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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

3D Climate Simulations of Earth-Like Planets with A Range of Atmospheric Composition, Radiative Transfer, Ocean, And Resolution Configurations, Using the New Version of ROCKE-3D

Understanding the climate of terrestrial planetary atmospheres has been increasingly the focus of research worldwide, in light of the increasing amount of rocky planet discoveries orbiting other stars in or near their habitable zone. Here we present simulations with the new version of the 3D climate model ROCKE-3D, whose version 2.0 will soon become publicly available. A wide range of configurations will be supported, compared to a handful ones in its predecessor, version 1.0 (Way et al., 2017). These include two model resolutions (4x5 and 2x2.5), two radiation schemes (GISS and SOCRATES), three atmospheric configurations (Earth-like, Earth-like without O3 and aerosols, and N2-dominated), and three ocean setups (prescribed sea-surface temperatures and ice cover, q-flux, and dynamic). Simulations of all different configuration combinations have been performed and will become available for use by the community. Key results will be presented across those configurations, together of the role of the structural uncertainty in model setup in the resulting climate calculated by the model.

climate simulations of Earth-like planets↗
NASA NTRS2001

Orbital, Rotational and Climatic Interactions: Energy Dissipation and Angular Momentum Exchange in the Earth-Moon System

A numerical ocean tide model has been developed and tested using highly accurate TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) tidal solutions. The hydrodynamic model is based on time stepping a finite difference approximation to the non-linear shallow water equations. Two novel features of our implementation are a rigorous treatment of self attraction and loading (SAL), and a physically based parameterization for internal tide (IT) radiation drag. The model was run for a range of grid resolutions, and with variations in model parameters and bathymetry. For a rational treatment of SAL and IT drag, the model run at high resolution (1/12 degree) fits the T/P solutions to within 5 cm RMS in the open ocean. Both the rigorous SAL treatment and the IT drag parameterization are required to obtain solutions of this quality. The sensitivity of the solution to perturbations in bathymetry suggest that the fit to T/P is probably now limited by errors in this critical input. Since the model is not constrained by any data, we can test the effect of dropping sea-level to match estimated bathymetry from the last glacial maximum (LGM). Our results suggest that the 100 m drop in sea-level in the LGM would have significantly increased tidal amplitudes in the North Atlantic, and increased overall tidal dissipation by about 40%. However, details in tidal solutions for the past 20 ka are sensitive to the assumed stratification. IT drag accounts for a significant fraction of dissipation, especially in the LGM when large areas of present day shallow sea were exposed, and this parameter is poorly constrained at present.

Egbert, Gary D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ship‐Based Lidar Evaluation of Southern Ocean Low Clouds in the Storm‐Resolving General Circulation Model ICON and the ERA5 and MERRA‐2 Reanalyses

Global storm resolving models (GSRMs) represent the next generation of global climate models. One of them is a 5-km Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Weather and Climate Model (ICON). Its high resolution means that parameterizations of convection and clouds, including subgrid-scale clouds, are omitted, relying on explicit simulation but necessarily utilizing microphysics and turbulence parameterizations. Standard-resolution (10–100 km) models, which use convection and cloud parameterizations, have substantial cloud biases over the Southern Ocean (SO), adversely affecting radiation and sea surface temperature. The SO is dominated by low clouds, which cannot be observed accurately from space due to overlapping clouds, attenuation, and ground clutter. We evaluated SO clouds in ICON and the ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyzes using approximately 2400 days of lidar observations and 2300 radiosonde profiles from 31 voyages and a Macquarie Island station during 2010–2021, compared to the model and reanalyzes using a ground-based lidar simulator. We found that ICON and the reanalyzes underestimate the total cloud fraction by about 10% and 20%, respectively. ICON and ERA5 overestimate the cloud occurrence peak at about 500 m, associated with underestimated lower tropospheric stability and overestimated lifting condensation level. The reanalyzes strongly underestimate fog and very low-level clouds, and MERRA-2 underestimates cloud occurrence at almost all heights. Outgoing shortwave radiation is overestimated in MERRA-2, implying a “too few, too bright” cloud problem. SO cloud and fog biases are a substantial issue in the analyzed model and reanalyzes and result in shortwave and longwave radiation biases.

Kuma, Peter [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden); Univ. of Ca↗
NASA NTRS2016

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

Modeling is an important tool for understanding AMOC on all timescales. Mechanistic studies of modern AMOC variability have been hampered by a lack of consistency between free-running models and the sensitivity of AMOC to resolution and parameterization. Recent work within the framework of the phase two Coordinated Ocean- Reference Experiments (CORE-II) addresses this issue head on, looking at model differences of AMOC mean state and interannual variability. One consistent feature across the models is that AMOC mean transport is related to mixed layer depths and Labrador Sea salt content, whereas interannual variability is primarily associated with Labrador Sea temperature anomalies. This is consistent with the hypothesized importance of salt balance for AMOC variability on geological timescales. The simulated relationships between AMOC and subsurface temperature anomalies in fully coupled climate models reveal subsurface AMOC fingerprints that could be used to reconstruct historical AMOC variations at low frequency.With the lack of long-term AMOC observations, models of ocean state that assimilate observational data have been explored as a way to reconstruct AMOC, but comparisons between models indicate they are quite variable in their AMOC representations. Karspeck et al. (2015) found that historical reconstructions of AMOC in such models are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation procedure. The ocean data assimilation community continues to address these issues through improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information.Two objectives of paleoclimate modeling are 1) to provide mechanistic information for interpretation of paleoclimate observations, and 2) to test the ability of predictive models to simulate Earth's climate under different background forcing states. In a good example of the first objective, Schmittner and Lund (2015) and Menviel et al. (2014) provided key information about the proxy signals expected under freshwater disturbance of AMOC, which were used to support the paleoclimate observations made by Henry et al. (2016). In an example of the second objective, Muglia and Schmittner (2015) analyzed Third Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) models of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and found consistently more intense and deeper AMOC transports relative to preindustrial simulations, counter to the paleoclimate consensus of LGM conditions, indicating that some processes are not well represented in the PMIP3 models. One challenge is to find adequate paleo observations against which to test these models. PMIP is now in phase 4 (part of CMIP6), which includes experiments covering five periods in Earth's history: the last millennium, last glacial maximum, last interglacial, and the mid-Pliocene. Newly compiled paleoclimate datasets from the PAGES2k project, more transient simulations, and participation of isotope enabled models planned for CMIP6PMIP4 will enable richer paleo data-model comparisons in the near future.

Kilbourne, Hali↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Containerized GEOS: Toward a Portable Climate Model

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) is an Earth system model used for weather, climate, and other scientific applications. GEOS consists of linked components that can run in various configurations such as atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean. Running this model on any new supercomputing system depends on operating systems, compilers, MPI stacks, and libraries being present and correctly configured. To remove that burden from users, our project explores building and running GEOS using Singularity containers – files containing all the needed software dependencies – on both NASA high-end computing systems and commercial cloud computing environments. Ultimately, the goal is for containerized GEOS to make it easier for users outside of NASA to deploy and run the model on any machine.

Matthew Thompson↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Hydrological Cycle and Ocean Circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Mid-Pliocene: Results From PlioMIP2

The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Piacenzian warm period of the Pliocene (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land–sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mPWP and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to the preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mPWP climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with the preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with the preindustrial. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean (MCM), which is based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and data. We find that models, which reproduce modern MC climate well, are not always good at simulating the mPWP climate anomaly of the MC. By comparing with individual models, the MMM and MCM reproduce the preindustrial sea surface temperature (SST) of the reanalysis better than most individual models and produce less discrepancy with reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than most individual models in the MC. In addition, the clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensembles that include similar models.

Hydrological cycle↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Impact of ENSO and NAO Initial Conditions and Anomalies on the Modeled Response to Pinatubo-Sized Volcanic Forcing

Strong, strato-volcanic eruptions are a substantial, intermittent source of natural climate variability. Initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), also naturally impact climate on interannual timescales. We examine how initial conditions of ENSO and NAO contribute to the evolution of climate in the period following a Pinatubo-type eruption using a large (81-member) ensemble of model simulations in GISS model E2.1-G. Simulations are initialized from sampled conditions of ENSO and NAO using the protocol of the coordinated CMIP6 Volcanic Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) – where aerosols are forced with respect to time, latitude, and height. We analyze paired anomalous variations (perturbed – control) to understand changes in global and regional climate responses under positive, negative, and neutral ENSO and NAO conditions. In particular, we find that for paired anomalies there is a high probability of strong (∼1.5 °C) warming of northern Eurasia surface air temperature in the first winter after the volcanic eruption for negative NAO ensembles coincident with decreased lower stratospheric temperature at the poles, decreased geopotential height, and strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Climate anomalies (relative to average conditions across the control period), however, show no mean warming and suggest that the strength of this response is impacted by conditions present in the selected period of the control run. Again using paired anomalies, we also observe that under both +ENSO and −ENSO ensembles sea surface temperature decreases in the first post-eruptive boreal winter coinciding with surface cooling from volcanic aerosols. Neutral ENSO ensembles, on the other hand, show variability in their response with no clear trend in post-eruptive warming or cooling. In general, paired anomalies from unperturbed simulations give insight into the evolution of the climate response to volcanic forcing; however, when compared with anomalies from climatological conditions, it is clear that paired anomalies are significantly affected by sampled initial conditions occurring at the time of the volcanic eruption.

volcanic eruptions↗
NASA NTRS2010

Prediction Activities at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is a core NASA resource for the development and use of satellite observations through the integrating tools of models and assimilation systems. Global ocean, atmosphere and land surface models are developed as components of assimilation and forecast systems that are used for addressing the weather and climate research questions identified in NASA's science mission. In fact, the GMAO is actively engaged in addressing one of NASA's science mission s key questions concerning how well transient climate variations can be understood and predicted. At weather time scales the GMAO is developing ultra-high resolution global climate models capable of resolving high impact weather systems such as hurricanes. The ability to resolve the detailed characteristics of weather systems within a global framework greatly facilitates addressing fundamental questions concerning the link between weather and climate variability. At sub-seasonal time scales, the GMAO is engaged in research and development to improve the use of land information (especially soil moisture), and in the improved representation and initialization of various sub-seasonal atmospheric variability (such as the MJO) that evolves on time scales longer than weather and involves exchanges with both the land and ocean The GMAO has a long history of development for advancing the seasonal-to-interannual (S-I) prediction problem using an older version of the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This includes the development of an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to facilitate the multivariate assimilation of ocean surface altimetry, and an EnKF developed for the highly inhomogeneous nature of the errors in land surface models, as well as the multivariate assimilation needed to take advantage of surface soil moisture and snow observations. The importance of decadal variability, especially that associated with long-term droughts is well recognized by the climate community. An improved understanding of the nature of decadal variability and its predictability has important implications for efforts to assess the impacts of global change in the coming decades. In fact, the GMAO has taken on the challenge of carrying out experimental decadal predictions in support of the IPCC AR5 effort.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
DOE OSTI2024

Compound Flooding in Halmstad: Common Causes, Interannual Variability and the Effects of Climate Change

Compound flooding was investigated in Halmstad on the Swedish west coast. The highest sea level ever recorded in Sweden was recorded by the Halmstad tide gauge. Moreover, through the city runs Nissan, one of the largest hydropower-producing rivers in southern Sweden. Together these features make the city an interesting location to study compound flooding. Co-variability between different hazards are studied using a unique set of downscaled climate scenario projections produced using state-of-the-art regional atmosphere, ocean and hydrological models. River discharge and sea level annual maxima are found to be correlated with peak strength on interannual time scales. This co-variability is found to derive from a mutual dependence that these hazards have on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Precipitation also shares this dependence in winter months and acts as a driver, building up the fluvial river hazard, while potentially adding additional pluvial hazard. Trends are also assessed, and it was found that future changes in compound flooding will most likely be driven primarily by mean sea level rise and secondarily by increases in mean river discharge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2007

Identification of Human-Induced Changes in Atmospheric Moisture Content

Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/sq m per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone. In a formal detection and attribution analysis using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated "fingerprint" pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor is identifiable with high statistical confidence in the SSM/I data. Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually suggest that this fingerprint "match" is primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earth's atmosphere.

Santer, B.D.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Salinity Observing System: Recent Discoveries and the Way Forward

Advances in L-band microwave satellite radiometry in the past decade, pioneered by ESA's SMOS and NASA's Aquarius and SMAP missions, have demonstrated an unprecedented capability to observe global sea surface salinity (SSS) from space. Measurements from these missions are the only means to probe the very-near surface salinity (top cm), providing a unique monitoring capability for the interfacial exchanges of water between the atmosphere and the upper-ocean, and delivering a wealth of information on various salinity processes in the ocean, linkages with the climate and water cycle, including land-sea connections, and providing constraints for ocean prediction models. The satellite SSS data are complimentary to the existing in situ systems such as Argo that provide accurate depiction of large-scale salinity variability in the open ocean but under-sample mesoscale variability, coastal oceans and marginal seas, and energetic regions such as boundary currents and fronts. In particular, salinity remote sensing has proven valuable to systematically monitor the open oceans as well as coastal regions up to approximately 40 km from the coasts. This is critical to addressing societally relevant topics, such as land-sea linkages, coastal-open ocean exchanges, research in the carbon cycle, near-surface mixing, and air-sea exchange of gas and mass. In this paper, we provide a community perspective on the major achievements of satellite SSS for the aforementioned topics, the unique capability of satellite salinity observing system and its complementarity with other platforms, uncertainty characteristics of satellite SSS, and measurement versus sampling errors in relation to in situ salinity measurements. We also discuss the need for technological innovations to improve the accuracy, resolution, and coverage of satellite SSS, and the way forward to both continue and enhance salinity remote sensing as part of the integrated Earth Observing System in order to address societal needs.

Vinogradova, Nadya↗
NASA NTRS2021

Drivers of Air-Sea CO2 Flux Seasonality and its Long-Term Changes in the NASA-GISS Model CMIP6 Submission.

Climate change will affect both the mean state and seasonality of marine physical and biogeochemical properties, with important implications for the oceanic sink of atmospheric CO2. Here, we investigate the seasonal cycle of the air-sea exchange of CO2 and pCO2,sw (surface seawater pCO2) and their long term changes using the CMIP6 submission of the NASA-GISS modelE (GISS-E2.1-G). In comparison to the CMIP5 submission (GISS-E2-R), we find that on the global scale, the seasonal cycles of the CO2 flux and NPP have improved, while the seasonal cycles of DIC, alkalinity, and macronutrients have deteriorated. Moreover, for all ocean biogeochemietry fields, changes in skill between E2.1-G and E2-R display large regional variability. For E2.1-G, we find similar modeled and observed CO2 flux seasonal cycles in the subtropical gyres, where seasonal anomalies of pCO2,sw and the flux are temperature-driven, and the Southern Ocean, where anomalies are DIC-driven. Biases in these seasonal cycles are largest in the subpolar and equatorial regions, driven by a combination of biases in temperature, DIC, alkalinity, and wind speed. When comparing the historical simulation to a simulation with an idealized increase in atmospheric pCO2, we find that the seasonal amplitudes of the CO2 flux and pCO2,sw generally increase. These changes are produced by increases in the sensitivity of pCO2,sw to its respective drivers. These findings are consistent with the notion that the sensitivity of pCO2,sw is expected to increase due to the increase of atmospheric pCO2, with changes in the seasonality of temperature, DIC, and alkalinity having secondary influences.

Air-Sea CO2↗
NASA NTRS2016

Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosol Trends from Satellite and Surface Observations and Model Simulations over the North Atlantic Ocean from 2002 to 2012

Aerosols contribute to Earths radiative budget both directly and indirectly, and large uncertainties remain in quantifying aerosol effects on climate. Variability in aerosol distribution and properties, as might result from changing emissions and transport processes, must be characterized. In this study, variations in aerosol loading across the eastern seaboard of theUnited States and theNorthAtlanticOcean during 2002 to 2012 are analyzed to examine the impacts of anthropogenic emission control measures using monthly mean data from MODIS, AERONET, and IMPROVE observations and Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulation.MODIS observes a statistically significant negative trend in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the midlatitudes (-0.030 decade(sup-1)). Correlation analyses with surface AOD from AERONET sites in the upwind region combined with trend analysis from GOCART component AOD confirm that the observed decrease in the midlatitudes is chiefly associated with anthropogenic aerosols that exhibit significant negative trends from the eastern U.S. coast extending over the western North Atlantic. Additional analysis of IMPROVE surface PM(sub 2.5) observations demonstrates statistically significant negative trends in the anthropogenic components with decreasing mass concentrations over the eastern United States. Finally, a seasonal analysis of observational datasets is performed. The negative trend seen by MODIS is strongest during spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) months. This is supported by AERONET seasonal trends and is identified from IMPROVE seasonal trends as resulting from ammonium sulfate decreases during these seasons.

Jongeward, Andrew R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Dominance of ENSO-Like Variability in Controlling Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes in the Satellite Era

Ocean surface turbulent and radiative fluxes are critical links in the climate system since they mediate energy exchange between the two fluid systems (ocean and atmosphere) whose combined heat transport determines the basic character of Earth's climate. Moreover, interannual to decadal climate variability depends crucially on the nature of these exchange processes. For example, addressing the question of the degree to which the global hydrologic cycle is changing depends on our ability to observe and model these fluxes accurately. In this work we investigate the interannual to decadal variation of fluxes over the global tropics, especially the tropical oceans. Recent versions of satellite-derived fresh water flux estimates as well as some reanalyses (e.g. products from Remote Sensing Systems, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, and Global Precipitation Climatology Project) suggest that increases in evaporation and precipitation over the past 20 years exceed those expected on the basis of climate model projected responses to greenhouse gas forcing. At the same time, it is well known that E1 Nino / Southern Oscillation behavior in the Pacific exhibits significant variability at scales longer than interannual. We examine here the degree to which surface fluxes attending these interannual to decadal fluctuations are related to ENSO. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations.

Robertson, F. R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world

Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 future radiative forcing scenarios and show that the ensemble spread in northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) more than doubles during the mid-twenty-first century, highlighting an exceptionally wide range of possible climate states. Furthermore, there are strikingly distinct trajectories in these SSTs, arising from differences in the North Atlantic deep convection among ensemble members starting by 2030. We propose that these are stochastically triggered and subsequently amplified by positive feedbacks involving coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. Freshwater forcing associated with global warming seems necessary for activating these feedbacks, accentuating the impact of external forcing on internal variability. Further investigation on seven additional large ensembles affirms the robustness of our findings. By monitoring these mechanisms in real time and extending dynamical model predictions after positive feedbacks activate, we may achieve skillful long-lead North Atlantic decadal predictions that are effective for multiple decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Climatic Analysis of Oceanic Water Vapor Transports Based on Satellite E-P Datasets

Understanding the climatically varying properties of water vapor transports from a robust observational perspective is an essential step in calibrating climate models. This is tantamount to measuring year-to-year changes of monthly- or seasonally-averaged, divergent water vapor transport distributions. This cannot be done effectively with conventional radiosonde data over ocean regions where sounding data are generally sparse. This talk describes how a methodology designed to derive atmospheric water vapor transports over the world oceans from satellite-retrieved precipitation (P) and evaporation (E) datasets circumvents the problem of inadequate sampling. Ultimately, the method is intended to take advantage of the relatively complete and consistent coverage, as well as continuity in sampling, associated with E and P datasets obtained from satellite measurements. Independent P and E retrievals from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) measurements, along with P retrievals from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) measurements, are used to obtain transports by solving a potential function for the divergence of water vapor transport as balanced by large scale E - P conditions.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Race To Understand A Changing Planet

The Earth's climate is changing rapidly. In some respects, the rate of change is outpacing the predictions of only a few years ago. The challenge to Earth Science is to put forward credible projections of possible future climates so that the public and policy makers can make science-based decisions about energy development strategies. Models, observations and experiments all play strong roles in improving knowledge and increasing confidence in our predictions. The models have progressed from simple, coarse-resolution descriptions of atmospheric dynamics and physics only twenty years ago, to full-up Earth System models (ESMs) that include complete descriptions of the oceans and cryosphere. It has been convincingly argued that such complexity - the construction of realistic "toy" Earth's - is necessary to address the complex processes involved in climate change, including not only the physical atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, but also the carbon cycle - both its natural and anthropogenic components - and the biosphere. Observations, particularly satellite observations, have more or less kept pace with the demands of the modelers, being able to observe progressively more and different facets of the Earth system, but the global satellite fleet is in need of an overhaul very soon. Lastly, field experiments and process studies confront the models with facts and allow us to develop more sophisticated and accurate satellite data algorithms. The challenges facing our relatively small Earth and planetary science communities are considerable and the stakes are significant. The stakeholders, now numbering 7 billion but soon to be 10 billion, will be relying on our results and capabilitie's to guide them into the future.

Sellers, Piers J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Early Mars Climate Modeling and the Faint Young Sun Paradox.

Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. Liquid water is not stable on its surface. There are no lakes, seas, or oceans, and precipitation falls as snowfall. Yet early in its history during the Noachian epoch, there is geological and mineralogical evidence that liquid water from rainfall flowed on its surface creating drainage systems, lakes, and - possibly - seas and oceans. More recent observations by Curiosity in Gale crater hint that such conditions may have persited into the Hesperian. The implication is that early Mars had a wamer climate than it does today as a result of a thicker atmosphere with a more powerful greenhouse effect capable of producing an active hydrological cycle with rainfall, runoff, and evaporation. Since Mariner 9 began accumulating such evidence, researchers have been trying to understand what kind of a climate system could have created greenhouse conditions favorable for liquid water. Unfortunately, the problem is not yet solved.

greenhouse gases↗