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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed MultiPphysics BestEestimate Plus Uncertainties (BEPU) Application Development of RELAP5-3D Perturbation Model

The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to ensure maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit. Safety is a key parameter to all aspects related to light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), especially cost savings. Since the goal is to extend the lifetimes of these NPPs, the traditional deterministic safety concept may not guarantee a current economic asset. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has been promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) in this field to maximize the safety, economics, and performance of these NPPs through improved scientific understanding. One of the best practices to achieve this goal is to identify and optimize safety margins, which can lead to cost reduction. To do this, under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway will focus on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. The RISA Pathway will provide enhanced capabilities for analyzing and characterizing LWR systems performance by developing and demonstrating methods, tools, and data to enable risk-informed margins management (RIMM). The goals of the RISA Pathway are twofold: (1) deploy the risk-informed tools and methods that enable better representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) conduct advanced risk assessment applications with industry to support margin management strategies that enable more cost-effective plant operation. The tools and methods provided by the RISA Pathway will support effective margin management for both active and passive safety systems, structures, and components (SSC) of an NPP. The tools and methods used in the RISA Pathway should have high confidence and highest technical maturity for and implementation to industry at its current setting. They should also have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway will, therefore, perform a comprehensive assessment of verification and validation (V&V) status of RISA Toolkit to enhance credibility RISA Toolkit which be used by industry. This report summarizes RELAP5-3D development activities for best estimated and uncertainty (BEPU) capability to support ongoing RISA Pathway pilot projects for risk informed uncertainty quantification applications. Work scope includes (1) development of initial perturbation model for selected closure laws and (2) testing of suitable probability distribution functions (PDF) for the selected correlations. Developed BEPU modules are tested with selected separate effect cases and compared with conventional thermal-hydraulics model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Stage and Multi-Timescale Robust Co-Optimization Planning for Reliable and Sustainable Power Systems. Final Report

In this project, Clarkson University, in collaboration with Southern Methodist University and University of Pittsburgh, conducted the research to model, design, and implement a sophisticated generation and transmission co-optimization planning decision tool, called Multi-stage and Multi-timescale robust Co-Optimization Planning (MMCOP). The MMCOP decision tool intends to facilitate generation and transmission co-optimization planning of emerging power systems, while mitigating risks and uncertainties in both short-term operation dynamics and long-term policy and technology changes. Long-term power system planning aims at optimizing asset utilization by investing in a proper mix of various generation technologies and transmission lines to supply the future load growth. In particular, the Clean Power Plan (CPP), which is designed to combat climate change and reduce carbon emissions by setting a national limit on carbon pollution from power plants, may dramatically change the landscape of the power industry by further promoting clean energy and phasing out emissions-intensive generation technologies. In addition, novel non-wire alternatives (e.g., demand response (DR), distributed generation (DG), energy efficiency (EE), and smart grid technologies) and the computational complexity for large-scale systems significantly complicate the system planning procedure even further. However, existing conventional planning approaches neglect short-term variability and uncertainty of renewable energy, hourly chronological operation details, and physical nonlinear characteristics of the alternating current transmission network. As a result, existing conventional planning approaches may not work properly, and power systems reliability could be in jeopardy. In observing the limitations of existing conventional planning approaches and addressing new challenges of emerging power systems, the main scope of this project to develop co-optimization planning models within a multi-stage and multi-timescale framework. In particular, random contingencies, key uncertainty factors, and AC power flows are included to derive expansion plans while considering both long-term reliability and short-term flexibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of Neutron Multiplicity Counting Experiments to Optimal Cross-Section Adjustments

This paper presents the first application of model calibration to neutron multiplicity counting (NMC) experiments for cross-section optimization that is informed by adjoint-based sensitivity analysis (SA) and first-order uncertainty quantification (UQ). We summarize previous work on SA applied to NMC and describe notable modifications and additions. We give the procedure for first-order UQ and Bayesian-inference-based parameter estimation (PE). We then discuss model calibration applied to NMC of a 4.5-kg sphere of weapons-grade, alpha-phase plutonium metal (the BeRP ball) with the nPod neutron multiplicity counter. For the BeRP ball in bare and polyethylene-reflected configurations, we discuss the sensitivity of the first- and second-moment detector responses (i.e., first and second moments of the NMC distribution, respectively) to the cross sections. We describe the sources of uncertainty in the measured and simulated responses. Specifically, uncertainty in the measured responses is due to both random and systematic sources. Uncertainty in the simulated responses is due to the cross-section covariances. We describe in detail the adjustment to the cross sections and cross-section covariances due to the optimization. Due to the contribution of systematic uncertainties to the measured response uncertainties, the adjustment to the cross sections is similar in trend but larger in magnitude compared to that recommended by previous work. We compare the measured responses to responses simulated with nominal and optimized cross sections, demonstrating that the best-estimate cross sections produce simulations of NMC experiments that are more accurate with reduced uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimal operational controls for power grid

Power grid operation is facing increased penetration of renewables and distributed energy resources at both transmission and distribution levels. This presents an increased level of randomness and uncertainty for its operational quality, where the challenges are mainly how controls and optimizations can be performed so that the operational quality of the power grid can be maintained. An interesting feature is also that we need to make a good use of uncertainties embedded in the swing equation from the renewable contributions rather than simply trying to minimize the impact of uncertainties. Furthermore, this requires effective solutions on system estimation, control, and optimization. Indeed, in past decades, work has been carried out on the development of advanced controls and optimization for such complicated dynamic systems. Examples are optimal operational control for both performance and stability enhancement considering random renewables penetration, frequency, and active power control for microgrids and parameter estimation for various parts of the power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic Strategic Participation of Active Distribution Networks With High-Penetration DERs in Wholesale Electricity Markets

With the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs), traditional distribution networks as load-serving entities in wholesale electricity markets, now evolve towards active distribution networks (ADNs) which can proactively participate in wholesale markets by optimally controlling the DERs in their networks. A stochastic bilevel optimization model is proposed in this paper for the strategic participation of ADNs and DERs to provide energy and grid services in wholesale electricity markets. The bilevel optimization model can capture the interactions between the ADN and the wholesale energy and ancillary service markets, considering the uncertainties of DERs in the ADN. In the upper-level model, the ADN makes optimal decisions on energy and reserve bidding considering the availability, uncertainties, and flexibility of DERs. The joint energy and reserve market-clearing of the independent system operator (ISO) is modeled as the lower-level problem. Using strong duality theory and Karush-Kuhn Tucker (KKT) conditions, the proposed bilevel optimization problem is reformulated as mathematical programming with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) problem and further converted into a computationally-solvable mixed-integer second-order-cone programming (MISOCP) model. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the model and the interactions between an ADN and wholesale electricity markets.

active distribution network↗
DOE OSTI2024

PV Performance Modeling and Stakeholder Engagement (Final Technical Report)

This core capability project’s objective is to increase the value of photovoltaic (PV) performance models by improving their functionality, demonstrating, and quantifying their validity, and offering a wide range of stakeholder engagement opportunities. In FY22-24, we developed new and improved modeling algorithms and functions to represent PV performance more accurately in a variety of environments and conditions. The “Model parameter toolkit” was developed and includes functions to translate between different module temperature models, incidence angle modifier models, and single-diode models. A new modeling capability named “PV Atlas” was also developed leveraging Sandia’s High Performance Computing resources. This capability allows us to investigate several questions and provide climate-specific best practices and geographic data files; all these are hosted on an interactive website on Sandia’s GitHub and can be used for training, system optimization, or to provide best practices for uncertainty reduction. For model validation, we published high-quality PV performance, and weather data; these data are well documented, filtered, and processed for quality and include examples on how to run PV simulations. We also developed well documented, standardized methods for validating PV models and ran independent model validation and 2 blind modeling intercomparisons engaging with 49 organizations from 17 countries. We co-led and contributed to a growing, well documented and maintained suite of open-source functions for PV modeling (i.e., the pvlib-python) and we outreached to the PV modeling stakeholders via the PVPMC workshops and web resources. In addition, this project supported US representation and leadership for the International Energy Agency (IEA) PVPS Task 13; specifically, members of our team led and supported 3 subtasks on: 1) Best practices for the optimization of bifacial photovoltaic tracking, 2) Extreme weather events and their multiple impact on PV power plants: Risks, failure mechanisms and mitigation strategies, and 3) Best practice guidelines for the use of economic and technical Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). This project resulted in the publications of 14 peer reviewed journal papers, 37 conference presentations, 6 SAND reports, 5 public datasets and 6 new webpages on the PVPMC website. It supported the release of 13 pvlib-python versions where 28 enhancements were from this PV Performance Modeling project. We co-organized 5 PVPMC workshops in FY22-24 with the participation of 214 unique institutions and around 700 participants. The PVPMC website was redesigned, and its reliability was improved; it receives over 50,000 visitors/year from 202 unique countries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal Power Flow in DC Networks with Robust Feasibility and Stability Guarantees

With high penetrations of renewable generation and variable loads, there is significant uncertainty associated with power flows in DC networks such that stability and operational constraint satisfaction are of concern. Most existing DC network optimal power flow (DN-OPF) formulations assume exact knowledge of loading conditions and do not provide stability guarantees. Here, in contrast, this paper studies a DN-OPF formulation which considers both stability and operational constraint satisfaction under uncertainty. The need to account for a range of uncertainty realizations in this paper's robust optimization formulation results in a challenging semi-infinite program (SIP). The proposed solution algorithm reformulates this SIP into a computationally tractable problem by constructing a tight convex inner approximation of the stability set using sufficient conditions for the existence of a feasible and stable power flow solution. Optimal generator set-points are obtained by optimizing over the proposed convex stability set. The validity and effectiveness of the propose algorithm is demonstrated through various DC networks adapted from IEEE test cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

OPF-Learn: An Open-Source Framework for Creating Representative AC Optimal Power Flow Datasets: Preprint

Increasing levels of renewable generation motivate a growing interest in data-driven approaches for AC optimal power flow (AC OPF) to manage uncertainty. However, a lack of disciplined dataset creation and benchmarking prohibits useful comparison between approaches in the literature. To instigate confidence, models must be able to reliably predict solutions across a wide range of operating conditions. This paper develops the OPF-Learn package for Julia and Python which uses a computationally efficient approach to create representative datasets that span a wide spectrum of the AC OPF feasible region. Load profiles are uniformly sampled from a convex set that contains the AC OPF feasible set. For each infeasible point found, the convex set is reduced using infeasibility certificates, found by utilizing properties of a relaxed formulation. The framework is shown to generate datasets which are more representative of the entire feasible space versus traditional techniques seen in the literature, improving machine learning model performance.

dataset↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification in scientific machine learning: Methods, metrics, and comparisons

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with traditional methods. However, quantifying errors and uncertainties in NN-based inference is more complicated than in traditional methods. This is because in addition to aleatoric uncertainty associated with noisy data, there is also uncertainty due to limited data, but also due to NN hyperparameters, overparametrization, optimization and sampling errors as well as model misspecification. Although there are some recent works on uncertainty quantification (UQ) in NNs, there is no systematic investigation of suitable methods towards quantifying the total uncertainty effectively and efficiently even for function approximation, and there is even less work on solving partial differential equations and learning operator mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces using NNs. In this work, we present a comprehensive framework that includes uncertainty modeling, new and existing solution methods, as well as evaluation metrics and post-hoc improvement approaches. Further, to demonstrate the applicability and reliability of our framework, we present an extensive comparative study in which various methods are tested on prototype problems, including problems with mixed input-output data, and stochastic problems in high dimensions. In the Appendix, we include a comprehensive description of all the UQ methods employed. Further, to help facilitate the deployment of UQ in Scientific Machine Learning research and practice, we present and develop in [1] an open-source Python library (github.com/Crunch-UQ4MI/neuraluq), termed NeuralUQ, that is accompanied by an educational tutorial and additional computational experiments.

11 physics-informed neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automated Generation of Microkinetics for Heterogeneously Catalyzed Reactions Considering Correlated Uncertainties**

Abstract The study presents an ab‐initio based framework for the automated construction of microkinetic mechanisms considering correlated uncertainties in all energetic parameters and estimation routines. 2000 unique microkinetic models were generated within the uncertainty space of the BEEF‐vdW functional for the oxidation reactions of representative exhaust gas emissions from stoichiometric combustion engines over Pt(111) and compared to experiments through multiscale modeling. The ensemble of simulations stresses the importance of considering uncertainties. Within this set of first‐principles‐based models, it is possible to identify a microkinetic mechanism that agrees with experimental data. This mechanism can be traced back to a single exchange‐correlation functional, and it suggests that Pt(111) could be the active site for the oxidation of light hydrocarbons. The study provides a universal framework for the automated construction of reaction mechanisms with correlated uncertainty quantification, enabling a DFT‐constrained microkinetic model optimization for other heterogeneously catalyzed systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Series FACTS Devices for Increasing Resiliency in Severe Weather Conditions

Severe weather conditions are low-probability, high-impact events that affect grid operations. The majority of power outages are caused by severe weather conditions. Grid resiliency to weather events can be enhanced by decreasing the reliance on its affected sections. One way to do this is to reduce the power flow through lines vulnerable to severe weather. If a line is disconnected, its initial power flow is distributed through the neighbor lines, which may cause congestion in the grid. FACTS devices can be used to control the power flow of lines that have a higher chance of power outages. Most previous works do not consider weather events in power flow control. In this work, a linearized optimal power flow (OPF)–based algorithm is developed to minimize the real power flow of vulnerable lines considering the thermal limits of lines to prevent infeasible solutions; the simulation is fast, making it suitable for large-scale systems. The proposed optimization problem is presented as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP), making it capable of using short-term load forecasting due to its high solution speed. The proposed optimization problem considers multiple lines with different outage probabilities and the uncertainties of the weather forecast. Moreover, it estimates the power reduction in vulnerable lines due to changes in the series FACTS devices. The performance of the proposed optimization problem is tested on IEEE 14-, 30-, and 118-bus systems for several scenarios. The results are validated with the AC power flow results from MATPOWER.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Dispatch Strategies and Forecast Errors on the Economics of Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems

To assess the economic value of batteries in hybrid PV-battery systems, one must create a dispatch profile for the battery. Many analyses of battery value assume perfect forecasts of PV generation and load, determining an upper limit on the value of the battery. Prior work that accounts for forecast uncer- tainty often does so in the context of a single dispatch algorithm, which does not provide a baseline for comparison. Furthermore, when multiple dispatch algorithms are assessed with uncertainty, the benefits considered are for diesel generation in a microgrid, not retail rate savings. This work addresses the gaps in the literature by comparing the performance of both heuristic and optimal dispatch algorithms for retail rate savings under forecast uncertainty, and provides comparisons of the robustness of these algorithms and their associated estimates of economic value. We find that using a perfect forecast can overestimate the value of hybrid PV-battery systems between 1% and 8% compared to the reality of using a day-ahead forecast, depending on the dispatch algorithm used. Thus, accounting for forecast uncertainty in system design and analysis will significantly improve the accuracy of modeled system values.

batteries↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Dispatch Strategies and Forecast Errors on the Economics of Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems

To assess the economic value of batteries in hybrid PV-battery systems, one must create a dispatch profile for the battery. Many analyses of battery value assume perfect forecasts of PV generation and load, determining an upper limit on the value of the battery. Prior work that accounts for forecast uncertainty often does so in the context of a single dispatch algorithm, which does not provide a baseline for comparison. Furthermore, when multiple dispatch algorithms are assessed with uncertainty, the benefits considered are for diesel generation in a microgrid, not retail rate savings. This work addresses the gaps in the literature by comparing the performance of both heuristic and optimal dispatch algorithms for retail rate savings under forecast uncertainty, and provides comparisons of the robustness of these algorithms and their associated estimates of economic value. We find that using a perfect forecast can overestimate the value of hybrid PV-battery systems between 1% and 8% compared to the reality of using a day-ahead forecast, depending on the dispatch algorithm used. Thus, accounting for forecast uncertainty in system design and analysis will significantly improve the accuracy of modeled system values.

batteries↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Dispatch Strategies and Forecast Errors on the Economics of Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems: Preprint

To assess the economic value of batteries in hybrid PV-battery systems, one must create a dispatch profile for the battery. Many analyses of battery value assume perfect forecasts of PV generation and load, determining an upper limit on the value of the battery. Prior work that accounts for forecast uncertainty often does so in the context of a single dispatch algorithm, which does not provide a baseline for comparison. Furthermore, when multiple dispatch algorithms are assessed with uncertainty, the benefits considered are for diesel generation in a microgrid, not retail rate savings. This work addresses the gaps in the literature by comparing the performance of both heuristic and optimal dispatch algorithms for retail rate savings under forecast uncertainty, and provides comparisons of the robustness of these algorithms and their associated estimates of economic value. We find that using a perfect forecast can overestimate the value of hybrid PV-battery systems between 1% and 8% compared to the reality of using a day-ahead forecast, depending on the dispatch algorithm used. Thus, accounting for forecast uncertainty in system design and analysis will significantly improve the accuracy of modeled system values.

batteries↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty amplification due to density/refractive index gradients in background-oriented schlieren experiments

Here, we theoretically analyze the effect of density/refractive index gradients on the measurement precision of background-oriented schlieren (BOS) experiments by deriving the Cramer–Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the 2D centroid estimation process. A model is derived for the diffraction limited image of a dot viewed through a medium containing density gradients that includes the effect of the experimental parameters such as the magnification and f-number. It is shown using the model that nonlinearities in the density gradient field lead to blurring of the dot image. This blurring amplifies the effect of image noise on the centroid estimation process, leading to an increase in the CRLB and a decrease in the measurement precision. The ratio of position uncertainties of a dot in the reference and gradient images is shown to be a function of the ratio of the dot diameters and dot intensities. We termed this parameter the amplification ratio (A F ), and a methodology for reporting position uncertainties in tracking-based BOS measurements is proposed. The theoretical predictions of the dot position estimation variance from the CRLB are compared to ray tracing simulations, and agreement is obtained. The uncertainty amplification is also demonstrated on experimental BOS images of flow induced by a spark discharge, where it is seen that regions of high amplification ratio correspond to regions of density gradients. This analysis elucidates the dependence of the position uncertainty on density and refractive index gradient-induced distortion parameters, provides a methodology for accounting its effect on uncertainty quantification and provides a framework for optimizing experiment design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhancing flexibility for climate change using seasonal energy storage (aquifer thermal energy storage) in distributed energy systems

Long-term energy storage is expected to play a vital role in the deep decarbonization of building energy sectors, while enhancing the flexibility of buildings to withstand future climate variations. However, it is challenging to design distributed multi-energy systems (DMES) while taking into account the uncertainties introduced by climate change, since stochastic optimization of such systems is difficult. The present study introduces a stochastic optimization model to address this bottleneck, taking into account DMES including aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) as the long-term thermal storage. For the first time, a novel optimization algorithm links ATES with the DMES optimization model with the support of a simplified geotechnical model. Subsequently, a case study was conducted, focusing on a residential district in Chicago where the impact of future climate condition, energy demand, and solar and wind energy potentials were evaluated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) data (up to 2080) and the EnergyPlus model. The study revealed that ATES is an attractive way to improve the renewable energy penetration level and minimize the dependence on fossil fuels with reasonable support from the grid to assist the fluctuations in both demand and generation. Furthermore, ATES notably reduces fuel consumption and dependence while greatly enhancing the flexibility of the energy system to withstand fluctuations in demand and renewable energy generation brought by future climate variations. These qualities will make ATES an important part of distributed energy systems, even though it is not currently the lowest cost alternative due to lack of technology maturity. Furthermore, the design platform introduced in the present study can be used to design DMES enhancing flexibility to accommodate future climate variations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Kernel-based global sensitivity analysis obtained from a single data set

Results from global sensitivity analysis (GSA) often guide the understanding of complicated input–output systems. Kernel-based GSA methods have recently been proposed for their capability of treating a broad scope of complex systems. In this paper, we develop a new set of kernel GSA tools when only a single set of input–output data is available. Three key advances are made: (1) A new numerical estimator is proposed that demonstrates an empirical improvement over previous procedures. (2) A computational method for generating inner statistical functions from a single data set is presented. (3) A theoretical extension is made to define conditional sensitivity indices, which reveal the degree that the inputs carry shared information about the output when inherent input–input correlations are present. Utilizing these conditional sensitivity indices, a decomposition is derived for the output uncertainty based on what is called the optimal learning sequence of the input variables, which remains consistent when correlations exist between the input variables. Further, while these advances cover a range of GSA subjects, a common single data set numerical solution is provided by a technique known as the conditional mean embedding of distributions. The new methodology is implemented on benchmark systems to demonstrate the provided insights.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Vision–based Robust $\mathcal{H}$ ∞ Gain Scheduling Longitudinal and Lateral Following Controller for Autonomous Vehicles on Urban Curved Roads

Implementing advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) in congested and intricate urban traffic scenarios poses significant challenges. To address the frequent stop–and–go motions exhibited by autonomous vehicles (AVs) navigating urban roads with changes in curvature, we propose a vision–based robust $\mathcal{H}$ ∞ adaptive cruise control system (ACC) for longitudinal control, plus a lane keeping assist system (LKAS) for lateral control. For the vision-based ACC, a weighted probability objective function for the vehicle following behavior is formulated. We incorporate $\mathcal{H}$ ∞ performance and gain scheduling techniques to mitigate the impact of uncertainty in visual sensor measurements. Furthermore, the optimal time headway is scheduled based on the velocity to ensure traffic flow efficiency and safety during the vehicle following process. For the LKAS, we introduce a road curvature estimation method that integrates lane and vehicle dynamics information to obtain the lateral and heading offsets. Next, the design criterion of the observer–based robust gain scheduling lateral motion controller is established by linear matrix inequality (LMI). Here, a series of experiments conducted within a camera–in–loop platform validate the proposed method.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗