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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Successful prediction of tokamak transport in the L-mode regime

A long standing shortfall in the predicted L-mode edge energy transport by reduced quasi-linear models of gyrokinetic turbulent transport has been resolved. The improved model TGLF-SAT2 has higher fidelity to gyrokinetic simulations of the electron-scale contribution to the electron energy transport and the ion-scale flux surface shape dependence of energy transport. The success of TGLF-SAT2 in predicting the L-mode and Ohmic edge profiles is critical to whole pulse simulation and opens the door to prediction of the H-mode power threshold.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation of prediction capability of operating space for plasma initiation in MAST-U

DYON is a plasma initiation modelling code that solves the differential equation system of the full circuit equations (plasma current, active coil currents and eddy currents in full passive structures) and 0D global energy and particle balance equations (Kim 2022 Nucl. Fusion 62 126012). In order to test the capability of the full electromagnetic plasma initiation model to predict individual discharges in experiments and thus the operating space in the device, a dedicated experimental database was built in MAST-U by scanning the prefilled gas pressure p 0 and the induced loop voltage V loop . In the experimental operating space of p 0 and V loop the lower and the upper limits of p 0 are determined by the plasma breakdown failure and the plasma burn-through failure, respectively. The lower limit of V loop is determined by the plasma burn-through failure. By directly reading the control room data used in each discharge (i.e. currents in the solenoid, poloidal field coils, and toroidal field coils, p 0 , and gas puffing rate), the full electromagnetic DYON consistently predicted the failed breakdown, failed burn-through, and successful plasma initiation discharges in the experimental database, demonstrating its capability to predict the operating space for inductive plasma initiation. The Paschen curve calculated with the effective connection length in MAST-U indicates a much higher p 0 required for plasma breakdown than the experimental data, indicating that individual field line evaluation is necessary to calculate the quantitative requirements for Townsend breakdown. The demonstration in this paper shows that the full electromagnetic DYON could be a useful simulation tool to assess the feasibility of inductive plasma initiation and to optimise operating scenarios in future devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

WEST L-mode record long pulses guided by predictions using Integrated Modeling

A new record was set on the WEST Tokamak, designed to operate long duration plasmas in a tungsten (W) environment, with an injected energy of 1.15 GJ and a plasma duration 364s. Scenario development was supported by integrated modeling using the High Fidelity Plasma Simulator (HFPS), the European IMAS-coupled version of JETTO/JINTRAC, which integrates physics-driven modules into a unified framework. In particular, a reduced model for Lower-Hybrid heating and Current-Drive (LHCD) and the quasi-linear turbulent transport model TGLF are crucial for long pulses predictions up to the Last Closed Flux Surface (LCFS). Using this workflow, a 100 s reference discharge was modeled and plasma kinetic profiles and loop voltage were quantitatively well matched. In preparation for the recent long duration experiments, non-inductive current-drive actuators (I P , n e , P LHCD ) were varied to determine the operational domain going towards fully non-inductive discharges. In particular, decreasing the plasma current is shown to ease the access to such conditions, with a careful monitoring of (n e , P LHCD ) to avoid machine limitations. In addition, post-prediction experiments conducted within the investigated parameter range validated the predicted dependencies and were shown to be in quantitative agreement. Exploratory work on the use of ECCD for MHD stability purpose is also introduced.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-machine validation of plasma initiation modelling and prospects for future devices: Predicting plasma initiation using only hardware design and control room input data

This paper reports on the generic prediction capability of full electromagnetic plasma initiation modelling with DYON, which was carried out for the first time in fusion research by the joint modelling of the International Tokamak Physics Activity—Integrating Operation Scenario group. The following devices were included in the experiment database: VEST (spherical torus, copper coils, Stainless steel wall, R/a = 0.3 m/0.2 m, V v = 3.7 m 3 ), MAST-U (spherical torus, copper coils, C wall, R/a = 0.7 m/0.5 m, V v = 55 m 3 ), EAST (conventional tokamak, superconducting coils, metallic wall, R/a = 1.85 m/0.5 m, V v = 38 m 3 ), DIII-D (conventional tokamak, copper coils, C wall, R/a = 1.67 m/0.65 m, V v = 35 m 3 ), and KSTAR (conventional tokamak, superconducting coils, C wall, R/a = 1.8 m/0.5 m, V v = 55 m 3 ). Despite the different hardware features of the devices, the required operating spaces of the loop voltage induction and prefill gas pressure for inductive plasma initiation in each device were successfully reproduced by the predictive simulations with DYON using only the individual hardware design and the control room input data for each discharge. This successful validation across multiple machines demonstrates that the full electromagnetic DYON modelling can capture the essential physics of inductive plasma initiation. The simulation settings commonly employed for all modelling and the modifications necessary to account for the discrepancies between individual devices are reported. Predictions for ITER based on the multi-machine validation indicate that a wide range of prefill gas pressures exists for the Townsend breakdown and the plasma burn-through (0.01–1.5 mPa).

DYON↗
DOE OSTI2026

Variations in lithium vapor cave performance predictions due to radial transport and recycling assumptions

The lithium vapor cave is a detached divertor design that uses a single private flux region baffle to contain a dense cloud of lithium vapor to dissipate heat flux. Plasma flows are created via fuel gas puffing in order to minimize lithium contamination of the main plasma. Significant modeling using the 2D edge code SOLPS-ITER has already been performed, predicting that sufficient target heat flux reductions (q$^{max}_{Target}$ MW m −2 ) with ( $n$ Li /$n$ e ) LCFS < 0.05 is possible in a case with 90 MW m −2 unmitigated heat flux in NSTX-U. Low heat flux and low upstream concentration was found with a variety of combinations of divertor geometries, target recycling coefficients, upstream plasma parameters, lithium evaporation locations and deuterium fueling locations, with variations in performance found for each design choice. However, the most universal uncertainty of SOLPS-ITER simulations has until now remained unaddressed systematically, namely the cross-field anomalous particle and heat diffusivities. This article aims to bound the uncertainty in lithium concentration prediction as a result of the assumed deuterium cross-field transport and recycling. For the simulations presented here, a factor of 2.1 increase in the upstream lithium density prediction across a factor of four decrease to the assumed deuterium radial particle diffusivity is found. This result is compared across different assumed deuterium recycling coefficients, known to reduce with lithium injection. Upstream lithium density is found to vary by a factor of 2.4 across a feasible range of recycling coefficients at similar $n$$^{OMP,sep}_{e}$.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transferring predictions of formation energy across lattices of increasing size*

In this study, we show the transferability of graph convolutional neural network (GCNN) predictions of the formation energy of the nickel-platinum solid solution alloy across atomic structures of increasing sizes. The original dataset was generated with the large-scale atomic/molecular massively parallel simulator using the second nearest-neighbor modified embedded-atom method empirical interatomic potential. Geometry optimization was performed on the initially randomly generated face centered cubic crystal structures and the formation energy has been calculated at each step of the geometry optimization, with configurations spanning the whole compositional range. Using data from various steps of the geometry optimization, we first trained our open-source, scalable implementation of GCNN called HydraGNN on a lattice of 256 atoms, which accounts well for the short-range interactions. Using this data, we predicted the formation energy for lattices of 864 atoms and 2048 atoms, which resulted in lower-than-expected accuracy due to the long-range interactions present in these larger lattices. We accounted for the long-range interactions by including a small amount of training data representative for those two larger sizes, whereupon the predictions of HydraGNN scaled linearly with the size of the lattice. Therefore, our strategy ensured scalability while reducing significantly the computational cost of training on larger lattice sizes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing dimensionality prediction in hybrid metal halides via feature engineering and class-imbalance mitigation

We present a machine learning (ML) framework for predicting the structural dimensionality of hybrid metal halides (HMHs), including organic-inorganic perovskites, using a combination of chemically-informed feature engineering and advanced class-imbalance handling techniques. This study is motivated by the small and highly imbalanced nature of experimentally available HMH datasets, which limits the applicability and reliability of conventional ML approaches. The dataset, consisting of 494 HMH structures, is highly imbalanced across dimensionality classes (0D, 1D, 2D, 3D), posing significant challenges to predictive modeling. To mitigate this limitation, the dataset was augmented to 1336 samples using the synthetic minority oversampling technique, enabling improved learning of underrepresented dimensionality classes while preserving chemically meaningful feature relationships. We developed interaction-based descriptors designed to capture coupled steric and polarity effects relevant to dimensionality prediction, which are not readily captured by standard single-parameter or composition-only descriptors. These descriptors are integrated into a multi-stage workflow combining feature selection, ensemble stacking, and performance optimization. Our approach significantly improves F1-scores for underrepresented classes, achieving robust cross-validation performance across all dimensionalities. This work demonstrates a generalizable strategy for extracting reliable and interpretable structure–dimensionality relationships from limited experimental data, enabling pre-synthesis screening of organic cations and providing a practical blueprint for small-data ML in hybrid materials systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy metric prediction for double insertion mutants via the RoseNet deep learning framework

Studying the structural and functional implications of protein mutations is an important task in computational biology and bioinformatics. We leverage our previously proposed RoseNet neural network architecture to predict energy metrics of proteins with double amino acid insertions or deletions (InDels). We train models on previously generated benchmark datasets containing the exhaustive double InDel mutations for three proteins, as well as an additional three proteins for which ∼145k random mutants, each with two InDels, have been generated. We expand on our previous work by evaluating three additional proteins and analyzing domain features that impact the prediction capabilities of RoseNet. These features include InDels into secondary structures and the solvent accessible surface area (SASA) scores of the residues. We uncover further evidence to support that RoseNet has a higher proficiency of generalizing to unseen residue combinations than unseen insertion positions. We also observe that RoseNet produces higher-quality predictions when inserting into a β-sheet over an α-helix. Additionally, when the insertions fall in an area of high SASA, RoseNet often displays better performance than inserting into areas of low SASA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of curation errors in the PDBBind Database on machine learning predictions of protein–protein binding affinity

The PDBBind database has been widely utilized for the computational prediction of protein–protein binding affinities. While the accuracy of the PDBBind-curated equilibrium dissociation constants (K D ) has been reported for the protein–ligand subset of the PDBBind database, the curation accuracy has not been reported for the protein–protein subset. Here, we present a detailed manual analysis for the subset of PDBBind records with PubMed Central Open Access primary publications and find that ~19% of these records had K D values that were not supported by their primary publications. The impact of these putative curation errors on the machine learning-based prediction of K D from experimental protein–protein 3D structures was evaluated and correcting the curation errors improved the Pearson correlation coefficient between measured and random forest-predicted log 10 (K D ) values by ~8 percentage points. This finding underscores the importance of dataset accuracy for computational modelling and highlights the need for more stringent curation processes when extracting information from the scientific literature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting the Galactic population of free-floating planets from realistic initial conditions

ABSTRACT We present the first prediction for the mass distribution function of Galactic free-floating planets (FFPs) that aims to accurately include the relative contributions of multiple formation pathways and stellar populations. We derive our predicted distribution from dedicated simulations of planet birth, growth, migration, and ejection around circumbinary systems and extend these results to also include the contributions from single and wide binary systems. Our resulting FFP mass distribution shows several distinct features, including a strong peak at ${\sim} 8\, {\rm M}_{\oplus }$ arising from the transition between pebble and gas accretion regimes and a trough at ${\sim} 1\, {\rm M}_{\oplus }$ due to the shift in the dominant ejection process from planet–planet scattering to ejection through interactions with stars in circumbinary systems. We find that interactions with the central binary in close circumbinary systems are likely the dominant progenitor for FFPs more massive than Earth, leading to a steep power-law dependence in mass that agrees well with existing observations. In contrast, we find planet–planet scattering events in single and wide binary systems likely produce the majority of planets at Mars mass and below, resulting in a shallower power-law dependence. Our results suggest that existing extrapolations into the sub-terrestrial mass range may significantly overestimate the true FFP abundance. The features we predict in the mass distribution of FFPs will be detectable by upcoming space-based microlensing surveys and, if observed, will provide key insight into the origins of FFPs and the environments in which they form.

Coleman, Gavin A. L. (ORCID:0000000151118963)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental and ecological signals predict food shortages for subtropical populations of Australian flying foxes, reservoirs of Hendra virus

Food availability determines where and how animals use space across a landscape and, therefore, affects the risk of encounters leading to zoonotic spillover. This relationship is evident in Australian flying foxes (Pteropus spp.; fruit bats), where acute food shortages precede clusters of Hendra virus spillovers. Using machine learning, we predicted months of food shortages from climatological and ecological covariates (1996–2022) in subtropical Australia. Overall accuracy in predicting months of low food availability on a test set from 2018 up to 2022 reached 93.33 and 92.59% based on climatological and bat-level features, respectively. Seasonality and the Oceanic El Niño Index were the most important environmental features, while the number of bats in rescue centres and their body weights were the most important bat-level features. These models support predictive signals up to nine months in advance, facilitating action to mitigate spillover risk.

Pteropus↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting Open Quantum Dynamics with Data-Informed Quantum-Classical Dynamics

We introduce a data-informed quantum-classical dynamics (DIQCD) approach for predicting the evolution of an open quantum system. The equation of motion in DIQCD is a Lindblad equation with a flexible, time-dependent Hamiltonian that can be optimized to fit sparse and noisy data from local observations of an extensive open quantum system. We demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of DIQCD for both experimental and simulated quantum devices. We show that DIQCD can predict entanglement dynamics of ultracold molecules (calcium fluoride) in optical tweezer arrays. DIQCD also successfully predicts carrier mobility in organic semiconductors (rubrene) with accuracy comparable to nearly exact numerical methods.

Lindblad equation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting phase transitions in PbTi⁢O 3 using zentropy through quasiharmonic phonon calculations

According to x-ray diffraction (XRD) measurements, PbTi⁢O 3 undergoes a phase transition from a tetragonal ferroelectric (FE) phase to a cubic paraelectric phase at 763 K. However, x-ray absorption fine-structure (XAFS) measurements indicate that PbTi⁢O 3 is locally tetragonal even after the phase transition. The difference in these results is because XAFS measurements can probe local features of a structure, while XRD averages over such local features. For both measurements to be consistent, PbTi⁢O 3 is macroscopically cubic but locally tetragonal after the phase transition. Despite this, most models, such as the Landau-Ginsburg-Devonshire theory and effective Hamiltonians, are still unable to explain this phenomenon. Moreover, these methods involve model parameters fitted to experimental or theoretical data and do not consider other tetragonal configurations, such as domain walls, to predict the phase transition. In our previous study, we used our zentropy approach to predict the phase transition by considering the tetragonal FE ground-state configuration and the tetragonal 90° and 180° domain wall configurations with their total energies at 0 K. Here, in this paper, the Helmholtz energies of the three configurations are obtained from density functional theory calculations through energy-volume curves and phonon calculations. The predicted phase transition temperature using the meta-GGA 𝑟 2⁢ SCAN and revised multiplicities of configurations is 716 K, showing good agreement with the experimental value of 763 K.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Testing hadronic-model predictions of depth of maximum of air-shower profiles and ground-particle signals using hybrid data of the Pierre Auger Observatory

We test the predictions of hadronic interaction models regarding the depth of maximum of air-shower profiles, X max , and ground-particle signals in water-Cherenkov detectors at 1000 m from the shower core, S ( 1000 ) , using the data from the fluorescence and surface detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The test consists of fitting the measured two-dimensional ( S ( 1000 ) , X max ) distributions using templates for simulated air showers produced with hadronic interaction models pos-, et--04, 2.3d and leaving the scales of predicted X max and the signals from hadronic component at ground as free-fit parameters. The method relies on the assumption that the mass composition remains the same at all zenith angles, while the longitudinal shower development and attenuation of ground signal depend on the mass composition in a correlated way. The analysis was applied to 2239 events detected by both the fluorescence and surface detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory with energies between 10 18.5 eV to 10 19.0 eV and zenith angles below 60°. We found, that within the assumptions of the method, the best description of the data is achieved if the predictions of the hadronic interaction models are shifted to deeper X max values and larger hadronic signals at all zenith angles. Given the magnitude of the shifts and the data sample size, the statistical significance of the improvement of data description using the modifications considered in the paper is larger than 5 σ even for any linear combination of experimental systematic uncertainties. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction: structure ranking methods

A seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction has been organized by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre. The results are presented in two parts, with this second part focusing on methods for ranking crystal structures in order of stability. The exercise involved standardized sets of structures seeded from a range of structure generation methods. Participants from 22 groups applied several periodic DFT-D methods, machine learned potentials, force fields derived from empirical data or quantum chemical calculations, and various combinations of the above. In addition, one non-energy-based scoring function was used. Results showed that periodic DFT-D methods overall agreed with experimental data within expected error margins, while one machine learned model, applying system-specific AIMnet potentials, agreed with experiment in many cases demonstrating promise as an efficient alternative to DFT-based methods. For target XXXII, a consensus was reached across periodic DFT methods, with consistently high predicted energies of experimental forms relative to the global minimum (above 4 kJ mol −1 at both low and ambient temperatures) suggesting a more stable polymorph is likely not yet observed. The calculation of free energies at ambient temperatures offered improvement of predictions only in some cases (for targets XXVII and XXXI). Several avenues for future research have been suggested, highlighting the need for greater efficiency considering the vast amounts of resources utilized in many cases.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Performance Bounds Prediction in Quantum Computing With Unstable Noise

Quantum computing has significantly advanced in recent years, boasting devices with hundreds of quantum bits (qubits), hinting at its potential quantum advantage over classical computing. Yet, noise in quantum devices poses significant barriers to realizing this supremacy. Understanding noise’s impact is crucial for reproducibility and application reuse; moreover, the next-generation quantum-centric supercomputing essentially requires efficient and accurate noise characterization to support system management (e.g., job scheduling), where ensuring correct functional performance (i.e., fidelity) of jobs on available quantum devices can even be higher-priority than traditional objectives. However, noise fluctuates over time, even on the same quantum device, which makes predicting the computational bounds for on-the-fly noise is vital. Noisy quantum simulation can offer insights but faces efficiency and scalability issues. Here, in this work, we propose a data-driven workflow, namely QuBound, to predict computational performance bounds. It decomposes historical performance traces to isolate noise sources and devises a novel encoder to embed circuit and noise information processed by a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. For evaluation, we compare QuBound with a state-of-the-art learning-based predictor, which only generates a single performance value instead of a bound. Experimental results show that the result of the existing approach falls outside of performance bounds, while all predictions from our QuBound with the assistance of performance decomposition better fit the bounds. Moreover, QuBound can efficiently produce practical bounds for various circuits with over 106 speedup over simulation; in addition, the range from QuBound is over 10× narrower than the state-of-the-art analytical approach.

Li, Jinyang [George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting microstructurally sensitive fatigue‐crack path in WE43 magnesium using high‐fidelity numerical modeling and three‐dimensional experimental characterization

Abstract Microstructurally small fatigue‐crack growth in polycrystalline materials is highly three‐dimensional due to sensitivity to local microstructural features (e.g., grains). One requirement for modeling microstructurally sensitive crack propagation is establishing the criteria that govern crack evolution, including crack deflection. Here, a high‐fidelity finite‐element modeling framework is used to assess the performance and validity of various crack‐growth criteria, including slip‐based metrics (e.g., fatigue‐indicator parameters), as potential criteria for predicting three‐dimensional crack paths in polycrystalline materials. The modeling framework represents cracks as geometrically explicit discontinuities and involves voxel‐based remeshing, mesh‐gradation control, and a crystal‐plasticity constitutive model. The predictions are compared to experimental measurements of WE43 magnesium samples subject to fatigue loading, for which three‐dimensional grain structures and fatigue‐crack surfaces were measured post‐mortem using near‐field high‐energy x‐ray diffraction microscopy and x‐ray computed tomography. Findings from this work are expected to improve the predictive capabilities of simulations involving microstructurally small fatigue‐crack growth in polycrystalline materials.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using leaf and stomatal traits to predict biomass production and water use efficiency in Populus

Climate change is reshaping ecosystems, driving plants to adapt through leaf-trait plasticity that reflects strategies for growth and water use. Predicting biomass production and intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) remains challenging because of genetic, taxonomic, and environmental variability. Here, we used eastern cottonwood and Populus hybrids as a model system to test whether easily measurable leaf traits can serve as reliable predictors of performance, and whether adding stomatal and biochemical traits improves predictive power. Across two field sites in Mississippi, leaf mass per area (LMA), biomass production, iWUE, leaf area, and foliar nitrogen ( N %) differed significantly among taxa and sites, while other traits were conserved. Factorial analysis of mixed data (FAMD) revealed distinct clustering of taxa and sites, indicating coordinated variation among leaf and stomatal traits. Pairwise correlations highlighted fundamental trade-offs, with biomass positively related to LMA and petiole length but negatively associated with iWUE, N %, and carbon isotopic ratios (δ 13 C). Leaf temperature and leaf angle varied among taxa and were significantly correlated with LMA and petiole length, suggesting mechanisms of heat dissipation and leaf movability that link simple traits to gas exchange and productivity. Weighted multiple linear regression models explained 80%–91% of variation in biomass production and iWUE. Models using only LMA, petiole length, and stomatal metrics performed nearly as well as those incorporating N %, and δ 13 C, with complex traits adding approximately 10% explanatory power. These results demonstrate that simple morphological traits capture integrated functional trade-offs, while complex traits refine predictions. This tiered approach provides an efficient framework for selecting high-yielding, water-efficient genotypes of Populus and other hardwood species, offering practical pathways to enhance carbon uptake and iWUE under climate change.

biomass production↗