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NASA NTRS2013

Regional to Global Assessments of Phytoplankton Dynamics From The SeaWiFS Mission

Photosynthetic production of organic matter by microscopic oceanic phytoplankton fuels ocean ecosystems and contributes roughly half of the Earth's net primary production. For 13 years, the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) mission provided the first consistent, synoptic observations of global ocean ecosystems. Changes in the surface chlorophyll concentration, the primary biological property retrieved from SeaWiFS, have traditionally been used as a metric for phytoplankton abundance and its distribution largely reflects patterns in vertical nutrient transport. On regional to global scales, chlorophyll concentrations covary with sea surface temperature (SST) because SST changes reflect light and nutrient conditions. However, the oceanmay be too complex to be well characterized using a single index such as the chlorophyll concentration. A semi-analytical bio-optical algorithm is used to help interpret regional to global SeaWiFS chlorophyll observations from using three independent, well-validated ocean color data products; the chlorophyll a concentration, absorption by CDM and particulate backscattering. First, we show that observed long-term, global-scale trends in standard chlorophyll retrievals are likely compromised by coincident changes in CDM. Second, we partition the chlorophyll signal into a component due to phytoplankton biomass changes and a component caused by physiological adjustments in intracellular chlorophyll concentrations to changes in mixed layer light levels. We show that biomass changes dominate chlorophyll signals for the high latitude seas and where persistent vertical upwelling is known to occur, while physiological processes dominate chlorophyll variability over much of the tropical and subtropical oceans. The SeaWiFS data set demonstrates complexity in the interpretation of changes in regional to global phytoplankton distributions and illustrates limitations for the assessment of phytoplankton dynamics using chlorophyll retrievals alone.

phytoplankton↗
NASA NTRS2015

The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI)

Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events (IPCC, 2013). These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security (Nelson et al., 2014a). Global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time-periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). These models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, environmental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions (Bondeau et al., 2007; Drewniak et al., 2013; Elliott et al., 2014b; Gueneau et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2007; M¨uller and Robertson, 2014; Van den Hoof et al., 2011;Waha et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2014). Due to data limitations, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regarding prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and future periods. Implementation differences in these and other modeling choices contribute to significant variation among global-scale crop model assessments in addition to differences in crop model implementations that also cause large differences in site-specific crop modeling (Asseng et al., 2013; Bassu et al., 2014).

climate↗
NASA NTRS2015

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

models↗
NASA NTRS2016

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Populations↗
NASA NTRS2016

Global Estimates of Fine Particulate Matter Using a Combined Geophysical-Statistical Method with Information from Satellites, Models, and Monitors

We estimated global fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) concentrations using information from satellite-, simulation- and monitor-based sources by applying a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to global geophysically-based satellite-derived PM(sub 2.5) estimates. Aerosol optical depth from multiple satellite products (MISR, MODIS Dark Target, MODIS and SeaWiFS Deep Blue, and MODIS MAIAC) was combined with simulation (GEOS-Chem) based upon their relative uncertainties as determined using ground-based sun photometer (AERONET) observations for 1998−2014. The GWR predictors included simulated aerosol composition and land use information. The resultant PM(sub 2.5) estimates were highly consistent (R(sup 2) equals 0.81) with out-of-sample cross-validated PM(sub 2.5) concentrations from monitors. The global population-weighted annual average PM(sub 2.5) concentrations were 3-fold higher than the 10 micrograms per cubic meter WHO guideline, driven by exposures in Asian and African regions. Estimates in regions with high contributions from mineral dust were associated with higher uncertainty, resulting from both sparse ground-based monitoring, and challenging conditions for retrieval and simulation. This approach demonstrates that the addition of even sparse ground-based measurements to more globally continuous PM(sub 2.5) data sources can yield valuable improvements to PM(sub 2.5) characterization on a global scale.

aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Development of a Long-Term, Continually Updated Global Solar Resource at 10 km Resolution: Preliminary Results From Test Processing and Continuing Plans

Background: Considering the likelihood of global climatic weather pattern changes and the global competition for energy resources, there is an increasing need to provide improved and continuously updated global Earth surface solar resource information. Toward this end, a project was funded under the NASA Applied Science program involving the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the State University of New York/Albany (SUNY) and the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) to provide NREL with a global long-term advanced global solar mapping production system for improved depiction of historical solar resources and variability and to provide a mechanism for continual updates of solar resource information. This new production system is made possible by the efforts of NOAA and NASA to completely reprocess the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data set that provides satellite visible and infrared radiances together with retrieved cloud and surface properties on a 3-hourly basis beginning from July 1983. The old version of the ISCCP data provided this information for all the world TMs available geosynchronous satellite systems and NOAA TMs AVHRR data sets at a 30 km effective resolution. This new version aims to provide a new and improved satellite calibration at an effective 10 km resolution. Thus, working with SUNY, NASA will develop and test an improved production system that will enable NREL to continually update the Earth TM solar resource. Objective and Methods: In this presentation, we provide a general overview of this project together with samples of the new solar irradiance mapped data products and comparisons to surface measurements at various locations across the world. An assessment of the solar resource values relative to calibration uncertainty and assumptions are presented. Errors resulting assumptions in snow cover and background aerosol amount are described. These uncertainties and the statistics of the agreement between the measurements and new satellite estimates are also reviewed and compared to other solar data sets. Findings and Conclusions: Preliminary results show that insolation values show an overall small bias (less than 1%) with a RMS of 25% relative to surface measurements. Exceptions at certain locations were found and will be discussed relative to the uncertainties identified above. Lastly, we will identify the next steps in the development and improvement of this production system including some accuracy goals in preparation for ultimate delivery to NREL.

Stackhouse, P.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Heuristic Approach to Global Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

Landslides can have significant and pervasive impacts to life and property around the world. Several attempts have been made to predict the geographic distribution of landslide activity at continental and global scales. These efforts shared common traits such as resolution, modeling approach, and explanatory variables. The lessons learned from prior research have been applied to build a new global susceptibility map from existing and previously unavailable data. Data on slope, faults, geology, forest loss, and road networks were combined using a heuristic fuzzy approach. The map was evaluated with a Global Landslide Catalog developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, as well as several local landslide inventories. Comparisons to similar susceptibility maps suggest that the subjective methods commonly used at this scale are, for the most part, reproducible. However, comparisons of landslide susceptibility across spatial scales must take into account the susceptibility of the local subset relative to the larger study area. The new global landslide susceptibility map is intended for use in disaster planning, situational awareness, and for incorporation into global decision support systems.

mapping↗
NASA NTRS2017

Historic Global Biomass Burning Emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) Based on Merging Satellite Observations with Proxies and Fire Models (1750-2015)

Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data has shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emissions estimates based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies, and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 petagrams of carbon per year. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990's after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 percent of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emissions estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations.

Biomass burning; Satellite observations; computer ↗
NASA NTRS2018

Assessing Global Surface Water Inundation Dynamics Using Combined Satellite Information from SMAP, AMSR2 and Landsat

A method to assess global land surface water (fw) inundation dynamics was developed by exploiting the enhanced fw sensitivity of L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. The L-band fw (fw(sub LBand)) retrievals were derived using SMAP H-polarization brightness temperature (Tb) observations and predefined L-band reference microwave emissivities for water and land endmembers. Potential soil moisture and vegetation contributions to the microwave signal were represented from overlapping higher frequency (Tb) observations from AMSR2. The resulting (fw(sub LBand)) global record has high temporal sampling (1-3 days) and 36-km spatial resolution. The (fw(sub LBand)) annual averages corresponded favourably (R=0.84, p<0.001) with a 250-m resolution static global water map (MOD44W) aggregated at the same spatial scale, while capturing significant inundation variations worldwide. The monthly (fw(sub LBand)) averages also showed seasonal inundation changes consistent with river discharge records within six major US river basins. An uncertainty analysis indicated generally reliable (fw(sub LBand)) performance for major land cover areas and under low to moderate vegetation cover, but with lower accuracy for detecting water bodies covered by dense vegetation. Finer resolution (30-m) (fw(sub LBand)) results were obtained for three sub-regions in North America using an empirical downscaling approach and ancillary global Water Occurrence Dataset (WOD) derived from the historical Landsat record. The resulting 30-m (fw(sub LBand)) retrievals showed favourable spatial accuracy for water (70.71%) and land (98.99%) classifications and seasonal wet and dry periods when compared to independent water maps derived from Landsat-8 imagery. The new (fw(sub LBand)) algorithms and continuing SMAP and AMSR2 operations provide for near real-time, multi-scale monitoring of global surface water inundation dynamics and potential flood risk.

WOD↗
NASA NTRS2018

Overview of Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2: Retrieval, Cross-Mission Comparison, and Global Monitoring for GPP

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), launched in July 2014, is capable of measuring Solar-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), a functional proxy for terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP). Although its primary mission is to measure the column-averaged mixing ratio of CO2 (Xco(sub 2)) to constrain global carbon source/sink distribution, one of the OCO-2 spectrometers allows for a robust SIF retrieval solely based on solar Fraunhofer lines. Here we present a technical overview of the OCO-2 SIF product, aiming to provide the scientific community guidance on best practices for data analysis, interpretation, and application. This overview consists of the retrieval algorithms, OCO-2 specific bias correction, retrieval uncertainty evaluation, cross-mission comparison with other existing SIF products, and a global-scale examination of the SIF-GPP relationship. With the initial three years of data (September 2014 onward), we compared OCO-2 SIF with retrievals from Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2), and examined its relationship with FLUXCOM and MODIS GPP datasets. Our results show that OCO-2 SIF, along with GOSAT products, closely resemble the mean spatial and temporal patterns of FLUXCOM GPP from regions to the globe. Compared with GOME-2, however, OCO-2 depicts a more realistic spatial contrast between the tropics and extra-tropics. The linear relationship between OCO-2 SIF and existing modeled GPP products diverges somewhat across biomes at the global scale, consistent with previous GOSAT or GOME-2 based findings when modeled GPP products were used, but in contrast to a consistent cross-biome SIF-GPP relationship obtained at flux tower sites with OCO-2 products. This contrast suggests a critical need to reconcile differences in diverse SIF and GPP products and the relationships among them. Overall, the OCO-2 SIF products are robust and valuable for monitoring the global terrestrial carbon cycle and for constraining the carbon source/sink strengths of the Earth system. Finally, insights are offered for future satellite missions optimized for SIF retrievals.

GPP↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synergistic and Collaborative Development Strategies for FV3 Powered Next Generation Unified Global Modeling System

The GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Finite-­Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) is a scalable and flexible dynamical core capable of both hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulations. FV3 has been chosen as the dynamical core for the Next Generation Global Prediction System project (NGGPS), designed to upgrade the current NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NOAA) operational Global Forecast System (GFS) to run as a unified, fully-coupled system in NOAA's Environmental Modeling System infrastructure. FV3 dynamic core has a long history of serving as the main engine for global atmospheric models at various Government and Academic Research Laboratories including NOAA: GFDL Climate Modeling Suite (AM4 (Atmosphere Modeling 4), CM4 (Climate Model 4) ESM4 (Earth System Model 4), Hiram (HIgh Resolution Atmospheric Model)); NASA: GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS); and NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Earth System Model (CESM). The three primary stakeholders in FV3 (GFDL, GMAO, EMC (Environmental Modeling Center - NOAA)) have embarked on synergistic and collaborative strategies with focus on the advancement of non-hydrostratic dynamic core, physics, chemistry, and data assimilation efforts, leveraging collective strengths of each of the partnering agencies. This talk presents the ongoing plans for model advancements at GFDL, GMAO and EMC, with special emphasis on contributions towards developing community based unified global modeling system for operational and research applications at respective organizations. Future plans include extending the collaborations to the development of earth system components including GMAO's aerosol chemistry models (GOCART/MAM (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport / Modal Aerosol Model)), Land Information System (LIS), and advanced data assimilation techniques; and GFDL's Modular Ocean Model (MOM) and Sea Ice Simulator (SIS) for transition to operations at NCEP.

Putman, William↗
NASA NTRS2018

Lessons Learned in Building Long-Term Multi-Satellite Global Precipitation Records

Efforts to construct long-term global precipitation data sets from the decades-long record of satellite (and other) data historically have fallen into one of two categories. Climate Data Records (CDR), such as the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), prioritize homogeneity over fine-scale accuracy. On the other hand, High Resolution Precipitation Products (HRPP), such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), emphasize the use of data from all available satellites. For both types of products, experience has shown that it is critical to choose the appropriate reference standard to intercalibrate an ever-evolving constellation of satellite sensors. Towards this end, we have used passive microwave (PMW) in developing GPCP, and combined PMW-radar in TMPA.The launch of the TRMM follow-on Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2014 gave birth to several nearly-global HRPP's, including the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG). Our strategy in refining IMERG has been to first focus on the tropics and mid-latitudes, where we have relatively high confidence, and only more recently begin to expand into the lower-confidence high latitudes. Similarly, although GPCP has provided nearly-global estimates since its inception in the early 1990's, the advent of sensors such as CloudSat has facilitated new efforts to modernize its estimates at high latitudes.For each of these data sets, it is expected that the final merged estimate should tend to track along with its respective calibration standard. Time series depicting GPCP, TMPA, and IMERG will be presented, in order to demonstrate the extent to which this is so. Additionally, comparisons amongst the products will show areas of agreement and highlight areas where further improvements are needed.

Nelkin, Eric J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Predicting Global Ground Geoelectric Field With Coupled Geospace and Three-Dimensional Geomagnetic Induction Models

We forecast the global effects of space weather on the geoelectric and geomagnetic fields using a novel combination of methods. We use a realistic three-dimensional (3-D) model of Earth's electrical conductivity and a realistic representation of magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems. Our scheme involves the following steps: (1) We run a global magnetohydrodynamic model of the magnetosphere coupled to an electrostatic model of the ionosphere. (2) We calculate a global time series of the ground magnetic field resulting from the ionospheric, field-aligned, and magnetospheric currents of the global magnetohydrodynamic model. (3) We approximate this external field by an equivalent source current flowing in a thin shell above Earth. (4) We calculate a global time series of geoelectric and geomagnetic fields from the equivalent current and a 3-D conductivity model of Earth that also takes into account the coast effect due to large horizontal conductivity gradient. We verify our implementation by comparing the results against known analytic and numeric solutions, and then apply our scheme to the geomagnetic storm of 14 and 15 December 2006. In particular, we show that accounting for 3-D structure of Earth's conductivity results in significantly enhanced geoelectric field at large lateral gradients of conductivity, especially in coastal regions, both at middle and high latitudes. In the studied geomagnetic storm the largest values of 3-D geoelectric field are detected at high latitudes reaching 2.5 volts per kilometer and the 3-D effect extends inland by a few hundred kilometers.

Honkonen, I.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Global Assimilation of Loon Stratospheric Balloon Observations

Accurate analyses of stratospheric winds are important for determining realistic constituent transport and providing improved diagnostic studies and forecasts of the stratosphere. This study examines impacts on global meteorological analyses resulting from using winds derived from Loon superpressure balloons in the lower stratosphere (hereafter Loon winds) as additional input observations to the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system. To fully investigate the impacts of assimilating the Loon winds, two steps are taken: (1) comparison of the GEOS analysis winds with Loon winds (Control experiment) and (2) examination of the impacts of assimilating the Loon winds into the GEOS data assimilation system (Loon experiment). The time period selected is June–August 2014 when over 150 Loon balloons were launched, mainly in the Southern Hemisphere. In the middle latitudes, the Loon winds and Control winds agree well (Loon balloon zonal wind observation minus forecast, O − F, root‐mean‐square (RMS) values of ~2.75 m/s) and assimilating the Loon winds has a small impact (O − F RMS values unchanged). In the tropics, the Loon observations and Control analysis winds differ more than in middle latitudes (zonal wind O − F RMS ~3.75 m/s) and assimilating the Loon winds improves the zonal wind O − F RMS by ~1 m/s. In selected cases where the Loon observations and Control analysis differ greatly (O − F RMS values greater than 10 m/s), assimilating Loon winds significantly decreases the zonal wind O − F RMS by 5 m/s. These decreases in O − F RMS values show that the 6‐hr forecasts are improved at the Loon balloon observation locations. While satellites routinely measure Earth's global temperatures from space, in situ wind measurements are relatively scarce, consisting mainly of a network of ground‐based weather balloons. Since only a limited number of the weather balloons even reach stratospheric altitudes, there is a need for additional stratospheric observations. One option for addition wind information is the use of experimental superpressure balloons (SPBs). SPBs can remain in the stratosphere for many months traveling with the winds and hence, by reporting their changing positions, providing in situ wind observations. These SPBs experiments are generally limited in terms of time period and number of balloons. However, over the past few years Loon has been launching hundreds of SPBs (hereafter called Loon balloons) providing a more consistent set of observations of wind in the stratosphere. Here we assimilate some of the Loon balloon winds into the NASA GEOS global data assimilation system. The data assimilation system combines all observations with an atmospheric model to produce global analysis of winds and temperatures. Results show that including the Loon balloon wind information noticeably affects the global analysis as well as forecasts with the largest impact in the tropics. These results provide direction to future model and analysis improvements.

L. Coy↗
NASA NTRS2019

Potential Improvements in Global Carbon Flux Estimates from a Network of Laser Heterodyne Radiometer Measurements of Column Carbon Dioxide

We present observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to evaluate the impact of a proposed network of ground-based miniaturized laser heterodyne radiometer (mini-LHR) instruments that measure atmospheric column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) with a 1 ppm precision. A particular strength of this passive measurement approach is its insensitivity to clouds and aerosols due to its direct sun pointing and narrow field of view (0.2°). Developed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), these portable, low-cost mini-LHR instruments were designed to operate in tandem with the sun photometers used by the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). This partnership allows us to leverage the existing framework of AERONET's global ground network of more than 500 sites as well as providing simultaneous measurements of aerosols that are known to be a major source of error in retrievals of XCO2 from passive nadir-viewing satellite observations. We show, using the global 3-D GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model, that a deployment of 50 mini-LHRs at strategic (but not optimized) AERONET sites significantly improves our knowledge of global and regional land-based CO2 fluxes. This improvement varies seasonally and ranges 58%–81% over southern lands, 47%–76% over tropical lands, 71%–92% over northern lands, and 64%–91% globally. We also show significant added value from combining mini-LHR instruments with the existing ground-based NOAA flask network. Collectively, these data result in improved a posteriori CO2 flux estimates on spatial scales of ∼10 km2, especially over North America and Europe, where the ground-based networks are densest. Our studies suggest that the mini-LHR network could also play a substantive role in reducing carbon flux uncertainty in Arctic and tropical systems by filling in geographical gaps in measurements left by ground-based networks and space-based observations. A realized network would also provide necessary data for the quinquennial global stock takes that form part of the Paris Agreement.

Palmer, Paul I.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Quantifying the Contribution of Microbursts to Global Electron Loss in the Radiation Belts

We use the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer to explore the relationship between microbursts and global flux decay of electrons from the outer Van Allen belt during the recovery phase of geomagnetic storms. We investigate the correlation between microbursts and global electron loss in each of the quasi‐trapped (drift loss cone), stably trapped, and untrapped electron (bounce loss cone) populations. For the quasi‐trapped electrons, we separately classify the storms as driven by coronal mass ejections or corotating interaction regions and explore their connection to microburst loss. We find that the decay lifetime of electron fluxes, that is, e‐folding times of macroscopic fluxes in the recovery phase is correlated with strong microburst activity. That is, when the microburst activity is high, global flux decay times are short, and vice versa, suggesting a cross‐scale coupling between microloss and macroloss phenomena. Furthermore, we find that the microburst to global loss coupling is predominant in the quasi‐trapped population of radiation belt electrons while having negligible influence on the untrapped and stably trapped populations. We find that microburst activity during storms driven by coronal mass ejections is coupled more strongly with global flux decay as compared with corotating interaction regions. In addition, we find that distance from the plasmapause is likely a better indicator of microburst location than L‐shell, with most microbursts occurring ~0.5–2.0 L from the model plasmapause location.

Greeley, A. D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Decadal Evolution of the Surface Energy Budget During the Fast Warming and Global Warming Hiatus Periods in the ERA-Interim

The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-Interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.

Hu, Xiaoming↗
NASA NTRS2019

Parameterization-Induced Uncertainties and Impacts of Crop Management Harmonization in a Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) combine agronomic or plant growth models with gridded spatial input data to estimate spatially explicit crop yields and agricultural externalities at the global scale. Differences in GGCM outputs arise from the use of different biophysical models, setups, and input data. GGCM ensembles are frequently employed to bracket uncertainties in impact studies without investigating the causes of divergence in outputs. This study explores differences in maize yield estimates from five GGCMs based on the public domain field-scale model Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) that participate in the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison initiative. Albeit using the same crop model, the GGCMs differ in model version, input data, management assumptions, parameterization, and selection of subroutines affecting crop yield estimates via cultivar distributions, soil attributes, and hydrology among others. The analyses reveal inter-annual yield variability and absolute yield levels in the EPIC-based GGCMs to be highly sensitive to soil parameterization and crop management. All GGCMs show an intermediate performance in reproducing reported yields with a higher skill if a static soil profile is assumed or sufficient plant nutrients are supplied. An in-depth comparison of setup domains for two EPIC-based GGCMs shows that GGCM performance and plant stress responses depend substantially on soil parameters and soil process parameterization, i.e. hydrology and nutrient turnover, indicating that these often neglected domains deserve more scrutiny. For agricultural impact assessments, employing a GGCM ensemble with its widely varying assumptions in setups appears the best solution for coping with uncertainties from lack of comprehensive global data on crop management, cultivar distributions and coefficients for agro-environmental processes. However, the underlying assumptions require systematic specifications to cover representative agricultural systems and environmental conditions. Furthermore, the interlinkage of parameter sensitivity from various domains such as soil parameters, nutrient turnover coefficients, and cultivar specifications highlights that global sensitivity analyses and calibration need to be performed in an integrated manner to avoid bias resulting from disregarded core model domains. Finally, relating evaluations of the EPIC-based GGCMs to a wider ensemble based on individual core models shows that structural differences outweigh in general differences in configurations of GGCMs based on the same model, and that the ensemble mean gains higher skill from the inclusion of structurally different GGCMs. Although the members of the wider ensemble herein do not consider crop-soil-management interactions, their sensitivity to nutrient supply indicates that findings for the EPIC-based sub-ensemble will likely become relevant for other GGCMs with the progressing inclusion of such processes.

Folberth, Christian↗