbital coverage, and the steep learning curve associated with each sensor and data type. The development of sensor web capabilities to autonomously process these data streams (whether real-time or archived) provides an opportunity to overcome these obstacles and facilitate the integration and synthesis of Earth science data and weather model output. A three year project, entitled Sensor Management for Applied Research Technologies (SMART) - On Demand Modeling (ODM), will develop and demonstrate the readiness of Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) capabilities that integrate both Earth observations and forecast model output into new data acquisition and assimilation strategies. The advancement of SWE-enabled systems (i.e., use of SensorML, sensor planning services - SPS, sensor observation services - SOS, sensor alert services - SAS and common observation model protocols) will have practical and efficient uses in the Earth science community for enhanced data set generation, real-time data assimilation with operational applications, and for autonomous sensor tasking for unique data collection.

Goodman, M.↗

NASA NTRS2017

NASA Downscaling Project: Final Report

A team of researchers from NASA Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and Marshall Space Flight Center, along with university partners at UCLA, conducted an investigation to explore whether downscaling coarse resolution global climate model (GCM) predictions might provide valid insights into the regional impacts sought by decision makers. Since the computational cost of running global models at high spatial resolution for any useful climate scale period is prohibitive, the hope for downscaling is that a coarse resolution GCM provides sufficiently accurate synoptic scale information for a regional climate model (RCM) to accurately develop fine scale features that represent the regional impacts of a changing climate. As a proxy for a prognostic climate forecast model, and so that ground truth in the form of satellite and in-situ observations could be used for evaluation, the MERRA and MERRA - 2 reanalyses were used to drive the NU - WRF regional climate model and a GEOS - 5 replay. This was performed at various resolutions that were at factors of 2 to 10 higher than the reanalysis forcing. A number of experiments were conducted that varied resolution, model parameterizations, and intermediate scale nudging, for simulations over the continental US during the period from 2000 - 2010. The results of these experiments were compared to observational datasets to evaluate the output.

dynamical downsizing↗

NASA NTRS2017

NASA Downscaling Project

A team of researchers from NASA Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and Marshall Space Flight Center, along with university partners at UCLA, conducted an investigation to explore whether downscaling coarse resolution global climate model (GCM) predictions might provide valid insights into the regional impacts sought by decision makers. Since the computational cost of running global models at high spatial resolution for any useful climate scale period is prohibitive, the hope for downscaling is that a coarse resolution GCM provides sufficiently accurate synoptic scale information for a regional climate model (RCM) to accurately develop fine scale features that represent the regional impacts of a changing climate. As a proxy for a prognostic climate forecast model, and so that ground truth in the form of satellite and in-situ observations could be used for evaluation, the MERRA and MERRA-2 reanalyses were used to drive the NU-WRF regional climate model and a GEOS-5 replay. This was performed at various resolutions that were at factors of 2 to 10 higher than the reanalysis forcing. A number of experiments were conducted that varied resolution, model parameterizations, and intermediate scale nudging, for simulations over the continental US during the period from 2000-2010. The results of these experiments were compared to observational datasets to evaluate the output.

Ferraro, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1984

Forecasts of the 500 mb height using a dynamically oriented statistical model

The forecast skill of a simple dynamically inspired statistical model of the Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height field is evaluated in spectral and physical space for a variety of forecast lead times (1-32 days) and predictand averaging times (1-32 days). The model includes viscous damping, wave propagation, climatology and implicit stochastic forcing. The largest model skill was found for forecasts of the zonal flow and the largest waves. In general, the largest forecast skills were also associated with the largest forecast error, there being a slight geographic phase shift of the skill with respect to the error. Model skills for climate (time-averaged) forecasts are greater when using instantaneous rather than time averages to forecast time averages. Analysis of model errors suggests areas for improvement in representing forcing terms and model physics. However, the model error fields are largely 'white noise' which suggests that global forecast skills substantially larger than those obtained here are unlikely to be achieved by more sophisticated models.

Roads, J. O.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) Use Cases

NASA AIST Program is now designing and developing Digital Twins of the Earth and/or Earth systems. Organized around interconnected, multi-domain, high-scale modeling capabilities, the three major components of an Earth System Digital Twin are a continuously updated Digital Replica of the Earth System of interest, dynamic Forecasting models, and Impact Assessment capabilities. In order to define ESDT's benefits to Earth Science, as well as the AIST capabilities required to develop such systems, the AIST Program has been developed 6 science use cases corresponding to 6 of the main Earth Science domains.

J. Le Moigne↗

NASA NTRS2023

Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) Architecture Framework

NASA AIST Program is now designing and developing Digital Twins of the Earth and/or Earth systems. Organized around interconnected, multi-domain, high-scale modeling capabilities, the three major components of an Earth System Digital Twin are a continuously updated Digital Replica of the Earth System of interest, dynamic Forecasting models, and Impact Assessment capabilities. This document identifies the key features and capabilities needed in an ESDT and describes the major notional components of the system and some key relationships, while providing room for a variety of architectures to respond to them. It provides a generic system diagram of an ESDT, including the interfaces to external observing systems and models.

Jacqueline Le Moigne↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) Definition and Science Use Cases

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗

NASA NTRS2026

Timing the Flames: Geostationary Satellite Detection of Diurnally Shifting Stubble Burning in Northwestern India

Post-monsoon open-field stubble burning in northwestern (NW) India—a key agricultural region known as the “breadbasket”—is a longstanding practice used to clear fields. Satellite observations spanning over two decades have revealed significant upward trends in crop production, vegetative greenness, and the frequency of post-harvest fires, with this last contributing to hazardous air quality during the peak burning season (mid-October to mid-November). Since 2022, thermal anomaly data from Aqua-MODIS and SNPP-VIIRS sensors have shown a sharp decline in reported fire events—an observation that contrasts starkly with the concurrent rise in regional aerosol loading detected from space. This apparent discrepancy became particularly pronounced in 2024–2025, prompting a closer examination using high-temporal-resolution imagery from the Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI) on the geostationary satellite GEO-KOMPSAT-2A. These observations revealed a clear spike in fire-related signals occurring around and after 4:00 p.m. local time, i.e., outside the typical noon to 2:00 p.m. detection window of the MODIS and VIIRS. A fire detection algorithm exploiting the fire-sensitive shortwave-infrared 3.8 μm signal and its contrast to 11.2 μm infrared observations is designed to adopt AMI observations and applied to its multi-year observations (2019–2025). The resulting fire dataset unambiguously shows a gradual shift in stubble burning activity toward the late afternoon hours beginning in 2022 which is underreported by polar-orbiting satellites. The orbital drift of NASA’s MODIS sensor on the Aqua platform allows detection of some of the gradually shifting fires during afternoon hours, but the MODIS still misses a large number of fires occurring around and after 4 p.m. The AMI’s relatively coarse spatial resolution (~4 km), a consequence of its slant viewing geometry over NW India, imposes inherent limitations on quantifying the full extent of fire occurrences. The operational air quality forecasting models currently assimilate satellite fire detections predominantly captured during early afternoon overpasses of the MODIS and VIIRS. The temporal shift in fire activity complicates such forecast, leading to a substantial underestimation of emissions. Intense stubble burning and the resulting air pollution highlight the need for effective crop residue management practices for mitigating the frequency of open biomass burning and thereby reducing episodic degradation of air quality and its associated public health and economic impacts.

post-monsoon stubble burning; northwestern India;↗

NASA NTRS1984

Large-scale analysis and forecast experiments with wind data from the Seasat A scatterometer

A series of data assimilation experiments is performed to assess the impact of Seasat A satellite scatterometer (SASS) wind data on Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) model forecasts. The SASS data are dealiased as part of an objective analysis system utilizing a three-pass procedure. The impact of the SASS data is evaluated with and without temperature soundings from the NOAA 4 Vertical Temperature Profile Radiometer (VTPR) instrument in order to study possible redundancy between surface wind data and upper air temperature data. In the northern hemisphere the SASS data are generally found to have a negligible effect on the forecasts. In the southern hemisphere the forecast impact from SASS data is somewhat larger and primarily beneficial in the absence of VTPR data. However, the inclusion of VTPR data effectively eliminates the positive impact over Australia and South America. This indicates that SASS data can be beneficial for numerical weather prediction in regions with large data gaps, but in the presence of satellite soundings the usefulness of SASS data is significantly reduced.

Baker, W. E.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Mesoscale meteorology - Theories, observations and models; Proceedings of the Advanced Study Institute, Bonas, Gers, France, July 13-31, 1982

Among the topics discussed are mesoscale processes and variability, regional and cyclonic scale motions and their prediction modeling, fronts, mesoscale instabilities, buoyancy (gravity) waves and topographic forcing, buoyant convection, boundary layers, and observational technology. The specific issues investigated include methods for initializing mesoscale forecast models, an energy theory for the propagation of gravity currents, a theory for rain bands within extratropical cyclones, the morning glory as a nonlinear wave phenomenon, cumulus clouds, the prediction of severe convection, planetary boundary layer parameterization, and three-dimensional wind field analysis from Doppler radar data.

Lilly, D. K.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Using TRMM Field Campaign Data for Assessing GEOS Forecast and Assimilation Products

The wealth of in-situ measurements gathered during Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) field campaigns over a wide range of tropical conditions constitute an important data source for evaluating the quality of global model forecasts and assimilated datasets. In this study we use selected observations of cloud microphysics and atmospheric sounding from TEFLUN-1998, SCEMEX-1998, and TRMMLBA-1999 to examine the assimilation and forecast fields produced by the operational GEOS-3 (Goddard Earth Observing System - version 3) global data assimilation system (DAS) and a new finite-volume DAS under development at the Data Assimilation Office. Additionally, TRMM field campaign measurements are used to verify the impact of assimilating rainfall and moisture data derived from TRMM Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager instruments on the GEOS analysis. We will also explore issues concerning the 'error of representativeness' in using in-situ observations of quantities with large spatial and temporal variability such as precipitation for validating gridded global data products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

DOE OSTI2024

WTK-LED: The WIND Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset

To satisfy a wide group of stakeholders across various wind energy disciplines, including but not limited to stakeholders in the distributed and utility scale wind industry, the new emerging airborne wind energy field, grid integration, power systems modeling, environmental modeling, and researchers in academia, and to close some of the gaps that current public datasets have, we aimed at developing an updated version of the meteorological WIND Toolkit, named WIND Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED), which is a meteorological dataset providing time series every 5 min and 2 km, including model uncertainty of wind speed at every modeling grid point so that users are provided with a range of possible wind speeds every 2 km. The data were produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The vertical grid used in WTK-LED includes many vertical layers in the atmospheric boundary layer to provide information of atmospheric quantities across the rotor layer of utility scale and distributed wind turbines. The WTK-LED includes: 1) Numerical simulations covering the continental United States, Alaska, and Hawaii, with high-resolution data being available for 3 years (2018-2020). 2) Climate simulations from Argonne National Laboratories covering the North American continent, including Alaska, Canada, and most of Mexico and the Caribbean Islands. These simulations complement the new WTK-LED to offer a 4-km dataset covering 20 years, from 2001-2020. 3) Specific long-term,high-resolution offshore simulations have been conducted separately for the US coasts, Hawaii, and the Great Lakes, leading to the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set. This report focuses on a description of the land-based WTK-LED for CONUS, Hawaii, and Alaska, for the 3-year 2-km/5-min dataset and the 20-year 4-km/hourly dataset, as well as the uncertainty quantification method. We also provide limited validation results. Based on our results to date, we suggest use cases and applications for each dataset of the WTK-LED.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2022

Advancing Theory and Modeling Efforts in Heliophysics

Heliophysics theory and modeling build understanding from fundamental principles to motivate, interpret, and predict observations. Together with observational analysis, they constitute a comprehensive scientific program in heliophysics. As observations and data analysis become increasingly detailed, it is critical that theory and modeling develop more quantitative predictions and iterate with observations. Advanced theory and modeling can inspire and greatly improve the design of new instruments and increase their chance of success. In addition, in order to build physics based space weather forecast models, it is important to keep developing and testing new theories, and maintaining constant communications with theory and modeling. Maintaining a sustainable effort in theory and modeling is critically important to heliophysics. We recommend that all funding agencies join forces and consider expanding current and creating new theory and modeling programs–especially, 1. NASA should restore the HTMS program to its original support level to meet the critical needs of heliophysics science; 2. a Strategic Research Model program needs to be created to support model development for next-generation basic research codes; 3. new programs must be created for addressing mission-critical theory and modeling needs; and 4. enhanced programs are urgently required for training the next generation of theorists and modelers.

Fan Guo↗

NASA NTRS1989

Chemistry and transport in a three-dimensional stratospheric model - Chlorine species during a simulated stratospheric warming

The distributions in the stratosphere of a variety of chemical species were calculated for a 6-day period during the February 1979 stratospheric major warming, using winds derived from a spectral forecast model which included O(x), NO(x), HO(x), and ClO(x) chemistries as well as longitudinally varying reaction rate coefficients and photolysis rates for these molecules. The results obtained indicate a particular importance of chemistry and transport for the Cl-containing species ClO, ClONO2, HCl, and HOCl. Dynamical effects dominate the variability of HCl, while diurnal effects dominate that of ClONO2 and ClO. The effects of strong planetary wave activity may be seen in terms of large longitudinal variability of the total HCl and ClONO columns in the stratosphere; in the middle and high northern latitudes, it is sufficiently large to exceed the diurnal variability of the column.

Kaye, Jack A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Trace Gas Columns Derived from WRF/Chem Regional Model Output: Planning for Geostationary Observations of Atmospheric Composition

We quantify both the spatial and temporal variability of column integrated O3, NO2, CO, SO2, and HCHO over the Baltimore / Washington, DC area using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting model with on-line chemistry (WRF/Chem) for the entire month of July 2011, coinciding with the first deployment of the NASA Earth Venture program mission Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ). Using structure function analyses, we find that the model reproduces the spatial variability observed during the campaign reasonably well, especially for O3. The Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) instrument will be the first NASA mission to make atmospheric composition observations from geostationary orbit and partially fulfills the goals of the Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission. We relate the simulated variability to the precision requirements defined by the science traceability matrices of these space-borne missions. Results for O3 from 0- 2 km altitude indicate that the TEMPO instrument would be able to observe O3 air quality events over the Mid-Atlantic area, even on days when the violations of the air quality standard are not widespread. The results further indicated that horizontal gradients in CO from 0-2 km would be observable over moderate distances (≥ 20 km). The spatial and temporal results for tropospheric column NO2 indicate that TEMPO would be able to observe not only the large urban plumes at times of peak production, but also the weaker gradients between rush hours. This suggests that the proposed spatial and temporal resolutions for these satellites as well as their prospective precision requirements are sufficient to answer the science questions they are tasked to address.

TEMPO↗