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At least 379 records · Page 21

Analysis of structural perturbations in systems via cost decomposition methods

It has long been common practice to analyze linear dynamic systems by decomposing the total response in terms of individual contributions which are easier to analyze. Examples of this philosophy include the expansion of transfer functions using: (1) the superposition principle, (2) residue theory and partial fraction expansions, (3) Markov parameters, Hankel matrices, and (4) regular and singular perturbations. This paper summarizes a new and different kind of expansion designed to decompose the norm of the response vector rather than the response vector itself. This is referred to as "cost-decomposition' of the system. The notable advantages of this type of decomposition are: (a) easy application to multi-input, multi-output systems, (b) natural compatibility with Linear Quadratic Gaussian Theory, (c) applicability to the analysis of more general types of structural perturbations involving inputs, outputs, states, parameters. Property (c) makes the method suitable for problems in model reduction, measurement/actuator selections, and sensitivity analysis.

Skelton, R. E.↗

Control of a heterogeneous two-server exponential queueing system

A dynamic control policy known as 'threshold queueing' is defined for scheduling customers from a Poisson source on a set of two exponential servers with dissimilar service rates. The slower server is invoked in response to instantaneous system loading as measured by the length of the queue of waiting customers. In a threshold queueing policy, a specific queue length is identified as a 'threshold,' beyond which the slower server is invoked. The slower server remains busy until it completes service on a customer and the queue length is less than its invocation threshold. Markov chain analysis is employed to analyze the performance of the threshold queueing policy and to develop optimality criteria. It is shown that probabilistic control is suboptimal to minimize the mean number of customers in the system. An approximation to the optimum policy is analyzed which is computationally simple and suffices for most operational applications.

Larsen, R. L.↗

Optimal inference with chaotic dynamics

Nonlinear mappings that exhibit chaotic, seemingly random, evolution have appeal as models of dynamic systems. Their deterministic evolution, vis-a-vis Markov evolutions, results in much simpler optimal detection and estimation algorithms. The variation of a chaotic parameter (mu) results in diverse evolutions, suggesting a simple but rich source of model variations. For the specific mapping examined, this latter possibility is problematic due to the extreme sensitivity on mu of the evolution in the chaotic regime.

Harger, R. O.↗

Development and analysis of the Software Implemented Fault-Tolerance (SIFT) computer

SIFT (Software Implemented Fault Tolerance) is an experimental, fault-tolerant computer system designed to meet the extreme reliability requirements for safety-critical functions in advanced aircraft. Errors are masked by performing a majority voting operation over the results of identical computations, and faulty processors are removed from service by reassigning computations to the nonfaulty processors. This scheme has been implemented in a special architecture using a set of standard Bendix BDX930 processors, augmented by a special asynchronous-broadcast communication interface that provides direct, processor to processor communication among all processors. Fault isolation is accomplished in hardware; all other fault-tolerance functions, together with scheduling and synchronization are implemented exclusively by executive system software. The system reliability is predicted by a Markov model. Mathematical consistency of the system software with respect to the reliability model has been partially verified, using recently developed tools for machine-aided proof of program correctness.

Goldberg, J.↗

Research on computer aided testing of pilot response to critical in-flight events

Experiments on pilot decision making are described. The development of models of pilot decision making in critical in flight events (CIFE) are emphasized. The following tests are reported on the development of: (1) a frame system representation describing how pilots use their knowledge in a fault diagnosis task; (2) assessment of script norms, distance measures, and Markov models developed from computer aided testing (CAT) data; and (3) performance ranking of subject data. It is demonstrated that interactive computer aided testing either by touch CRT's or personal computers is a useful research and training device for measuring pilot information management in diagnosing system failures in simulated flight situations. Performance is dictated by knowledge of aircraft sybsystems, initial pilot structuring of the failure symptoms and efficient testing of plausible causal hypotheses.

Giffin, W. C.↗

The reliability analysis of a separated, dual fail operational redundant strapdown IMU

A methodology for quantitatively analyzing the reliability of redundant avionics systems, in general, and the dual, separated Redundant Strapdown Inertial Measurement Unit (RSDIMU), in particular, is presented. The RSDIMU is described and a candidate failure detection and isolation system presented. A Markov reliability model is employed. The operational states of the system are defined and the single-step state transition diagrams discussed. Graphical results, showing the impact of major system parameters on the reliability of the RSDIMU system, are presented and discussed.

Motyka, P.↗

Reliability with imperfect diagnostics

A reliability estimation method for systems that continually accumulate faults because of imperfect diagnostics is developed and an application for redundant digital avionics is presented. The present method assumes that if a fault does not appear in a short period of time, it will remain hidden until a majority of components are faulty and the system fails. A certain proportion of a component's faults are detected in a short period of time, and a description of their detection is included in the reliability model. A Markov model of failure during flight for a nonreconfigurable five-plex is presented for a sequence of one-hour flights followed by maintenance.

White, A. L.↗

Design of the hybrid automated reliability predictor

The design of the Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP), now under development at Duke University, is presented. The HARP approach to reliability prediction is characterized by a decomposition of the overall model into fault-occurrence and fault-handling sub-models. The fault-occurrence model is a non-homogeneous Markov chain which is solved analytically, while the fault-handling model is a Petri Net which is simulated. HARP provides automated analysis of sensitivity to uncertainties in the input parameters and in the initial state specifications. It then produces a predicted reliability band as a function of mission time, as well as estimates of the improvement (narrowing of the band) to be gained by a specified amount of reduction in uncertainty.

Geist, R.↗

A statistical model of the photomultiplier gain process with applications to optical pulse detection

A Markov diffusion model was used to determine an approximate probability density for the random gain. This approximate density preserves the correct second-order statistics and appears to be in reasonably good agreement with experimental data. The receiver operating curve for a pulse counter detector of PMT cathode emission events was analyzed using this density. The error performance of a simple binary direct detection optical communication system was also derived. Previously announced in STAR as N82-25100

Tan, H. H.↗

Spatial estimation from remotely sensed data via empirical Bayes models

Multichannel satellite image data, available as LANDSAT imagery, are recorded as a multivariate time series (four channels, multiple passovers) in two spatial dimensions. The application of parametric empirical Bayes theory to classification of, and estimating the probability of, each crop type at each of a large number of pixels is considered. This theory involves both the probability distribution of imagery data, conditional on crop types, and the prior spatial distribution of crop types. For the latter Markov models indexed by estimable parameters are used. A broad outline of the general theory reveals several questions for further research. Some detailed results are given for the special case of two crop types when only a line transect is analyzed. Finally, the estimation of an underlying continuous process on the lattice is discussed which would be applicable to such quantities as crop yield.

Hill, J. R.↗

Data and results of a laboratory investigation of microprocessor upset caused by simulated lightning-induced analog transients

Advanced composite aircraft designs include fault-tolerant computer-based digital control systems with thigh reliability requirements for adverse as well as optimum operating environments. Since aircraft penetrate intense electromagnetic fields during thunderstorms, onboard computer systems maya be subjected to field-induced transient voltages and currents resulting in functional error modes which are collectively referred to as digital system upset. A methodology was developed for assessing the upset susceptibility of a computer system onboard an aircraft flying through a lightning environment. Upset error modes in a general-purpose microprocessor were studied via tests which involved the random input of analog transients which model lightning-induced signals onto interface lines of an 8080-based microcomputer from which upset error data were recorded. The application of Markov modeling to upset susceptibility estimation is discussed and a stochastic model development.

Belcastro, C. M.↗

Vector computer memory bank contention

A number of vector supercomputers feature very large memories. Unfortunately the large capacity memory chips that are used in these computers are much slower than the fast central processing unit (CPU) circuitry. As a result, memory bank reservation times (in CPU ticks) are much longer than on previous generations of computers. A consequence of these long reservation times is that memory bank contention is sharply increased, resulting in significantly lowered performance rates. The phenomenon of memory bank contention in vector computers is analyzed using both a Markov chain model and a Monte Carlo simulation program. The results of this analysis indicate that future generations of supercomputers must either employ much faster memory chips or else feature very large numbers of independent memory banks.

Bailey, D. H.↗

Reliability bounds for fault-tolerant systems with competing responses to component failures

Bounds are established on the probability of system failure for fault-tolerant systems of the type used, for example, in aviation control. Event series leading to system failure are assumed to follow a semi-Markov model in which the potential sojourn times associated with component failures have exponential distributions and those associated with system responses have distributions with unspecified form. A product form of the bounds is derived by using a model that provides for multiple competing system responses to component failures.

Lee, L. D.↗

A Residuals Approach to Filtering, Smoothing and Identification for Static Distributed Systems

An approach for state estimation and identification of spatially distributed parameters embedded in static distributed (elliptic) system models is advanced. The method of maximum likelihood is used to find parameter values that maximize a likelihood functional for the system model, or equivalently, that minimize the negative logarithm of this functional. To find the minimum, a Newton-Raphson search is conducted that from an initial estimate generates a convergent sequence of parameter estimates. For simplicity, a Gauss-Markov approach is used to approximate the Hessian in terms of products of first derivatives. The gradient and approximate Hessian are computed by first arranging the negative log likelihood functional into a form based on the square root factorization of the predicted covariance of the measurement process. The resulting data processing approach, referred to here by the new term of predicted data covariance square root filtering, makes the gradient and approximate Hessian calculations very simple. A closely related set of state estimates is also produced by the maximum likelihood method: smoothed estimates that are optimal in a conditional mean sense and filtered estimates that emerge from the predicted data covariance square root filter.

Rodriguez, G.↗

An error-dependent model of instrument-scanning behavior in commercial airline pilots

A new flexible model of pilot instrument scanning behavior is presented which assumes that the pilot uses a set of deterministic scanning patterns on the pilot's perception of error in the state of the aircraft, and the pilot's knowledge of the interactive nature of the aircraft's systems. Statistical analyses revealed that a three stage Markov process composed of the pilot's three predicted lookpoints (LP), occurring 1/30, 2/30, and 3/30 of a second prior to each LP, accurately modelled the scanning behavior of 14 commercial airline pilots while flying steep turn maneuvers in a Boeing 737 flight simulator. The modelled scanning data for each pilot were not statistically different from the observed scanning data in comparisons of mean dwell time, entropy, and entropy rate. These findings represent the first direct evidence that pilots are using deterministic scanning patterns during instrument flight. The results are interpreted as direct support for the error dependent model and suggestions are made for further research that could allow for identification of the specific scanning patterns suggested by the model.

Jones, D. H.↗

Flight critical system design guidelines and validation methods

Efforts being expended at NASA-Langley to define a validation methodology, techniques for comparing advanced systems concepts, and design guidelines for characterizing fault tolerant digital avionics are described with an emphasis on the capabilities of AIRLAB, an environmentally controlled laboratory. AIRLAB has VAX 11/750 and 11/780 computers with an aggregate of 22 Mb memory and over 650 Mb storage, interconnected at 256 kbaud. An additional computer is programmed to emulate digital devices. Ongoing work is easily accessed at user stations by either chronological or key word indexing. The CARE III program aids in analyzing the capabilities of test systems to recover from faults. An additional code, the semi-Markov unreliability program (SURE) generates upper and lower reliability bounds. The AIRLAB facility is mainly dedicated to research on designs of digital flight-critical systems which must have acceptable reliability before incorporation into aircraft control systems. The digital systems would be too costly to submit to a full battery of flight tests and must be initially examined with the AIRLAB simulation capabilities.

Holt, H. M.↗

Optimal maintenance center inventories for fault-tolerant repairable systems

A probabilistic approach is taken to determine the optimal repairable parts inventory for a maintenance center, servicing machines which contain several m-out-of-n systems of different parts, with a constraint on the total inventory investment. A model, based on the discrete Markov process, accounts for a typical ultrareliable avionics system, such as one presently being developed by NASA. The dynamic programming algorithm for minimizing the stockout and holding costs is applied to an exemplary maintenance center, and solutions for single-item and multi-item cases are given. The computational burden is noted to be reasonable and a computer program is used to generate optimal solutions.

Lawrence, S. H.↗

The conservativeness of reliability estimates based on instantaneous coverage

Reliability modeling must take into account two different types of phenomena, including the fault-occurrence behavior and the fault/error-handling behavior of a system. The effectiveness of the fault/error-handling behavior can be captured by instantaneous coverage probabilities. This paper has the objective to show that the assumption of instantaneous coverage leads to conservative predictions of system reliability for systems characterized by relatively long interevent times for fault occurrences and relatively short interevent times for fault/error-handling actions. The importance of this result is related to the fact that it can now be shown that model predictions based on instantaneous coverage are lower bounds on the true system reliability. Attention is given to a semi-Markov reliability model, instantaneous coverage approximations, the proof of conservative prediction, and the computation of coverage probabilities.

Mcgough, J.↗