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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Unique impacts of strong and westward-extended western Pacific subtropical high on ozone pollution over eastern China

As a subtropical anticyclonic high-pressure system that typically forms over the northwestern Pacific Ocean in summer, the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) affects meteorological conditions and ozone pollution in China. The relationship between maximum daily 8-h average ozone (MDA8 O 3 ) concentrations and the extremely strong and westward-extended WPSH occurred in 2022 is investigated using observations, reanalysis data and GEOS-Chem model simulations. The intensity of WPSH has a significant positive correlation with MDA8 O3 over southern China during July-August in 2022, with a correlation coefficient of +0.44, but the correlation is negative (–0.40) in northern China. During the strong WPSH days, MDA8 O 3 increased by 16.5µgm -3 (16.4% relative to July-August average) over southern China and decreased by 19.0µgm -3 (14.5%) in northern China compared to the weak WPSH days. The unique dipole pattern in the relationship between ozone levels and the WPSH in 2022 exhibited a contrast to that during 2015–2021. The difference is primarily due to the extremely strong WPSH intensity and its unusual westward expansion in 2022. In this case, an anomalous anticyclone at 500 hPa dominates over southern China, which creates conditions conducive for ozone formation and accumulation. The anticyclone weakened horizontal winds and reduced the dispersion of ozone, alongside a high temperature and low relative humidity, which favored the chemical production of ozone. In contrast, abnormal northerly winds enhanced ozone diffusion in northern China and the low temperature reduced ozone chemical production. Here, this study reveals the mechanism for the significant impact of strong and westward-extended WPSH on ozone concentrations over China, emphasizing the role of the WPSH location in modulating meteorology and ozone levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

CHUWD-H v1.0: a comprehensive historical hourly weather database for U.S. urban energy system modeling

Reliable and continuous meteorological data are crucial for modeling the responses of energy systems and their components to weather and climate conditions, particularly in densely populated urban areas. However, existing long-term datasets often suffer from spatial and temporal gaps and inconsistencies, posing great challenges for detailed urban energy system modeling and cross-city comparison under realistic weather conditions. Here we introduce the Historical Comprehensive Hourly Urban Weather Database (CHUWD-H) v1.0, a 23-year (1998-2020) gap-free and quality-controlled hourly weather dataset covering 550 weather station locations across all urban areas in the contiguous United States. CHUWD-H v1.0 synthesizes hourly weather observations from stations with outputs from a physics-based solar radiation model and a reanalysis dataset through a multi-step gap filling approach. A 10-fold Monte Carlo cross-validation suggests that the accuracy of this gap filling approach surpasses that of conventional gap filling methods. Designed primarily for urban energy system modeling, CHUWD-H v1.0 should also support historical urban meteorological and climate studies, including the validation and evaluation of urban climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Monsoonal MCS Initiation, Rainfall, and Diurnal Gravity Waves over the Bay of Bengal: Observation and a Linear Model

Abstract Previous observational studies have indicated that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute the majority of precipitation over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the summer monsoon season, yet their initiation and propagation remain incompletely understood. To fill this knowledge gap, we conducted a comprehensive study using a combination of 20-yr satellite observations, MCS tracking, reanalysis data, and a theoretical linear model. Satellite observations reveal clear diurnal propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall from the west coast of the BoB toward the central BoB, with the MCS rainfall propagating slightly slower than the MCS initiation frequency. Global reanalysis data indicate a strong association between the offshore-propagating MCS initiation frequency/rainfall and diurnal low-level wind perturbations, implying the potential role of gravity waves. To verify the hypothesis, we developed a 2D linear model that can be driven by realistic meteorological fields from reanalysis. The linear model realistically reproduces the characteristics of offshore-propagating diurnal wind perturbations. The wind perturbations, as well as the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall, are associated with diurnal gravity waves emitted from the coastal regions, which in turn are caused by the diurnal land–sea thermal contrast. The ambient wind speed and vertical wind shear play crucial roles in modulating the timing, propagation, and amplitude of diurnal gravity waves. Using the linear model and satellite observations, we further show that the stronger monsoonal flows lead to faster offshore propagation of diurnal gravity waves, which subsequently control the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation and rainfall. Significance Statement Rainfall over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is primarily contributed by large and organized rainfall systems in the summer monsoon season. During this season, these systems are commonly observed over the east coast of India around midnight, the western BoB in the morning, and the central BoB in the afternoon. This eastward rainfall propagation is confirmed by observations, reanalysis data, and a theoretical model to have a strong association with atmospheric diurnal gravity waves. These waves are caused by land–sea thermal contrast and can trigger rainfall systems over the offshore regions. We also found that the diurnal gravity waves, as well as their triggered rainfall systems, can be greatly modulated by the large-scale monsoonal flows. All the above findings improve our understanding of diurnal rainfall cycle over the BoB and may contribute to the future improvement of rainfall forecast over the region.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Project 57 Air Monitoring Report: January 1 through September 30, 2020, with a Review of the Period of Record Radionuclide Analyses

The DOE Environmental Management Nevada Program (EM NV) identified the Project 57 contaminated area as Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 415, Project 57 No. 1 Plutonium Dispersion Site, which consisted of one Corrective Action Site (CAS): NAFR-23- 02, Pu Contaminated Soil (U.S. DOE, 2014). The CAS included several Project 57 operational facilities in addition to the plutonium-contaminated soil. With approval of the State of Nevada Division of Environmental Protection, the DOE closed the Project 57 surface soil contamination site in October 2020. Closure was accomplished by installing a clean soil cap constructed over ground zero and the surrounding areas of the CA that may be entrained with wind-transported soil particles. After completion of the ground zero cap in October 2020, DRI discontinued monitoring of meteorological and associated environmental conditions at the Project 57 site as directed by DOE EM NV. Navarro dismantled air monitoring stations P57-3 and P57-4 and removed the equipment on October 20, 2020. This report presents the meteorological and dust observations and radiological analyses accomplished during the approximately 10 months when the air monitoring data collection equipment was operational during CY2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Savannah River Site Climatology for Research Activities Conducted Onsite and in P-Area (1994-2023)

This report presents a climatology of meteorological variables at the Savannah River Site (SRS) using measurements from the P-Area and Central Climatology meteorological towers to support research activities at the Savannah River Site. Key values included in this report are wind, surface pressure, temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture, cloud fraction, cloud base, lightning, atmospheric stability, and boundary layer parameters. The Central Climatology tower is useful in that it is instrumented at four levels, allowing for an examination of height dependence on some variables.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Savannah River Site Climatology for Research Activities Conducted Onsite and in P-Area (1994-2023)

Executive Summary This report presents a climatology of meteorological variables at the Savannah River Site (SRS) using measurements from the P-Area and Central Climatology meteorological towers to support research activities at the Savannah River Site. Key values included in this report are wind, surface pressure, temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture, cloud fraction, cloud base, lightning, atmospheric stability, and boundary layer parameters. The Central Climatology tower is useful in that it is instrumented at four levels, allowing for an examination of height dependence on some variables.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurement report: Properties of aerosol and gases in the vertical profile during the LAPSE-RATE campaign

Abstract. Unmanned aerial systems (UASs) are increasingly being used as observation platforms for atmospheric applications. The Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation – a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) in Alamosa, Colorado, USA, on 14–20 July 2018 investigated and validated different UASs, measurement sensors and setup configurations. Flight teams from the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and Kansas State University (KSU) participated in LAPSE-RATE to measure and investigate properties of aerosol particles and gases in the lower atmosphere. During the experiment, the performance of different UAS configurations were investigated and confirmed to operate reliably, resulting in a scientifically sound observational dataset. As an example, concentration of aerosols – including two new particle formation events, CO2 and water vapor, and meteorological parameters in the atmospheric vertical profile were measured during the short experiment. Such observations characterizing atmospheric phenomena of this specific environment would have not been possible in any other way and, thus, demonstrate the power of UASs as new, promising tools in atmospheric and environmental research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observing low-altitude features in ozone concentrations in a shoreline environment via uncrewed aerial systems

Abstract. Ozone is a pollutant formed in the atmosphere by photochemical processes involving nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) when exposed to sunlight. Tropospheric boundary layer ozone is regularly measured at ground stations and sampled infrequently through balloon, lidar, and crewed aircraft platforms, which have demonstrated characteristic patterns with altitude. Here, to better resolve vertical profiles of ozone within the atmospheric boundary layer, we developed and evaluated an uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) platform for measuring ozone and meteorological parameters of temperature, pressure, and humidity. To evaluate this approach, a UAS was flown with a portable ozone monitor and a meteorological temperature and humidity sensor to compare to tall tower measurements in northern Wisconsin. In June 2020, as a part of the WiscoDISCO20 campaign, a DJI M600 hexacopter UAS was flown with the same sensors to measure Lake Michigan shoreline ozone concentrations. This latter UAS experiment revealed a low-altitude structure in ozone concentrations in a shoreline environment showing the highest ozone at altitudes from 20–100 m a.g.l. These first such measurements of low-altitude ozone via a UAS in the Great Lakes region revealed a very shallow layer of ozone-rich air lying above the surface.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Special Observing Period (SOP) data for the Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP)

The rapid changes occurring in the polar regions require an improved understanding of the processes that are driving these changes. At the same time, increased human activities such as marine navigation, resource exploitation, aviation, commercial fishing, and tourism require reliable and relevant weather information. One of the primary goals of the World Meteorological Organization's Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) project is to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at high latitudes. During YOPP, two Canadian “supersites” were commissioned and equipped with new ground-based instruments for enhanced meteorological and system process observations. Additional pre-existing supersites in Canada, the United States, Norway, Finland, and Russia also provided data from ongoing long-term observing programs. These supersites collected a wealth of observations that are well suited to address YOPP objectives. In order to increase data useability and station interoperability, novel Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) were created for the seven supersites over two Special Observing Periods (February to March 2018 and July to September 2018). All observations collected at the supersites were compiled into this standardized NetCDF MODF format, simplifying the process of conducting pan-Arctic NWP verification and process evaluation studies. This paper describes the seven Arctic YOPP supersites, their instrumentation, data collection and processing methods, the novel MODF format, and examples of the observations contained therein. MODFs comprise the observational contribution to the model intercomparison effort, termed YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP). All YOPPsiteMIP MODFs are publicly accessible via the YOPP Data Portal (Whitehorse: https://doi.org/10.21343/a33e-j150, Huang et al., 2023a; Iqaluit: https://doi.org/10.21343/yrnf-ck57, Huang et al., 2023b; Sodankylä: https://doi.org/10.21343/m16p-pq17, O'Connor, 2023; Utqiagvik: https://doi.org/10.21343/a2dx-nq55, Akish and Morris, 2023c; Tiksi: https://doi.org/10.21343/5bwn-w881, Akish and Morris, 2023b; Ny-Ålesund: https://doi.org/10.21343/y89m-6393, Holt, 2023; and Eureka: https://doi.org/10.21343/r85j-tc61, Akish and Morris, 2023a), which is hosted by MET Norway, with corresponding output from NWP models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

VENTSAR V3.0: A Python GUI for Estimating Contaminant Concentrations on or Near Buildings Due to Building Effects and Plume Rise and For Calculating Inhalation and Plume Shine Doses

VENTSAR: Originated as VENTAX (Smith and Weber 1983) on the IBM Mainframe at the Savannah River Site (SRS) as a Fortran program. Updated to VENTSAR XL V1.0 (Simpkins 1997) as a spreadsheet version using macros created in Microsoft Excel. Later updated to VENTSAR XL V2.0 (Dixon 2018) as a spreadsheet executing a modified version of the original VENTAX Fortran code. Estimates contaminant concentrations on or near a building from a release at a nearby location. Calculates concentrations for a given meteorological exceedance probability or for a given stability and wind speed combination. Can model a single building with or without a penthouse on top or a ground location from either a stack or ground release. Plume rise can be considered. Contaminant releases can be chemical or radioactive with downwind concentrations determined at user-specified distances. Wind passing over and around buildings creates a complicated dispersion pattern. Air-intake vents may be located on building roofs or near the ground downwind of a release source. An estimation of pollutant concentrations on or near a structure is important in determining expected pollutant levels. Meteorological data are selected based on a specific area of the site. Fortran-based VENTAX able to make fast, complex mathematical calculations. Not user-friendly VENTSAR XL V1.0 no longer supported due to obsolete Excel macros. VENTSAR XL V2.0 an interim solution using an Excel spreadsheet to interface with the modified VENTAX Fortran code. Requires user to have Microsoft Excel. Not an intuitive interface for someone unfamiliar with VENTSAR. Does not perform dose calculations. VENTSAR V3.0 goal to combine the strengths of previous versions of VENTSAR into a single, powerful yet user-friendly program with a Graphical User Interface (GUI). Not dependent upon a specific program or plug-ins. Self-contained package to be used on any computer running Microsoft Windows. User-friendly, intuitive GUI created in Python for parameter input. Executes same modified VENTAX Fortran code as VENTSAR XL V2.0. Outputs formatted text file of completed calculations for easy review and dissemination. Performs inhalation and plume shine dose calculations for up to 11 user-selected nuclides from a nuclide dose factor library of almost 500 nuclides. 12 test cases were created for verification of V1.0 and V2.0. Same test cases run in V3.0 to verify correct performance. V3.0 produced similar results to V1.0. Confirmed GUI did not alter calculations in any way. Comparisons of the test case results confirm the V3.0 GUI does not influence the VENTSAR calculations. Simply passes same input parameters to VENTAX Fortran code for execution. Provides end user an easy-to-use, intuitive tool to quickly make building effect and plume rise calculations, as well as, inhalation and plume shine dose calculations. No experience with or working knowledge of Fortran, Excel, command line, or macros required. Self-contained package allows VENTSAR be deployed to any Windows computer without the need for specific programs or plug-ins.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Studying Aerosol, Clouds, and Air Quality in the Coastal Urban Environment of Southeastern Texas

A multi-agency succession of field campaigns was conducted in southeastern Texas during July 2021 through October 2022 to study the complex interactions of aerosols, clouds and air pollution in the coastal urban environment. As part of the Tracking Aerosol Convection interactions Experiment (TRACER), the TRACER- Air Quality (TAQ) campaign the Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) and the Convective Cloud Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (CUBE), a combination of ground-based supersites and mobile laboratories, shipborne measurements and aircraft-based instrumentation were deployed. These diverse platforms collected high-resolution data to characterize the aerosol microphysics and chemistry, cloud and precipitation micro- and macro-physical properties, environmental thermodynamics and air quality-relevant constituents that are being used in follow-on analysis and modeling activities. We present the overall deployment setups, a summary of the campaign conditions and a sampling of early research results related to: (a) aerosol precursors in the urban environment, (b) influences of local meteorology on air pollution, (c) detailed observations of the sea breeze circulation, (d) retrieved supersaturation in convective updrafts, (e) characterizing the convective updraft lifecycle, (f) variability in lightning characteristics of convective storms and (g) urban influences on surface energy fluxes. The work concludes with discussion of future research activities highlighted by the TRACER model-intercomparison project to explore the representation of aerosol-convective interactions in high-resolution simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Nonstationary and Non-Gaussian Moving Average Model for Solar Irradiance

Historically, power has flowed from large power plants to customers. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources such as solar power from rooftop photovoltaic has made the distribution network a two-way-street with power being generated at the customer level. The incorporation of renewables introduces additional uncertainty and variability into the power grid. Distribution network operation studies are being adapted to include renewables; however, such studies require high quality solar irradiance data that adequately reflect realistic meteorological variability. Data from satellite-based products are spatially complete, but temporally coarse, whereas solar irradiances exhibit high frequency variation at very fine timescales. We propose a new stochastic method for temporally downscaling global horizontal irradiance (GHI) to 1 min resolution, but we do not consider the spatial aspect due to limited availability of the in situ irradiance measurements. Solar irradiance's first and second-order structures vary diurnally and seasonally, and our model adapts to such nonstationarity. Empirical irradiance data exhibits highly non-Gaussian behavior; we develop a nonstationary and non-Gaussian moving average model that is shown to capture realistic solar variability at multiple timescales. We also propose a new estimation scheme based on Cholesky factors of empirical autocovariance matrices, bypassing difficult and inaccessible likelihood-based approaches. The model is demonstrated for a case study of three locations that are located in diverse climates through the United States. The model is compared against competitors from the literature and is shown to provide better uncertainty and variability quantification on testing data.

Cholesky factor↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mesoscale evaluation of AMPS using AWARE radar observations of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica

Surface, upper-air, and radar observations are used to assess the performance of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) in simulating the mesoscale aspects of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica that spanned January 16–20, 2016. The observations, collected during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), provide a unique dataset for evaluating AMPS, especially the radar observations that facilitate a three-dimensional depiction of winds and precipitation. Comparisons of AMPS forecast data with surface meteorology, balloon-sounding, and profiling radar observations at and above sites near McMurdo Station reveal a mixture of similarities and differences. A generally southerly flow is evident at low levels in both the AMPS simulations and observed Doppler radial velocities. AMPS winds are comparable to those observed at the surface and aloft in terms of magnitude, direction, and timing but the strongest simulated southerly flow is displaced eastward relative to the observations. AMPS-simulated reflectivity over the broader Ross Island region is more limited in areal extent and smaller in magnitude than observed by a scanning Doppler radar. Three episodes of surface precipitation are observed near McMurdo Station over the five-day event with peak rates of ~3 mm h -1 and a total accumulation of ~22 mm. However, AMPS produces no surface precipitation at that location over the five-day event due to a low-level dry bias in the forecasts. Herein, the results show the first observationally based three-dimensional understanding of meteorology in the Ross Island region.

AMPS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Formulation, Implementation and Validation of a 1D Boundary Layer Inflow Scheme for the QUIC Modeling System

Recent studies have highlighted the importance of accurate meteorological conditions for urban transport and dispersion calculations. In this work, we present a novel scheme to compute the meteorological input in the Quick Urban & Industrial Complex () diagnostic urban wind solver to improve the characterization of upstream wind veer and shear in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL). The new formulation is based on a coupled set of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) derived from the Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations, and is fast to compute. Building upon recent progress in modeling the idealized ABL, we include effects from surface roughness, turbulent stress, Coriolis force, buoyancy and baroclinicity. We verify the performance of the new scheme with canonical Large Eddy Simulation (LES) tests with the GPU-accelerated FastEddy"Equation missing" solver in neutral, stable, unstable and baroclinic conditions with different surface roughness. Furthermore, we evaluate QUIC calculations with and without the new inflow scheme with real data from the Urban Threat Dispersion (UTD) field experiment, which includes Lidar-based wind measurements as well as concentration observations from multiple outdoor releases of a non-reactive tracer in downtown New York City. Compared to previous inflow capabilities that were limited to a constant wind direction with height, we show that the new scheme can model wind veer in the ABL and enhance the prediction of the surface cross-isobaric angle, improving evaluation statistics of simulated concentrations paired in time and space with UTD measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

Abstract The National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A tale of two towers: comparing NEON and AmeriFlux data streams at Bartlett Experimental Forest

Long-term ecological data are essential for detecting impacts of climate change and other global change factors, and for making informed predictions about future change. However, long-term measurements are rarely replicated at the site level, which raises questions about their representativeness. We used a multiscale approach to evaluate the agreement of parallel observations from AmeriFlux and NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network) towers at Bartlett Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. The two towers are separated by a horizontal distance of 93 m. Here, we focused our analysis on standard meteorological variables; fluxes of CO 2 , sensible heat, and latent heat measured by eddy covariance; and phenology derived from PhenoCam imagery. Results suggest excellent agreement between AmeriFlux and NEON in meteorology and phenology, and good agreement in fluxes at the half-hourly scale. However, large disagreements in CO 2 and latent heat fluxes occurred at the annual scale, with implications especially for the forest carbon balance. The AmeriFlux tower measurements indicate a site that is close to carbon-neutral (-8 ± 65 g C m -2 y -1 , mean ± 1 SD), whereas the NEON tower measurements indicate a forest that is a carbon sink (-137 ± 10 g C m -2 y -1 ). Causes of this disagreement may include measurement height (26 m vs. 35 m), which resulted in different flux footprints being measured by the two towers, and differences in the flux measurement systems. Our results suggest the need for caution when attempting to merge long-term flux data from two different measurement platforms, and when using measurements from any one measurement platform to inform decision-making on issues related to carbon accounting or natural climate solutions.

Carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of soiling on Si and CdTe PV modules: Case study in different Brazil climate zones

Soiling, particulate accumulation on photovoltaic (PV) module surfaces, reduces the available solar resource and the resulting generated device power. This case-study summarizes initial results of 5-year research on the contrasting soiling conditions in the tropical, subtropical, and semi-arid climates in Brazil. A major objective is to present a case study of the effects of soiling on PV module performance in different Brazil climate zones that represent the primary areas for the current and expanding Brazil solar installations. For this, the paper presents methodologies to quantify the soiling ratio (SRatio) and soiling rate (SRate) for two representative commercial technologies, polycrystalline or multicrystalline silicon (mc-Si) and thin-film cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules, through soiling monitoring stations deployed in the selected climate regions. An aim is to add to the growing soiling-research knowledge base through addressing these key factors and their relationships to critical electrical, solar resource, thermal, and local meteorological and environmental parameters. This paper presents, evaluates, and compares soiling rates and losses in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais (Equatorial Tropical: 19.92° S, 43.99° W), Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul (Humid-Subtropical: 30.05° S, 51.17° W), and Brotas de Macaúbas, Bahia (Semi-Arid: 12.00° S, 42.63° W). The results show that soiling is moderate in all 3-regions, for example with 0.1%/day < SRate < 0.2%/day for Belo Horizonte. Precipitation dominates the cleaning of the modules in the summertime in this climate zone, while it is the major factor year-round in Rio Grande do Sul. Wind is the major issue mitigating the soiling accumulation for the Bahia installation. The methodology incorporates several key refinements, including the normalization and adjustment for the meteorological parameters (temperature, irradiance, wind, precipitation). The evaluations include the region-specific differing effects of non-uniform soiling, natural cleaning, and ambient temperatures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

How will United States commercial building energy use be impacted by IPCC climate scenarios?

Climate change and anthropogenically-forced shift of weather in the future will impact energy use and resilience of both the built environment and the electric grid. The aim of this analysis is to understand how future climate scenarios will impact electricity and natural gas use of commercial buildings in the United States. Here, this study analyzes this impact for 2030, 2045, and 2100 using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios defined in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 5. The large, gridded simulation of meteorological variables for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 are selected and downscaled to make available hourly Future Meteorological Year (FMY) weather files for use and improvement in subsequent studies. High performance computing resources use these FMYs to simulate commercial prototype buildings in every American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) climate zone of the United States (US), and results are scaled to nation-wide energy use using conditioned floor area multipliers. The analysis is conducted without speculating the physical and performance traits of future buildings or the grid characteristics. This analysis quantifies the impact of climate change on source electrical and natural gas usage for commercial buildings in the United States over the next 80 years. If US commercial floorspace remained constant, total energy use by 2100 is predicted between an 1.75% decrease under the greatest emission scenario (8.5) and a 1.76% increase under the lowest emission scenario (2.6). When adjusted for anticipated urban growth by 2100, the predicted range is 65% increase (8.5) and 71% increase (2.6). Under a global temperature rise climate scenario, the warmest US climate zones will see a large increases in electricity use derived from space cooling while the coldest US climate zones will see significant decreases in natural gas use caused by the decrease in heating necessary. While climate change may ultimately require adaptations of the built environment to withstand its effects and because the United States is a country that requires more heating than cooling, from a building energy perspective, climate change (average temperature rise) is a net energy saver for the United States.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗