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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Codebase release 0.5 for mapyde

Searches for new physics at the Large Hadron Collider have constrained many models of physics beyond the Standard Model. Many searches also provide resources that allow them to be reinterpreted in the context of other models. We describe a reinterpretation pipeline that examines previously untested models of new physics using supplementary information from ATLAS Supersymmetry (SUSY) searches in a way that provides accurate constraints even for models that differ meaningfully from the benchmark models of the original analysis. The public analysis information, such as public analysis routines and serialized probability models, is combined with common event generation and simulation toolkits MADGRAPH, PYTHIA8, and DELPHES into workflows steered by TOML configuration files, and bundled into the mapyde Python package. The use of mapyde is demonstrated by constraining previously untested SUSY models with compressed sleptons and electroweakinos using ATLAS results.

Stark, Giordon↗

Finding Real Uncertainties From Physical Simulations

Modeling strong gravitational lenses is computationally expensive for the complex data from modern and next-generation cosmic surveys. Deep learning has emerged as a promising approach for finding lenses and predicting lensing parameters, such as the Einstein radius. Mean-variance Estimators (MVEs) are a common approach for obtaining aleatoric (data) uncertainties from a neural network prediction. However, neural networks have not been demonstrated to perform well on out-of-domain target data successfully - e.g., when trained on simulated data and applied to real, observational data. In this work, we perform the first study of the efficacy of MVEs in combination with unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) on strong lensing data. The source domain data is noiseless, and the target domain data has noise mimicking modern cosmology surveys. We find that adding UDA to MVE increases the accuracy on the target data by a factor of about two over an MVE model without UDA. Including UDA also permits much more well-calibrated aleatoric uncertainty predictions. Advancements in this approach may enable future applications of MVE models to real observational data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and game theory for cyber security risk analysis in nuclear power plants

Nuclear Power Plants and energy systems have become more prone to cyber-attacks with their digitalization and the increased use of smart equipment. Hence, it is important to quantify the risk associated with cyber-attacks in such systems. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment which involves studying the evolution of a system due to random events and operator and attacker actions during a cyber-attack by employing a physics-based model of the system is a suitable framework to quantify cybersecurity risk in nuclear power plants. In addition to the plant dynamics, it is also important to model the strategies of the attackers and plant operators for an effective cybersecurity risk assessment. Game theory provides a set of necessary tools to model such strategic interactions. In this research, a framework that integrates dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with game theory for cybersecurity risk analysis in nuclear power plants is presented. The mathematical formulation is derived based on the theory of continuous event trees. We propose a game theory based action model, that utilizes physics-based rewards to define the strategies of attackers and operators at every decision epoch. As a case study, the risk associated with cyber-attacks on the digital components in the secondary side of a pressurized water reactor is studied using a reduced order model. A set of attacker actions and a set of operator actions are defined for the system. The operator and attacker interactions were modelled using simultaneous game, their action policies were computed using the concept of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and the evolution of the system was studied.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Accelerating Computational Materials Discovery with Machine Learning and Cloud High-Performance Computing: from Large-Scale Screening to Experimental Validation

High-throughput computational materials discovery has promised significant acceleration of the design and discovery of new materials for many years. Despite a surge in interest and activity, the constraints imposed by large-scale computational resources present a significant bottleneck. Furthermore, examples of large-scale computational discovery carried through experimental validation remain scarce, especially for materials with product applicability. In this paper, we demonstrate how this vision became reality by first combining state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) models and traditional physics-based models on cloud high performance computing (HPC) resources to quickly navigate through more than 32 million candidates and predict around half a million potentially stable materials. Focusing on solid-state electrolytes for battery applications, our discovery pipeline further identified 18 promising candidates with new compositions and rediscovered a decade’s worth of collective knowledge in the field as a byproduct. By employing around one thousand virtual machines in the cloud, this process took less than 80 hours. We then synthesized and experimentally characterized the structures and conductivities of our top candidates, the Na x Li 3-x YCl 6 (0.5 ≤ x ≤ 2.5) series, demonstrating the potential of these compounds to serve as solid electrolytes. Additional candidate materials are currently under experimental investigation that could offer more examples of the computational discovery of new phases of Li- and Na-conducting solid electrolytes. We believe this unprecedented approach of synergistically integrating AI models and cloud HPC not only accelerates materials discovery but also showcases the potency of AI-guided experimentation in unlocking transformative scientific breakthroughs with real-world applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Ab initio leading order effective potential for elastic proton scattering based on the symmetry-adapted no-core shell model

Calculating microscopic optical potentials for elastic scattering at intermediate energies from light nuclei in an ab initio fashion within the Watson expansion has been established within the last few years. Based on the Watson expansion of the multiple scattering series, we employ a nonlocal translationally invariant nuclear density derived within the symmetry-adapted no-core shell model (SA-NCSM) framework from a chiral next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) nucleon-nucleon interaction and the very same interaction for a consistent full-folding calculation of the effective (optical) potential for nucleon-nucleus scattering for medium-heavy nuclei. The leading order effective (optical) folding potential is computed by integrating over a translationally invariant SA-NCSM one-body scalar density, spin-projected momentum distribution, and the Wolfenstein amplitudes 𝐴, 𝐶, and 𝑀. The resulting nonlocal potentials serve as input for a momentum space Lippmann-Schwinger equation. In the SA-NCSM, the model space is systematically up-selected using Sp⁡(3,ℝ) symmetry considerations. For the light nucleus of 6 He, we establish a systematic selection scheme in the SA-NCSM for scattering observables. Then, we apply this scheme to calculations of scattering observables, such as differential cross sections, analyzing powers, and spin rotation functions for elastic proton scattering from 20 Ne and 40 Ca in the energy regime between 65 and 200 MeV, and compare to available data. Furthermore, our calculations show that the leading order effective nucleon-nucleus potential in the Watson expansion of multiple scattering theory obtained from an up-selected SA-NCSM model space describes 40 Ca elastic scattering observables reasonably well to about 60 degrees in the center-of-mass frame, which coincides roughly with the validity of the NNLO chiral interaction used to calculate both the nucleon-nucleon amplitudes and the one-body scalar and spin nuclear densities.

Ab initio calculations↗

Commissioning of the Mu2e tracker DAQ, planning for the Vertical Slice Test and pre-pattern recognition studies

The primary objective of the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab is to search for the neutrino-less coherent $\mu \rightarrow e$ conversion in the field of an aluminum nucleus ($\mu^- \text{Al} \rightarrow e^- \text{Al}$). The signature of this process is a monochromatic Conversion Electron (CE) with an energy of approximately 104.97 MeV \cite{bartoszek2015mu2e}. Within the Standard Model (SM), the branching ratio for this process, including neutrino masses and oscillation, is expected to be less than $\mathcal{O}(10^{-50})$. This value is far beyond current experimental capabilities. However, models of physics beyond the SM predict much higher relative rates, approaching an observable level. The SINDRUM II experiment set an upper limit on muon conversion at $7 \times 10^{-13}$ (90\% CL) on Au target \cite{SINDRUMII:2006dvw}, and the Mu2e collaboration aims to improve this limit by four orders of magnitude. Observing this process would provide a clear evidence of physics beyond the Standard Model. A brief discussion of the theoretical and experimental aspects is provided in Chapter \ref{intr}. Mu2e adopts a sophisticated experimental setup to achieve its goals, further described in Chapter \ref{mu2echapter}. The central part of the Mu2e detector is the tracker, that consists of 18 tracking stations. The tracker must provide excellent momentum resolution, approximately 1 MeV/c, to distinguish the monochromatic CE signal from the background. To minimize the energy losses, a straw tube tracker will be used \cite{bobbb}. Chapter \ref{chaptertrk} provides an overview of the straw tracker design and its working principles. This Thesis presents a comprehensive study of the Mu2e tracker, covering complementary aspects from initial commissioning to optimization and first steps of the calibration processes. My work at Fermilab has been focused on the complete Data Acquisition (DAQ) testing from both hardware and software perspectives. I was involved in the commissioning of the Mu2e DAQ system and the Vertical Slice Test (VST) of the tracker. The VST encompasses the entire testing chain, from the straws to the readout, and to processed data on disk. I was also focused on the offline analysis, especially on pre-pattern recognition studies, to explore the best methods for identifying $\delta$-electrons during the data taking. Chapter \ref{commissioning} details the commissioning of the tracker DAQ system, emphasizing the importance of understanding of the readout process before the data acquisition. This includes validating the readout logic and firmware through Monte Carlo simulations to confirm functionality and buffering, monitoring the quality of the data from the tracker preamplifiers and front-end electronics, and assessing overall DAQ performance to ensure reliability during future calibration and data-taking. Chapter \ref{planning} discusses the initial steps towards the tracker calibration. The ultimate goal is to perform a time calibration of the first assembled station of the tracker using cosmic muons, aiming for a longitudinal hit position resolution better than 4 cm. This involves determining the signal propagation times and channel-to-channel delays. I performed a Monte Carlo study to determine the impact of the station orientation on the quality of the calibration, in particular on the cosmic track reconstruction, focusing on potential biases that could arise. These studies provide essential insights into the operation, optimization, and calibration of the Mu2e tracker system. Given the high data volume expected during Mu2e operations, estimated at approximately 7 PBytes per year, optimizing memory usage and minimizing CPU consumption are critical. A significant challenge lies in effectively flagging $\delta$-electron hits, which are the primary source of hits in the tracker, without compromising the efficiency of CE hit detection and track reconstruction. A detailed study of pre-pattern recognition and a thorough comparison of two $\delta$-electron flagging algorithms is provided in Chapter \ref{delta}. In Chapter \ref{conclusions}, the findings are concisely summarized, offering a comprehensive synthesis of the research and emphasizing the key insights derived from this study.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Urban weather modeling using WRF: linking physical assumptions, code implementation, and observational needs

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model includes urban schemes that simulate the influence of urban surfaces on the atmosphere using parameterizations for flux, and radiative exchanges. Three core schemes – the Bulk urban parameterization, Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), and Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Model (MLUCM) – represent increasing levels of complexity. Although the parameterizations within these urban schemes are described in the literature, their specific implementation remains poorly documented, thus slowing down model development efforts. This manuscript provides a roadmap to the three urban schemes in WRF version 4.5.2, presenting equations using the same symbols as in the model code, along with references to code lines, and including graphics and explanations that connect the code to its physical foundations. Our thorough review of the urban parameterizations implemented in WRF version 4.5.2 highlighted a handful of parameters that may introduce discontinuities in simulations: (i) in the SLUCM, a 1 mm h −1 rain rate threshold is employed to switch between two minimum moisture availability parameterizations, thus impacting latent heat flux calculations; (ii) in the SLUCM a threshold is used to partition shortwave radiation into direct and diffuse components; (iii) in all three urban schemes, the bulk Richardson number is employed to select the similarity function, which influences the vertical distribution of heat and momentum. We also identified a highly simplified treatment of the radiative balance on roof surfaces. The implications of these simplifications can be assessed through targeted observations across relevant conditions, including varying precipitation rates, cloud cover, and transitions between stability regimes. Furthermore, the widespread application of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory in these urban schemes warrants model evaluation under highly stable and unstable conditions and in heterogeneous urban settings with variable land cover and building heights on scales finer than model resolution. To address these challenges, we offer guidance on observational strategies, emphasizing the need for multi-parametric measurements to capture potential compensating biases and multi-height measurements that align with the levels where quantities are diagnostic and prognosed in the model (i.e., the lowest atmospheric level of the WRF model). Finally, our inspection of the code revealed implementation bugs that have now been corrected in WRF versions 4.6.0 and 4.6.1. Sensitivity tests over the Atlanta urban area show that these corrections affect surface temperatures, underscoring the importance of performing rigorous documentation and verification of the implementation of parameterizations in model code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of physics-consistent conditional diffusion model to overcome data scarcity in critical heat flux

Deep generative modeling provides a powerful pathway to overcome data scarcity in energy-related applications where experimental data are often limited. By learning the underlying probability distribution of the training dataset, deep generative models, such as the diffusion model, can generate high-fidelity synthetic samples that statistically resemble the training data. Such synthetic data generation can significantly enrich the size and diversity of the available training data, and more importantly, improve the robustness of downstream machine learning models in predictive tasks. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of diffusion models for overcoming data scarcity in nuclear energy applications. By leveraging a public dataset on critical heat flux which covers a wide range of commercial nuclear reactor operational conditions, we developed a diffusion model that can generate an arbitrary amount of synthetic samples. Since a vanilla diffusion model can only generate samples randomly, we also developed a conditional diffusion model capable of generating targeted critical heat flux data under user-specified thermal-hydraulic conditions. The performance of the diffusion model was evaluated based on its ability to capture empirical feature distributions and pair-wise correlations, as well as to maintain physical consistency. The results showed that both the diffusion model and conditional diffusion model can successfully generate realistic and physics-consistent critical heat flux data. Furthermore, uncertainty quantification results demonstrate that the conditional diffusion model is highly effective in augmenting critical heat flux data while maintaining acceptable levels of uncertainty.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Data‐driven variational method for discrepancy modeling: Dynamics with small‐strain nonlinear elasticity and viscoelasticity

Abstract The effective inclusion of a priori knowledge when embedding known data in physics‐based models of dynamical systems can ensure that the reconstructed model respects physical principles, while simultaneously improving the accuracy of the solution in the previously unseen regions of state space. This paper presents a physics‐constrained data‐driven discrepancy modeling method that variationally embeds known data in the modeling framework. The hierarchical structure of the method yields fine scale variational equations that facilitate the derivation of residuals which are comprised of the first‐principles theory and sensor‐based data from the dynamical system. The embedding of the sensor data via residual terms leads to discrepancy‐informed closure models that yield a method which is driven not only by boundary and initial conditions, but also by measurements that are taken at only a few observation points in the target system. Specifically, the data‐embedding term serves as residual‐based least‐squares loss function, thus retaining variational consistency. Another important relation arises from the interpretation of the stabilization tensor as a kernel function, thereby incorporating a priori knowledge of the problem and adding computational intelligence to the modeling framework. Numerical test cases show that when known data is taken into account, the data driven variational (DDV) method can correctly predict the system response in the presence of several types of discrepancies. Specifically, the damped solution and correct energy time histories are recovered by including known data in the undamped situation. Morlet wavelet analyses reveal that the surrogate problem with embedded data recovers the fundamental frequency band of the target system. The enhanced stability and accuracy of the DDV method is manifested via reconstructed displacement and velocity fields that yield time histories of strain and kinetic energies which match the target systems. The proposed DDV method also serves as a procedure for restoring eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a deficient dynamical system when known data is taken into account, as shown in the numerical test cases presented here.

Masud, Arif↗

Developing a digital twin framework for remotely monitoring nuclear reactor facilities

A digital twin must seek to represent all applicable functional components of the system of interest. Different expertise is required for understanding the physical system being modeled than the skills needed for transforming those models into a functional digital twin through physics modeling, machine learning analysis, and visualization. The diversity of knowledge requires a multi-disciplinary team to ensure all system details are captured. Team members also need a method to verify that the data they generate within their domain can be effectively communicated to professionals in other fields. To address this challenge, this work provides an approach for developing a digital twin framework to remotely monitoring nuclear facilities. Through this, general knowledge of the framework is presented along with two examples to solidify the process. The AGN-201 digital twin and microreactor digital twins provide varying levels of complexity in a potential nuclear facility, where common threads are identified and lessons learned are provided. The goal of this research is to aid future researchers by providing a formula for a successful digital twin and in turn reducing the development time of nuclear system digital twins, specifically for remote monitoring.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Testing NeuralGCM's capability to simulate future heatwaves based on the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave event

AI-based weather and climate models are emerging as accurate and computationally efficient tools. Beyond weather forecasting, they also show promise to accelerate storyline analyses. We evaluate NeuralGCM’s ability to simulate an extreme heatwave against the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), a physics-based climate model. NeuralGCM accurately replicates the targeted event, and generates stable and realistic mid-century projections. However, due to the absence of land feedbacks, NeuralGCM underestimates the projected warming amplitude compared to physics-based model references.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep-learning-driven simulations of boundary layer clouds over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract. Based on long-term observations at the Southern Great Plains site by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for training and validation, a deep-learning model is developed to simulate the daytime evolution of boundary layer clouds (BLCs) from the perspective of land–atmosphere coupling. The model takes ARM measurements (including early-morning soundings and diurnally varying surface meteorological conditions and heat fluxes) as inputs and predicts hourly estimates (including cloud occurrence, the positions of cloud boundaries, and the vertical profile of the cloud fraction) as outputs. The deep-learning model offers good agreement with the observed cloud fields, especially in the accuracy with which cloud occurrence and base height are reproduced. When the inputs are substituted by reanalysis data from ERA5 and MERRA-2, the outputs of the deep-learning model provide a better agreement with observation than the cloud fields extracted from ERA5 and MERRA-2 themselves. Thus, the deep-learning model shows great potential to serve as a diagnostic tool for the performance of physics-based models in simulating stratiform and cumulus clouds. By quantifying biases in clouds and attributing them to the simulated atmospheric state variables versus the model-parameterized cloud processes, this observation-based deep-learning model may offer insights into the directions needed to improve the simulation of BLCs in physics-based models for weather forecasting and climate prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiphysics simulation of recent experiments on alkali‐silica reaction expansion in reinforced concrete members

Alkali‐silica reaction (ASR) is an important degradation process that causes volumetric expansion and damage in concrete, and is affected significantly by the local temperature, moisture and stress conditions that often vary across the regions of a structure. Numerical simulation is essential to predict the progression and effects of ASR on the performance of structures. Because of the interactions between thermal and moisture transport and mechanical deformation, it is important for numerical models to represent all these physical phenomena and the coupling between them. Simulations of ASR in reinforced concrete (RC) structures are further complicated by the need to capture interactions between concrete and embedded reinforcing bars. Here, this paper describes the implementation of a scalable, coupled‐physics ASR model for simulating RC structures and assesses the ability of that model to predict ASR‐induced expansion in recent laboratory tests on RC block and beam specimens. These laboratory tests and the simulation approach were selected because of their applicability to RC structural‐scale simulations. This validation study helps builds confidence the ability of this approach to model ASR expansion in large, complex RC structures, which is a current high‐priority need.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Combining physics-based and data-driven models for quantitatively accurate plasma profile prediction that extrapolates well; with application to DIII-D, AUG, and ITER tokamaks

For design, scenario planning, and control, ITER and all other envisioned tokamaks rely on a variety of statistical and physics-based models to extrapolate to unseen regimes; most notably from low plasma current to high. A 'meta-learning' methodology for combining the accuracy of data-driven models with the generalizability of physics-based models is described and tested, yielding a 5–10 percent improvement in performance beyond either alone for the task of extrapolating time-dependent plasma profile prediction from low- to high- plasma current DIII-D tokamak discharges. Meanwhile, it is shown that both machine learning models extrapolated far-distribution and state-of-the-art 'physics-based' profile predictors fare worse than merely assuming plasma profiles do not change from their initial values. Finally, a variety of other mechanisms for helping data-driven models generalize—transfer learning, adding contextual information from physics simulators, and adding data from the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak—are attempted for similar extrapolation tasks but, in the methodology used in this paper, yield no significant improvement beyond simple data-driven models. Results are summarized in figures 15 and 16.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Micromechanical Surrogate Machine Learning Model for Creep Deformation Modeling

Process variability during the manufacture of gas turbine engine hot section components can significantly affect the material’s resulting microstructure. In casting, for instance, geometric variation within a component (thin sections versus thick sections, radial location) influences cooling rates and the resulting grain size. The high temperature creep response is known to be sensitive to grain size owing to a diffusional creep mechanism which occurs more readily along grain boundaries. Microstructural variation correspondingly drives mechanical behavior which propagates into component scale performance uncertainty. These factors are essential when planning inspection, maintenance, and repair strategies within a reliability framework. These benefits provide opportunities to increase overall energy efficiency through refined margins. Critically, there is an opportunity to bolster existing data-driven reliability models using physics-driven process-structure-property relations. Here we present recent work establishing a framework for evaluating the probabilistic creep performance of high-temperature materials. A novel microstructure-sensitive crystal plasticity finite element model is established that captures both grain boundary and crystallographic deformation effects. The computationally expensive physics model is calibrated using a statistical approach and this high-fidelity model is subsequently used to train a computationally efficient machine learning surrogate model. The surrogate model is essential for sampling a large ensemble of simulated structure-property pair results. The ensemble data are then mined to extract salient trends to be incorporated into a microstructure-sensitive reliability model. The proposed approach represents a novel way to capture microstructure-sensitive trends from physics-based models within a modern reliability framework.

Fernandez-Zelaia, Patxi [ORNL]↗

Accelerating Multiphase Simulations With Denoising Diffusion Model Driven Initializations

This study introduces a hybrid fluid simulation approach that integrates generative diffusion models with physics‐based simulations, aiming at reducing the computational costs of flow simulations while still honoring all the physical properties of interest. Pore‐scale simulations enhance our understanding of applications such as assessing hydrogen and storage efficiency in underground reservoirs. Nevertheless, they are computationally expensive and the presence of non‐unique solutions can require multiple simulations within a single geometry. To overcome the computational cost hurdle, we propose a method that couples generative diffusion models and physics‐based simulations. While training the data‐driven model, we simultaneously generate initial conditions and perform physics‐based simulations using these. This integrated approach enables us to receive real‐time feedback on a single compute node equipped with both CPUs and GPUs. By efficiently managing these processes within a single compute node, we can continuously monitor performance and halt training once the model meets the specified criteria. To test our model, we generate realizations in a real Berea sandstone fracture which shows that our technique is up to 4.4 times faster than commonly used flow simulation initializations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗