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At least 379 records · Page 21

Estimation of canopy parameters for inhomogeneous vegetation canopies from reflectance data. II - Estimation of leaf area index and percentage of ground cover for row canopies

The canopy reflectance (CR) model for row-planted vegetation proposed earlier has been tested for soybean canopies in three different stages of growth and for corn canopies at early and full growth stages. The model fits the field-measured bidirectional CR data quite well. It is shown that, by inverting this model, one could estimate the leaf area index as well as the percentage of ground cover quite accurately from measured canopy reflectances.

Goel, N. S.↗

Statistical analysis of geodetic networks for detecting regional events

We present an application of hidden Markov models (HMMs) to analysis of geodetic time series in Southern California. Our model fitting method uses a regularized version of the deterministic annealing expectation-maximization algorithm to ensure that model solutions are both robust and of high quality.

geodetic networks↗

A Physical Model for a Slim Convective Dusty Disk in AGN

An accretion disk in an Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN) harbors and shields dust from external illumination. Our model shows that at the mid-plane of the disk around a MBH = 107M black hole, dust can exist at 0:1pc from the black hole, compared to 0.5pc outside of the disk where such self-shielding is constrained. We construct a physical model of a disk region approximately located between the radius of dust sublimation at the disk mid-plane and the radius at which dust sublimes at the disk surface. Our main conclusion is that for a wide range of model parameters such as local accretion rate and/or opacity, the accretion disk’s own radiation pressure on dust significantly influences its vertical structure. In this region convection plays important role in the vertical transport of energy. When the local accretion rate exceeds 2:5M yr the 10􀀀2pc-scale disk is super-critical with respect to dust opacity. Such a disk puffs up and transforms from geometrically thin to slim. Our model fits into the narrative of a "failed wind" scenario of Czerny & Hryniewicz (2011) and the "compact torus" model of Baskin & Laor (2018), incorporating them as variations of the radiative dusty disk model.

A Dorodnitsyn↗

Secondary eclipses of WASP-18b – near-infrared observations with the Anglo-Australian Telescope, the Magellan Clay Telescope and the LCOGT network

We present new eclipse observations for one of the hottest ‘hot Jupiters', WASP-18b, for which previously published data from HST WFC3 and Spitzer have led to radically conflicting conclusions about the composition of this planet’s atmosphere. We measure eclipse depths of 0.15 ± 0.02 per cent at Ks and 0.07 ± 0.01 per cent at z′ bands. Using the VSTAR line-by-line radiative transfer code and both these new observations with previously published data, we derive a new model of the planetary atmosphere. We have varied both the metallicity and C/O ratio in our modelling, and find no need for the extreme metallicity suggested by Sheppard et al. Our best-fitting models slightly underestimate the emission at z′ band and overestimate the observed flux at Ks-band. To explain these discrepancies, we examine the impact on the planetary emission spectrum of the presence of several types of hazes which could form on the night side of the planet. Our Ks-band eclipse flux measurement is lower than expected from clear atmosphere models and this could be explained by haze particles larger than 0.2 μm with the optical properties of Al2O3, CaTiO3 or MgSiO3. We find that z′-band measurements are important for understanding the contribution of photochemical hazes with particles smaller than 0.1 μm at the top of the atmosphere.

L. Kedziora-Chudczer↗

Traffic safety analysis and model updating for freeways using Bayesian method

Freeway crash prediction models are the basic of traffic safety research, yet crash occurrence and the influencing factors change over time. In order to make sure the implemented safety models fit the current traffic environment, this study conducts a comparative analysis of 2017 and 2020 datasets collected from freeways in Suzhou, China. Herein, considering the spatial correlation among analysis units and the hierarchical data structure, a Bayesian conditional autoregressive negative binomial (CAR-NB) model and a Bayesian hierarchical CAR-NB (HCAR-NB) model were used to explore the safety influencing factors, and a traditional NB model was developed for further comparison. To update the HCAR-NB model from 2017 to 2020, Bayesian inference with informative priors was used to improve its goodness of fit and efficiency. Preliminary results showed that 1) the HCAR-NB model outperformed the NB model and CAR-NB model in prediction accuracy, and 2) the number of crashes was significantly correlated with average speed, speed variance, road segment length, number of lanes, and presence of ramps. The potential for safety improvement (PSI) method was applied to the modeling results to identify hotspots for the two years. The results confirmed that the hotspots spatiotemporally shifted among the freeways. The proposed crash prediction model and updating method are expected to assist implementation of informed countermeasures for freeway safety improvement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The active CGCG 077-102 NED02 galaxy within the Abell 2063 galaxy cluster

Context.Within the framework of investigating the link between the central super massive black holes in the cores of galaxies and the galaxies themselves, we detected a variable X-ray source in the center of CGCG 077-102 NED02, which is a member of the CGCG 077-102 galaxy pair within the Abell 2063 cluster of galaxies. Aims.Our goal is to combine X-ray and optical data to demonstrate that this object harbors an active super massive black hole in its core, and to relate this to the dynamical status of the galaxy pair within the Abell 2063 cluster. Methods.We usedChandraandXMM-Newtonarchival data to derive the X-ray spectral shape and variability. We also obtained optical spectroscopy to detect the expected emission lines that are typically found in active galactic nuclei. Finally, we used public ZTF imaging data to investigate the optical variability. Results.There is no evidence of multiple X-ray sources or extended components within CGCG 077-102 NED02. Single X-ray spectral models fit the source well. We detect significant, nonrandom inter-observation 0.5–10 keV X-ray flux variabilities, for observations separated by ∼4 days for short-term variations and by up to ∼700 days for long-term variations. Optical spectroscopy points toward a passive galaxy for CGCG 077-102 NED01 and a Seyfert for CGCG 077-102 NED02. The classification of CGCG 077-102 NED02 is also consistent with its X-ray luminosity of over 10 42 erg s −1 . We do not detect short-term variability in the optical ZTF light curves. However, we find a significant long-term stochastic variability in theg-band that can be well described by the damped random walk model with a best-fit characteristic damping timescale ofτ DRW = 30 −12 +28 days. Finally, the CGCG 077-102 galaxy pair is deeply embedded within the Abell 2063 potential, with a long enough history within this massive structure to have been affected by the influence of this cluster for a long time. Conclusions.Our observations point toward a moderately massive black hole in the center of CGCG 077-102 NED02 of ∼10 6 M ⊙ . As compared to another similar pair in the literature, CGCG 077-102 NED02 is not heavily obscured, perhaps because of the surrounding intracluster medium ram-pressure stripping.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Blowout Jets: Hinode X-Ray Jets that Don't Fit the Standard Model

Nearly half of all H-alpha macrospicules in polar coronal holes appear to be miniature filament eruptions. This suggests that there is a large class of X-ray jets in which the jet-base magnetic arcade undergoes a blowout eruption as in a CME, instead of remaining static as in most solar X-ray jets, the standard jets that fit the model advocated by Shibata. Along with a cartoon depicting the standard model, we present a cartoon depicting the signatures expected of blowout jets in coronal X-ray images. From Hinode/XRT movies and STEREO/EUVI snapshots in polar coronal holes, we present examples of (1) X-ray jets that fit the standard model, and (2) X-ray jets that do not fit the standard model but do have features appropriate for blowout jets. These features are (1) a flare arcade inside the jet-base arcade in addition to the small flare arcade (bright point) outside that standard jets have, (2) a filament of cool (T is approximately 80,000K) plasma that erupts from the core of the jetbase arcade, and (3) an extra jet strand that should not be made by the reconnection for standard jets but could be made by reconnection between the ambient unipolar open field and the opposite-polarity leg of the filament-carrying flux-rope core field of the erupting jet-base arcade. We therefore infer that these non-standard jets are blowout jets, jets made by miniature versions of the sheared-core-arcade eruptions that make CMEs

Moore, Ronald L.↗

Measurement uncertainty of rossi-alpha neutron experiments

Rossi-alpha neutron experiments are used to estimate the prompt neutron decay constant of a fissile assembly, a quantity of widespread interest in applications including in nuclear nonproliferation and criticality safety. This work develops a mathematical model to efficiently estimate measurement uncertainty of Rossi-alpha neutron experiments inferred from a two-exponential fit model with histogram binning. The derived uncertainty estimates were validated using repeated Rossi-alpha measurements of a subcritical, 4.5-kg sphere of weapons-grade, alpha-phase plutonium with nickel, copper, tungsten, and polyethylene reflectors. The estimates of uncertainty for the histogram data produced by the model were conservative and agree with the reference uncertainties within noise. The estimates of the prompt neutron decay constant uncertainty agreed with the reference uncertainties within one standard deviation. In conclusion, the proposed model will reduce total measurement times, ultimately reducing operational and procedural costs in application.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Kinetic analysis of the interactions between calcium ferrite and coal char for chemical looping gasification applications: Identifying reduction routes and modes of oxygen transfer

Chemical Looping Gasification (CLG) is an emerging technology that shows promise for efficient coal gasification by eliminating the need for energy intensive gas separations to achieve a non-nitrogen diluted syngas stream. Oxygen from oxygen carriers, such as CaFe 2 O 4 , are used for coal gasification in place of conventionally produced gaseous oxygen from cryogenic separation of air. These oxygen carriers are unique for their ability to selectively oxidize coal to form syngas and show limited reactivity with syngas components (H 2 , CO). To gain a deeper understanding of how these unique oxygen carriers perform and to offer a first attempt at the reaction modeling of solid mediated interactions of this nature, this study was carried out to determine the kinetic parameters associated with the selective oxidation of coal derived char (Wyodak and Illinois #6) with a metal ferrite, CaFe 2 O 4 . Using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) coupled with mass spectrometry, the selective oxygen release of metal ferrite in the presence of char by proximal contact was examined. The application of combinatory model fitting approaches was used to describe controlling resistances during oxygen release. A combination of the modified shrinking core model (SCM) with planar oxygen ion diffusion control and reaction order based models was used for kinetic parameter determination. CaFe 2 O 4 particle size plays a major role in the prevailing mode of oxygen release. Particle sizes on the order of 40–50 μm tend to favor first order kinetically controlled regimes independent of geometric and diffusion controls. The probability for oxygen ion diffusion controlling regimes increased when the particle size range of the oxygen carrier was increased up to 350 μm. Char type also impacted the prevalence of the controlling regime. Higher ranked chars react in a slower manner, limiting the gradient for oxygen ion release from the oxygen carrier. Activation energies determined for this process range from 120–200kJ/mol and oxygen ion diffusion coefficients are on the order of 10-8 cm 2 /s. It is suggested that oxygen ion movement is regulated by lattice diffusion out of partially reduced phases (Ca 2 Fe 2 O 5 ) and through reduced outer layers composed of CaO and Fe. The controlled movement of oxygen ions influences the rate of carbon oxidation in the char and therefore the selectivity towards partial oxidation products, which are desirable in CLG applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A fusion relevant data-driven engineering void swelling model for 9Cr tempered martensitic steels

The UCSB database on cavity evolution in 9-12Cr tempered martensitic steels (TMS), includes the results for both dual heavy and helium ion (DII), and High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) in situ helium injection (ISHI) neutron irradiations at 500°C. These results were combined with literature single ion and fission neutron irradiation data to derive a model for the void volume fraction, f v , as a function of displacements per atom (dpa) and transmutant helium concentrations in atomic parts per million (appm). The scientific foundation for the paper is described in a companion paper entitled “Cavity Evolution and Void Swelling in Dual Ion Irradiated Tempered Martensitic Steels”. Here, in this study, we show that f v (dpa, He/dpa) is described by the incubation dose, dpa i , for the onset of void growth, and the post-incubation growth rate, f v ’(%/dpa). Both dpa i and f v ’ decrease with increasing He/dpa at > ~ 5. The dpa i is also lower for the ISHI neutron irradiations at the same He/dpa. Single heavy ion and fission reactor neutron irradiations, with low He/dpa ratios, have a much larger dpa i . Based on a combined analysis of DII, single ion, ISHI and fission neutron data, we further show that the post-incubation f v data analyzed here have a common empirical curve shape, with f v ’ reaching up to ~ 0.2%/dpa at very high dpa. We also show that f v ’ can be predicted based on a physical model of defect partitioning between evolving sinks. At 500°C and fusion relevant He/dpa ≈ 10, the best-fit model predicts nominal swelling, S = f v /(1-f v ), of ~ 1.1, 4.9 and 16% at 50, 100 and 200 dpa, respectively. The physically motivated, data-driven model includes estimated uncertainties for both dpa i and f v ’.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A novel invariant mass method to isolate resonance backgrounds from the chiral magnetic effect

The Chiral Magnetic Effect (CME) refers to charge separation along a strong magnetic field, due to topological charge fluctuations in QCD. Charge correlation (Δγ) signals consistent with CME have been first observed almost a decade ago. It has also been known since then that the Δγ is contaminated by a major background from resonance decays coupled with elliptic flow. In this contribution, we propose differential Δγ measurements as function of the pair invariant mass (m inv ). The Δγ in the high minv region is essentially free of resonance backgrounds. In the low m inv region, the Δγ backgrounds show resonance peaks. The CME signal, presumably smooth in m inv , may thus be extracted from a two-component model fit. We demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of this novel method by using the AMPT and toy-model Monte-Carlo simulations. We also discuss an application of the method in data analysis.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Universal tight binding model for chemical reactions in solution and at surfaces. III. Stoichiometric and reduced surfaces of titania and the adsorption of water

We demonstrate a model for stoichiometric and reduced titanium dioxide intended for use in molecular dynamics and other atomistic simulations and based in the polarizable ion tight binding theory. This extends the model introduced in two previous papers from molecular and liquid applications into the solid state, thus completing the task of providing a comprehensive and unified scheme for studying chemical reactions, particularly aimed at problems in catalysis and electrochemistry. As before, experimental results are given priority over theoretical ones in selecting targets for model fitting, for which we used crystal parameters and band gaps of titania bulk polymorphs, rutile and anatase. The model is applied to six low index titania surfaces, with and without oxygen vacancies and adsorbed water molecules, both in dissociated and non-dissociated states. Finally, we present the results of molecular dynamics simulation of an anatase cluster with a number of adsorbed water molecules and discuss the role of edge and corner atoms of the cluster.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Isotherm Modeling and Techno-Economic Analysis of Contactor Technologies for New Tetraamine-Appended MOF for NGCC Applications

Recently, a family of tetraamine-functionalized metal-organic frameworks (MOF) has been reported as promising sorbent materials for capturing CO2 from flue gas conditions relevant to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) applications. The main advantages of these materials are their two-step cooperative CO2 adsorption, which gives rise to unusual two step-shaped CO2 adsorption profiles and their high thermal stability. This work presents the modelling of the two-transition isotherm of the tetraamine-appended MOF, N,N'-bis(3-aminopropyl)-1,4-diaminobutane (3-4-3)-appended Mg2(dobpdc), and the techno-economic analysis (TEA) of carbon capture processes utilizing this sorbent. Due to the unusual isotherm shapes of the experimental CO2 adsorption data for tetraamine-appended Mg2(dobpdc) and the strong nonlinearity of CO2 loading with respect to temperature and pressure, we tested two different models which use logistic functions for representing the different isotherm behaviors in the different pressure ranges. The first model uses the quadratic isotherm model in the low-pressure region, the Langmuir isotherm model in the middle pressure range, and the dual site Langmuir isotherm model in the high-pressure range. To model the transition between regions we used the arctangent functions independent of temperature and the thermal effect was accounted by using the Clausius-Clapeyron relation]. The second model is an extension of the weighted dual-site Langmuir isotherm model presented by Hughes et al.. In this extended model, the dual-site Langmuir isotherm is employed in the three transition regions, using temperature-dependent logistic functions to activate or deactivate the isotherm model in the low, middle, and high-pressure ranges. Both models fit the experimental data quite well with root mean squared errors (RMSE’s) of 0.41 and 0.17 for model 1 and model 2, respectively. Since model 2 resulted in a lower RMSE, it was leveraged for the development of the gas/solid contactor models used by the TEA. Specifically, two different contactor models, an axial-flow fixed bed and moving bed contactor, were developed as part of this work. These models are dynamic, pressure-driven, and consist of mass, energy, and momentum conservation equations. A kinetic model was also developed by performing parameter estimation using experimental fixed bed breakthrough data. These models are then used to simulate CO2 capture processes from the flue gas generated from a ~600 gross MW NGCC power plant. A cost model was developed which considers the capital cost of the reactors and the significant operating costs such as steam and electricity. Using NETL’s Framework for the Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty of Uncertainty and Surrogates tool (FOQUS), which has the capability of linking models built using numerous modelling platforms with derivative-free optimization solvers, a techno-economic optimization of the carbon capture processes was performed which minimizes the cost of capture.

Caballero, Daison↗

Capturing the 3D motion of an infalling galaxy via fluid dynamics

The Fornax Cluster is the nearest (⩽20 Mpc) galaxy cluster in the southern sky. NGC 1404 is a bright elliptical galaxy falling through the intracluster medium (ICM) of the Fornax Cluster. The sharp leading edge of NGC 1404 forms a classical “cold front” that separates 0.6 keV dense interstellar medium and 1.5 keV diffuse ICM. We measure the angular pressure variation along the cold front using a very deep (670 ks) Chandra X-ray observation. We are taking the classical approach—using stagnation pressure to determine a substructure’s speed—to the next level by not only deriving a general speed but also directionality, which yields the complete velocity field as well as the distance of the substructure directly from the pressure distribution. We find a hydrodynamic model consistent with the pressure jump along NGC 1404's atmosphere measured in multiple directions. The best-fit model gives an inclination of 33° and a Mach number of 1.3 for the infall of NGC 1404, in agreement with complementary measurements of the motion of NGC 1404. Our study demonstrates the successful treatment of a highly ionized ICM as ideal fluid flow, in support of the hypothesis that magnetic pressure is not dynamically important over most of the virial region of galaxy clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On the Response of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager to the Marine Environment: Implications for Atmospheric Parameter Retrievals

A reasonably rigorous basis for understanding and extracting the physical information content of Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) satellite images of the marine environment is provided. To this end, a comprehensive algebraic parameterization is developed for the response of the SSM/I to a set of nine atmospheric and ocean surface parameters. The brightness temperature model includes a closed-form approximation to microwave radiative transfer in a non-scattering atmosphere and fitted models for surface emission and scattering based on geometric optics calculations for the roughened sea surface. The combined model is empirically tuned using suitable sets of SSM/I data and coincident surface observations. The brightness temperature model is then used to examine the sensitivity of the SSM/I to realistic variations in the scene being observed and to evaluate the theoretical maximum precision of global SSM/I retrievals of integrated water vapor, integrated cloud liquid water, and surface wind speed. A general minimum-variance method for optimally retrieving geophysical parameters from multichannel brightness temperature measurements is outlined, and several global statistical constraints of the type required by this method are computed. Finally, a unified set of efficient statistical and semi-physical algorithms is presented for obtaining fields of surface wind speed, integrated water vapor, cloud liquid water, and precipitation from SSM/I brightness temperature data. Features include: a semi-physical method for retrieving integrated cloud liquid water at 15 km resolution and with rms errors as small as approximately 0.02 kg/sq m; a 3-channel statistical algorithm for integrated water vapor which was constructed so as to have improved linear response to water vapor and reduced sensitivity to precipitation; and two complementary indices of precipitation activity (based on 37 GHz attenuation and 85 GHz scattering, respectively), each of which are relatively insensitive to variations in other environmental parameters.

Petty, Grant W.↗

Transport and Growth Kinetics in Microgravity Protein Crystal Growth

The dynamic coupling between mass transport and incorporation of growth units into the surface of a crystal growing from solution in microgravity is used to derive quantitative information on the crystal growth kinetics. To this end, new procedures for experiment preparation, interferometric data processing and model fitting have been developed. The use of experimental data from the bulk diffusive maw transport together with a model for steady state stagnant crystal growth allows the detailed quantitative understanding of the kinetics of both the concentration depletion zone around the crystal and the growth of the crystal interface. The protein crystal used in the experiment is shown to be growing in the mixed kinetic regime (0.2 x 10(exp -6) centimeters per second less than beta R/D less than 0.9 x 10(exp -6) centimeters per second).

Otalora, F.↗

Coulomb Stress Accumulation along the San Andreas Fault System

Stress accumulation rates along the primary segments of the San Andreas Fault system are computed using a three-dimensional (3-D) elastic half-space model with realistic fault geometry. The model is developed in the Fourier domain by solving for the response of an elastic half-space due to a point vector body force and analytically integrating the force from a locking depth to infinite depth. This approach is then applied to the San Andreas Fault system using published slip rates along 18 major fault strands of the fault zone. GPS-derived horizontal velocity measurements spanning the entire 1700 x 200 km region are then used to solve for apparent locking depth along each primary fault segment. This simple model fits remarkably well (2.43 mm/yr RMS misfit), although some discrepancies occur in the Eastern California Shear Zone. The model also predicts vertical uplift and subsidence rates that are in agreement with independent geologic and geodetic estimates. In addition, shear and normal stresses along the major fault strands are used to compute Coulomb stress accumulation rate. As a result, we find earthquake recurrence intervals along the San Andreas Fault system to be inversely proportional to Coulomb stress accumulation rate, in agreement with typical coseismic stress drops of 1 - 10 MPa. This 3-D deformation model can ultimately be extended to include both time-dependent forcing and viscoelastic response.

Smith, Bridget↗

Regression Analysis of Long-term Profile Ozone Data Set from BUV Instruments

We have produced a profile merged ozone data set (MOD) based on the SBUV/SBUV2 series of nadir-viewing satellite backscatter instruments, covering the period from November 1978 - December 2003. In 2004, data from the Nimbus 7 SBUV and NOAA 9,11, and 16 SBUV/2 instruments were reprocessed using the Version 8 (V8) algorithm and most recent calibrations. More recently, data from the Nimbus 4 BUV instrument, which operated from 1970 - 1977, were also reprocessed using the V8 algorithm. As part of the V8 profile calibration, the Nimbus 7 and NOAA 9 (1993-1997 only) instrument calibrations have been adjusted to match the NOAA 11 calibration, which was established from comparisons with SSBUV shuttle flight data. Given the level of agreement between the data sets, we simply average the ozone values during periods of instrument overlap to produce the MOD profile data set. We use statistical time-series analysis of the MOD profile data set (1978-2003) to estimate the change in profile ozone due to changing stratospheric chlorine levels. The Nimbus 4 BUV data offer an opportunity to test the physical properties of our statistical model. We extrapolate our statistical model fit backwards in time and compare to the Nimbus 4 data. We compare the statistics of the residuals from the fit for the Nimbus 4 period to those obtained from the 1978-2003 period over which the statistical model coefficients were estimated.

Frith, Stacey↗