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NASA NTRS2019

initMIP-Antarctica: an Ice Sheet Model Initialization Experiment of ISMIP6

Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

ice sheet model↗
NASA NTRS1995

Utilization of UARS Data in Validation of Photochemical and Dynamical Mechanism in Stratospheric Models

We proposed model-data intercomparison studies for UARS data. In the past three months, we have been working on constructing analysis tools to diagnose the UARS data. The 'Trajectory mapping' technique, which was developed by Morris (1994), is adaptable to generate synoptic maps of trace gas data from asynoptic observations. An in-house trajectory model (kinematic methods following Merrill et al., 1986 and Pickering et al., 1994) has been developed in AER under contract with NASA/ACMAP and the trajectory mapping tool has been applied to analyze UARS measurement.

Rodriquez, Jose M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comprehensive stellar population models and the disentanglement of age and metallicity effects

The construction of detailed models for intermediate and old stellar populations is described. Input parameters include metallicity (-2 less than (Fe/H) less than 0.5), single-burst age (between 1.5 and 17 Gyr), and initial mass function (IMF) exponent. Quantities output include broadband magnitudes, spectral energy distributions, surface brightness fluctuation magnitudes, and a suite of 21 absorption feature indices. The models are checked against a wide variety of available observations. Examinations of model output yield the following conclusions. (1) If the percentage change delta age/delta Z approximately equals 3/2 for two populations, they will appear almost identical in most indices. A few indices break this degeneracy by being either more abundance sensitive (Fe4668, Fe5015, Fe5709, and Fe5782) or more age sensitive (G4300, H beta, and presumably higher order Balmer lines) than usual. (2) Present uncertainties in stellar evolution are of the same magnitude as the effects of IMF and Y in the indices studied. (3) Changes in abundance ratios (like (Mg/Fe)) are predicted to be readily apparent in the spectra of old stellar populations. (4) The I-band flux of a stellar population is predicted to be nearly independent of metallicity and only modestly sensitive to age. The I band is therefore recommended for standard candle work or studies of M/L in galaxies. Other conclusions stem from this work. (1) Intercomparison of models and observations of two TiO indices seem to indicate variation of the (V/Ti) ratio among galaxies, but it is not clear how this observation ties into the standard picture of chemical enrichment. (2) Current estimates of (Fe/H) for the most metal-rich globulars that are based on integrated indices are probably slightly too high. (3) Colors of population models from different authors exhibit a substantial range. At solar metallicity and 13 Gyr, this range corresponds to an age error of roughly +/- 7 Gyr. Model colors from different authors applied in a differential sense have smaller uncertainties. (4) In the present models the dominant error for colors is probably the transformation from stellar atmospheric parameters to stellar colors. (5) Stellar B - V is difficult to model, and current spreads among different authors can reach 0.2 mag. (6) If known defects in the stellar flux library are corrected, the population model colors of this work in passbands redder than U would be accurate to roughly 0.03 mag in an absolute sense. These corrections are not made in the tables of model output.

Worthey, Guy↗
NASA NTRS1984

Comparison of ozone data derived from SBUV and SAGE with emphasis on longitudinal variations

Stratospheric ozone observations performed by the SBAV and SAGE satellite instruments in March and April 1979 are analyzed and compared to other data, where available; in the absence of ground-truth data the experimental uncertainties are modeled by intercomparison of the measurements. The signal-to-noise ratios for the detectability of longitudinal variation in ozone are estimated for both SBUV and SAGE instruments. The analysis of longitudinal variation data reveals significant differences in amplitudes obtained in individual events in which rapid amplitude changes with height were present. Finally, a systematic overestimation of ozone by 20 percent by the SAGE instrument and underestimation by SBUV by about 15 percent at 50-70 latitudes at 10 mb is noted.

Cunnold, D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Tables and intercomparisons of evolutionary sequences of models for massive stars

Tables of evolutionary sequences of models for massive stars have been prepared for a variety of physical input parameters that are normally treated as free. These parameters include the interior convective mixing scheme, the mixing length in the outer convective envelope, the rate of stellar-wind mass loss, the initial stellar mass, and the initial chemical composition. Ranges of specified initial mass and initial chemical composition are M = 10-120 solar masses, Xe = 0.602-0.739, and Ze = 0.021-0.044. The tables cover evolution of the star from the ZAMS to either the end of core H burning or the end of core He burning. Differences among the evolutionary tracks are illustrated primarily in terms of the interior mixing scheme, since the amount and timing of stellar wind mass loss are still very uncertain for initial masses above about 30 solar masses.

Chin, Chao-Wen↗
NASA NTRS1992

Estimation of surface heat and moisture fluxes over a prairie grassland. II - Two-dimensional time filtering and site variability

The behavior of in situ measurements of surface fluxes obtained during FIFE 1987 is examined by using correlative and spectral techniques in order to assess the significance of fluctuations on various time scales, from subdiurnal up to synoptic, intraseasonal, and annual scales. The objectives of this analysis are: (1) to determine which temporal scales have a significant impact on areal averaged fluxes and (2) to design a procedure for filtering an extended flux time series that preserves the basic diurnal features and longer time scales while removing high frequency noise that cannot be attributed to site-induced variation. These objectives are accomplished through the use of a two-dimensional cross-time Fourier transform, which serves to separate processes inherently related to diurnal and subdiurnal variability from those which impact flux variations on the longer time scales. A filtering procedure is desirable before the measurements are utilized as input with an experimental biosphere model, to insure that model based intercomparisons at multiple sites are uncontaminated by input variance not related to true site behavior. Analysis of the spectral decomposition indicates that subdiurnal time scales having periods shorter than 6 hours have little site-to-site consistency and therefore little impact on areal integrated fluxes.

Crosson, William L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Utilization of UARS Data in Validation of Photochemical and Dynamical Mechanism in Stratospheric Models

UARS data sets provide global coverage for the distributions of trace gases, which gives us an excellent chance to utilize the data set for model-data intercomparison studies. In the past three months, we have been working on the comparisons of the UARS data between 1992 (a half year after the Pinatubo eruption) and 1993 (one and a half year after the eruption) in an attempt to see how the Pinatubo volcanic eruption may have impacted stratospheric chemistry.

Rodriquez, Jose M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Chemical Data Assimilation: A Case Study of Solar Occultation Data From the Atlas 1 Mission of the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy Experiment

A key advantage of using data assimilation is the propagation of information from data-rich regions to data-poor regions, which is particularly relevant to the use of solar occultation data such as from ATMOS. For the first time an in depth uncertainty analyses is included in a photochemical model-data intercomparison including observation, representativeness, and theoretical uncertainty. Chemical data assimilation of solar occultation measurements can be used to reconstruct full diurnal cycles and to evaluate their chemical self-consistency. This paper considers as an example the measurements made by the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy Experiment (ATMOS) instrument Atlas-1 during March 1992 for a vertical profile flow tracking coordinates at an equivalent PV latitude of 38 S. ATMOS was chosen because it simultaneously observes several species. This equivalent PV latitude was chosen as it was where ATMOS n observed the atmosphere's composition over the largest range of altitudes. A single vertical profile was used so that the detailed diurnal information that assimilation utilizes could be highlighted. There is generally good self-consistency between the ATMOS Atlas-1 observations and photochemical theory.

Lary, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Assessment of Southern Ocean Water Masses and Sea Ice During 1988-2007 in a Suite of Interannual CORE-II Simulations

We characterise the representation of the Southern Ocean water mass structure and sea ice within a suite of 15 global ocean-ice models run with the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) protocol. The main focus is the representation of the present (1988-2007) mode and intermediate waters, thus framing an analysis of winter and summer mixed layer depths; temperature, salinity, and potential vorticity structure; and temporal variability of sea ice distributions. We also consider the interannual variability over the same 20 year period. Comparisons are made between models as well as to observation-based analyses where available. The CORE-II models exhibit several biases relative to Southern Ocean observations, including an underestimation of the model mean mixed layer depths of mode and intermediate water masses in March (associated with greater ocean surface heat gain), and an overestimation in September (associated with greater high latitude ocean heat loss and a more northward winter sea-ice extent). In addition, the models have cold and fresh/warm and salty water column biases centred near 50 deg S. Over the 1988-2007 period, the CORE-II models consistently simulate spatially variable trends in sea-ice concentration, surface freshwater fluxes, mixed layer depths, and 200-700 m ocean heat content. In particular, sea-ice coverage around most of the Antarctic continental shelf is reduced, leading to a cooling and freshening of the near surface waters. The shoaling of the mixed layer is associated with increased surface buoyancy gain, except in the Pacific where sea ice is also influential. The models are in disagreement, despite the common CORE-II atmospheric state, in their spatial pattern of the 20-year trends in the mixed layer depth and sea-ice.

Sea ice↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of the Validated Soil Moisture Product from the SMAP Radiometer

NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission launched on January 31, 2015 into a sun-synchronous 6 am/6 pm orbit with an objective to produce global mapping of high-resolution soil moisture and freeze-thaw state every 2-3 days using an L-band (active) radar and an L-band (passive) radiometer. The SMAP radiometer began acquiring routine science data on March 31, 2015 and continues to operate nominally. SMAP's radiometer-derived soil moisture product (L2_SM_P) provides soil moisture estimates posted on a 36 km fixed Earth grid using brightness temperature observations from descending (6 am) passes and ancillary data. A beta quality version of L2_SM_P was released to the public in September, 2015, with the fully validated L2_SM_P soil moisture data expected to be released in May, 2016. Additional improvements (including optimization of retrieval algorithm parameters and upscaling approaches) and methodology expansions (including increasing the number of core sites, model-based intercomparisons, and results from several intensive field campaigns) are anticipated in moving from accuracy assessment of the beta quality data to an evaluation of the fully validated L2_SM_P data product.

Ocean Salinity↗
NASA NTRS2019

Large-Scale Transport into the Arctic: The Roles of the Midlatitude Jet and the Hadley Cell

Transport from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes to the Arctic plays a crucial role in determining the abundance of trace gases and aerosols that are important to Arctic climate via impacts on radiation and chemistry. Here we examine this transport using an idealized tracer with a fixed lifetime and predominantly midlatitude land-based sources in models participating in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). We show that there is a 25%-45% difference in the Arctic concentrations of this tracer among the models. This spread is correlated with the spread in the location of the Pacific jet, as well as the spread in the location of the Hadley Cell (HC) edge, which varies consistently with jet latitude. Our results suggest that it is likely that the HC-related zonal-mean meridional transport rather than the jet-related eddy mixing is the major contributor to the inter-model spread in the transport of land-based tracers into the Arctic. Specifically, in models with a more northern jet, the HC generally extends further north and the tracer source region is mostly covered by surface southward flow associated with the lower branch of the HC, resulting in less efficient transport poleward to the Arctic. During boreal summer, there are poleward biases in jet location in free-running models, and these models likely underestimate the rate of transport into the Arctic. Models using specified dynamics do not have biases in the jet location, but do have biases in the surface meridional flow, which may result in differences in transport into the Arctic. In addition to the land-based tracer, the midlatitude-to-Arctic transport is further examined by another idealized tracer with zonally uniform sources. With equal sources from both land and ocean, the inter-model spread of this zonally uniform tracer is more related to variations in parameterized convection over oceans rather than variations in HC extent, particularly during boreal winter. This suggests that transport of land-based and oceanic tracers or aerosols towards the Arctic differs in pathways and therefore their corresponding inter-model variabilities result from different physical processes.

chemistry climate models↗
NASA NTRS2020

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi‐arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi‐arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in‐season soil water content from 2‐year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.

Crop simulation model↗
NASA NTRS2020

Intercomparison of surface meltwater routing models for the Greenland ice sheet and influence on subglacial effective pressures

Each summer, large volumes of surface meltwater drain off the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface through moulins to the bed, impacting subglacial hydrology and ice flow dynamics. Supraglacial surface routing delays may propagate to englacial and subglacial hydrologic systems, requiring accurate assessment to correctly estimate subglacial effective pressures. We compare hourly supraglacial moulin discharge simulations from three surface meltwater routing models – the synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH), the bare-ice component of surface routing and lake filling (SRLF), and the rescaled width function (RWF) – for four internally drained catchments on the southwestern Greenland ice sheet surface. The routing models are forced identically using surface runoff from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale regional climate model (RCM). For each catchment, simulated moulin hydrographs are input to the SHAKTI subglacial hydrologic model to simulate diurnally varying subglacial effective-pressure variations in the vicinity of a single moulin. Overall, all three routing models produce more realistic moulin discharges than simply using RCM runoff outputs without surface routing but produce significant differences in peak moulin discharge and time to peak. In particular, the RWF yields later, smaller peak moulin discharges than the SUH or SRLF due to its representation of slow interfluve flow between supraglacial meltwater channels, and it can readily accommodate the seasonal evolution of supraglacial stream and river networks. Differences among the three routing models are reflected in a series of simple idealized subglacial hydrology simulations that yield different diurnal effective-pressure amplitudes; however, the supraglacial hydrologic system acts as short-term storage for surface meltwater, and the temporal mean effective pressure is relatively consistent across routing models.

Kang Yang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrated National and Regional Agricultural Planning with AgMIP Tools and Methods

AgMIP, through its unique integration of multi-modeling approaches with stakeholder engagement, has advanced co-development of decision support tools and adaptation strategies in the face of climate change and other shocks (especially COVID-19). This has helped generate actionable information for adaptation planning processes in developing countries. Local-to-national stakeholders and decision-makers appreciate the research-informed stakeholder dialogue as very helpful in identifying research and policy gaps. These motivate concise recommendations for productivity-enhancing, environmentally sound technologies, and inclusive development approaches. Furthermore, these stakeholder dialogues help bridge the gaps between policy, research, and adaptation strategies, especially for low-input smallholder farming systems.

Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement↗
NASA NTRS1997

Comparison of N2O Emissions from Soils at Three Temperate Agricultural Sites

Nitrous oxide (N2O) flux simulations by four models were compared with year-round field measurements from five temperate agricultural sites in three countries. The field sites included an unfertilized, semi-arid rangeland with low N2O fluxes in eastern Colorado, USA; two fertilizer treatments (urea and nitrate) on a fertilized grass ley cut for silage in Scotland; and two fertilized, cultivated crop fields in Germany where N2O loss during the winter was quite high. The models used were daily trace gas versions of the CENTURY model, DNDC, ExpertN, and the NASA-Ames version of the CASA model. These models included similar components (soil physics, decomposition, plant growth, and nitrogen transformations), but in some cases used very different algorithms for these processes. All models generated similar results for the general cycling of nitrogen through the agro-ecosystems, but simulated nitrogen trace gas fluxes were quite different. In most cases the simulated N20 fluxes were within a factor of about 2 of the observed annual fluxes, but even when models produced similar N2O fluxes they often produced very different estimates of gaseous N loss as nitric oxide (NO), dinitrogen (N2), and ammonia (NH3). Accurate simulation of soil moisture appears to be a key requirement for reliable simulation of N2O emissions. All models simulated the general pattern of low background fluxes with high fluxes following fertilization at the Scottish sites, but they could not (or were not designed to) accurately capture the observed effects of different fertilizer types on N2O flux. None of the models were able to reliably generate large pulses of N2O during brief winter thaws that were observed at the two German sites. All models except DNDC simulated very low N2O fluxes for the dry site in Colorado. The US Trace Gas Network (TRAGNET) has provided a mechanism for this model and site intercomparison. Additional intercomparisons are needed with these and other models and additional data sets; these should include both tropical agro-ecosystems and new agricultural management techniques designed for sustainability.

Frolking, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

ARM/GCSS/SPARC TWP-ICE CRM Intercomparison Study

Specifications are provided for running a cloud-resolving model (CRM) and submitting results in a standardized format for inclusion in a n intercomparison study and archiving for public access. The simulated case study is based on measurements obtained during the 2006 Tropical Warm Pool - International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) led by the U. S. department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. The modeling intercomparison study is based on objectives developed in concert with the Stratospheric Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) program and the GEWEX cloud system study (GCSS) program. The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) is a core project of the World Climate Research PRogramme (WCRP).

Fridlind, Ann↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Interplay Between Transpiration and Runoff Formulations in Land Surface Schemes Used with Atmospheric Models

The Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) has shown that different land surface models (LSMS) driven by the same meteorological forcing can produce markedly different surface energy and water budgets, even when certain critical aspects of the LSMs (vegetation cover, albedo, turbulent drag coefficient, and snow cover) are carefully controlled. To help explain these differences, the authors devised a monthly water balance model that successfully reproduces the annual and seasonal water balances of the different PILPS schemes. Analysis of this model leads to the identification of two quantities that characterize an LSM's formulation of soil water balance dynamics: (1) the efficiency of the soil's evaporation sink integrated over the active soil moisture range, and (2) the fraction of this range over which runoff is generated. Regardless of the LSM's complexity, the combination of these two derived parameters with rates of interception loss, potential evaporation, and precipitation provides a reasonable estimate for the LSM's simulated annual water balance. The two derived parameters shed light on how evaporation and runoff formulations interact in an LSM, and the analysis as a whole underscores the need for compatibility in these formulations.

Koster, Rindal D.↗