Nuclear fragmentation models and uncertainties in cosmic ray transport and radiobiology studies
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NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
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Creep anisotropy modeling and uncertainty quantification of an additively manufactured Ni-based superalloy
The advantages offered by additive manufacturing over traditional processes has driven a great deal of industrial and academic interest in recent years. However, the process is relatively new and requires additional investigation to become sufficiently mature for wide scale industrial adoption. Electron beam melting powder bed fusion is one technology that has shown promise for fabricating high temperature resistant materials such as nickel based superalloys. The resulting microstructures typically exhibit a strong fiber texture in the build direction giving rise to anisotropic time-dependent deformation behavior. In order to accelerate the qualification of these materials for industrial adoption accurate numerical models are needed for simulating their behavior. In this work a crystal plasticity model including non-Schmid effects is presented for capturing creep anisotropy observed in additively manufactured IN738LC. The model is calibrated via a probabilistic framework where model parameters are treated as random variables. An iterative sequential design strategy is utilized to efficiently identify the probability density of the unknown model parameters. As a case study the model is utilized to investigate the behavior of randomly oriented equiaxed grain clusters sometimes observed embedded in the additively manufactured columnar structure. A synthetic realization is simulated and uncertainty is propagated through to the full-field response. Results indicate that these features are the source of significant creep relaxation and strain accumulation which partially explains observed grain boundary decohesion at these locations.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Modeling and Simulation Techniques for the NASA SLS Service Module Panel Separation Event; from Loosely-Coupled Euler to Fully-Coupled 6-DOF, Time-Accurate, Navier-Stokes Methodologies
An aerodynamic database has been generated for use by the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program to analyze Service Module (SM) panel jettison from the NASA SLS vehicle. The database is a combination of CFD data for the panel aerodynamic coefficients, and MATLAB code written to query the CFD data. The Cart3D inviscid CFD flow solver was used to generate the panel aerodynamic coefficients for static panel orientations and free stream conditions that can occur during the jettison event. The MATLAB code performs the multivariate interpolation to obtain aerodynamic coefficients. The MATLAB code uses input for SM panel parameters and returns the SM panel aerodynamic force and moment coefficients for use with a Six-Degree-of-Freedom (6-DOF) motion solver to model the jettison event. This paper examines the accuracy of the sequential-static database approach by modeling the panel jettison event with a fully-coupled, time-dependent, viscous, moving-body CFD simulation. The fully-coupled simulation is obtained using the Loci/Chem unstructured Navier-Stokes CFD solver. The results show that the fully-coupled approach agrees well with the loosely-coupled database/6-DOF approach, indicating that unsteady effects are minimal for the panel jettison event. These results suggest that the database/6-DOF approach is sufficient. In addition, this paper presents the development of an uncertainty model for use in Monte Carlo analysis of the panel jettison event. Here viscous CFD simulations are obtained with Loci/Chem and compared to the inviscid CFD forces and moments. An uncertainty model based on model-form error and numerical error is presented.
Hall, Leslie H.↗
When do different scenarios of projected electricity demand start to meaningfully diverge?
Resource adequacy studies look at balancing electricity supply and demand on 10- to 15-year time horizons while asset investment planning typically evaluates returns on 20- to 40-year time horizons. Projections of electricity demand are factored into the decision-making in both cases. Climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic changes are key uncertainties known to influence electricity demands, but their relative importance for demands over the next 10-40 years is unclear. The power sector would benefit from a better understanding of the need to characterize these uncertainties for resource adequacy and investment planning. In this study, we quantify when projected United States (U.S.) electricity demands start to meaningfully diverge in response to a range of climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic drivers. Here we use a wide yet plausible range of 21st century scenarios for the U.S. The projections span two population/economic growth scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5) and two climate/energy policy scenarios, one including climate mitigation policies and one without (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Each climate/energy policy scenario has two warming levels to reflect a range of climate model uncertainty. We show that the socioeconomic scenario matters almost immediately – within the next 10 years, the climate/policy scenario matters within 25-30 years, and the climate model uncertainty matters only after 50+ years. This work can inform the power sector working to integrate climate change uncertainties into their decision-making.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity
The Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Orion vehicle finite element model (FEM) was updated based on a modal test performed by Lockheed Martin. Due to nonlinearity observed in the test results, linear low force level (LL) and high force level (HL) FEMs were developed for use during various Space Launch System (SLS) flight regimes depending on expected forcing levels. Uncertainty models were derived for the combined MPCV and MPCV Stage Adaptor LL and HL Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components based on the MPCV structural test article Configuration 4 modal test-analysis correlation results. Subsequently, system-level uncertainty quantification analyses were performed using both models for various SLS flight configurations to determine the impact of the nonlinearity on important system metrics. The system metrics included both transfer functions associated with attitude control and dynamic loads associated with aerodynamic buffeting during ascent. In each case, an independent Monte Carlo (MC) analysis was performed, and no attempt was made to combine the results. The Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method was used to develop the LL and HL MPCV HCB uncertainty models. The HPV method provides both parametric and non-parametric components of uncertainty. The non-parametric uncertainty accounts for the difference in model-form between the linearized analytical model and the corresponding linearized component test results in the form of mode shapes and frequencies at that force level. This linear model-form uncertainty is implemented in the HPV method using random matrix theory. However, the HPV uncertainty models developed for the linear LL and HL MPCV components do not account for the nonlinearity in the MPCV. With respect to the linearized models, this nonlinearity is also an uncertainty in model form, but in this case, it must be treated independently as an epistemic uncertainty. It represents a lack of knowledge, in contrast to an aleatory uncertainty due to the randomness of a variable. In the case of an epistemic variable, the true value is unknown, only the interval within which it lies is known. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced with increased knowledge, while in general, aleatory uncertainty cannot. This work combines the epistemic uncertainty due to the MPCV nonlinearity with the parametric and non-parametric uncertainty within the HPV method using a second order propagation approach. The LL and HL test data is augmented with surrogate test data derived from a nonlinear MPCV representation. The impact of the MPCV nonlinearity on system response statistics is determined using a series of cumulative distribution functions in the form of a horsetail plot, or p-box. This results in an interval of probabilities for a specific response value, or an interval of response values at a specific probability.
Daniel C Kammer↗
Dakota Uncertainty Quantification Methods Applied to the CFD code Nek5000
Predictive modeling and simulation of the performance of a nuclear reactor and its fuel is a challenging task because of the large number of coupled physical phenomena that must be addressed. In addition to this intrinsic complexity, model uncertainty must be accounted for in any analysis if the model will be used to facilitate design or operational decisions which may impact safety and performance. Rigorous, structured uncertainty analyses are performed by first characterizing the model's input uncertainties and, by propagating the uncertainty through the model in order to estimate the output's uncertainty. This paper presents the state of advancement of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) project to characterize the uncertainty of the CFD code Nek5000 using the Dakota package. Nek5000 is a high order spectral element computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code developed at Argonne National Laboratory for high resolution spectral-filtered large eddy simulations (LESs) and unsteady Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations. The Dakota package developed at Sandia National Laboratory can be integrated with many scientific and engineering codes to facilitate efficient, effective uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analyses. Dakota is designed to interface with external packages/codes such as Nek5000 through a script-driven interface called fork. Such interface provides maximum flexibility to the users for pre- and post-processing tasks preceding and following each function evaluation. (authors)
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Cosmological constraints from galaxy–lensing cross-correlations using BOSS galaxies with SDSS and CMB lensing
ABSTRACT We present cosmological parameter constraints based on a joint modelling of galaxy–lensing cross-correlations and galaxy clustering measurements in the SDSS, marginalizing over small-scale modelling uncertainties using mock galaxy catalogues, without explicit modelling of galaxy bias. We show that our modelling method is robust to the impact of different choices for how galaxies occupy dark matter haloes and to the impact of baryonic physics (at the $\sim 2{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ level in cosmological parameters) and test for the impact of covariance on the likelihood analysis and of the survey window function on the theory computations. Applying our results to the measurements using galaxy samples from BOSS and lensing measurements using shear from SDSS galaxies and CMB lensing from Planck, with conservative scale cuts, we obtain $S_8\equiv \left(\frac{\sigma _8}{0.8228}\right)^{0.8}\left(\frac{\Omega _\mathrm{ m}}{0.307}\right)^{0.6}=0.85\pm 0.05$ (stat.) using LOWZ × SDSS galaxy lensing, and S8 = 0.91 ± 0.1 (stat.) using combination of LOWZ and CMASS × Planck CMB lensing. We estimate the systematic uncertainty in the galaxy–galaxy lensing measurements to be $\sim 6{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ (dominated by photometric redshift uncertainties) and in the galaxy–CMB lensing measurements to be $\sim 3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, from small-scale modelling uncertainties including baryonic physics.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
The effect of plant physiological responses to rising CO 2 on global streamflow
River flow statistics are expected to change as a result of increasing atmospheric CO 2 but uncertainty in Earth system model projections is high. While this is partly driven by changing precipitation, with well-known Earth system model uncertainties, in this work we show that the influence of plant stomatal conductance feedbacks can cause equally large changes in regional flood extremes and even act as the main control on future low latitude streamflow. Over most tropical land masses, modern climate predictions suggest that plant physiological effects will boost streamflow, overwhelming opposing effects of soil drying driven by the effects of CO 2 on atmospheric radiation, warming and rainfall redistribution. The relatively unknown uncertainties in representing eco-physiological processes must therefore be better constrained in land-surface models. To this end, we identify a distinct plant physiological fingerprint on annual peak, low and mean discharge throughout the tropics and identify river basins where physiological responses dominate radiative responses to rising CO 2 in modern climate projections.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Modeling with uncertainty quantification reveals the essentials of a non-canonical algal carbon-concentrating mechanism
The thermoacidophilic red alga Cyanidioschyzon merolae survives its challenging environment likely in part by operating a carbon-concentrating mechanism (CCM). Here, we demonstrated that C. merolae 's cellular affinity for CO 2 is stronger than the affinity of its rubisco for CO 2 . This finding provided additional evidence that C. merolae operates a CCM while lacking the structures and functions characteristic of CCMs in other organisms. To test how such a CCM could function, we created a mathematical compartmental model of a simple CCM, distinct from those we have seen previously described in detail. The results of our modeling supported the feasibility of this proposed minimal and non-canonical CCM in C. merolae . To facilitate the robust modeling of this process, we measured and incorporated physiological and enzymatic parameters into the model. Additionally, we trained a surrogate machine-learning model to emulate the mechanistic model and characterized the effects of model parameters on key outputs. This parameter exploration enabled us to identify model features that influenced whether the model met the experimentally derived criteria for functional carbon concentration and efficient energy usage. Such parameters included cytosolic pH, bicarbonate pumping cost and kinetics, cell radius, carboxylation velocity, number of thylakoid membranes, and CO 2 membrane permeability. Our exploration thus suggested that a non-canonical CCM could exist in C. merolae and illuminated the essential features generally necessary for CCMs to function.
Steensma, Anne K. [Michigan State Univ., East Lans↗
Validation of sea ice models using an uncertainty-based distance metric for multiple model variables: NEW METRIC FOR SEA ICE MODEL VALIDATION
Here, we implement a variance-based distance metric (D n ) to objectively assess skill of sea ice models when multiple output variables or uncertainties in both model predictions and observations need to be considered. The metric compares observations and model data pairs on common spatial and temporal grids improving upon highly aggregated metrics (e.g., total sea ice extent or volume) by capturing the spatial character of model skill. The D n metric is a gamma-distributed statistic that is more general than the χ 2 statistic commonly used to assess model fit, which requires the assumption that the model is unbiased and can only incorporate observational error in the analysis. The D n statistic does not assume that the model is unbiased, and allows the incorporation of multiple observational data sets for the same variable and simultaneously for different variables, along with different types of variances that can characterize uncertainties in both observations and the model. This approach represents a step to establish a systematic framework for probabilistic validation of sea ice models. The methodology is also useful for model tuning by using the D n metric as a cost function and incorporating model parametric uncertainty as part of a scheme to optimize model functionality. We apply this approach to evaluate different configurations of the standalone Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) encompassing the parametric uncertainty in the model, and to find new sets of model configurations that produce better agreement than previous configurations between model and observational estimates of sea ice concentration and thickness.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Propagation of input parameter uncertainties in transport models
Here, the many sources of uncertainty in validation studies of plasma turbulence in magnetically confined fusion devices are well-known. In this paper, we investigate how to efficiently transform uncertainties in experimentally derived transport model inputs into model prediction uncertainties, using the quasilinear trapped-gyro-Landau-fluid (TGLF) turbulent transport model. We use the rapidly converging and computationally inexpensive non-intrusive probabilistic collocation method (PCM) to propagate input parameter uncertainty probability distribution functions (PDFs) through TGLF, yielding PDFs of predicted transport fluxes. We observe in many cases that the flux PDFs exhibit significant non-normal features such as strong skewness, even when the input distributions were normal. To illustrate the utility of the PCM approach, we apply this methodology to transport predictions for a DIII-D ITER baseline plasma in which the mix of neutral beam injection (NBI) and electron cyclotron heating (ECH) was varied. The model predictions show clear changes in the parametric dependencies and sensitivities of the turbulence between the two heating mixes. Specifically, when only NBI heating was used, the transport fluxes responded significantly only to the ion temperature gradient scale length. However, when both NBI and ECH were applied, the electron transport channels demonstrate a strong sensitivity to the electron temperature and density gradients not observed in the NBI-only case. Additional context for the PCM approach is provided by comparing its predictions with those obtained via a local flux-matching approach. A new set of validation metrics based on the Wasserstein distance is proposed for PDF-based comparisons.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
A Diagnoser Algorithm for Anomaly Detection in DEDS under Partial Unreliable Observations: Characterization and Inclusion in Sensor Configuration Optimizaton
Complex engineering systems have to be carefully monitored to meet demanding performance requirements, including detecting anomalies in their operations. There are two major monitoring challenges for these systems. The first challenge is that information collected from the monitored system is often partial and/or unreliable, in the sense that some occurred events may not be reported and/or may be reported incorrectly (e.g., reported as another event). The second is that anomalies often consist of sequences of event patterns separated in space and time. This paper introduces and analyzes a diagnoser algorithm that meets these challenges for detecting and counting occurrences of anomalies in engineering systems. The proposed diagnoser algorithm assumes that models are available for characterizing plant operations (via stochastic automata) and sensors (via probabilistic mappings) used for reporting partial and unreliable information. Methods for analyzing the effects of model uncertainties on the diagnoser performance are also discussed. In order to select configurations that reduce sensor costs, while satisfying diagnoser performance requirements, a sensor configuration selection algorithm developed in previous work is then extended for the proposed diagnoser algorithm. The proposed algorithms and methods are then applied to a multi-unit-operation system, which is derived from an actual facility application. Results show that the proposed diagnoser algorithm is able to detect and count occurrences of anomalies accurately and that its performance is robust to model uncertainties. Furthermore, the sensor configuration selection algorithm is able to suggest optimal sensor configurations with significantly reduced costs, while still yielding acceptable performance for counting the occurrences of anomalies.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Use of A-Train Aerosol Observations to Constrain Direct Aerosol Radiative Effects (DARE) Comparisons with Aerocom Models and Uncertainty Assessments
We describe a technique for combining multiple A-Train aerosol data sets, namely MODIS spectral AOD (aerosol optical depth), OMI AAOD (absorption aerosol optical depth) and CALIOP aerosol backscatter retrievals (hereafter referred to as MOC retrievals) to estimate full spectral sets of aerosol radiative properties, and ultimately to calculate the 3-D distribution of direct aerosol radiative effects (DARE). We present MOC results using almost two years of data collected in 2007 and 2008, and show comparisons of the aerosol radiative property estimates to collocated AERONET retrievals. Use of the MODIS Collection 6 AOD data derived with the dark target and deep blue algorithms has extended the coverage of the MOC retrievals towards higher latitudes. The MOC aerosol retrievals agree better with AERONET in terms of the single scattering albedo (ssa) at 441 nm than ssa calculated from OMI and MODIS data alone, indicating that CALIOP aerosol backscatter data contains information on aerosol absorption. We compare the spatio-temporal distribution of the MOC retrievals and MOC-based calculations of seasonal clear-sky DARE to values derived from four models that participated in the Phase II AeroCom model intercomparison initiative. Overall, the MOC-based calculations of clear-sky DARE at TOA over land are smaller (less negative) than previous model or observational estimates due to the inclusion of more absorbing aerosol retrievals over brighter surfaces, not previously available for observationally-based estimates of DARE. MOC-based DARE estimates at the surface over land and total (land and ocean) DARE estimates at TOA are in between previous model and observational results. Comparisons of seasonal aerosol property to AeroCom Phase II results show generally good agreement best agreement with forcing results at TOA is found with GMI-MerraV3. We discuss sampling issues that affect the comparisons and the major challenges in extending our clear-sky DARE results to all-sky conditions. We present estimates of clear-sky and all-sky DARE and show uncertainties that stem from the assumptions in the spatial extrapolation and accuracy of aerosol and cloud properties, in the diurnal evolution of these properties, and in the radiative transfer calculations.
aerosol↗
Confidence bounds on structural reliability
Different approaches for quantifying physical, statistical, and model uncertainties associated with the distribution parameters which are aimed at determining structural reliability are described. Confidence intervals on the distribution parameters of the input random variables are estimated using four algorithms to evaluate uncertainty of the response. Design intervals are evaluated using either Monte Carlo simulation or an iterative approach. A first order approach can be used to compute a first approximation of the design interval, but its accuracy is not satisfactory. The regression approach which combines the iterative approach with Monte Carlo simulation is capable of providing good results if the performance function can be accurately represented using regression analysis. It is concluded that the design interval-based approach seems to be quite general and takes into account distribution and model uncertainties.
Mehta, S. R.↗
Learning Model Structural Uncertainty with Gaussian Processes
The advent of commercially available quantum computers has marked the beginning of quantum computing as a reality. Both quantum gate and annealing computers have been released by major computer hardware companies. In this work, the D-Wave 2XTM quantum annealing computer housed at the NASA Advanced Systems computational facility is investigated to accelerate Machine Learning (ML) for image registration. NASA collects large amounts of images over the globe remotely using space-based monitoring. Images of a fixed areas of the land surface are taken over time. Due to the orbit of the sensors, the viewing angles deviate slightly, and it is necessary to align or register the images precisely to create image time series over the land surface. Unaligned images can lead to substantial analysis errors. These time-series are then used in modeling Earth Systems models such as hydrological, weather, and carbon monitoring models. In this work, we consider the Moderate Resolution Image Spectrometer (MODIS) data collected by the NASA's terra satellite. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is a natural fit for ML modelling of images. Several successes have been reported using machine learning related to image processing. We investigate the use of ML to register MODIS images. ANNs are investigated in combination with a Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM) as an auto-encoder. We will present results showing the accuracy and efficiency of this approach.The D-Wave 2XTM quantum annealer samples the ground-state wave-function of a spin-Ising systems with quadratic interactions between qubits and a Chimera connectivity. The system sits in a ~15 mK thermal bath. One can think of the system as being placed in the ground state initially and subject to thermal excitations governed by Boltzmann statistics. If this is assumed true, one can use the statistics from the D-Wave 2XTM to train RBMs. Generating statistics for training Boltzmann machines is an NP-hard problem and constitutes the largest compute cost. We investigate the use of the D-Wave 2XTM to accelerate the training of the RBMs in our ANNs and report on the results.
Kouatchou, Jules↗
Model Comparison and Uncertainty Quantification for Geologic Carbon Storage. The Sim-SEQ Initiative
Sim-SEQ is a model comparison initiative for geologic carbon storage (GCS). In Sim-SEQ, fifteen different modeling teams are developing conceptual models for flow and transport of an injected CO 2 plume at the Sim-SEQ study site (or the S-3 site) located near Cranfield, Mississippi. The objective of the project is to understand the sources of model uncertainty in GCS, and if possible, to quantify these uncertainties through comparison of the different conceptual models and also through comparison with observed data from the S-3 site. In this paper, we compare six different conceptual models of the S-3 site, and present a preliminary uncertainty analysis of these six models using a generalized linear model approach. We show that differences in model conceptualization and interpretation of site characterization data caus a significant range in predictions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Uncertainty and Intelligence in Computational Stochastic Mechanics
Classical structural reliability assessment techniques are based on precise and crisp (sharp) definitions of failure and non-failure (survival) of a structure in meeting a set of strength, function and serviceability criteria. These definitions are provided in the form of performance functions and limit state equations. Thus, the criteria provide a dichotomous definition of what real physical situations represent, in the form of abrupt change from structural survival to failure. However, based on observing the failure and survival of real structures according to the serviceability and strength criteria, the transition from a survival state to a failure state and from serviceability criteria to strength criteria are continuous and gradual rather than crisp and abrupt. That is, an entire spectrum of damage or failure levels (grades) is observed during the transition to total collapse. In the process, serviceability criteria are gradually violated with monotonically increasing level of violation, and progressively lead into the strength criteria violation. Classical structural reliability methods correctly and adequately include the ambiguity sources of uncertainty (physical randomness, statistical and modeling uncertainty) by varying amounts. However, they are unable to adequately incorporate the presence of a damage spectrum, and do not consider in their mathematical framework any sources of uncertainty of the vagueness type. Vagueness can be attributed to sources of fuzziness, unclearness, indistinctiveness, sharplessness and grayness; whereas ambiguity can be attributed to nonspecificity, one-to-many relations, variety, generality, diversity and divergence. Using the nomenclature of structural reliability, vagueness and ambiguity can be accounted for in the form of realistic delineation of structural damage based on subjective judgment of engineers. For situations that require decisions under uncertainty with cost/benefit objectives, the risk of failure should depend on the underlying level of damage and the uncertainties associated with its definition. A mathematical model for structural reliability assessment that includes both ambiguity and vagueness types of uncertainty was suggested to result in the likelihood of failure over a damage spectrum. The resulting structural reliability estimates properly represent the continuous transition from serviceability to strength limit states over the ultimate time exposure of the structure. In this section, a structural reliability assessment method based on a fuzzy definition of failure is suggested to meet these practical needs. A failure definition can be developed to indicate the relationship between failure level and structural response. In this fuzzy model, a subjective index is introduced to represent all levels of damage (or failure). This index can be interpreted as either a measure of failure level or a measure of a degree of belief in the occurrence of some performance condition (e.g., failure). The index allows expressing the transition state between complete survival and complete failure for some structural response based on subjective evaluation and judgment.
Ayyub, Bilal M.↗
DEEPEN: Final 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano
Part of the DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology, detailed in the journal article below, is based on the method proposed by Poux & O'brien (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., (2022). For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗