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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2012

Anomaly Detection in Multiple Scale for Insider Threat Analysis

We propose a method to quantify malicious insider activity with statistical and graph-based analysis aided with semantic scoring rules. Different types of personal activities or interactions are monitored to form a set of directed weighted graphs. The semantic scoring rules assign higher scores for the events more significant and suspicious. Then we build personal activity profiles in the form of score tables. Profiles are created in multiple scales where the low level profiles are aggregated toward more stable higherlevel profiles within the subject or object hierarchy. Further, the profiles are created in different time scales such as day, week, or month. During operation, the insider s current activity profile is compared to the historical profiles to produce an anomaly score. For each subject with a high anomaly score, a subgraph of connected subjects is extracted to look for any related score movement. Finally the subjects are ranked by their anomaly scores to help the analysts focus on high-scored subjects. The threat-ranking component supports the interaction between the User Dashboard and the Insider Threat Knowledge Base portal. The portal includes a repository for historical results, i.e., adjudicated cases containing all of the information first presented to the user and including any additional insights to help the analysts. In this paper we show the framework of the proposed system and the operational algorithms.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2015

On the application of betweenness centrality in chemical network analysis: Computational diagnostics and model reduction

Here, the concept of shortest path and betweenness centrality (BC) is introduced in combustion systems, with its application demonstrated in chemical network analysis and skeletal mechanism generation. After establishing the graphical representation of a chemical network for given pressure, temperature, and species concentrations, a metric BC is defined to rank the shortest paths passed by other nodes between the pair of source and target node, and as such captures the dominant indirect kinetic pathways between any pair of nodes in the network for computational diagnostics. As a result, the controlling pathways are retained by collecting the species with larger BC values. Such a notion then indicates that the index of importance of species could then be assigned based on their BC values to further guide skeletal mechanism generation. Unlike existing methods, the betweenness centrality approach takes into account of both the fluxes between species and their relative positioning within the chemical network. To demonstrate its potential utility to combustion studies, the approach was applied to the GRI-3.0, LLNL and USC-Mech II mechanisms to identify the important pathways in the chemical network at each local reaction state, and develop skeletal mechanisms from all reaction state samples in auto-ignition and perfectly stirred reactor (PSR) simulations. The performance of the BC ranking is compared to the methods of directed relation graph (DRG), DRG with error propagations (DRGEP) and sensitivity analysis (SA), and is shown to possess sufficient utility in producing skeletal mechanisms with good accuracy and flexibility for the cases studied.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2013

A spectral analysis of the domain decomposed Monte Carlo method for linear systems

The domain decomposed behavior of the adjoint Neumann-Ulam Monte Carlo method for solving linear systems is analyzed using the spectral properties of the linear operator. Relationships for the average length of the adjoint random walks, a measure of convergence speed and serial performance, are made with respect to the eigenvalues of the linear operator. In addition, relationships for the effective optical thickness of a domain in the decomposition are presented based on the spectral analysis and diffusion theory. Using the effective optical thickness, the Wigner rational approximation and the mean chord approximation are applied to estimate the leakage fraction of stochastic histories from a domain in the decomposition as a measure of parallel performance and potential communication costs. The one-speed, two-dimensional neutron diffusion equation is used as a model problem to test the models for symmetric operators. In general, the derived approximations show good agreement with measured computational results. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using mixed methods to construct and analyze a participatory agent-based model of a complex Zimbabwean agro-pastoral system

Complex social-ecological systems can be difficult to study and manage. Simulation models can facilitate exploration of system behavior under novel conditions, and participatory modeling can involve stakeholders in developing appropriate management processes. Participatory modeling already typically involves qualitative structural validation of models with stakeholders, but with increased data and more sophisticated models, quantitative behavioral validation may be possible as well. In this study, we created a novel agent-basedmodel applied to a specific context: Zimbabwean non-governmental organization the Muonde Trust has been collecting data on their agro-pastoral system for the last 35 years and had concerns about land-use planning and the effectiveness of management interventions in the face of climate change. We collaboratively created an agent-based model of their system using their data archive, qualitatively calibrating it to the observed behavior of the real system without tuning any parameters to match specific quantitative outputs. We then behaviorally validated the model using quantitative community-based data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the relative impact of underlying parameter assumptions, Indigenous management interventions, and different rainfall variation scenarios. We found that our process resulted in a model which was successfully structurally validated and sufficiently realistic to be useful for Muonde researchers as a discussion tool. The model was inconsistently behaviorally validated, however, with some model variables matching field data better than others. We observed increased model system instability due to increasing variability in underlying drivers (rainfall), and also due to management interventions that broke feedbacks between the components of the system. Interventions that smoothed year-to-year variation rather than exaggerating it tended to improve sustainability. The Muonde trust has used the model to successfully advocate to local leaders for changes in land-use planning policy that will increase the sustainability of their system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

IMRT QA: Selecting gamma criteria based on error detection sensitivity

Purpose: The gamma comparison is widely used to evaluate the agreement between measurements and treatment planning system calculations in patient-specific intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) quality assurance (QA). However, recent publications have raised concerns about the lack of sensitivity when employing commonly used gamma criteria. Understanding the actual sensitivity of a wide range of different gamma criteria may allow the definition of more meaningful gamma criteria and tolerance limits in IMRT QA. We present a method that allows the quantitative determination of gamma criteria sensitivity to induced errors which can be applied to any unique combination of device, delivery technique, and software utilized in a specific clinic. Methods: A total of 21 DMLC IMRT QA measurements (ArcCHECK®, Sun Nuclear) were compared to QA plan calculations with induced errors. Three scenarios were studied: MU errors, multi-leaf collimator (MLC) errors, and the sensitivity of the gamma comparison to changes in penumbra width. Gamma comparisons were performed between measurements and error-induced calculations using a wide range of gamma criteria, resulting in a total of over 20 000 gamma comparisons. Gamma passing rates for each error class and case were graphed against error magnitude to create error curves in order to represent the range of missed errors in routine IMRT QA using 36 different gamma criteria. Results: This study demonstrates that systematic errors and case-specific errors can be detected by the error curve analysis. Depending on the location of the error curve peak (e.g., not centered about zero), 3%/3 mm threshold = 10% at 90% pixels passing may miss errors as large as 15% MU errors and ±1 cm random MLC errors for some cases. As the dose threshold parameter was increased for a given %Diff/distance-to-agreement (DTA) setting, error sensitivity was increased by up to a factor of two for select cases. This increased sensitivity with increasing dose threshold was consistent across all studied combinations of %Diff/DTA. Criteria such as 2%/3 mm and 3%/2 mm with a 50% threshold at 90% pixels passing are shown to be more appropriately sensitive without being overly strict. However, a broadening of the penumbra by as much as 5 mm in the beam configuration was difficult to detect with commonly used criteria, as well as with the previously mentioned criteria utilizing a threshold of 50%. Conclusions: We have introduced the error curve method, an analysis technique which allows the quantitative determination of gamma criteria sensitivity to induced errors. The application of the error curve method using DMLC IMRT plans measured on the ArcCHECK® device demonstrated that large errors can potentially be missed in IMRT QA with commonly used gamma criteria (e.g., 3%/3 mm, threshold = 10%, 90% pixels passing). Additionally, increasing the dose threshold value can offer dramatic increases in error sensitivity. This approach may allow the selection of more meaningful gamma criteria for IMRT QA and is straightforward to apply to other combinations of devices and treatment techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Visualization of metabolic interaction networks in microbial communities using VisANT 5.0

Here, the complexity of metabolic networks in microbial communities poses an unresolved visualization and interpretation challenge. We address this challenge in the newly expanded version of a software tool for the analysis of biological networks, VisANT 5.0. We focus in particular on facilitating the visual exploration of metabolic interaction between microbes in a community, e.g. as predicted by COMETS (Computation of Microbial Ecosystems in Time and Space), a dynamic stoichiometric modeling framework. Using VisANT's unique meta-graph implementation, we show how one can use VisANT 5.0 to explore different time-dependent ecosystem-level metabolic networks. In particular, we analyze the metabolic interaction network between two bacteria previously shown to display an obligate cross-feeding interdependency. In addition, we illustrate how a putative minimal gut microbiome community could be represented in our framework, making it possible to highlight interactions across multiple coexisting species. We envisage that the "symbiotic layout" of VisANT can be employed as a general tool for the analysis of metabolism in complex microbial communities as well as heterogeneous human tissues.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Fault diagnosis and severity estimation in nuclear power plants - 196

Signed Directed Graph (SDG) is a type of fault diagnosis method with a capability to display the complex relationship between plant parameters and reveal the potential danger and the propagation path when a fault occurs in a nuclear plant. However, the fault diagnosis method based on qualitative SDG model inevitably has a number of disadvantages, and some of these disadvantages include its inability to identify reoccurring faults; ambiguous reasoning that can result in low resolution; performance that relies on the accuracy of the model; slow diagnosis rate for large systems and poor real-time diagnosis, among others. In this paper, we propose an SDG fault diagnosis methodology based on Granular Computing Theory, referred to as Granular Computing Signed Directed Graph (GCSDG). This paper shows how knowledge reduction nature of granular computing based fault diagnosis can simplify the decision table, reduce the allocation of resources, scale-down the complexity of the problem and improve the efficiency of data processing. Then, we estimate the severity of the fault using Back Propagation (BP) neural network approach. The proposed methodology was verified by considering certain faults in the primary loop of a PWR, using PCTRAN. The result shows a considerable improvement in fault diagnosis and the severity estimated serves as a useful information for the operator, providing a firm foundation for further intervention. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Vehicle Technologies Fact of the Week 2015

Each week the U.S. Department of Energy s Vehicle Technology Office (VTO) posts a Fact of the Week on their website: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/ . These Facts provide statistical information, usually in the form of charts and tables, on vehicle sales, fuel economy, gasoline prices, and other transportation-related trends. Each Fact is a stand-alone page that includes a graph, text explaining the significance of the data, the supporting information on which the graph was based, and the source of the data. A link to the current week s Fact is available on the VTO homepage, but older Facts (back to 2009) are archived and still available at: http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/current-and-past-years-facts-week. Each Fact of the Week website page includes a link to an Excel file. That file contains the data from the Supporting Information section of the page so that researchers can easily use data from the Fact of the Week in their work. Beginning in August of 2015, a subscription list is available on the DOE website so that those interested can sign up for an email to be sent each Monday which includes the text and graphic from the current week s Fact. This report is a compilation of the Facts that were posted during calendar year 2015. The Facts were created, written and prepared by staff in Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Center for Transportation Analysis.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2011

Energy-water analysis of the 10-year WECC transmission planning study cases.

In 2011 the Department of Energy's Office of Electricity embarked on a comprehensive program to assist our Nation's three primary electric interconnections with long term transmission planning. Given the growing concern over water resources in the western U.S. the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) requested assistance with integrating water resource considerations into their broader electric transmission planning. The result is a project with three overarching objectives: (1) Develop an integrated Energy-Water Decision Support System (DSS) that will enable planners in the Western Interconnection to analyze the potential implications of water stress for transmission and resource planning. (2) Pursue the formulation and development of the Energy-Water DSS through a strongly collaborative process between the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), Western Governors Association (WGA), the Western States Water Council (WSWC) and their associated stakeholder teams. (3) Exercise the Energy-Water DSS to investigate water stress implications of the transmission planning scenarios put forward by WECC, WGA, and WSWC. The foundation for the Energy-Water DSS is Sandia National Laboratories Energy-Power-Water Simulation (EPWSim) model (Tidwell et al. 2009). The modeling framework targets the shared needs of energy and water producers, resource managers, regulators, and decision makers at the federal, state and local levels. This framework provides an interactive environment to explore trade-offs, and 'best' alternatives among a broad list of energy/water options and objectives. The decision support framework is formulated in a modular architecture, facilitating tailored analyses over different geographical regions and scales (e.g., state, county, watershed, interconnection). An interactive interface allows direct control of the model and access to real-time results displayed as charts, graphs and maps. The framework currently supports modules for calculating water withdrawal and consumption for current and planned electric power generation; projected water demand from competing use sectors; and, surface and groundwater availability. WECC's long range planning is organized according to two target planning horizons, a 10-year and a 20-year. This study supports WECC in the 10-year planning endeavor. In this case the water implications associated with four of WECC's alternative future study cases (described below) are calculated and reported. In future phases of planning we will work with WECC to craft study cases that aim to reduce the thermoelectric footprint of the interconnection and/or limit production in the most water stressed regions of the West.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data Summarization and Inference at Scale

This is the final report for the DOE ASCR grant SC-0022260, Data Summarization and Inference at Scale, PI: Alex Pothen, Purdue University. The goal of the project was to solve data-intensive and compute-intensive problems in the physical sciences, engineering, information science, data science, etc. by designing and implementing new algorithms that could work with a subset of the data. The four subgoals were: (a) The solution of problems where the data is too large to be stored in the memory of a computer. In this streaming model of computation, the data arrives as a stream of elements to the computer, each element is processed as it arrives, and a decision is made to discard the data or to store it; only a small subset of the data proportional to the size of the output solution is stored, and when all the data has been streamed, a solution to the problem is computed from the stored subset. (b) The use of machine learning methods to compute solutions to data-intensive problems. The use of GPUs is critical to obtain high performance on machine learning tasks, but their memory sizes are smaller relative to that of CPUs. For large-scale problems, the data is sampled many times, and small samples are used with repetition, for robustness, to compute solutions to inference tasks. This sampling reduces the memory required to solve the problem, but attention is needed to avoid slow convergence to the solutions, and reduced accuracy of inference. We propose submodular optimization, Large Language Models, and physics-informed neural networks to enable GPU computations here. (c) Modeling and visualization of high-dimensional data using interpretable features. Clinical proteomic data sets from immunology for the detection of cancer and other diseases are temporal and high-dimensional, and algorithms for visualizing these data sets using clinically interpretable features are lacking. We propose methods that compute distances based on the optimal transportation problem and graph edit distances to address this problem. We also propose the use of optimal transport-based distances, spatial statistics, and network structure to classify image data sets, We apply these algorithms to electron micrographs of the peripheral nervous system in the digestive tract. (d) The design of data-intensive algorithms on emerging architectures, specifically, noisy, intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. Quantum computers offer the possibility of exploring large solution spaces due to the principle of superposition, but current quantum computers are limited by few qubits, short coherence times due to noise, poor interconections among the qubits, etc. We propose the use of the divide and conquer paradigm to solve large-scale problems, wherein collections of small subproblems are solved on the quantum devices, and the solutions to the subproblems are integrated into a solution for the original problem on a classical computer.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

A Structure-Preserving Model and Sufficient Condition for Frequency Synchronization of Lossless Droop Inverter-Based AC Networks

This paper presents a new method for analysis of frequency synchronization of lossless power networks whose sources are frequency-droop controlled inverters. Unlike most existing approaches, our method focuses on the interaction between inverters and the network to provide new physical insight into how those interactions create frequency synchronization. We introduce two structure-preserving models of such a network (one bus-oriented and one line-oriented), and show that frequency synchronization corresponds to convergence to an equilibrium of these models. We derive a necessary condition for existence of such equilibria, and determine a simple test for their local stability. Finally, we introduce a sufficient condition for frequency synchronization of such networks, and show that it consists of a set of local criteria which can each be determined from local measurements.

Distributed control↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-242: A Method for Collision Avoidance in External Beam Radiation Therapy

Purpose: We proposed a method for collision avoidance (CA) in external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). The method encompasses the analysis of all positions of the moving components of the beam delivery system such as the treatment table and gantry, including patient specific information obtained from the CT images. This method eliminates the need for time-consuming dry-runs prior to the actual treatments. Methods: The QA procedure for EBRT requires that the collision should be checked prior to treatment. We developed a system capable of a rigorous computer simulation of all moving components including positions of the couch and gantry during the delivery, position of the patients, and imaging equipment. By running this treatment simulation it is possible to quantify and graphically represent all positions and corresponding trajectories of all points of the moving parts during the treatment delivery. The development of the workflow for implementation of the CA includes several steps: a) derivation of combined dynamic equation of motion of the EBRT delivery systems, b) developing the simulation model capable of drawing the motion trajectories of the specific points, c) developing the interface between the model and the treatment plan parameters such as couch and gantry parameters for each field. Results: The patient CT images were registered to the treatment couch so the patient dimensions were included into the simulation. The treatment field parameters were structured in the xml-file which was used as the input into the dynamic equations. The trajectories of the moving components were plotted on the same graph using the dynamic equations. If the trajectories intersect that was the signal that collision exists. Conclusion: This CA method was proved to be effective in the simulation of treatment delivery. The proper implementation of this system can potentially improve the QA program and increase the efficacy in the clinical setup.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enabling Scalable and Extensible Memory-mapped Datastores in Userspace

Exascale workloads are expected to incorporate data-intensive processing in close coordination with traditional physics simulations. These emerging scientific, data-analytics and machine learning applications need to access a wide variety of datastores in flat files and structured databases. Programmer productivity is greatly enhanced by mapping datastores into the application process's virtual memory space to provide a unified “in-memory” interface. Currently, memory mapping is provided by system software primarily designed for generality and reliability. However, scalability at high concurrency is a formidable challenge on exascale systems. Also, there is a need for extensibility to support new datastores potentially requiring HPC data transfer services. In this article, we present UMap , a scalable and extensible userspace service for memory-mapping datastores. Furthermore, through decoupled queue management, concurrency aware adaptation, and dynamic load balancing, UMap enables application performance to scale even at high concurrency. We evaluate UMap in data-intensive applications, including sorting, graph traversal, database operations, and metagenomic analytics. Our results show that UMap as a userspace service outperforms an optimized kernel-based service across a wide range of intra-node concurrency by 1.22-1.9 × . We performed two case studies to demonstrate UMap 's extensibility. First, a new datastore residing in remote memory is incorporated into UMap as an application-specific plugin. Second, we present a persistent memory allocator Metall built atop UMap for unified storage/memory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

BuildingQA: A Benchmark for Natural Language Question Answering over Building Knowledge Graphs

Graph-based representations of building metadata using ontologies like Brick are vital for smart building applications, but querying them remains a challenge for practitioners. Knowledge Graph Question Answering (KGQA) systems, meant to retrieve answers from natural language questions, traditionally require large-scale training data, making them ill-suited for the specialized and data-scarce building domain. The advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) offers a paradigm shift, enabling zero-shot natural language querying without building/domain-specific training. Yet, there is no standardized benchmark for building-specific KGQA which can guide and validate research in this area. To address this gap, our work makes three primary contributions. First, we introduce the BuildingQA Benchmark Dataset, constructed through a multi-stage process of collecting practitioner data, augmenting it with LLMs for linguistic diversity, and curating a final set of 188 questions across 4 buildings. Second, we characterize the benchmark's complexity and ambiguity, introducing a novel method to quantify its "lexical gap" and providing a four-stage diagnostic framework for analyzing how systems fail. Third, we benchmark zero-shot LLM-powered KGQA systems to establish baseline performance and analyze their failure modes. Our evaluation reveals that top-performing systems achieve a maximum F1 score of only 0.38. This result does not indicate a failure of these powerful systems, but rather underscores the unique challenges posed by our benchmark. It demonstrates a critical performance gap, showing that current methods successful on general KGs struggle with the specific lexical and structural nuances of the building domain. BuildingQA1 thus provides the benchmark dataset and foundational analysis needed to drive the development of novel, domain-aware methods required to unlock the use of semantic data in buildings.

Mulayim, Ozan Baris↗
DOE OSTI2014

A Visual Analytics Approach to Structured Data Analysis to Enhance Nonproliferation and Arms Control Verification Activities

Analysis activities for Nonproliferation and Arms Control verification require the use of many types of data. Tabular structured data, such as Excel spreadsheets and relational databases, have traditionally been used for data mining activities, where specific queries are issued against data to look for matching results. The application of visual analytics tools to structured data enables further exploration of datasets to promote discovery of previously unknown results. This paper discusses the application of a specific visual analytics tool to datasets related to the field of Arms Control and Nonproliferation to promote the use of visual analytics more broadly in this domain. Visual analytics focuses on analytical reasoning facilitated by interactive visual interfaces (Wong and Thomas 2004). It promotes exploratory analysis of data, and complements data mining technologies where known patterns can be mined for. Also with a human in the loop, they can bring in domain knowledge and subject matter expertise. Visual analytics has not widely been applied to this domain. In this paper, we will focus on one type of data: structured data, and show the results of applying a specific visual analytics tool to answer questions in the Arms Control and Nonproliferation domain. We chose to use the T.Rex tool, a visual analytics tool developed at PNNL, which uses a variety of visual exploration patterns to discover relationships in structured datasets, including a facet view, graph view, matrix view, and timeline view. The facet view enables discovery of relationships between categorical information, such as countries and locations. The graph tool visualizes node-link relationship patterns, such as the flow of materials being shipped between parties. The matrix visualization shows highly correlated categories of information. The timeline view shows temporal patterns in data. In this paper, we will use T.Rex with two different datasets to demonstrate how interactive exploration of the data can aid an analyst with arms control and nonproliferation verification activities. Using a dataset from PIERS (PIERS 2014), we will show how container shipment imports and exports can aid an analyst in understanding the shipping patterns between two countries. We will also use T.Rex to examine a collection of research publications from the IAEA International Nuclear Information System (IAEA 2014) to discover collaborations of concern. We hope this paper will encourage the use of visual analytics structured data analytics in the field of nonproliferation and arms control verification. Our paper outlines some of the challenges that exist before broad adoption of these kinds of tools can occur and offers next steps to overcome these challenges.

arms control↗
DOE OSTI2016

Hyperspectral target detection using manifold learning and multiple target spectra

Imagery collected from satellites and airborne platforms provides an important tool for remotely analyzing the content of a scene. In particular, the ability to remotely detect a specific material within a scene is of critical importance in nonproliferation and other applications. The sensor systems that process hyperspectral images collect the high-dimensional spectral information necessary to perform these detection analyses. For a d-dimensional hyperspectral image, however, where d is the number of spectral bands, it is common for the data to inherently occupy an m-dimensional space with m << d. In the remote sensing community, this has led to recent interest in the use of manifold learning, which seeks to characterize the embedded lower-dimensional, nonlinear manifold that the data discretely approximate. The research presented in this paper focuses on a graph theory and manifold learning approach to target detection, using an adaptive version of locally linear embedding that is biased to separate target pixels from background pixels. Finally, this approach incorporates multiple target signatures for a particular material, accounting for the spectral variability that is often present within a solid material of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Hierarchical Spatio-temporal Visual Analysis of Cluster Evolution in Electrocorticography Data

Here, we present ECoG ClusterFlow, a novel interactive visual analysis tool for the exploration of high-resolution Electrocorticography (ECoG) data. Our system detects and visualizes dynamic high-level structures, such as communities, using the time-varying spatial connectivity network derived from the high-resolution ECoG data. ECoG ClusterFlow provides a multi-scale visualization of the spatio-temporal patterns underlying the time-varying communities using two views: 1) an overview summarizing the evolution of clusters over time and 2) a hierarchical glyph-based technique that uses data aggregation and small multiples techniques to visualize the propagation of clusters in their spatial domain. ECoG ClusterFlow makes it possible 1) to compare the spatio-temporal evolution patterns across various time intervals, 2) to compare the temporal information at varying levels of granularity, and 3) to investigate the evolution of spatial patterns without occluding the spatial context information. Lastly, we present case studies done in collaboration with neuroscientists on our team for both simulated and real epileptic seizure data aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of our approach.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SIGNATURES OF ILLICIT NUCLEAR PROCUREMENT NETWORKS: AN OVERVIEW OF PRELIMINARY APPROACHES AND RESULTS

The illicit trafficking of strategic nuclear commodities (defined here as the goods needed for a covert nuclear program excluding special nuclear materials) poses a significant challenge to the international nuclear nonproliferation community. Export control regulations, both domestically and internationally, seek to inhibit the spread of strategic nuclear commodities by restricting their sale to parties that may use them for nefarious purposes. However, export controls alone are not sufficient for preventing the illicit transfer of strategic nuclear goods. There are two major pitfalls to relying solely on export control regulations for the deterrence of proliferation of strategic goods. First, export control enforcement today relies heavily on the honesty and willingness of participants to adhere to the legal framework already in place. Secondly, current practices focus on the evaluation of single records which allow for the necessary goods to be purchased separately and hidden within the thousands of legitimate commerce transactions that occur each day, disregarding strategic information regarding several purchases. Our research presents two preliminary data-centric approaches for investigating procurement networks of strategic nuclear commodities. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been putting significant effort into nonproliferation activities as an institution, both in terms of the classical nuclear material focused approach and in the examination of other strategic goods necessary to implement a nuclear program. In particular, the PNNL Signature Discovery Initiative (SDI) has codified several scientific methodologies for the detection, characterization, and prediction of signatures that are indicative of a phenomenon of interest. The methodologies and tools developed under SDI have already been applied successfully to problems in bio-forensics, cyber security and power grid balancing efforts and they have now made the nonproliferation of strategic goods into a challenge problem for testing their methodology and tools. As a first step towards the detection and characterization of illicit procurement networks, our research examines procurement networks as defined by a system of entities (people or companies) that enter into transactions of specific items with one another. Once we have defined such networks, we are interested in answering questions about the behavior and characterization of such networks. The questions we wish to answer regarding procurement networks are, first, “Can we detect networks within large, noisy datasets?” and second, “To what extent can we compare multiple networks and identify their similarities?” As procurement networks can be naturally viewed as a graph, we have employed several graph analytic tools to aid in these tasks. In particular, Graphscape, an SDI tool, uses a novel method to approximate edit distance, a graph distance measure based on the number of changes needed to transform one graph into another, in order to measure how similar two given graphs are to each other. Given a set of graphs where vertices represent companies and edges represent a shipment from company A to company B, we can calculate an all-for-all comparison of graphs. In this way, we are able to determine which graphs are most similar, and which require more changes to transform one into the other. The set of graphs to be compared can be further specialized to provide more insight, e.g., using different time periods to explore events in a company life cycle.

graph analysis↗