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At least 379 records · Page 21

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DOE OSTI2020

A Coupled Mathematical Model of the Intracellular Replication of Dengue Virus and the Host Cell Immune Response to Infection

Dengue virus (DV) is a positive-strand RNA virus of the Flavivirus genus. It is one of the most prevalent mosquito-borne viruses, infecting globally 390 million individuals per year. The clinical spectrum of DV infection ranges from an asymptomatic course to severe complications such as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS), the latter because of severe plasma leakage. Given that the outcome of infection is likely determined by the kinetics of viral replication and the antiviral host cell immune response (HIR) it is of importance to understand the interaction between these two parameters. In this study, we use mathematical modeling to characterize and understand the complex interplay between intracellular DV replication and the host cells' defense mechanisms. We first measured viral RNA, viral protein, and virus particle production in Huh7 cells, which exhibit a notoriously weak intrinsic antiviral response. Based on these measurements, we developed a detailed intracellular DV replication model. We then measured replication in IFN competent A549 cells and used this data to couple the replication model with a model describing IFN activation and production of IFN stimulated genes (ISGs), as well as their interplay with DV replication. By comparing the cell line specific DV replication, we found that host factors involved in replication complex formation and virus particle production are crucial for replication efficiency. Regarding possible modes of action of the HIR, our model fits suggest that the HIR mainly affects DV RNA translation initiation, cytosolic DV RNA degradation, and naïve cell infection. We further analyzed the potential of direct acting antiviral drugs targeting different processes of the DV lifecycle in silico and found that targeting RNA synthesis and virus assembly and release are the most promising anti-DV drug targets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System: ENSO Prediction Skill and Bias

The GEOS-5 AOGCM known as S2S-1.0 has been in service from June 2012 through January 2018 (Borovikov et al. 2017). The atmospheric component of S2S-1.0 is Fortuna-2.5, the same that was used for the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), but with adjusted parameterization of moist processes and turbulence. The ocean component is the Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4). The sea ice component is the Community Ice CodE, version 4 (CICE). The land surface model is a catchment-based hydrological model coupled to the multi-layer snow model. The AGCM uses a Cartesian grid with a 1 deg × 1.25 deg horizontal resolution and 72 hybrid vertical levels with the upper most level at 0.01 hPa. OGCM nominal resolution of the tripolar grid is 1/2 deg, with a meridional equatorial refinement to 1/4 deg. In the coupled model initialization, selected atmospheric variables are constrained with MERRA. The Goddard Earth Observing System integrated Ocean Data Assimilation System (GEOS-iODAS) is used for both ocean state and sea ice initialization. SST, T and S profiles and sea ice concentration were assimilated.

GEOS-↗

DOE OSTI2026

CONUS-wide Projected Flood Frequency and Uncertainty Estimates, Version 1.0

This dataset presents a large-ensemble of CONUS-wide projected flood frequency and uncertainty estimates across ~2.7 million NHDPlusV2 river reaches over the CONUS. The framework producing this dataset leverages a multi-model, uncertainty-aware modeling framework that allows evaluating shifts in flood frequences at the stream reach level across the CONUS. CONUS-wide ensemble streamflow projections generated from hydrologic simulations driven by downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs are used to derive these flood frequency and uncertainty estimates over the period 1980 - 2099. A spatially consistent regional L-moment algorithm is applied across clusters defined by the US Hydrologic Unit Code Subregions (HUC4s and HUC8s) and NHDPlusV2 stream orders to estimate flood frequencies. The dataset also includes at-site based flood estimates that allow for the comparison between local and regional approach-based estimates, assess projected changes, and characterize their uncertainties. For more reliable estimation of rare flood frequencies such as 500 and 1000-year return periods, super-ensemble based estimates are also included in the dataset. This dataset is derived to support the "Impact-Informed Dam Safety Risk Assessment for Securing Hydropower Assests" project for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hydropower and Hydrokinetic Office (H2O). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Ghimire et al. (2023), Ghimire et al. (2025), and Hosking and Wallis (1997).

Ghimire, Ganesh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242843941)↗

NASA NTRS2017

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2017: June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The GMAO seasonal forecast is produced from coupled model integrations that are initialized every five days, with seven additional ensemble members generated by coupled model breeding and initialized on the date closest to the beginning of the month. The main components of the AOGCM are the GEOS-5 atmospheric model, the MOM4 ocean model, and CICE sea ice model. Forecast fields were re-gridded to the passive microwave grid for averaging.

Sea Ice↗

NASA NTRS2017

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2017 July Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

Arctic↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Water Table Model (WTM) (v2.0.1): coupled groundwater and dynamic lake modelling

Abstract. Ice-free land comprises 26 % of the Earth's surface and holds liquid water that delineates ecosystems, affects global geochemical cycling, and modulates sea levels. However, we currently lack the capacity to simulate and predict these terrestrial water changes across the full range of relevant spatial (watershed to global) and temporal (monthly to millennial) scales. To address this knowledge gap, we present the Water Table Model (WTM), which integrates coupled components to compute dynamic lake and groundwater levels. The groundwater component solves the 2D horizontal groundwater flow equation using non-linear equation solvers from the C++ PETSc (Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation) library. The dynamic lake component makes use of the Fill–Spill–Merge (FSM) algorithm to move surface water into lakes, where it may evaporate or affect groundwater flow. In a proof-of-concept application, we demonstrate the continental-scale capabilities of the WTM by simulating the steady-state climate-driven water table for the present day and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 calendar years before present) across the North American continent. During the LGM, North America stored an additional 14.98 cm of sea-level equivalent (SLE) in lakes and groundwater compared to the climate-driven present-day scenario. We compare the present-day result to other simulations and real-world data. Open-source code for the WTM is available on GitHub and Zenodo.

Callaghan, Kerry L. (ORCID:0000000226740838)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Accuracy of Balanced Power System Models in the Presence of Voltage Unbalance

Traditional models of electric power systems represent distribution systems with unbalanced three-phase network models and transmission systems with balanced single-phase-equivalent network models. This distinction poses a challenge for coupled models of transmission and distribution systems, which are becoming more prevalent due to the growth of distributed energy resources connected to distribution systems. In order to maintain a balanced network representation, transmission system models typically assume that the voltage phasors at the interface to the distribution system are balanced. Inaccuracies resulting from this assumption during unbalanced operation can lead to erroneous values for line currents in the transmission system model. This paper empirically quantifies the accuracy of this balanced operating assumption during unbalanced operating conditions for both a simple two-bus system along with a more complex transmission and distribution co-simulation. This paper also characterizes the performance of different methods for translating the unbalanced voltage phasors into a balanced representation in order to give recommendations for modeling coupled transmission and distribution systems.

power distribution↗

DOE OSTI2020

Forecasting Remote Atmospheric Responses to Decadal Kuroshio Stability Transitions

Based on observational estimates and global ocean eddy-resolving coupled retrospective initialized predictions, we show that Kuroshio Extension variability affects rainfall variability along the west coast of North America. We show that the teleconnection between the current undulations and downstream rainfall can lead to improved subseasonal to seasonal predictions of precipitation over California, and we demonstrate that capturing these teleconnections requires coupled systems with sufficient ocean resolution (i.e., eddy-resolving), especially over time scales longer than one season. The improved forecast skill is diagnosed in terms of 35 years of retrospective initialized ensemble forecasts with an ocean eddy-resolving and an ocean eddy-parameterized coupled model. Not only does the ocean eddy-resolving model show sensitivity to Kuroshio Extension variability in terms of western North America precipitation, but the ocean eddy-resolving forecasts also show improved forecast skill compared to the ocean eddy-parameterized model. Additionally, the ocean eddy-parameterized coupled model shows no sensitivity to Kuroshio Extension variability. We also find near-decadal variability associated with a progression of a lower-tropospheric height dipole around the North Pacific and how these height anomalies lead to wind-driven Rossby waves that affect the eddy activity in the Kuroshio Extension with a time lag on the order of four years. This decadal-scale variability (~10 years) opens the possibility of multiyear predictability of western North American rainfall.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1973

ERTS-1 imagery use in reconnaissance prospecting: Evaluation of commercial utility of ERTS-1 imagery in structural reconnaissance for minerals and petroleum

The author has identified the following significant results. This study was performed to investigate applications of ERTS-1 imagery in commercial reconnaissance for mineral and hydrocarbon resources. ERTS-1 imagery collected over five areas in North America (Montana; Colorado; New Mexico-West Texas; Superior Province, Canada; and North Slope, Alaska) has been analyzed for data content including linears, lineaments, and curvilinear anomalies. Locations of these features were mapped and compared with known locations of mineral and hydrocarbon accumulations. Results were analyzed in the context of a simple-shear, block-coupling model. Data analyses have resulted in detection of new lineaments, some of which may be continental in extent, detection of many curvilinear patterns not generally seen on aerial photos, strong evidence of continental regmatic fracture patterns, and realization that geological features can be explained in terms of a simple-shear, block-coupling model. The conculsions are that ERTS-1 imagery is of great value in photogeologic/geomorphic interpretations of regional features, and the simple-shear, block-coupling model provides a means of relating data from ERTS imagery to structures that have controlled emplacement of ore deposits and hydrocarbon accumulations, thus providing a basis for a new approach for reconnaissance for mineral, uranium, gas, and oil deposits and structures.

Saunders, D. F.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Radiative and thermodynamic responses to aerosol extinction profiles during the pre-monsoon month over South Asia

Aerosol radiative effects and thermodynamic responses over South Asia are examined with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) for March 2012. Model results of aerosol optical depths (AODs) and extinction profiles are analyzed and compared to satellite retrievals and two ground-based lidars located in northern India. The WRF-Chem model is found to heavily underestimate the AOD during the simulated pre-monsoon month and about 83 % of the model's low bias is due to aerosol extinctions below ∼ 2 km. Doubling the calculated aerosol extinctions below 850 hPa generates much better agreement with the observed AOD and extinction profiles averaged over South Asia. To separate the effect of absorption and scattering properties, two runs were conducted: in one run (Case I), the calculated scattering and absorption coefficients were increased proportionally, while in the second run (Case II) only the calculated aerosol scattering coefficient was increased. With the same AOD and extinction profiles, the two runs produce significantly different radiative effects over land and oceans. On the regional mean basis, Case I generates 48 % more heating in the atmosphere and 21 % more dimming at the surface than Case II. Case I also produces stronger cooling responses over the land from the longwave radiation adjustment and boundary layer mixing. These rapid adjustments offset the stronger radiative heating in Case I and lead to an overall lower-troposphere cooling up to −0.7 K day −1 , which is smaller than that in Case II. Over the ocean, direct radiative effects dominate the heating rate changes in the lower atmosphere lacking such surface and lower atmosphere adjustments due to fixed sea surface temperature, and the strongest atmospheric warming is obtained in Case I. Consequently, atmospheric dynamics (boundary layer heights and meridional circulation) and thermodynamic processes (water vapor and cloudiness) are shown to respond differently between Case I and Case II, underlining the importance of determining the exact portion of scattering or absorbing aerosols that lead to the underestimation of aerosol optical depth in the model. In addition, the model results suggest that both the direct radiative effect and rapid thermodynamic responses need to be quantified for understanding aerosol radiative impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

A heuristic model inversion for coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical modelling of triaxial experiments

As multiphysics geomechanical models get developed, their increasing complexity and number of parameters make it particularly difficult to calibrate against experimental data. In this contribution, we present a heuristic workflow to invert for parameters of a coupled Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical (THM) model in a way that helps the theoretical modellers refine their definition of the underlying elasto-visco-plastic model itself. We apply this workflow to the calibration of deviatoric and volumetric data for two sets of triaxial experiments on mudstone and sandstone. Here, we show that beyond the calibration of well-defined parameters of the THM model, one or two scaling factors of the experimentally obtained yield surface and two more factors to capture the confinement and pore pressure dependency of the flow law lead to the satisfactory matching of series of experiments at varying confinements for two different rock types. Using this physical model, we also show that tracking the volumetric component of the mechanical power in the numerical simulations might allow reducing the number of experiments required to calibrate the model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Regime-Oriented Approach to Observationally Constraining Extratropical Shortwave Cloud Feedbacks

The extratropical shortwave (SW) cloud feedback is primarily due to increases in extratropical liquid cloud extent and optical depth. Here, we examine the response of extratropical (35°-75°) marine cloud liquid water path (LWP) to a uniform 4 K increase in sea surface temperature (SST) in global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and variants of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 GCM. Compositing is used to partition data into periods inside and out of cyclones. The response of extratropical LWP to a uniform SST increase and associated atmospheric response varies substantially among GCMs, but the sensitivity of LWP to cloud controlling factors (CCFs) is qualitatively similar. When all other predictors are held constant, increasing moisture flux drives an increase in LWP. Increasing SST, holding all other predictors fixed, leads to a decrease in LWP. The combinations of these changes lead to LWP, and by extension reflected SW, increasing with warming in both hemispheres. Observations predict an increase in reflected SW over oceans of 0.8 W/sq.m to 1.6 W/sq.m per K SST increase (35°N-75°N) and 1.2 W/sq.m to 1.9 W/sq.m per K SST increase (35°S- 75°S). This increase in reflected SW is mainly due to increased moisture convergence into cyclones because of increasing available moisture. The efficiency at which converging moisture is converted into precipitation determines the amount of liquid cloud. Thus, cyclone precipitation processes are critical to constraining extratropical cloud feedbacks.

extratropical shortwave (SW) cloud feedback↗

DOE OSTI2013

A bidirectional coupling procedure applied to multiscale respiratory modeling

In this study, we present a novel multiscale computational framework for efficiently linking multiple lower-dimensional models describing the distal lung mechanics to imaging-based 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFDs) models of the upper pulmonary airways in order to incorporate physiologically appropriate outlet boundary conditions. The framework is an extension of the modified Newton’s method with nonlinear Krylov accelerator developed by Carlson and Miller [1], Miller [2] and Scott and Fenves [3]. Our extensions include the retention of subspace information over multiple timesteps, and a special correction at the end of a timestep that allows for corrections to be accepted with verified low residual with as little as a single residual evaluation per timestep on average. In the case of a single residual evaluation per timestep, the method has zero additional computational cost compared to uncoupled or unidirectionally coupled simulations. We expect these enhancements to be generally applicable to other multiscale coupling applications where timestepping occurs. In addition we have developed a “pressure-drop” residual which allows for stable coupling of flows between a 3D incompressible CFD application and another (lower-dimensional) fluid system. We expect this residual to also be useful for coupling non-respiratory incompressible fluid applications, such as multiscale simulations involving blood flow. The lower-dimensional models that are considered in this study are sets of simple ordinary differential equations (ODEs) representing the compliant mechanics of symmetric human pulmonary airway trees. To validate the method, we compare the predictions of hybrid CFD–ODE models against an ODE-only model of pulmonary airflow in an idealized geometry. Subsequently, we couple multiple sets of ODEs describing the distal lung to an imaging-based human lung geometry. Boundary conditions in these models consist of atmospheric pressure at the mouth and intrapleural pressure applied to the multiple sets of ODEs. In both the simplified geometry and in the imaging-based geometry, the performance of the method was comparable to that of monolithic schemes, in most cases requiring only a single CFD evaluation per time step. Thus, this new accelerator allows us to begin combining pulmonary CFD models with lower-dimensional models of pulmonary mechanics with little computational overhead. Moreover, because the CFD and lower-dimensional models are totally separate, this framework affords great flexibility in terms of the type and breadth of the adopted lower-dimensional model, allowing the biomedical researcher to appropriately focus on model design. Research funded by the National Heart and Blood Institute Award 1RO1HL073598.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Coupled THM Modeling of Hydroshearing Stimulation in Tight Fractured Volcanic Rock

Here, we use the TOUGH-FLAC simulator for coupled thermo–hydro-mechanical modeling of well stimulation for an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) project. We also analyze the potential for injection-induced fracturing and reactivation of natural fractures in a porous medium with associated permeability enhancement. Our analysis aims to understand how far the EGS reservoir may grow and how the hydroshearing process relates to system conditions. We analyze the enhanced reservoir, or hydrosheared zone, by studying the extent of the failure zone using an elasto-plastic model, and accounting for permeability changes as a function of the induced stresses. For both fully saturated and unsaturated medium cases, the results demonstrate how EGS reservoir growth depends on the initial fluid phase, and how the reservoir extent changes as a function of two critical parameters: (1) the coefficient of friction, and (2) the permeability-enhancement factor. Furthermore, while well stimulation is driven by pressure exceeding the hydroshearing threshold, the modeling also demonstrates how injection-induced cooling further extends the effects of stimulation.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Advanced Reactors-Intermediate Heat Exchanger (IHX) Coupling: Theoretical Modeling and Experimental Validation

The overall goal of the research project was to model the behavior of the advanced reactorintermediate heat exchange system and to develop advanced control techniques for off-normal conditions. The specific objectives defined for the project were: 1. To develop the steady-state thermal hydraulic design of the intermediate heat exchanger (IHX); 2. To develop mathematical models to describe the advanced nuclear reactor-IHX-chemical process/power generation coupling during normal and off-normal operations, and to simulate models using multiphysics software; 3. To develop control strategies using genetic algorithm or neural network techniques and couple these techniques with the multiphysics software; 4. To validate the models experimentally The project objectives were accomplished by defining and executing four different tasks corresponding to these specific objectives. The first task involved selection of IHX candidates and developing steady state designs for those. The second task involved modeling of the transient and offnormal operation of the reactor-IHX system. The subsequent task dealt with the development of control strategies and involved algorithm development and simulation. The last task involved experimental validation of the thermal hydraulic performances of the two prototype heat exchangers designed and fabricated for the project at steady state and transient conditions to simulate the coupling of the reactor- IHX-process plant system. The experimental work utilized the two test facilities at The Ohio State University (OSU) including one existing High-Temperature Helium Test Facility (HTHF) and the newly developed high-temperature molten salt facility.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) Model - An Unified Concept for Earthquake Precursors Validation

The paper presents a conception of complex multidisciplinary approach to the problem of clarification the nature of short-term earthquake precursors observed in atmosphere, atmospheric electricity and in ionosphere and magnetosphere. Our approach is based on the most fundamental principles of tectonics giving understanding that earthquake is an ultimate result of relative movement of tectonic plates and blocks of different sizes. Different kind of gases: methane, helium, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide leaking from the crust can serve as carrier gases for radon including underwater seismically active faults. Radon action on atmospheric gases is similar to the cosmic rays effects in upper layers of atmosphere: it is the air ionization and formation by ions the nucleus of water condensation. Condensation of water vapor is accompanied by the latent heat exhalation is the main cause for observing atmospheric thermal anomalies. Formation of large ion clusters changes the conductivity of boundary layer of atmosphere and parameters of the global electric circuit over the active tectonic faults. Variations of atmospheric electricity are the main source of ionospheric anomalies over seismically active areas. Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model can explain most of these events as a synergy between different ground surface, atmosphere and ionosphere processes and anomalous variations which are usually named as short-term earthquake precursors. A newly developed approach of Interdisciplinary Space-Terrestrial Framework (ISTF) can provide also a verification of these precursory processes in seismically active regions. The main outcome of this paper is the unified concept for systematic validation of different types of earthquake precursors united by physical basis in one common theory.

Pulinets, S.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Collective dynamics in atomistic models with coupled translational and spin degrees of freedom

When using an atomistic model that simultaneously treats the dynamics of translational and spin degrees of freedom, we perform combined molecular and spin dynamics simulations to investigate the mutual influence of the phonons and magnons on their respective frequency spectra and lifetimes in ferromagnetic bcc iron. Furthermore, by calculating the Fourier transforms of the space- and time-displaced correlation functions, the characteristic frequencies and the linewidths of the vibrational and magnetic excitation modes were determined. A comparison of the results with that of the stand-alone molecular dynamics and spin dynamics simulations reveals that the dynamic interplay between the phonons and magnons leads to a shift in the respective frequency spectra and a decrease in the lifetimes. Moreover, in the presence of lattice vibrations, additional longitudinal magnetic excitations were observed with the same frequencies as the longitudinal phonons.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1980

Model of coupling discharges into spacecraft structures

The calculated results of a semiempirical model for electron-caused electromagnetic pulse (ECEMP) are compared to the experimental data for three spacecraft geometries. The appropriateness of certain model assumptions which have been employed in the absence of a microscopic theory for dielectric breakdown and associated electron blowoff is discussed. Results are limited to the exterior response of spacecraft structures, although neither the model nor the experiments were limited to the outside problem. Rationales for model assumptions are provided.

Woods, A. J.↗