Modeling the Information Supply Chain Backbone of GEOINT Data Gathering and Analysis Systems.
Abstract not provided.
Anderson, Kai↗
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Tandem pyrolysis evolved gas–gas chromatography–mass spectrometry
Analysis of byproducts from thermal degradation of polymer materials provides a wealth of information about a materials’ composition, thermal stability, degradation mechanisms, and kinetics. However, regardless of the instrumentation used, only limited information is obtainable from a single experiment. Microfurnace technology, when interfaced to a gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), can be used to obtain both thermal and chemical information via evolved gas analysis-MS (EGA-MS) and GC-MS analysis modes. While both EGA-MS and Py-GC-MS are valuable when characterizing polymer materials, at least two experiments on distinct samples are required, which can be a liability for clear interpretation of results from inhomogeneous samples. Here, we seek to overcome this limitation by combining EGA-MS and Py-GC-MS modes in a single experimental setup. Further, this was done by developing new gas line modifications to allow for tandem Pyrolysis Evolved Gas-Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (Py/EG-GC-MS) analysis. Verification of Py/EG-GC-MS analysis was performed using a polystyrene standard. Results demonstrate successful Py/EG-GC-MS analysis for the first-time showing the potential of these modifications for application in areas where sample is limited or direct correlation of products to the thermal profile is desirable such as in forensics or product-specific kinetics.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Assessing Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Types: Relevant Data and Play Fairway Analysis Methods
This data catalog contains information on low temperature geothermal play types. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) supports the Geothermal Heating and Cooling Geospatial Datasets and Analysis project, conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This project is part of a broader effort to demonstrate the multifaceted value of integrating geothermal power and geothermal heating and cooling technologies into national decarbonization strategies and community energy plans. There is a need to establish baseline low-temperature geothermal resource data sets and evaluate methods for deploying these technologies. This project aims to reduce exploration risk of low temperature geothermal systems by collecting baseline datasets that can be used for Play Fairway Analysis methodologies. This data catalog contains links to publicly available datasets from different sources that can be relevant for the low temperature geothermal systems. This submission contains data catalogs for Alaska, Hawaii, and the Conterminous United States, as well as a technical report on the methods used to classify and asses the geothermal play types.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Performance analysis and comparison of data-driven models for predicting indoor temperature in multi-zone commercial buildings
Building thermal models, which characterize the properties of a building’s envelope and thermal mass, are essential for accurate indoor temperature and cooling/heating demand prediction. Because of their flexibility and ease of use, data-driven models are increasingly used. Here, this study compared and analyzed the performance of gray-box (resistance-capacitance) and black-box (recurrent neural network) models for predicting indoor air temperature in a real multi-zone commercial building. The developed resistance-capacitance model served as a benchmark model for which full sets of temporal data and building information were used as inputs. The recurrent neural network models were trained and tested assuming various available types and amounts of temporal data and known building physical information to investigate the effects of data and information availability. Feature importance analysis was conducted to select the key variables for different prediction targets under different scenarios. This research provides guidance in selecting an appropriate building thermal response modeling method based on the measured data availability, building physical information, and application.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Validation of finite-element models using full-field experimental data: Levelling finite-element analysis data through a digital image correlation engine
Full-field data from digital image correlation (DIC) provide rich information for finite-element analysis (FEA) validation. However, there are several inherent inconsistencies between FEA and DIC data that must be rectified before meaningful, quantitative comparisons can be made, including strain formulations, coordinate systems, data locations, strain calculation algorithms, spatial resolutions and data filtering. As such, in this paper, we investigate two full-field validation approaches: (1) the direct interpolation approach, which addresses the first three inconsistencies by interpolating the quantity of interest from one mesh to the other, and (2) the proposed DIC-levelling approach, which addresses all six inconsistencies simultaneously by processing the FEA data through a stereo-DIC simulator to ‘level’ the FEA data to the DIC data in a regularisation sense. Synthetic ‘experimental’ DIC data were generated based on a reference FEA of an exemplar test specimen. The direct interpolation approach was applied, and significant strain errorswere computed, even though therewas no model form error, because the filtering effect of theDIC enginewas neglected. In contrast, the levelling approach provided accurate validation results, with no strain error when no model form error was present. Next, model form error was purposefully introduced via a mismatch of boundary conditions. With the direct interpolation approach, the mismatch in boundary conditions was completely obfuscated, while with the levelling approach, it was clearly observed. Finally, the ‘experimental’ DIC datawere purposefully misaligned slightly fromthe FEA data. Both validation techniques suffered from the misalignment, thus motivating continued efforts to develop a robust alignment process. In conclusion, direct interpolation is insufficient, and the proposed levelling approach is required to ensure that the FEA and the DIC data have the same spatial resolution and data filtering. Only after the FEA data have been ‘levelled’ to the DIC data can meaningful, quantitative error maps be computed.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Nonlinear Information from DESI Luminous Red Galaxies: An Emulator-Based Analysis of Pre- and Post-Reconstruction Power Spectra
We present joint measurements of the pre- and post-reconstruction power spectra, $P_{\rm pre}$ and $P_{\rm post}$, together with their cross-power spectrum, $P_{\rm cross}$, for the Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) in the DESI Data Release 1 (DR1). We jointly analyse these observables with an emulator-based full-shape modeling framework, thereby, for the first time, we extract complementary nonlinear information from the galaxy density field before and after reconstruction in real survey data. Specifically, including $P_{\rm post}$ and $P_{\rm cross}$ in addition to $P_{\rm pre}$ (hereafter $P_{\rm all}$) yields an improvement of approximately $18$-$27\%$ in the $σ_8$ constraint in both $Λ$CDM and $w$CDM, depending on the redshift bin, relative to the $P_{\rm pre}$-only analysis with the cosmic microwave background distance priors (hereafter CMB). In $w$CDM, the joint CMB+$P_{\rm all}$ analysis can tighten the constraints on $w$ by approximately $5$-$15\%$ across the two LRG redshift bins, compared to the CMB+$P_{\rm pre}$ combination. Further incorporating the Type Ia supernova dataset and comparing the cosmological constraints in $w$CDM from each individual power-spectrum component with those from the full combination, we find that $P_{\rm all}$ consistently provides the tightest constraints. From the joint CMB+$P_{\rm all}$+DES-Dovekie dataset, we obtain $Ω_m = 0.314 \pm 0.0048$ and $w = -0.988 \pm 0.023$ for the \texttt{LRG1} sample, and $Ω_m = 0.318 \pm 0.0046$ and $w = -0.988 \pm 0.025$ for \texttt{LRG2}. These results demonstrate that combining pre- and post-reconstruction power spectra with their cross-correlation enables DESI to harvest additional nonlinear information, leading to tighter constraints on cosmological parameters.
Wang, Yuting [NAOC, Beijing; Beijing, GUCAS] (ORCI↗
Total metal, carbon, anion, iron speciation, and sulfide concentrations; Slate River, East River, and Trail Creek surface water and floodplains, Crested Butte, CO; May 2023–August 2023
This data package comprises analytical results and metadata from stream and groundwater samples collected from the Slate River, East River, Trail Creek, and their respective floodplains. This dataset contains five files: (1) a samples file (2023_SFA_Field_samples.csv) that contains site information; (2) a chemical analysis data file (2023_FieldWaterSampleData_IC__ICPOES__ICPMS__TOC__Fe__S_chem_data.csv) that contains sample analysis values; (3) a file-level metadata file (flmd.csv) that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; (4) a data dictionary file (dd.csv) that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with definitions, units, and data types; and (5) a methods file (methods.csv) that contains ID, type, description, instrument, and lab information for each method.The samples’ anion concentrations were measured using ion chromatography (IC), total metal concentrations using inductively coupled plasma emission spectrometry (ICP-OES) and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), non-purgeable organic carbon using total organic carbon (TOC) analysis, dissolved sulfide concentration using methylene blue spectrophotometry, and iron speciation using the ferrozine assay. To support bulk chemical analyses and colloid characterization, samples were collected from multiple depths ranging from the surface to 3.5 meters below ground.Update on 2024-10-18: Updates were made to the 2023_FieldWaterSampleData_IC__ICPOES__ICPMS__TOC__Fe__S_chem_data.csv and dd.csv files to correct units (ppb instead of ppm).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Precursor Analysis Report: Conti Ransomware Attack on the Health Service Executive of Ireland 2021
The Conti Ransomware Attack on the Health Service Executive (HSE) of Ireland 2021 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed by the adversary. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. The HSE provides public healthcare corporate services and operational services throughout Ireland, with critical functions including the acute national ambulance service, acute hospital service, and community healthcare service. On 14 May 2021, Conti ransomware encrypted 80 percent of the HSE’s Information Technology (IT) infrastructure across corporate, hospital, community, and electronic health record services. Conti is a ransomware-as-a-service operation that encrypts local files, uses double extortion against victims, and is facilitated by many intrusion tools. The attack forced the HSE to shut down its entire IT infrastructure to contain the ransomware, forcing employees to revert to pen and paper recordkeeping and leading to the cancellation of many appointments and procedures. The adversary also exfiltrated 700 GB of data, compromising the confidentiality of patients’ protected health information. Had the adversary targeted the COVID-19 cloud systems or operational technology assets, such as Internet of Medical Things medical devices or smart building management systems, the impact of the attack would almost certainly have been far more severe. Researchers and analysts identified 21 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 23 steps) likely utilized during the attack with a total of 1,185 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-one of the identified techniques used during the attack on the HSE were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 1,086 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 850 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 57 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DECOVALEX-2023, Task F Specification, Revision 8
This report is the revised (Revision 8) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation. Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both of the reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DECOVALEX-2023 Task F Specification (Rev. 9)
This report is the revised (Revision 9) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DECOVALEX-2023: Task F Specification (Revision 10)
This report is the revised (Revision 10) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Closure to “Coincidence Risk Analysis of Floods Using Multivariate Copulas: Case Study of Jinsha River and Min River, China” by Yang Peng, Yulong Shi, Hongxiang Yan, Kai Chen, and Jipeng Zhang
We would like to thank the discusser for his comments on the coincidence flood risk modeling in Jinsha River and Min River, China. The discusser’s comment brings focus to the discussion of extreme-value selection methodology and historical flood information. In flood risk analysis, we acknowledge that there is always an alternative modeling approach that could be used to generate desired prediction results. In this comment, the discusser made two valuable points regarding the original paper, and the following two paragraphs provide our responses.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Measuring quantum discord at the LHC
There has been an increasing interest in exploring quantities associated with quantum information at colliders. We perform a detailed analysis describing how to measure the quantum discord in the top anti-top quantum state at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). While for pure states, quantum discord, entanglement, and Bell nonlocality all probe the same correlations, for mixed states they probe different aspects of quantum correlations. The quantum discord, in particular, is interesting because it aims to encapsulate all correlations between systems that cannot have a classical origin. We employ two complementary approaches for the study of the top anti-top system, namely the decay method and the kinematic method. We highlight subtleties associated with measuring discord for reconstructed quantum states at colliders. Usually quantum discord is difficult to compute due to an extremization that must be performed. We show, however, that for the $t\bar{t}$ system this extremization can be performed analytically and we provide closed-form formulas for the quantum discord. We demonstrate that with current LHC datasets, quantum discord can be observed at 3.6 – 5.7σ, depending on the signal region, with the decay method and can be measured at a precision of 0.1 – 0.2% with the kinematic method. At the high luminosity LHC, the observation of quantum discord is expected to be > 5σ using both the decay and kinematic methods and can be measured with a precision of 5% with the decay method and 0.05% with the kinematic method. Additionally, we identify the kinematic cuts at the LHC to isolate the $t\bar{t}$ state that is separable but has non-zero discord. By systematically investigating quantum discord for the first time through a detailed collider analysis, this work expands the toolkit for quantum information studies in particle physics and lays the groundwork for deeper insights into the quantum properties in high-energy collisions.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Report on the Use and Function of the Integrated Operations Capability Analysis Platform (ICAP) and the LWRS Innovation Portal (IP)
The commercial nuclear power industry has achieved excellent safety and reliability performance but is struggling to survive in an electricity market that is increasingly dominated by subsidized renewables and cheap natural gas. These challenges have forced utilities to explore previously uncharted avenues to drastically reduce the operations and maintenance costs of their plants which are the primary drivers of the total cost to produce electricity. The petrochemical industry faced similar challenges some years ago as the costs of extraction and processing were rising while their reservoirs were being depleted along with a drop-in commodity prices that resulted in unsustainable operations. In this challenging climate, they developed a business model called Integrated Operations (IO) that sought to utilize technology to enable news ways of working through the integration of people, technology, process and governance changes. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, working with IFE have developed an operating model via transferable learnings from the North Sea O&G industry. This framework is termed “Integrated Operations for Nuclear” (ION). ION is a transformation model that integrates the benefits and features of four principal factors: People, Technology, Process and Governance. The purpose of this report is to describe how to generate an ION business process analysis and utilize this information to reduce O&M costs. In order to make this job easier, DOE LWRS has created a suite of tools that will allow a person who is involved in a transformation effort at their company to build a solid documented business case for embarking on a major transformation effort. These tools, the Integrated Operations Capability Analysis Model (ICAP) and the LWRS Innovation Portal (IP) are described herein with instructions on their use. Instructions on how the interface with the EPRI Business Case Analysis Method (BCAM) are also provided.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Complementary workflows for identifying one-hop network behavior and multi-hop network dependencies
A network analysis tool evaluates network flow information in complementary workflows to identify one-hop behavior of network assets and also identify multi-hop dependencies between network assets. In one workflow (e.g., using association rule learning), the network analysis tool can identify significant one-hop communication patterns to and/or from network assets, taken individually. Based on the identified one-hop behavior, the network analysis tool can discover patterns of similar communication among different network assets, which can inform decisions about deploying patch sets, mitigating damage, configuring a system, or detecting anomalous behavior. In a different workflow (e.g., using deep learning or cross-correlation analysis), the network analysis tool can identify significant multi-hop communication patterns that involve network assets in combination. Based on the identified multi-hop dependencies, the network analysis tool can discover functional relationships between network assets, which can inform decisions about configuring a system, managing critical network assets, or protecting critical network assets.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A Risk-Informed Performance-Based Methodology to Manage Fire Protection Systems in Nuclear Facilities
Fire protection systems (FPSs) and features are installed in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hazard Category 1, 2, or 3 nuclear facilities to protect property (maximum possible fire loss thresholds), life, and nuclear safety (i.e., structures, systems, and components). These FPSs and features are designed and maintained in accordance with the prescriptive guidance provided in applicable building codes and National Fire Protection Association codes and standards. Management, operations, and maintenance activities of FPSs involve significant effort. A DOE facility’s documented safety analysis or other safety basis document could also rely on FPSs to provide either a safety significant or safety class function to mitigate fire hazards and minimize radiological consequences. In some cases, the designation of safety significant or safety class may be determined to provide a layer of defense-in-depth to minimize nuclear safety risks independent of the fire risk. DOE standards allow the use of performance-based design alternatives developed by the fire industry but do not consider the defense-in-depth layers of protection provided in DOE facilities to prevent or mitigate the risks associated with unintended release of radioactive materials into the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a decision-making methodology tailored for DOE non-reactor nuclear facilities to manage FPSs and features by integrating nuclear safety risk insights into a performance-based analysis. This risk-informed, performance-based (RIPB) methodology can be used to provide the technical basis for classifying an FPS as safety class and safety significant, tailoring administrative controls (e.g., technical safety requirements), and ranking the importance of FPSs to prioritize maintenance, upgrades, and replacement activities. The RIPB methodology is a graded approach to inform DOE facility owners and Fire Protection Program managers of the most risk-significant FPSs and equipment, and those systems would be cost-beneficial to relax rigor if there is a need to re-design the FPS coverage or deviate from DOE and National Fire Protection Association standards for those systems that would be less significant. This paper describes the framework used to develop the RIPB methodology and the outcome of implementing this methodology in a use-case nuclear facility. This paper also discusses the impact to DOE policies and standards and the safety margins and defense-in-depth measures credited in nuclear safety assessments in a facility’s documented safety analysis and the benefits of implementing an RIPB methodology in lieu of a prescriptive method to comply with fire protection requirements.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Multi-element isotopic analysis of hot particles from Chornobyl
Microscopic fuel fragments, so-called “hot particles”, were released during the 1986 accident at the Chornobyl nuclear powerplant and continue to contaminate the exclusion zone in northern Ukraine. Isotopic analysis can provide vital information about sample origin, history and contamination of the environment, though it has been underutilized due to the destructive nature of most mass spectrometric techniques, and inability to remove isobaric interference. Recent developments have diversified the range of elements that can be investigated through resonance ionization mass spectrometry (RIMS), notably in the fission products. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the application of multi-element analysis on hot particles as relates to their burnup, particle formation in the accident, and weathering. The particles were analysed with two RIMS instruments: resonant-laser secondary neutral mass spectrometry (rL-SNMS) at the Institute for Radiation Protection and Radioecology (IRS) in Hannover, Germany, and laser ionization of neutrals (LION) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in Livermore, USA. Comparable results across instruments show a range of burnup dependent isotope ratios for U and Pu and Cs, characteristic of RBMK-type reactors. Results for Rb, Ba and Sr show the influence of the environment, retention of Cs in the particles and time passed since fuel discharge.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
An Applied Strategy for Using Empirical and Hybrid Models in Online Monitoring
The monitoring of plant equipment for failure prediction is one of the key contributors to operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for a nuclear power plant (NPP) because O&M monitoring depends on labor-intensive activities that are required to meet high equipment reliability standards. These activities rely primarily on humans for information gathering, condition diagnosis, and predictive analysis. Online monitoring aims to automate these activities by relying on sensors to replace human information gathering and machine learning to replace human analysis and decision making. To facilitate automated monitoring, a systematic strategy for anomaly detection is needed to optimally use the available sensor data, empirical models, and physics-supported models. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical (i.e., purely data-driven) versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. The extant methods usually adopt an ad hoc trial-and-error approach that, in addition to being time-consuming and costly, is also highly subjective; it is impacted by the background and the skill set of the personnel making the decisions. Thus, such an approach cannot guarantee an optimum outcome. This represents the motivation of the current research effort, which is focused on devising a scientifically supported strategy for the optimum selection of anomaly detection methods. This report presents a detailed assessment of the main anomaly detection techniques within the empirical or hybrid method streams. Empirical methods include pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The listed techniques within these two streams represent the vast majority of techniques performed for anomaly detection. Using the techniques as outcomes, a strategy was developed to enable a systematic decision-making process to lead to one of these techniques. The strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. Each of these decision points in the strategy is explained in detail in this report with examples, along with the scientific basis behind the decisions and outcomes in common and simplified terminology. The strategy is developed for use by any NPP staff with basic engineering or science knowledge. A user-friendly graphical state flow diagram was also developed as a visual presentation of the strategy. The strategy was tested and demonstrated through two pilot projects for the application of anomaly detection at an NPP. Each pilot had two use cases: an initial case in which certain decisions were made that resulted in one or more empirical techniques and a revised use case where one or more key decisions were modified resulting in using a set of hybrid methods.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗