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Statistical prediction methods for short-term (months) and long-term (years) forecasting of solar activity were studied. The comparisons indicate that better predictions, in a chi square sense, are possible by lining up the maximum (or minimums, or both) by cycle number. Evidence is also presented to support the existence of an aperiodic variation in the periods as well as the amplitudes.
Preliminary libration parameters are derived for the objects found in 1980 at the triangular libration points of Tethys. The parameters are obtained from an orbit analysis of ground-based and Voyager I data obtained in 1980 for the separation from Saturn along the ring major axis, the projected separations from the Tethys L4 and L5 points and the separations from Tethys in orbital longitude. The best fitting libration parameters indicate a small (approximately 2 deg) libration amplitude for the L4 body. Data for the object at the L5 point may be fit either by orbits with libration amplitudes greater than 50 deg, or with small libration amplitudes, which are in agreement with recent Voyager II observations.
A predictive model of spray combustion must incorporate models for the wide variety of physical environments in a practical combustor. In regions where droplets are closely spaced, combustion resembles a diffusion flame; where they are well separated, an envelope or wake flame results. The relative velocity field between the fuel droplets and oxidizer in influences boundary layer development about the droplet, recirculating flow patterns, and droplet shape and stability. A model must encompass these interacting temporal and spatial effects as well as complicated combustor boundaries. The objective of the current work is to develop the triangular gridding method for describing the individual and collective properties of vaporizing and burning fuel droplets.
A trajectory forecast procedure is developed which uses geopotential tendency fields obtained from a simple, multiple layer, potential vorticity conservative isentropic model. This model can objectively account for short-term advective changes in the mass field when combined with fine-scale initial analyses. This procedure for producing short-term, upper-tropospheric trajectory forecasts employs a combination of a detailed objective analysis technique, an efficient mass advection model, and a diagnostically proven trajectory algorithm, none of which require extensive computer resources. Results of initial tests are presented, which indicate an exceptionally good agreement for trajectory paths entering the jet stream and passing through an intensifying trough. It is concluded that this technique not only has potential for aiding in route determination, fuel use estimation, and clear air turbulence detection, but also provides an example of the types of short range forecasting procedures which can be applied at local forecast centers using simple algorithms and a minimum of computer resources.
A Lagrange multiplier method using techniques developed by Bertsekas (1982) was applied to solving the problem of enforcing simultaneous conservation of the nonlinear integral invariants of the shallow water equations on a limited area domain. This application of nonlinear constrained optimization is of the large dimensional type and the conjugate gradient method was found to be the only computationally viable method for the unconstrained minimization. Several conjugate-gradient codes were tested and compared for increasing accuracy requirements. Robustness and computational efficiency were the principal criteria.
In a Kuroshio tracking experiment initiated in February 1977, two satellite-reporting buoys, drogued to 100-m depth, were released southeast of Kuyshu Island, Japan. These drifters crossed the Shatskiy Rise in the Kuroshio extension during May and October and then traversed the Emperor Seamount Chain. Although they reached the chain 117 days apart, their movements near the seamounts display remarkably similar patterns, demonstrating upstream meanders in the surface flow; cyclonic eddy activity immediately west of the chain; passage through the same gap associated with the Jingu and Nintoku seamounts; and a wavelike pattern present over the Hess Rise east of the chain. One drifter exhibited cyclonic eddy motion east of the chain in the lee of the Kinmei Seamount.
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Grid restructuring algorithms which lower the price of three-dimensional Free-Lagrange calculations are presented. The algorithms are first given for the case of planar triangulated surfaces embedded in and spanning a three-dimensional region. The tetrahedra generated by this technique form a Delaunay mesh if the interplane spacing is comparable to the resolution within the planes. The algorithm can therefore be used for efficient determinations of Voronoi connections for initial grids. Modifications of the algorithm for the case of closely spaced surfaces are demonstrated in the context of restructuring algorithms which can accommodate colliding surfaces. Then, the restriction to planar surfaces is removed and regular surfaces are examined. The basic algorithm is the same, with an additional operation to project the vertices of one surface onto another. Finally, vertices on the surface are allowed to migrate anywhere in space.
Pressure and temperature data from eight superpressure balloon flights at 26 km in the southern hemisphere stratosphere are analyzed. The balloons, which float on a constant density surface, travel steadily westward during summer and eastward during winter, as expected from local climatology. Two types of fluctuations are observed: neutral buoyancy oscillations (NBO) of around 4 min, and 0.1- to 1-hour oscillations that are characterized as small-amplitude density surface fluctuations. Lapse rates and densities are calculated and found to agree well with the expected values. Examples of wave damping and simultaneous fluctuation at two nearby balloons are presented. Spectral analysis is performed clearly showing the NBO and that the majority of the power is in the mesoscale range. Spectral slopes of power versus frequency are measured to be on the average -2.18 + or - 0.24 for pressure and -1.72 + or - 0.24 for temperature. These slopes are compared to the predictions of turbulence theories and the theory of a universal gravity wave spectrum.
A flow visualization study using selective dye injection and frame by frame analysis of a movie provided qualitative and quantitative data on the motion of marked fluid particles in a 60 degree artery branch model for simulation of physiological femoral artery flow. Physical flow features observed included jetting of the branch flow into the main lumen during the brief reverse flow period, flow separation along the main lumen wall during the near zero flow phase of diastole when the core flow was in the downstream direction, and inference of flow separation conditions along the wall opposite the branch later in systole at higher branch flow ratios. There were many similarities between dye particle motions in pulsatile flow and the comparative steady flow observations.
The flux of particles measured by sediment traps in the deep water of the Sargasso Sea and western tropical North Atlantic undergoes pronounced temporal variation. In the Sargasso Sea the variability is largely due to seasonal changes in mixed-layer depth and attendant changes in primary productivity affecting a wide region. By contrast, the variability in the western tropical Atlantic appears to be caused by patches of elevated nutrient and pigment concentrations which have their origin in the plumes of the Amazon and Orinoco rivers. Coastal zone color scanner scenes demonstrate the great seasonal and interannual differences in the direction and dispersal patterns of the plumes. The river plumes break up into irregular patches which may pass through the catchment area of a sediment trap at varying rates, thereby creating the impression of almost random temporal flux variability at a fixed trap site.
MMT observations of AC 211, the optical counterpart of the high-luminosity X-ray source in globular cluster M15, are presented. The observation of Naylor et al. (1988) that the He I absorption is blueshifted by more than 100 km/s with respect to the mean velocity of the cluster is confirmed. It is shown that if the absorption occurs in a stream of gas outflowing from the L2 point of a binary system, as might be expected for a common envelope binary, both the blueshift and the unexpectedly low velocity variations of the He I lines can be understood. The model predicts that the He I velocity curve is not sinusoidal.
A photochemical model consisting of 40 species and 107 reactions is integrated along 80-day air parcel trajectories calculated in the lower stratosphere for the springtime Antarctic. For the trajectory starting at 58 deg S, which may be regarded as outside the circumpolar vortex, only a small change in O3 occurs in the model. In contrast, for the air parcel starting in the vortex at 74 deg S, the O3 concentration is reduced by 93 percent during the 80 days from the beginning of August to late October. The model results for several species are compared with measurements from the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment and, in general, good agreement is obtained. In the model, the dentrification of the air parcels in polar stratospheric clouds increases the amount of chlorine present in active form. Heterogeneous reactions maintain high active chlorine which destroys O3 via the formation of the ClO dimer. Results of calculations with reduced concentrations of inorganic chlorine show considerably reduced O3 destruction rates and compare favorably with the behavior of total O3 since the late 1970s. The remaining major uncertainties in the photochemical aspects of the Antarctic ozone hole are highlighted.
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The existing implicit methods for the current initial value problems (IVPs) concerning particle-laden flows are complicated and iterative in nature. This paper presents a noniterative implicit method which can be used with pressure-based as well as with density-based algorithms. The method is illustrated by analyzing a dilute dispersion of noninteracting solid particles in an isothermal flow in a passage bounded by one straight wall and one wavy wall, in which all particles are spherical and have a finite velociy relative to the continuum phase at the inflow boundary.
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