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NASA NTRS2009

Validation of Model Forecasts of the Ambient Solar Wind

Independent and automated validation is a vital step in the progression of models from the research community into operational forecasting use. In this paper we describe a program in development at the CCMC to provide just such a comprehensive validation for models of the ambient solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We have built upon previous efforts published in the community, sharpened their definitions, and completed a baseline study. We also provide first results from this program of the comparative performance of the MHD models available at the CCMC against that of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. An important goal of this effort is to provide a consistent validation to all available models. Clearly exposing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different models will enable forecasters to craft more reliable ensemble forecasting strategies. Models of the ambient solar wind are developing rapidly as a result of improvements in data supply, numerical techniques, and computing resources. It is anticipated that in the next five to ten years, the MHD based models will supplant semi-empirical potential based models such as the WSA model, as the best available forecast models. We anticipate that this validation effort will track this evolution and so assist policy makers in gauging the value of past and future investment in modeling support.

Macneice, P. J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Real-World Distribution System Modeling Framework for Transmission-and-Distribution Cosimulation: Preprint

This paper presents a modeling methodology for realistic distribution system simulation and analysis. The methodology involves three major approaches: utility model conversion, feeder load modeling, and feeder model validation. The feeder models obtained from the utility are converted to the format that is more flexible for analysis and algorithm development. The load profiles down to each node are modeled in detail using advanced metering infrastructure data and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system measured load data. Then the distribution system models are validated by comparing the simulated feeder-head voltage results and SCADA measured voltage data. To better understand the bulk system operations and the interactions between transmission and distribution systems, the modeled realistic distribution systems are integrated into a transmission-and-distribution cosimulation framework to perform the system simulation from the bulk system down to each node in the distribution system.

load modeling↗

NASA NTRS2022

Advancing Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting

With growing interest from the aviation and satellite industries, and for NASA’s upcoming Artemis lunar missions, the need for improved scientific understanding and accurate forecasting of solar energetic particle events has never been stronger. In this paper we discuss the observational, validation and model transition support required to achieve these goals. Well-calibrated, high-quality energetic electron, proton, and ion measurements are essential. Expansions to the fields of view offered by current X-ray, extreme ultraviolet and coronagraph instruments, to obtain increased coverage of the solar corona and heliosphere, from vantage points off the Sun-Earth line, are desired for model input. New observations of suprathermal particles are needed to characterize seed particle distributions and low latency space-based observations of solar radio emissions are also desired. Together, this observational suite should offer high cadence, low latency, reliable and accurate space weather data streams. Consistent, extensive and quantitative model validation is required to assess scientific advancements and pave the way for models transitioning to real-time forecast operations. Model performance and skill should be compared to observations and to current operational forecasting baselines. Finally, resources are required to support the significant effort of transitioning mature models into forecast operations.

solar energetic particles↗

DOE OSTI2020

Experimentally Validated Computational Modeling of Creep and Creep-Cracking for Nuclear Concrete Structures

In a Nuclear Power Plant, one of the most important components is the concrete nuclear reactor cavity, which serves both a structural and protective function as the biological radiation shield. Given that creep has been identified as a major knowledge gap in the assessment of nuclear structures (NUREG/CR-7153), this work helps to further the understanding of creep behavior of massive concrete containment structures for decades to enable safe and long-term operation of these facilities. This project has developed a robust, experimentally validated model to predict creep in nuclear concrete structures for up 60 years using short-term creep data thereby enabling a longer service life of critical facilities and early detection of structural failure. The work presented in this report is a pairing of computational and experimental methods. For the first time, the time temperature superposition (TTS) principle was successfully used to generate a uniaxial creep compliance master curve to predict mortar creep response for up to 22,500 days (nearly 60 years) at a reference temperature of 20°C. These data were used as input into finite element analysis (FEA) codes that use highly realistic random, 3D concrete microstructures from reconstructed coarse limestone aggregates. Finite element analysis performed provides the ability to quickly upscale mortar viscoelastic behavior to long-term concrete creep/relaxation data. A master creep compliance curve, constructed from the TTS principle, spanning 27 years, was used to validate two and a half decades of simulated concrete creep. Concurrently, three different simulated wall specimens were designed to mimic the behavior of post-tensioned concrete nuclear containment facility vessel walls over time as a result of concrete creep. The specimens were designed with different thicknesses, transverse and longitudinal reinforcement ratios, and level of post-tensioning stress. Each specimen contained various instrumentation to measure internal concrete temperature, concrete strain, and post-tensioning strain hourly for over 3 years. The concrete creep model developed in this project, based on the FEA concrete simulations, was applied to simulate the structural-scale experiments of prestressed concrete walls conducted in this project using the Grizzly code. These models can represent the effects of reinforcing and prestressing. Although there are some discrepancies with the experimental data, the model can predict the overall trends of the creep response in these experiments. One of these experimental models was also applied to an extended time to demonstrate how the findings from this study can be used to predict the behavior of actual structures of interest that have been in service for extended periods of time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and Validation of a Residential Multi-Functional Variable Refrigerant Flow Heat Pump System with Heat Recovery

To bridge the existing gap in modeling the variable refrigerant flow heat pump systems with heat recovery (VRFHR), we developed a suite of dynamic VRFHR system models in Modelica. These models are specifically tailored for residential multi-functional VRFHR (MF-VRFHR) applications, including space conditioning and domestic hot water (DHW) heating, utilizing both the TIL library for HVAC equipment and the Buildings library for thermal load calculations. The development comprises essential component models, including the newly developed heat recovery unit (HRU), along with system models that integrate the heat pump system and building envelope. These system models accommodate various operational modes such as heating-only, cooling-only, and heating-recovery (including heating-dominant and cooling-dominant) modes. Furthermore, we propose an efficient optimization-based model calibration method that identifies critical model parameters while utilizing a small amount of data obtained from either real systems or manufacturer's specifications. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these models and the proposed calibration method for a MF-VRFHR system installed in Richland, WA. The developed models are calibrated and validated using data collected under different operational modes during both heating and cooling seasons. The results show that the models capture the system dynamics and achieve high accuracy, with the coefficient of the variation of the root-mean-square-error less than 15% for variables such as outdoor unit power consumption, compressor speed, space temperature and DHW temperature. The validated models serve as a reliable representation of the MF-VRFHR system, facilitating the development and validation of optimized controls needed to realize the full benefits of integrated heat pump systems. Future research will utilize these models to develop advanced controls and optimize system performance for improved energy efficiency and demand flexibility.

Modeling, Variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems,↗

DOE OSTI2018

Recommendations for Next-Generation Ground Magnetic Perturbation Validation

Data-model validation of ground magnetic perturbation forecasts, specifically of the time rate of change of surface magnetic field, dB/dt, is a critical task for model development and for mitigation of geomagnetically induced current effects. While a current, community-accepted standard for dB/dt validation exists (Pulkkinen et al., 2013), it has several limitations that prevent more complete understanding of model capability. This work presents recommendations from the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment Ground Magnetic Perturbation Working Team for creating a next-generation validation suite. Four recommendations are made to address the existing suite: greatly expand the number of ground observatories used, expand the number of events included in the suite from six to eight, generate metrics as a function of magnetic local time, and generate metrics as a function of activity type. For each of these, implementation details are explored. Limitations and future considerations are also discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗

NASA NTRS2003

Pulsed Inductive Thruster (PIT): Modeling and Validation Using the MACH2 Code

Numerical modeling of the Pulsed Inductive Thruster exercising the magnetohydrodynamics code, MACH2 aims to provide bilateral validation of the thruster's measured performance and the code's capability of capturing the pertinent physical processes. Computed impulse values for helium and argon propellants demonstrate excellent correlation to the experimental data for a range of energy levels and propellant-mass values. The effects of the vacuum tank wall and massinjection scheme were investigated to show trivial changes in the overall performance. An idealized model for these energy levels and propellants deduces that the energy expended to the internal energy modes and plasma dissipation processes is independent of the propellant type, mass, and energy level.

Schneider, Steven↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Flight Dynamics Risk Assessment of Artemis I

With launch vehicles and spacecraft, it is necessary to dynamically test the structure to validate structural models. These validated models are then used to determine a launch vehicle's control stability margin and the loads on the structure. While often a dedicated structural test article is used to correlate the integrated structure in preparation for the final analysis cycles, the Artemis I flight is using an approach where the components of the launch vehicle are dynamically tested and the component models validated. The fully integrated vehicle is not tested until a few months before launch, which limits the ability to fully correlate a model prior to launch. This paper introduces the Flight Dynamics Risk Assessment of the vehicle, which is the process being used to determine the adequacy of the vehicle structural model after the Integrated Modal Test. This work outlines the process of quickly tuning a model post-test then determining any control margin violations and increases in loads due to that tuned model.

Eric C Stewart↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Flight Dynamics Risk Assessment of Artemis I

Eric C Stewart↗

DOE OSTI2018

Fluid–Solid Coupling Simulation on the Temperature Distribution of Tuyere Used for Oxygen Bottom Blowing Converter

For an oxygen bottom blowing converter, a high-temperature fire spot zone forms above the tuyere owing to oxygen reaction. The bottom blowing tuyere and surrounding brick are simultaneously heated by high-temperature fire spot and flowing molten steel. High-speed fluids flowing in the inner tube and the annular gap of the tuyere can remove part of the heat transferred from the fire spot zone and molten steel, playing a vital role in cooling the tuyere. To determine the temperature distributions of the tuyere and surrounding brick under the condition of oxygen bottom blowing, a fluid–solid coupling heat transfer numerical model that considers both the radiation of the fire spot and convection of the molten steel was established in this study. The simulation results agree well with previous experimental results; thus, the numerical model was validated. Utilizing the validated model, the influences of the tuyere inner tube material and fire spot zone temperature on the tuyere temperature distribution were studied in detail. Along with an increase in the material thermal conductivity, the maximum temperature of the inner tube at the hot face decreased, verifying the superiority of copper as the inner tube. More importantly, it was found that reducing the fire spot zone temperature by mixing CO{sub 2} in the bottom blowing oxygen fundamentally alleviated the burning loss of the tuyere and the surrounding brick.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

An energy model of droplet impingement on an inclined wall under isothermal and non-isothermal environments

The observation of spray-wall interaction is of great importance to understand the dynamics that occur during fuel impingement onto the chamber wall or piston surfaces in internal combustion engines. It is found that the maximum spreading length of an impinged droplet can provide a quantitative estimation of heat transfer and energy transformation for spray-wall interaction. Furthermore, it influences the air-fuel mixing and hydrocarbon and particle emissions at combusting conditions. In this paper, an analytical model of different droplet-wall impingement conditions is developed in terms of βm (dimensionless maximum spreading length, the ratio of maximum spreading length to initial droplet diameter) to understand the detailed impinging dynamic process. These conditions are grouped as: a single diesel droplet impinging on the wall with different inclined angles (α); cold wall - heated droplet and heated wall - cold droplet impingement when inclined angle of the wall is 0°, respectively. The analytical model is built up based on the energy conservation that considers kinetic energy, gravitation energy, and surface energy before impingement, as well as viscous dissipation, gravitation energy, adhesion energy, deformation energy, and heat energy after impingement. The experimental work of diesel droplet impinging on an inclined wall is performed at a certain range of the Weber number (We of 33 to 420) with various inclined angles (α of 0° to 45°), while for inclined angle is 0°, droplet and wall temperature are varied from 25°C to 150°C to study the effects of the inclined angle and temperature on the temporal evolution of the post-impingement characteristics (i.e. droplet spreading length, dynamic contact angle). The analytical model is validated and evaluated at the aforementioned experimental operating points. The validated model can be employed to predict maximum spreading length of the droplet impinged on the wall. It is further utilized to determine the transition from capillary regime to kinetic regime, then to viscous regime at different inclined angle of the wall.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Parameter extraction approaches for compact modeling of thermoelectric modules

Thermoelectric (TE) cooling has experienced rapid advancements with the foundational understanding of TE materials. TE modules, compact and lightweight devices, have become the prevalent approach for implementing TE technologies. Accurately quantifying TE physical parameters (Seebeck coefficient α, thermal conductivity κ, and thermal resistance ρ) is challenging due to the dynamic temperature changes in operation. Furthermore, extracting lumped property parameters is crucial for designing energy systems using TE modules. Existing research has several limitations, such as lack of comparative analysis between prevalent formulae, reliance on potentially inaccurate vendor-supplied data, disregard for fundamental assumptions, and absence of empirical measurements. Further, this study addresses these gaps by conducting TE material characterization, comparing three existing formulae using vendor datasheets, designing a laboratory test facility for model validation and refinement, and outlining a structured data extraction procedure. The study's novelty lies in multiple key contributions: (1) a detailed comparative analysis of existing formulae for extracting TE property parameter; (2) executing experimental work in a laboratory setting to validate the model and elucidate its limitations; (3) highlighting potential risks; (4) clarifying possible assumptions from both material and engineering perspectives; and (5) considering temperature differential impacts. This comprehensive approach addresses the current research gaps and provides valuable insights into the design and application of TE modules in various energy systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Modeling, Parameter Estimation, and Data Reconciliation of a Supercritical Pulverized Coal-Fired Boiler

A high-fidelity, spatially distributed dynamic model of a supercritical pulverized coal-fired boiler was developed for calculating transient thermal profiles of the boiler tubes, which are often not measured or unmeasurable in industrial settings due to the harsh operating conditions. In this work, rigorous models of the subcritical and supercritical steam properties, which can be highly nonlinear, were used to capture the transition between two-phase and one-phase flow, respectively, as supercritical boilers frequently transition through the critical point during load-following operation. The transient boiler model was also used for data reconciliation and parameter estimation for the purpose of model validation against industrial data. An approach was developed to reduce the size of large-scale reconciliation problem by focusing on the implementation of bias terms for the reconciled variables, which can be estimated in place of the reconciled variables themselves. In addition, a functional approximation of the reconciliation problem was defined so that it can be more simply optimized. Combining this functional approximation optimization with reformulation of the reconciliation problem considering measurement biases can significantly improve the tractability of many such large-scale problems. The validated boiler model was then used to study transient responses under load-following operation with specific attention on the calculation of unmeasurable variables.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Dynamic Pore Network Model for Imbibition Simulation Considering Corner Film Flow

Wetting films can develop in the corners of angular pores under strong wetting conditions. Modeling the dynamics of corner film remains elusive using direct numerical simulations because of the significant scale difference between main meniscus and corner film flow. In this paper, the modified interacting capillary bundle model (ICB), developed in our previous work to describe accurately corner film dynamics in a single square tube, is incorporated into a single-pressure dynamic pore network model (DPNM) to simulate imbibition in strongly wetting porous media with corner film flow. The traditional pore network is decomposed into several layers of interacting subpore networks where the 0th layer of subpore network simulates the main meniscus flow and higher layers the corner film flow. The fluid flow between different layers is captured by interlayer throats. In addition, the snap-off mechanism caused by the thickening of wetting corner film is considered. The accuracy of the developed model is validated for four cases: spontaneous imbibition in a single square tube, wetting fluid redistribution through corner films under a capillary pressure difference, snap off in a narrow throat connecting two large pores, and imbibition dynamics in a real microfluidic porous geometry. The validated model is then used to simulate both spontaneous and controlled imbibition in a pore network with random pore size distribution. Finally, the interaction between corner film and main meniscus flow in porous media is analyzed from a pore-scale perspective.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrating crop growth models with remote sensing for predicting biomass yield of sorghum

Abstract Plant phenotypes are often descriptive, rather than predictive of crop performance. As a result, extensive testing is required in plant breeding programmes to develop varieties aimed at performance in the target environments. Crop models can improve this testing regime by providing a predictive framework to (i) augment field phenotyping data and derive hard-to-measure phenotypes and (ii) estimate performance across geographical regions using historical weather data. The goal of this study was to parameterize the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop growth models with remote-sensing and ground-reference data to predict variation in phenology and yield-related traits in 18 commercial grain and biomass sorghum hybrids. Genotype parameters for each hybrid were estimated using remote-sensing measurements combined with manual phenotyping in West Lafayette, IN, in 2018. The models were validated in hybrid performance trials in two additional seasons at that site and against yield trials conducted in Bushland, TX, between 2001 and 2018. These trials demonstrated that (i) maximum plant height, final dry biomass and radiation use efficiency (RUE) of photoperiod-sensitive and -insensitive forage sorghum hybrids tended to be higher than observed in grain sorghum, (ii) photoperiod-sensitive sorghum hybrids exhibited greater biomass production in longer growing environments and (iii) the parameterized and validated models perform well in above-ground biomass simulations across years and locations. Crop growth models that integrate remote-sensing data offer an efficient approach to parameterize larger plant breeding populations.

Yang, Kai-Wei↗

DOE OSTI2024

Extraction of Vibration Data with Imaging

To date, the primary sensing technology used to measure the vibration response has been accelerometers and strain gages mounted directly to the structure and using either wired or, more recently, wireless telemetry. Cost issues with these sensors and the associated data acquisition systems typically limit the numbers that are deployed on in situ structures. Although there are a few structures with larger sensing counts that in some cases exceed over 1000 sensors, more typical numbers range from ten to one hundred sensors resulting in low spatial resolution when they are applied to physically large systems. When one considers that nuclear power plant structures usually have complex geometries, material properties, connectivity and boundary conditions, it is clear these current approaches to vibration measurements can only provide limited information about a system’s dynamics response characteristics. As an alternative, many non-contact measurement technologies have emerged, including point wise measurement methods such as Global Positioning System (GPS), microwave interferometry, and laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV), as well as simultaneous full-field measurement methods such as electronic speckle pattern interferometry, holography interferometry, and muon tomography, some of which can provide high spatial resolution measurements. Among these methods, digital video imaging techniques have emerged as a feasible solution for full-field vibration measurements that provide significantly more detailed dynamic response information because every pixel becomes a measurement point. Furthermore, recent advances in image processing and computer vision algorithms have been successfully used to process video data for experimental and operational modal analysis. Such full-field measurements have the potential to significantly improve many current structural assessment procedures including system identification (modal parameter estimation), structural health monitoring, load reconstruction, model validation, and model updating. Furthermore, more recent full-field imaging techniques can be accomplished with relatively low-cost, commercially-available off-the-shelf cameras. However, these measurement procedures have other limitations that must be considered such as the ability to only measure visibly accessible points on a structure and a more limited dynamic range and bandwidth than can be achieved with accelerometers or strain gages.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the U.S. Western Electric Interconnection to Understand the Consequences of Hydrometeorological Extremes and Options for Risk Mitigation

Electricity grid operators around the world face a dual challenge; withstanding increasingly severe weather and the longer term impacts of climate change, while simultaneously decarbonizing. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts are rising in both severity and frequency, which is threatening the reliability of electricity grids through increased demand, generation capacity losses, and equipment failures. Consequently, incorporating hydrometeorological stressors into computational power systems analysis is becoming an even more critical tool in long term planning and short term operations. However, there is a general lack of open-source customizable grid simulation software capable of exhaustively stress testing the grid under hydrometeorological uncertainty, and/or examining potential risk mitigation pathways. A related, persistent challenge for power system modelers is striking an appropriate balance between model fidelity (e.g. spatial scale and time resolution) and computational tractability (wall clock run-time). In this study, we are proposing a solution to this problem with open-source software that allows users to seamlessly customize the scale and track the accuracy of grid operations models. Our approach allows users to search over numerous model parameters (network topology, mathematical formulation, economic hurdle rates, and transmission line scaling) to identify model instantiations that accommodate experimental design. Further, we use this approach to demonstrate the importance of including extreme weather events in model validation and model selection. Focusing on the occurrence of heatwaves and droughts in the U.S. Western Interconnection, we examine role of extreme events in balancing tradeoffs between model fidelity and run-time at the model design stage.

Economics↗