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NASA NTRS2010

What if Things Get Worse? Really Grand Challenges for Modeling and Simulation in a Risky and Complex World or Modeling and Simulation for the "Greater Good"?

Today Modeling and Simulation-- ---as an important practice or industry or area of expertise ----- is at a complex crossroad - a sort of cyber-highway--where these complexities meet-technical, economic, environmental, geopolitical and cultural. They may converge or collide. Let's not kid ourselves. It is all too much for anyone person or organization Malcolm Gladwell said it. "We have constructed a world in which the potential for high tech catastrophe is embedded in the fabric of everyday life." We are surrounded by problems that scream at us from our television, Internet and social networks along with billboards and protest signs. We face not just high tech catastrophes but, also, landslides, earthquakes, tornados, floods and hurricanes and large-scale criminality. Evil, war, famine and pestilence have not gone away. It is all too much to think about. My friend, George Peabody, who taught me everything I know about power said that addressing such issues requires that we constantly build our network, information resources and the credibility and visibility of our work. That is how we will build the power of simulation so it can change the world --even maybe, save it. We need all the help we can get and give one another because our human early warning systems appear to be out of kilter. We seem to have trouble imagining how small failings can continue to lead to catastrophic disaster. Think about O-rings and blowout preventers. One is reminded of the old nursery rhyme, "For want of a nail, a shoe was lost! for want of a shoe the horse was lost! for want of a rider the battle was lost and so the kingdom fell." Although the investigation will take more time for real answers, it is worrisome that a rig worker reported to the BBC that-- weeks before the explosion of Deep Ocean Horizon. -he identified a leak in the oil rig's safety equipment -the Control Pod of the blowout preventer which has giant shears designed to cut and seal off the well's main pipe. With both electronics and hydraulics, these are effectively the brains of the blowout preventer. No one fixed it, he alleges, they just shut it down and relied on the other control pod -an act deemed unacceptable by petroleum expert, Tad Patzek, at the University of Texas. The US Congress has identified numerous other problems with the blowout preventer, including design problems and unexpected modifications.

Fifrey, Priscilla↗

NASA NTRS2011

Robust IR Remote Sensing Technique of the Total Column of Trace Gases Including Carbon Dioxide and Methane

Progress on the development of a differential radiometer based upon the Fabry-Perot interferometer (FPI) for methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (C02) detection in the atmosphere is presented. Methane measurements are becoming increasingly important as a component of NASA's programs to understand the global carbon cycle and quantifY the threat of global warming. Methane is the third most important greenhouse gas in the Earth's radiation budget (after water vapor and carbon dioxide) and the second most important anthropogenic contributor to global warming. The importance of global warming and air quality to society caused the National Research Council to recommend that NASA develop the following missions [1]: ASCENDS (Active Sensing of C02 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons), GEOCAPE (Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events), and GACM (Global Atmosphere Composition Mission). Though methane measurements are not specifically called out in these missions, ongoing environmental changes have raised the importance of understanding the methane budget. In the decadal survey is stated that "to close the carbon budget, we would also address methane, but the required technology is not obvious at this time. If appropriate and cost-effective methane technology becomes available, we strongly recommend adding a methane capability". In its 2007 report the International Panel on Climate Change identified methane as a key uncertainty in our understanding saying that the causes of recent changes in the growth rate of atmospheric CH4 are not well understood. What we do know is that methane arises from a number of natural sources including wet lands and the oceans plus man made sources from agriculture, as well as coal and petroleum production and distribution. It has recently been pointed out that large amount of methane are frozen in the permafrost of Canada and Siberia. There is a fear that melting of this permafrost driven by global warming may release large amounts of methane very suddenly further exacerbating climate change [2]. Last year our group began a joint effort with Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory to investigate the possibility of developing a small unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped to measure greenhouse gases-particularly methane. Although we are targeting our system for smaller UAV's the instrument will be directly applicable to missions involving larger NASA UAV's such as Global Hawk or even on missions utilizing manned aircraft. Because of its small size, inherent ruggedness and simplicity some version of our proposed instrument may find a role as a satellite instrument for NASA or NOAA.

Georgieva, E. M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Simulations of Evaporating Multicomponent Fuel Drops

A paper presents additional information on the subject matter of Model of Mixing Layer With Multicomponent Evaporating Drops (NPO-30505), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 28, No. 3 (March 2004), page 55. To recapitulate: A mathematical model of a three-dimensional mixing layer laden with evaporating fuel drops composed of many chemical species has been derived. The model is used to perform direct numerical simulations in continuing studies directed toward understanding the behaviors of sprays of liquid petroleum fuels in furnaces, industrial combustors, and engines. The model includes governing equations formulated in an Eulerian and a Lagrangian reference frame for the gas and drops, respectively, and incorporates a concept of continuous thermodynamics, according to which the chemical composition of a fuel is described by use of a distribution function. In this investigation, the distribution function depends solely on the species molar weight. The present paper reiterates the description of the model and discusses further in-depth analysis of the previous results as well as results of additional numerical simulations assessing the effect of the mass loading. The paper reiterates the conclusions reported in the cited previous article, and states some new conclusions. Some new conclusions are: 1. The slower evaporation and the evaporation/ condensation process for multicomponent-fuel drops resulted in a reduced drop-size polydispersity compared to their single-component counterpart. 2. The inhomogeneity in the spatial distribution of the species in the layer increases with the initial mass loading. 3. As evaporation becomes faster, the assumed invariant form of the molecular- weight distribution during evaporation becomes inaccurate.

Bellan, Josette↗

NASA NTRS2011

Atmospheric and Soil Carbon and Halophytes

World population is anticipated to grow 40% within 40-50 years (2008 baseline) with unprecedented demands for energy, food, freshwater, and clean environments. At 43% of the total landmass, exploiting the Earth's arid and semi-arid lands becomes a matter of necessity. Compared with glycophyte agriculture, we view seawater and brackish water halophyte saline agriculture in its nascent stage and see the need to explore and farm on a massive scale. Halophyte farming costs should be the same as glycophyte cellulosic biomass farming; processing for cellulosic matter should also be applicable. Halophyte life cycle analyses (LCA) within the fueling debate are incomplete, yet glycophyte LCA favors biomass fueling. The Biomass Revolution is in progress. The capacity, cost, and logistics required for biomass replacement of petroleum-based fuels, however, will require all feedstock sources and regional cooperative productivity, technical investments, and both the participation and cooperation of the American farmer and global farm community.

Hendricks, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Characterization of Catalyst Materials for Production of Aerospace Fuels

Due to environmental, economic, and security issues, there is a greater need for cleaner alternative fuels. There will undoubtedly be a shift from crude oil to non-petroleum sources as a feedstock for aviation (and other transportation) fuels. Additionally, efforts are concentrated on reducing costs coupled with fuel production from non-conventional sources. One solution to this issue is Fischer-Tropsch gas-to-liquid technology. Fischer-Tropsch processing of synthesis gas (CO/H2) produces a complex product stream of paraffins, olefins, and oxygenated compounds such as alcohols and aldehydes. The Fisher-Tropsch process can produce a cleaner diesel oil fraction with a high cetane number (typically above 70) without any sulfur or aromatic compounds. This process is most commonly catalyzed by heterogeneous (in this case, silver and platinum) catalysts composed of cobalt supported on alumina or unsupported alloyed iron powders. Physisorption, chemisorptions, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) are described to better understand the potential performance of Fischer-Tropsch cobalt on alumina catalysts promoted with silver and platinum. The overall goal is to preferentially produce C8 to C18 paraffin compounds for use as aerospace fuels. Progress towards this goal will eventually be updated and achieved by a more thorough understanding of the characterization of catalyst materials. This work was supported by NASA s Subsonic Fixed Wing and In-situ Resource Utilization projects.

DeLaRee, Ana B.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Fischer-Tropsch Catalyst for Aviation Fuel Production

As the oil supply declines, there is a greater need for cleaner alternative fuels. There will undoubtedly be a shift from crude oil to nonpetroleum sources as a feedstock for aviation (and other transportation) fuels. The Fischer-Tropsch process uses a gas mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen which is converted into various liquid hydrocarbons; this versatile gas-to-liquid technology produces a complex product stream of paraffins, olefins, and oxygenated compounds such as alcohols and aldehydes. The Fischer-Tropsch process can produce a cleaner diesel oil fraction with a high cetane number (typically above 70) without any sulfur and aromatic compounds. It is most commonly catalyzed by cobalt supported on alumina, silica, or titania or unsupported alloyed iron powders. Cobalt is typically used more often than iron, in that cobalt is a longer-active catalyst, has lower water-gas shift activity, and lower yield of modified products. Promoters are valuable in improving Fischer-Tropsch catalyst as they can increase cobalt oxide dispersion, enhance the reduction of cobalt oxide to the active metal phase, stabilize a high metal surface area, and improve mechanical properties. Our goal is to build up the specificity of the Fischer-Tropsch catalyst while adding less-costly transition metals as promoters; the more common promoters used in Fischer-Tropsch synthesis are rhenium, platinum, and ruthenium. In this report we will describe our preliminary efforts to design and produce catalyst materials to achieve our goal of preferentially producing C8 to C18 paraffin compounds in the NASA Glenn Research Center Gas-To-Liquid processing plant. Efforts at NASA Glenn Research Center for producing green fuels using non-petroleum feedstocks support both the Sub-sonic Fixed Wing program of Fundamental Aeronautics and the In Situ Resource Utilization program of the Exploration Technology Development and Demonstration program.

DeLaRee, Ana B.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Characterization of Catalyst Materials for Production of Aerospace Fuels

Best, Lauren M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Terrestrial Applications of Extreme Environment Stirling Space Power Systems

NASA has been developing power systems capable of long-term operation in extreme environments such as the surface of Venus. This technology can use any external heat source to efficiently provide electrical power and cooling; and it is designed to be extremely efficient and reliable for extended space missions. Terrestrial applications include: use in electric hybrid vehicles; distributed home co-generation/cooling; and quiet recreational vehicle power generation. This technology can reduce environmental emissions, petroleum consumption, and noise while eliminating maintenance and environmental damage from automotive fluids such as oil lubricants and air conditioning coolant. This report will provide an overview of this new technology and its applications.

Dyson, Rodger. W.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Alternate-Fueled Combustor-Sector Performance: (A) Combustor Performance; (B) Combustor Emissions - Parts A and B

Alternate aviation fuels for military or commercial use are required to satisfy MIL-DTL-83133F(2008) or ASTM D 7566 (2010) standards, respectively, and are classified as "drop-in" fuel replacements. To satisfy legacy issues, blends to 50% alternate fuel with petroleum fuels are certified individually on the basis of processing and assumed to be feedstock agnostic. Adherence to alternate fuels and fuel blends requires "smart fueling systems" or advanced fuel-flexible systems, including combustors and engines, without significant sacrifice in performance or emissions requirements. This paper provides preliminary performance (Part A) and emissions and particulates (Part B) combustor sector data. The data are for nominal inlet conditions at 225 psia and 800 F (1.551 MPa and 700 K), for synthetic-paraffinic-kerosene- (SPK-) type (Fisher-Tropsch (FT)) fuel and blends with JP-8+100 relative to JP-8+100 as baseline fueling. Assessments are made of the change in combustor efficiency, wall temperatures, emissions, and luminosity with SPK of 0%, 50%, and 100% fueling composition at 3% combustor pressure drop. The performance results (Part A) indicate no quantifiable differences in combustor efficiency, a general trend to lower liner and higher core flow temperatures with increased FT fuel blends. In general, emissions data (Part B) show little differences, but with percent increase in FT-SPK-type fueling, particulate emissions and wall temperatures are less than with baseline JP-8. High-speed photography illustrates both luminosity and combustor dynamic flame characteristics.

Shouse, D. T.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Thermal Stability Results of a Fischer-Tropsch Fuel With Various Blends of Aromatic Solution

Fischer-Tropsch (F-T) jet fuel composition differs from petroleum-based, conventional commercial jet fuel because of differences in feedstock and production methodology. F-T fuel typically has a lower aromatic and sulfur content and consists primarily of iso and normal paraffins. The ASTM D3241 specification for Jet Fuel Thermal Oxidation Test (JFTOT) break point testing method was used to test the breakpoint of a baseline commercial grade F-T jet fuel, and various blends of this F-T fuel with an aromatic solution. The goal of this research is to determine the effect of aromatic content on the thermal stability of F-T fuel. The testing completed in this report was supported by the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Subsonic Fixed Wing Project. Two different aromatic content fuels from Rentech, as well as these fuels with added aromatic blend were analyzed for thermal stability using the JFTOT method. Preliminary results indicate a reduction in thermal stability occurs upon increasing the aromatic content to 10% by adding an aromatic blend to the neat fuel. These results do not specify a failure based on pressure drop, but only on tube color. It is unclear whether tube color correlates to more deposition on the tube surface or not. Further research is necessary in order to determine if these failures are true failures based on tube color. Research using ellipsometry to determine tube deposit thickness rather than color will be continued in follow-up of this study.

Lindsey, Jennifer↗

NASA NTRS2013

Extreme Environment Capable, Modular and Scalable Power Processing Unit for Solar Electric Propulsion

This paper is to present a concept of a modular and scalable High Temperature Boost (HTB) Power Processing Unit (PPU) capable of operating at temperatures beyond the standard military temperature range. The various extreme environments technologies are also described as the fundamental technology path to this concept. The proposed HTB PPU is intended for power processing in the area of space solar electric propulsion, where reduction of in-space mass and volume are desired, and sometimes even critical, to achieve the goals of future space flight missions. The concept of the HTB PPU can also be applied to other extreme environment applications, such as geothermal and petroleum deep-well drilling, where higher temperature operation is required.

Carr, Gregory A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Gulf of Mexico Air Quality: CALIPSO Support for Gulf of Mexico Air Quality Relating to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

On April 20, 2010, an oil platform belonging to BP exploded and leaked a huge volume of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. In an effort to control the spread of the oil, BP applied dispersants such as Corexit and conducted in-situ burnings of the oil. This catastrophe created a complex chain of events that affected not only the fragile water and land ecosystems, but the humans who breathe the air every day. Thousands of people were exposed to fumes associated with oil vapors from the spill, burning of the oil, and the toxic mixture of dispersants. While aiding in clean-up efforts, local fishermen were directly exposure to fumes when working on the Gulf. A notable amount of Gulf Coast residents were also exposed to the oil fumes as seasonal southeasterly winds blew vapors toward land. The Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) found in oil vapors include: benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylene, naphthalene, hydrogen sulfide and particulate matter (PM). Increases in water temperature and sunlight due to the summer season allow for these VOCs and PM to evaporate into the air more rapidly. Aside from the VOCs found in oil vapors, the dispersant being used to break up the oil is highly toxic and is thought to be even more toxic than the oil itself (EPA website, 2010). To protect human health, the environment, and to make informed policy decisions relevant to the spill, the EPA Region 6 has continuously monitored the affected areas carefully for levels of pollutants in the outdoor air that are associated with petroleum products and the burning of oil along the coast. In an effort to prevent, prepare for, and respond to future oil spills that occur in and around inland waters of the United States, the EPA has been working with local, state, and federal response partners. Air quality measurements were collected by the EPA at five active monitoring systems stationed along the coast.

Nguyen, Myngoc T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

On the Sources of Methane to the Los Angeles Atmosphere

We use historical and new atmospheric trace gas observations to refine the estimated source of methane (CH4) emitted into California's South Coast Air Basin (the larger Los Angeles metropolitan region). Referenced to the California Air Resources Board (CARB) CO emissions inventory, total CH4 emissions are 0.44 +/- 0.15 Tg each year. To investigate the possible contribution of fossil fuel emissions, we use ambient air observations of methane (CH4), ethane (C2H6), and carbon monoxide (CO), together with measured C2H6 to CH4 enhancement ratios in the Los Angeles natural gas supply. The observed atmospheric C2H6 to CH4 ratio during the ARCTAS (2008) and CalNex (2010) aircraft campaigns is similar to the ratio of these gases in the natural gas supplied to the basin during both these campaigns. Thus, at the upper limit (assuming that the only major source of atmospheric C2H6 is fugitive emissions from the natural gas infrastructure) these data are consistent with the attribution of most (0.39 +/- 0.15 Tg yr-1) of the excess CH4 in the basin to uncombusted losses from the natural gas system (approximately 2.5-6% of natural gas delivered to basin customers). However, there are other sources of C2H6 in the region. In particular, emissions of C2H6 (and CH4) from natural gas seeps as well as those associated with petroleum production, both of which are poorly known, will reduce the inferred contribution of the natural gas infrastructure to the total CH4 emissions, potentially significantly. This study highlights both the value and challenges associated with the use of ethane as a tracer for fugitive emissions from the natural gas production and distribution system.

Wennberg, Paul O.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Alternate-Fueled Combustor-Sector Emissions

In order to meet rapidly growing demand for fuel, as well as address environmental concerns, the aviation industry has been testing alternate fuels for performance and technical usability in commercial and military aircraft. In order to make alternate fuels (and blends) a viable option for aviation, the fuel must be able to perform at a similar or higher level than traditional petroleum fuel. They also attempt to curb harmful emissions, and therefore a truly effective alternate fuel would emit at or under the level of currently used fuel. This report analyzes data from gaseous and particulate emissions of an aircraft combustor sector. The data were evaluated at various inlet conditions, including variation in pressure and temperature, fuel-to-air ratios, and percent composition of alternate fuel. Traditional JP-8+100 data were taken as a baseline, and blends of JP-8+100 with synthetic-paraffinic-kerosene (SPK) fuel (Fischer-Tropsch (FT)) were used for comparison. Gaseous and particulate emissions, as well as flame luminosity, were assessed for differences between FT composition of 0, 50, and 100 percent. The data show that SPK fuel (an FT-derived fuel) had slightly lower harmful gaseous emissions, and smoke number information corroborated the hypothesis that SPK-FT fuels are cleaner burning fuels.

Saxena, Nikita T.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Turbulence Modeling Verification and Validation

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software that solves the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations has been in routine use for more than a quarter of a century. It is currently employed not only for basic research in fluid dynamics, but also for the analysis and design processes in many industries worldwide, including aerospace, automotive, power generation, chemical manufacturing, polymer processing, and petroleum exploration. A key feature of RANS CFD is the turbulence model. Because the RANS equations are unclosed, a model is necessary to describe the effects of the turbulence on the mean flow, through the Reynolds stress terms. The turbulence model is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in RANS CFD, and most models are known to be flawed in one way or another. Alternative methods such as direct numerical simulations (DNS) and large eddy simulations (LES) rely less on modeling and hence include more physics than RANS. In DNS all turbulent scales are resolved, and in LES the large scales are resolved and the effects of the smallest turbulence scales are modeled. However, both DNS and LES are too expensive for most routine industrial usage on today's computers. Hybrid RANS-LES, which blends RANS near walls with LES away from walls, helps to moderate the cost while still retaining some of the scale-resolving capability of LES, but for some applications it can still be too expensive. Even considering its associated uncertainties, RANS turbulence modeling has proved to be very useful for a wide variety of applications. For example, in the aerospace field, many RANS models are considered to be reliable for computing attached flows. However, existing turbulence models are known to be inaccurate for many flows involving separation. Research has been ongoing for decades in an attempt to improve turbulence models for separated and other nonequilibrium flows. When developing or improving turbulence models, both verification and validation are important steps in the process. Verification insures that the CFD code is solving the equations as intended (no errors in the implementation). This is typically done either through the method of manufactured solutions (MMS) or through careful step-by-step comparisons with other verified codes. After the verification step is concluded, validation is performed to document the ability of the turbulence model to represent different types of flow physics. Validation can involve a large number of test case comparisons with experiments, theory, or DNS. Organized workshops have proved to be valuable resources for the turbulence modeling community in its pursuit of turbulence modeling verification and validation. Workshop contributors using different CFD codes run the same cases, often according to strict guidelines, and compare results. Through these comparisons, it is often possible to (1) identify codes that have likely implementation errors, and (2) gain insight into the capabilities and shortcomings of different turbulence models to predict the flow physics associated with particular types of flows. These are valuable lessons because they help bring consistency to CFD codes by encouraging the correction of faulty programming and facilitating the adoption of better models. They also sometimes point to specific areas needed for improvement in the models. In this paper, several recent workshops are summarized primarily from the point of view of turbulence modeling verification and validation. Furthermore, the NASA Langley Turbulence Modeling Resource website is described. The purpose of this site is to provide a central location where RANS turbulence models are documented, and test cases, grids, and data are provided. The goal of this paper is to provide an abbreviated survey of turbulence modeling verification and validation efforts, summarize some of the outcomes, and give some ideas for future endeavors in this area.

Rumsey, Christopher L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Martian Oceans: Old Debate - New Insights

The possibility of an ancient ocean in the northern lowlands of Mars has been discussed for decades [1-14], but the subject remains controversial [15-20]. Among the many unique features of the northern lowlands is the extensive development of "giant polygons" - polygonal landforms that range from 1 to 20 km across. The kilometer-scale size of these features distinguishes them from a variety of smaller polygons (usually < 250 m) on Mars that have been compared to terrestrial analogs such as ice-wedge and desiccation features. However, until recently, geologists were aware of no examples of polygons on Earth comparable in scale to the giant polygons of Mars, so there were no good analogs from which to draw interpretations. That picture has changed with 3D seismic data acquired by the petroleum industry in exploration of offshore basins. The new data reveal kilometer-scale polygonal features in more than 50 offshore basins on Earth]. These features provide a credible analog for the giant polygons of Mars.

Oehler, Dorothy Z.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Central Africa Energy: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Explore Flared Gas as an Energy Source Alternative to Biomass in Central Africa

Much of Central Africa's economy is centered on oil production. Oil deposits lie below vast amounts of compressed natural gas. The latter is often flared off during oil extraction due to a lack of the infrastructure needed to utilize it for productive energy generation. Though gas flaring is discouraged by many due to its contributions to greenhouse emissions, it represents a waste process and is rarely tracked or recorded in this region. In contrast to this energy waste, roughly 80% of Africa's population lacks access to electricity and in turn uses biomass such as wood for heat and light. In addition to the dangers incurred from collecting and using biomass, the practice commonly leads to ecological change through the acquisition of wood from forests surrounding urban areas. The objective of this project was to gain insight on domestic energy usage in Central Africa, specifically Angola, Gabon, and the Republic of Congo. This was done through an analysis of deforestation, an estimation of gas flared, and a suitability study for the infrastructure needed to realize the natural gas resources. The energy from potential natural gas production was compared to the energy equivalent of the biomass being harvested. A site suitability study for natural gas pipeline routes from flare sites to populous locations was conducted to assess the feasibility of utilizing natural gas for domestic energy needs. Analyses and results were shared with project partners, as well as this project's open source approach to assessing the energy sector. Ultimately, Africa's growth demands energy for its people, and natural gas is already being produced by the flourishing petroleum industry in numerous African countries. By utilizing this gas, Africa could reduce flaring, recuperate the financial and environmental loss that flaring accounts for, and unlock a plentiful domestic energy source for its people. II. Introduction Background Africa is home to numerous burgeoning economies; a significant number rely on oil production as their primary source of revenue. Relative to its size and population density, the continent has a wealth of natural resources, including oil and natural gas deposits. The exploration of these resources is not a new endeavor, but rather one that spans decades, up to a century in some places. Their resources, if realized, could provide a great means of economic and social mobility for the people of Africa. Currently, Africa represents about 12 % of the energy market, yet at the same time, consumes only 3 % of the world's energy (Kasekende 2009). The higher

Jones, Amber↗

NASA NTRS2012

Technology Investment Agendas to Expand Human Space Futures

The paper develops four alternative core-technology advancement specifications, one for each of the four strategic goal options for government investment in human space flight. Already discussed in the literature, these are: Explore Mars; Settle the Moon; accelerate commercial development of Space Passenger Travel; and enable industrial scale-up of Space Solar Power for Earth. In the case of the Explore Mars goal, the paper starts with the contemporary NASA accounting of ?55 Mars-enabling technologies. The analysis decomposes that technology agenda into technologies applicable only to the Explore Mars goal, versus those applicable more broadly to the other three options. Salient technology needs of all four options are then elaborated to a comparable level of detail. The comparison differentiates how technologies or major developments that may seem the same at the level of budget lines or headlines (e.g., heavy-lift Earth launch) would in fact diverge widely if developed in the service of one or another of the HSF goals. The paper concludes that the explicit choice of human space flight goal matters greatly; an expensive portfolio of challenging technologies would not only enable a particular option, it would foreclose the others. Technologies essential to enable human exploration of Mars cannot prepare interchangeably for alternative futures; they would not allow us to choose later to Settle the Moon, unleash robust growth of Space Passenger Travel industries, or help the transition to a post-petroleum future with Space Solar Power for Earth. The paper concludes that a decades-long decision in the U.S.--whether made consciously or by default--to focus technology investment toward achieving human exploration of Mars someday would effectively preclude the alternative goals in our lifetime.

human space flight↗