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DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling

Abstract. Evapotranspiration (ET) is critical in linking global water, carbon and energy cycles. However, direct measurement of global terrestrial ET is not feasible. Here, we first reviewed the basic theory and state-of-the-art approaches for estimating global terrestrial ET, including remote-sensing-based physical models, machine-learning algorithms and land surface models (LSMs). We then utilized 4 remote-sensing-based physical models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 LSMs to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in global terrestrial ET. The results showed that the ensemble means of annual global terrestrial ET estimated by these three categories of approaches agreed well, with values ranging from 589.6 mm yr-1 (6.56×104 km3 yr-1) to 617.1 mm yr-1 (6.87×10 4 km3 yr -1 ). For the period from 1982 to 2011, both the ensembles of remote-sensing-based physical models and machine-learning algorithms suggested increasing trends in global terrestrial ET (0.62 mm yr -2 with a significance level of p<0.05 and 0.38 mm yr -2 with a significance level of p<0.05, respectively). In contrast, the ensemble mean of the LSMs showed no statistically significant change (0.23 mm yr -2 , p>0.05), although many of the individual LSMs reproduced an increasing trend. Nevertheless, all 20 models used in this study showed that anthropogenic Earth greening had a positive role in increasing terrestrial ET. The concurrent small interannual variability, i.e., relative stability, found in all estimates of global terrestrial ET, suggests that a potential planetary boundary exists in regulating global terrestrial ET, with the value of this boundary being around 600 mm yr -1 . Uncertainties among approaches were identified in specific regions, particularly in the Amazon Basin and arid/semiarid regions. Improvements in parameterizing water stress and canopy dynamics, the utilization of new available satellite retrievals and deep-learning methods, and model–data fusion will advance our predictive understanding of global terrestrial ET.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Reward-Based Participant Management for Crowdsourcing Rainfall Monitoring: An Agent-Based Model Simulation

Crowdsourcing incorporates common citizens as rich sources of data and is promising for environmental monitoring. Here, we propose and test the idea of incorporating incentives to crowdsourcing management for rainfall monitoring. In particular, we model the allocation of incentives (quantitatively measurable and limited rewards) among crowdsourcing participants for a theoretical rainfall monitoring case. For this purpose, we develop an integrated model comprising a reward allocation component to represent the decision-making process of a central manager, an agent-based model to simulate the interactions between the manager and participants, and a rainfall simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of various reward allocation policies. We simulate six reward allocation policies of varying levels of administrative cost, and consideration of participant and rainfall spatial heterogeneities. The findings indicate the performance of each policy to improve with the reward budget and their spatial uniformity. Among the six policies tested, we discover that the participant density weighted maximum participation policy yields the most accurate estimation of rainfall intensity due to its more explicit consideration of the spatial distribution of participants; however, this policy associates with a high administrative cost. This highlights the trade-off between performance and cost in designing effective reward allocation policies. This paper provides a physical and behavior simulation modeling tool to study the feasibility and complexity of reward-based participant management for crowdsourcing rainfall monitoring. The proposed crowdsourcing method is beneficial for a wide range of applications that require rainfall data with fine resolution, such as storm water management and water availability and biomass assessment for food and energy crops.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of a rate-based ENRTL-RK process model for a water-lean solvent

Advanced water-lean solvents (WLS) for post-combustion CO2 capture offer several advantages over the aqueous amine solvents . WLS have lower parasitic energy penalty, lower corrosion, lower temperature and high-pressure CO2 regeneration leading to lower cost of CO2 capture. RTI International, with funding from the US Department of Energy, has been developing its novel water-lean solvent, that has shown specific reboiler duty of 2.3 GJ/t-CO2 at the 60-kWe pilot testing unit (Tiller Plant, SINTEF, Norway) and 2.6 GJ/t-CO2 at the engineering scale testing system (12 MWe) at the Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM) in Norway. All heat duties, including the one from TCM testing, were consistent with Aspen Plus modeling of the specific configuration of each test plant. This work focuses on the development of a detailed process model using in-house laboratory measurements and process data at pilot scale. The eNTRL-RK model used in this work is based on an unsymmetric activity coefficient model with the reference states chosen to be pure liquids for solvents and ideal dilute solution at unit solute molality (resulting in activity coefficient of unity at infinite dilution) for electrolytes. It uses the Redlich-Kwong equation of state for vapor phase properties and Henry’s law for solubility of supercritical gases. The model was validated using process data from the pilot-scale campaign at the Tiller plant, and the engineering scale test campaign at TCM. Data on CO2 capture rate, absorber, and regenerator temperature profiles and specific reboiler duties from two different test campaigns at Tiller and TCM, were used to further refine and validate the model and the model compares favorably to experimental data. The validation results against TCM campaign will be presented in this work.

CO2 capture↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of the Pan-Arctic Accelerated Rate of Sea Ice Decline in CMIP6 Historical Simulations

Abstract Arctic sea ice loss in response to a warming climate is assessed in 42 models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Sea ice observations show a significant acceleration in the rate of decline commencing near the turn of the twenty-first century. It is our assertion that state-of-the-art climate models should qualitatively reflect this accelerated trend within the limitations of internal variability and observational uncertainty. Our analysis shows that individual CMIP6 simulations of sea ice depict a wide range of model spread on biases and anomaly trends both across models and among their ensemble members. While the CMIP6 multimodel mean captures the observed sea ice area (SIA) decline relatively well, an individual model’s ability to represent the acceleration in sea ice decline remains a challenge. Seventeen (40%) out of 42 CMIP6 models and 37 (13%) out of the total 286 ensemble members reasonably capture the observed trends and acceleration in SIA decline. In addition, a larger ensemble size appears to increase the odds for a model to include at least one ensemble member skillfully representing the accelerated SIA trends. Simulations of sea ice volume (SIV) show much larger spread and uncertainty than SIA; however, due to limited availability of sea ice thickness data, these are not as well constrained by observations. Finally, we find that models with more ocean heat transport simulate larger sea ice declines, which suggests an emergent constraint in CMIP6 ensembles. This relationship points to the need for better understanding and modeling of ice–ocean interactions, especially with respect to frazil ice growth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

3D Modelling of the Lithium Injection Experiment in H-Mode Plasma of EAST

Investigations of lithium transport in H-mode plasma of EAST tokamak have been performed by the three-dimensional fluid code EMC3-EIRENE. The simulation results show that the toroidally-localized lithium injection at the low field side (LFS) leads to a toroidally non-axisymmetric distribution of the Li 1+ and Li 2+ ions. The field line tracing approach is utilized to carry out a detailed study on the distributions of the Li 1+ and Li 2+ ions. It is found that Li 1+ ions mainly reside at the LFS while Li 2+ ions can transport from LFS to the high field side. The relationship between mean free path and connection length for Li 1+ and Li 2+ ions has been discussed. Here, the 3D line-integration images of deuterium and lithium emission spectra modelled by EMC3-EIRENE are in qualitative consistency with the experiment results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improving power grid transient stability and transfer capability using HVDC emergency power controls

In the future, with high levels of renewable energy sources penetration, the transmission corridors will have to be flexible to operate under faster transients and variable power flows. Fast power ramping and overloading capabilities of HVDC system can be utilized to ensure transient stability of the interconnected power grid. In this paper, HVDC auxiliary controllers have been studied that can provide the power grid with additional synchronizing torques through fast DC power changes in response to arising system conditions. The effectiveness of the auxiliary controllers in improving transient stability is demonstrated by performing dynamic simulations on the detailed model of the Western Interconnection system (WECC).

Sundaresh, Lakshmi↗

NASA NTRS2015

Differences Between the HUT Snow Emission Model and MEMLS and Their Effects on Brightness Temperature Simulation

Microwave emission models are a critical component of snow water equivalent retrieval algorithms applied to passive microwave measurements. Several such emission models exist, but their differences need to be systematically compared. This paper compares the basic theories of two models: the multiple-layer HUT (Helsinki University of Technology) model and MEMLS (Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks). By comparing the mathematical formulation side-by-side, three major differences were identified: (1) by assuming the scattered intensity is mostly (96) in the forward direction, the HUT model simplifies the radiative transfer (RT) equation into 1-flux; whereas MEMLS uses a 2-flux theory; (2) the HUT scattering coefficient is much larger than MEMLS; (3 ) MEMLS considers the trapped radiation inside snow due to internal reflection by a 6-flux model, which is not included in HUT. Simulation experiments indicate that, the large scattering coefficient of the HUT model compensates for its large forward scattering ratio to some extent, but the effects of 1-flux simplification and the trapped radiation still result in different T(sub B) simulations between the HUT model and MEMLS. The models were compared with observations of natural snow cover at Sodankyl, Finland; Churchill, Canada; and Colorado, USA. No optimization of the snow grain size was performed. It shows that HUT model tends to under estimate T(sub B) for deep snow. MEMLS with the physically-based improved Born approximation performed best among the models, with a bias of -1.4 K, and an RMSE of 11.0 K.

Pan, Jinmei↗

DOE OSTI2023

Thirdhand tobacco smoke exposure increases the genetic background-dependent risk of pan-tumor development in Collaborative Cross mice

Increasing evidence has shown that thirdhand smoke (THS) exposure is likely to induce adverse health effects. An important knowledge gap remains in our understanding of THS exposure related to cancer risk in the human population. Population-based animal models are useful and powerful in investigating the interplay between host genetics and THS exposure on cancer risk. Here, we used the Collaborative Cross (CC) mouse population-based model system, which recapitulates the genetic and phenotypic diversity observed in the human population, to assess cancer risk after a short period of exposure, between 4 and 9 weeks of age. Eight CC strains (CC001, CC019, CC026, CC036, CC037, CC041, CC042 and CC051) were included in our study. We quantified pan-tumor incidence, tumor burden per mouse, organ tumor spectrum and tumor-free survival until 18 months of age. At the population level, we observed a significantly increased pan-tumor incidence and tumor burden per mouse in THS-treated mice as compared to the control (p = 3.04E-06). Lung and liver tissues exhibited the largest risk of undergoing tumorigenesis after THS exposure. Tumor-free survival was significantly reduced in THS-treated mice compared to control (p = 0.044). At the individual strain level, we observed a large variation in tumor incidence across the 8 CC strains. CC036 and CC041 exhibited a significant increase in pan-tumor incidence (p = 0.0084 and p = 0.000066, respectively) after THS exposure compared to control. We conclude that early-life THS exposure increases tumor development in CC mice and that host genetic background plays an important role in individual susceptibility to THS-induced tumorigenesis. Genetic background is an important factor that should be taken into account when determining human cancer risk of THS exposure.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Interactions Between Asian Air Pollution and Monsoon System: South Asia (ROSES-2014 ACMAP)

Asia's rapid economic growth over the past several decades has brought a remarkable increase in air pollution levels in that region. High concentrations of aerosols (also known as particulate matter or PM) from pollution sources pose major health hazards to half of the world population in Asia including South Asia. How do pollution and dust aerosols regulate the monsoon circulation and rainfall via scattering and absorbing solar radiation, changing the atmospheric heating rates, and modifying the cloud properties? We conducted a series of regional model experiments with NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecast (NUWRF) regional model with coupled aerosol-chemistry-radiation-microphysics processes over South Asia for winter, pre-monsoon, and monsoon seasons to address this question. This study investigates the worsening air quality problem in South Asia by focusing on the interactions between pollution and South Asian monsoon, not merely focusing on the increase of pollutant emissions.

regional model experiments with NASA-Unified Weath↗

NASA NTRS2007

Reactive Nitrogen Distribution and Partitioning in the North American Troposphere and Lowermost Stratosphere

A comprehensive group of reactive nitrogen species (NO, NOz, HN03, HOzN02, PANs, alkyl nitrates, and aerosol-NO3) were measured over North America during July/August 2004 from the NASA DC-8 platform (0.1 - 12 km). Nitrogen containing tracers of biomass combustion (HCN and CH3CN) were also measured along with a host of other gaseous (CO, VOC, OVOC, halocarbon) and aerosol tracers. Clean background air as well as air with influences from biogenic emissions, anthropogenic pollution, biomass combustion, convection, lightning, and the stratosphere was sampled over the continental United States, the Atlantic, and the Pacific. The North American upper troposphere (UT) was found to be greatly influenced by both lightning NO, and surface pollution lofted via convection and contained elevated concentrations of PAN, ozone, hydrocarbons, and NO,. Observational data suggest that lightning was a far greater contributor to NO, in the UT than previously believed. PAN provided a dominant reservoir of reactive nitrogen in the UT while nitric acid dominated in the lower troposphere (LT). Peroxynitric acid (H02N02) was present in sizable concentrations peaking at around 8 km. Aerosol nitrate appeared to be mostly contained in large soil based particles in the LT. Plumes from Alaskan fires contained large amounts of PAN and aerosol nitrate but little enhancement in ozone. A comparison of observed data with simulations from four 3-D models shows significant differences between observations and models as well as among models. We investigate the partitioning and interplay of the reactive nitrogen species within characteristic air masses and further examine their role in ozone formation.

Singh, H. B.↗

DOE OSTI2022

De novo designed protein inhibitors of amyloid aggregation and seeding

Neurodegenerative diseases are characterized by the pathologic accumulation of aggregated proteins. Known as amyloid, these fibrillar aggregates include proteins such as tau and amyloid-β (Aβ) in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and alpha-synuclein (αSyn) in Parkinson’s disease (PD). The development and spread of amyloid fibrils within the brain correlates with disease onset and progression, and inhibiting amyloid formation is a possible route toward therapeutic development. Recent advances have enabled the determination of amyloid fibril structures to atomic-level resolution, improving the possibility of structure-based inhibitor design. In this work, we use these amyloid structures to design inhibitors that bind to the ends of fibrils, “capping” them so as to prevent further growth. Using de novo protein design, we develop a library of miniprotein inhibitors of 35 to 48 residues that target the amyloid structures of tau, Aβ, and αSyn. Biophysical characterization of top in silico designed inhibitors shows they form stable folds, have no sequence similarity to naturally occurring proteins, and specifically prevent the aggregation of their targeted amyloid-prone proteins in vitro. The inhibitors also prevent the seeded aggregation and toxicity of fibrils in cells. In vivo evaluation reveals their ability to reduce aggregation and rescue motor deficits in Caenorhabditis elegans models of PD and AD.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probing configurational disorder in ZnGeN 2 using cluster-based Monte Carlo

ZnGeN 2 is sought as a semiconductor with comparable lattice constant to GaN and tunable band gap for integration in optoelectronic devices. Configurational disorder on the cation sublattice of ZnGeN 2 can strongly modify the electronic structure compared to the ordered material, and both ordered and disordered forms of ZnGeN 2 are candidates for light-emitting diodes and other emitters. The nonisovalent character of the disordered species (Zn 2+ and Ge 4+ ) subjects the cation ordering to strong short-range order effects. To model these effects, we use Monte Carlo (MC) simulations utilizing a cluster expansion to approximate formation enthalpy. Representative disordered configurations in 1024-atom supercells are relaxed in density functional theory calculations. From the MC structures, we extract a short-range order parameter (the N-cation coordination motif), and two long-range order parameters (Bragg-Williams and stretching parameters), and examine their correlations. We perform a thermodynamic integration to determine the mixing entropy and free energy. ZnGeN 2 exhibits a first-order phase transition with pronounced discontinuities in enthalpy and entropy, as well as in the structural order parameters. We discuss the relationship between the effective temperature used in the MC simulation and the growth temperatures in experiment in relation to the crossover from the nonequilibrium to the equilibrium growth regime. This work expands on current models of site disorder in ZnGeN 2 and provides atomic structure models with a systematic variation of the degree of cation disorder.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS1992

Internally heated mantle convection and the thermal and degassing history of the earth

An internally heated model of parameterized whole mantle convection with viscosity dependent on temperature and volatile content is examined. The model is run for 4l6 Gyr, and temperature, heat flow, degassing and regassing rates, stress, and viscosity are calculated. A nominal case is established which shows good agreement with accepted mantle values. The effects of changing various parameters are also tested. All cases show rapid cooling early in the planet's history and strong self-regulation of viscosity due to the temperature and volatile-content dependence. The effects of weakly stress-dependent viscosity are examined within the bounds of this model and are found to be small. Mantle water is typically outgassed rapidly to reach an equilibrium concentration on a time scale of less than 200 Myr for almost all models, the main exception being for models which start out with temperatures well below the melting temperature.

Williams, David R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Even-even Nd isotopes in an S D -pair shell model

Nucleon pair shell model truncated to SD collective pair subspace (SDPSM) was applied to study the properties of the low-lying states of the even-even 144–156 Nd isotopes. It is found that, within the M scheme, the systems with the number N ν = 7 of neutron pairs (or the number N π = 7 of proton pairs) can be studied in the SDPSM for the first time. The results show that the properties of the low-lying states of the even-even Nd isotopes can be reproduced approximately, and the even-even 144–15 6Nd isotopes may be a good candidate for the first-order shape phase transition.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Corrosion of Al-Fe self-pierce riveting joints with multiphysics-based modeling and experiments

Self-piercing riveting (SPR) is an extensively used joining technique to assemble dissimilar materials. However, this joining of the dissimilar materials can generate galvanic/crevice corrosion, which can drastically impact the mechanical properties and the service life of the joint. In this study, a multiphysics-based hybrid modeling approach is developed for the galvanic corrosion of the Al-Fe SPR joints, which can consider the corrosion initiation and corrosion evaluation jointly. Experimental studies are first performed to extract information regarding the corrosion initiation sites, corrosion evolution and overall corrosion induced material loss in SPR joints. The initiation information is then passed onto the multiphysics FE model thus making it a hybrid model. This model can help understand the influences of metal microstructure on the corrosion propagation while the morphology changes can also be analyzed. Using the developed hybrid modeling approach, thorough parametric studies can be performed to explore the coupled impacts of multiple corrosion factors on the corrosion behavior of the joints. The developed hybrid model is validated on the prediction of galvanic corrosion for the SPR joints by comparing with experimental observations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Pan-YANG/RA-ABM

Crowd-sourcing incorporates common citizens as rich sources of data and is promising for environmental monitoring. In this paper, we propose and test the idea of incorporating incentives to crowd-sourcing management for rainfall monitoring. Specifically, we modeled the allocation of incentives (quantitatively measurable and limited rewards) among crowd-sourcing participants for a theoretical rainfall monitoring case. For this purpose, we developed an integrated model comprising a reward allocation component to represent the decision‐making process of a central manager, an agent‐based model to simulate the interactions between the manager and participants, and a rainfall simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of various reward allocation policies. We simulated six reward allocation policies of varying levels of administrative cost, and consideration of participant and rainfall spatial heterogeneities. The results suggest the performance of each policy to improve with the reward budget and their spatial uniformity. Among the six policies tested, we found that the participant density weighted maximum participation policy yields the most accurate estimation of rainfall intensity due to its more explicit consideration of the spatial distribution of participants; however, this policy associates with a high administrative cost. This highlights the trade‐off between performance and cost in designing effective reward allocation policies. This paper provides a physical and behavior simulation modeling tool to study the feasibility and complexity of reward‐based participant management for crowd-sourcing rainfall monitoring. The proposed crowd-sourcing method is beneficial for a wide range of applications that require rainfall data with fine resolution, such as stormwater management and water availability and biomass assessment for food and energy crops.

Yang, Pan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Targeting a proteolytic neoepitope on CUB domain containing protein 1 ( CDCP1 ) for RAS -driven cancers

Extracellular proteolysis is frequently dysregulated in disease and can generate proteoforms with unique neoepitopes not found in healthy tissue. Here, we demonstrate that Abs that selectively recognize a proteolytic neoepitope on CUB domain containing protein 1 (CDCP1) could enable more effective and safer treatments for solid tumors. CDCP1 is highly overexpressed in RAS-driven cancers, and its ectodomain is cleaved by extracellular proteases. Biochemical, biophysical, and structural characterization revealed that the 2 cleaved fragments of CDCP1 remain tightly associated with minimal proteolysis-induced conformational change. Using differential phage display, we generated recombinant Abs that are exquisitely selective to cleaved CDCP1 with no detectable binding to the uncleaved form. These Abs potently targeted cleaved CDCP1-expressing cancer cells as an Ab-drug conjugate, an Ab-radionuclide conjugate, and a bispecific T cell engager. In a syngeneic pancreatic tumor model, these cleaved-specific Abs showed tumor-specific localization and antitumor activity with superior safety profiles compared with a pan-CDCP1 approach. Targeting proteolytic neoepitopes could provide an orthogonal "AND" gate for improving the therapeutic index.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Horne et al. (2026) supporting files - WRF-LES model outputs for a summer heatwave event on June 2025 in Baltimore, MD

Brief Description Shown is the supporting information for Horne et al. (2026). These files include all outputs from the WRF model simulations and the observational datasets used for comparison in the study. Scripts are provided so users can recreate the manuscript's figures using the provided observational and modeling data. For more information regarding the study, please contact the primary author of the associated manuscript, Jason Horne. Horne, J. P., Pan, Y., Davis, K. J., Waugh, D., Ahlswede, B. J., Prince, N. E. (2026). Simulating near-surface environments in urban neighborhoods using WRF-LES: A case study of classic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) during a heatwave event JAMES. (to be submitted)

atmosphere↗