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NASA NTRS2006

Modeling the Observed QBO and Inter-Annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

In the current version of the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW) from Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). The model does not have topography, and the planetary waves are solely generated by instabilities. We discuss a 3D modeling study that describes the QBO extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, where the oscillation produces significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. The numerical results are compared with temperature measurements from the SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) instruments obtained by Huang et al. (2006). With a GW source that peaks at the Equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 26 months and zonal wind amplitudes of almost 25 m/s at 30 km. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. The modeled QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, the relative importance of the advection terms are discussed, and they are shown to be important in the stratosphere. At altitudes above 80 km, however, the QBO-related inter-annual variations of the tide are generated primarily by GW momentum deposition. In qualitative agreement with the SABER measurements, the model generates distinct zonal-mean QBO temperature variations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In the stratosphere, the computed amplitudes are not much smaller than those observed, and the rate of downward propagation at the Equator is reproduced. The modeled temperature amplitudes in the mesosphere, however, are much smaller than those observed. The observed and computed temperature variations of the QBO peak at the Equator but extend with phase reversals to high latitudes, in contrast to the zonal winds that are confined to equatorial latitudes. Hemispherical asymmetries also appear in both the model results and the observations. The temperature amplitudes outside the equatorial region however tend to occur at lower latitudes in the model results. While there is qualitative agreement between the TIMED measurements and the model prediction, there are some areas of significant disagreement that require us to reexamine the present version of the NSM. The numerical results critically depend on the chosen parameters that determine the wave forcing, and there are a number of avenues to improve the performance of the model that had not been tuned to fit the observations. The GW spectrum and its latitude dependence in the troposphere are not well known, and numerical experiments are discussed that describe the related model response. While it appears that eastward propagating Kelvin waves and westward propagating Rossby gravity waves are not the primary source to generate the QBO, the GW forcing can seed the oscillation and act as a catalyst to enhance effectiveness of these planetary waves.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Natural Language Processing Analysis of Notices to Airmen for Air Traffic Management Optimization

With new emerging technologies in the field of NLP, we explore their applications to digitize and analyze heritage Air Traffic Management (ATM) documents for planning and optimizing airspace operations. Specifically, this research focuses on harvesting semi-structured or un-structured information contained in Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs). Using NLP and other advanced data analytics, we will construct a data-driven framework which facilitates finding language patterns and the use of pretrained language models for classification and extraction of useful airspace constraints and restrictions. These may lead to tools that assist airspace users in understanding the constraints more efficiently, contributing to better route planning and safer execution. This paper explores three workflows entailing different NLP tasks. First, unsupervised techniques like word embedding and topic modeling are used for pattern finding and document classification. Second, a dataset is created by extracting information from the semi-structured NOTAM format as metadata for categorizing, visualizing, and extracting key entities driving NOTAM content. Third, modern pre-built deep learning based transformer models such as BERT, RoBERTa, and XLNet are evaluated on the question answering task, an even more robust approach to information extraction, as well as their respective fine-tuning tasks. In this work we include various performance metrics for the trained models to evaluate both accuracy and precision and we show that the models can be generalized for their respective tasks. The research work developed shows promise in uncovering trends in digital NOTAMs in the NAS and also offers a new framework for digitizing and inferring insights from free-form legacy NOTAMs, that are yet to be digitized.

Natural Language Processing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Natural Language Processing (NLP) Analysis of NOTAMs for Air Traffic Management Optimization

Natural Language Processing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Airport Runway Configurations for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

One of the most challenging tasks for air traffic controllers is runway configuration management (RCM). It deals with the optimal selection of runways to operate on (for arrivals and departures) based on current and forecast of traffic, surface wind speed, wind direction, other environmental variables, noise constraints, and several other airport-specific factors. In this paper, a methodology using supervised learning is developed to build a predictive model for RCM decision-support from large volumes of historical data. Data from two full years (2018 and 2019) related to current and forecast weather, demand/capacity, etc. is collected, analyzed, and fused together. A variety of supervised learning algorithms are tested for predicting runway configuration and hyperparameter tuning is carried out to select the best performing model. The validation process involves two airports of low (Charlotte Douglas International Airport, CLT) and high (Denver International Airport, DEN) complexity of configuration decision-making. The results show significant promise for the two airports with test accuracy of 93% (CLT) and 73% (DEN). The methodology is scalable and generalizable to other airports across the U.S. National Airspace System.

air traffic management↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Airport Runway Configuration for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

air traffic management↗

DOE OSTI2025

Text Mining for Process–Structure–Properties Relationships in Metals

With the advent of large language models (LLMs), the vast unstructured text within millions of academic papers is increasingly accessible for materials discovery—although significant challenges remain. While LLMs offer promising few- and zero-shot learning capabilities, particularly valuable in the materials domain where expert annotations are scarce, general-purpose LLMs often fail to address key materials-specific queries without further adaptation. To bridge this gap, fine-tuning LLMs on human-labeled data is essential for effective structured knowledge extraction (Liu in The Importance of Human-Labeled Data in the Era of LLMs, 2023). Here, in this study, we introduce a novel annotation schema designed to extract generic process–structure–properties relationships from scientific literature. We demonstrate the utility of this approach using a dataset of 128 abstracts, with annotations drawn from two distinct domains: high-temperature materials (Domain I) and uncertainty quantification in simulating materials microstructure (Domain II). Initially, we developed a conditional random field (CRF) model based on MatBERT—a domain-specific BERT variant—and evaluated its performance on Domain I. Subsequently, we compared this model with a fine-tuned LLM (GPT-4o from OpenAI) under identical conditions. Our results indicate that fine-tuning LLMs can significantly improve entity extraction performance over the BERT-CRF baseline on Domain I. However, when additional examples from Domain II were incorporated, the performance of the BERT-CRF model became comparable to that of the GPT-4o model. These findings underscore the potential of our schema for structured knowledge extraction and highlight the complementary strengths of both modeling approaches.

Materials science↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fermilab Booster loss modelling and rebalancing using Bayesian methods

Fermilab Booster is being upgraded for the PIP-II project to support 20Hz ramp rate at higher intensities. Loss trip limits determine the achievable peak power. To meet PIP-II requirements, losses need to be halved as compared to current levels. Losses primarily occur at injection and transition crossing, with both gradually increasing and threshold-like intensity-dependent behaviors. The existing simulation models are not yet good enough for quantitative loss predictions. In practice, it will be necessary to tune up the Booster using iterative methods and operator intuition. In this paper we present an effort to systematically model Booster losses using active learning (Bayesian exploration) techniques, and subsequently to rebalance them for higher trip limit margins. We first created several sets of spatially and temporally isolated orbit and optics knobs, and trained Gaussian process models for each beam loss monitor as well as beam current. This is a complex task due to safety and timing requirements – we discuss mitigations such as uncertainty constraints and approximate fitting. Once models are stable, we perform large-scale single and multi-objective tuning using scalarized objectives made up of critical beam loss locations. Our results demonstrate significant rebalancing of losses, increasing trip margins, as well as an overall improvement in beam transmission efficiency. We are exploring how to combine existing simulations with experimental data and automate the collection procedure so that more advanced surrogate models can be created over time.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing and Exploring Training Recipes for Large-Scale Transformer-Based Weather Prediction

Abstract The rapid rise of deep learning (DL) in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has led to a proliferation of models which forecast atmospheric variables with comparable or superior skill than traditional physics-based NWP. However, among these leading DL models, there is a wide variance in both the training settings and architecture used. Further, the lack of thorough ablation studies makes it hard to discern which components are most critical to success. In this work, we show that it is possible to attain high forecast skill even with relatively off-the-shelf architectures, simple training procedures, and moderate compute budgets. Specifically, we train a minimally modified Swin Transformer V2 (SwinV2) on ERA5 data and find that it attains superior skill in terms of mean-square errors of deterministic forecasts when compared against the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). Almost all DL–NWP systems share a core set of hyperparameters and design decisions. To aid and expedite future DL–NWP research, we present an in-depth, systematic exploration of different loss functions, model sizes and depths, patch sizes, and multistep training objectives. We also examine the model performance with metrics beyond the typical accuracy (ACC) and RMSE and investigate how the performance scales with model size. Through our open-source code, scoring pipelines, and models, we share our findings on key aspects of the training pipeline. These ablations reduce the necessity for expensive hyperparameter tuning and lower the barrier to entry for future DL–NWP research. Significance Statement This study investigates the potential of using large-scale transformer-based models for weather prediction, showing that it is possible to achieve high forecast accuracy with simpler, off-the-shelf architectures. By training a minimally modified SwinV2 transformer on ERA5 data, we show that the model achieves competitive forecast skill in terms of mean-square error for key variables, outperforming the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at all lead times. Our findings suggest that effective training strategies, such as multistep fine-tuning and channel-weighted losses, significantly enhance the model’s performance. However, we also highlight that these improvements come with trade-offs in other areas, such as ensemble spread and high-frequency spatial detail. This work highlights the promise of deep learning in improving weather forecasts, which could lead to better preparedness and response to weather events, ultimately benefiting society by providing more reliable weather predictions.

Willard, Jared D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗

NASA NTRS2017

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project: Advanced Collision Avoidance System for UAS (ACAS Xu) Interoperability White Paper Presentation

The Phase 1 DAA Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) provided requirements for two classes of DAA equipment: equipment Class 1 contains the basic DAA equipment required to assist a pilot in remaining well clear, while equipment Class 2 integrates the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance (TCAS) II system. Thus, the Class 1 system provides RWC functionality only, while the Class 2 system is intended to provide both RWC and Collision Avoidance (CA) functionality, in compliance with the Minimum Aviation System Performance (MASPS) for the Interoperability of Airborne Collision Avoidance Systems. The FAAs TCAS Program Office is currently developing Airborne Collision Avoidance System X (ACAS X) to support the objectives of the Federal Aviation Administrations (FAA) Next Generation Air Transportation System Program (NextGen). ACAS X has a suite of variants with a common underlying design that are intended to be optimized for their intended airframes and operations. ACAS Xu being is designed for UAS and allows for new surveillance technologies and tailored logic for platforms with different performance characteristics. In addition to Collision Avoidance (CA) alerting and guidance, ACAS Xu is being tuned to provide RWC alerting and guidance in compliance with the SC 228 DAA MOPS. With a single logic performing both RWC and CA functions, ACAS Xu will provide industry with an integrated DAA solution that addresses many of the interoperability shortcomings of Phase I systems. While the MOPS for ACAS Xu will specify an integrated DAA system, it will need to show compliance with the RWC alerting thresholds and alerting requirements defined in the DAA Phase 2 MOPS. Further, some functional components of the ACAS Xu system such as the remote pilots displayed guidance might be mostly references to the corresponding requirements in the DAA MOPS. To provide a seamless, integrated, RWC-CA system to assist the pilot in remaining well clear and avoiding collisions, several issues need to be addressed within the Phase 2 SC-228 DAA efforts. Interoperability of the RWC and CA alerting and guidance, and ensuring pilot comprehension, compliance and performance, will be a primary research area.

detect and avoid↗

DOE OSTI2024

Intrinsic scintillation performance & europium concentration effects in RbSr 2 I 5 and RbSr 2 Br 5 scintillators

Scintillators play crucial roles in homeland security applications like gamma ray spectroscopy and high energy X-ray radiography. For promising new scintillators, fine-tuning the luminescent dopant concentration is one avenue to further improve their performance and tailor their properties. In this work, the effects of europium dopant concentrations on the crystal growth, luminescence and scintillation properties of RbSr 2 Br 5 and RbSr 2 I 5 crystals was investigated. Nine transparent 7 mm diameter single crystals were grown via the Vertical Bridgman method. Here, the optical band gap of RbSr 2 Br 5 was 5.9 eV and that of RbSr 2 I 5 was 4.7 eV. High scintillation performance was achieved with a relatively low europium concentration of 1 mol%. For both RbSr 2 Br 5 :Eu and RbSr 2 I 5 :Eu crystals, light yield of 60–90,000 ph/MeV, energy resolution 2.8–4.0 % at 662 keV, and X-ray afterglow 0.79–1.5 % at 2 ms were obtained.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Upgrade to Fixed and Translating Scintillation-Based Loss Detector System in the Fermilab Drift Tube Linac

The closed-off structure of the Fermilab Drift Tube Linac precludes a robust array of instrumentation from directly monitoring the H- beam that is accelerated from 750 keV to 116 MeV. To improve beam tuning and op-erational assessment of Drift Tube Linac performance, scintillator-based loss monitors were previously installed along the exterior of the first two accelerating cavities to assess low energy beam losses. Here we present a recent upgrade to the loss monitor system, including significant improvements in analog signal processing to address baseline-interfering noise; digitization of the signals to enable regular operational use and tuning; and a new remote operation upgrade of the translating loss monitor with precise positioning of the loss monitor along its nine-foot track. Data from the fixed and translating de-tectors collected under varying beam conditions validate the utility of the upgrade.

Chen, Erin V. [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000215467899)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performance-Aligned LLMs for Generating Fast HPC Code

Optimizing scientific software is a difficult task because codebases are often large and complex, and performance can depend upon several factors including the algorithm, its implementation, and hardware among others. Causes of poor performance can originate from disparate sources and be difficult to diagnose. Recent years have seen a multitude of work that use large language models (LLMs) to assist in software development tasks. However, these tools are trained to model the distribution of code as text, and are not specifically designed to understand performance aspects of code. In this work, we introduce a reinforcement learning based methodology to align the outputs of code LLMs with performance. This allows us to build upon the current code modeling capabilities of LLMs and extend them to generate better performing code. Here, we demonstrate that our fine-tuned model improves the expected speedup of generated code over base models for a set of benchmark tasks from 0.9 to 1.6 for serial code and 1.9 to 4.5 for OpenMP parallel code.

Computer science↗

NASA NTRS2016

Advanced Control Considerations for Turbofan Engine Design

This paper covers the application of a model-based engine control (MBEC) methodology featuring a self tuning on-board model for an aircraft turbofan engine simulation. The nonlinear engine model is capable of modeling realistic engine performance, allowing for a verification of the advanced control methodology over a wide range of operating points and life cycle conditions. The on-board model is a piece-wise linear model derived from the nonlinear engine model and updated using an optimal tuner Kalman Filter estimation routine, which enables the on-board model to self-tune to account for engine performance variations. MBEC is used here to show how advanced control architectures can improve efficiency during the design phase of a turbofan engine by reducing conservative operability margins. The operability margins that can be reduced, such as stall margin, can expand the engine design space and offer potential for efficiency improvements. Application of MBEC architecture to a nonlinear engine simulation is shown to reduce the thrust specific fuel consumption by approximately 1% over the baseline design, while maintaining safe operation of the engine across the flight envelope.

control↗

NASA NTRS2012

An Integrated Approach for Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation and Fault Diagnostics

A Kalman filter-based approach for integrated on-line aircraft engine performance estimation and gas path fault diagnostics is presented. This technique is specifically designed for underdetermined estimation problems where there are more unknown system parameters representing deterioration and faults than available sensor measurements. A previously developed methodology is applied to optimally design a Kalman filter to estimate a vector of tuning parameters, appropriately sized to enable estimation. The estimated tuning parameters can then be transformed into a larger vector of health parameters representing system performance deterioration and fault effects. The results of this study show that basing fault isolation decisions solely on the estimated health parameter vector does not provide ideal results. Furthermore, expanding the number of the health parameters to address additional gas path faults causes a decrease in the estimation accuracy of those health parameters representative of turbomachinery performance deterioration. However, improved fault isolation performance is demonstrated through direct analysis of the estimated tuning parameters produced by the Kalman filter. This was found to provide equivalent or superior accuracy compared to the conventional fault isolation approach based on the analysis of sensed engine outputs, while simplifying online implementation requirements. Results from the application of these techniques to an aircraft engine simulation are presented and discussed.

imon, Donald L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Transformers and Long Short-Term Memory Transfer Learning for GenIV Reactor Temperature Time Series Forecasting

Automated monitoring of the coolant temperature can enable autonomous operation of generation IV reactors (GenIV), thus reducing their operating and maintenance costs. Automation can be accomplished with machine learning (ML) models trained on historical sensor data. However, the performance of ML usually depends on the availability of large amount of training data, which is difficult to obtain for GenIV, as this technology is still under development. We propose the use of transfer learning (TL), which involves utilizing knowledge across different domains, to compensate for this lack of training data. TL can be used to create pre-trained ML models with data from small-scale research facilities, which can then be fine-tuned to monitor GenIV reactors. In this work, we develop pre-trained Transformer and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks by training them on temperature measurements from thermal hydraulic flow loops operating with water and Galinstan fluids at room temperature at Argonne National Laboratory. The pre-trained models are then fine-tuned and re-trained with minimal additional data to perform predictions of the time series of high temperature measurements obtained from the Engineering Test Unit (ETU) at Kairos Power. The performance of the LSTM and Transformer networks is investigated by varying the size of the lookback window and forecast horizon. The results of this study show that LSTM networks have lower prediction errors than Transformers, but LSTM errors increase more rapidly with increasing lookback window size and forecast horizon compared to the Transformer errors.

LSTM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-Based Autotuning for Randomized Sketching Algorithms in Regression Problems

Algorithms from Randomized Numerical Linear Algebra (RandNLA) are known to be effective in handling high-dimensional computational problems, providing high-quality empirical performance as well as strong probabilistic guarantees. However, their practical application is complicated by the fact that the user needs to set various algorithm-specific tuning parameters which are different from those used in traditional NLA. This paper demonstrates how a surrogate-based autotuning approach can be used to address fundamental problems of parameter selection in RandNLA algorithms. In particular, we provide a detailed investigation of surrogate-based autotuning for sketch-and-precondition (SAP)-based randomized least squares methods, which have been one of the great success stories in modern RandNLA. Empirical results show that our surrogate-based autotuning approach can achieve near-optimal performance with much less tuning cost than a random search (up to about 7.6x fewer trials of different parameter configurations). Moreover, while our experiments focus on least squares, our results demonstrate a general-purpose autotuning pipeline applicable to any kind of RandNLA algorithm.

Cho, Younghyun↗

NASA NTRS2016

GOES-16 On-Orbit Dual Isolation Performance Characterization Results

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series (GOES-R) is the first of the next generation geostationary weather satellites. GOES-R successfully launched on November19, 2016 and renamed GOES-16 upon entering geostationary orbit. Subsequently, GOES-16post-launch testing began. This paper presents the GOES-16 Satellite Dynamic Interaction Characterization results for the Earth Pointed Platform (EPP) stowed, referred to as the Reaction Wheel Assembly (RWA) Isolation Only configuration, and deployed, referred to as the Dual Isolation configuration. GOES-R represents a quantum increase in Earth and solar weather observation capabilities, with 4 times the resolution, 5 times the observation rate, and 3 times the number of spectral bands for Earth observations. With the improved resolution, comes the instrument suites increased sensitivity to disturbances over a broad spectrum 0-512Hz. Sources of disturbance include reaction wheels, thruster firings for station keeping and momentum management, gimbal motion, and internal instrument disturbances. To minimize the impact of these disturbances, the baseline design included an EPP, a stiff optical bench to which the two nadir pointed instruments are collocated together with the Guidance Navigation Control (GNC) star trackers and Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs). The EPP is passively isolated from the spacecraft bus with Honeywell D-Strut isolators providing attenuation for frequencies above 5 Hz in all six degrees-of-freedom. To reduce the risk of wheel disturbances impacting performance, a secondary passive isolation system manufactured by Moog CSA Engineering was incorporated under each of the six 160 Nms reaction wheels, tuned to provide attenuation at frequencies above 50 Hz. Integrated wheel and isolator testing was performed on a Kistler table at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Pre-launch Satellite Dynamic Interaction Characterization high-fidelity simulations and ground testing were conducted to evaluate jitter performance for two cases: 1) deployed EPP and reaction wheel (Dual Isolation) and 2) EPP hard mounted (RWA Isolation Only) to the spacecraft. A comparison of pre-launch to post-launch Satellite Dynamic Interaction Characterization results are also presented in this paper.

Carter, Delano↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Analysis of Model Predictive Control and MPC-Informed Rule-Based Control for Thermal Storage Operation in Ultra-Low Temperature 4th Generation District Heating Networks

The integration of thermal storage and heat pumps in district heating networks (DHNs) can significantly enhance operational flexibility and energy efficiency; however, the practical deployment of advanced control strategies is often hindered by forecasting requirements and computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of thermal storage control strategies in an ultra-low-temperature fourth-generation DHN, focusing on the development of a simplified rule-based control (RBC) explicitly informed by Model Predictive Control (MPC) behavior. The proposed methodology systematically analyzes the charging and discharging decisions of an MPC-controlled system under ideal forecasting conditions and extracts recurrent control patterns as a function of key system variables, including outdoor temperature, thermal demand, and electricity price. These patterns are translated into a set of structured time- and condition-based rules, resulting in an MPC-informed RBC that embeds predictive insights while preserving implementation simplicity and operational transparency. The approach is validated on a realistic mixed-use urban district in Denver, Colorado, USA, equipped with a centralized air-source heat pump, distributed water-to-water heat pumps, and a central thermal storage unit. Results show that the tuned RBC attains approximately 96% of ideal MPC economic performance (-27% of costs), preserves values of technical and environmental indicators (reduction only of 2-3%), and substantially reduces complexity. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the RBC under varying operational conditions (i.e., ambient temperature, electricity price). Overall, the study demonstrates that MPC-informed rule-based control represents an effective trade-off between control performance and real-world applicability, enabling the integration of additional system components while maintaining simplicity, robustness, and ease of implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗