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DOE OSTI2025

Establishing nationwide power system vulnerability index across US counties using interpretable machine learning

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, in this work, we collected ∼179 million power outage records at 15-min intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15 % of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability across the US counties over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties and those located along regional transmission boundaries tend to exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Valued peaks: Sustainable water allocation for small hydropower plants in an era of explicit ecological needs

Optimizing hydropower operations to balance economic profitability and support functioning ecosystem services is integral to river management policy. In this article, we propose a dynamic, constrained optimization framework for small hydropower plants (SHPs) to evaluate trade-offs between economic profitability and socio-ecological requirements. Specifically, we examine the balance between short-term losses in hydropower generation and the potential for compensatory benefits in the form of revenue from recreational ecosystem services, irrespective of the direct beneficiary. Our framework integrates a fish habitat model, a hydropower optimization model, and a recreational ecosystem service estimate to evaluate different environmental flow scenarios. The optimization process gives three outflow release scenarios, informed by previous streamflow realisations (dam inflow), and designed environmental flow constraints. The framework is applied and tested for the river Kuusinkijoki in North-eastern Finland, which is a habitat for migratory brown trout and grayling populations. We show that the revenue loss due to the environmental flow constraints arises through a reduction in revenue per generated energy unit and through a reduction in turbine efficiency. Additionally, the simulation results reveal that all the designed environmental flow constraints cannot be met simultaneously. Under the environmental flow scenario with both minimum flow and flow ramping rate constraints, the annual hydropower revenue decreases by 16.5 %. An annual increase of 8 % in recreational fishing visits offsets the revenue loss. In conclusion, the developed framework provides knowledge of the costs and benefits of hydropower environmental flow constraints and guides the prioritizing process of environmental measures.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Energy Storage Market Transformation Through Stored Energy Targets

Aggressive energy decarbonization targets will require the rapid deployment of renewable energy in the U.S. in coming years. As the amount of variable generation on the grid grows, there will be an increasing need for long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies to maintain grid reliability. Meeting that need will require a suite of technology alternatives with different capabilities. Many of these alternatives, however, are in a nascent state and face significant commercialization challenges. In the last decade, 10 U.S. states have enacted energy storage mandates as a vehicle for market transformation to accommodate energy storage. Those mandates, however, fail to send appropriate investment signals for LDES technologies because they are based on energy storage capacity and treat all technologies the same, regardless of duration. This paper explores the idea of replacing capacity-based storage procurement targets with stored energy targets, which would be technology-neutral policies designed to enable the market transformation necessary to support a competitive LDES industry.

Twitchell, Jeremy B.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Higher education responses to COVID-19 in the United States: Evidence for the impacts of university policy

With a dataset of testing and case counts from over 1,400 institutions of higher education (IHEs) in the United States, we analyze the number of infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 in the counties surrounding these IHEs during the Fall 2020 semester (August to December, 2020). We find that counties with IHEs that remained primarily online experienced fewer cases and deaths during the Fall 2020 semester; whereas before and after the semester, these two groups had almost identical COVID-19 incidence. Additionally, we see fewer cases and deaths in counties with IHEs that reported conducting any on-campus testing compared to those that reported none. To perform these two comparisons, we used a matching procedure designed to create well-balanced groups of counties that are aligned as much as possible along age, race, income, population, and urban/rural categories—demographic variables that have been shown to be correlated with COVID-19 outcomes. We conclude with a case study of IHEs in Massachusetts—a state with especially high detail in our dataset—which further highlights the importance of IHE-affiliated testing for the broader community. The results in this work suggest that campus testing can itself be thought of as a mitigation policy and that allocating additional resources to IHEs to support efforts to regularly test students and staff would be beneficial to mitigating the spread of COVID-19 in a pre-vaccine environment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deconvolution for Aerial Measurements

Avery Guild-Bingham will present these slides during the 9th Annual AMS Technical Exchange meeting (virtual) held on Oct 6-7, 2021. Attendees include Aerial Measuring System staff and partners from US laboratories, as well as Aerial Radiation detection scientists from partner countries such as the UK, Germany, Switzerland, etc. Overall support provided by NA-81, Office of Nuclear Incident Policy and Cooperation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Problems and Countermeasures of River Management in the Process of Rapid Urbanization in China

The rapid process of urbanization has led to water pollution, reduction of space areas and channel deposition. However, current river protection and management levels are not suitable for city development level and human demand. Therefore, these problems have not yet been solved. China is still in an era of rapid urbanization, which means that the influence of urbanization in rivers will increase in the future—and the task of river protection and management will be more arduous. In order to meet the challenges and opportunities brought by urbanization and promote the sustainable use and management of river, this study puts forward relevant suggestions on river protection and management, such as river management mechanisms, economic incentive instruments, technical support, transformation of development concepts, improving laws, regulations and policies and stimulating public participation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

Space Shuttle operational logistics plan

The Kennedy Space Center plan for logistics to support Space Shuttle Operations and to establish the related policies, requirements, and responsibilities are described. The Directorate of Shuttle Management and Operations logistics responsibilities required by the Kennedy Organizational Manual, and the self-sufficiency contracting concept are implemented. The Space Shuttle Program Level 1 and Level 2 logistics policies and requirements applicable to KSC that are presented in HQ NASA and Johnson Space Center directives are also implemented.

Botts, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Computational Fluid Dynamics at NASA Ames Research Center

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is beginning to play a major role in the aircraft industry of the United States because of the realization that CFD can be a new and effective design tool and thus could provide a company with a competitive advantage. It is also playing a significant role in research institutions, both governmental and academic, as a tool for researching new fluid physics, as well as supplementing and complementing experimental testing. In this presentation, some of the progress made to date in CFD at NASA Ames will be reviewed. The presentation addresses the status of CFD in terms of methods, examples of CFD solutions, and computer technology. In addition, the role CFD will play in supporting the revolutionary goals set forth by the Aeronautical Policy Review Committee established by the Office of Science and Technology Policy is noted. The need for validated CFD tools is also briefly discussed.

Kutler, Paul↗

NASA NTRS2008

2008 NASA Range Safety Annual Report

Welcome to the 2008 edition of the NASA Range Safety Annual Report. Funded by NASA Headquarters, this report provides a NASA Range Safety overview for current and potential range users. This year, along with full length articles concerning various subject areas, we have provided updates to standard subjects with links back to the 2007 original article. Additionally, we present summaries from the various NASA Range Safety Program activities that took place throughout the year, as well as information on several special projects that may have a profound impact on the way we will do business in the future. The sections include a program overview and 2008 highlights of Range Safety Training; Range Safety Policy; Independent Assessments and Common Risk Analysis Tools Development; Support to Program Operations at all ranges conducting NASA launch operations; a continuing overview of emerging Range Safety-related technologies; Special Interests Items that include recent changes in the ELV Payload Safety Program and the VAS explosive siting study; and status reports from all of the NASA Centers that have Range Safety responsibilities. As is the case each year, contributors to this report are too numerous to mention, but we thank individuals from the NASA Centers, the Department of Defense, and civilian organizations for their contributions. We have made a great effort to include the most current information available. We recommend that this report be used only for guidance and that the validity and accuracy of all articles be verified for updates. This is the third year we have utilized this web-based format for the annual report. We continually receive positive feedback on the web-based edition, and we hope you enjoy this year's product as well. It has been a very busy and productive year on many fronts as you will note as you review this report. Thank you to everyone who contributed to make this year a successful one, and I look forward to working with all of you in the years to come.

Lamoreaux, Richard W.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Current Status of Programs and Research within the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) is the world's longest-standing orbital debris research organization. It supports all aspects of international and US national policy-making related to the orbital environment and to spacecraft life cycle requirements. Representing more than just NASA projects, it is the United States' center of expertise in the field. The office continues to advance research in all aspects of orbital debris, including its measurement, modeling, and risk assessment for both orbital and ground safety concerns. This presentation will highlight current activities and recent progress in all aspects of the ODPO's mission.

Bacon, Jack↗

NASA NTRS2021

Integrating Inland and Coastal Water Quality Data for Actionable Knowledge

Water quality measures for inland and coastal waters are available as discrete samples from professional and volunteer water quality monitoring programs and higher-frequency, near-continuous data from automated in situ sensors. Water quality parameters also are estimated from model outputs and remote sensing. The integration of these data, via data assimilation, can result in a more holistic characterization of these highly dynamic ecosystems, and consequently improve water resource management. It is becoming common to see combinations of these data applied to answer relevant scientific questions. Yet, methods for scaling water quality data across regions and beyond, to provide actionable knowledge for stakeholders, have emerged only recently, particularly with the availability of satellite data now providing global coverage at high spatial resolution. In this paper, data sources and existing data integration frameworks are reviewed to give an overview of the present status and identify the gaps in existing frameworks. We propose an integration framework to provide information to user communities through the the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) AquaWatch Initiative. This aims to develop and build the global capacity and utility of water quality data, products, and information to support equitable and inclusive access for water resource management, policy and decision making.

Ghada Y.H. El Serafy↗

NASA NTRS2023

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Remediation

This report describes a cost-benefit analysis of approaches for debris remediation, which is defined as any action taken to reduce the risks posed by orbital debris by moving, removing, or reusing it. A better understanding of the near-term costs and benefits of the different approaches to remediation can support decision-making about R&D investment and policy creation in this area.

Thomas J. Colvin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cost Benefit Analysis of Space Debris Remediation

These slides provide a high-level summary of a cost-benefit analysis of approaches for debris remediation, which is defined as any action taken to reduce the risks posed by orbital debris by moving, removing, or reusing it. A better understanding of the near-term costs and benefits of the different approaches to remediation can support decision-making about R&D investment and policy creation in this area.

Tom Colvin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Updated Human Mars Ascent Vehicle Concept in Support of NASA's Strategic Analysis Cycle 2021

NASA’s Artemis program has brought significant change to the agency’s human exploration strategy over the last several years. To better align with these policy changes, updates to several key ground rules and assumptions have been made to better support Strategic Analysis Cycle 2021 (SAC21). Of the changes, two in particular have had significant impact on the design of the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV): the desire for minimal surface infrastructure and reduced technology investments in support of initial human missions to Mars. As a result, recent designs for the MAV are based on a nitrogen tetroxide (NTO) and mono-methyl hydrazine (MMH) two stage propulsion system. The vehicle supports two crew members from the surface up to 84 hours nominally. This paper presents further details of the current MAV reference design used in NASA’s SAC21, including descriptions of the operations, configuration, subsystem design, and vehicle mass summary. Additional detail is also provided on rational that drove specific design changes since the last MAV concept, published in 2019.

Exploration↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Solar Influencer Next Door: Predicting Low-Income Solar Referrals and Leads

Increasing the adoption of solar among low-to-moderate income (LMI) households remains an important policy goal because of its promise to simultaneously reduce energy burden and support the just distribution of benefits of renewable energy. However, scaling LMI solar remains challenging due to affordability and access issues. Most existing LMI adoption has occurred under public-funded programs, highlighting the importance of increasing the cost-effectiveness of these programs at scale. We develop a new household-level data set on LMI solar lead acquisition, referrals, and adoption to understand the processes through which LMI solar uptake has occurred in California. Then, we develop models to predict two sub-mechanisms in the solar adoption process: whether an otherwise qualified lead becomes "lost" i.e. non-responsive to outreach and, for existing clients, whether they refer solar to others. For the program analyzed, participants received their solar system at no cost, which deemphasizes economic drivers of solar adoption and could differ from other program experiences. Both models substantially improved the accuracy of prediction relative to a baseline. Overall, we find that peer effects and solar economics are important to predicting referrals, and household demographic factors in lead loss prediction. Finally, we find that referrals are both the highest quality and largest source of LMI solar leads, providing a promising mechanism to expand LMI programs further.

customer acquisition costs↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Load Shedding as Part of Primary Frequency Response To Support Networked Microgrid Operations

Global changes in the deployment of distributed energy resources, control and communications technologies, business models, and regulatory policy are increasing the operational options for future distribution systems. One such option is the coordinated operation of distributed resources to form microgrids and networks of microgrids to support traditional bulk power systems during normal operations and critical end-use loads during outages. While individual standalone microgrids have been extensively studied and deployed, the coordinated operation of networked microgrids is operationally more challenging due to the dynamic boundaries and changing mix of generation resources. Here, this paper presents a method of using a distributed control architecture to support primary frequency response in networked microgrids operations. The support of primary frequency response is accomplished using the Open Field Message Bus reference architecture and Grid Friendly Appliance controllers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen Policies on Uttar Pradesh's Power Sector Future

This report is part of a broader program focused on supporting Indian states with long-term power system planning. More information about this program can be found at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's "Supporting India's States With Renewable Energy Integration" web page at https://www.nrel.gov/international/india-renewable-energy-integration.html. The power sector in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, is poised to transform over the next few decades due to a combination of national and state-level policies impacting both the supply and demand of electricity. The Government of Uttar Pradesh has policies and plans to develop in-state solar PV, pumped storage hydropower, and green hydrogen. Power system policymakers and utilities in Uttar Pradesh are faced with the challenges of planning a system that incorporates increasing amounts of renewable energy and storage resources, meets rising electricity demand due to economic development and green hydrogen production, and satisfies operational and reliability requirements. To support these various objectives, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), RMI, and the Uttar Pradesh New and Renewable Energy Development Agency (UPNEDA) evaluated the least-cost pathways for the state's power sector through 2050. NREL developed a capacity expansion model that identifies investment and operational decisions for every year (2024-2050) for all of India, with detailed representation for the state of Uttar Pradesh, which can provide a framework for recurring planning studies. The main insights from this study can also help inform policy development and investment decisions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Organizational and psychological measures for data center energy efficiency: barriers and mitigation strategies

Abstract It was last estimated that in 2020, data centers comprised approximately 2% of total US electricity consumption, with an estimated annual growth rate of 4%. As our country increasingly relies on information technology (IT), our data centers (DCs) will need to increase their energy efficiency (EE) to stabilize their energy consumption. The task of studying EE in DCs is complicated by the interconnected nature of humans and mission-critical technical systems. Moreover, the literature tends to focus on technology solutions such as improvements to IT equipment, cooling infrastructure, and software, without addressing organizational and psychological drivers. Our research demystifies the complex interactions between humans and DCs, by asking What non-technical barriers impede EE investment decision-making and/or implementing energy management strategies? To begin to answer this question, we perform a literature review of 86 resources, ranging from peer-reviewed journal publications to handbooks. We also consider related fields such as organizational behavioral management and energy intensive buildings. We develop a public Zotero library, perform content coding, and complete a rudimentary network analysis. Our findings from the literature review suggest that (1) technological solutions are abundant in the literature but fall short of providing practical guidance on the pitfalls of implementation, (2) making energy efficiency a priority at the executive level of organizations will be largely ineffective if the IT and facilities staff are not directly incentivized to increase EE, and (3) there is minimal current understanding of how the individual psychologies of IT and facilities staff affect EE implementation in DCs. In the next phase of our research, we plan to interview data center operators/experts to ground-truth our literature findings and collaboratively design decarbonization policy solutions that target organizational structure, empower individual staff, and foster a supportive external market.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗