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At least 379 records · Page 21

Solar and Storage Techno-Economic Analysis Tutorial for the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC)

This tutorial will highlight the most recent efforts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to track solar photovoltaic (PV) technology trends and manufacturing costs, project levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and project levelized cost of solar plus storage (LCOSS) for systems across the globe. We will begin with an overview of the global PV supply chain and 2021 benchmark input data for NREL's crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film PV module manufacturing cost models. The framework that we follow and will review during this tutorial provides a methodology to prepare bottom-up manufacturing cost models including the items within the U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). For the polysilicon, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, and for thin film modules, we will review input data and methods useful for calculating the costs of goods sold (COGS); research and development (R&D) expenses; and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, &A) expenses. This 2021 benchmark analysis is compiled for state-of-the-art c-Si and thin film module manufacturing. We will also review methods for our 2021 system benchmark costs calculations and LCOE technoeconomic analysis of PV systems and solar plus storage systems. Next generation technologies that lower PV manufacturing and installation costs, reduce operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses, and improve system energy yield will also be highlighted. Techniques for comparing LCOE performance will also be reviewed. We look forward to sharing NREL's extensive work in these areas and discussing ideas for future directions.

cost models↗

PV O&M Cost Model [SWR-21-14]

This tool presents a method for calculating costs associated with the operation and maintenance (O&M) of photovoltaic (PV) systems. The tool compiles details regarding the cost and frequency of multiple O&M services to estimate annual O&M costs ($/year) for each year of an analysis period, the net present value ($) of life cycle costs accumulated over the analysis period, and the reserve account amount ($) that might be required to fund unexpected repairs. The reserve account includes parts inventory and is important for providing a source of funds to make repairs quickly and avoid lost production. This method allows a detailed selection of services to perform based on system size, market served (e.g., residential, commercial, or utility), type and configuration of system components (e.g., micro-, string, or central inverter), and site and environmental conditions (e.g., pollen, bird populations) which is an improvement over simple per unit valuations of O&M costs ($/kW/year). This model also distinguishes costs that vary from year to year and increase at different rates over time as modeled by heuristic failure distributions (e.g., Weibull or Lognormal distribution) based on actuarial data for many of the services.

Walker, Andy↗

Thermodynamics of Light Management in Near-Field Thermophotovoltaics

We evaluate near-field thermophotovoltaic (TPV) energy-conversion systems focusing in particular on their open-circuit voltage (V OC ). Unlike previous analyses based largely on numerical simulations with fluctuational electrodynamics, here, we develop an analytic model that captures the physics of near-field TPV systems and can predict their performance metrics. Using our model, we identify two opportunities of TPV systems operating in the near field. First, we show analytically that enhancement of radiative recombination is a natural consequence of operating in the near field. Second, we note that, owing to photon recycling and minimal radiation leakage in near-field operation, the PV cell used in near-field TPV systems can be much thinner compared to those used in solar PV systems. Since nonradiative recombination is a volumetric effect, use of a thinner cell reduces nonradiative losses per unit area. The combination of these two opportunities leads to increasingly large values of V OC as the TPV vacuum gap decreases. Hence, although operation in the near-field was previously perceived to be beneficial for electrical power-density enhancement, here, we emphasize that thin-film near-field TPVs are also significantly advantageous in terms of V OC and consequently conversion efficiency as well as power density. We provide numerical results for an InAs-based thin-film TPV that exhibits efficiency >50% at an emitter temperature as low as 1100 K.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Foresee the Future: Using Machine Learning, Climate, and Site Characteristics to Predict PV Solar Plant Generation

Accurately predicting power generation for PV sites is critical for prioritizing relevant operations & maintenance activities, thereby extending the lifetime of a system and increasing the amount of revenue generated. Machine learning techniques can help us in this regard by providing more accurate predictions of PV power production, such that the forecasts take into account not only a site's system design characteristics, but also important weather and climate information. This type of research is important because we can leverage the vast amounts of SCADA data we collect to build more effective, accurate models that can help improve our performance management.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Frequency Analysis of Solar PV Power to Enable Optimal Building Load Control

In this paper, we present a flexibility estimation mechanism for buildings’ thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) to enable the distribution level consumption of the majority of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation by local building TCLs. The local consumption of PV generation provides several advantages to the grid operation as well as the consumers, such as reducing the stress on the distribution network, minimizing voltage fluctuations and two-way power flows in the distribution network, and reducing the required battery storage capacity for PV integration. This would result in increasing the solar PV generation penetration levels. The aims of this study are twofold. First, spectral (frequency) analyses of solar PV power generation together with the power consumption of multiple building TCLs (such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, water heaters, and refrigerators) are performed. These analyses define the bandwidth over which these TCLs can operate and also describe the PV generation frequency bandwidth. Such spectral analyses, in frequency domain, can help identify the flexible components of PV generation that can be consumed by the various TCLs through optimal building load utilization. Second, a quadratic optimization problem based on model predictive control is formulated to allow consuming most of the low and medium frequency content of the PV power locally by building TCLs, while maintaining occupants’ comfort and TCLs’ physical constraints. The solution to the proposed optimization problem is achieved using optimal control strategies. Numerical results show that most of the low and medium frequency content of the PV generation can be consumed locally by building TCLs. The remaining high-frequency content of the PV generation can then be stored/offset using energy storage systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Community-Scale Energy Efficiency Assessment for Zero Net Energy Using the URBANopt Simulation Platform: Preprint

This project explored an innovative modeling approach for assessing the energy efficiency potential of the existing low-income Oceano neighborhood, in unincorporated San Luis Obispo County, and its effects on renewable generation requirements for achieving zero net energy (ZNE). One particular challenge faced was ascertaining the technical energy savings potential across a large neighborhood in a timely manner. The project overcame this challenge through the use of the URBANopt simulation platform, developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. URBANopt manages the automated model creation, simulation, and result aggregation for different design scenarios of existing or candidate buildings in a large neighborhood. Customized energy efficiency packages considered for the residential and commercial sector in the neighborhood included lighting, HVAC, plug load, water heating, envelope, and energy education measures. As a result of the analysis for the Oceano community, energy efficiency measures that are available through incentive programs may provide a 7.4% reduction in the required distributed energy resource (DER) size, corresponding to a 25,000 ft2 decrease in PV array area, to achieve ZNE. Through this work, a computational tool was developed and is being leveraged by the County of San Luis Obispo (CoSLO). The tool has enabled the CoSLO staff to perform similar analysis of the technical potential for energy efficiency, and an understanding of the DER asset requirements and potential savings in other communities within the county.

building energy modeling↗

Improving the Performance of Integrated Power-Hardware-in-the-Loop and Quasi-Static Time-Series Simulations

This paper introduces a novel multirate cosimulation architecture that overcomes previous challenges integrating faster real-time, microseconds-scale, power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) with larger scale but slower, real-time, seconds-scale, quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulation. Specifically, an intermediate reduced-equivalent electromagnetic transient (EMT) model duplicates the key power system topology to capture high-speed dynamics and converge hardware-power system interactions between QSTS updates. Exchanging multidimensional parameter vectors (loads, control status, etc.) between the QSTS and EMT models enables capturing the interactions of the rich, high-node-count (thousands of electrical nodes) QSTS model with the hardware. This architecture offers full spatial resolution from QSTS, including individual load dynamics, actual distribution management system controls, and nodal voltages. Simultaneously, the intermediate EMT model provides more detailed high-speed transients of key distributed energy resource hardware interactions. In addition, we use careful PHIL interface design and the exchange of complex power data, rather than current, to further improve performance. This cosimulation architecture is demonstrated by testing a simulated distribution system with an interconnected 500-kVA advanced photovoltaic (PV) inverter in PHIL. In conclusion, the architecture successfully captured PV local volt-volt ampere reactive (volt-VAR) control interactions with the larger network under time-varying electrical and weather conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Real-Time Degradation Estimation Approach for Batteries in PV and Battery Hybrid Plant Operation

Conventional cyclic degradation assessment for batteries is often limited in its ability to provide real-time degradation information during operation, because the estimation of degradation is commonly performed after a specific evaluation period. Modified methods can provide real-time evaluation but at the cost of high computation complexity. This paper proposes a novel estimation method that addresses these limitations. It efficiently determines the incremental degradation of any two consecutive state-of-charge (SOC) samples during battery operation, thus enabling real-time estimation. To validate the proposed method, measurement data from lithium-ion phosphate (LFP) battery testing was adopted, and the results were compared with the conventional model and the measured capacity. The results demonstrate accuracy over the evaluation period in terms of cumulative degradation, and a reduced computation cost compared with other methods. This approach has benefits in various applications, especially in cases where batteries experience irregular charging and discharging stress cycles such as PV and battery hybrid plants.

Wang, Shumeng↗

Development Support for NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM): Cooperative Research and Development, CRADA Number CRD-20-16998 (Final Report)

The variable nature of renewable generation, which depends on the sun shining and wind blowing for example, presents challenges for adequate and least-cost resource planning. The deployment of renewable generation assets is anticipated to increase due to various drivers, such as declining costs, favorable government policies, and increasing procurement by corporations and consumers. High levels of renewable penetration are anticipated to pose flexibility, reliability, and cost challenges to the electrical system. The development and implementation of new features into performance modeling software, such as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) System Advisor Model (SAM), is one way to help think through these challenges and develop appropriate strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Barriers and variable spacing enhance convective cooling and increase power output in solar PV plants

When the temperature of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules rises, efficiency drops and module degradation accelerates. Thus, it is beneficial to reduce module operating temperatures. Previous studies of solar power plants have illustrated that incoming flow characteristics, turbulent mixing, and array geometry can strongly impact convective cooling, as measured by the convective heat transfer coefficient h. In the fields of heat transfer and plant canopy flow, previous work has shown that system-scale arrangement modifications—e.g., variable spacing, barriers, or windbreaks—can passively alter the flow, enhance turbulent mixing, and influence convection. However, researchers have not yet explored how variable spacing or barriers might enhance convective cooling in solar power plants. Here, high-resolution large-eddy simulations model the air flow and heat transfer through solar power plant arrangements modified with missing modules and barrier walls. We then perform a control volume analysis to evaluate the net heat flux and compute h, which quantifies the influence of these spatial modifications on convective cooling and, thus, module temperature and power output. Installing barrier walls yields the greatest improvements, increasing h by 3.4%, reducing module temperature by an estimated 2.5 °C, and boosting power output by an estimated 1.4% on average. These findings indicate that incorporating variable spacing or barrier-type elements into PV plant designs can reduce module temperature and, thus, improve PV performance and service life.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Feed-Forward Compensation for Model Predictive Control in Tri-port Current-Source Medium-Voltage String Inverters for PV-Plus-Storage Farms

The novel tri-port current-source medium-voltage string inverter (TCS-MVSI) is a promising candidate for large-scale PV-plus-storage (PVS) farms owing to its galvanic isolation, easy storage integration, soft-switching capability across entire load range, controlled low dv/dt and EMI, benign fault tolerance, etc. Due to its low inertia feature, traditional PI-based control cannot manage large transients effectively. Instead, a model-based predictive control (MPC) is proposed to achieve robust and stable operation. As is well known, the control performance of MPC is compromised by the sampling and computational delay during implementation significantly, if not well addressed. This paper analyzed and quantified these delays and then proposes feed-forward compensation (FFC) for the MPC method to compensate the delays and the large parameter variations due to the low-inertia nature. In addition, this method also compensates for the high dc-link ripple within each switching cycle, a unique issue for low-inertia converters. Here, the proposed method requires low computational effort, allowing it to be extended for multiple ports. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been validated in experiments. In 10 kW test, the proposed method decreases the average dc-link current by 17%, leading to ~20% conduction losses and ~0.5% increase in converter efficiency. In addition, the peak dc-link current also decreases by 15%, resulting in reduced transformer size. As a result, an increased power density can be achieved with the proposed method. Similar improvements have been observed across the power range from 2 kW to 10 kW.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Technoeconomic Analysis of Changing PV System Layout and Convection Heat Transfer

This work includes analysis of potential economic improvements for PV systems for changing system parameters such as ground coverage ratio that alter the convective cooling consideration on PV modules through a newly proposed convective curve fit. Accounting for the spatial layout of the system in the convection heat transfer calculations allows for more accuracy in convective cooling load and subsequent module temperature calculations. The changing heat transfer considerations can be shown to improve system LCOE along with improved incident irradiance from increased row spacing despite the additional system costs incurred with increased module spacing. State-level analyses show that the impact of decreasing system GCR is greatest for climates with cold average annual ambient temperatures and moderate to high average annual wind speeds. Further waterfall analysis of changing system parameters reveals that the changing heat transfer dynamics have a non-negligible impact on system LCOE when compared to the changes in incident irradiance that serve as the primary driver of annual energy performance changes.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Methods for Evaluating DC Arc Incident Energy in PV Systems: Preprint

Renewable energy systems continue to be one of the fastest growing segments of the energy industry. This paper focuses on the understanding of how photovoltaic (PV) technology behaves under dc arc conditions. Emphasis is placed on the electrical safety aspect of DC arc flash incident energy evaluation. Because of the fast proliferation of PV systems and the lack of formal equivalent calculation guidelines such as IEEE 1584 for AC systems, it has been necessary to rely on different equations and models presented by various researchers over the last few years. This paper discusses the behavior of PV systems under arc conditions and presents the results of available methods to estimate the dc arc flash incident energy. This paper provides a comparative analysis of a proposed arc-flash incident energy calculation method against different laboratory tests including those performed by NREL. Detailed explanations are provided regarding the effect of PV module I-V and P-V curves under arcing conditions. Examples of the application of the proposed calculation method to the test measurements are included.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Viewfactor and Raytracing for AgriPV Modeling

View factor models are used in due diligence software to calculate rear irradiance for bifacial modules. An intermediate step in this calculation is the irradiance at the ground level, which can be leveraged for evaluating the Photo Active Radiation available for crops in Agrivoltaic setups. This paper presents the metrics and modifications to the model for ground irradiance study with the view factor approach, compares it to the raytracing method, and validates it with field measurements of ground irradiance. It is found that for the clearances, row-to-row setups, and tilts studied, the view factor method matches with raytracing results within 2% MBD. The comparison is performed for the nine most common agriPV configurations using high-performance computing and the NSRDB database for the whole US, with results and data made available open-source on the InSPIRE AgriPV website.

AgriPV↗

Regional Real-Time PV Spinning Reserve Estimator

Curtailed photovoltaic (PV) generation is a zero-marginal-cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. Unlike traditional spinning reserve providers, however, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, which have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate knowledge of the PV PHL is essential. It ensures that enough headroom is reserved by the PV plants to deliver the award services in real time and informs feasible dispatch decisions made by the market operator. To tackle this challenge, a novel reference-control grouping-based PV plant reserve estimation method has been proposed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under past projects funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office. The estimation method separates inverters within a plant into two groups: a control group and a reference group. While the reference group is reserved to operate at its PHL, the control group can be curtailed to provide the grid services. Real-time outputs from the reference inverters are used to estimate the PHL for the whole plant based on the ratio between capacities of the reference group and of the plant. This work further enhances the methodology by (1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; (2) automating the reference inverter selection through correlation analysis; (3) considering estimation look-ahead windows; and (4) applying to regional spinning reserve estimation. Significant performance improvement has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO, Southern Company, and Terabase Energy. Compared with the original scaling method, the newly proposed machine learning-based approach reduces the estimation errors by 30% and 13% at the plant level and region level, respectively. Results obtained from this project are intended to be used by grid operators, market operators, balancing authorities, and PV plant owners and operators to facilitate PV participation in ancillary service markets. Regulators, policymakers, and system planners can also consider the results of this work in their decision-making processes. In addition to the performance improvement on the existing reference-control based grouping method, we also investigated how the variability of PV generation from a single PV inverter can be used to represent the variability of PV generation at the plant level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Band Bending at CdTe Solar Cell Contacts: Correlating Electro‐Optical and X‐Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy Analyses of Thin Film Solar Cells

With the semiconductor bulk properties reaching target values for highly efficient solar cells, efforts are applied to reduce losses at solar cell interfaces and contacts. Advances in understanding back contacts in thin‐film polycrystalline CdTe solar cells, a leading thin‐film PV technology, are reported. By using X‐Ray photoelectron spectroscopy, Kelvin probe spectroscopy, time‐ and energy‐resolved photoluminescence, defects at the back contact are analyzed. Densities of recombination centers and charged defects that induce near‐back‐contact band bending, both resulting in recombination losses, were estimated. Electro‐optical and surface analysis results are integrated into a device model, simulating the performance of CdSeTe/CdTe solar cells with 902 mV open circuit voltage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Advanced Photovoltaic Module Characterization: Using Image Transformers for Current–Voltage Curve Prediction From Electroluminescence Images

Individual photovoltaic (PV) module health monitoring can be a daunting task for operation and maintenance of solar farms. Modules can be inspected through luminescence, thermal imaging, and current–voltage (I–V) curve analyzes for identification of damage and power loss. I–V curves provide easily interpretable data to determine module health as they directly provide electrical performance metrics. However, in order to obtain these curves, modules must be disconnected from the array and either removed to a solar simulator or characterized in situ with corrections for module temperature, the incident solar spectrum, and intensity. Luminescence or thermal images of a module are relatively easy to acquire in situ. Electroluminescence (EL) images highlight physical defects in the modules but do not provide easily interpretable features to correlate with electrical performance. This work presents a SWin transformer network to predict I–V curves for PV modules from their corresponding EL images. The predicted I–V curves allow the accurate prediction of the maximum power point (MPP), short-circuit current I sc , and open-circuit voltage V oc with a mean error less of than 1%. Comparing single diode model (SDM) parameters extracted from the predicted curves to those extracted from the true curves, the series resistance R s demonstrates a mean error of 5.19%, and the photocurrent I a mean error of 0.197%. The shunt resistance R sh and dark current Io parameters are predicted with larger errors because of their sensitivity to small changes in the I–V curve.

Byford, Brandon K. [New Mexico State Univ., Las Cr↗

Best practices for photovoltaic performance loss rate calculations

Abstract The performance loss rate (PLR) is a vital parameter for the time-dependent assessment of photovoltaic (PV) system performance and health state. Although this metric can be calculated in a relatively straightforward manner, it is challenging to achieve accurate and reproducible results with low uncertainty. Furthermore, the temporal evolution of PV system performance is usually nonlinear, but in many cases a linear evaluation is preferred as it simplifies the assessment and it is easier to evaluate. As such, the search for a robust and reproducible calculation methodology providing reliable linear PLR values across different types of systems and conditions has been the focus of many research activities in recent years. In this paper, the determination of PV system PLR using different pipelines and approaches is critically evaluated and recommendations for best practices are given. As nonlinear PLR assessments are fairly new, there is no consent on how to calculate reliable values. Several promising nonlinear approaches have been developed recently and are presented as tools to evaluate the PV system performance in great detail. Furthermore, challenges are discussed with respect to the PLR calculation but also opportunities for differentiating individual performance losses from a generic PLR value having the potential of enabling actionable insights for maintenance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗