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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Heat flow increase following the rise of mantle isotherms and crustal thinning

Heat flow measurements in the western United States define a zone of high heat flow which coincides with the Basin and Range Province where extension has taken place recently. In this region, the average reduced heat flow is approx 30 mW sq. meters higher than in stable continental provinces; locally (e.g., Battle Mountain High), the heat flow anomaly can be more than 100 mW/sq meters above average. Estimates of the amount of extension range between 30% and 100% for the past 30 Ma. In the Colorado Plateau, which has been uplifted without major tectonic deformation, the heat flow is only slightly above average. Analytical calculations show that an abrupt change in heat flow at the base of the lithosphere 30 Ma ago would not affect the surface significantly. Uplift would proceed at a slow rate. A thermal perturbation at the base of a 40 km thick crust, however, would reach the surface faster and, after 30 Ma, the increase in surface heat flow would be about 75% of the amplitude of the heat flow anomaly. The number of volcanic rocks in the Basin and Range suggests that magma intrusions may provide an effective heat transfer mechanism. It can be show that if the source of the intrusions is at the base of the lithosphere, the response time will be much longer than 30 Ma, and most ot the heat transferred from the asthenosphere will be absorbed in the lithosphere.

Mareschal, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Trends of Sr and Nd isotopes through time near the Japan Sea in northeastern Japan

Nd and Sr isotopic analyses were performed on selected volcanic rocks of 27-6 Ma age in the Green Tuff region of northeastern Japan, in adjacent areas, and in two ultramafic inclusions from Ichinomegata. The isotopic data plot generally along the region of the mantle array, and the volcanic rocks vary in epsilon(Nd) from -0.9 to 5.7, and in epsilon(Sr) from 14.1 to -16.3. It is found that the volcanic rocks are part of an evolutionary pattern over a time period of 27 Ma, and that the pattern goes from an initially enriched source to that of a very depleted source. A greater-than-15-Ma preopening stage, characterized by an enriched isotopic signature, and a less-than-15-Ma postopening stage, characterized by a depleted signature, are identified. It is suggested that the degree of continental crust involvement is high during the preopening stages of a back-arc basin when it is associated with a rifted continental mass.

Nohda, S.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Boundary effects on Marangoni-Rayleigh and morphological instabilities

Effects of boundaries (vertical sides) on the Marangoni-Rayleigh problem are reviewed. Spectral crowding and a dimensional singularity when Rayleigh effects are neglected are discussed. In the unbounded case, there is a unique Ma with unique eigenfunction for fixed Ra but infinite Ra for fixed Ma. These infinite values of Ra correspond to vertical cellular modes. In the bounded case, there is infinite Ma for a fixed Ra. The stress free side wall case gives double infinite of Ra for fixed Ma and wave number. Clearly, a dimensional singularity occurs for the Marangoni problem when the side walls go to infinity and a fixed Ra is considered. There is no direct analogy regarding this singularity in the morphological instability problem. Results on the behavior of Mac, Rac with boundary conditions also show only marginal connection to the morphological stability problem.

Narayanan, R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Late-Archaean crustal growth in the Lewisian Complex of Northwest Scotland: Diachroneity in magmatic accretion and implications for models of crustal growth

The Lewisian Complex of northwestern Scotland is an Archaean basement terrain that was reworked during the Proterozoic. Previous geochronological studies have established that the complex represents an entirely new crustal addition during late-Archaean times, and the difference between a Sm-Nd accretion date of 2920 + or - 50 Ma and a Pb/Pb metamorphic date of 2680 + or - 70 Ma was interpreted as indicating a crustal accretion-differentiation superevent (CADS) lasting 240 + or - 110 Ma. A combined Rb-Sr, Pb/Pb, and Sm-Nd isotopic study reported was applied to the Lewisian CADS to attempt to address the problem of whether this comprised a short regional scale magmatic accretion event followed approximately 200 Ma later by regional high-grade metamorphism, or a long period of episodic or semi-continuous magmatic accretion prior to high-grade metamorphism.

Whitehouse, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Ar-40 to Ar-39 ages of the large impact structures Kara and Manicouagan and their relevance to the Cretaceous-Tertiary and the Triassic-Jurassic boundary

Since the discovery of the Ir enrichment in Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary clays in 1980, the effects of a 10-km asteroid impacting on the Earth 65 Ma ago have been discussed as the possible reason for the mass extinction--including the extinction of the dinosaurs--at the end of the Cretaceous. But up to now no crater of this age that is large enough (ca. 200 km in diameter) has been found. One candidate is the Kara Crater in northern Siberia. Kolesnikov et al. determined a K-Ar isochron of 65.6 +/- 0.5 Ma, indistinguishable from the age of the K-T boundary and interpreted this as confirmation of earlier proposals that the Kara bolide would have been at least one of the K-T impactors. Koeberl et al. determined Ar-40 to Ar-39 ages ranging from 70 to 82 Ma and suggested an association to the Campanian-Maastrichtian boundary, another important extinction horizon 73 Ma ago. We dated four impact melts, KA2-306, KA2-305, SA1-302, and AN9-182. Results from the investigation are discussed.

Trieloff, M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Estimation of optimal Kalman filter gain from non-optimal filter residuals

This paper presents a novel method of estimating the optimal steady state Kalman filter gain of a linear discrete time-invariant system from a non-optimal Kalman filter residual sequence. The relation between the optimal residual sequence and a signal derived from the non-optimal residual sequence is described by a Moving Average (MA) model whose coefficients are expressed in terms of the state space parameters and the optimal steady state Kalman filter gain. In order to identify the MA model, a whitening filter of the derived signal, which corresponds to an AutoRegressive (AR) model of the signal, is first identified using the least-squares method. Then the inverse filter of the whitening filter, which corresponds to the MA model, is calculated. From the coefficients of the identified MA model, the optimal steady state Kalman filter gain can be obtained. Numerical example is provided to illustrate the feasibility of this approach.

Chen, Chung-Wen↗
NASA NTRS1993

Cenozoic crustal rotations in the Mojave Desert from paleomagnetic studies around Barstow, California

Paleomagnetic data from the Mojave Desert around Barstow, California, suggest 55 to 75 deg of clockwise rotation of this area in earliest Miocene time, followed by 23 deg of counterclockwise rotation in the Early Miocene, and no rotation after 18 Ma. Earliest Miocene clockwise rotation of the Barstow area is suggested by data from nine sites in the Oligocene-Miocene Lane Mountain Quartz Latite and Jackhammer Formation and may be related to oroclinal bending of the southern Sierra Nevada batholith. Data from 13 sites in the Early Miocene Pickhandle Formation indicate counterclockwise rotation, which coincides with Early Miocene E-NE - W-SW extension and detachment faulting in the Mojave Desert. These results suggest that Miocene extension in the Mojave Desert is related to similarly oriented extension in the Colorado River extensional corridor. Early Miocene to Pliocene rocks of the Andesite and Dacite of the Calico Mountains, Barstow Formation, Andesite of Murphy's Well, and Black Mountain Basalt show no evidence for significant rotation of the Barstow area after 18 Ma. Most other paleomagnetic data from elsewhere in the Mojave are consistent with a lack of significant post-18 Ma rotations, suggesting that post-10 Ma right-lateral faulting there has produced relatively little crustal rotation.

Valentine, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Exposure history of the lunar meteorite, Elephant Moraine 87521

We report the noble gas concentrations and the Al-26, Be-10, Cl-36, and Ca-41 activities of the Antarctic lunar meteorite Elephant Moraine 87521. Although the actual exposure history of the meteorite may have been more complex, the following model history accounts satisfactorily for the cosmogenic nuclide data: A first stage of lunar irradiation for about 1 Ma at a depth of 1-5 g/sq cm followed, not necessarily directly, by a second one for 26 Ma at about 565 g/sq cm; launch from the moon less than 0.1 Ma ago; and arrival on earth 15-50 ka ago. The small concentration of trapped gases shows that except for some material that may have been introduced at the moment of launch, EET 87521 spent less than 1 Ma at a lunar depth less than 1 g/sq cm. EET 87521 has a K/Ar age in the range 3.0-3.4 Ga, which is typical for lunar mare basalts.

Vogt, S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

An ancient inner lake in Maadim Vallis

The survey of Ma'adim Vallis and crater Gusev area by the new topographic Aeolis southeast map allows to document the hydrodynamics processes which occurred in the valley. The inner Ma'adim Vallis hypsometric and volume deposits analyses point out that Gusev impact was subsequent to the first incision of Ma'adim Vallis in the craterized upland. The study of the deposit distributions as revealed by the topography leads to reconstruct the chronology of three major events in the Aeolis Region : Ma'adim incision, Gusev impact, and Apollinaris Patera/flow interactions.

Cabrol, N. A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Geochemical evidences for two chondritic-like cometary or asteroidal impacts before and at the K/T boundary

A number of geological and palaeontological evidences support multiple impacts of cometary showers within a short time (approximately 1-3 Ma) and their connection with mass extinctions. Observations include clustered crater ages, stratigraphic horizons of impact ejecta closely spaced in time, and evidence for stepwise mass extinctions spanning intervals of 1-3 Ma. For the K/T boundary, three candidates, Popigai, Manson, and Yucatan, have been proposed as impact craters. Two distinct strata at the K/T boundary in western North America have been interpreted as evidence for two sequential impacts. If multiple impacts occurred within a time span of about 1 Ma then multiple Ir enrichments should be observed. DSDP Hole 577B on the Shatsky Plateau in the northern Pacific at K/T time is the first site. Samples contain approximately greater than 97 percent CaCO3, which exhibit clear chemical signals associated with asteroidal/cometary impact. Ir, Fe, and Cr data are presented. From the Th-normalized data, two satellite peaks below the major peak at 78 cm and 81 cm of 577B-1-4 are clearly shown. The major Ir peak (K/T boundary) is at 72 cm. Fe and Cr, from C1-like impactor ejecta fallout, also show two peaks at the same positions. For hole 738C on the southern Kerguelen Plateau, Ir values reach a peak concentration of 18 ppb in the clay layer at 96.0-96.2 cm in section 20R-5, and gradually tail off. In the sample 115 cm above the boundary, Ir concentrations have still not reached background levels. From the Ir peak downward to the lowermost sample analyzed at 102 cm, the Ir concentration is still as high as 1.7 ppb. From the Th-normalized data, we observe a small Ir/Th peak at 100-101 cm. Though this peak is within the error margin, the trend is clear. Fe and Cr exhibit the same pattern. The third case is Hole 690C on the Queen Maud Ridge. Again, the Ir/Th plot indicates the strong possibility of satellite peaks at approximately 52 cm. The main peak is at 39-40 cm. For the Stevns Klint K/T boundary layers, the stratification of trace elements appears threefold with peak concentrations in sublayers A1, A3, and B2 for different element groups, including Ir. C1 ratios for many siderophile elements found in combined layers III and IV, corresponding to layers A, B, C, and D, strongly support the impact hypothesis. Also, multiple Ir anomalies in the K/T section at Lattengebirge, Bavarian Alps are reported. Recent works on Ni-rich spinels and Ir at the K/T boundaries clearly establish cometary/asteroidal impacts at the K/T boundary. Lastly, cometary showers can explain the enhanced Ir contents over approximately a 1 Ma interval in Gubbio shales.

Liu, Y.-G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Tectonic resurfacing of Venus

Impact crater distributions and morphologies have traditionally played an important role in unraveling the geologic histories of terrestrial objects, and Venus has proved no exception. The key observations are: mean crater retention age about 500 Ma; apparently random spatial distribution; modest proportion (17 percent) of modified craters; and preferential association of modified craters with areas of low crater density. The simplest interpretation of these data alone is that Venus experienced global resurfacing (assumed to be largely volcanic) prior to 500 Ma, after which time resurfacing rates decreased dramatically. This scenario does not totally exclude present geological activity: some resurfacing and crater obliteration is occurring on part of the planet, but at rates much smaller than on Earth. An alternative endmember model holds that resurfacing is also spatially randomly distributed. Resurfacing of about 1 sq km/yr eliminates craters such that a typical portion of the surface has an age of 500 Ma, but actual ages range from zero to about 1000 Ma. Monte Carlo simulation indicates that the typical resurfacing 'patch' cannot exceed about 500 km in diameter without producing a crater distribution more heterogeneous than observed. Volcanic or tectonic processes within these patches must be locally intense to be able to obliterate craters completely and leave few modified. In this abstract, we describe how global geologic mapping may be used to test resurfacing hypotheses. We present preliminary evidence that the dominant mode of resurfacing on Venus is tectonism, not volcanism, and that this process must be ongoing today. Lastly, we outline a conceptual model in which to understand the relationship between global tectonics and crater distribution and preservation.

Malin, Michael C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Eruption history of the Tharsis shield volcanoes, Mars

The Tharsis Montes volcanoes and Olympus Mons are giant shield volcanoes. Although estimates of their average surface age have been made using crater counts, the length of time required to build the shields has not been considered. Crater counts for the volcanoes indicate the constructs are young; average ages are Amazonian to Hesperian. In relative terms; Arsia Mons is the oldest, Pavonis Mons intermediate, and Ascreaus Mons the youngest of the Tharsis Montes shield; Olympus Mons is the youngest of the group. Depending upon the calibration, absolute ages range from 730 Ma to 3100 Ma for Arsia Mons and 25 Ma to 100 Ma for Olympus Mons. These absolute chronologies are highly model dependent, and indicate only the time surficial volcanism ceased, not the time over which the volcano was built. The problem of estimating the time necessary to build the volcanoes can be attacked in two ways. First, eruption rates from terrestrial and extraterrestrial examples can be used to calculate the required period of time to build the shields. Second, some relation of eruptive activity between the volcanoes can be assumed, such as they all began at a speficic time or they were active sequentially, and calculate the eruptive rate. Volumes of the shield volcanoes were derived from topographic/volume data.

Plescia, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Analysis of the TDRS multiple access system for possible use as an attitude control system sensor

A member of the constellation of TDR satellites (TDRS) has experienced a failure of its prime earth sensor. Failure of the remaining earth sensor could result in the inability of the satellite to control its attitude and provide user services. Loss of the satellite would be a serious event. The multiple access (MA) antenna array on the TDRS has been proposed for use as a backup sensor for the attitude control system. This paper describes our analysis of the performance of the MA array as an interferometer used for accurate attitude determination. A least squares fit of a plane to the MA phase information appears to represent the TDRS body roll and pitch within about 0.1 deg. This is sufficient for SGL pointing and MA and SSA user services. Analytic improvements that include ionospheric correction may yield sufficient accuracy for KSA user services.

Blevins, Bruce Allyn↗
NASA NTRS1994

Theoretical, observational, and isotopic estimates of the lifetime of the solar nebula

There are a variety of isotopic data for meteorites which suggest that the protostellar nebula existed and was involved in making planetary materials for some 10(exp 7) yr or more. Many cosmochemists, however, advocate alternative interpretations of such data in order to comply with a perceived constraint, from theoretical considerations, that the nebula existed only for a much shorter time, usually stated as less than or = 10(exp 6) yr. In this paper, we review evidence relevant to solar nebula duration which is available through three different disciplines: theoretical modelling of star formation, isotopic data from meteorites, and astronomical observations of T Tauri stars. Theoretical models based on observations of present star-forming regions indicate that stars like the Sun form by dynamical gravitational collapse of dense cores of cold molecular clouds in the interstellar medium. The collapse to a star and disk occurs rapidly on a time scale of the order 10(exp 5) yr. Disks evolve by dissipating energy while redistributing angular momentum, but it is difficult to predict the rate of evolution, particularly for low mass (compared to the star) disks which nonetheless still contain enough material to account for the observed planetary system. There is no compelling evidence, from available theories of disk structure and evolution, that the solar nebula must have evolved rapidly and could not have persisted for more than 1 Ma. In considering chronologically relevant isotopic data for meteorites, we focus on three methodologies: absolute ages by U-Pb/Pb-Pb, and relative ages by short-lived radionuclides (especially Al-26) and by evolution of Sr-87/Sr-86. Two kinds of meteoritic materials-refractory inclusions such as CAIs and differentiated meteorites (eucrites and angrites) - appear to have experience potentially dateable nebular events. In both case, the most straightforward interpretations of the available data indicate nebular events spanning several Ma. We also consider alternative interpretations, particularly the hypothesis of radically heterogeneous distribution of Al-26, which would avoid these chronological interpretations. The principal impetus for such alternative interpretations seems to be precisely the obviation of the chronological interpretation (i.e., the presumption rather than the inference of a short (less than or = Ma) lifetime of the nebula). Astronomical observations of T Tauri stars indicate that the presence of dusty disks is a common if not universal feature, that the disks are massive enough to accomodate a planetary system such as ours, and that at least some persist for 10(exp 7) yr or more. The results are consistent with the time scales inferred from the meteorite isotopic data. They cannot be considered conclusive with regard to solar nebula time scales, however,in part because it is difficult to relate disk observations to processes that affect meteorites, and in part because the ages assigned for these stars could be wrong by a factor of several in either direction. We conclude that the balance of available evidence favors the view that the nebula existed and was active for at least several Ma. However, because the evidence is not definitive, it is important that the issue be perceived to be an open question, whose answer should be sought rather than presumed.

Podosek, Frank A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Constraints on hydrothermal heat flux through the oceanic lithosphere from global heat flow

A significant discrepancy exists between the heat flow measured at the seafloor and the higher values predicted by thermal models of the cooling lithosphere. This discrepancy is generally interpreted as indicating that the upper oceanic crust is cooled significantly by hydrothermal circulation. The magnitude of this heat flow discrepancy is the primary datum used to estimate the volume of hydrothermal flow, and the variation in the discrepancy with lithospheric age is the primary constraint on how the hydrothermal flux is divided between near-ridge and off-ridge environments. The resulting estimates are important for investigation of both the thermal structure of the lithosphere and the chemistry of the oceans. We reevaluate the magnitude and age variation of the discrepancy using a global heat flow data set substantially larger than in earlier studies, and the GDHI (Global Depth and Heat Flow) model that better predicts the heat flow. We estimate that of the predicted global oceanic heat flux of 32 x 10(exp 12) W, 34% (11 x 10(exp 12) W) occurs by hydrothermal flow. Approximately 30% of the hydrothermal heat flux occurs in crust younger than 1 Ma, so the majority of this flux is off-ridge. These hydrothermal heat flux estimates are upper bounds, because heat flow measurements require sediment at the site and so are made preferentially at topographic lows, where heat flow may be depressed. Because the water temperature for the near-ridge flow exceeds that for the off-ridge flow, the near-ridge water flow will be even a smaller fraction of the total water flow. As a result, in estimating fluxes from geochemical data, use of the high water temperatures appropriate for the ridge axis may significantly overestimate the heat flux for an assumed water flux or underestimate the water flux for an assumed heat flux. Our data also permit improved estimates of the 'sealing' age, defined as the age where the observed heat flow approximately equals that predicted, suggesting that hydrothermal heat transfer has largely ceased. Although earlier studies suggested major differences in sealing ages for different ocean basins, we find that the sealing ages for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans are similar and consistent with the sealing age for the entire data set, 65 +/- 10 Ma. The previous inference of a young (approximately 20 Ma) sealing age for the Pacific appears to have biased downward several previous estimates of the global hydrothermal flux. The heat flow data also provide indirect evidence for the mechanism by which the hydrothermal heat flux becomes small, which has often been ascribed to isolation of the igneous crust from seawater due to the hydraulic conductivity of the intervening sediment. We find, however, that even the least sedimented sites show the systematic increase of the ratio of observed to predicted heat flow with age, although the more sedimented sites have a younger sealing age. Moreover, the heat flow discrepancy persists at heavily sedimented sites until approximately 50 Ma. It thus appears that approximately 100-200 m of sediment is neither necessary nor sufficient to stop hydrothermal heat transfer. We therefore conclude that the age of the crust is the primary control on the fraction of heat transported by hydrothermal flow and that sediment thickness has a lesser effect. This inference is consistent with models in which hydrothermal flow decreases with age due to reduced crustal porosity and hence permeability.

Stein, Carol A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Theoretical, observational, and isotopic estimates of the lifetime of the solar nebula

There are a variety of isotopic data for meteorites which suggest that the protostellar nebula existed and was involved in making planetary materials for some 10(exp 7) yr or more. Many cosmochemists, however, advocate alternative interpretations of such data in order to comply with a perceived constraint, from theoretical considerations, that the nebula existed only for a much shorter time, usually stated as less than or equal to 10(exp 6) yr. In this paper, we review evidence relevant to solar nebula duration which is available through three different disciplines: theoretical modeling of star formation, isotopic data from meteorites, and astronomical observations of T Tauri stars. Theoretical models based on observations of present star-forming regions indicate that stars like the Sun form by dynamical gravitational collapse of dense cores of cold molcular clouds in the interstellar clouds in the interstellar medium. The collapse to a star and disk occurs rapidly, on a time scale of the order 10(exp 5) yr. Disks evolve by dissipating energy while redistributing angular momentum, but it is difficult to predict the rate of evolution, particularly for low mass (compared to the star) disks which nonetheless still contain enough material to account for the observed planetary system. There is no compelling evidence, from available theories of disk structure and evolution, that the solar nebula must have evolved rapidly and could not have persisted for more than 1 Ma. In considering chronoloically relevant isotopic data for meteorites, we focus on three methodologies: absolute ages by U-Pb/Pb-Pb, and relative ages by short-lived radionuclides (especially Al-26) and by evolution of Sr-87/Sr-86. Two kinds of meteoritic materials-refractory inclusions such as CAIs and differential meteorites (eucrites and augrites) -- appear to have experienced potentially dateable nebular events. In both cases, the most straightforward interpretations of the available data indicate nebular events spanning several Ma. We also consider alternative interpretations, particularly the hypothesis of radically heterogeneous distribution of Al-26, which would avoid these chronological interpretations. The principal impetus for such alternative interpretations seems to be precisely the obviation of the chronological interpretation (i.e., the presumption rather than the inference of a short (less than or equal to 1 Ma) lifetime of the nebula). Astronomical observations of T Tauri stars indicate that the presence of dusty disks is a common if not universal feature, that the disks are massive enough to accomodate a planetary system such as ours, and that at least some persist for 110(exp 7) yr or more. The results are consistent with the time scales inferred from the meteoritic isotopic data. They cannot be considered conclusive with regard to solar nebula time scales, however, in part because it is difficult to relate disk observations to processes that affect meteorites, and in part because the ages assigned for these stars could be wrong by a factor of several in either direction. We conclude that the balance of available evidence favors the view that the nebula existed and was active for at least several Ma. However, because the evidence is not definitive, it is important that the issue be perceived to be an open question, whose answer should be sought rather than presumed.

Podosek, Frank A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A componential model of human interaction with graphs: 1. Linear regression modeling

Task analyses served as the basis for developing the Mixed Arithmetic-Perceptual (MA-P) model, which proposes (1) that people interacting with common graphs to answer common questions apply a set of component processes-searching for indicators, encoding the value of indicators, performing arithmetic operations on the values, making spatial comparisons among indicators, and repsonding; and (2) that the type of graph and user's task determine the combination and order of the components applied (i.e., the processing steps). Two experiments investigated the prediction that response time will be linearly related to the number of processing steps according to the MA-P model. Subjects used line graphs, scatter plots, and stacked bar graphs to answer comparison questions and questions requiring arithmetic calculations. A one-parameter version of the model (with equal weights for all components) and a two-parameter version (with different weights for arithmetic and nonarithmetic processes) accounted for 76%-85% of individual subjects' variance in response time and 61%-68% of the variance taken across all subjects. The discussion addresses possible modifications in the MA-P model, alternative models, and design implications from the MA-P model.

Gillan, Douglas J.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Protecting Venus from Asteroids, Comets, and Meteors

It is well accepted that the dense, thick atmosphere of Venus prevents most small cosmic bodies from reaching the surface and forming craters. We have examined this atmospheric intervention in detail, incorporating the lessons learned from the extensive modeling of impactor deceleration and flattening motivated by the SL-9 impacts with Jupiter. We employ a "pancake" model, which best matches detailed code simulations of atmospheric energy deposition, and Schmidt-Holsapple crater scaling modified for complex (flattened) craters. We adopt the distributions of Venus-crossing asteroids and comets determined by E.M. Shoemaker and co-workers, as well as generalizations of these distributions. Our nominal simulation of the venusian crater record is shown below, calibrated to the total number of venusian craters (940). As nearly all craters on Venus are well-preserved and relatively uniformly distributed, such simulations constrain the age of the surface. The fit is reasonable, with a nominal crater retention age of approx. 700 Ma. The fit at the large-crater end is improved if the number of large asteroids is increased, which Shoemaker argues is in fact more representative of the long-term (over several 100 Ma) average, and if Halley-family comets are included. The ages we obtain under a variety of modeling choices that produce good fits (including using Shoemaker's preferred crater scaling) are approx. 700-900 Ma, substantially greater than the most widely cited age estimate in the literature (-300 Ma). The key difference is that we find very large depletions in the production of 20-30-km craters (see figure) compared with previous estimates, the size range at which atmospheric effects are often calibrated or assumed nearly negligible. As venusian global resurfacing recedes deeper into history, the likelihood that Venus is resting between bouts of activity diminishes. Venus, like Mars, may instead be dying or dead.

McKinnon, William B.↗