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At least 379 records · Page 21

A light synthesis study of W Ursae Majoris

A common set of Roche model parameters produces an accurate fit to I, V, and B data for W Ursae Majoris. The R data are defective. Two pairs of cool photospheric starspots are adopted in producing the fit. The model also adopts the cross-correlation radial velocity obtained by McLean and satisfactorily eliminates evidence, cited in the literature, for a third body in the system. Changing starspot longitudes, while maintaining fixed angular diameter, latitude, and temperature contrast from the adjacent photosphere, can simulate all of the types of light curve instability recorded in historical W Ursae Majoris light curves. Although the theoretical curve accurately fits primary minimum in U, the theoretical curve is too shallow at secondary minimum. A hot secondary explanation of W-type light curves, rather than starspots on an otherwise barotropic photosphere is argued.

Linnell, Albert P.↗

Coronal Magnetic Structures Observing Campaign. II - Magnetic and plasma properties of a solar active region

Simultaneous soft X-ray, microwave, and photospheric magnetic field observations were taken during the Coronal Magnetic Structures Observing Campaign. The plasma electron temperatures and emission measures determined from the X-ray data are used to predict the intensity and structure of the thermal bremsstrahlung emission at 20 and 6 cm. Comparing these predictions with the microwave observations, it is found that the 20 cm structure is very similar to that expected from the X-rays, but a substantial amount of the 6 cm emission was resolved out. The predicted 20 cm brightness temperatures are higher than the observed, requiring cool absorbing material (not greater than 500,000 K) between the hot X-ray plasma and the observer. The absorption mechanism in the cool plasma at 20 cm is most likely thermal bremsstrahlung, requiring coronal magnetic fields as high as 150 G. 'Coronal Magnetograms', made by extrapolating the photospheric longitudinal field using the Sakurai code, show that appropriate values of the total field are reached at heights of 6000-10,000 km above the photosphere (at many but not all locations).

Schmelz, J. T.↗

Dynamics of the solar chromosphere. I - Long-period network oscillations

We analyze differences in solar oscillations between the chromospheric network and internetwork regions from a 1 hr sequence of spectrograms of a quiet region near disk center. The spectrograms contain Ca II H, Ca I 422.7 nm, and various Fe I blends in the Ca II H wing. They permit vertical tracing of oscillations throughout the photosphere and into the low chromosphere. We find that the rms amplitude of Ca II H line center Doppler fluctuations is about 1.5 km/s for both network and internetwork, but that the character of the oscillations differs markedly in these two regions. Within internetwork areas the chromospheric velocity power spectrum is dominated by oscillations with frequencies at and above the acoustic cutoff frequency. They are well correlated with the oscillations in the underlying photosphere, but they are much reduced in the network. In contrast, the network Ca II H line center velocity and intensity power spectra are dominated by low-frequency oscillations with periods of 5-20 min. Their signature is much clearer in our Ca II H line center measurements than in previously used diagnostics which are contaminated by signals from deeper layers. We find that these long-period oscillations are not correlated with underlying photospheric disturbances, and we discuss their nature.

Lites, B. W.↗

Elemental abundances in the upper solar atmosphere of quiet and coronal hole regions (Te is approximately equal to 4.3 x 10 exp 5 K)

Detailed examination of the sun's upper atmosphere reveals that elemental abundances vary between different solar regions. Some solar regions exhibit the well-established photospheric abundances, while in other regions the abundances of some elements diverge from photospheric by an order of magnitude, and perhaps even more. Elemental abundances in the solar wind (SW) are also different from elemental abundances in the photosphere. It is postulated that elemental abundances in the SW reflect the elemental abundances of their place of origin near the solar surface. The solar surface is covered, predominantly, by quiet and coronal hole regions. In this paper we measure the intensities of limb-brightening rings over quiet and coronal hole regions in lines of Mg VI and Ne VI (Te is approximately equal to 4.3 x 10 exp 5 K) and determine the relative elemental abundances of the features producing the rings. The rings are formed by a plasma component occupying only a small fraction of the immediate volume above the solar surface.

Feldman, U.↗

Physics of magnetospheric emission in soft gamma-ray repeaters

Soft gamma-ray repeaters appear to be relatively young, strongly magnetized neutron stars embedded within plerions. The observationally inferred presence of teragauss fields and energetic outflows in these sources provides some support for a model in which the bursts results from crustal disturbances that load and energize the magnetosphere with the ensuing generation of sheared Alfven waves. We here determine accurately the structure of the particle efflux and calculate the spectrum of the resultant radiation, incorporating the key effects due to mildly relativistic magnetic bremsstrahlung, a frequency-dependent photospheric radius and angle-dependent boosting of the intensity for emitting elements at different inclinations. We find that the average photospheric radius during the transient event is approximately 4 stellar radii and that the particles attain a Lorentz factor approximately 13.2 by the time the gas becomes optically thin. The calculated spectrum is a weighted integral over the boosted intensity determined from the physical conditions (i.e., magnetic field, particle density, and temperature) at the photospheric radius corresponding to the relevant frequency. When applied to SGR 1806-20, this procedure yields a distance D approximately equals 10 kpc to this source, which appears to be consistent with the range (approximately 8-17 kpc) inferred from its apparent coincidence with the supernova remnant G10.0-0.3.

Melia, Fulvio↗

31 Cygni: The B star and the wind

I have followed photospheric and wind absorptions in International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) spectra over much of the orbit of this K4 Ib+B3-4 binary system, using interstellar lines to transform all the velocities to a scale with the interstellar medium at -10.1 km/s. Results are as follows: Interstellar Fe II lines give NL (Fe(+)) = 1-2 x 10(exp 14)/sq cm with a Doppler width of 7 km/s; depletions of heavy elements along the line of sight to this star are similar to those for other stars with low interstellar densities. Photospheric lines yield a new velocity amplitude for the B star, K(sub B) = 23.2 +/- 1.0 km/s, which gives the mass ratio M(sub K)/M(sub B) = 1.66 and masses M(sub B) = 7.1 solar mass and M(sub K) = 11.7 solar mass. Existing photometry gives R(sub K) = 197 solar radius, R(sub B) = 5.2 solar radius, and i = 87.19 deg. Breadths of photospheric lines imply the rotational velocity of the B star is V sin i = 70-80 km/s. Most of the wind features are formed in a shell much larger than the binary system for which the terminal velocity seems to be 73 +/- 2 km/s, but it may be as high as approximately 90 km/s. The Doppler width (approximately 13 km/s) of Fe II shell lines likely results from acceleration of the wind, although it could reflect orbital motion of the K supergiant. Shell lines of Mg II and Si II are roughly consistent with Fe II, although their strengths are phase dependent, while S II requires a somewhat thicker shell in S(+) than in Fe(+) with a greater spread in expansion velocity. Shell lines of O I and N I are abnormally weak, if detected at all, and this implies that hydrogen is ionized throughout much of the wind. Lines of highly ionized species (C IV, Si Iv, and N V) appear sporadically in the spectrum and have inverse P Cyg profiles implying collapse (probably of an accretion disk) onto the B star. They do not seem to be isolated at particular phases as might be expected for formation in a conical shock front around an accretion column. I argue that the wind is roughly isotopic and is accelerated slowly, in agreement with existing ideas about winds.

Eaton, Joel A.↗

A multiwavelength campaign of active stars with intermediate rotation rates

Near-to-simultaneous ultraviolet and visual spectroscopy of two moderate nu(sin i) RS CVn systems, V815 Herculis (nu(sin i) = 27 km s(exp -1)) and LM Pegasi (nu(sin i) = 24 km s(exp -1)), are presented along with contemporaneous UBV (RI)(sub c) - band photometry. These data were used to probe inhomogeneities in the chromospheres and photospheres, and the possible relationship between them. Both systems show evidence for rotationally modulated chromospheric emission, generally varying in antiphase to the photospheric brightness. A weak flare was observed at Mg II for V815 Her. In the case of IM Peg, we use photometry and spectra to estimate temperatures, sizes, and locations of photospheric spots. Further constraints on the spot temperature is provided by TiO observations. For IM Peg, the anticorrelation between chromospheric emission and brightness is discussed in the context of a possible solar-like spot cycle.

Dempsey, Robert C.↗

Determination of Coronal Magnetic Fields from Vector Magnetograms

During the course of the present contract we developed an 'evolutionary technique' for the determination of force-free coronal magnetic fields from vector magnetograph observations. The method can successfully generate nonlinear force- free fields (with non-constant-a) that match vector magnetograms. We demonstrated that it is possible to determine coronal magnetic fields from photospheric measurements, and we applied it to vector magnetograms of active regions. We have also studied theoretical models of coronal fields that lead to disruptions. Specifically, we have demonstrated that the determination of force-free fields from exact boundary data is a well-posed mathematical problem, by verifying that the computed coronal field agrees with an analytic force-free field when boundary data for the analytic field are used; demonstrated that it is possible to determine active-region coronal magnetic fields from photospheric measurements, by computing the coronal field above active region 5747 on 20 October 1989, AR6919 on 15 November 1991, and AR7260 on 18 August 1992, from data taken with the Stokes Polarimeter at Mees Solar Observatory, University of Hawaii; started to analyze active region 7201 on 19 June 1992 using measurements made with the Advanced Stokes Polarimeter at NSO/Sac Peak; investigated the effects of imperfections in the photospheric data on the computed coronal magnetic field; documented the coronal field structure of AR5747 and compared it to the morphology of footpoint emission in a flare, showing that the 'high- pressure' H-alpha footpoints are connected by coronal field lines; shown that the variation of magnetic field strength along current-carrying field lines is significantly different from the variation in a potential field, and that the resulting near-constant area of elementary flux tubes is consistent with observations; begun to develop realistic models of coronal fields which can be used to study flare trigger mechanisms; demonstrated that magnetic nonequilibrium can disrupt sheared coronal arcades, and that helmet streamers can disrupt, leading to coronal mass ejections. Our model has significantly extended the realism with which the coronal magnetic field can be inferred from actual observations. In a subsequent contract awarded by NASA, we have continued to apply and improve the evolutionary technique, to study the physical properties of active regions, and to develop theoretical models of magnetic fields.

Mikic, Zoran↗

Study of a Solar X-Ray Telescope

The highly structured nature of the outer solar atmosphere seems to be intimately linked to the presence, at the solar surface, of magnetic fields that have been generated inside the Sun and have emerged to the surface. The corona is brightest (and also hottest) at just those locations where the magnetic field has emerged from inside the Sun. Dynamo theory predicts that strong magnetic fields will be generated deep in the solar interior and that bundles or 'ropes' of magnetic flux will float to the surface. When this happens, a magnetically bipolar region will become visible, extending above the surface in a three-dimensional structure. The field lines penetrate through the surface, showing two magnetic poles, and also exhibit a three-dimensional structure above the surface. The structure created by the field emergence is rooted in the (relatively) cool photosphere and extends through the chromosphere and transition region to the corona. Thus, the magnetic field creates a region, called an active region, which contains portions at temperatures from less than 10(exp 4) K to greater than 10(exp 6) K, and is therefore visible at wavelengths from the infrared through x-rays. The locations where the magnetic field leaves and reenters the visible surface are called the 'footpoints' of the coronal structures associated with the magnetic field. The magnetic fields themselves are not directly visible. However, the hot coronal plasma is, for the most part, constrained to follow the direction of the magnetic field lines in the atmosphere. Now, 100 years after the discovery of x-rays by Wilhelm Roentgen in 1896, we can routinely make observations of the solar corona from outside the Earth's atmosphere in this region of the electromagnetic spectrum. As shown by comparing x-ray images with magnetograms, the bright corona over these bipolar magnetic regions consists of closed structures that seem to follow the orientation of the magnetic field. Although we can see down to the photosphere at x-ray wavelengths when observing the disk of the Sun, this part of the solar atmosphere emits so little that far from the peak of its Planck curve it appears dark in x-ray images. This impression of hot plasma following the magnetic field direction is further strengthened by quantitative studies that calculate coronal magnetic field strength and direction based on photospheric measurements and compare them with the observed brightness and location of the x-ray emitting structures. Such comparisons make it clear that, for the most part, the hot plasma conforms to the geometry of the magnetic field and that the coronal brightness is strongly linked to the strength of the magnetic fields which have erupted to the solar surface from the interior. It is also the case that the larger-scale, fainter corona, as well as coronal holes, are strongly influenced by the large-scale solar magnetic field. We may get a small hint of the reason that the coronal plasma outlines the direction of B by examining the thermal conductivity of a hot plasma in the presence of a magnetic field. This quantity has enormously different values in the directions parallel and perpendicular to the field for a coronal temperature of 10(exp 6) K, a particle density of 10(exp 9)/cu cm and a magnetic field strength of 100 G, the conductivity along the field is approximately 13 orders of magnitude greater than that perpendicular to the field. It is therefore not surprising that a parcel of plasma which is locally heated would conduct that heat preferentially in the direction of the field. We also note that the thermal conductivity parallel to the magnetic field increases with temperature T, while the perpendicular conductivity decreases. To the extent that the loop aspect ratio, i.e., the ratio of loop length to loop width, is determined by the thermal conductivity, we would expect that higher temperature loops are longer and thinner than cooler ones. However, if the loop width becomes smaller than the spatial resolution of the observing instrument, this effect will not be directly observable. For organizational purposes, we provide a listing of some scientific objectives for a Solar-B x-ray telescope, arranged in terms of identifiable features in the corona.

Golub, Leon↗

Constructing the Coronal Magnetic Field by Correlating Parameterized Magnetic Field Lines with Observed Coronal Plasma Structures

A method is presented for constructing the coronal magnetic field from photospheric magnetograms and observed coronal loops. A set of magnetic field lines generated from magnetogram data is parameterized and then deformed by varying the parameterized values. The coronal flux tubes associated with this field are adjusted until the correlation between the field lines and the observed coronal loops is maximized. A mathematical formulation is described which ensures that (1) the normal component of the photospheric field remains unchanged, (2) the field is given in the entire corona over an active region, (3) the field remains divergence-free, and 4electric currents are introduced into the field. It is demonstrated that a parameterization of a potential field, comprising a radial stretching of the field, can provide a match for a simple bipolar active region, AR 7999, which crossed the central meridian on 1996 November 26. The result is a non-force-free magnetic field with the Lorentz force being of the order of 10(exp -5.5) g per s(exp 2) resulting from an electric current density of 0.79 micro A per m(exp 2). Calculations show that the plasma beta becomes larger than unity at a strong non-radial currents requires low height of about 0.25 solar radii supporting the non-force-free conclusion. The presence of such strong non-radial currents requires large transverse pressure gradients fo maintain a magnetostatic atmosphere, required by the relatively persistent nature of the coronal structures observed in AR 7999. This scheme is an important tool in generating a magnetic field solution consistent with the coronal flux tube observations and the observed photospheric magnetic field.

Allen, Gary G.↗

Instability Regions in the Upper HR Diagram

The following instability regions for blueward evolving supergiants are outlined and compared: (1) Areas in the Hertzsprung-Russell(HR) diagram where stars are dynamically unstable. (2) Areas where the effective acceleration in the upper part of the photospheres is negative, hence directed outward. (3) Areas where the sonic points of the stellar wind (Where wind velocity = sound velocity) are situated inside the photospheres, at a level deeper than tau(sub Ross) = 0.01. We compare the results with the positions of actual stars in the HR diagram and we find evidence that the recent strong contraction of the yellow hypergiant HR8752 was initiated in a period during which (g(sub eff)) is less than 0, whereupon the star became dynamically unstable. The instability and extreme shells around IRC+10420 are suggested to be related to three factors: (g(sub eff)) is less than 0; the sonic point is situated inside the photosphere; and the star is dynamically unstable.

deJager, Cornelis↗

Solar Magnetic Explosions, Spicules, and the Heliosphere

We present an example of each of the following observed characteristics of the magnetic origins of quiet-region coronal heating, spicules, macrospicules, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). (1) In quiet regions, the luminosity of the corona is roughly proportional to the edge length of the underlying photospheric magnetic network. (2) Spicules and EUV explosive events are concentrated at the edges of the magnetic network. (3) Many macrospicules have the magnetic structure of a surge rooted around an inclusion of opposite-polarity magnetic flux. (4) CMEs and eruptive flares are driven by explosions of sheared magnetic fields rooted along polarity dividing lines (neutral lines) in the photospheric magnetic flux. These characteristics together suggest that the mainstay of the heliosphere, the corona/solar wind rooted in quiet regions and coronal holes, may be driven by myriads of tiny magnetic explosions at the network edges, explosions like those that drive CMEs but of vastly smaller scale. If so, the steady solar wind and the CMEs that disrupt it both have the same root cause: explosions of initially-closed, strongly-sheared, bipolar magnetic fields. The photospheric vector magnetograms, chromospheric filtergrams, EUV spectra, and coronal images from Solar-B are expected to have sufficient sensitivity, spatial resolution, and cadence to test this scenario for coronal heating in quiet regions and coronal holes. This work was supported by NASA/OSS through its Solar and Heliospheric Physics SR and T Program and Sun-Earth Connection GI Program.

Moore, Ronald L.↗

The Latitudinal Excursion of Coronal Magnetic Field Lines in Response to Differential Rotation: MHD Simulations

Solar energetic particles, which are believed to originate from corotating interacting regions (CIRS) at low heliographic latitude, were observed by the Ulysses spacecraft even as it passed over the Sun's poles. One interpretation of this result is that high-latitude field lines intercepted by Ulysses connect to low-latitude CIRs at much larger heliocentric distances. The Fisk model explains the latitudinal excursion of magnetic field lines in the solar corona and heliosphere as the inevitable consequence of the interaction of a tilted dipole in a differentially rotating photosphere with rigidly rotating coronal holes. We use a time-dependent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) algorithm to follow the evolution of a simple model of the solar corona in response to the differential rotation of the photospheric magnetic flux. We examine the changes of the coronal-hole boundaries, the redistribution of the line-of-sight magnetic field, and the precession of field lines in the corona. Our results confirm the basic idea of the Fisk model, that differential rotation leads to changes in the heliographic latitude of magnetic field lines. However, the latitudinal excursion of magnetic field lines in this simple "tilted dipole" model is too small to explain the Ulysses observations. Although coronal holes in our model rotate more rigidly than do photospheric features (in general agreement with observations), they do not rotate strictly rigidly as assumed by Fisk. This basic difference between our model and Fisk's will be explored in the future by considering more realistic magnetic flux distributions, as observed during Ulysses polar excursions.

Lionello, Roberto↗

Origin of the Sheared Magnetic Fields that Erupt in Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections

From a search of the Yohkoh/SXT whole-Sun movie in the years 2000 and 2001, we found 37 flare-arcade events for which there were full-disk magnetograms from SOHO/MDI, coronagraph movies from SOHO/LASCO, and before and after full-disk chromospheric images from SOHOBIT and/or from ground-based observatories. For each event, the observations show or strongly imply that the flare arcade was produced in the usual way by the eruption of sheared core field (as a flux rope) from along the neutral line inside a mature bipolar magnetic arcade. Two-thirds (25) of these arcades had the normal leading-trailing magnetic polarity arrangement of the active regions in the hemisphere of the arcade, but the other third (12) had reversed polarity, their leading flux being the trailing-polarity remnant of one or more old active regions and their trailing flux being the leading-polarity remnant of one or more other old active regions. From these observations, we conclude: (1) The sheared core field in a reversed-polarity arcade must be formed by processes in and above the photosphere, not by the emergence of a twisted flux rope bodily from below the photosphere. (2) The sheared core fields in the normal-polarity arcades were basically the same as those in the reversed-polarity arcades: both showed similar sigmoidal form and produced similar explosions (similar flares and CMEs). (3) Hence, the sheared core fields in normal-polarity mature arcades are likely formed mainly by the same processes as in reversed-polarity arcades. (4) These processes should be discernible in high-resolution magnetogram sequences and movies of the photosphere, chromosphere, and corona such those to come from Solar-B

Moore, Ronald L.↗

Interchange Reconnection and Coronal Hole Dynamics

We investigate the effect of magnetic reconnection between open and closed fields, often referred to as interchange reconnection, on the dynamics and topology of coronal hole boundaries. The most important and most prevalent three-dimensional topology of the interchange process is that of a small-scale bipolar magnetic field interacting with a large-scale background field. We determine the evolution of such a magnetic topology by numerical solution of the fully three-dimensional MHD equations in spherical coordinates. First, we calculate the evolution of a small-scale bipole that initially is completely inside an open field region and then is driven across a coronal hole boundary by photospheric motions. Next the reverse situation is calculated in which the bipole is initially inside the closed region and driven toward the coronal hole boundary. In both cases, we find that the stress imparted by the photospheric motions results in deformation of the separatrix surface between the closed field of the bipole and the background field, leading to rapid current sheet formation and to efficient reconnection. When the bipole is inside the open field region, the reconnection is of the interchange type in that it exchanges open and closed fields. We examine, in detail, the topology of the field as the bipole moves across the coronal hole boundary and find that the field remains well connected throughout this process. Our results, therefore, provide essential support for the quasi-steady models of the open field, because in these models the open and closed flux are assumed to remain topologically distinct as the photosphere evolves. Our results also support the uniqueness hypothesis for open field regions as postulated by Antiochos et al. On the other hand, the results argue against models in which open flux is assumed to diffusively penetrate deeply inside the closed field region under a helmet streamer. We discuss the implications of this work for coronal observations.

MHD (MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMICS)↗

2D and 3D Numerical Simulations of Flux Cancellation

Cancellation of magnetic flux in the solar photosphere and chromosphere has been linked observationally and theoretically to a broad range of solar activity, from filament channel formation to CME initiation. Because this phenomenon is typically measured at only a single layer in the atmosphere, in the radial (line of sight) component of the magnetic field, the actual processes behind this observational signature are ambiguous. It is clear that reconnection is involved in some way, but the location of the reconnection sites and associated connectivity changes remain uncertain in most cases. We are using numerical modeling to demystify flux cancellation, beginning with the simplest possible configuration: a subphotospheric Lundquist flux tube surrounded by a potential field, immersed in a gravitationally stratified atmosphere, spanning many orders of magnitude in plasma beta. In this system, cancellation is driven slowly by a 2-cell circulation pattern imposed in the convection zone, such that the tops of the cells are located around the beta=1 level (i.e., the photosphere) and the flows converge and form a downdraft at the polarity inversion line; note however that no flow is imposed along the neutral line. We will present the results of 2D and 3D MHD-AMR simulations of flux cancellation, in which the flux at the photosphere begins in either an unsheared or sheared state. In all cases, a low-lying flux rope is formed by reconnection at the polarity inversion line within a few thousand seconds. The flux rope remains stable and does not rise, however, in contrast to models which do not include the presence of significant mass loading.

Karpen, Judith T.↗

20 and 3D Numerical Simulations of Flux Cancellation

Cancellation of magnetic flux in the solar photosphere and chromosphere has been linked observationally and theoretically to a broad range of solar activity, from filament channel formation to CME initiation. Because this phenomenon is typically measured at only a single layer in the atmosphere, in the radial (line of sight) component of the magnetic field, the actual processes behind this observational signature are ambiguous. It is clear that reconnection is involved in some way, but the location of the reconnection sites and associated connectivity changes remain uncertain in most cases. We are using numerical modeling to demystify flux cancellation, beginning with the simplest possible configuration: a subphotospheric Lundquist flux tube surrounded by a potential field, immersed in a gravitationally stratified atmosphere, spanning many orders of magnitude in plasma beta. In this system, cancellation is driven slowly by a 2-cell circulation pattern imposed in the convection zone, such that the tops of the cells are located around the beta= 1 level (Le., the photosphere) and the flows converge and form a downdraft at the polarity inversion line; note however that no flow is imposed along the neutral line. We will present the results of 2D and 3D MHD-AMR simulations of flux cancellation, in which the flux at the photosphere begins in either an unsheared or sheared state. In all cases, a lOW-lying flux rope is formed by reconnection at the polarity inversion line within a few thousand seconds. The flux rope remains stable and does not rise, however, in contrast to models which do not include the presence of significant mass loading.

Karpen, Judith T.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗