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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2021

GCAP 2.0: A Global 3-D Chemical-Transport Model Framework for Past, Present, and Future Climate Scenarios

This paper describes version 2.0 of the Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model framework, a one-way offline coupling between version E2.1 of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemical-transport model (CTM). Meteorology for driving GEOS-Chem has been archived from the E2.1 contributions to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the pre-industrial era and the recent past. In addition, meteorology is available for the near future and end of the century for seven future scenarios ranging from extreme mitigation to extreme warming. Emissions and boundary conditions have been prepared for input to GEOS-Chem that are consistent with the CMIP6 experimental design. The model meteorology, emissions, transport, and chemistry are evaluated in the recent past and found to be largely consistent with GEOS-Chem driven by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) product and with observational constraints.

Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tradeoffs between uniform land protection and biodiversity-specific land protection with <2 °C global warming

Nearly 200 countries have pledged to conserve 30% of terrestrial ecosystems to stop the global biodiversity crisis. However, biodiversity is not uniformly distributed across countries. Adequately addressing this crisis requires a scientific basis for selecting protected land that considers both ecological benefits and impacts to humans. We use the global change analysis model to evaluate land use tradeoffs of four land protection cases under two climate cases. We find that biodiversity-specific land protection up to 39% globally can reduce land use constraints and food prices compared to protecting 30% of land uniformly in each country (’30 × 30’ initiative). Valuing terrestrial carbon for climate change mitigation reduces land conversion pressure and can complement protection strategies. Global impacts to agriculture of additional land protection are small, but regional impacts vary and may be considerable. Overall, biodiversity-specific land protection has greater potential than a uniform target to meet both ecological and human needs.

biodiversity↗
NASA NTRS1991

Ocean topography mapping, improvement of the marine geoid, and global permanent ocean circulation studies from TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data

The TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter measurements will be the first global observations of the sea surface with accuracy sufficient to make quantitative determinations of the ocean's general circulation and its variations. These measurements are an important step to understanding global change in the ocean and its impact on the climate. Our investigation will focus on the examination of features in the sea surface elevation at the largest spatial and temporal scales. TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter measurements will be used in conjunction with observations from past satellite-altimeter missions, such as NASA's GEOS-3 and Seasat, the U.S. Navy's Geosat and SALT, and the European Remote Sensing satellite in order to address the following issues: (1) Improve models of the marine geoid, especially at wavelengths needed to understand the basin-scale ocean dynamic topograpy. (2) Measure directly from the altimeter data the expression of the mean global ocean circulation in the sea surface at the largest scales through a simultaneous solution for gravity, orbital, and oceanographic parameters. (3) Examine the sea surface measurements for changes in global ocean mass or volume, interannual variations in the basin-scale ocean circulation, and annual changes in the heating and cooling of the upper ocean.

Marsh, James G.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Volcanism, global catastrophe and mass mortality

The effects of very large volcanic eruptions are well documented in many studies, mostly based on observations made on three historic eruptions, Laki 1783; Tambora 1815 and Krakatau 1883. Such eruptions have effects that are catastrophic locally and measurable globally, but it is not clear that even the largest volcanic eruptions have had global catastrophic effects, nor caused mass extinctions. Two different types of volcanic eruption were considered as likely to have the most serious widespread effects: large silicic explosive eruptions producing hundreds or thousands of cubic kilometers of pyroclastic materials, and effusive basaltic eruptions producing of approximately 100 cubic kilometers of lava. In both cases, the global effects are climatic, and attributable to production of stratospheric aerosols. Other possibilities need to be explored. Recent research on global change has emphasized the extreme sensitivity of the links between oceanic circulation, atmospheric circulation and climate. In particular, it was argued that the pattern of ocean current circulation (which strongly influences climate) is unstable; it may rapidly flip from one pattern to a different one, with global climatic consequences. If volcanism has been a factor in global environmental change and a cause of mass extinctions, it seems most likely that it has done so by providing a trigger to other processes, for example by driving oceanic circulation from one mode to another.

Francis, P. W.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Host tree species mediate corticolous lichen responses to elevated CO 2 and O 3 after 10 years exposure in the Aspen-FACE system

Lichens contribute significantly to the biodiversity and functioning of many ecosystems. Although lichens are useful air pollution bioindicators and may respond in significant ways to global change, they are studied infrequently under field conditions in chamberless exposure systems. We surveyed corticolous lichens on paper birch ( Betula papyrifera ) and trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides ) after 10 years exposure (1998–2007) to elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) and O 3 (eO 3 ) in the Aspen-FACE experiment in Rhinelander, WI, USA. This experiment utilized chamberless exposure rings, 30 m in diameter, with both host trees planted together in one quadrant. Four treatments were allocated among 12 rings: ambient, eCO 2 , eO 3 , and the combination of eCO 2 + eO 3 , each replicated once in each of three blocks. Over the course of the experiment, ambient CO 2 increased from 343 to 386 ppm while eCO 2 averaged ~530 ppm CO 2 . Ambient ozone concentrations averaged ~37 ppb and ~49 ppb for eO 3 although exposures decreased with time. Tree growth and leaf area index were negatively affected by eO 3 and stimulated by eCO 2 , resulting in higher photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) in eO 3 and lower in eCO 2 . We assessed lichen richness and cover on five host trees per ring on the north-facing side of the trunks, which were higher on birch than on aspen. Additionally, neither of the lichen measures on birch responded to the exposure treatments, while on aspen lichen cover was highest in eO 3 and lowest in eCO 2 . On aspen, lichen cover was positively related to PAR and dominated by Caloplaca . No relationship was found for birch, although Lecanora exhibited a negative relationship with PAR. These lichens were insensitive to direct effects of eCO 2 and eO 3 at the levels applied. Instead, they responded to indirect effects, such as host tree species, and changes in understory PAR, resulting from direct effects of eO 3 and eCO 2 on the host trees.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from quantitative models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as those about technology and infrastructure deployment, and global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require model designers to balance coverage and resolution (i.e., breadth versus depth). Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses with less resolution than models that focus on a single sector's energy use. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers projecting prices using internal calculations for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This globally comprehensive model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy of the United States: Pathways to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050, which the White House released in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide climate change mitigation discussions and strategy development for decades. Unlike GCAM, sectoral models focus on a portion of the energy sector and with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects electricity system capacity expansion and operation with high-fidelity representation of emerging technologies for deep decarbonization, such as variable renewable energy and energy storage, and integration of these technologies into the electric grid. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices, with a focus on adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of electrification and energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in the United States. The integrated multisector and sector-specific modeling approaches represented by GCAM and these sectoral models are complementary. The integrated multisector approach calculates energy pricing and resource allocation within the model, which is important for consistency when future conditions substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios. The sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and trade-offs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and it addresses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decadal changes in fire frequencies shift tree communities and functional traits

Global change has resulted in chronic shifts in fire regimes. Variability in the sensitivity of tree communities to multi-decadal changes in fire regimes is critical to anticipating shifts in ecosystem structure and function, yet remains poorly understood. Here, we address the overall effects of fire on tree communities and the factors controlling their sensitivity in 29 sites that experienced multi-decadal alterations in fire frequencies in savanna and forest ecosystems across tropical and temperate regions. Fire had a strong overall effect on tree communities, with an average fire frequency (one fire every three years) reducing stem density by 48% and basal area by 53% after 50 years, relative to unburned plots. Here, the largest changes occurred in savanna ecosystems and in sites with strong wet seasons or strong dry seasons, pointing to fire characteristics and species composition as important. Analyses of functional traits highlighted the impact of fire-driven changes in soil nutrients because frequent burning favoured trees with low biomass nitrogen and phosphorus content, and with more efficient nitrogen acquisition through ectomycorrhizal symbioses. Taken together, the response of trees to altered fire frequencies depends both on climatic and vegetation determinants of fire behaviour and tree growth, and the coupling between fire-driven nutrient losses and plant traits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reviews and syntheses: Variable inundation across Earth's terrestrial ecosystems

Abstract. The structure, function, and dynamics of Earth's terrestrial ecosystems are profoundly influenced by how often (frequency) and how long (duration) they are inundated with water. A diverse array of natural and human-engineered systems experience temporally variable inundation whereby they fluctuate between inundated and non-inundated states. Variable inundation spans extreme events to predictable sub-daily cycles. Variably inundated ecosystems (VIEs) include hillslopes, non-perennial streams, wetlands, floodplains, temporary ponds, tidal systems, storm-impacted coastal zones, and human-engineered systems. VIEs are diverse in terms of inundation regimes, water chemistry and flow velocity, soil and sediment properties, vegetation, and many other properties. The spatial and temporal scales of variable inundation are vast, ranging from sub-meter to whole landscapes and from sub-hourly to multi-decadal. The broad range of system types and scales makes it challenging to predict the hydrology, biogeochemistry, ecology, and physical evolution of VIEs. Despite all experiencing the loss and gain of an overlying water column, VIEs are rarely considered together in conceptual, theoretical, modeling, or measurement frameworks and approaches. Studying VIEs together has the potential to generate mechanistic understanding that is transferable across a much broader range of environmental conditions, relative to knowledge generated by studying any one VIE type. We postulate that enhanced transferability will be important for predicting changes in VIE function in response to global change. Here we aim to catalyze cross-VIE science that studies drivers and impacts of variable inundation across Earth's VIEs. To this end, we complement expert mini-reviews of eight major VIE systems with overviews of VIE-relevant methods and challenges associated with scale. We conclude with perspectives on how cross-VIE science can derive transferable understanding via unifying conceptual models in which the impacts of variable inundation are studied across multi-dimensional environmental space.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

NASA's Earth Observations of the Global Environment: Our Changing Planet and the View from Space

This presentation focuses on the latest spectacular images from NASA's remote sensing missions like TRMM, SeaWiFS, Landsat 7, Terra, and Aqua which will be visualized and explained in the context of global change and man's impact on our world's environment. Visualizations of global data currently available from Earth orbiting satellites include the Earth at night with its city lights, high resolutions of tropical cyclone Eline and the resulting flooding of Mozambique as well as flybys of Cape Town, South Africa with its dramatic mountains and landscape, imagery of fires that occurred globally, with a special emphasis on fires in the western US during summer 2001. Visualizations of the global atmosphere and oceans are shown and demonstrations of the 3-dimensional structure of hurricane and cloud structures derived from recently launched Earth-orbiting satellites are are presented with other topics with a dynamic theater-style , along with animations of satellite launch deployments and orbital mapping to highlight aspects of Earth observations from space.

King, Michael D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Land Scarcity Under Deep Uncertainty

Abstract Land scarcity is increasing over time, driven by complex multisector dynamics. The impacts of land scarcity on the economy and environment are multi‐faceted and regional, so any action to convert land will contain inherent tradeoffs. These impacts are complicated by the deeply uncertain evolution of the various sectors influencing land scarcity. A need therefore exists to provide multi‐metric and multi‐sector assessments that are robust to myriad uncertainties. Land conservation effectively limits the supply of productive land, while biofuel consumption increases the demand and competition for that land, and how these dynamics individually and jointly propagate to economic and environmental impacts is an important open question. To address this, we adopt the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) that has representations of various important systems including the climate, macroeconomic, energy, agriculture and land, and water resources systems. Various scenarios of increased land demand (from biofuels) and decreased land supply (from conservation) under various socioeconomic scenarios drawn from the SSPs were simulated using GCAM. We find that while biofuel consumption and land conservation reduce carbon emissions, this comes at the cost of higher food prices, reduced crop production, and increased water withdrawals. Additionally, some regions experience these tradeoffs more severely than others and are more heavily impacted from the same biofuel mandate or by an additional percent of protected land. These and other findings highlight the importance of multisector modeling frameworks that capture many cross‐sector linkages, and acknowledge the important uncertainties confronting the human‐Earth system when making any analysis of land scarcity impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Harvest Intensity Effects on Carbon Stocks and Biodiversity Are Dependent on Regional Climate in Douglas-Fir Forests of British Columbia

Temperate forests provide crucial ecosystems services as living sinks for atmospheric carbon (C) and repositories of biodiversity. Applying harvesting at intensities that minimize losses offers one means for mitigating global change. However, little is known of overstory retention levels that best conserve ecosystem services in different regional climates, and likewise as climate changes. To quantify the effect of harvest intensity on C stocks and biodiversity, we compared five harvesting intensities (clearcutting, seedtree retention, 30% patch retention, 60% patch retention, and uncut controls) across a climatic aridity gradient that ranged from humid to semi-arid in the Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests of British Columbia. We found that increased harvesting intensity reduced total ecosystem, above ground, and live tree C stocks 1 year post-harvest, and the magnitude of these losses were negatively correlated with climatic aridity. In humid forests, total ecosystem C ranged from 50% loss following clearcut harvest, to 30% loss following large patch retention harvest. In arid forests this range was 60 to 8% loss, respectively. Where lower retention harvests are sought, the small patch retention treatment protected both C stocks and biodiversity in the arid forests, whereas the seedtree method performed as well or better in the humid forests. Below ground C stocks declined by an average of 29% after harvesting, with almost all of the loss from the forest floor and none from the mineral soil. Of the secondary pools, standing and coarse deadwood declined in all harvesting treatments regardless of cutting intensity or aridity, while C stocks in fine fuels and stumps increased. The understory plant C pool declined across all harvesting intensities in the humid forests, but increased in arid forests. Shannon’s diversity and richness of tree and bryoid species declined with harvesting intensity, where tree species losses were greatest in the humid forests and bryoid losses greatest in arid forests. Shrub and herb species were unaffected. This study showed that the highest retention level was best at reducing losses in C stocks and biodiversity, and clearcutting the poorest, and while partial retention of canopy trees can reduce losses in these ecosystem services, outcomes will vary with climatic aridity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 43: Initial Evaluation of the Climate - MERRA-2

The years since the introduction of MERRA have seen numerous advances in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System as well as a substantial decrease in the number of observations that can be assimilated into the MERRA system. To allow continued data processing into the future, and to take advantage of several important innovations that could improve system performance, a decision was made to produce MERRA-2, an updated retrospective analysis of the full modern satellite era. One of the many advances in MERRA-2 is a constraint on the global dry mass balance; this allows the global changes in water by the analysis increment to be near zero, thereby minimizing abrupt global interannual variations due to changes in the observing system. In addition, MERRA-2 includes the assimilation of interactive aerosols into the system, a feature of the Earth system absent from previous reanalyses. Also, in an effort to improve land surface hydrology, observations-corrected precipitation forcing is used instead of model-generated precipitation. Overall, MERRA-2 takes advantage of numerous updates to the global modeling and data assimilation system. In this document, we summarize an initial evaluation of the climate in MERRA-2, from the surface to the stratosphere and from the tropics to the poles. Strengths and weaknesses of the MERRA-2 climate are accordingly emphasized.

MERRA-2↗
NASA NTRS1986

Predicting the earth's future

The development of earth system models that will simulate the past and present and provide predictions of future conditions is essential now that human activities have the potential to induce changes in the planetary environment. Critical aspects of global change include its pervasiveness and ubiquity, its distribution in several distinct time-scale bands, and the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and the terrestrial and marine biospheres. A model of the earth system on the scale of decades to centuries, developed by the Earth System Science Committee (NASA) with the strategy of dividing by time scale rather than discipline, is presented and the requirements for observations to support the implementation of the model are reviewed.

Dutton, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Dynamics of Liquids in Edges and Corners (DYLCO): IML-2 Experiment for the BDPU

Knowledge of the behavior of fluids possessing free surfaces is important to many fluid systems, particularly in space, where the normally subtle effects of surface wettability play a more dramatic and often surprising role. DYLCO for the IML-2 mission was proposed as a simple experiment to probe the particular behavior of capillary surfaces in containers of irregular cross section. Temperature control was utilized to vary the fluid-solid contact angle, a questionable thermodynamic parameter of the system, small changes in which can dramatically influence the configuration, stability, and flow of a capillary surface. Container shapes, test fluid, and temperature ranges were selected for observing both local changes in interface curvature as well as a global change in fluid orientation due to a critical wetting phenomenon. The experiment hardware performed beyond what was expected and fluid interfaces could be readily digitized post flight to show the dependence of the interface curvature on temperature. For each of the containers tested surfaces were observed which did not satisfy the classic equations for the prediction of interface shape with constant contact angle boundary condition. This is explained by the presence of contact angle hysteresis arising from expansion and contraction of the liquid during the heating and cooling steps of the test procedure. More importantly, surfaces exceeding the critical surface curvature required for critical wetting were measured, yet no wetting was observed. These findings are indeed curious and pose key questions concerning the role of hysteresis for this critical wetting phenomena. The stability of such surfaces was determined numerically and it is shown that stability is enhance (reduced) when a surface is in its 'advancing' ('receding') state, The analysis shows complete instability as the critical wetting condition is reached. The case of ideal dynamic wetting is addressed analytically in detail with results of significant flow characteristics presented in closed form. The solutions indicate a square root of T dependence of the capillary 'rise' rate which is corroborated by drop tower tests. The analysis clearly shows that infinite time is necessary for surfaces to reorient at the critical wetting transition.

Langbein, D.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Case of Ozone Depletion

While the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is widely perceived as a space agency, since its inception NASA has had a mission dedicated to the home planet. Initially, this mission involved using space to better observe and predict weather and to enable worldwide communication. Meteorological and communication satellites showed the value of space for earthly endeavors in the 1960s. In 1972, NASA launched Landsat, and the era of earth-resource monitoring began. At the same time, in the late 1960s and early 1970s, the environmental movement swept throughout the United States and most industrialized countries. The first Earth Day event took place in 1970, and the government generally began to pay much more attention to issues of environmental quality. Mitigating pollution became an overriding objective for many agencies. NASA's existing mission to observe planet Earth was augmented in these years and directed more toward environmental quality. In the 1980s, NASA sought to plan and establish a new environmental effort that eventuated in the 1990s with the Earth Observing System (EOS). The Agency was able to make its initial mark via atmospheric monitoring, specifically ozone depletion. An important policy stimulus in many respects, ozone depletion spawned the Montreal Protocol of 1987 (the most significant international environmental treaty then in existence). It also was an issue critical to NASA's history that served as a bridge linking NASA's weather and land-resource satellites to NASA s concern for the global changes affecting the home planet. Significantly, as a global environmental problem, ozone depletion underscored the importance of NASA's ability to observe Earth from space. Moreover, the NASA management team's ability to apply large-scale research efforts and mobilize the talents of other agencies and the private sector illuminated its role as a lead agency capable of crossing organizational boundaries as well as the science-policy divide.

Lambright, W. Henry↗
NASA NTRS1992

The tropospheric emission spectrometer (TES) for the Earth Observing System (EOS)

In recent years, increasing concern has been expressed about Global Change - the natural and anthropogenic alteration of the Earth's environment involving global greenhouse warming and the associated climate change, urban and regional atmospheric pollution, acid deposition, regional increases in tropospheric zone, and the decrease in stratospheric ozone. A common theme among these problems is that they all involve those tropospheric trace gases which are fundamental to the biosphere-troposphere interaction, the chemistry of the free troposphere itself, and troposphere-stratosphere exchange. The chemical species involved all have spectral signatures within the near and mid infrared that can now be measured by advanced techniques of remote-sensing infrared spectroradiometry. Such a system is the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), now in Phase B definition for the Earth Observing System (EOS) polar platforms. TES addresses these objectives by obtaining radiometrically calibrated, linewidth-limited spectral resolution, infrared spectra of the lower atmosphere using both natural thermal emission and reflected sunlight (where appropriate) in three different, but fully programmable, modes: a gobal mode, a pointed mode, and a limb-viewing mode. The goals of TES, its instrumentation, operational modes, sensitivity and data handling are discussed.

Beer, R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

E3SM‐GCAM: A Synchronously Coupled Human Component in the E3SM Earth System Model Enables Novel Human‐Earth Feedback Research

Abstract Modeling human‐environment feedbacks is critical for assessing the effectiveness of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under a changing climate. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) now includes a human component, with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) at its core, that is synchronously coupled with the land and atmosphere components through the E3SM coupling software. Terrestrial productivity is passed from E3SM to GCAM to make climate‐responsive land use and CO 2 emission projections for the next 5‐year period, which are interpolated and passed to E3SM annually. Key variables affected by the incorporation of these feedbacks include land use/cover change, crop prices, terrestrial carbon, local surface temperature, and climate extremes. Regional differences are more pronounced than global differences because the effects are driven primarily by differences in land use. This novel system enables a new type of scenario development and provides a powerful modeling framework that facilitates the addition of other feedbacks between these models. This system has the potential to explore how human responses to climate change impacts in a variety of sectors, including heating/cooling energy demand, water management, and energy production, may alter emissions trajectories and Earth system changes. Plain Language Summary Earth system models help us understand how humans are changing the climate. Currently, these models do not include human systems, so predetermined greenhouse gas, aerosol, and land use change data are input to these models. These data do not reflect human responses to changes projected by Earth system models. We have added a human component to an Earth system model to represent human responses to environmental change and calculate corresponding greenhouse gas and land use change data instead of using predetermined data. Including this human component changes projections of land use, land carbon storage, and regional climate. Key Points We have incorporated a novel, advanceable human component in an Earth system model to simulate human‐Earth feedbacks Including terrestrial productivity feedbacks from the Earth to the human systems affects land change, crop prices, carbon, and climate Regional effects of including terrestrial productivity feedbacks are greater than global effects because land change is the main driver

E3SM↗